凈零排放路徑-全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型展望2023-英

PAT

H

WAYTO

NET-ZEROEMISSIONSEnergy

Transition

Outlook2023CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

2023FOREWORDComparing

net

zero

with

our

present

energy

systemSciencetells

usthatwe

mustachieve

anet-zero

energysystemby

2050

to

limit

global

warmingto

1.

5degrees.Withemissionsatrecord

levels

andsetto

climb

higher

beforepeakingnextyear,

thechancesofhittingthattargetare

now,

admittedly,remote

–butnotimpossible.UNITGWGWMt/yr%20221

20095097PNZ

in

2033Solar

capacity

(incl.

off-grid)Wind

capacity

(incl.

off-grid)Hydrogen

(incl.

derivatives)Share

of

EVs

in

passenger

?eet9

1004

9003208

times

more

solar

installed5

times

more

wind

installed3

times

more

hydrogenThisPathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions(PNZ)

iseffectivelyablue-printforhowthattargetcanstillbehitwithintheboundsoftechnicalandpoliticalfeasibility,andwithinthecontextofmainstreameconomicgrowthforecasts.However,

ourPNZ

isalsoablueprintforhowto

progresstowardsthetargeteventhoughwe

may

notquitereachit.Everytenthofadegreeofwarmingcounts,astheIPCC

hasoutlineddramatically.electricity

productionby

2050,

with21

timesmoreelectricityfromsolarPVand15

timesmorefromwindrelativeto

today’slevels.Coalexitsthepowersystemaltogether,

whileoil

andgasdeclinesby

sometwo

thirds.Thereisconsiderablymorecarboncaptureandremovalbutthosetechnologiesmainlydealwithresidualemissionsfromsectorsandregionswheredecarbonizationisexceptionallychallenging.1.2%2826%One

?fth

of

the

global

vehicle

?eet

is

EVCapture

capacity

reaches

1.6

GtCO2CO

captured

through

CCSMtCO

/yr1

60022UNIT2022PNZ

in

2050Oil

demandEJ/yrEJ/yrEJ/yrPWh/yrGW176154159295956Oil

falls

by

two-thirdsI

use

the

word

‘blueprint’

advisedly.

Our

PNZ

details

how

energytechnologies

work

together

ina

pathway

to

net-zero

emissionsby

mid-century.

A

blueprint

istypically

the

starting

point

forproject

scheduling

and

also

contains

the

details

for

requestingpermits.

We

address

those

two

issues

in

thisreport.

Firstly,

onscheduling,

we

show

how

time

is

of

the

essence

—

immediate,pragmatic

action

is

required.

Moreover,

we

?nd

that

almost

allof?cial

net-zero

ambitions

that

have

been

legislated,

proclaimed,or

included

in

policy

documentsneed

to

be

delivered

roughly10

years

ahead

ofstated

dates.

Secondly,

in

our

discussion

ofenabling

policy,

we

show

how

tough

choices,

including

bansand

mandates,

are

unavoidable.

We

single

out

permitting

ofnew

infrastructure,

including

renewable

sites

and

transmissionand

distribution

grids,

as

the

key

bottleneck.Net-zero

scenariosareoften

airilydismissedas‘unaffordable’.Ourresultsshowtheopposite.WhileourPNZ

entailsa5%upliftin

energyexpenditurerelativeto

our‘mostlikely’energyfuture,we

?ndthatthisstillrepresentsasmallerpercentageofglobalGDPin

2050

thanenergyexpendituredoestoday.Thatinsightshouldstiffen

theresolveofhigh-incomeregionsto

investin

afastertransitionin

low-incomeregions.And,forall

decisionmakers,itthrowsintosharpreliefthedifferencebetweenacleaner,

more-ef?cientenergysystemandaworldofmountingclimatedamageforgenerationsto

come.Gas

demandGas

falls

almost

as

far

as

oilCoal

demand1690%

less

coalGrid-connected

electricitySolar

capacity

(incl.

off-grid)Solar

grid

generationWind

capacity

(incl.

off-grid)Wind

grid

generationNuclear

capacity80Near-tripling

of

electricity

production28

times

more

solar

installed21

times

more

electricity

from

solar15

times

more

wind

installed15

times

more

electricity

from

windNear-tripling

of

nuclear

capacityAlmost

8

times

more

hydrogen1

2001.433

00030PWh/yrGW950214

20030PWh/yrGW390971

100760Hydrogen

(incl.

derivatives)Hydrogen

share

in

?nal

energyShare

of

EVs

in

passenger

?eetMt/yr%0.01%1.2%2812%83%6

4001

600%Transformationfrom

currentnegligible

levelsRemiEriksenCO

captured

through

CCS2MtCO

/yrOur

PNZ

is

nota

'burn

now,

pay

later'

scenario.

The

heavy

liftingis

done

by

accelerating

the

build-out

of

renewablesourcesandsimultaneouslycuttingfossilsources.Thenumbersshownalongsidethispagebearthisout.Most

notable

is

the

triplingof2GroupPresident

andCEODNVCO

captured

through

DACMtCO

/yr0.0122Fossil

fuelsElectricityFast

growers2CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

2023HIGHLIGHTS1.5°C

is

less

likely

than

ever,

staying

as

farbelow

2°C

as

possible

is

critical—

Net-negativeemissionsat6Gt/yr

between2050and2100

to

achieve1.5°C

posesasigni?cantriskanddependsonscalingofnascenttechnologieslike

directair

capture(DAC)

andbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)Sometechnologiesarepoweringahead,othersmust

scaledramatically—

Energyef?ciencyimprovementsneedto

bedoublecurrentlevels—

Anet-zero

energysystemby

2050

thatsecuresa1.5°C

warmingfutureremainsapossibility,butitsachievementishighlyimprobable—

SolarPVandelectricvehiclesare

scalingwell,settingapacecloseto

a1.5°C

trajectory—

Electricity

mustreach47%

oftheenergymixin

2050,

butthatisdependentonrapidgridextensionswhichare

alreadysubjectto

criticalpermittingandsupplychainbottlenecks—

Immediate,

permanentcuts

in

fossilfuelusearenecessaryto

keep

thehopeofreaching1.5°Calive.

Delayedactionaddsto

therisk—

Most

othertechnologies,includinghydrogenproductionandcarbonremoval,

are

laggingbehindthenecessaryscaling—

CO

emissionsare

expectedto

reachrecordlevels2in

2023,

butmustdeclineby

19

%alreadyby

2030—

Combustionoffossilfuelsmustfallby

78%

to2050,

enabled

byef?ciency

andfast

replacementofoil,

gas,andcoalby

renewableelectricity,hydrogen,

and

biofuels.

A

massivecarbon

captureandremovaleffort,

reaching8Gtin

2050,

isessentialto

compensatefortheremaining

CO2emissionsfromfossilfuels—

Given

the

present

increase

in

emissions,

all

plausiblenet-zero

pathwaysnowfactorin

an‘overshoot’ofemissionsbeyond2050

thatneedto

betackledby

netnegativeemissionstechnology.

(DNV’s—

Everyactionto

reduceemissionsandacceleratetransitionisimportant,asitiscrucialtostay

asfarbelow2°Caspossible—

Inthenextdecade,solarandwindcapacitymusttogetherincrease5-fold,whilestoragecapacitymustgrow

4-foldpathwayhasanovershootof310

GtCO

)23CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

2023HIGHLIGHTSAllregionsmust

decarbonizebeyondOECD

countries

in

the

early/mid

2040s,

Chinabefore

2050,

andrest

of

the

world

before

2060Policiesmust

forcedeepdecarbonizationinallsectors—

Mandatesandbansare

unavoidable,

especiallyforadrasticcutin

fossilfuelconsumption.Nonewcoal,

oil,

orgasisneeded;whatexistsin

current?eldsissuf?cientpresentambitions,butatdifferentspeeds—

To

reachglobalnetzero

in

2050,

high-incomeregionsandleadingdemandsectorsmustmovefurtherandfaster—

OurPNZ

ispredicatedontheUNFCCC’s

principleofcommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesfornet-zero.

Regionsdecarbonizeaccordingto

theircapabilities,whilebalancingotherSDGpriorities.GDPpercapitaisagoodproxyfortherequiredpaceoftransition—

Policyisthemain

lever

forafastertransition,andall

regionsandsectorsmustaccelerate—

Behaviouralshifts

are

neededfornetzero,

andsomeshifts

mustbemandated—

Thereisanurgentneedto

rethinkandestablishnewpolicies,withinternationalcooperationensuringownershipofactionsacrossall

countries—

Accelerationmusthappenin

acontextwhereveryfew

countriesare

ontrackto

achieveeven

theirpresentemissiontargets—

Asuf?cientlyhigh

costoncarbonisanecessityto

discourageunabatedfossilfuels—

Sectorsandindustrieswill

alsodecarbonizealongdifferingtimelines,withthepowersectorbeinga?rst

mover

reachingnetzero

in

2043—

High-incomecountriesmust?nanceinfrastructureanddecarbonizationprojectsin

low-incomecoun-triesandde-riskinvestments—

For

global

net

zero

in

2050,

all

regionsmust

achievetheir

net-zerotargets

earlier

thanstated

ambitions:COP28istakingplaceinthecontextof

globaldiscord—andinayearthatwillsetbothnewemissionsandtemperaturerecords.Consensusmaybedif?cult,butsolutionsforfasteractionareneeded.4DNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

2023CONTENTSForewordHighlights233.7

Technology

challengers3.8

Electricity3.9

Emissions202123255

Regionalroadmaps5

.1

North

America5.2

LatinAmerica38404142434445464748491

Introduction6783.10

Expenditures5.3

Europe1.1

IsNetZero

realistic?1.2

WhereistheactionforNetZero?5.4

Sub-SaharanAfrica5.5

MiddleEast

andNorth

Africa5.6

North

East

Eurasia5.7

GreaterChina5.8

IndianSubcontinent5.9

SouthEast

Asia5.10

OECD

Paci?c4

Sectoralroadmaps4.1

Road27282930313233343536372

Anet-zero

policy94.2

Aviation4.3

Maritime3

ThePathway111214161718194.4

Buildingsheating4.5

Ironandsteel4.6

Cement4.7

Petrochemicals4.8

Power3.1

Thetransformationoftheenergysystem3.2

Fossilfuels3.3

Solar3.4

Wind3.5

Othernon-fossilenergysources3.6

Hydrogen+ReferencesTheprojectteam50514.9

Hydrogen4.10

CCSandDACClickonthesectionyou

wantto

explore!5CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

20231

INTRODUCTIONAlthough

we

are

con?dent

that

we

have

struckarealistic

balance

betweenviable

technology

andpolicy,

the

pathway

we

de?ne

is

still

an

extremelychallenging

one,

and

there

are

undoubtedly

alter-native

routes

to

achieving

a

1.5°C

future.

In

itscontribution

to

the

IPCC’s

Sixth

Assessment

Report(AR6)

on

climate

change

(IPCC,

2022),

WorkingGroup

III

describes

no

less

than

230

pathwaysthat

align

with

a

1.5°C

future.

Many

other

energyforecasters

also

regularly

outline

their

vision

of

anet-zero

pathway.

Few,

if

any,

model

and

describea

pathway

to

net

zero

as

the

sum

of

differentiatedregional

and

sectoral

transitions,

as

we

do

in

thisreport.Despitetherapidlyunfolding

energytransitioncurrentlyunderway,

DNV’sEnergy

TransitionOutlook(ETO)

2023

?ndsthattheworldismost

likely

headedtowards

2.2°Cglobal

warmingby

210

0relativeto

pre-industriallevels.

Isitpossible,then,

to

acceleratethepaceof

thetransitionto

secureawarmingfuturein

line

withtheParis

Agreement?ThisreportdescribeswhatDNVbelieves

to

beaplausible

—butverychallenging

—pathway

to

achieve

net-zeroemissions(PNZ)

by

2050

andafuturewheretheglobal

average

temperatureincreaseislimited

to

1.5°C

by

theendof

thecentury.There

might

besome

diverging

views

on

assump-tions,

technology

choices,

and

adequate

policies,

butour

PNZ

and

all

these

pathways

point

to

the

urgencyand

the

scale

of

the

action

that

are

needed

to

curbthe

emissions

atthe

necessary

pace.

Strong

decisionsmust

betaken

now

if

we

are

to

reach

this

target,

andevery

delay

makes

the

task

more

challenging.ThispathwaydiffersmarkedlyfromDNV's'bestestimate'forecastofthemostlikely

energyfuturedescribedin

the2023

editionofourETO.

Readersshouldnotethatin

thereportwe

usetheterm‘ETOforecast’

to

referto

themostlikely

future,in

contrastto

aPNZ

future.Comparingourforecastwithapathwayto

netzero

allowsusto

placeadimensiononthescaleofthechangeneededto

achieveanenergytransitionthatdeliversa1.5°C

future.andwiththesametools.To

describethis‘tailored’transition,ourreportcomprisesseveralroadmapsforsectorsandregions,detailinghoweachwouldcontributein

ourPNZ.ETO

and

PNZ

—forecastvsback-castETO2023Our

'most

likely'

energytransition

forecastThe

focus

of

the

ETO

and

the

Pathway

to

Net

Zero

reportsThe

ETO

emissions

forecast

predicts

23

GtCO

of2Units:

Changeinaveragetemperaturewithrespect

topre-industriallevels(°C)annual

emission

in

2050,

showing

there

isa

big

gapto

be

closed

to

reach

net-zero

emissions

by

then.

So,indicating

warming

of

2.2°Chow

to

close

that

gap?

Most

of

the

CO

emissions2can

be

avoided

through

implementing

low-emissiontechnologies

in

the

energysystem.

There

are

technicalsolutions

that

need

massive

deployment

and

scale-up,such

as

renewable

energy,

storage,

grids,

hydrogen,and

carbon

capture.Other

technologiesmust

bescaled

down,

such

as

coal,

oil,

gas,

and

combustionengines.

These

actions

alone

will

be

insuf?cient,

andthere

will

also

be

a

need

to

deploy

signi?cantamountsof

carbon

removal

technologies.

These

could

benature-based

solutions

such

as

reducing

deforestationand

increasing

sequestration

in

biomass.

They

couldalso

be

technical

deployments

likedirect

air

capture.We

have

setoutto

de?ne,

model,anddescribeapathwaythatistechnicallyandpoliticallyfeasible,althoughwe

cautionthatourpathwaytests

theouterlimitsofpoliticalfeasibility.OurPNZ

reliesonexistingtechnologiesandtheirscale-up,andnotonuncertainscienti?candtechnologicalbreak-throughs.Itispoliticallyfeasiblein

thatitreliesonaproven

toolboxofpolicymeasuresandallowsforlow-incomeregionsto

implementthenecessarymeasureslaterthantheirhigh-incomecounterparts.Allsectors

willalsonotdecarbonizeatthesamepacePNZ

2023A

back-caston

how

toclose

the

gap

to

1.5°C6CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

20231

.1

IS

NET

ZERO

REALISTIC?Our

annual

ETO

forecast

(now

in

its7th

edition)

describes

the

energy

future

that

DNVconsiders

‘most-likely’

given

expected

economic,

technology

and

policy

developments.This

is

not

a

future

in

which

energy-

and

process-related

CO

emissions

reach

net

zero

in22050

—farfromit.Itis

logicalto

question,therefore,

whetherachieving

anet-zero

futureby

2050

is

atall

realistic.A

‘most

likely’

future

does

not

ruleout

other

possibletough.

Nothing

of

this

scale

has

ever

been

attempted.Their

successful

implementation

will

require

not

onlystrongcontributions

from

technology

and

?nance,

butan

extraordinary

step-up

in

energy,

climate,

industrial,andeconomicpoliciesalongwithbehaviouralchanges.

Moreover,

these

changes

and

emissionreductions

must

happen

simultaneously.

Alternatively,if

some

sectors

or

regions

underperform

in

relationto

the

decarbonization

roadmaps,

othersectors

orregions

will

have

to

frontload

their

transformations

toover-deliver

on

already-challenging

roadmaps.

Eachof

the

roadmaps

we

set

out

here

is

challenging;

theprobabilityofall

beingrealized

islow.

Ifby

‘realistic’we

meanaclearorbetter-than-evenchanceofachieving

something,

then

we

would

need

to

concedefutures.

In

our

view,

net-zero

CO

emissions

by

20502is

still

possible

to

achieve,

but

only

barely.It

willrequire

urgent

acceleration

of

targeted

policies

andsimultaneous

efforts

from

all

regions

andsectors.Considering

that

scale

ofeffort,

and

record

emissionsatpresent,

we

caution

that

achieving

net

zero

is

lesslikely

than

ever.

Nevertheless,

thisreport

outlineswhat

we

believe

to

be

a

possible,

albeitvery

narrow,pathway

to

net-zero

emissions.

It

includes

detailednet-zero

roadmaps

for

each

major

demandsector

andeach

of

the

ten

world

regions

covered

in

our

analysis.emissionshave

notyetpeaked,

that‘when’

seemsvery

unlikely

to

be2050.

However,

everytenthofadegree

of

global

warmingmatters

disproportionately.Climate

change

is

here

already,

driven

by

cumulativeemissionsthathave

alreadyforcedatemperatureincreasejustbeyond1°C

above

pre-industriallevels.Theimpactisvisibleto

all,

withdevastatingsocietalimplicationsandrisingeconomiclossesfeltworld-wide.From

thispointon,

even

relativelysmalladditionalincreasesin

temperaturegiveadditionallong-termconsequencesandrisktriggeringplan-etary

tippingpoints.Becauserisksandimpacts

pileup

extraordinarilyforwarmingabove

1.5°C,

therationalresponseissurelyto

expendextraordinaryeffort

nowandin

thecomingyearsto

preventaverydangerousfuture.Achieving

net

zero

by

2050

is

realistic

for

some

sectors,some

regions,

and

certain

countries;

but

that

will

not

besuf?cient

to

achieve

global

net

zero.As

some

sectorsand

regions

will

not

achieve

net

zero

by

2050,

otherswill

have

to

go

further

and

faster

by

strengthening

theirambitions

and

achieving

net

zero

before

2050

andnet-negative

emissions

by

2050.

Nations

and

sectorsthat

conceivably

can

move

faster

will

have

to

do

so.that

net-zero

CO

emissions

by

2050

is

unrealistic.2However,it

is

possible

and,

given

what

is

at

stake,it

isimperative

we

do

ourutmost

to

achieveit.DNV’s

contribution

lies

precisely

in

not

paintingarose-tinted

view

that

net-zero

emissions

is

easy

toachieve.

Instead,

we

providea

reality

check

on

howdif?cult

the

goal

really

is.

Isnet

zero

probable?

No.

Isitirresponsible

therefore

to

stilltalk

about

it?

Absolutelynot.

Science

hasdictated

a

target

and

the

rationalresponse

is

to

try

to

come

as

close

toit

as

possible.Ultimately,

atsome

point

in

the

future,

humanity

islikely

to

hit

net-zero

emissions

because

the

alternativeis

untenable—

i.e.

average

global

temperatures

willsimply

keep

rising.

Thequestion

therefore

is

not

if

netzero,

but

when?

From

where

we

are

now,

where

CO2Individually

and

collectively,

the

sectoral

roadmapsdescribed

in

thisreport

are

all

possible,

but

very7CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

20231.2

WHERE

IS

THE

ACTION

FOR

NET

ZERO?reversals,andsoon.Whilethesebarrierscollectivelyare

notsuf?cientto

preventanenergytransitionfromhappening,

they

are

certainly

hindering

a

fast

transition.Someofthesebarriersare

unnecessaryandshouldberemoved;

otherbarriersare

moresystemicallydif?cultto

address.commons,wherethecommonrestraintonemis-sionsrequiredto

protectthephysicsofourcommonatmosphereisunderminedby

countriesandotheractors

seekingto

maximizeshort-termgainsthroughemissions-intensiveactivities.Thatisrelatedto

‘thetragedyofhorizons’,

atermcoinedby

MarkCarney,formergovernoroftheBankofEngland,

to

describethecatastrophicimpactthatclimatechangewill

haveonfuturegenerationswhilenotingthatthecurrentgenerationhaslittle

incentiveto

?xit(Carney,

2015).For

many

decades,scientistshave

warnedabouttheriskof

climate

changeandpointedoutthenecessarymeasuresto

prevent

its

escalation.Nearconsensusamongscientists,assummarized

in

IPCC’s

Assessmentreports

andtheannual

COP

meetings,is

raisinganincreasinglybiggerred?ag.

UnitedNationsSecretary-GeneralAntónioGuterres’warningof

“CodeRed

for

humanity”leaves

nodoubt

asto

wherewe

are

headed.

TheClimateChange

2023:

Synthesis

Report(IPCC,

2023)

has

never

beenclearer

in

its

language

andmessage:“Climate

changeis

athreatto

human

well-beingandplanetaryhealth(ver

yhighcon?dence).

Thereis

arapidlyclosingwindow

of

opportunity

to

securealiveable

andsustainablefuturefor

all

(ver

yhigh

con?dence)”.Emissions

reduction

is

one

of

many

priorities

thatnations

face.

The

17

Sustainable

Development

Goals,with

climateaction

as

the

13th

goal,

clearly

pinpointmultiple,

urgent

global

priorities.

Yet,

research–e.g.

DNV’s

Future

of

SpaceshipEarth

report

(DNV,2016)

–

?nds

that

climateaction

isa

prerequisite

formeeting

many,

if

not

all,

of

the

other

SDGs.

Recently,a

UN

status

report

emphasized

that

climate-relateddisasters

are

infact

already

hindering

progresstowards

the

SDGs

(UNECOSOC,

2023).We

should

add

that

there

is

alsoa

tragic

lack

ofcomprehension

among

the

many

who

dismiss

anet-zero

energysystem

as

impossibly

disruptive

andexpensive.

We

show

in

thisreport

that

net

zero

is

notonly

achievable

with

the

technology

that

exists

today,but

it

delivers,

inshort

order,

anef?cient

and

cleanenergysystem

that

would

see

the

world

spendingconsiderably

less

on

energy

as

a

proportion

of

GDPthanit

does

today.

We

acknowledge

that

our

pathwayto

net

zero

does

not

solve

all

related

challenges,including

the

biodiversitycrisis

and

the

challengesassociatedwith

non-energy-related

SDGs,

includinga

just

transition.

But

our

pathway

will,

atthe

very

least,reduce

the

risks

of

climate

change

that

threaten

toderail

all

other

goals.Judging

from

the

ambitions

announced

by

politiciansand

the

deep

concerns

voiced

by

the

general

public,the

warnings

seem

to

be

heard.

But

those

ambitionsare

not

translating

into

programmaticactionfor

netzero,

with

very

few

exceptions.

Ata

time

when

theIPCC

is

calling

for

at

least

a

sixfold

increase

in

?nanceprovided

to

emissions

reductions

projects

by

2030,the

Climate

Tracker

world

map

(https://climateac-/)

is

still

devoid

of

the

colour

greendenotinga

country

that

is

‘1.5°C

Paris

compatible’.There

are

obvious

synergies

between

priorities

suchas

climateaction

(SDG

13),

affordable

and

cleanenergy

(SDG

7),

and

ensuring

good

health

and

well-being

(SDG

3),

for

example

reduced

air

pollution

incities

that

favour

cleanelectricity

over

coal.Othergoals

are

in

con?ict

with

climate

action,

e.g.

replacingtraditional

biomass

used

for

cooking

with

natural

gasto

avoid

indoor

air

pollution,

or

protecting

nature(SDG

14

and

SDG

15)

by

not

allowing

acreage

for

newrenewable

energy

build-out.What

explains

the

lack

of

progress?There

are

opposing

forces

and

many

barriers

to

theenergy

transition,

as

we

have

discussed

in

our

ETOpublications

(DNV,

2022;

DNV,

2023).

These

include,in

no

particular

order,

fossil-fuel

subsidies,

resistancefrom

vested

interests,

corruption,

short-termpriorities,un?t

regulatoryframeworks,

lack

of

global

cooperation,energysystem

inertia,

corporate

greenwashing,

policyWhile

climate

action

should

always

betop

of

mind,

itshould

not

always

have

priority;

holistic

planning

andpolicymaking

is

needed

to

carefully

manage

dilemmas.Yet

further

complicating

policymaking

are

the

'twintragedies'.

The

?rst

of

these

is

the

tragedyof

theNet

zero

isa

race

toa

cleaner,

moreef?cient

energy

system

that

costs

less

asa

percentage

of

GDP8CONTENTSPOLICYPATHWAYSECTORAL

ROADMAPSREGIONAL

ROADMAPSDNV

Pathway

to

Net-Zero

Emissions

20232

A

NE

T-ZERO

POLICYregulations.Inaddition,administrativeproceduresto

accessgovernmentsupportneedsimpli?cation.Supply-sideanddemand-sidesupport

areneededtoadvancetechnologicalchangeatscaleandstimulatemarketsfornet-zero

alignedproductsandbehaviour.FIGURE

2.1Policy

factors

triggering

the

pathwayReaching

the1.5°Cgoalis

?r