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文檔簡介
April2024
Mcsey
company
Aerospace&DefensePractice
Addressingcontinued
turbulence:Thecommercial-
aerospacesupplychain
Anew,comprehensivesupply-chain-managementapproachcanhelp
aerospacecompanieseliminatemanyofthedisruptionsthatarecontributingtoarecord-highaircraftorderbacklog.
byEmmaLoxton,HenryMarcil,MikeParkins,andAndrewTingley
2
+13%
Thecommercial-aerospacesectorhasexperiencedmodestbutsteadygrowthsincemid-2020,when
demandforairtravelbegantorecoverfromthe
precipitousdropcausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.ByDecember2023,demandwasbackto97percentofprepandemiclevels,andit’sexpectedtogrow
between5and10percentannuallythrough20261Newaircraftordersnowtotalabout15,7002The
open-orderbacklogwouldtake13yearstoaddress,assuming2023deliveryrates(Exhibit1).
Whilestrongdemandisencouraging,commercial-aerospaceOEMsandsuppliersaredealingwith
multiplechallengesinparallel.Theseincludequalitycontrolissues,newregulations,talentshortages,
andanincreasinglysplinteredgeopolitical
environment.Oneofthemorepressingissues—
andonefrequentlycitedbycommercialOEMsandsuppliers—relatestopersistentsupplychain
constraints.Ouranalysisshowsthataerospace
executiveswereabout18timesmorelikelytomentionsupply-chain-relatedterms,suchas“shortages,”
duringearningscallsin2022thantheywerein2014.
Theirviewsonsupplychainperformancealso
showedadramaticnegativeshiftstartingin2020(seesidebar,“Growingsupplychainconcerns
amongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives”).
Theconcernsofaerospaceleadersarewelljustified.
Since2020,OEMshavestruggledtoobtain
adequatequantitiesofmanycomponentsessentialtoaircraftmanufacturing,includingrawmaterials,
Exhibit1
Thecommercial-aerospaceopen-orderbackloghasgrowntoanall-timehighofabout15,700aircraft.
Commercial-aerospaceaircraftdeliveries,deliverybacklog,andyearstoclearbacklog,12000–23
Aircraftdeliveries,thousands
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
–22%
0
2010
2020
2000
Open-orderbacklog,thousands
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
200020102020
Time-to-clearbacklog,years
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2010
2020
2000
1Includesnarrow-bodyandwide-bodyaircraft.
Source:Cirium;InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA);McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice
McKinsey&Company
1
2
Measuredinrevenue-passenger-kilometers.“AirpassengermarketanalysisDecember2023,”InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA),January31,2024.
Narrow-andwide-bodycommercialaircraft.
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain2
Ouranalysisshowsthataerospace
executiveswereabout18timesmore
likelytomentionsupply-chain-relatedterms,suchas“shortages,”during
earningscallsin2022thantheywerein2014.
finishedcastingsandforgings,semiconductors,
andelectronicscomponents.Inconsequence,
productionlineshaveslowedorstopped,thefleetageisclimbing,andrepairandoverhaultimesare
sometimessignificantlyofftarget.Addingtothe
challenge,manysuppliersprovidecomponentsandmaterialsforbothoriginalequipmentandthe
aftermarket.Iftheyhaveonlyalimitedsupplyofpartsandcomponents,theymayhavetomakeproductiontrade-offsbetweensupplyingOEMsandservicingtheaftermarket.
Toooften,commercial-aerospaceOEMsand
suppliersfallshortineffortstodrivesupplychainresiliencybecausetheyfocusonsinglesolutions,suchasdigitalriskmanagement,inisolation.Whilewellintentioned,individualsolutionsdon’tfully
addressthechallengesandrootcauses.Toassist,wehavedevelopedapractical,multipronged
approachthatincreasesfocusonthreeareas:
—usingdataandanalyticstogetamore
complete,accurate,andpredictiveviewofsupplychainissues
—increasingcollaborationandcapabilitybuildingsothatallstaffarewellpreparedtoengage
incross-functionalproblem-solvingthatgetstotherootcause
—assessingrisksproactivelytoensurethatcompaniesarepreparedforunforeseenchallengesthatmayarise
Aswe’veseenfromourworkwithinthesector,thiscombinationofmovescanrapidlydecrease
shortagesbymorethan25percent.Itcanalsobuildlong-lastingorganizationalcapabilitiesacross
hundredsofemployeesandcreateanadvantageinsupply-constrainedmarkets.
Anenhancedviewofsupplychainhealththroughdataandanalytics
Althoughcommercial-aerospacecompanieshavelongexaminedsupplychaindata,theycanenhancetheireffortsbyundertakingthreeactivities:
increasingsubtiertransparency,creatingawarningsystem,andregularlyensuringtheaccuracyof
theirdata.
Increasingsubtiertransparencyaboutthemostcriticalsupplychainissues
Leadingcompaniesarenowidentifyingsuppliers
wellbelowthefirsttieroftheirvendornetworksandmorecloselyexaminingtheiroperationstoobtain
aclearerviewofsupplychainperformance.Weseethebestresultsforcompaniesthatfocusonthe
suppliersproducingthepartsandcomponentsthat
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain3
Growingsupplychainconcernsamongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives
Toidentifythemajorbusinessconcernsofcommercial-aerospaceexecutives,weanalyzedthetranscripts
ofover1,000earnings,investor,andanalystcallsheldbymorethan50OEMsandsuppliersbetween2014and
2023.Welookedatthenumberoftimesthatspecifickeywordswerementioned.In2022,therewasaboutan
18-foldincreaseinthementionofshortagesandothersupply-chain-relatedtermsoverthenumbermentionedin2014.Severalsupplycategories,suchasrawmaterials,castings,forgings,electronics,andsemiconductors,
werealsotopofmindamongexecutives(ExhibitA).
ExhibitA
AMcKinseyanalysisshowedthatexecutiveswereabout18timesmorelikelytomentionshortagesin2022,comparedwith2014.
Keywordgroupmentionsbyexecutivespercalltranscript,2014–23,1index(2014=1)
Shortages
Castingsandforgings
Rawmaterials
Labor
Electronicsandsemiconductors
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023
8.817.46.9
1.01.10.71.22.42.21.1
1.01.32.91.71.51.30.81.74.72.0
1.00.91.31.92.52.41.92.93.62.4
1.00.91.11.01.21.61.51.72.82.4
1.00.90.70.91.11.40.91.62.01.6
1Keywordsfellintodiferentgroups,asfollows:shortagesincludesshortage,shortages,partavailability,materialavailability;castingsandforgingsincludes
castings,forgings;rawmaterialsincludesrawmaterial,rawmaterials,titanium,aluminum,composites,steel,aluminum,nickel,fasteners;laborincludeslabor,workforce,talent,turnover,retention;electronicsandsemiconductorsincludeselectronics,electroniccomponents,semiconductors.
Source:Cirium;InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA);McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice
McKinsey&Company
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain4
13
34
49
78
8
22
16
Growingsupplychainconcernsamongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives(continued)
WealsoleveragedgenerativeAItoanalyzeexecutivesentimentaboutsupplychainissues—specifically,
todetermineifexecutiveswerespeakingabouttheminapositiveornegativetone.Whilemostleadershadapositiveviewoftheissuesbefore2020,theirsentimentturnedpredominantlynegativein2020,when
theCOVID-19pandemicdisruptedordelayedmanyshipments(ExhibitB).Whilenegativityhasdecreasedsincethattime,it’sstillsignificantlyhigherthantheprepandemiclevels.
ExhibitB
ExecutivesweremorelikelytoexpressnegativesentimentaboutsupplychainsasCOVID-19spread,andthistendencypersists.
Sentimentwhensupply-chain-relatedtopicsarediscussedonearnings,analyst,andinvestorcalls,1%
Largelypositivesentimentaroundsupplychainpre-COVID-19pandemic
Negativesentimentaroundsupply
chainpost-COVID-19pandemic
44
38
28
23
26
16
14
13
11
12
POSITIVE
SENTIMENT
63
2015
2014
2017
2016
2018
20192020202120222023
NEGATIVE
SENTIMENT
1ThiscontentwascreatedwiththeassistanceofgenerativeAIwithrespecttosentimentmodeling.Instancesofsupply-chain-relatedtalkmaynothavebeendetectedwith100%accuracy.Remainingsentimentis“neutral”andnotlistedongraph.
Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;McKinseyValueIntelligencePlatform
McKinsey&Company
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain5
aremostcriticalorthatmustbeorderedwellin
advanceofproductionbecausetheyhavelong
leadtimes.Thistargetedapproachcanfacilitate
discussionswithdirectvendorsandsometimes
enableopportunitiestoworkdirectlywiththesubtier.Whenoneaerospace-electronics-manufacturing
suppliertookacomprehensivelookatitssupply
chain,itidentifiedseveralsemiconductorcompaniesprovidingchipstocriticalsubassemblies.The
supplierthendirectlyengagedthesubtiervendor,ultimatelyincreasingproductionthroughputby
45percent.
Creatinganearly-warningsystem
Manycompaniescreatecontroltowers—dataroomsandteamsthatmonitorsupplychainperformance—thatreacttoproblemsastheyoccur.Butthese
controltowersoftenfailtoprovidesufficientforesighttodriveproactiveaction.Forbetterresults,com-
paniescanleverageAItoanalyzereadilyavailable
procurementinformation,suchasin-house
purchaseordersandchangerequestmetadata,toidentifypotentialdeliveryorqualityissues
inadvance.
Theseearly-warningsystemscandetectdeviationsfromhistoricaltrendsandtriggeralarmsandactioniftheirregularitiespersist(Exhibit2).Inonecase,
weworkedwithacommercial-aerospaceOEMtoidentifycommonmarkersoffuturesupplychain
disruption,suchasfrequencyinpurchaseorder
changes.Bymonitoringseveralrelevantmetrics,thecompanywasabletoreducecomponent
shortagesby25percent.
Frequentlyupdatingsupplychaindata
Manycompaniesstruggletomanagesupplychaindatabasesbecausetheinformationoftenchanges.Forinstance,leadtimesmayshiftwhencontractsarerenegotiated.Withoutafirmprocessfor
Exhibit2
Companiesmayavoidshortagesbyimplementingearly-warningsystemstodetectabnormalpatternsinprocurementdata.
Instancesofamasterschedulechangeorlateshipdate(illustrative)
Instances
ofissues
foragiven
metric
An“event”is
triggeredwhenrecentissues
spike(deviate)abovethe
historicalnorm
An“alarm”
istriggered
whenanissue
orevent
persistsover
consecutivedays
Systemenables
proactivemitigation
tohelpcorrect issuesbeforetheyturnintoshortages
Systemtrackshistorical
trendstosetabaseline
of“what’snormal”
Systemalarmswillturnoionceissuesaremitigatedorontracktoberesolved
Time
ALARM
RANGE
EVENT
RANGE
NORMAL
RANGE
Source:McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice
McKinsey&Company
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain6
Leadingcompaniesarenowidentifyingsupplierswellbelowthefirsttier
oftheirvendornetworksandmore
closelyexaminingtheiroperationstoobtainaclearerviewofsupply
chainperformance.
trackingsuchupdates,databasesoftencontain
inaccurateorincompleteinformation.Thiscanleadtoadministrativeheadachesandcostlyproblems,suchassuboptimalinventorylevelsanddamagedpartcounts.
Mitigatingsuchissuesrequiresmorefrequent
andcomprehensivedataupdates,andcompaniesmustensurethatsupplymanagerscandedicate
sufficienttimeandresourcestotheseefforts.OneaerospaceOEMundertookacomprehensive
datareviewandcorrectedmanydiscrepancies,suchasinconsistentpartnamesandserial
numbers.Withbetterinformation,thecompanyimprovedlogisticsefficiencies,includingthe
abilitytolocateinventoryandrerouteshipmentsduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.
Improvedcross-functional
collaborationandcapabilitybuildingforcriticalsupplychainactivities
Supplychaindisruptionshavebecomeafact
oflife,eventhoughmanyofthepandemic-relateddisruptionshavesomewhatabated.Thebest
companiesproactivelyhelptheiremployeesgain
theskillsneededtohandlesuchchallengessothattheywillbepreparedwhenproblemsarise.
Trainpersonnelonrootcauseanalysisandcorrectiveaction
Althoughdeliveryandqualityissuesareinevitableinacomplexindustrysuchasaerospace,
companiesmayoptforBand-Aidfixestomitigateproblems,resultinginsuboptimaloutcomes
andrecurrencesofissues.Tobreakthispattern,companiescanencouragesupplychainteams
tofocusonrootcauseanalysis(RCA)3—aprocesstoidentifyandresolvetheunderlyingissues
thatrepeatedlyresultinshortagesorqualityissues.
OncesupplymanagersareskilledinRCAand
canunderstandtherootofdysfunction,theycan
addressissuesatthesourceandavoidsimilar
situationsinthefuture.Onecommercial-aerospaceplayerthatemphasizedRCAcapabilitiesimproved
itsabilitytomanageunexpecteddemandshiftsand
gainedgreaterinsightintoitssupplychain.Theseadvancementshelpedreducepartshortages
byabout30percent.
3
Sometimescalled“rootcausecorrectiveaction,”“failuremodesandeffectsanalysis,”andmanyotherterms.
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain7
Facilitateclearandconnectedcross-
functionaloperations
Toaddresssupplychainconstraintseffectively,allrelevantoperationsfunctionsneedtoshare
informationfreelyandquickly.Forinstance,themanufacturinggroupmustknowaboutdelivery
andqualityissuestomanagethecriticalpath.Supplymanagersmustunderstandschedulechangesto
updatedeliveryschedules.
Toalignallfunctionsinvolved,companiescan
benefitfromcreatingphysicalspacesdedicatedtoenhancingsupplychainvisibilityanddriving
performance—sometimescalledobeya,or“bigroom”inJapanese.Whilesomeaerospacecompanies
alreadyhavesuchrooms,theyoftenfailtoincorporateallfunctionsproperly,createvisibilityacrosssimplemetricsorprovidethecontinuousdatafeeds
necessaryforfullefficacy.Onedefensecompany
increasedsteelassemblythroughputby50percent,despitepersistentrawmaterialshortages,by
establishingacross-functionalobeyathatincludedteammembersacrossmanufacturing,procurement,planning,andmaterialmanagement.
Organizeandupskilltalent
Aswithanyimprovementeffort,bettersupplychainmanagementrequiresacapablestaff.However,
skilledlaborisalreadyinshortsupply,andthe
problemisbecomingmoreseverebecause
many
employeeswithintheaerospacesector
have
recentlyretiredandtheemployeesreplacingthem
havelessinstitutionalknowledge.Thetalent
problemcanbeparticularlysevereduringmaterials
shortages,whensupplychainmanagersmaybethrustintoothertemporaryroles,suchasprojectmanagement.
Toaddressthetalentchallenge,companiesmustuseeverysolutioninthetoolkittoincrease
acquisitionanddecreaseattrition.Forinstance,theycanhaveaclearandappealingvalue
propositionforjobseekersandaggressive
upskillingeffortsforcurrentemployees.Shiftingtoamoredata-drivenandanalyticalsupply
managementmodelwillalsorequirerecruitmentfornontraditionaldigital-nativeroles,such
asdatascientistsandengineers.
Newparadigmstoassesssupplychainrisk
Leadingaerospacecompaniesalreadyhaverisk
managementandbusinesscontinuityprocedures.Butseveralenhancements,includingimproved
qualitycontrolanduseof“tabletop”exercises,areessentialinthecurrentoperatingenvironment.
Treatingqualityasdelivery
IntandemwithperformingRCA,companiesmay
benefitfromgivingmoreurgentattentiontoqualityissues.Forexample,manycompaniesdelaythe
testingofmaterialbatchesuntilinstallation.This
Toaddresssupplychainconstraintseffectively,allrelevantoperations
functionsneedtoshareinformation
freelyandquickly.
4
Forexample,defects,shortagerates,qualityinspectionthroughput,andinitiativecompletionrates.
Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain8
Findmorecontentlikethisonthe
McKinseyInsightsApp
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Scan?Download?Personalize
canresultinmajorproductiondelaysifqualityissuessurface.Othersallowthedispositionsofmaterialreviewboardstodragonwhileparts
remaininnettingstockrooms.
Bringingleanprinciplesandasenseofurgency
toqualitycontrolcanvastlyreducetheseshortagesinhidingandallowsupplychainteamstoreact
quicklytoanydisruptions.OneUS-basedaerospacemanufacturerdeterminedthatpartnonconformancewastherootcauseforover30percentofall
partshortagesacrossitsprograms.Byestablishing
betterqualitymeasures,thecompany
reducedtheseshortagesandenhancedits
manufacturingflow.
Engagingintabletopexercises
Anyholisticplantoimproves
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