課件作文機(jī)機(jī)于

3842266479.咖啡店做調(diào)110.MarketCo.33842266479.咖啡店做調(diào)110.MarketCo.3378415.賣interactiveonline (more152527222.Olympic541425.開連鎖藥1127.38434333.開連鎖藥134.541425.開連鎖藥1127.38434333.開連鎖藥134.54673315243.544.132目 2.HR要為業(yè)績下滑負(fù) 目 2.HR要為業(yè)績下滑負(fù) 7.摩托公司生產(chǎn) 8.培訓(xùn)軟件的建議(考古 9.咖啡店做調(diào) 10.MarketCo.提高顧客 13.摩托公司和廣 547.CEO建議（考古248.小島舉辦足球賽（考古149.Localcookingbook150.Local114.工作建 15.interactiveonline(moredetails 14.工作建 15.interactiveonline(moredetails 17.老板以前是 18.Restwayhotel(moredetails 19.健身中心建游泳 19.收購一個cloth商場(moredetails 20.三家 21.服裝店和音樂 22.Olympic 23.MarketCo.提高顧客 27.減少新航 28.開 29.提高地鐵載客 30.手機(jī)稀有金 31.環(huán)境條 632.給高級轎車打廣 33.開連鎖藥 34. 35.輪胎公 32.給高級轎車打廣 33.開連鎖藥 34. 35.輪胎公 36.健身器材和雜 37.摩托公司收 38.localsandwich加盟連鎖 39.amusementpark 41.吸引更多青少 42.開分 43.軟件公司臨時 44.購買不動 45.outsource的眼鏡 46.城市巴士提 47.CEO建議（考古 48.小島舉辦足球賽（考古 49.Localcooking 750.Local 七宗罪簡述:(FromCD第一50.Local 七宗罪簡述:(FromCD第一宗罪:無因果聯(lián)Theauthorcommitsafallacyofcausaloversimplification.ThelineofthereasoningisbecauseAoccurredbeforeB,theformereventisresponsibleforthelatter.(TheauthorthepositivecorrelationbetweenAandBtoestablishcausality.However,thefactthatcoincideswithBdoesnotnecessarilyprovethatAcausedB.)Butthisisfallaciousunlessotherpossiblecausalexplanationshavebeenconsideredandruledout.ForperhapsCisthecauseoftheseeventsorperhapsBiscausedby第二宗Insufficient-Theevidencetheauthorprovidesisinsufficienttosupporttheconclusiondrawnfromit.exampleislogicallyunsoundedtoestablishageneralconclusion(Thestatisticsfromonlyarecentyearsarenotnecessarilyagoodindicatoroffuturetrends),unlessitcanbeshownA1isrepresentativeofallA.Itispossible Infact,infaceofsuchlimitedevidence,conclusionthatBiscompletely第三宗罪:錯誤類比(basedonafalseanalogy橫向TheargumentrestsontheassumptionthatAisanalogoustoBinallrespects.Thisisweak,sincealthoughtherearepointsofcomparisonbetweenAandB,thereis8 Thus,itislikelymuchmore Thus,itislikelymuchmoredifficultforto第四宗allthingsareequal<縱向Theauthorcommitsthefallacyof“allthingsareequal”.Thefactthathappenedtwoyearsisnotasoundevidencetodrawaconclusion Theauthorassumeswithoutthatthebackgroundconditionshaveremainedthesameatdifferenttimesoratlocations.However,itisnotclearinthisargumentwhetherthecurrentconditionsatAAaresameastheyusedtobetwoyearsago.Thusitisimpossibletoconclude第五宗Either-OrTheauthorassumesthatAAandBBaremutuallyexclusivealternativesandthereisnoroomamiddleground.However,theauthorprovidesnoreasonforimposinganeither-orCommonsensetellsusthatadjustingbothAAandBBmightproducebetter第六宗surveyisThepollcitedbytheauthoristoovaguetobeinformative.Theclaimdoesnotindicateconductedthepoll,whoresponded,orwhen,rmationaboutthenumberofpeoplesurveyedandthenumberofrespondents,itimpossibletoaccessthevalidityoftheresults.Forexample,if200personsweresurveyedonly2responded,theconclusionthat...wouldbehighlysuspect.Becausetheargumentnoevidencethatwouldruleoutthiskindofinterpretations,)Untilthesequestionsaretheresultsofthesurveyareworthlessasevidenceforthe第七宗gratuitousTheauthorfalselydependsongratuitousassumption 9theargumenttosupportthisassumption.Infact,theargumenttosupportthisassumption.Infact,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.Foritismorelikely 1.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheownerofCarlo'sClothingtothe"SinceDiscDepot,themusicstoreonthenextblock,begananewradioadvertisingcampaignyear,itsbusinesshasgrowndramatically,asevidencedbythelargeincreaseinfoottrafficintothestore.WhiletheDiscDepot'sownershaveapparentlybecomewealthyenoughtoretire,profitsatCarlo'sClothinghaveremainedstagnantforthepastthreeyears.Inordertoboostoursalesandprofits,weshouldthereforeswitchfromnewspaperadvertisingtofrequentradioadvertisementslikethoseforDisc>>>參考思1.錯誤類比：DDmusicstore與C的服飾店無可比性，不能說廣告就適用C3.因果關(guān)系：沒有說電臺廣告與業(yè)務(wù)量增長有必然因果關(guān)系。OtherfactorsotherthanradioadvertisementthatmaycontributetothebusinessgrowthofDiscdepotshouldbeconsideredandruledout.比如促銷，請了明星做活動等等。. >>>考ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheCEOofaconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingfirmtotheheadThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheCEOofaconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingfirmtotheheadofthecompany'shumanresourcesdepartment,whoisresponsibleforhiringnew“Eightyearsago,ourfirm’sprofitswereincreasingwitheachnewemployeeweadded.Wediscoveredthateachemployeehadtheskillsandmotivationtogeneratemorerevenueforthefirmthanhisorhersalarycostus.However,forthepasttwoyears,ourprofitmarginhasbeenfalling,eventhoughwehavecontinuedtoaddemployees.Thus,ournewemployeesarenotgeneratingenoughrevenuetojustifytheirsalaries.Wemustnotbehiringnewemployeeswiththesamelevelofskillsandmotivationasthoseweusedtoattract.Clearly,then,failuresinthehumanresourcesdepartmentaccountforourfallingprofits.>>>參考思1.GratuitousAssumption:ABunjustifiedsalariesemployee創(chuàng)造的revenue下降,下降也可能是由于職工所在部門的部門經(jīng)理的管理能力不足。Humanresourcesdepartmentunjustifiedsalaries,HR一CEO2.充分必要條件:fallingprofits下降,比如產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)過時,3.allthingsareequal:過去經(jīng)驗(yàn)現(xiàn)在不一定適用,3.>>>考3Alligard市，有我們的兩大rival。其中KulbyDrug在該市勢（我們的價格優(yōu)勢得益于向供應(yīng)商進(jìn)大量的藥品）來吸引KDlongtimecustomer。綜上，我們可以成為A市的leadingdrugstoreoperationV2Holner'sAllegardkirbydrug的當(dāng)?shù)剡B鎖藥V2Holner'sAllegardkirbydrug的當(dāng)?shù)剡B鎖藥kirbydrug還是有很多的長期顧客。lowerpriceonnationalbrandskirbyHolner’s就傻V1byV2byKirbylongtimecustomerKirby的服務(wù)，所以Kirby>>>參考思>>>考古原Thefollowingappearedaspartofanarticleinamagazinedevotedtoregional“CorporationsshouldlooktothecityofHelioswhenseekingnewbusinessopportunitiesornewlocation.Evenintherecentrecession,Helios’sunemploymentratewaslowerthantheregionalaverage.Itistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,andhistoricallyithasprovidedmorethanitsshareoftheregion’smanufacturingjobs.Inaddition,Heliosisattemptingtoexpanditseconomicbasebyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovative>>>參考思1.無根據(jù)假設(shè)：H是industrialcenter>>>參考思1.無根據(jù)假設(shè)：H是industrialcenteroftheregion不代表companiesthatfocusonresearchdevelopmentofinnovativetechnologieswillachievein分的競爭，以及可能出現(xiàn)的不利政策，都可能導(dǎo)致H3.因果關(guān)系：expandeconomicbase也不能僅僅依靠attract.>>>參考范InthisargumentcorporationsareurgedtoconsiderthecityofHelioswhenseekingalocationornewbusinessopportunities.Tosupportthisrecommendation,theauthorpointsoutthatHeliosistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,providingmostoftheregion’smanufacturingjobsandenjoyingalower-than-averageunemploymentrate.Moreover,itisargued,effortsarecurrentlyunderwaytoexpandtheeconomicbaseofthecitybyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativetechnologies.ThisargumentisproblematicfortwoTobeginwith,itisquestionablewhethertheavailablelaborpoolinHelioscouldsupportallofcorporations.GiventhatHelioshasattractedmainlyindustrialandmanufacturingcompaniesinthepast,itisunlikelythatthelocalpoolofprospectiveemployeeswouldbesuitableforcorporationsofothertypes.Forexample,theneedsofresearchanddevelopmentcompanieswouldnotbemetbyalaborforcetrainedinmanufacturingskills.Forthisreason,it’sthatHelioswillbesuccessfulthatHelioswillbesuccessfulinitsattempttoattractcompaniesthatfocusorresearchAnotherproblemwiththeavailableworkforceisitssize.DuetothelowerthanunemploymentrateinHelios,corporationsthatrequirelargenumbersofworkerswouldnotfindHeliosattractive.ThefactthatfewpersonsareoutofworksuggeststhatnewcorporationswillhavetoeitherattractnewworkerstoHeliosorpaytheexistingworkershigherwagesinordertolurethemawayfromtheircurrentjobs.NeitherofthesealternativesseemsenticingtocompaniesseekingtoInconclusion,theauthorhasnotsucceededinprovidingcompellingreasonsforselectingasthesiteforacompanywishingtorelocate.Infact,thereasonsofferedfunctionbetterreasonsfornotrelocatingtoHelios.NorhastheauthorprovidedcompellingreasonsforcompaniesseekingnewbusinessopportunitiestochooseHelios.5.>>>考MegaBeautyMega點(diǎn)結(jié)合后面的美國分銷商）havehadbeenwellknowninEurope,butintheU.S.wehavehaddifficultyselling還是gettingmarket,ceocarefulconsiderationdistributorMega-Beautynetworkthatindustry,agreementKlongtermgrowthinterestdistributor20discountbrand1500>>>參考思6.咖啡店做調(diào)>>>考們把網(wǎng)站地址在每張收據(jù)上都有寫，所以thefeedbackpagecanbeeasilyfoundbycustomers。However,theyonlyreceived一個相對小的數(shù)字的complaintsandsuggestionswhilethenumberofcupsofcoffeetheysoldonlinewasFEEDBACK3000所以對于給feedback應(yīng)該所以對于給feedback應(yīng)該是沒問題的。在給予300000的服product150多給了complaint(orfeed)，50多了suggestions.因此，CEO覺得說almostallofourcustomersaresatisfiedwithourserviceandprodct,andwedonotneedtomake考7.>>>考V2.某摩托車生產(chǎn)公司有twoproductionlines，手工線生產(chǎn)luxurymotorcycles,buttheproductionrequiresmoreexpensivematerialandlongertime;機(jī)器人線生產(chǎn)standardmotorcycles,.公司將cease豪華車生產(chǎn)線inordertoproduceagreatnumberofmotorcyclesmoreefficientlyandgetmore>>>參考思.8.培訓(xùn)軟件的建議(考古>>>本月原V1:作文是培訓(xùn)軟件的建議，說是無論培訓(xùn)新.V2:corporationincreaseproductivitycutcost,corporation采取的措施是purchaseonlineself-trainingprogram.employees在家自己上網(wǎng)學(xué)習(xí)，從而decrease公司的cost.員工們學(xué)習(xí)了onlinetrainingcourse之后就可以讓V3:一個I公司的sisocure宣傳他們的oineseftaiigrogam給各個oaios.1I何評價這個段落>>>考古ThefollowingappearedinabrochurefromIntelliTrain,acompanythathelpscorporationsdevelopinteractiveonlineself-trainingprogramsfortheiremployees:“You’vejusthiredanewemployee,butthatnewemployeeisfarfromreadytocontributetoyourcompany.Everyhourspenttrainingthisemployeeisanhouroflostproductivity,bothforthenewemployeeandfortheexperiencedemployeedoingthetraining.Ourinteractiveonlineprogramsallownewemployeestotrainthemselves.Thismakestrainingmoreefficientandreducesthenumberofworkforcehoursdevotedtotraining,resultinginanewemployeewhoisbetterpreparedtocontributeeffectivelytoyourbusiness.Furthermore,thecostofthetrainingprogramswillbemorethanoffsetbythemoneysavedinreducingworkforcehourscurrentlydevotedtotraining.Purchasingouronlineself-trainingprogramswillhelpyourcorporationreducecostsincreaseprofitability.”Discuss>>>參考思can'tmakeatraineetrainer,simplybecausetrainingrequiresanin-depthknowledgeofwhattoteach.ifaguyknewitalready,heorshewouldn'tneedatraining.sopartoftheargumentjustlogicallycontradictsanohter:itisdesignedtotrainapersonbyassumingthatpersonisalreadyknowledgeableenoughtotrainhimself.thisisludicrous.2.trainingnewemployeesisn'tjustasimple>>>參考思can'tmakeatraineetrainer,simplybecausetrainingrequiresanin-depthknowledgeofwhattoteach.ifaguyknewitalready,heorshewouldn'tneedatraining.sopartoftheargumentjustlogicallycontradictsanohter:itisdesignedtotrainapersonbyassumingthatpersonisalreadyknowledgeableenoughtotrainhimself.thisisludicrous.2.trainingnewemployeesisn'tjustasimpleprocessofteachingthemskillsandtechniques,butmoreaprocesstoadoptthemintothenewenvironmentandbuilduptheirpersonalnetwork.onlineprogramwilldeprivethemofthisopportunityofinteractingwiththeexperiencedemployees.Andtheargumentjustarbitrarilyassumesthatsuchaprocessasseeminglytakesupsomeworkingtime,iscounterproductive.Actuallyinalongrun,thisfamiliarizationandadoptationwillboostthepopejustpaidablockbustervisittomycityamonthago,showingthatsomehalfofworld'spopulationbelievethateventhoughthelightisintheirheartandthebookattheirdesk,theguidancefromaboveneedstopassedontothemthroughatutor.Butasalesmanofanonlineprogramdefinitelybelongstotheotherhalf,holdingabeliefthatwiththelightinhisheartandabookathand,hecanbebrightanywhereonlyifhedigs9.咖啡店做調(diào)>>>考Bygreenfield還是greengrocersalesprofit吅作來吸引顧客，因?yàn)樗麄兒凸忸櫮羌襝afe的groupV1by說theCupCafe公司CEO在report里面提到他們?nèi)齻€月前在receipt里面添加了一個V1by說theCupCafe公司CEO在report里面提到他們?nèi)齻€月前在receipt里面添加了一個linksubmitsuggestionsandcomplaints.149五十幾條是網(wǎng)上提交，因此得出結(jié)論顧客satisfiedwithcurrentthefeedbackpagecanbeeasilyfoundbycustomersHowever,theyonlycomplaintsandsuggestions，whilenumberofcupsofcoffeetheysoldonlinewas客很滿意，不需要改進(jìn)了V2：有一個咖啡公司叫hotcoffeexxx做了一個調(diào)查，發(fā)現(xiàn)只有283個negativefeedbackalltheparticipant.FEEDBACK300078名有EVALUATEIMPROVEV4HotCupCafe不需要做任何改進(jìn)。CafeCEOcomplaint，在全部的收據(jù)上都很清楚的注明如何到的網(wǎng)站上給feedbackorcomplaint，所對于給feedback應(yīng)該是沒問題的。在給予300000的服務(wù)和product中，只有150多給了complaint(orfeed)，50suggestions.因此，CEOalmostallofourcustomersaresatisfiedwithourserviceandprodctandwedonotneedtomakeimproveinprogress可能漏了一些信息，不過主要點(diǎn)都有寫出來V5 蘆葦薇薇等是講一個company的cafechai（啡連鎖店之類的的service部門調(diào)查他們的顧客的feedback，websitepagepage30000顧客中網(wǎng)站158complaints53suggestionsprocedure不需要改進(jìn)V6就寫的是那coffee館的有feedback的，說一個賣咖啡的公司在網(wǎng)站上發(fā)問卷，并把問卷地址59個suggestion。然后author認(rèn)為客戶對他們的服務(wù)和商品都很滿意，所以不需要改V7 狗主碰到的是咖啡店調(diào)查客戶滿意度的那題狗主碰到的是咖啡店調(diào)查客戶滿意度的那題里頭有V8ByRhea-說有一篇給老板 report，在他的反饋網(wǎng)站里，只有一百多個抱怨，而在有反饋網(wǎng)站運(yùn)行的六月中賣了300000杯咖啡，所以說他們不用改善自己的產(chǎn)品和服考10.MarketCo.提高顧客>>>考V1題目說為了提高本地居民對MarketColoyaltyMarketCo.高自己的知名廟(oftenseen),這樣可以persuade居民去他那買東西,課外活勱,足球比賽藝術(shù)展覽神馬的。我就是主要吏槽他oftenseen丌一定能提高啊,loyalty和sales相關(guān)又丌是oftenseen就可以,V2MarketCoresearch,localconsumerwilldeveloployaltytothatcausethemtokeepshopping.所以這個公司的負(fù)責(zé)人建議MartketComovesometheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalcommunity.(V1BY?mining公司因?yàn)榍熬柏⒑?有然后調(diào)查顯示是因?yàn)閘oyalty問題。然后M就要資劣社區(qū)活勱V1BY?mining公司因?yàn)榍熬柏⒑?有然后調(diào)查顯示是因?yàn)閘oyalty問題。然后M就要資劣社區(qū)活勱,來提高loyalty,以提高在這個城市中的V3by(蔲拉表示跟JJ丌太一樣啊0,0哪有soccer,難道是狗主把這個題和16題搞混了是搞基建)localpeopleMarketCo買東西,increasethelocalmarketDevelopcustomerloyalty.大致是這樣的>>>參考思1.Thestatisticallyreliabilityofsurvey/research(whoconducted,whoorhowthesurveywere2.錯誤因果:調(diào)整宣傳的預(yù)算搞基建就能讓localpeople在MarketCo買東西?忠誠廟是一個漫長的過程,這樣直接assume太天真了啦3.無關(guān)假設(shè)movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingofincreasethelocalmarketshare,更丌能說就能develop>>>考V1：講FF公司的cereal以前是adultwomen買的多V1：講FF公司的cereal以前是adultwomen買的多但是last2years據(jù)顯示consumerFFcerealchildrenV2：woman比mancerealfood.而丏由亍近些年children增長了15%~20%,所以應(yīng)該增加針對children的cereal.還要做廣告神馬的,,由亍這個corporationwillstandout,所以他們的profitV3：一個公司叨做Fieflake經(jīng)營cerealline.過去一直65%消費(fèi)者主要是adultwomen。是過去兩年 increase16%to25%.因此，公司的新策略是轉(zhuǎn)移正 children.這個wholefamily.別的公司也是對wholefamily.生產(chǎn)children'sline這樣叧有它一個公司生產(chǎn)這種東西可以避免競爭力和增加銷>>>參考思1childrenChildren 更換產(chǎn)品包裝，新產(chǎn)品推廣成本可能大亍銷售的增加 其他公司可能也在準(zhǔn)備children包裝，戒是迅速模仿，競爭力已然存>>>本月原luxuryhotelconventionvisitor的稅收，減luxuryhotelhotel50%booked。（這里我應(yīng)該沒看明白，沒找到攻擊點(diǎn)）luxuriou服務(wù)hotelluxuryhotel花錢的。（>>>考V1ByV2ByV2By“Bcenterluxuryhotelluxuryhotelguestspaymorethantheconventionalhotel.然后這樣就可以增加城市的taxrevenue.增加了城市的revenuelocalresidentswouldnotneedtopaymoreforthetotaltaxrevenue.centerhotels50ofthecapacity,luxuryhoteltaxrevenue,conventioncenter（conven,out-townvisitorslocalpeoplevisitorluxuryhotel會很蠢的付更多錢（大概意思就是這個房間本來一晚叧要200說本地政店為了實(shí)現(xiàn)稅收目標(biāo)，taxrevenueincrease本地有個會展中心（convention說本地政店為了實(shí)現(xiàn)稅收目標(biāo)，taxrevenueincrease本地有個會展中心（conventioncenter）是一個themorethelessout-of-towntaxtax就可以丌用交太多稅了，稅收挃標(biāo)由這些外地土豪買單了。另外這個convention叧有>>>參考思13.>>>本月原V1:motorcycle公司的一個survey90%的顧客認(rèn)為socialnetworkingwebsites的廣告對他V1:motorcycle公司的一個survey90%的顧客認(rèn)為socialnetworkingwebsites的廣告對他televisionradioadssales就websitesbudgettelevisonradio廣告，這>>>考o(jì)nsocialnetworkingwebsiteshasbeeninefficient.InasurveyofONEsuchwebsite(?),V3By>>>參考思2.因果關(guān)系-錯誤因果：2.因果關(guān)系-錯誤因果：70%sellspecific.和14.>>>本月原>>>考ByByhousehold因此，officejobleadtomoreByV2peopleworkingathome，asteadyofficejob有schedule啊，最后就說在家working會使自己的社交圈和朋友圈isolated，因此對>>>參考思4.因果關(guān)系-忽略他因：一個人在完全與外界社會隔絕時會被sociallyanddetails>>>本月原details>>>本月原>>>考.gymcustomer（gym鍛煉的人群）customers食健康的.foodgrocerygymlocationorganicfoodgroceryV3BYgymCornerorganicfoodstationV3BYgymCornerorganicfoodstation>>>參考思.17.老板以前是>>>考V2JJ里有;throughvariousretailstors團(tuán)隊(duì)，CEO很成功，曾經(jīng)是rockstar,所以相信他的名聲會有助于產(chǎn)品銷售。2.該公司管理層aggressivelypursueexpansion.現(xiàn)在在outletretailstoresinshoppingmallsalloverthe.V4financialanalystwroteamemototheInvestmentDirector.因?yàn)橐粋€公司叫CrowBrandmanufacturest-shirts,jeanswhichhasbecomeahottrendinyouthapparel.Rightnow,thiscompanysellsmostoftheirproductsthroughvariousoutlets.Moreoveritsmanagementteamhasveryaggressiveplantoopen125storesinshoppingmalls.ThefinancialanalyststronglyrecommendhisclientsbuyCrowBrand'sstock.ItsCEO,whoisapreviousrockstar,willalsomakethiscompanya>>>參考思variousoutlets去銷售它們的產(chǎn)品，而如果它們open125storesshoppingmalls就不一因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者不會關(guān)心她曾經(jīng)是不是rockstar>>>本月原V1Restwayhotelhotel對于complimentaryservicewifi每個客戶都收費(fèi)，這很不合理，因?yàn)橛械目蛻舾緵]有這個需求。并且提到一家moreluxurioushotelAmbassodorInn采用了chargeseparatelypolicy,complimentaryservicefee很貴，這樣的政策使它的客人很多（這個具體忘了），所以結(jié)論是followpolicyprofitV2:一個叫...Motel的經(jīng)理說：它們提供很多附帶性的服務(wù)，這些服務(wù)的成本都要在所有moreluxuriousV2:一個叫...Motel的經(jīng)理說：它們提供很多附帶性的服務(wù)，這些服務(wù)的成本都要在所有moreluxuriousAInncharge這些服務(wù)，而且價格相對高一些，然后這個Adoesbetterbusiness.所以我們要學(xué)習(xí)Apolicytobillseperately.第二是不能說AV3:有一個motelRestawayMotelmotelcomplimentaryservices19.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedaspartofabusinessplancreatedbythemanagementoftheTake“Afteropeningthenewswimmingpoolearlylastsummer,TakeHeartsawa12percentintheuseofthecenterbymembers.Therefore,inordertoincreasethenumberofourmembersandthusourrevenues,whichdependonmembershipfees,weshouldcontinuetoaddnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyears:forexample,amultipurposegameroom,atenniscourt,andaminiaturegolfcourse.Beingtheonlycenterintheareaofferingthisrangeofactivitieswouldgiveusacompetitiveadvantageinthehealthandrecreationmarket.”>>>參考思.>>>參考范BecauseTakeHeartFitnessCenterexperienceda12percentincreaseinmemberusageasresultofopeninganewswimmingpoollastsummer,theauthorrecommendstheadditionofnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyearsasameansofincreasingmembershipinTakeHeart.Theauthor’srecommendationisproblematicforseveralreasons.First,andforemost,theauthorassumesthatanincreaseinmemberusageportendsaninmembership.Thisassumptionmayholdtrueinsomecases.However,itisunlikelytoholdtrueinthecaseathand,becauseitisreasonabletoexpectthatmemberswouldvisitthefitnesscentertoinspectandtryoutthenewswimmingpool.Thiswouldaccountfortheincreaseinusage.However,sincetheauthorprovidesnoevidencethatthisnewrateofusagewassustained,theabruptincreaseinusageprovideslittleevidencethattheadditionoffacilitiessuchasthepoolwillattractnewSecond,theauthorassumesthattheadditionoftheswimmingpoolwasresponsibleforincreaseinmemberusage.However,theonlyevidenceforthisclaimisinsufficienttoestablishthecausalclaiminquestion.Whiletemporalprecedenceisoneoftheconditionsrequiredtoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweentwoevents,byitselfitisnotasufficientcondition.Consequently,itispossiblethattheadditionofthepoolwasunrelatedtotheincreaseinusageinthemannerrequiredbytheauthor’sFinally,theauthorhasprovidednoevidencetosupportthecontentionthatTakeHeartwillbeonlycenterintheareatoofferawiderangeofactivitiestoitsmembersandthushaveacompetitiveadvantageinthefitnessmarket.Inconclusion,theauthor’sbeliefthataddingadditionalrecreationalfacilitieswillincreaseHeart’smembershipisill-founded.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatmemberusageisreliableindicatorofnewmembership.Additionally,itwouldnecessarytoshowthatthecauseoftheincreaseinusagewastheopeningofthenew 商19.收購一個>>>本月原 商19.收購一個>>>本月原 20.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedaspartofthebusinessplanoftheCapitalIdeainvestment"AcrosstownintheParkHilldistrict,theThespianTheater,PizzazzPizza,andtheNiblickGolfhaveallhadbusinessincreasesoverthepasttwoyears.CapitalIdeashouldthereforeinvestintheRoxyPlayhouse,theSlice-o'-Pizza,andtheDivotGolfClub,threenewbusinessesintheIrongatedistrict.Asacondition,weshouldrequirethemtoparticipateinaspecialprogram:Anycustomerwhopatronizestwoofthebusinesseswillreceiveasubstantialdiscountatthethird.Bymotivatingcustomerstopatronizeallthree,wewillthuscontributetotheprofitabilityofeachandmaximizeour>>>參考思...>>>參考范TheargumentstatesthatifbymotivatingcustomerstopatronizeallthreeBusinessesofCapitalInvestment,theprofitabilityofeachbusinesswillincreaseandmaximizereturnforCapitalinvestment.ToachievethisthefirmproposestoinitiateaprogramwhereifacustomerpatronizestwooftheBusinesses,hewillreceivesubstantialdiscountonthethird.HoweverthereareseveralassumptionsthattheargumentisbasedonforwhichitdoesnotgivesufficientFirstly,Theargumentassumesthatpeoplewillnototherwisegotoallthethreeplacesiftheygotothetwoplaces.Thereisnoevidencetosupportthisassumption.Forexample,certaindemographicgroupsmayenjoywatchingtheatre,playinggolfandmayliketoeatoutaswellfrequently.Theymaynotselecttwooutofthethree.SobygivingthemheavydiscountonsomethingthattheywouldhaveanywayschosenmayactuallynegativelyimpacttheSecondly,theargumentgivestheexampleofthesuccessofthethreebusinessesintheParkHalldistrict.Howeveritdoesnotclearlystatethereasonsbehindthesuccessofthebusinessesthere.ItappearsthatCapitalIdeaselectedthesebusinessestoinvestspecificallyfortheuniquecombinationwhichtheyfoundtobesuccessfulinParkHilldistrict.Ifthisisthecasethenthethreebusinessesarecomplementarytooneanotherandhencetheywillsucceedasagroup.SothereseemsnoreasontoexplicitlyaskcustomerpatronizethethreeatthecostofaInconclusiontheargumentisflawedfortheabovementionedreasons.Itcanbestrengthenedifmoreevidenceisgiventosubstantiatewhytheproposedprogramwouldwork.Withoutthesetheargumentremainsunconvincingandopento21.>>>考古原Thefollowing21.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheownerofCarlo'sClothingtothe"SinceDiscDepot,themusicstoreonthenextblock,begananewradioadvertisingcampaignyear,itsbusinesshasgrowndramatically,asevidencedbythelargeincreaseinfoottrafficintothestore.WhiletheDiscDepot'sownershaveapparentlybecomewealthyenoughtoretire,profitsatCarlo'sClothinghaveremainedstagnantforthepastthreeyears.Inordertoboostoursalesandprofits,weshouldthereforeswitchfromnewspaperadvertisingtofrequentradioadvertisementslikethoseforDisc>>>參考思1.錯誤類比：DDmusicstore與C的服飾店無可比性，不能說廣告就適用C3.因果關(guān)系：沒有說電臺廣告與業(yè)務(wù)量增長有必然因果關(guān)系。OtherfactorsotherthanradioadvertisementthatmaycontributetothebusinessgrowthofDiscdepotshouldbeconsideredandruledout.比如促銷，請了明星做活動等等。.22.Olympic古ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreportsenttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasorganizationslearnhowtothingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayserviceinthingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofits.”錯誤類比：Thefoodindustryisnotanalogoustothecolorfilmindustry.食品行業(yè)因果關(guān)系——忽略他因：Otherfactorsthatmaycontributetothecostdeclineoftheprintingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.彩色膠片例子中的成本降低不無根據(jù)假設(shè)：Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitousassumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandmaximizeprofitbecausethecompanyhasbeenconductedfor25years.因?yàn)?1)不是有經(jīng)驗(yàn)就可以節(jié)約成本(2)不是cost下降profit就會增加，只有在銷量不減少或者增加的情況下才成立>>>參考Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessingovera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusiontheauthorcitesthegeneralprinciplethat“ascoupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.Thisargumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.First,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousThereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheanalogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.TostrengthentheconclusionOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsandmaximumOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25yearsofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processingindustrywouldfurthersubstantiatetheauthor’s23.MarketCo.提高顧客>>>本月原V1MarketCo是個largesupermarketchainAresearchshowsthatlocalpeopleshopinlocalownedstores.它的marketingdirector覺得這是因?yàn)橛衏ustomerloyalties，所以suggesttoshiftthenationalbudgetfundingforadvertisingtolocalcommunityprojectssuchasbuildingchildrensoccerfieldsetc.這些方式可以increasemarketsharesandthusincrease>>>考V1題目說為了提高本地居民對MarketColoyaltyMarketCo.高自己的知名廟(oftenseen),這樣可以persuade居民去他那買東西,課外活勱,足球比賽藝術(shù)展覽神馬的。我就是主要吏槽他oftenseen丌一定能提高啊,loyalty和sales相關(guān)又丌是oftenseen就可以,V2MarketCoresearch,localconsumerwilldeveloployaltytothatcausethemtokeepshopping.所以這個公司的負(fù)責(zé)人建議MartketComovesometheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalcommunity.(V1BY?mining公司因?yàn)榍熬柏⒑?有然后調(diào)查顯示是因?yàn)閘oyalty問題。然后M就要資劣社區(qū)活勱,來提高?mining公司因?yàn)榍熬柏⒑?有然后調(diào)查顯示是因?yàn)閘oyalty問題。然后M就要資劣社區(qū)活勱,來提高loyalty,以提高在這個城市中的V3by(蔲拉表示跟JJ丌太一樣啊0,0哪有soccer,難道是狗主把這個題和16題搞混了是搞基建)localpeopleMarketCo買東西,increasethelocalmarketDevelopcustomerloyalty.大致是這樣的>>>參考思1.Thestatisticallyreliabilityofsurvey/research(whoconducted,whoorhowthesurveywere2.錯誤因果:調(diào)整宣傳的預(yù)算搞基建就能讓localpeople在MarketCo買東西?忠誠廟是一個漫長的過程,這樣直接assume太天真了啦3.無關(guān)假設(shè)movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingofincreasethelocalmarketshare,更丌能說就能develop24.校醫(yī)院私立醫(yī)院對>>>考古Thefollowingappeared24.校醫(yī)院私立醫(yī)院對>>>考古Thefollowingappearedinanarticleinthehealthsectionofa“Thereisacommonmisconceptionthatuniversityhospitalsare