四年級下冊英語-Unit-1-My-school-Part-A-人教PEP版下載

CHAPTER1

productsandmarkets

CHAPTER1

productsandmarketsInthisChapterthetimevalueofmoneyanintroductiontoequities,commodities,currenciesandindicesfixedandfloatinginterestratesfuturesandforwardsno-arbitrage,oneofthemainbuildingblocksoffinancetheoryInthisChapterThesimplestconceptinfinanceisthatofthetimevalueofmoney;$1todayisworthmorethan$1inayear’stime.Thisisbecauseofallthethingswecandowith$1overthenextyear.ThesimplestconceptinfinancSimpleinterestiswhentheinterestyoureceiveisbasedonlyontheamountyouinvestinitially,whereascompoundinterestiswhenyoualsogetinterestonyourinterest.

Compoundinterestisthemaincaseofrelevance.Andcompoundinterestcomesintwoforms,discretelycompoundedandcontinuouslycompounded.SimpleinterestiswhentheinSimpleinterest:discretelycompounded

continuouslycompounded.Simpleinterest:EQUITIES:Themostbasicoffinancialinstrumentsistheequity,stockorshare.Thisistheownershipofasmallpieceofacompany.EQUITIES:Thebehaviorofthequotedpricesofstocksisfarfrombeingpredictable.Ifwecouldpredictthebehaviorofstockpricesinthefuturethenwecouldbecomeveryrich.Althoughmanypeoplehaveclaimedtobeabletopredictpriceswithvaryingdegreesofaccuracy,noonehasyetmadeacompletelyconvincingcase.ThebehaviorofthequotedpriInthisbookIamgoingtotakethepointofviewthatpriceshavealargeelementofrandomness.Thisdoesnotmeanthatwecannotmodelstockprices,butitdoesmeanthatthemodelingmustbedoneinaprobabilisticsense.InthisbookIamgoingtotakOneofthesimplestrandomprocessesisthetossingofacoin.問題1：用扔硬幣的方式模擬股價運動。OneofthesimplestrandomproTotheaverageinvestorthevalueinholdingthestockcomesfromthedividendsandanygrowthinthestock’svalue.TotheaverageinvestorthevaCOMMODITIES：Commoditiesareusuallyrawproductssuchaspreciousmetals,oil,foodproductsetc.The

pricesoftheseproductsareunpredictablebutoftenshowseasonaleffects.Scarcityofthe

productresultsinhigherprices.Commoditiesareusuallytradedbypeoplewhohavenoneed

oftherawmaterial.COMMODITIES：CURRENCIES：Anotherfinancialquantityweshalldiscussistheexchangerate,therateatwhichonecurrency

canbeexchangedforanother.Thisistheworldofforeignexchange,orForexorFXforshort.

Somecurrenciesarepeggedtooneanother,andothersareallowedtofloatfreely.CURRENCIES：Althoughthefluctuationinexchangeratesis

unpredictable,thereisalinkbetweenexchange

ratesandtheinterestratesinthetwocountries.Iftheinterestrateondollarsisraisedwhilethe

interestrateonpoundssterlingstaysfixedwewouldexpecttoseesterlingdepreciatingagainst

thedollarforawhile.Centralbankscanuseinterestratesasatoolformanipulatingexchange

rates,butonlytoadegree.AlthoughthefluctuationinexINDICES：Formeasuringhowthestockmarket/economyisdoingasawhole,therehavebeendeveloped

thestockmarketindices.Atypicalindexismadeupfromtheweightedsumofaselectionor

basketofrepresentativestocks.INDICES：FIXED-INCOMESECURITIES：Therearetwotypesofinterestpayments,fixedandfloating,whichcanbeseeninmanyfinancialinstruments.FIXED-INCOMESECURITIES：INFLATION-PROOFBONDS：ArecentadditiontothelistofbondsissuedbytheUSgovernmentistheindex-linkedbond.ThesehavebeenaroundintheUKsince1981,andhaveprovidedaverysuccessfulwayofensuringthatincomeisnoterodedbyinflation.INFLATION-PROOFBONDS：IntheUKinflationismeasuredbytheRetailPriceIndexorRPI.Thisindexisameasureofyear-on-yearinflation,usinga‘basket’ofgoodsandservicesincludingmortgageinterestpayments.Theindexispublishedmonthly.IntheUStheinflationindexistheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI).IntheUKinflationismeasureFORWARDSANDFUTURES：Aforwardcontractisanagreementwhereonepartypromisestobuyanassetfromanotherpartyatsomespecifiedtimeinthefutureandatsomespecifiedprice.Nomoneychangeshandsuntilthedeliverydateormaturityofthecontract.Thetermsofthecontractmakeitanobligationtobuytheassetatthedeliverydate,thereisnochoiceinthematter.Theassetcouldbeastock,acommodityoracurrency.FORWARDSANDFUTURES：FORWARDSANDFUTURES：Afuturescontractisverysimilartoaforwardcontract.Futurescontractsareusuallytradedthroughanexchange,whichstandardizesthetermsofthecontracts.Theprofitorlossfromthefuturespositioniscalculatedeverydayandthechangeinthisvalueispaidfrom