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目錄別提蘋果：蒂姆.庫克先生打出現(xiàn)目錄別提蘋果：蒂姆.庫克先生打出現(xiàn)金LVMH：欲望帝如何冰箱里的垃圾郵打折心理無能走進(jìn)新時小臉等我說實(shí)注意：此電子講義是何凱文時文課程的配套講1.Don’tmentiontheatom別提核能的事兒 WhenGermanydecidedayearago,afterthedisaster,tophaseoutnuclearworried.Wouldthecountrybeableplants,whichsupplied23%ofitsby2022,economisttoreplaceits17nuclearelectricityin2010,withrenewableformsofenergy?Wouldelectricitypricesgothroughtheroof?WouldthemoveendangerGermany’sindustry?Itwillbeyearsbeforetheanswersareknownforsure.ButEnergiewende,asGermanscalltheenergyU-turn,hascompanies,whichwerealreadycompelledlastyeartoshuteightoftheirnuclearplantsforgood,areamongthebiglosers.AndtheirfatemayrevivehereticalthoughtsofareprieveforatomicHalfadecadeagothebigfour-E.ON,EnBW,RWE1Vattenfall-werestillwidelyseenasacartel.Theyprovided86%ofthepowersupplyandcontrolledmostofthedistributionnetwork.Profitswerejuicy,sharepriceshighandtheindustry’sbosseswerewelcomeguestsatVattenfall-werestillwidelyseenasacartel.Theyprovided86%ofthepowersupplyandcontrolledmostofthedistributionnetwork.Profitswerejuicy,sharepriceshighandtheindustry’sbosseswerewelcomeguestsatBerlin’schancellery.Inshort,lifewasgoodforGermany’senergygiants.Butthentheirfortunesturned.Inshortorder,thefirmsweredealttwobody-blows.Thefirsttheycouldhavecopedwith:theEuropeanCommissionforcedthemtospinofftheirtransmissionnetworks.ButtheeffectwascompoundedbytheEnergiewende,whichcurtailsthefirm’smostpredictablesourceofrevenue.Allnuclearplantshavetobetakenofflineby2022.Anddespitetheshutdown,thecompanieshavetopayanuclear-fueltaxof∈2.3billion($2.9billion)ayearuntilInthemeantime,thousandsofsubsidisedwindfarmsandsolararraysarehobblingtheearning-powerofconventionalpowerstations.Themiddaypeak,whenthegiantsusedtocommandpremiumelectricityprices,isundercutbysolarpower.Winterwindswhipawaythemarginsthatbig,inflexibleplantsused power-industriesstillexpectthepowerutilitiestotakeupthewhensunandwindareidle.LastFebruary,withallthe2 producerswereonlyjustabletokeepthelightson..牌Mr.Cookhasboughthimselfsomebreathingspacebyraisingplannedsharebuy-backsfrom$10billionto$60billionandincreasingdividendsby15%.However,hestillneedstoproducenewsensationalofferingstosupportfuturegrowth.EversincehereplacedSteveJobsatApple’shelm,speculationmountedthatthecompanyhaslostproducedtheiPhoneandiPad.Mr.Cook’sfansprotestthatthosealreadyhavecomeupwithanewunrealistic.Afewyearsbetweenbigabout.Andtheynotethatthemintingmoney.InthefirstsomeofthemagicwhothinkApplecategory-killerarebeingideasisnothingtoworryandtheof2013arewithrevenueof$43.6billion:an11%increasesameperiodin2012,andfigurethatexceedsthecombinedsalesofGoogleandMicrosoft.ButApple’smarginsarebeingsqueezedbytheoftheiPadmini,whichislesslucrativethanbiggeriPads.Initslatestquarterthefirm’sgrossmarginshrankyear-on-year,347.4%to37.5%,anditsquarterlynetprofitdroppedforthefirsttimeintenyears,from$11.6billionto$9.5billion.IfApplelaunchesalow-costiPhonetocompeteinemergingmarkets-andinthebusinessofpre-paidphones47.4%to37.5%,anditsquarterlynetprofitdroppedforthefirsttimeintenyears,from$11.6billionto$9.5billion.IfApplelaunchesalow-costiPhonetocompeteinemergingmarkets-andinthebusinessofpre-paidphonesthatdonotrequirealong-termsubscripiontoamobile-phoneoperate-itsmarginscouldbesquashedevenmore.Thatcouldaffectitsshareprice.BenReitzesofBarclays,abank,reckonsthateverypercentage-pointdeclineinApple’sgrossmarginequatestoadropof$1.40inearningspershare.ApplealsoneedstobeatbackrivalssuchasSamsungElectronics,whichhasemergedasamuscularcompetitorinsmartphones.Investorsparticularlywanttoseeitsresponsetotheriseof“phablets”-phoneswhosescreensarebiggerthanthoseofmostsmartphones,thoughnotasbigasabusinesses,itwillstillhavetokeepinventingnewproducts.firmisrumoredtobeworkingonasmartwatchandasmartwithassociatedapps.With435mcustomerswhichcelebratesitsItisalsolookingatmobilealreadyregisteredatitsiTunesstore, onApril28th,ithasNewofferingsintheseareas 4“amazing”Mr.Cookalludedtothisweek.Thebigquestioniswhethertheywillbeasrevolutionary-andasprofitable-astheproductsApplechurnedoutunderJobs.Mr.Cookhasplayedhiscashcard.Nowheneedstoturnuptrumpsontheinnovationfront,too.3.LVMH:“amazing”Mr.Cookalludedtothisweek.Thebigquestioniswhethertheywillbeasrevolutionary-andasprofitable-astheproductsApplechurnedoutunderJobs.Mr.Cookhasplayedhiscashcard.Nowheneedstoturnuptrumpsontheinnovationfront,too.3.LVMH:TheEmpireofDesireLVMH：欲望帝國France’straditionofmakingexquisiteluxuriesdatesbackatleasttothecourtofLouisXIV.ThesunkingfinancedartisanswhomadebeautifulandlargelyuselessthingsforthecourtofVersailles.BernardArnaultmightbehisheir.Mr.Arnaultisthechairman,chiefexecutiveandcontrollingshareholderofMoetHennessyLouisVuitton(LVMH),theworld’slargestluxurygroup.Overthepastquarter-centuryhehastransformedasmall,nearlydefunctclothingmanufacturerintoaconglomeratethatcontrolsmorethan60luxurybrands.CreditSuisse,abank,predictsthatLVMH’scombinedsales∈27billion($33billion)thisyear.Itsprofitsina∈cork-popping∈62billion.LVMHismoreprofitablethan5luxury“LVMHislikeaminiGermany,”boastsaninsider.Likethatcountry’sMittelstand,ithasbuiltareputationforcraftsmanshipandqualitythatpeoplearehappytopayextrafor.Theluxury“LVMHislikeaminiGermany,”boastsaninsider.Likethatcountry’sMittelstand,ithasbuiltareputationforcraftsmanshipandqualitythatpeoplearehappytopayextrafor.Thedifferenceis,theMittelstandmakesunsexythingssuchasmachinetools handbagsandotherobjectsof opportunitiesabroad.Afteryearsofhardmarketing,ithaspersuadedmuchofAsia’snewmiddleclassthatitswaresconferawhiffofEuropeansophistication.SalesinAsia(Japanexcepted)accountedfor27%ofthetotalin2011,upfrom17%in2001.InJapan,whichgenerated15%ofthegroup’ssalesadecadeago,astartling85%ofwomennowownaLouisVuittonproduct.IttakesararetalenttobeubiquitousandyetretainanairofAfinalsimilarityisthat,liketheMittelstand,LVMHisupoflotsoffamilyfirms.Thedifferenceisthattheones Somedidn’tobject.LastyearLVMHboughtBulgari,Italianjeweller,∈4.3billion.TheBulgarifamily6happytotakehappytotakethecash.TheirbusinesshadhitaroughpatchthecollapseofLehmanBrothersin2008,andtheythoughtMr.Arnaultwouldmakeagoodsugardaddyfortheirbrand.4.Howtomakeakilling如何一夜暴富Theclubisareminderthatsomethingsaremoreimportantthanmoney.Buttheworldofmoneyishardtoignore.Harrods,aposhdepartmentstore,isjustaroundthecorner.ARussianoligarchisnoisilybuildingapalaceacrosstheroad.Manymembershavetothinkaboutmakingalivingnowthatthearmyisshrinking.Theywonder:aretheskillsthatarecelebratedinsidetheclubusefulintheworldoutsideitswindows?Onceuponatimebusinesscouldnotgetenoughofthesmellofcordite.Tycoonsreferredtothemselvesas“captainsofindustry”andcrafted“strategies”(fromtheGreekwordfor“general”)fortheirtroops.Theytalkedofwaging“war”ontheirrivals.TheyrelaxedbyreadingSunTzu’s“TheArtofWar”.Butmorerecentlyattitudeshavechanged.Businesspeoplearguethatmilitary-stylecommand-and-controlsystemsareoutofdateinaworldofknowledgeworkersandfluidalliance.ThisargumentprovokesderisionintheSpecialForcesSir.MichaelRose,aretiredgeneralwhospentpartofhiscareerwithBritain’sSAS(SpecialAirService),pointsoutthat7 “high-performanceteams”.Peoplewhoare “high-performanceteams”.Peoplewhoaredroppedenemylineshavenochoicebuttorelyontheirownwitsandmakethemostoflimitedresources.Sir.Michaelalsopoints “mission-approach”-,acommanderdefinestheoverallmissionbutthenleavestheofficersonthegroundtodecidehowtoexecuteit.Plentyofretiredofficersarguethatbusinesspeoplehavemuchtolearnfromthearmedservices.Forexample,businesstheoristsincreasinglyemphasisetheimportanceofcorporateculture,yetmanynewbusinessesdoadismaljobofnurturingit.Themilitaryservices,bycontrast,havebeenadeptatpreservingtheircultureatatimeofsocialturmoil.Granted,theyhavesometimesbeenslowtochange.Americaonlyliftedthebanonopenlygaytroopsin2011,andonwomenincombatlastmonth.Butstill,armiesaremuchbetterthanotherinstitutionsatbuildingalifelongespritdecorps.Militarymottoesmakestrongmencry:“Thefew,theproud”;“Whodareswins”.Mostcorporatemissionstatementsmakedeskwarriorscringewith85.Spaminthefridge冰箱里的垃圾郵件5.Spaminthefridge冰箱里的垃圾郵件“TheInternetofthings”isoneofthebuzziestbitsofaroundinconsumerelectronics.Theideaistoputcomputersinallkindsofproducts-televisions,washingmachines,thermostats,refrigerators-thathavenot,traditionally,beencomputerised,andthenconnectthoseproductstotheInternet.Ifyouareinmarketing,thisisagreatidea.BeingabletobrowsetheInternetfromyourtelevision,switchonyourwashingmachinefromtheofficeorhaveyourfridgee-mailyoutosaythatyouarerunningoutoforangejuiceisagoodwaytosellmoretelevisions,washingmachinesandfridges.Ifyouareacomputer-securityresearcher,though,itisalittleworrying.For,asownersofdesktopcomputersarealltooaware,theInternetisatwo-waystreet.Onceadeviceisonline,peopleotherthanitsownersmaybeabletoconnecttoitandpersuadeittodotheiracomputer-Proofpointsaidithadseenexactlythathappening.Itreportedtheexistenceofagroupofcompromisedcomputerswhichwasatleastpartlycomprisedofsmartdevices,includinghomerouters,burglaralarms,webcamsandarefrigerator.Thedeviceswerebeingusedtosendspamand“phishing”e-mails,9containmalwarethattriestostealusefulinformationsuchasThenetworkisnotparticularlybig,asthesethingsgo.Itcontainsaround100,000devicesandhassentabout750,000e-mails.Butitisaproofofconcept,andmaybeaharbingerofworsetocontainmalwarethattriestostealusefulinformationsuchasThenetworkisnotparticularlybig,asthesethingsgo.Itcontainsaround100,000devicesandhassentabout750,000e-mails.Butitisaproofofconcept,andmaybeaharbingerofworsetocome-forthecomputersinsmartdevicesmaketemptingtargetsforwritersofmalware.Securityisoftenlax,orexistent.ManyofthecomputersidentifiedbyProofpointseemhavebeenhackedbypasswordsthatbother.)Thetryingthefactory-setusernamesandaresupposedtochange.(Mostinsmartdevicesarebasedona compromisemanyothersatthesametime.Andsmartdeviceslackmanyoftheprotectionsavailabletodesktopcomputers,whichcanrunantivirusprogramsandwhichreceiveregularsecurityupdatesfromsoftware-makers.RossAnderson,acomputer-securityresearcheratUniversity,hasbeenworryingabouttherisksofsmartdevicesforyears.Spame-mailsarebadenough,butworseispossible.Smartdevicesarefull-fledgedcomputers.Thatmeansthereisnowhytheycouldnotdoeverythingadesktopcanbepersuadedtodo-hostchildpornography,say,orholdwebsiteshostagebydesktopcanbepersuadedtodo-hostchildpornography,say,orholdwebsiteshostagebyfloodingthemwithuselessdata.Anditispossibletodreamupevenmoreserioussecuritythreats.“Whathappensifsomeonewritessomemalwarethattakesoverairconditioners,andthenturnsthemonandoffremotely?”saysDr.Anderson.“YoucouldbringdownapowergridifyouwantedThatmaysoundparanoid,butincomputersecuritytoday’sparanoiaisoftentomorrow’sreality.Fornow,saysDr.Anderson,theeconomicsofthesmart-devicebusinessmeanthatfewsellersaretakingsecurityseriously.Propersecuritycostsmoney,afterall,andmakesithardertogetproductspromptlytomarket.HewouldlikelegislationcompellingsellerstoensurethatanydevicewhichcanbeconnectedtotheInternetissecure.Thatwouldplaceliabilityforhackssquarelyonthesellers’shoulders.Fornow,hehashadnoluck.ButProofpoint’sdiscoveryseemsunlikelytobeaone-6.Thepsychologyofdiscounting打折心理學(xué)Whenretailerswanttoenticecustomerstobuyaparticularproduct,theytypicallyofferitatadiscount.AccordingtoanewstudytobepublishedintheJournalofMarketing,theyaremissingaAteamofresearchers,ledAteamofresearchers,ledbyAkshayRaooftheUniversityconsumers’attitudestodiscounting.Shoppers,theyfound,muchprefergettingsometingextrafreetogettingsomethingcheaper.Themainreasonisthatmostpeopleareuselessatfractions.Consumersoftenstruggletorealise,forexample,thata50%increaseinquantityisthesameasa33%discountinprice.Theyoverwhelminglyassumetheformerisbettervalue.Inanexperiment,theresearcherssold73%morehandlotionwhenitwasofferedinabonuspackthanwhenitcarriedanequivalentdiscount(evenafterallothereffects,suchasadesiretostockpile,werecontrolledfor).Thisnumericalblindspotremainsevenwhenthedealclearlyfavoursthediscountedproduct.Inanotherexperiment,thistimeonhisundergraduates,Mr.Raoofferedtwodealsonloosecoffeebeans:33%extrafreeor33%offtheprice.Thediscountisbyfarthebetterproposition,butthesupposedlycleverstudentsviewedthemasequivalent.Studieshaveshownotherwaysinwhichretailerscanexploitconsumers’innumeracy.Oneistobefuddlethemwithdoublediscounting.Peoplearemorelikelytoseeabargaininaproductthathasbeenreducedby20%,andthenbyanadditionalthanonewhichhasbeensubjecttoanequivalent,one-off,40%thanonewhichhasbeensubjecttoanequivalent,one-off,40%Marketingtypescandrawlessonsbeyondjustpricing,saysMr.Rao.Whenadvertisinganewcar’sefficiency,forexample,itismoreconvincingtotalkaboutthenumberofextramilespergallonitdoes,ratherthantheequivalentpercentagefallinfuelTheremaybelessonsforregulatorstoo.Evenwell-educatedshoppersareeasilyfoxed.Sendingeveryonebacktoschoolformathsrefresher-coursesseemsoutofthequestion.Butmoreprominentlydisplayedunitpricesinshopsandadvertisementswouldbeagreathelp.7.Omnipotent,oromnishambles?Cross-countrydealsintheadvertisingindustrycanbepainfulaffairs.LookwhathappenedtoGuyMacKendrick,theyoungexecutivesentbyhisLondon-basedagencytooverseeitsacquisitionofaNewYorkrival,in“MadMen”(yes,itisnowcompulsorytorefertothehittelevisionseriesinallarticlesabouttheadbusiness).Thestaffthrowapartytocelebratethetakeover,andadrunkensecretarydrivesalawnmowerthroughtheshreddingMr.MacKendrick’sOnJuly28th,however,therewerenobizarregardeningaccidentsasexecutivesoftworeal-lifeadvertisingfirmstoastedtheirmergerwithchampagneinOnJuly28th,however,therewerenobizarregardeningaccidentsasexecutivesoftworeal-lifeadvertisingfirmstoastedtheirmergerwithchampagneinParis.MauriceLevy,thebossoftheFrenchPublicisGroup,andJohnWren,theheadofitsAmericancompetitorOmnicom,toastedthebirthofPublicisOmnicom,whichwillovertakeBritish-basedWPPascombined2012revenuesof$23billionandamarketvalue$35ToplacateFrenchfearsofforeighdominationofoneofthecountry’smostprominentcompanies,forthetimebeingthecombinedfirmwillkeepheadquartersinbothParisandNewYorkandbelistedonexchangesinbothcities.Mr.WrenandMr.Levywillserveasjointchiefexecutivesfortwo-and-a-halfyears,afterwhichMr.Levywillbecomenon-executivechairmanandMr.Wrenwillcontinuealoneasboss.Thisisnoloveaffair,buttherearereasonsformutualattraction.Publicishasmoreexposuretoemergingmarketsanddigitaladvertising(onwebsites,mobiledevicesandthelike),themainsourcesofgrowthfortomorrow’sadmen.InreturnOmnicomprovidesPubliciswithscale-itisthebiggerofthetwo-andasolutiontoitssuccessionproblem.MrLevy,who71,hasbeentryingtofindareplacementforyears.HeproposedthemergerwhenhemetMr.WrenatapartyinNewYork.Therearerisks,ofcourse.Someadvertiserswhoaregreatrivals-suchasCokeandPepsi,orAT&TandVerizon-willfindtheiraccountsbeinghandledbysubsidiariesofthesamegroup,andmayneedpersuadingnottotaketheirbusiness 71,hasbeentryingtofindareplacementforyears.HeproposedthemergerwhenhemetMr.WrenatapartyinNewYork.Therearerisks,ofcourse.Someadvertiserswhoaregreatrivals-suchasCokeandPepsi,orAT&TandVerizon-willfindtheiraccountsbeinghandledbysubsidiariesofthesamegroup,andmayneedpersuadingnottotaketheirbusiness However,scalealsopromisestobringbigbenefits.LevyandWrenpredictthemergerwillhelpthem$500mayearincosts,andsomeanalyststhinkitcouldbe8.Timedout走進(jìn)新時代 Warner, becomingbossofTimeWarner,heoversawitshighlyprofitablepremiumtelevisionchannel,HBO.HispassionisTV,nottext.ThereforefewwhoknowMr.BewkesweresurprisedwhenheannouncedonMarch7ththatTimeWarnerwouldspinoffTimeInc.,itsmagazineunit,bytheendofMagazinesarenotwheremoneyinmediaistoday.Time Magazinesarenotwheremoneyinmediaistoday.Time EntertainmentWeekly,isoneofAmerica’soldestandmosticonicmagazinecompanies,butithasbecomeadragonTimeWarner’sbottomline.LastyearrevenueforTimeInc.Was$3.4billion,down7%fromayearearlieranddownmorethan26%fromaadvertisinganduninspiredleadership.LauraLang,TimeInc.’sbosswhoformerlyranDigitas,adigitaladvertisingagency,tookoverafterJackGriffinwasfired.FewfeltMs.LangeverhadarealvisionforwhatTimeInc.Shouldbecome.ShewillstepdownwhenTimeInc.Becomesitsownpubiccompany.ThedecisiontospinoffTimeInc.CameafternegotiationswithMeredith,anothermagazinepublisher,whichspecialisesinwomen’smagazines,collapsed.TimeWarneroriginallywantedtokeepcontroloftitlesthathadsynergieswithitscableproperties,suchasTimeandSportsIllustrated,butlaterrethoughtthatstrategy.AdealwithMeredithwouldhavebeen“anelegantsaysPeterKreisky,amediaconsultantandformeradvisortoTimeInc..MeredithhadsynergieswithmanyofTimetitles.Thecombinedcompaniescouldhaveconsolidatedsomeoftheirmagazines,editorialstaffsandadvertisingsalesteams.EarlierthisyearTimeInc.Alreadyannounceditwouldlayoff6%ofitsworkforce.titles.Thecombinedcompaniescouldhaveconsolidatedsomeoftheirmagazines,editorialstaffsandadvertisingsalesteams.EarlierthisyearTimeInc.Alreadyannounceditwouldlayoff6%ofitsworkforce.NowTimeInc.mustfacetheworld,andshareholdersTimeInc.divisions.ThatCorporation,beenbuttressedbyTimeWarner’sflush rivalmedia thatiscontrolledby companiesandseparateitspublishingassetsfromitsfilmandTVTheTribuneCompanyistryingtosellitsnewspaperstofocusonitsTVassets.Divorceishard,especiallywhenitisspelledoutin9.Facebookandtheunder-13s小臉譜 networks,saysanewreportbythePewResearchCentre,athink-tank.Butitisthesmallsurfers,notthesilverones,whoarecurrentlymakingwaves.Facebookisexaminingwaystoallowchildrenundertheageof13touseitsservice,withsomeformofparentalsupervision.Ifthishappens-andFacebookstressesthatithasnotyetdecidedwhethertogoahead-itbeaventureintounchartedCriticshowlthatyoungchildrenlackthebeaventureintounchartedCriticshowlthatyoungchildrenlackthematuritytocopewithsocialnetworks.TheyalsoworrythatFacebookwillfinddeviouswaystomakemoneyfromnaivechildrenor,morelikely,theirparents.“Wewouldbegivingthekeystothe ChildrenO,apressureThereisalsothethornyquestionofhowFacebook childrenunder13astheyusetheInternet.Thelawstipulatesthatonlineserviceswithyoungstersamongtheircustomersmustobtaintheconsentofthechildren’sparentsbeforecollectingdatafromthem.Parentsalsoneedtobeabletoreviewtheirchildren’sdataandhavethesedeletediftheysowish.TheonerousnatureoftheseandotherCOPPAprovisionsexplainswhysocialnetworkshavetendedtoshuntheyoung.Facebookinsiststhatyouhavetobe13touseitsservice.Thesnagisthatchildrenfibabouttheirage.AstudybyConsumerReportsfoundthat5.6mchildrenunder13wereusingFacebookinAmericaalone.AnothersurveyofAmericanparentsfoundthatadultsoftenknewthattheirchildrenwerethan13whentheyjoinedFacebook.Inmanycases,theparentshelpedthemtosetuptheiraccounts.Regulatorshavenoticed.Facebook’scurrentmusingsmayreflectthethan13whentheyjoinedFacebook.Inmanycases,theparentshelpedthemtosetuptheiraccounts.Regulatorshavenoticed.Facebook’scurrentmusingsmayreflectthefearthatthefirmwillrunintotroubleifitdoesnothing.Italreadyhasslightlymorerobustprivacysettingsforchildrenbetweentheagesof13and17.Butitwouldneedafartighterregimeforyoungerchildren,saysSarahDowneyofAb