麥肯錫-應(yīng)對持續(xù)動蕩：商業(yè)航空航天供應(yīng)鏈 Addressing continued turbulence The commercialaerospace supply chain 2024

April2024

Mcsey

company

Aerospace&DefensePractice

Addressingcontinued

turbulence:Thecommercial-

aerospacesupplychain

Anew,comprehensivesupply-chain-managementapproachcanhelp

aerospacecompanieseliminatemanyofthedisruptionsthatarecontributingtoarecord-highaircraftorderbacklog.

byEmmaLoxton,HenryMarcil,MikeParkins,andAndrewTingley

2

+13%

Thecommercial-aerospacesectorhasexperiencedmodestbutsteadygrowthsincemid-2020,when

demandforairtravelbegantorecoverfromthe

precipitousdropcausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.ByDecember2023,demandwasbackto97percentofprepandemiclevels,andit’sexpectedtogrow

between5and10percentannuallythrough20261Newaircraftordersnowtotalabout15,7002The

open-orderbacklogwouldtake13yearstoaddress,assuming2023deliveryrates(Exhibit1).

Whilestrongdemandisencouraging,commercial-aerospaceOEMsandsuppliersaredealingwith

multiplechallengesinparallel.Theseincludequalitycontrolissues,newregulations,talentshortages,

andanincreasinglysplinteredgeopolitical

environment.Oneofthemorepressingissues—

andonefrequentlycitedbycommercialOEMsandsuppliers—relatestopersistentsupplychain

constraints.Ouranalysisshowsthataerospace

executiveswereabout18timesmorelikelytomentionsupply-chain-relatedterms,suchas“shortages,”

duringearningscallsin2022thantheywerein2014.

Theirviewsonsupplychainperformancealso

showedadramaticnegativeshiftstartingin2020(seesidebar,“Growingsupplychainconcerns

amongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives”).

Theconcernsofaerospaceleadersarewelljustified.

Since2020,OEMshavestruggledtoobtain

adequatequantitiesofmanycomponentsessentialtoaircraftmanufacturing,includingrawmaterials,

Exhibit1

Thecommercial-aerospaceopen-orderbackloghasgrowntoanall-timehighofabout15,700aircraft.

Commercial-aerospaceaircraftdeliveries,deliverybacklog,andyearstoclearbacklog,12000–23

Aircraftdeliveries,thousands

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

–22%

0

2010

2020

2000

Open-orderbacklog,thousands

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

200020102020

Time-to-clearbacklog,years

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2010

2020

2000

1Includesnarrow-bodyandwide-bodyaircraft.

Source:Cirium;InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA);McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice

McKinsey&Company

1

2

Measuredinrevenue-passenger-kilometers.“AirpassengermarketanalysisDecember2023,”InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA),January31,2024.

Narrow-andwide-bodycommercialaircraft.

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain2

Ouranalysisshowsthataerospace

executiveswereabout18timesmore

likelytomentionsupply-chain-relatedterms,suchas“shortages,”during

earningscallsin2022thantheywerein2014.

finishedcastingsandforgings,semiconductors,

andelectronicscomponents.Inconsequence,

productionlineshaveslowedorstopped,thefleetageisclimbing,andrepairandoverhaultimesare

sometimessignificantlyofftarget.Addingtothe

challenge,manysuppliersprovidecomponentsandmaterialsforbothoriginalequipmentandthe

aftermarket.Iftheyhaveonlyalimitedsupplyofpartsandcomponents,theymayhavetomakeproductiontrade-offsbetweensupplyingOEMsandservicingtheaftermarket.

Toooften,commercial-aerospaceOEMsand

suppliersfallshortineffortstodrivesupplychainresiliencybecausetheyfocusonsinglesolutions,suchasdigitalriskmanagement,inisolation.Whilewellintentioned,individualsolutionsdon’tfully

addressthechallengesandrootcauses.Toassist,wehavedevelopedapractical,multipronged

approachthatincreasesfocusonthreeareas:

—usingdataandanalyticstogetamore

complete,accurate,andpredictiveviewofsupplychainissues

—increasingcollaborationandcapabilitybuildingsothatallstaffarewellpreparedtoengage

incross-functionalproblem-solvingthatgetstotherootcause

—assessingrisksproactivelytoensurethatcompaniesarepreparedforunforeseenchallengesthatmayarise

Aswe’veseenfromourworkwithinthesector,thiscombinationofmovescanrapidlydecrease

shortagesbymorethan25percent.Itcanalsobuildlong-lastingorganizationalcapabilitiesacross

hundredsofemployeesandcreateanadvantageinsupply-constrainedmarkets.

Anenhancedviewofsupplychainhealththroughdataandanalytics

Althoughcommercial-aerospacecompanieshavelongexaminedsupplychaindata,theycanenhancetheireffortsbyundertakingthreeactivities:

increasingsubtiertransparency,creatingawarningsystem,andregularlyensuringtheaccuracyof

theirdata.

Increasingsubtiertransparencyaboutthemostcriticalsupplychainissues

Leadingcompaniesarenowidentifyingsuppliers

wellbelowthefirsttieroftheirvendornetworksandmorecloselyexaminingtheiroperationstoobtain

aclearerviewofsupplychainperformance.Weseethebestresultsforcompaniesthatfocusonthe

suppliersproducingthepartsandcomponentsthat

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain3

Growingsupplychainconcernsamongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives

Toidentifythemajorbusinessconcernsofcommercial-aerospaceexecutives,weanalyzedthetranscripts

ofover1,000earnings,investor,andanalystcallsheldbymorethan50OEMsandsuppliersbetween2014and

2023.Welookedatthenumberoftimesthatspecifickeywordswerementioned.In2022,therewasaboutan

18-foldincreaseinthementionofshortagesandothersupply-chain-relatedtermsoverthenumbermentionedin2014.Severalsupplycategories,suchasrawmaterials,castings,forgings,electronics,andsemiconductors,

werealsotopofmindamongexecutives(ExhibitA).

ExhibitA

AMcKinseyanalysisshowedthatexecutiveswereabout18timesmorelikelytomentionshortagesin2022,comparedwith2014.

Keywordgroupmentionsbyexecutivespercalltranscript,2014–23,1index(2014=1)

Shortages

Castingsandforgings

Rawmaterials

Labor

Electronicsandsemiconductors

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

8.817.46.9

1.01.10.71.22.42.21.1

1.01.32.91.71.51.30.81.74.72.0

1.00.91.31.92.52.41.92.93.62.4

1.00.91.11.01.21.61.51.72.82.4

1.00.90.70.91.11.40.91.62.01.6

1Keywordsfellintodiferentgroups,asfollows:shortagesincludesshortage,shortages,partavailability,materialavailability;castingsandforgingsincludes

castings,forgings;rawmaterialsincludesrawmaterial,rawmaterials,titanium,aluminum,composites,steel,aluminum,nickel,fasteners;laborincludeslabor,workforce,talent,turnover,retention;electronicsandsemiconductorsincludeselectronics,electroniccomponents,semiconductors.

Source:Cirium;InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA);McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice

McKinsey&Company

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain4

13

34

49

78

8

22

16

Growingsupplychainconcernsamongcommercial-aerospaceexecutives(continued)

WealsoleveragedgenerativeAItoanalyzeexecutivesentimentaboutsupplychainissues—specifically,

todetermineifexecutiveswerespeakingabouttheminapositiveornegativetone.Whilemostleadershadapositiveviewoftheissuesbefore2020,theirsentimentturnedpredominantlynegativein2020,when

theCOVID-19pandemicdisruptedordelayedmanyshipments(ExhibitB).Whilenegativityhasdecreasedsincethattime,it’sstillsignificantlyhigherthantheprepandemiclevels.

ExhibitB

ExecutivesweremorelikelytoexpressnegativesentimentaboutsupplychainsasCOVID-19spread,andthistendencypersists.

Sentimentwhensupply-chain-relatedtopicsarediscussedonearnings,analyst,andinvestorcalls,1%

Largelypositivesentimentaroundsupplychainpre-COVID-19pandemic

Negativesentimentaroundsupply

chainpost-COVID-19pandemic

44

38

28

23

26

16

14

13

11

12

POSITIVE

SENTIMENT

63

2015

2014

2017

2016

2018

20192020202120222023

NEGATIVE

SENTIMENT

1ThiscontentwascreatedwiththeassistanceofgenerativeAIwithrespecttosentimentmodeling.Instancesofsupply-chain-relatedtalkmaynothavebeendetectedwith100%accuracy.Remainingsentimentis“neutral”andnotlistedongraph.

Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;McKinseyValueIntelligencePlatform

McKinsey&Company

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain5

aremostcriticalorthatmustbeorderedwellin

advanceofproductionbecausetheyhavelong

leadtimes.Thistargetedapproachcanfacilitate

discussionswithdirectvendorsandsometimes

enableopportunitiestoworkdirectlywiththesubtier.Whenoneaerospace-electronics-manufacturing

suppliertookacomprehensivelookatitssupply

chain,itidentifiedseveralsemiconductorcompaniesprovidingchipstocriticalsubassemblies.The

supplierthendirectlyengagedthesubtiervendor,ultimatelyincreasingproductionthroughputby

45percent.

Creatinganearly-warningsystem

Manycompaniescreatecontroltowers—dataroomsandteamsthatmonitorsupplychainperformance—thatreacttoproblemsastheyoccur.Butthese

controltowersoftenfailtoprovidesufficientforesighttodriveproactiveaction.Forbetterresults,com-

paniescanleverageAItoanalyzereadilyavailable

procurementinformation,suchasin-house

purchaseordersandchangerequestmetadata,toidentifypotentialdeliveryorqualityissues

inadvance.

Theseearly-warningsystemscandetectdeviationsfromhistoricaltrendsandtriggeralarmsandactioniftheirregularitiespersist(Exhibit2).Inonecase,

weworkedwithacommercial-aerospaceOEMtoidentifycommonmarkersoffuturesupplychain

disruption,suchasfrequencyinpurchaseorder

changes.Bymonitoringseveralrelevantmetrics,thecompanywasabletoreducecomponent

shortagesby25percent.

Frequentlyupdatingsupplychaindata

Manycompaniesstruggletomanagesupplychaindatabasesbecausetheinformationoftenchanges.Forinstance,leadtimesmayshiftwhencontractsarerenegotiated.Withoutafirmprocessfor

Exhibit2

Companiesmayavoidshortagesbyimplementingearly-warningsystemstodetectabnormalpatternsinprocurementdata.

Instancesofamasterschedulechangeorlateshipdate(illustrative)

Instances

ofissues

foragiven

metric

An“event”is

triggeredwhenrecentissues

spike(deviate)abovethe

historicalnorm

An“alarm”

istriggered

whenanissue

orevent

persistsover

consecutivedays

Systemenables

proactivemitigation

tohelpcorrect issuesbeforetheyturnintoshortages

Systemtrackshistorical

trendstosetabaseline

of“what’snormal”

Systemalarmswillturnoionceissuesaremitigatedorontracktoberesolved

Time

ALARM

RANGE

EVENT

RANGE

NORMAL

RANGE

Source:McKinseyAerospace&DefensePractice

McKinsey&Company

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain6

Leadingcompaniesarenowidentifyingsupplierswellbelowthefirsttier

oftheirvendornetworksandmore

closelyexaminingtheiroperationstoobtainaclearerviewofsupply

chainperformance.

trackingsuchupdates,databasesoftencontain

inaccurateorincompleteinformation.Thiscanleadtoadministrativeheadachesandcostlyproblems,suchassuboptimalinventorylevelsanddamagedpartcounts.

Mitigatingsuchissuesrequiresmorefrequent

andcomprehensivedataupdates,andcompaniesmustensurethatsupplymanagerscandedicate

sufficienttimeandresourcestotheseefforts.OneaerospaceOEMundertookacomprehensive

datareviewandcorrectedmanydiscrepancies,suchasinconsistentpartnamesandserial

numbers.Withbetterinformation,thecompanyimprovedlogisticsefficiencies,includingthe

abilitytolocateinventoryandrerouteshipmentsduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.

Improvedcross-functional

collaborationandcapabilitybuildingforcriticalsupplychainactivities

Supplychaindisruptionshavebecomeafact

oflife,eventhoughmanyofthepandemic-relateddisruptionshavesomewhatabated.Thebest

companiesproactivelyhelptheiremployeesgain

theskillsneededtohandlesuchchallengessothattheywillbepreparedwhenproblemsarise.

Trainpersonnelonrootcauseanalysisandcorrectiveaction

Althoughdeliveryandqualityissuesareinevitableinacomplexindustrysuchasaerospace,

companiesmayoptforBand-Aidfixestomitigateproblems,resultinginsuboptimaloutcomes

andrecurrencesofissues.Tobreakthispattern,companiescanencouragesupplychainteams

tofocusonrootcauseanalysis(RCA)3—aprocesstoidentifyandresolvetheunderlyingissues

thatrepeatedlyresultinshortagesorqualityissues.

OncesupplymanagersareskilledinRCAand

canunderstandtherootofdysfunction,theycan

addressissuesatthesourceandavoidsimilar

situationsinthefuture.Onecommercial-aerospaceplayerthatemphasizedRCAcapabilitiesimproved

itsabilitytomanageunexpecteddemandshiftsand

gainedgreaterinsightintoitssupplychain.Theseadvancementshelpedreducepartshortages

byabout30percent.

3

Sometimescalled“rootcausecorrectiveaction,”“failuremodesandeffectsanalysis,”andmanyotherterms.

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain7

Facilitateclearandconnectedcross-

functionaloperations

Toaddresssupplychainconstraintseffectively,allrelevantoperationsfunctionsneedtoshare

informationfreelyandquickly.Forinstance,themanufacturinggroupmustknowaboutdelivery

andqualityissuestomanagethecriticalpath.Supplymanagersmustunderstandschedulechangesto

updatedeliveryschedules.

Toalignallfunctionsinvolved,companiescan

benefitfromcreatingphysicalspacesdedicatedtoenhancingsupplychainvisibilityanddriving

performance—sometimescalledobeya,or“bigroom”inJapanese.Whilesomeaerospacecompanies

alreadyhavesuchrooms,theyoftenfailtoincorporateallfunctionsproperly,createvisibilityacrosssimplemetricsorprovidethecontinuousdatafeeds

necessaryforfullefficacy.Onedefensecompany

increasedsteelassemblythroughputby50percent,despitepersistentrawmaterialshortages,by

establishingacross-functionalobeyathatincludedteammembersacrossmanufacturing,procurement,planning,andmaterialmanagement.

Organizeandupskilltalent

Aswithanyimprovementeffort,bettersupplychainmanagementrequiresacapablestaff.However,

skilledlaborisalreadyinshortsupply,andthe

problemisbecomingmoreseverebecause

many

employeeswithintheaerospacesector

have

recentlyretiredandtheemployeesreplacingthem

havelessinstitutionalknowledge.Thetalent

problemcanbeparticularlysevereduringmaterials

shortages,whensupplychainmanagersmaybethrustintoothertemporaryroles,suchasprojectmanagement.

Toaddressthetalentchallenge,companiesmustuseeverysolutioninthetoolkittoincrease

acquisitionanddecreaseattrition.Forinstance,theycanhaveaclearandappealingvalue

propositionforjobseekersandaggressive

upskillingeffortsforcurrentemployees.Shiftingtoamoredata-drivenandanalyticalsupply

managementmodelwillalsorequirerecruitmentfornontraditionaldigital-nativeroles,such

asdatascientistsandengineers.

Newparadigmstoassesssupplychainrisk

Leadingaerospacecompaniesalreadyhaverisk

managementandbusinesscontinuityprocedures.Butseveralenhancements,includingimproved

qualitycontrolanduseof“tabletop”exercises,areessentialinthecurrentoperatingenvironment.

Treatingqualityasdelivery

IntandemwithperformingRCA,companiesmay

benefitfromgivingmoreurgentattentiontoqualityissues.Forexample,manycompaniesdelaythe

testingofmaterialbatchesuntilinstallation.This

Toaddresssupplychainconstraintseffectively,allrelevantoperations

functionsneedtoshareinformation

freelyandquickly.

4

Forexample,defects,shortagerates,qualityinspectionthroughput,andinitiativecompletionrates.

Addressingcontinuedturbulence:Thecommercial-aerospacesupplychain8

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canresultinmajorproductiondelaysifqualityissuessurface.Othersallowthedispositionsofmaterialreviewboardstodragonwhileparts

remaininnettingstockrooms.

Bringingleanprinciplesandasenseofurgency

toqualitycontrolcanvastlyreducetheseshortagesinhidingandallowsupplychainteamstoreact

quicklytoanydisruptions.OneUS-basedaerospacemanufacturerdeterminedthatpartnonconformancewastherootcauseforover30percentofall

partshortagesacrossitsprograms.Byestablishing

betterqualitymeasures,thecompany

reducedtheseshortagesandenhancedits

manufacturingflow.

Engagingintabletopexercises

Anyholisticplantoimproves