歐洲購(gòu)電協(xié)議市場(chǎng)展望2024

EUROPEANMARKET

OUTLOOK

2024Preparingforimpact:Thesilverliningaftertheclouds2EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024TABLE

OF

CONTENTSExecutive

SummaryIntroductionACT

I37Chapter

1:

Approaching

the

Golden

PPA

Era1.1

Thebigpicture:2018-2023year-by-yearevolution1.2

Data-drivenheadlinespaintingthe2023picture91013Chapter

2:

PPA

advancements

and

innovations2.1

HybridPPAs

enteredthescene2.2

EarlysignsofPPAs

forGreenH2Production2.3

Aggregatingdemand:Multi-buyerPPAs2.4

Nextfrontier:24/7GreenEnergyPurchasing2727293132ACT

IIChapter

3:

Prominent

events

of

20233535394244483.1.

Volatilityandpricesenroutetostabilisation3.2.?

Market?fundamentals?shook?up??nancing?costs?3.3.

Short-termPPAs

showedmixmovements3.4.

MoretroublewithBaseloadPPAs3.5.

TheregulatorypendulumswungbackChapter

4:

Top

Predictions

for

202451525253534.1.4.2.4.3.4.4.GermanywilltoppleSpaininPPA

activityThePPA

Marketwillsurpass20GWThegeographicalscopeofHybridPPAs

willexpandbeyondGBTheshareofUtilityPPAs

willincreaseConclusion5455Legal

Disclaimer3EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

20241.EXECUTIVE

SUMMARYKey

?ndings

from

our

European

PPA

Market

Outlook

2024

report:The

PPA

Market

entered

its

Golden

Erawith

record

activity

–

Followinga

stabilisingenvironmentinthefundamentalsofdeal-making,overthepast

twelvemonthsourPPA

TrackerPPAs,

andservicesinbothbuyersandsellersmanagingtheirrisks.Spain

and

Germany

accounted

for

50%recordeda

hefty

16.2GW

of

disclosed

contracted

of

2023’s

volumes–Eventhoughwevolumes–

anincreaseofmorethan40%vis-à-vis2022.Dealcountpeakedat272PPAs

–

anincreaseofanimpressive65%from2022!sawvividactivityacrossEurope,8.4GWwereconcentratedinSpainandGermany,accountingfor51%ofthetotal16.2GW.TheMediterraneanQueenkeptitsTop

positionfor?a??fth?consecutive?year,?but?its?throne?was?challenged?for?the??rst?time?ever.?In?deal?count,?thepictureismorebalanced.The

balance

between

corporate

and

utilityofftakes

improved–

CorporatesmaintainedtheleadpositionindrivingthePPA

market,buttherewasanuptickinutilityofftakeactivity.Reducedvolatilitylevels,andstrongcorporatedemandwerethekeydriversbehindutilityappetite.Iberdrola

was

the

Top

Seller

both

by

volumeand

deal

count

–Thegoldmedalcomesduetoninedealswithcorporates,amountingto908MW.SixtookplaceinGermanyonthebackofIberdrola’soffshorewindcapacityinthecountry,followedbytwosolardealsinSpain,andoneonshorewinddealagaininthelandofEnergiewende.Statkraftwasthemostactivesellerwith19deals.Corporate

showed

preference

to

PPAsdirectly

with

projects–Outofthe216CorporatePPAs

thatdisclosedtheseller,44%werecontractedwithautility,withtheremaining56%havingadeveloper/IPP/FundManagerasthecounterparty.We

believethedatashowthepreferenceofcorporatestocontractdirectlywithprojectstoillustrateadditionalitymoreclearly,especiallywhentakingintoconsiderationthatmanyutilitiescontractwithcorporatesonthebackofowngeneration.Mr

Bezos

is

back

to

the

Top

Buyer

position–In2023,Amazon’sactivityreturnedtotheEuropeancontinent,leadingtheITconglomeratetocontractabulky1.87GWacrosssevendeals.Thecorporatealsotopsthelistbydealcount.The

role

of

utilities

in

the

PPA

Marketevolved–Tracking

onlytheofftakeactivityofutilitiesdoesnotpaintthecompletepictureoftheirimpactinthePPA

space.Ascoreriskmanagers,thecontributionsofutilitiestothemarkethaveexpandedthroughback-to-backInformation

Technology

still

on

top–ITconglomeratesmaintaintheirtopranking,withatotalof3.6GWacross25deals.ConsumerStaplesalsomaintaineditsleadingpositionintermsofdealcountwhilealsojumpingtothesecondpositionvolumes-wise.4EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024Volatility

headaches

made

corporates

morerisk-aware

–

Last

year

proved

thatvolatilityledtoa

permanentshift

inprocurement

strategies,asmanyenergy

intensives

madecorporate

PPAsa

prominent

andconsistent

hedgingtool.Wealsonotedincreased

awareness

ofpriceandpro?le?risk,?which?translates?to?how?different?PPA

volumes

are

priced.Dueto2022’s

volatility,somedealswere

pricedunderwrong

valuationassumptions,potentiallyleavingcorporatespayinghigherthanmarket

pricesfora

longterm.PPAs

for

Green

H2

Production

showedearly

signs–Anothernotabletrendin2023wastherapidgrowthofPPAs

destinedtopowerupcominggreenhydrogenandammoniaplants,withamixofnuancespaintingthewholepicture.PPAs

linkedtogreenhydrogenandammoniaproductionwereannouncedinNorway,FranceandGermany,leveragingnewandexistingcapacity.RenewableenergyisheavilyneededtofeedanyPower-to-Xproject.However,thesweetspotliesinthedeltabetweenprojecteconomicsandPPA

prices–andthislandscapeisstillevolving.Solar

PPA

volumes

quadruple

both

onshoreand

offshore

wind–SolarPVwasbyfarmorepopularinPPA

deal-making,holdingthelion’ssharewithatotalof10.5GW–or,

almost65%oftheyear’s16.2GWPPA

volumesacross160deals.Onshorewindsaw2.3GWacross58deals,whileoffshorewindsaw2GWacross20deals.Multi-buyer

PPAs

increased–Multi-buyerPPAs,

alsoknownasAggregatedPPAs,

arenotnewtotheEuropeanPPA

Market,assuchdeals,inprinciple,emergedin2016.However,2023sawtheconceptmaturinginanacceleratedmannerwithatotaloffoursuchannouncements.Balancing

contracts

are

becoming

pivotalin

a

revenue’s

stack–In2023,thepricingofbalancingagreementsmirroredthedownwardtrajectoryofpowerprices,butdespitedroppingtoapproximatelyEUR3/MWh,theystillremainedathigherthanthelong-termaverage.Amidtighteningmargins,bothBalancingcontractandGoOssalesoptimisationbecomeimportantpriorities.Inspiteofincreasedinterestintheconcept,webelievegovernment-backedcreditguaranteeschemeswouldbeamoreimpactfultooltoincreasethepoolofSMEswillingtobuy.

Thesophisticationofsellersandinclusiveguaranteeschemescouldbethemaintwodriversofthetrend.Hybrid

PPAs

entered

the

scene

–

Themomentumaround

renewables-plus-storageincreased?signi?cantly?over?2023,?as?most?players

are

lookingateitherintroducing

storageintheirportfolio

orincreasing

capacity.

Theimpetusalsomanifested

intheEuropean

PPAThe

concept

of

24/7

Green

EnergyPurchasing

advanced–Themorenichetrendtoenergyprocurementisdrivenbycorporatesinterestedinhourlymatchingofconsumptioninlieuoftheprevalentannualconsumptionmarket?through?the?emergence?of?the??rst?Hybrid?

matchingmodel.LateststudiesshowedthatPPAs

for

large-scalesubsidy-free

solarassets.ontopofimprovedgreencredentialsandmoreimpactfuladditionality,suchanapproachalsoillustrates?price?hedging?bene?ts.?An?optimised?portfolioofwindandsolarPPAs

couldbeenoughtostarta24/7journeyandachieve60-75%hourlymatching.Gridconnectionsavingsareacoreattractionforco-location.Still,thecombinationofvaluecreationfromgrid-levelservicesalongsideoptimisationofasset-levelrevenuesepitomisesthedriverbehindthepromisinglandofthebusinessmodel.5EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024Volatility

and

prices

en

route

to

stabilisation–

implementationofrevenuecaps.We

believeThe

year

2023wascharacterisedbya

consistent

thatsomeplayersviewedthisapproachhighlydownwardtrajectory

ofgasandelectricityprices,

opportunisticallyandnotasastrategicriskresultinginreducedvolatilitylevelsinpowermarketscomparedtotheyear

before.Whenlookingatthebigpicture,itseemsthatEuropehasentereda

new

eraofprolongedvolatility,

fornowmostlydrivenbyfossilfuelpricingrisksandmacroeconomics,withcannibalizationriskclosetoenteringtheconversation.managementtool,despitetheevidentupsideeveninalessextremepricingenvironment.Baseload

PPAs

were

in

more

trouble–Over2023,theappetiteforBaseloadPPAs

wasmixed–withmostsellersbeingincreasinglycautiousdespitethepricepremiumofthevolumestructure.CertainbankruptcieslinkedtoSweden’screatedfurtheruncertaintyinthemarket.Thereweretimeswhenwesawarearrangementofhowsomemarketparticipantsview?the?risk?pro?le?of?BL?PPAs,?classifying?it?as?riskierthanamerchantapproach.The

PEXA

Euro

Composite

dropped

35%year-on-year?–?From?the??rst?day?of?January?at78.7EUR/MWhtothelastdayofDecember2023at50.1EUR/MWh,theEUROCompositedecreasedby35%-withtheaveragethroughouttheyearstandingat58EUR/MWh.However,

we

believe

BLPPAs

couldbeoneofthemost

cost-optimalhedginginstrumentsonDecreased

volatility

reduced

risk

discounts–On

the

back

of

lowervolatility

and

high

corporate

a

case-by-casebasis,

ifthey

are

structured

indemand,riskdiscountsfactoredintoPPApricingtocompensateformarket,technology,and?structure-speci?c?risks?have?decreased?substantiallycomparedto2022levels.SpainandGermanyareprimeexamples.Nonetheless,cannibalizationriskisfactoredmoreaggressivelyinPay-as-Produced

(PAP)

PPAs.a

risk-adjusted

manner.

BLPPAs

needtobeapproached

witha

monitoringapproach,

contrarytothe‘sell-and-forget’

mindsetofPAP

sellers.The

regulatory

pendulum

swung

back

–Followingtheabruptreturnofregulatoryrisk,in2023?the?picture?changed?signi?cantly?due?to?the?expirationofmostwindfalltaxmechanismsandtheemergenceofsupportive

regulationformanyaspectsofthePPA

market.EU’sDelegatedActcatalysedinfantactivityofrenewable

PPAs

forhydrogen?production.?France?introduced?its??rst?creditguaranteeschemewithmorecountriessettofollowsuitunderEU’sdirectives.Market

fundamentals

shook

up

?nancingcosts

–Followingtheprogressivesettlingofthepricingandregulatoryturmoil,therenewablesindustrywasconfrontedbyasnowballeffectofchangesinmarketfundamentals,resultinginhigher-than-averageconstruction,operational,andfundingcostsforrenewableassets.Challenges?in??nancing?costs?and?capex?are?catalysinginterestinsqueezingreturnmargins,asmarketplayersarelookingtomakethemostoftheirportfolio.However,eventhoughEUhasgiventhePPAmarketitsblessingandsupport,there’s

nomarketconsensusonwhetheraggressivedeploymentofCfDschemescangohandinhandwithPPAs.Short-term

PPAs

showed

mixed

movements–Short-termPPAs

differlargelyintenor.Theirrangespansacrossweeks,months,orupto?ve?years.?On?the?back?of?that?note,?the?picture?in2023wasbothpositiveandnegative.PPAsof1-year>tenor,part

ofadynamicsellingstrategycomprisedofweeks-longandmonths-longPPAs,

tookthebiggesthitduetotheTop

predictions

for

2024:Germany

will

topple

Spain

in

PPA

activity1The

PPA

Market

will

surpass

20GW2The

geographical

scope

of

Hybrid

PPAs3will

expand

beyond

GBThe

share

of

Utility

PPAs

will

increase46EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

2023TOP

BUYER16.2GW10.5GW#1602.3GW#582GW#20272

dealsTOP

SELLERPPA

deal

?ow

by

disclosed

contracted

capacity,2018–2023

(GW)Utility4Corporate+41%20.96GW#2316.2013.303.7GW#4111.457.986.5933.39201851GW#243.7GW#41201920202021202220230.95GW#9EURO

Composite

(EUR/MWh),

2023Volatility

of

DE

Y+1

Futures

(%),

2023-35%80757065605550451009080706050403020100587EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

20242.INTRODUCTIONHere

comes

the

sunDuringthisthoroughanalytical

exercise,

we

hadfundiscovering

exciting

datainsights,

challengedeachother,

andspentlongperiodstrying

tocrackthecodetounderstand

themarket’s

challenges–whichwere

notabsentfrom

thescene,atall.Thesignsthattheairof2023wasdifferentappearedsinceitsearlydays.Itseemsthathardlessonsfromtheyearbefore;anunstoppablecorporatearmyathirstforgreenenergy;andthenon-negotiablemandatetopushthroughasmartenergytransitioncatalysedafreshmindset,mostly.Ourrecipeissimple:understandwhathappened,putitincontext,andbrainstormourfutureexpectations.Followingthesuccessofpreviousyears,we’re

thrilledtopresentthefourtheditionofoursignatureseries,Pexapark’sEuropeanPPA

MarketOutlook2024.Over2023,Europe’s

PPA

universeentereditsGoldenEra.Theshadowsofthepeaksoftheenergypricingandavailabilitycrisiswerestillvisiblethroughouttheyear.Sometimesinatoughway–likethedramaticincreasesin?nancing?costs?–?sometimes?just?enough?to?rememberthepain,inaconstructiveway.

Inasense,thismayhavebeenthedrivingforceoftheindustry’sachievements.Lastbutnotleast,togetherisalwaysbetter.Ifyoufeelinspired,wearelookingforwardtohearingyourthoughtsathello@.Onceagain,enjoythedive!PEXAPARK

TEAMAuthors:LUCA

PEDRETTIMARITINA

KANELLAKOPOULOUChief

Operations

Of?cer

(COO)

&

Co-founderSenior

Insights

Analyst

&

Content

ManagerLucahas17years’hands-onexperienceinenergyriskmanagementforrenewablesinopenmarkets–valuing,structuring,negotiatingandmanagingPPA

transactionsacrossEurope.HelikesStracciatellaicecreamandPanettone,alot.Maritinahas8years’experienceinresearchandanalysisofcleanenergytrends,havingprovidedmarketinsightson?Europe’s?renewables?landscape?to??nanciers,?project?sponsors,andadvisorsthroughB2Bpublications.ShebelievesPandoroisunderrated.InsightsContributors:Michael

Waldner,Co-founder&CEO|John

Dallimore,HeadofCorporatePPA

&H2AdvisoryJonas

Nihoj,HeadofPortfolioandTrading

Services|David

Willemsen,HeadofRiskAdvisoryMathieu

Ville,HeadofPPA

Transactions|Itamar

Orlandi,SeniorRiskManagerDominique

Hischier,HeadofAnalysis|Brian

Knowles,DirectorofStorage&FlexibilityRommero

Carillo,DirectorofBusinessDevelopment|Alex

McGregor,

SeniorAnalyst

PPA

MarketsDavid

Battista,PriceReporter|Coni

Meili,Polling&PPA

MarketDataSpecialist8EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024ACT

I9EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024CHAPTER

1:

APPROACHINGTHE

GOLDEN

PPA

ERATheEuropeanPPA

Marketneverceasestoimpress.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,thearrivaloftherainbowafterthestormhadbecomeevident.Butnotwithoutsomeclouds.What’sthe?nalverdict?PPA

Tracker

MethodologyBeforewestartthebigdive,let’s

doamemoryrefreshmentonhowtoreadPexapark’sPPAanalysis.?Not?all?PPAs?are?equal,?and?we?know??rst-hand.?Our?PPA?Tracker?includes?agreements?that?meet?speci?c?criteria.??Price

risk:Pexapark’sprimarycriterionliesinaPPA

carryingpricerisk.Route-to-market(RTM)orbalancingservicesPPAs

donotmakeittoourPPA

Tracker,

eveniftheyareconcludedforlongperiods(i.e.RtMPPAs

forprojectsundertheUKCfDschemethatmayneedcontractstomarkettheir?power,?while?it’s?the?UK?government?that?takes?the?price?risk?by?offering?a??oor?price).?Tenor:Ourruleofthumbistotracklong-termPPAs

ofatleasta5-yeartenor.Nonetheless,initial?PPAs?linked?to?new?projects?and?have?played?a?role?in?the??nancing?of?the?assets,?are?being?addednomatterthetenorlength.ItisworthnotingthatourdataillustratethatpubliclyavailableShort-term(ST)PPAs

fornewprojectsarestillrare(4intotalacross2023).Post-subsidyPPAssuchaspost-EEGinGermanyprolongingthelifeofanasset,orPPAs

linkedtoanyexistingassets(i.e.optimisationPPAs

forassetsinitiallycommissionedundersubsidyschemes)needtohaveatenorlongerthan5years.PPA

Size:?We?calculate?the?deal??ow?volumes?based?on?the?PPA?Size?in?MW?and?not?the?ProjectSize.At

thebeginningof2023,weupdatedourmethodologytoaccountfordealswithnoinformationonthePPA

SizeinMW,

whichwereleftblankbefore.Thanksto‘MissionLucia’(whichfurtherenlightenedthequalityofourdata),wheneverweknowa)volumesinGWhb)geographyc)technologyofthePPA,

weproceedtoacapacityfactor-basedestimationofthePPA

size.Luciawasretroactivelyappliedtoalltheexistingentries,whichiswhysomenumbersfrom?last?year?are?slightly?different,?but?more?re?ective?of?PPA?activity.?The?megatrends?of?yearly?volumeactivityanddealcountremainedunchanged.You?can??nd?our?PPA?Tracker?on?Pexapark’s?PPA?price?reference?platform?PexaQuote,?alongside?moreinformationonourmethodology.Forthesestringentrulesandtheextramilewegowhenreviewing?PPA?activity,?our??ndings?could?be?dissimilar?to?other?data-driven?insight?providers.?To

ensureyourdealsareincludedinouranalysis,you’reinvitedtousethe‘ReportaPPA

Deal’functionofPexaQuoteoremailmaritina.kanellakopoulou@.10EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

20241.1THE

BIG

PICTURE:

2018-2023YEAR-BY-YEAR

EVOLUTIONThepastyearhasbeenbusierfortheEuropeanPPA

marketthaneverbefore,withmultiplerecordsbeingbrokenoneaftertheother.Bepatient;we’re

onlygettingstarted!Over

the

past

twelvemonths,

our

PPA

Tracker

recorded

a

hefty

16.2GW

of

disclosed

contracted

volumes

–

anincrease

of

more

than

40%

vis-à-vis

2022.Accordingtotheupdateddata,theEuropeanPPAMarketvolumeshavebeengrowingata37%CAGR

since2018.PPA

deal

?ow

by

disclosed

contracted

capacity,

2018-

2023

(GW)CorporateUtilityUnknown/OtherCAGR16.20+37%13.3011.4511.957.986.597.992.833.349.313.395.065.194.023.062.521.960.87201820192020202120222023Source:

PexaQuote,

PPA

Tracker

Note:

‘Other’

mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopersLookingatthedealcount,theyear-on-yearincreaseappearsevenmoreradical.Intotal,2023saw

272

PPAs

–

an

increase

of

an

impressive

65%

from

2022!Eventhoughvolumesmakethebiggestheadlines,dealcountisequallyimportant.That’sbecausethevalueillustratesthetimessellersandbuyerssatatthetablewhethertheofftakeneedswere20GWhor1,500GWhperannum(yes,therewassuchamammothdeal,andtheofftakerwillnotcomeasasurprise).Thefactthatofftakerstransacted65%moretimesthantheyearbeforetrulyillustratestheappetitenotjustfromlargeofftakersthatcouldpotentially‘distort’thebigimagewithindividuallargeofftakes,butalsofromsmallandmediumcorporatesandindustrialsthatwanttobepart

oftherevolutioninenergyprocurement.11EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024PPA

deal

?ow

by

deal

count,

2018-2023

(#

deals)CorporateUtilityUnknown/OtherCAGR272+52%164157218100102931314860345348249513130201820192020202120222022Source:

PexaQuote,

PPA

Tracker

Note:

‘Other’

mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopersHedgingagainstvolatilityandsecuringlower-than-marketratesthroughagreenPPA

hasbecometheprimaryreasonformanycorporatescontractingPPAs,

alongsideESGtargets.Akeyelementthat?enabled?a?signi?cant?ramp-up?of?activity?was?relatively?smoothed-out

regulatory

concerns.As?will?be?analysed?in?more?detail?later?in?this?report,?the?pricing?landscape?of?2023?was?de?ned?by?astable

downward

trajectory

of

both

power

and

gasfuturesprices.Consequently,PPA

pricesacross?European?countries?mimicked?the?movement?at?different?levels,?increasing?buyers’?con?dence?intakinglong-termpricerisk.Overall,renewableplayersentered2023witharefreshedmindsetandarelativelyincreasedsenseof?stability,?signi?cantly?increasing?certainty?on?long-term?PPA?deal-making.12EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024A

sneak

peek

of

the

other

side

of

the

coinPricing

environment

required

adjustments

of

expectations

from

sellers–Despiteexceptionallyhighdeal-makingcatalysedbylessvolatility,somedealsdidnotgothroughbecausesomesellersmodelledrevenuesbasedonlastyear’spricinglevels.Disconnectionfromrealisticpricesandoverlyambitiousexpectationshavealwaysbeenreasonsfordealstofallthrough,andthis‘category’ofdealstemporarilyorpermanentlymovingtothevaulthasalwaysexisted.Inourview,

itcomesdowntotheabilitytodistinguishpricing

and

valuingaPPA.Windfall

taxes

did

not

have

a

major

impact

on

long-term

transactions–Over

2023,

thesea

of

complex

regulation

and

revenue

caps

through

windfall

taxes

appeared

to

bebetterdigestedbymarketparticipants.Despitethescarsfromlastyearandthewait-and-seeperiod,buyersandsellerswerebetterequippedtomanageregulatoryriskduringnegotiations.Ontheotherhand,Short-term(1-4y)PPAs

tookabiggerhit,aswillbeanalysedlaterinthisreport.High

?nancing

costs

tested

certain

deals–Regulatoryuncertaintywasreplacedbypersistingchangesinmarketfundamentalsfortheinvestmentcommunity.Thecostofdebt,primarilydueto?rising?base?rates,?remained?at?signi?cantly?elevated?levels?in?line?with?the?increases?witnessed?in?2022?(where?the?10-y?Euro?swap?started?at?0.28%?and?ended?at?3.19%).?2023?was?the??rst?full?year?with?a?challenging??nancing?environment,?and?certain?assets?did?not?manage?to?make?theeconomicswork,withsomePPA

negotiationsfortheseprojectshavingpausedforthetimebeing.13EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

20241.2

DATA-DRIVEN

HEADLINESPAINTING

THE

2023

PICTUREQ1

SET

THE

RHYTHM

FOR

A

RECORD

YEARContrarytothepatternsofpastyears,whereQ4usuallydepictsthemostrobustactivity,Q12023sawthehighestactivityintermsofvolumes,withatotalofanunprecedented5.5GW.We

believethetimingoftheclosingandannouncementofthesedealswasnotrandom.Over2022,despiteEuropeanenergymarketsundergoingthemostturbulentyearintheirrecenthistory,PPAs

exhibitedremarkableresiliency.Despitetheimpressivelystableactivitylastyear,ourgut?feeling?was?telling?us?that?corporate?ambition?was?much?larger?than?the?deal??ow?numbers?indicated.Turns

out,therealappetiterevealeditselfinQ12023,aswebelievemanyofthesedealswereleftoversfromnegotiationsthatweredelayedduetothevolatilityandunfavourable-for-the-buyerspricinglevels.Monthly

PPA

activity

in

2023,

disclosed

volumes

in

MWCorporateUtilityUnknown/Developer2,5492,2722,0711,6431,7681,1941,4058661,2311,2041,1321,8092639361,1599366998072128161,147843576187311,0261063187394693423883144318232Jan‘23Feb‘23Mar‘23Apr‘23May‘23Jun‘23Jul‘23Aug‘23Sep‘23Oct‘23Nov‘23Dec‘23Source:

PexaQuote,

PPA

Tracker

Note:

‘Other’

mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopers14EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024Evenso,

thehistoricalpatternhasn’twhollydeviatedfromthereality,becauseQ4wasindeedthestrongestintermsofdealcount,with81deals.Infact,October’23didnotonlyconstitutethemonth?with?the?most?PPA?announcements?over?the?year,?but?ever!?Such?data?con?rm?the?high?deal?activityinQ4overallthepastyears,asmanynegotiationsarerushingtowrapupdeal-makingaheadoftheyear-end.Monthly

PPA

activity

in

2023

by

deal

count

(#

deals)CorporateUtilityUnknown/Developer3429252424242423231172922151921196182119194710152917174132415213Jan‘23Feb‘23Mar‘23Apr‘23May‘23Jun‘23Jul‘23Aug‘23Sep‘23Oct‘23Nov‘23Dec‘23Source:

PexaQuote,

PPA

Tracker

Note:

‘Other’

mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopersForamonthlycommentaryonPPAactivity;PPA

pricingtrends;alongsidespotlightanalysisonkeytrendsandcommunityinsights,subscribetoourmonthlypublication,PPA

Times

here.15EUROPEAN

PPA

MARKET

OUTLOOK

2024THE

BALANCE

BETWEEN

CORPORATEAND

UTILITY

OFFTAKES

IMPROVEDCorporatesmaintainedtheleadpositionindrivingthePPA

market,buttherewasanuptickinutilityofftakes.Thenumbersrevealthatin2023,corporates

accounted

for

73%

of

volumes

and

80%of

deal

count.

Worthremindingthateventhoughthepercentageshareremainedthesame,thepiewasactuallymuchlarger.In

effect,

corporates

contracted

11.95GW

–

28%

increase

from2022,

across

218

deals

–

66%

uptick

year-on-year!Ontheotherhand,utilities’

stake

stood

at

23%

of

the

volumes

–

an

increase

from

last

year’s18%

share,

and

18%

of

deal

count.Thistranslatesto4.02GW

–

more

than

double

the

1.96GWof

2022,

across

48

deals

–

a

60%

increase

from

last

year’s

30

deals.In2022,thedirestraitsposedbyvolatilitylevelssometimesdisarmedeventhemostrisk-savvytradingagent,resultinginreducedutilityofftakeappetite.Butaswe’ve

repeatedlyobservedinourdigitalmagazinePPA

Times,ourmonthlyPPA

activitydigest,thestabilisingpricingenvironmentandvolatilitylevelsdroppingtomoremanageablelevelsmadeutilitiesagainreadytoonboardsomeriskintheirbooks.Thefactthatcorporateappetitewasmuchlargerthisyearalsomadeitfeasibleforutilities/traderstoperformmoreback-to-back

deals,offtakingriskfromprojectsandmanagingthatriskthroughlong-termvolumesalestocorporatesstraightafter.Corporate

PPA

share,

deal

count

and

PPA

size,

2018-2023Volumes100%DealCount90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%81%80%73%80%6