農(nóng)業(yè)市場(chǎng)信息系統(tǒng)（AMIS）：全球農(nóng)業(yè)市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)報(bào)告2024年2

Market

AMISMonitor

Contents

No.115February2024

Withtheonsetof2024,commoditymarketsremainrelativelycalm,atleastcomparedtotherecentpast.Wheat,maizeandsoybeanexportpriceswereattheirlowestofthepasttwoyears.Ricepricesremaintheexception:duetoElNino-inducedproductionshortfallsandIndia'songoingexportrestrictions,thesearealmostathirdhigherthantheywereoneyearago.Marketswillbewatchingthedevel-

opmentofBrazilsoybeanproductionwhich

havebeenundersomestressduetobelow

normalrainfall.

Yet,potentialforshocksabounds:ship-

pingdisruptionsinthePanamaCanal,theRedSeaandmanyinlandwaterwayscouldthreatenestablishedtraderoutes,andalterthecompetitivenessofdifferentorigins,with

implicationsforplantingintentionsfor2024

crops.

Featurearticle:

ShippingDisruptions2

Worldsupply-demandoutlook3

Cropmonitor5

Policydevelopments8

Internationalprices12

Futuresmarkets14

Marketindicators15

Fertilizeroutlook17

Oceanfreightmarkets18

Explanatorynotes19

Marketsataglance

▲EasingNeutral

√Tightening

FROM

PREVIOUS

FORECASTS

FROM

PREVIOUS

SEASON

WHEAT

MAIZE

RICE

SOYBEANS

TheMarketMonitorisaproductoftheAgriculturalMarketInformationSystem(AMIS).Itcoversinternationalmarketsforwheat,maize,rice

andsoybeans,gvingasynopsisofmajormarketdevelopmentsandthepolicyandothermarketdriversbehindthem.TheanalysisisacollectiveassessmentofthemarketsituationandoutlookbytheteninternationalorganizationsandentiiesthatformtheAMISSecretariat.

Organizationof

FoodandAgriculture

theUnitedNations

業(yè)

兒IFAD

IFPRI°

IGC

OECDwonLDEAKORoU

WORLDTRADEORGANIZATION

2AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024

Featurearticle

ShippingDisruptions:focusonthePanamaCanalandtheRedSea

Whileshippingdisruptionsaffecting?owsfromUkrainianBlackSeaPortsfollowingthecessationoftheBlackSeaGrainInitiativeinJuly2023werepartiallyaddressedbyimplementationofa“humanitariancorridor”,shippingin2023wasmarredbystrainsinotherchokepointsaffect-ingmovementofgoodsglobally.

Particularlyinthesecondhalfof2023,lowwaterlevelsoninlandwaterwaystransportingagriculturalcommodi-tiesforexportsdownstreamandagriculturalinputsup-stream,includingtheRhineinGermany,theMississippiRiverintheUnitedStatesofAmericaandtheTapajosRiverinBrazil,constrainedvolumesandchallengedinter-naltransportationandlogisticsinmajorexportingcoun-tries.

Similarly,lowwaterlevelsresultingfromextremedrought,andexacerbatedbytheongoingElNi?oevent,cappedthesizeandthenumberofvesselsinthePanamaCanallocks,whichusuallyhandlecrossingsofasmanyas38vesselsperday.PanamaCanalLocksoperateonfreshwater.FirstreductionswereintroducedinJuly2023,andinJanuary2024reachednearly40percentcomparedtolastyear,leadingtoextendedwaitingtimeanddi-versions.Whilecontainertraf?ccanbookapassingslotorunloadintermodalcontainersbyrail,tankersanddrycargohavebeenaffectedbylongerwaitingtimeanddisruptions.ThePanamaCanalrouteshortenstransit,amongothers,forshipmentsofgrains,oilseedsandcot-tonfromtheUSGulfcoasttodestinationsinAsia,aswellashorticultureproductsfromChileandPerutoEuropeandUSEastcoastdestinations.DryconditionsarelikelytopersistuntilMay2024,erodingPanama’sexportearn-ingsfromcrossingfees.

Elsewhere,disruptionsinandaroundtheBabel-MandebbetweenYemenandtheHornofAfricacausedbyat-tacksoncommercialvesselsalongtheshippingrouteconnectingtheIndianOceanwiththeMediterraneanSeaviatheRedSeaandtheSuezCanal,havebeencon-strainingtraf?csincelate2023.Theroutecarriesslightlyovertenpercentofglobalmaritimetradevolume,withenergyproducts(mostlycrudeoilandLPG),beingthemostsigni?cantones.Whileearlierattacksappearedtohavebeendirectedatcontainervessels,inJanuary2024adrybulkcarrierandanoiltankerwerealsohit.Anum-berofshippingcompaniesrespondedtothethreatofat-tacksbyreroutingmaritimetraf?cviatheCapeofGoodHope(discussedinthefreightsection).Evenifvesselsarenotrerouted,insurancecostsforpassingtheStrait

haveincreased.UNCTADestimatesthatthenumberofvesselsclearingtheSuezCanalhasdeclinedbyover40percentinthepasttwomonths,constrainingoneofthemainsourcesofforeigncurrencyforEgypt.

TheeventsintheRedSeahavealreadyimpactedglobalvaluechains,suchasdelayeddeliveriesofcomponentsinjustintimedeliverysystems,withsomeindustrialsectorsreportingdelaysinarrivalsofnecessarycom-ponents.Foragriculturalcommodities,thepassagese-curesexportsofgrainsandoilseedsfromtheEU,Rus-sianFederationandUkrainetoAsiaandeastAfrica.Sim-ilarly,riceandothercommoditiesheadeastwardsfromAsia.Fertilizertrade,includingpotashfromRussianFed-erationtoAsia,alsotransitsthroughtheRedSea.

Ricetendstobeshippedincontainers.QuotationsforAsia–Europecontainerizedshippinghaveincreasedbyuptosixtimes,dependingonthetiming.Thebench-markShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexhasdoubledbetweenmid-December2023andmid-January2024.Inthedrybulkcarriers’sector(usedtotransportasigni?-cantshareofgrains,oilseedsaswellassomefertilizers),broadeffectsarenotyetseen,althoughlongershippingrouteswillincreasethecosts-someofwhichdependdirectlyonthecostofcrudeoil.Thereisalsoaconcernabouttheimpactoflongershippingroutesonperishableproductsandliveanimals,especiallythoseheadingtoNearEastmarkets.

CompetitivenessofBlackSeaandotherEuropeanori-ginstodestinationsinAsiamightbeerodedbyhighershippingcosts,whilethedevelopmentscouldbeben-e?cialforproducersontheAmericancontinent.Highershippingcostswillimpactfoodimportbillsandsubse-quentlyretailprices,althoughtheymightnotfullytrans-lateintohigherconsumerprices.Lowerfob(andfarm-gate)pricesmightabsorbsomeoftheincreasesinship-pingcosts.

Shouldenergypricessigni?cantlyincrease(asaresultoftheattacks,orcombinedwithotherfactors),higheren-ergycostswillhavespillovereffectsontheagriculturalsectorduetoitshighenergyintensityincludinguseofenergyinNitrogenfertilizerproduction.

UNCTADwarnsthatthecumulativeeffectofthesedis-ruptionstranslatesintoextendedcargotraveldistances,escalatingtradecosts,andasurgeingreenhousegasemissionsfromshippinghavingtotravelgreaterdis-tancesandatgreaterspeed.

INMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNESINMILLIONTONNES

USDA

IGC

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

12Jan

11Jan

789.2

651.4

784.9

648.3

803.7

666.0

788.3

651.7

1062.5

788.0

1056.5

781.1

1076.7

807.2

1070.0

794.2

783.0

635.0

796.4

642.9

795.1

652.3

804.4

655.0

216.1

202.8

213.3

200.8

207.6

194.1

197.9

185.2

271.6

132.7

260.0

126.5

281.6

141.3

265.6

126.6

USDA

IGC

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

12Jan

11Jan

1155.6

878.4

1235.7

946.9

1164.7

887.5

1230.1

941.3

1466.1

979.8

1536.3

1041.4

1451.2

985.9

1504.8

1040.0

1156.8

857.8

1199.6

893.6

1176.6

868.1

1217.9

907.0

180.5

161.8

198.5

175.5

179.7

160.6

176.0

156.0

300.6

94.5

325.2

113.4

274.6

98.6

286.8

113.0

USDA

IGC

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

12Jan

11Jan

513.0

367.0

513.5

368.9

514.5

368.5

511.1

366.5

696.2

437.3

689.3

438.1

690.1

437.8

681.2

434.3

525.0

370.0

519.9

370.0

520.0

369.2

515.7

367.7

52.4

49.8

52.2

49.4

51.0

48.0

49.7

46.4

175.8

69.2

167.2

65.2

170.2

65.6

165.6

63.3

USDA

IGC

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

2022/23est

2023/24f'cast

12Jan

11Jan

375.4

355.1

399.0

378.1

371.1

350.8

392.4

371.6

473.4

423.9

500.8

446.2

421.0

372.7

449.7

390.2

364.7

248.2

383.7

263.2

363.7

247.2

383.6

263.2

171.7

70.8

170.9

68.9

171.6

64.7

168.0

66.0

101.9

68.1

114.6

78.6

57.3

18.5

66.1

25.0

AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February20243

Worldsupply-demandoutlook

WHEATproductionin2023still2.2percentbelowthelevel

harvestedin2022,despiteanupwardrevisionthismonthlargelyfromhigherestimatesforCanada.

Utilizationin2023/24liftedsinceDecember,largelyonanotherupwardrevisiontofeeduseintheEU,andforecasttoincreaseby2.0percentabovethe2022/23level.

Tradein2023/24(July/June)raisedthismonthonimprovedexportprospectsforUkraineandimportdemandfromBrazil,China,andseveralcountriesinAsia;butstillfallingbelowthe2022/23level.

Stocks(endingin2024)forecastnearlyunchangedcomparedto

Decemberbutpointingtoa1.1percentcontractionbelowopeninglevelsfollowingrevisionsofhistoricalinventories.

Wheat

FAO-AMIS

2022/23est

2023/24

f'cast

7Dec

1Feb

Prod.

805.9

668.2

787.1

650.5

788.5

651.9

Supply

1105.4

833.7

1105.4

827.3

1111.3

833.2

Utiliz.

778.9

636.2

791.4

643.4

794.3

646.3

Trade

200.0

186.5

194.1

184.1

197.4

186.7

Stocks

323.1

181.6

319.3

179.7

319.7

179.3

MAIZEproductionforecastfor2023now5.2percentabovethe2022levelfollowinganotheradjustmentmostlyre?ectingupward

revisionsinChina,theEU,theUS,andTürkiye.

Utilizationin2023/24raisedslightlythismonthonhigherfeeduse,especiallyinChina,andsettoincreaseby1.5percentabovethe2022/23level.

Tradein2023/24(July/June)raisedthismonthonlargeranticipated

purchasesfromChinaandbiggersalesanticipatedinUkraine,Türkiye,andtheRussianFederation.

Stocks(endingin2024)revisedupwardsthismonthwithlargerinventoriesexpectedinChinaandMexico,andnowsurpassingopeninglevelsby10.3percent.

Maize

FAO-AMIS

2022/23est

2023/24

f'cast

7Dec

1Feb

Prod.

1168.9

891.7

1219.0

934.0

1229.4

940.6

Supply

1476.1

1042.2

1502.6

1063.4

1513.9

1070.9

Utiliz.

1187.6

889.2

1201.8

899.4

1205.5

900.1

Trade

182.9

163.8

180.5

160.5

186.1

161.1

Stocks

285.8

131.6

309.1

152.4

315.2

152.6

RICEproductionin2023/24loweredslightly,asadownwardrevisionforChinaismostlycompensatedbyoutputupgradesforvariousothercountries,especiallyGuinea,MaliandNepal.

Utilizationin2023/24stillseenstagnatingatthe2022/23level,despiteamildupwardrevisionsinceDecember.

Tradein2024downgradedsomewhat,primarilyonlessbuoyantimportexpectationsforNepalandNigeria.Amongexporters,shipmentsby

Indiadowngradedthemost.

Stocks(2023/24carry-out)loweredasdownscaledexpectationsfor

China,PakistanandThailandoutweighanupgrade,namelyforIndia.Despitetherevision,globalricereservesstillseenrisingby1.1percenty/y.

Rice

FAO-AMIS

2022/23est

2023/24

f'cast

7Dec

1Feb

Prod.

521.2

378.4

524.9

381.8

524.6

383.0

Supply

718.3

474.9

721.4

478.7

721.3

480.1

Utiliz.

522.6

375.7

521.6

378.3

522.2

379.4

Trade

52.7

49.9

52.2

48.9

51.5

48.1

Stocks

196.7

97.1

199.7

99.5

198.8

99.7

SOYBEAN2023/24productionvirtuallystable,asupward

revisionsinArgentinaandtheUScompensatedalowerforecastforBrazilamidunfavourableweatherconditions.

Utilizationin2023/24steadyduetooffsettingrevisionsinanumberofcountries,con?rmingexpectationsofa5.8-percenty/yrecoveryafterstagnatingfortwoconsecutiveseasons.

Tradein2023/24(Oct/Sep)liftedmarginally,primarilyre?ectingimportpurchasesbyChina,whileexportforecastswereraisedforArgentinaandtheUS.

Stocks(2023/24carry-out)loweredfurther,mostlyonexpectationsofstockreleasesinBrazilfollowingreducedsupplies.Globally,a13

percenty/yrecoveryincarry-overinventoriesisexpected.

Soybean

FAO-AMIS

2022/23est

2023/24

f'cast

7Dec

1Feb

Prod.

371.8

351.6

395.2

374.4

395.5

374.7

Supply

416.8

377.5

442.6

398.8

438.8

395.0

Utiliz.

366.5

250.5

388.0

269.0

388.6

269.0

Trade

171.0

71.1

167.1

69.3

168.2

69.4

Stocks

43.3

20.3

51.8

29.3

49.0

26.0

WorldBalances

DatashowninthesecondrowsrefertoworldaggregateswithoutChina;worldtradedatarefertoexports;andworldtradewithoutChinaexcludesexportstoChina.Toreviewandcomparedata,bycountryandcommodity,acrossthreemainsources,goto

/#/market-database/compare-sources

Estimatesandforecastsmaydifferacrosssourcesformanyreasons,includingdifferentmethodologies.FormoreinformationseeExplanatorynotesonthelastpageofthisreport.

+i

4AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024

Worldsupply-demandoutlook

Revisions(FAO-AMIS)to2023/24forecastssincethepreviousreport

WHEAT

MAIZE

RICE

SOYBEANS

Production

Imports

Utilization

Exports

Stocks

Production

Imports

Utilization

Exports

Stocks

Production

Imports

Utilization

Exports

Stocks

Production

Imports

Utilization

Exports

Stocks

WORLD

1373

3365

2891

3355

342

10390

5609

3630

5615

6085

-283

-765

590

-779

-872

328

1148

570

1102

-2805

TotalAMIS

1163

1400

2577

3175

-656

10897

4600

3101

5115

6920

-1619

-318

263

-730

-471

328

1148

570

1102

-2805

Argentina

-

-

370

-

1630

-

-

-

-

-

-

-3

33

-65

10

2000

50

500

800

500

Australia

69

-

515

-

1175

-

-

-

-

-

-

-20

15

20

45

-15

-

-16

1

-

Bangladesh

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Brazil

-1537

700

164

-500

-300

186

-

186

-

-

-2

-50

8

40

50

-3000

-

-500

-

-5000

Canada

2119

-

-131

500

350

144

-

-156

-

-

-

-

60

-

70

259

-

9

100

150

ChinaMainland

50

700

-

-

750

3842

5000

3000

-

5842

-1562

-

-528

-

-1100

40

1000

540

-

500

Egypt

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

EU

160

-

1002

-

-650

1561

-1000

62

-

500

-

-

-

-

-

48

-2

46

-

-

India

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

835

-700

700

-

-

-

-

-

Indonesia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-50

-

-50

-

-

Japan

-

-

-

-

-

-

300

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-5

-

-15

-

10

Kazakhstan

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Mexico

-

-

400

-400

-

318

1000

318

-

2000

-

-

-20

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Nigeria

45

-

45

-

-

-1410

-

-1240

-

-170

-119

-250

-239

-

-80

-

-

-

-

-

Philippines

-

-

-

-

-

-100

-

-100

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Rep.ofKorea

-

-

-

-

-

-

200

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

RussianFed.*

-230

-

-

-

1352

545

-

-455

1000

-

-

-

-

-

-

100

-

-

-

100

SaudiArabia

-

-

-

-

50

-

-

-

-

-

1

-70

-49

-

110

-

-

-

-

-

SouthAfrica

10

-

10

-

-

-14

-

-14

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Thailand

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-110

-

-360

-

-

-

-

-

Türkiye

200

-

-

-

150

2500

-900

-300

2100

-

-

-

-

-

-

8

-

8

-

-

Ukraine**

278

-

-

4000

-3722

600

-

-

2000

-1400

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

UK

-1

-

229

-425

-461

-

-

-104

15

-10

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

US

-

-

-27

-

-980

2725

-

1904

-

158

-44

75

-

-25

84

950

-

-100

200

940

VietNam

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

108

-

258

-

-

-7

100

148

1

-5

Inthousandtonnes

Note

Onlysigni?cantchanges(ofmorethan1000tonnes)aredisplayedinthetable.

*InformationfortheRussianFederationincludesstatisticaldatafortheAutonomousRepublicofCrimeaandthecityofSevastopol,Ukraine,temporarilyoccupiedbytheRussianFederation.

**InformationforUkraineexcludesstatisticaldataconcerningtheAutonomousRepublicofCrimea,thecityofSevastopolandtheDonetsk,Luhansk,KhersonandZaporizhzhiaregions.TheinformationispresentedwithoutprejudicetorelevantUNGeneralAssemblyandUNSecurityCouncilresolutions,whichreaf?rmtheterritorialintegrityofUkraine.

+i

AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024

5

Cropmonitor

Cropconditionsaroundtheworld

Dottedlinesrepresentunfinalizedborders

Wheat

CropconditionmapsynthesizinginfomationforallfourAMIScropsasof28January.Cropcanditionsoverthemaingrowingareasforwheat,maize,rice,andsoybeanarebasedonacombinationofnationalandregionalcropanalystinputsandearthobservationdata.Onlycropsthatareinother-than-favourableconditionsaredisplayedonthemapwiththeircropsymbol.

Conditionsataglance

Wheat

Inthesouthernhemisphere,harvestingiswrappingupinAr-

gentina.Inthenorthernhemisphere,winterwheatisunder

mixedconditionsinpartsofEurope,theBlackSearegion,

theUS,andCanada.

Maize

Inthesouthernhemisphere,conditionsarefavourablein

ArgentinaandSouthAfricawhileharvestingisbeginningin

Brazilforthespring-plantedcropundermixedconditions.

ConditionsarefavourableinIndiafortheRabicrop.

Rice

InIndia,transplantingoftheRabicropcontinues.InBangladesh,AusseasonriceharvestiswrappingupasBoroseasonriceissown.InSoutheastAsia,wet-seasonriceisbeginninginIndonesiaasthesowingofdry-seasonricerampsupinthenortherncountries.

Soybeans

Inthesouthernhemisphere,harvestingisbeginninginBrazilundermixedconditionsassowingiswrappingupinAr-gentinaunderfavourableconditions.

OngoingElNinoandPositiveIOD

TheongoingstrongElNinoeventisforecasttoweakendur-ingthenextseveralmonths.ENSO-neutralconditionsarelikelyduringApriltoJune(73percentchance).Long-rangeoutlooksindicateapossiblereturntoLaNinaconditionslaterthisyear,witha64percentchanceofaLaNinaeventbyAugusttoOc-tober2024,basedontheCPC/IRIforecast.

ENinoeventstendtoenhanceprecipitationinCentralAsia,southernNorthAmerica,south-easternSouthAmerica,andsouth-easternChina.Drier-than-averageconditionstendtooc-curinnorthemSouthAmerica,partsofthenorthernU.S.and

Canada,SouthernAfrica,theMaritimeContinent,andnorthern

Australia.

PositiveIndianOceanDipole(IOD)conditionscontinuetoweakenandwilllikelyreturntoneutralduringFebruary2024.Globally,2023wasthewarmestyearonrecord,andthewarm-inginfluenceofElNinowilllikelycontinuethisupwardtrendinto2024.Warmertemperatureswillexacerbaterainfalldeficitsduetohigherevaporation.

Source:UCSBClimateHazardsCenter

6

AMISMarketMonitorNo.115February2024

Cropmonitor

ConditionsDrivers

ExceptionalWatchOut-of-SeasonWetDryKExtremeFventConflict

FavourablePoorNoDataHot家CoolDelayed-OnsetSocio-Economic

Summariesbycrop

SouthAfrical,RussianFederation2,Canada3,Indonesia?

Wheat

InArgentina,harvestingiswrappingupundermixedcon-ditionsastheearlierseveredroughtaffectedmuchofthecountry.IntheEU,conditionsaremixedduetoacoldspellinthenorth,excessiverainfallincentralparts,anddrynessalongtheMediterranean.IntheUK,conditionsaremixedduetoexcessiverainfall.InTürkiye,conditionsarefavourable.InUkraine,conditionsarefavourableawayfromthewarzonewithadequatesnowcoverandanincreaseinsoilmoisture.

arefavourableassoilprecipitation;however,dry

IntheRussianFederation,conditions

moistureimprovedduetoample

conditionsremaininpartoftheCaucasus.InChina,conditionsarefavourablewithaboosttosoilmoisturereservesreceivedinDecember.InIndia,sowingiswrappingupunderfavourableconditionswithanincreaseintotalsownareacomparedto2023.IntheUS,conditionsaregenerallyfavourablealbeitwithrecentextremecoldtemperaturescombinedwithlimitedsnowcoverincreasingthepotentialforwinterkillintheNorthernHighPlains.Thereisareductioninthetotalsownareacomparedtolastyear.InCanada,winterwheatconditionsarefavourableinthemainproducingprovincesofOntarioandManitoba;how-ever,alackofadequatesnowcovercombinedwithextremelylowtemperaturesispotentiallyimpactingcropsinthePrairies.

Maize

InBrazil,harvestingisbeginningforthespring-plantedcrop(smallerseason)undermixedconditionsduetoalackofrainandhightemperaturesearlierintheseason;however,arecentreturnofrainsisexpectedtofacilitatetherecoveryofthecrop.Areductioninthetotalsownareaisexpectedcomparedtolastyear.Sowingofthesummer-plantedcrop(largerseason)isbe-ginningunderfavourableconditions.InArgentina,conditionsarefavourableforboththeearly-plantedcrop(largerseason),whichisinthefloweringandgrain-filingstage,andthelate-plantedcrop(smallerseason),whichisintheearly-vegetativestage.InSouthAfrica,conditionsarefavourablefollowingwidespreadrainsinceearlyDecember,however,temperaturesandrainfallduringFebruarywillbecritical.InMexico,harvestingiswrappingupfortheSpring-Summerseason(largerseason)asthesowingoftheAutumn-winterseason(smallerseason)continuesunderdryconditions.InIndia,sowingoftheRabicropiswrappingupunderfavourableconditions.

+iPiechartdescription

Eachslicerepresentsacountry'sshareoftotalAMISproduction(5-yearaverage),withthemainproducingcountries(95percentofproduction)shownindividuallyandtheremaining5percentgroupedintothe"OtherAMISCountries"categorySectionswithineachcountryareweightedbythesub-nationalproductionstatistics(5-yearaverage)oftherespectivecountryandaccountformultiplecroppingseasons(i.e.springandwinterwheat).Thelatevegetativetoreproductivecropgrowthstagesaregenerallythemostsensitiveperiodsforcropdevelopment.

AMIS

Market

Monitor

No.115

February

2024

7

Cropmonitor

Conditions

Exceptional

Favourable

Watch

Poor

Out-of-Season

NoData

Drivers

Wet

Hot

Dry

Cool

ExtremeEvent

Delayed-Onset

Conflict

Socio-Economic

Japan1,Brazil2

Rice

InIndia,transplantingofRabiriceisongoingunderfavourableconditionsintheeasternstatesandwithadelayinthesouthernstates,especiallyinKarnatakaduetodrynessleftoverfromthepreviousseason.InBangladesh,conditionsarefavourableasboththeharvestingoftheAusseasonrice(smallestseason)andsowingoftheBoroseasonrice(largestseason)wrapup.InIndonesia,conditionsarefavourableaswet-seasonricesow-ingcontinuesandtheharvestingofearliersowncropsbegins.InVietNam,thesowingofdry-seasonrice(winter-springrice)sbeginningintheMekongRiverDeltaunderfavourablecondi-tions.InThailand,dry-seasonriceconditionshaveimproved,althoughthedryweatherduringsowingisexpectedtoresultinareductioninthetotalsownareacomparedtolastyear.InthePhilippines,dry-seasonriceisunderfavourableconditionsduetoamplerainfallduringsowingandhigh-yieldseedassis-tancefromthegovernment.InBrazil,conditionsarefavourablewithanincreaseinsownareacomparedtolastyear.

Soybeans

InBrazil,asharvestingbegins,conditionsaremixedacrossmostofthecountryduetoalackofrainandhightemperaturesfromSeptembertomid-December.However,regularrainshavereturned,andconditionsarelikelytoimprovebeforeharvest.IntheSouth,conditionsarefavourabledespiteexcessiverainfall.InArgentina,sowingiswrappingupunderfavourablecondi-tionsacrossthecountry.Theearly-plantedcrop(typicallylargerseason)isinthereproductivestagesandthelate-plantedcrop(typicallysmallerseason)isemerging.

Informationoncropconditionsinnon-AMIScountries

canbefoundintheGEOGLAMEarlyWarningCropMon-

itor,published1February.

+iSourcesanddisclaimers

TheCropMonitorassessmentisconductedbyGEOGLAMwithinputsfromthefollowingpartners(inalphabeticalorder):Argentina(BuenosAiresGrainsExchange,INTA),AsiaRiceCountries(AFSIS,ASEAN+3&AsiaRiCE,Australia(ABARES&CSIRO),Brazil(CONAB&INPE,Canada(AAFC),China(CAS),EU(ECJRCMARS),Indonesia(LAPAN&MOA),International(CIMMYT,FAO,IFPRI&IRRI),Japan(JAXA),Mexico(SIAP),RussianFederation(IKI),SouthAfrica(ARC&GeoTerralmage&SANSA),Thailand(GISTDA&OAE),Ukraine(NASU-NSAU&UHMC),USA(NASA,UMD,USGS-FEWSNET,USDA(FAS,NASS),VietNam(VAST&VIMHEMARD).TheindingsandconclusionsinthisjaintmultiagencyreportareconsensualstatementsfromtheGEOGLAMexperts,anddonotnecessarlyrelectthoseoftheindividualagenciesrepresentedbytheseexperts.MoredetailedinformationontheGEOGLAMcropassessmentsisavailableat

.

8AMISMarket