韓國(guó)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究院（KIEP）：評(píng)估東盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程以及韓國(guó)關(guān)注技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘和衛(wèi)生與植檢措施的方法

WorldEconomyBrief

February5,2024

Vol.14No.04

ISSN2233-9140

AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandSouthKorea'sApproach

FocusingonTBTandSPS

SungilKWAK,ExecutiveDirector,CenterofEmergingEconomyStudies(sikwak@kiep.go.kr)

I.AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandKeyCountryCases:FocusonTBTandSPS

WeevaluatetheeconomicintegrationeffortswithintheASEANregion,focusingonTBT

andSPS.In2020,ASEANconductedamid-

termassessmentofeconomicintegrationand

producedthe“Mid-TermReview:ASEANEconomicBlueprint2025”in2021.Accord-

ingtotheresults,ASEANhasachieved54.1%ofthesectoralworkplans,withtheremaining34.2%currentlyunderwayandexpectedtobeachievedwithoutmajorproblems.TheASEANrecognizestheneedforregionalinte-grationtoovercomethepoly-crisesfacingtheglobaleconomy.TheASEANComprehensiveRecoveryFramework(ACRF)viewseco-nomicintegrationasameansofrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandtherelatedpoly-crises.Asaresult,intra-ASEANtradeandin-vestmenthaveincreasedsteadilysince2021.

Anotableharmonizationeffortfornon-tariff

measuressuchasTBTandSPSintheACRF

isthedevelopmentandapplicationofthe

"Non-TariffMeasuresCost-Effectiveness

Toolkit."Thistoolkitencouragesindividual

ASEANmemberstatestoassessboththeim-

plementationprocessandthecost-effective-

nessoftheirnon-tariffmeasures,therebypro-

motingharmonization.Additionally,the

"FrameworkforCircularEconomyforthe

ASEANEconomicCommunity,"adoptedby

ASEANin2021,canbeseenasaneffortto

harmonizeregulationsrelatedtocircular

goodsandservices.Whileexistingregulations

inmanufacturingsectorsmayrequiremore

timetoharmonizebecausetheyarealreadyin

place,emergingsectorslikecirculargoods

andservicescanflexiblyseekregulatoryhar-

monizationwithintheASEANregiondueto

theirongoingestablishment.Byachieving

standardharmonizationandmutualrecogni-

tionagreementsforthesesectors,SouthKorea

andASEANcananticipateefficiencygains

KIEPicfomicPolicy

WorldEconomyBrief

February5,2024

andregionalintegration,resultingintradefa-

cilitationeffectsbetweenthetworegions.

Furthermore,ananalysisofTBTandSPScasesinVietnamandIndonesia,keypartnersinthe"Korea-ASEANSolidarityInitiative(KASI),"aimedatassistingSouthKoreanfirmsexportinggoodstotheASEANregion.

Indonesiastillfacesissuesrelatedtocertifica-tionandtesting,including'halal'certification.Vietnam,despiteitshighlevelofintegrationintotheglobaleconomyasevidencedbyitshightradedependence,hasnotimplementedhigh-levelTBTandSPSmeasuresduetothelowtechnologicalcompetitivenessofitsdo-mesticandindigenousfirms.However,thereareconcemsaboutthetransparencyandade-quacyoftheimplementationprocess.Capac-itybuildingisurgentlyneededinVietnamandIndonesiatoensurethetransparentuseofSPSandTBTforpublicpurposes.

II.RegionalEconomicIntegrationAssessmentthroughSimilarityAnalysisofTBTandSPS

WefistmeasuredregulatorydistancesamongASEANmemberstates(AMS)from2015to2018.Duringthisperiod,weobservedanincreaseinTBTandSPSregulatorydis-tancesamongAMSincreasedasinTable1,indicatingalackofregulatoryharmonizationwithintheASEANregion.Thiscanbeat-tributedtotherapideconomicgrowth,leadingAMStofocusmoreonprotectingtheirowncitizens.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatthedatausedinthestudyisonlyavailableupto2018,makingitimpossibletocomparewiththemorerecentresults.Asdiscussedabove,ASEANhasmadeharmonizationeffortsinre-sponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicandpoly-

crises.Therefore,itisexpectedthatregulatorygapswilldecreaseasthe2025integrationtar-getapproaches.

Table1.ChangesinRegulatoryDistanceamongAMS

SPS

TBT

2015

2018

2015

2018

Brunei

0.285

0.306

0.208

0.235

ndonesia

0.309

0.361

0.214

0.267

Cambodia

0.352

0.401

0.398

0.427

Lao

0.275

0.309

0.188

0.241

Mvanmar

0.306

0.333

0.195

0.236

Malaysia

0.288

0.306

0.229

0.250

Philippine

0.342

0.376

0.262

0.306

Singapore

0.262

0.288

0.226

0.252

Thailand

0.332

0.350

0.205

0.231

Vietnam

0.446

0.392

0.314

0.441

Average

0.320

0.342

0.244

0.289

Source:UNCTADNTMdatabase.

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AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandSouthKorea'sApproachFocusingonTBTandSPS

WorldEconomyBrief

February5,2024

Figure1.AverageTBTRegulatoryDistancebetweenSouthKorea,Japan,

andASEANMemberStates(AMS)

Dim.1

Source:UNCTADNTMdatabase.

Note:KHM(Cambodia),VNM(Vietnam),PHL(Philippine),BRN(Brunei),LAO(Laos),IDN(Indonesia),JPN(Japan),THA(Thailand),Kor(Korea),MYS(Malaysia),MMR(Myanmar),SGP(Singapore)

Second,usingMultidimensionalScaling(MDS),TBTandSPSregulatorydistancesbe-tweenSouthKoreaandASEANarefoundtobegreaterthanthosebetweenJapanandASEANasinFigure1.WhentheaverageSPSregulatorydistanceindexbetweenSouthKo-rea,Japan,andASEANMemberStates(AMS)isplottedusingMDS,SouthKoreaislocatedfurtherawayfromJapanandtheAMS.This

indicatesthatSouthKorea'sSPSregulationsappeartobeheterogeneouscomparedtothoseofJapanandtheAMS.

IntermsofTBT,exceptforVietnamandCambodia,JapanandtheAMSareclosetoeachother,whileSouthKoreaisfarfromtheAMS.ThisresultcanbeattributedtoJapan'shistoricalcontributionstoASEAN'sinstitu-tionalbuildingthroughtheactivitiesofERIAandADB.SouthKoreaneedstoactivelypar-ticipateinprojectsaimedatstrengthening

institutionallinkagesbetweenSouthKoreaandASEAN,inparticular,inemergingsectorssuchasenvironmentalanddigitalindustries,inordertoharmonizetheSPSandTBTregu-

lationsinthesenewsectors.

Third,inindustriescloselylinkedtoglobalvaluechains,theregulatorydistancesofTBTareshorter,butthedistancesofSPSbetweenSouthKoreaandASEANarerelativelylonger.IntheMDSanalysisofTBTasinFigure2,theindustries,suchasautomobilesandsteel,inwhichSouthKoreahasacomparativead-vantageintheASEANregionarelocatedclosertoAMSandJapan.ThissuggeststhatincreasingregulatorysimilaritybetweenSouthKoreaandAMSwillpotentiallyaccel-erateregionalintegrationthroughexpandedtrade.Ontheotherhand,industrieshighlyaf-fectedbySPS,suchasmeatandfishproducts,andfruitandvegetableproducts,arefoundto

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AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandSouthKorea'sApproachFocusingonTBTandSPS

WorldEconomyBrief

February

5,2024

befarfromSouthKoreaandotherAMS.Thisdivergencecanbeattributedtosignificantdif-

ferencesininstitutionalarrangementsinthese

sectorsandincomedisparitiesbetweenSouth

KoreaandtheAMS.

Figure2.AverageTBTRegulatoryDistanceofSteelIndustry

Dim.1

Source:UNCTADNTMdatabase.

Note:KHM(Cambodia),VNM(Vietnam),PHL(Philippine),BRN(Brunei),LAO(Laos),IDN(Indonesia),JPN(Japan),THA(Thailand),Kor(Korea),MYS(Malaysia),MMR(Myanmar),SGP(Singapore)

Table2.TBTRegulatoryDistance(RD)byIndustrybetweenASEANandKorea

Industry

RD

MineralProduct

0.467

Chemicals&AlliedIndustries

0.573

Plastics/Rubbers

0.297

RawHides,Skins,Leather,Furs

0.331

Wood

0.398

WoodProducts

0.219

Textile

0.287

Footwear/Headgear

0.327

Stone

0.239

Pearl

0.593

Metals

0.300

Machinery/Electrical

0.511

Transportation

0.342

Optical/Clocks/MusicalInstruments

0.446

Arms/Ammunition

0.232

Furniture/Toy

0.397

WorkofArt

0.211

Source:UNCTADNTMdatabase.

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AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandSouthKorea'sApproachFocusingonTBTandSPS

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February5,2024

Fourth,theaverageregulatoryindexofTBT

betweenSouthKoreaandeachAMSshowssignificantdifferences,especiallyinhigh-technologyindustriessuchaschemicalsandmachineryasinTable2.Ontheotherhand,low-technologyindustriessuchasplas-tics/rubberandtextiles/apparelhaveshorterTBTregulatorydistancesonaverage.There-fore,itcanbeassumedthatthelikelihoodofTBT-relatedproblemsaffectingSouthKorea'sexportstotheASEANregionislowforlow-techindustriessuchastextiles/apparelandplastics/rubber.However,inhigh-technologyindustrieslikechemicalsandmachinery,SouthKorea'sexportersaremorelikelytoen-counterTBT-relatedproblems.ThisfindingisconsistentwiththepreviousAHPanalysis.

Fifth,countriesclassifiedashigh-incomecountries,suchasSingaporeandBrunei,haveshorterregulatorydistancesthanSouthKorea.However,significantregulatorydifferencesareobservedbetweenSouthKoreaandCam-bodia,alow-incomecountry.Thisiscon-sistentwithpreviousresearchsuggestingahigherdegreeofregulatorysimilarityamongcountrieswithsimilarincomelevels.There-fore,SingaporecanbeseenasavaluablefocalpointforSouthKoreatoharmonizeregula-

tionswithASEANmemberstates.

IⅢ.AnalysisoftheTradeEffects

ofASEANTBT/SPSMeasures

HereweestimatetheimpactofTBTandSPSofASEANmemberstatesontheexportsof

213exportingcountriestotheASEANregion

from1996to2021,usinggravitymodelswithfixedeffects.Theresultsoftheestimationcanbesummarizedintothreemainpoints.

First,non-tariffbarriersintheASEANregiondonotsignificantlyaffecttheexportsofcoun-triestoSoutheastAsiaasawhole.However,exportsfromOECDcountriesaresignifi-cantlynegativelyaffectedbyASEANTBTmeasures,whileexportsfromnon-OECDcountriesaresignificantlynegativelyaffectedbyASEANSPSmeasures.ThisisconsistentwiththefactthatASEANTBTmeasuresareprimarilytargetedatadvancedcountries,whichisconsistentwiththestylizedfactspre-sentedearlier.Moreover,itisevidentthatASEANTBTmeasuresbecameasignificantbarriertoexportsfromadvancedcountriestotheASEANregioninthe2010s.Thisalignswiththestylizedfactsearlierthatshowsanin-creaseinSpecificTradeConcem(STC)casesraisedbyadvancedcountriesregardingASEANTBTmeasuresinthe2010s.There-fore,SouthKorea,asanOECDcountry,needstofocusmoreondevelopingpoliciestoad-

dressTBTratherthanSPS.

Second,SPSisfoundtobeasignificantbar-rierinthecontinentalASEANcountries.ThisisduetothefactthatcountrieslocatedinthecontinentalpartoftheASEANregion,suchasCambodia,Laos,Myanmar,andVietnam,haverelativelylessdevelopedindustrialstruc-turescomparedtothemaritimepart.Inthe2010s,TBTservedasasignificanttradebar-rierintheASEANmaritimeregion.

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AssessingASEANEconomicIntegrationProgressandSouthKorea'sApproachFocusingonTBTandSPS

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February5,2024

Table3.EstimationResults(1996~2021)

Variable

InternalTradeofASEAN

Importof

MaritimeRegion

Importof

ContinentalRegion

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

InGDPit-

0.746

(0.551)

0.747

(0.549)

1.111***

(0.184)

1.111***

(0.184)

0.697**

(0.331)

0.695**

(0.332)

InGDPjt-1

0.615

(0.868)

0.623

(0.867)

-0.052

(0.263)

-0.049

(0.262)

3.250***

(0.483)

3.298***

(0.493)

ln(1+TARijt-1)

0.173*

(0.095)

0.166*

(0.096)

0.081**

(0.041)

0.081**

(0.041)

0.053

(0.059)

-0.058

(0.059)

ln(1+NTMit-i)

-0.068

(0.071)

-0.023

(0.029)

-0.213***

(0.046)

ln(1+TBTit-1)

-0.067

(0.054)

-0.008

(0.023)

-0.081

(0.054)

ln(1+SPSit-i)

-0.008

(0.05)

-0.041

(0.025)

-0.236***

(0.048)

R2

Obs.

0.572

1,606

0.574

0.42

0.42

0.322

0.318

1,606

16,824

16,824

8,072

8,072

F-stat14.48***14.40***24.47***23.85***14.65***16.49***

Note:*,**,and***represent10%,5%,1%ofsignificantlevelsrespectively.InGDPt-1andInGDPt-1representrespectively

countryi'sandcountryj'sGDP.TARijtrepresentsthetariffrateofcountryjtocountryi.NTMijtrepresentsthetotalnum-berofTBT/SPSnotification.

Giventherelativedevelopmentinthemari-timeregioncomparedtothecontinentalregion,thereisasignificantpotentialformoreactiveuseofTBTmeasuresbasedontechnologicaladvantages.Therefore,thereisaneedtopro-activelydevelopappropriatestrategiesforthissituation.Thisfindingalignswithlocalexpertinterviews,whichindicatedthatitmaybechallengingfordomesticfirmstoraiseTBTtoahighlevelincountriesthatarestillinthepro-cessofdevelopment,suchasVietnam

Third,overall,itisrevealedthatASEAN'sTBTandSPSmeasuresdonothaveasignifi-cantimpactonintra-ASEANtrade.However,theyhadastatisticallysignificantnegativeim-pactonintra-ASEANtradeinthe2010sasin

Table3.Thissuggeststhatregulatoryharmo-nizationandstandardizationwillbecrucialfortheexpansionofintra-ASEANtradeinthefu-tureASEANeconomicintegrationprocess.Indeed,ASEAN'seffortsforregulatoryhar-monizationandstandardizationhavebeenon-going,especiallysincetheCOVID-19pan-

demic.

Moreover,giventhehighsimilaritybetweenAMSregulationsandinstitutionsandthoseofJapan,SouthKorea,whichaspirestobeaglobalpivotstate,shouldactivelyengageinimprovingAMS'sregulationsandinstitutions,especiallyinemergingsectorssuchasthedig-italeconomyandenvironmentalgoodswithintheASEANregion.Sucheffortscanenhance

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February5,2024

notonlytradebutalsoSouthKorea'sstandingintheinternationalcommunity.

IV.PolicySuggestions

Basedontheresearchresultsabove,thisstudypresentsfourpolicydirections:

1.StrengtheningCooperationforRegula-toryHarmonizationinASEAN:Itisessen-tialtostrengthencooperationforregulatoryharmonizationwiththeASEANmemberstates(AMD).ThelocalscholarmeetingsheldinVietnamandIndonesiaalsostressedtheneedforcapacitybuildingamongTBTandSPSofficialsintheASEANregion.Asfuturetradebetweenthetworegionsisexpectedtorevolvemainlyaroundhigh-techindustries,proactiveeffortsareneededtoharmonizetechnicalregulations.Thiswillhelpreduceregulatorydisparitiesbetweenthetworegions.Asseenearlier,ASEAN'sregulationsfortra-ditionalmanufacturingindustrieswerealreadysimilartoJapan's.SouthKoreashouldfocusonregulatoryharmonizationinemergingsec-torssuchasthedigitaleconomyandenviron-

mentalindustries.

2.ConsiderationofaSouthKorea-ASEANJointCertificationCenter:Thesecondpol-icydirectionistoconsidertheestablishmentofajointSouthKorea-ASEANcertificationcentertofacilitateflexibleresponses.ThisiscrucialbecausetheimpactofTBT/SPSonex-portsmayvarybyproduct,time,andcountry.Theresultsofthestudyhighlighttheregula-torydifferencesbetweenthemaritimeandcontinentalpartsoftheASEANregion,which

affectSouthKorea'sexportstotheregiondif-ferently.BysettingupanASEAN-basedcer-tificationcenter,withSingaporeasapotentialhubduetoitsclosestregulatorydistancetoSouthKorea,andbystrengtheningthenet-workwithotherASEANmemberstates,moreflexibleresponsestochangesinAMS'sTBT/SPSpoliciescanbeachieved.

3.ProposalfortheEstablishmentofanASEANIntegratedStandardAccreditationSystem:ThethirdpolicydirectionproposestheestablishmentofanASEANIntegrate