全球能源價格分析報告-培訓(xùn)課件外文版2024.4

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TRENDSGlobalenergypricesCHAPTER

01OverviewPrimaryenergyconsumptionworldwidefrom2019to2022,byfueltype(inexajoules)Globalprimaryenergyconsumption2019-2022,byfuelOilNaturalgasCoalNuclearenergyHydroelectricityRenewables700600500400300200100020192020202120223Description:Oilisthemostconsumedprimaryenergyfuelintheworld.In2022,some190.7exajoulesworthofoilwereconsumed.Thisrepresentedanincreaseofsomethreepercentincomparisontothepreviousyear.Naturalgasandnuclearenergyweretheprimaryenergysourcestonoteaconsumptiondeclinethatyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2019to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGMonthlyfuelenergypriceindexworldwidefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024Globalmonthlyfuelpriceindex2022-2024400350300250200150100Feb

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'244Description:Theglobalfuelenergypriceindexstoodat173.23indexpointsinFebruary2024,upfrom100inthebaseyear2016.Figuresspikedinthesummerof2022asaresultofanongoingenergysupplyshortagethatwasexacerbatedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar.Thefuelenergyindexincludespricesforcrudeoil,naturalgas,coal,andpropane.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):IMFDistributionofprimaryenergydemandworldwidefrom2020to2022withaforecastfor2045,byfueltypeGlobalprimaryenergydemandbreakdownbyfueltype2020-2045OilCoalGasNuclearHydroBiomassOtherrenewables120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2020202120222045*5Description:Oilaccountsforthegreatestshareofprimaryenergydemandworldwide.In2022,oil'sshareintotalprimaryenergydemandwas31.2percent.However,thisfigureisforecasttodecreaseinthecomingyearsandfalltoaround29.5percentby2045withgreateremphasisonrenewablesdeployment.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020and2021;*Forecastfigures.ReadmoreSource(s):OPECEnergycommoditypriceindexworldwidefrom2013to2022,withaforecastuntil2024Globalenergycommoditypriceindex2013-2024160140152.6120.1120113.2113.3111.795.410080877668.16555.16052.74020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*6Description:Theglobalenergypriceindexstoodataround152.6in2022.Thiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousyearandaresultofgreaterfuelandpowerdemandaseconomiesrecoveredfromthecoronaviruspandemic.For2023,forecastssuggestthepriceindexwoulddecreaseto113.Priceindicesshowthedevelopmentofpricesforgoodsorservicesovertimerelativetoabaseyear.Commoditypricesmaybedependentonavarietyoffactorsfromsupplyanddemandtooveralleconomic[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2013to2022;priceindexesinnominalU.S.dollars;*Forecast.Figureswerecompiledfromseveraleditionsofthereport.

ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankCHAPTER

02CoalCoalpriceindexworldwidefrom1992to2022Globalcoalpriceindex1992-2022600500400300200100019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120228Description:Theglobalcoalpriceindexamountedto484.50indexpointsin2022.Thiswasmorethandoublethepricerecordedayearprior,andthepeakintheperiodinconsideration.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1992to2022Source(s):IMFMonthlycoalpriceindexworldwidefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024Globalmonthlycoalpriceindex2022-20247006005004003002001009Description:Theglobalcoalpriceindexreached163.51indexpointsinFebruary2024.Thiswasadecreasecomparedtothepreviousmonthsandfollowsageneraltrendofdecline.Throughout2022coalpricessawasignificantnetincrease.ThiswaslargelyduetogreaterfuelandelectricitydemandascountriesslowlyexitedmorestringentcoronavirusrestrictionsaswellasfalloutfromtheRussia-Ukrainewar.AsmanyEuropeancountriesmovedtocurtailinggasimportsfromRussia,coalbecamethe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):IMFCommoditypriceofcoalfromAustraliafrom1980to2022(inU.S.dollarspermetricton)CommoditypriceofcoalinAustralia1980-2022400350300250200344.89138.05150121.452011107.02201898.9796.36201288.52201710050084.56201377.89201970.13201466.12201658.94201560.79202040.14198039.67199026.25200020102021202210Description:OneoftheleadingeconomicindustriesinAustralia,coalmininghascontributedsignificantlytothelocaleconomy.In2022,thepriceofAustraliancoalwasaround345U.S.dollarspermetricton.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;1980to2022;pricesinnominalU.S.dollarsSource(s):WorldBankChinaQinhuangdaocoalspotpricefrom2003to2021(inU.S.dollarspermetricton)ChinaQinhuangdaocoalprice2003-2021180160140120100806040200200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202111Description:TheChinaQinhuangdaocoalspotpricereachedanaverageof153.55U.S.dollarspermetrictonin2021.Thiswasthepeakintheperiodofconsiderationandaresultofgrowingenergydemandastheworldeconomyrecoveredfromthecoronaviruspandemic-inducedslump.AcoalshortageinthelatterhalfoftheyearledtomultiplepowerblackoutsacrossChinaandpushedcoalpricesfurtherupwards.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,China;2003to2021Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGWholesalePriceIndexofcoalacrossIndiafromfinancialyear2013to2023WholesalePriceIndexofcoalinIndiaFY2013-2023140133.313513012512011511010510095129126.6125.3123.3118.7109106.7106.5104.8102.1FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202312Description:Attheendoffiscalyear2023,theWholesalePriceIndexofcoalacrossIndiawasover133.Anoverallincreaseinthepriceindexofcoalwasseenovertheyearsfromfinancialyear2013inthecountry.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2013toFY2023;baseyearFY2012=100Source(s):OEA(India)NorthwestEuropecoalmarkerpricefrom2003to2022(inU.S.dollarspermetricton)NorthwestEuropecoalmarkerprice2003-20223503002502001501005002003

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202213Description:TheNorthwestEuropecoalmarkerpricestoodat293.6U.S.dollarspermetrictonin2022.Thiswasmorethandoubletheaverageweeklypricerecordedthepreviousyearandtheresultofincreasedenergydemand.Pricesvariedduringtheperiodunderconsideration.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2003to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;IHS;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

03CrudeoilCrudeoilpriceindexworldwidefrom1991to2023Globalcrudeoilpriceindex1991-202325020015010050015Description:Theworldwidecrudeoilpriceindexstoodat194.26indexpointsin2023.Thiswasadecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear,whenthepriceindexhadrisentoabove200indexpointsforthefirsttimesince2014.TheglobalcrudeoilindexisdeterminedbybenchmarkpricessuchasBrent,WTI,andDubaiFateh.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1991to2023Source(s):IMFMonthlycrudeoilpriceindexworldwidefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024Globalmonthlycrudeoilpriceindex2022-202428526524522520518516516Description:Themonthlycrudeoilpriceindexworldwidereached195.53indexpointsinFebruary2024.ThiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousmonthasagrowingMiddleEastconflictledtoconcernsbymarkettraders.Anenergysupplyshortage,whichbeganunfoldinginthelatterhalfof2021,aswellasthefalloutfromtheRussia-Ukrainewarresultedin?crudeoilpricesrisingto15-yearhighsinthefirsthalfof2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):IMFAverageannualOPECcrudeoilpricefrom1960to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)OPECoilpriceannually1960-202412010080604020017Description:Thepreliminary2024OPECoilpricestoodat80.6U.S.dollarsperbarrels,asofFebruary.Thiswouldbelowerthanthe2023average,whichamountedto82.95U.S.dollars.TheabbreviationOPECstandsforOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountriesandincludesAlgeria,Angola,Congo,EquatorialGuinea,Gabon,Iraq,Iran,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,Venezuela,andtheUnitedArabEmirates.TheaimoftheOPECistocoordinatetheoilpoliciesofitsmemberstates.Itwas[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2024Source(s):en2x;OPECAverageannualBrentcrudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)Brentcrudeoilpriceannually1976-202412010080604020018Description:TheaverageannualpriceofBrentcrudeoilstoodat81.8U.S.dollarsperbarrelin2024.ThisisaccordingtopreliminarydatafromFebruary.Thisisnearly20U.S.dollarslowerthanthe2022annualaverage,whenanenergysupplyshortageandconcernsoverfalloutfromtheRussia-Ukrainewarsawpricessurge.Brentistheworld'sleadingpricebenchmarkforAtlanticbasincrudeoils.Crudeoilisoneofthemostcloselyobservedcommoditypricesasitinfluencescostsacrossallstagesof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xAverageannualWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WestTexasIntermediateannualaverageoilprice1976-202412010080604020019Description:AsofFebruary2024,theaverageannualpriceofWestTexasIntermediatecrudeoilreached74.15U.S.dollarsperbarrel.Thiswasanotabledecreasecomparedtothe2022average,whichstoodat94.9U.Sdollarswhenoilpricesrosefollowinganenergysupplyshortageinthefall/winterof2021/22.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary2024.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xClosingpriceofBrent,OPECbasket,andWTIcrudeoilatthebeginningofeachweekfromMarch28,2022toMarch25,2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WeeklyoilpricesinBrent,OPECbasket,andWTIfutures2022-2024BrentOPECbasketWTI1301201101009080706020Description:OnMarch25,2024,theBrentcrudeoilpricestoodat86.11U.S.dollarsperbarrel,comparedto81.95U.S.dollarsforWTIoiland85.43U.S.dollarsfortheOPECbasket.Europe'sBrentcrudeoil,theU.S.WTIcrudeoil,andOPEC'sbasketarethreeofthemostimportantbenchmarksusedbytradersasreferenceforoilandgasolineprices.InMarch2022,oilpricessoaredtohighsnotseensince2008asaresultoftheRussia-Ukrainewar.TheincreasenotedinMarch2024comesamidexport[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;March28,2022toMarch25,2024Source(s):BNNBloomberg;B?rseFrankfurt;OPECCHAPTER

04NaturalgasNaturalgaspriceindexworldwidefrom1992to2023Globalnaturalgaspriceindex1992-2023600500400300200100022Description:In2023,theglobalnaturalgaspriceindexstoodat193.86indexpoints.Thiswasdownfromapeakof521.58in2022.Naturalgaspricesincreasedsignificantlyinthelatterhalfof2021throughoutmuchof2022owingtogreaterpowerdemandcombinedwithsupplyconstraints.Thistrendwasalsoreflectedinthemonthlynaturalgaspriceindex.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1992to2023Source(s):IMFMonthlynaturalgaspriceindexworldwidefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024Globalmonthlynaturalgaspriceindex2022-20241,0009008007006005004003002001000Feb

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'2423Description:Theglobalnaturalgaspriceindexstoodat124.96indexpointsinFebruary2024.Thiswasanotabledecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear,asmildertemperatureskeptgasdemandlowerthanexpected.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):IMFNaturalgascommoditypricesinselectedmarketsin2020to2022,withaforecastuntil2024(innominalU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)Globalnaturalgascommoditypricesbyregion2020-2024EuropeU.S.Japan**4540353025201510502020202120222023*2024*24Description:NaturalgaspricesincreasedacrossEurope,theUnitedStates,andJapanin2021dueinlargeparttoanenergysupplyshortagebroughtaboutbyanincreaseinelectricitydemand.Apartfromeconomicdeterminants,unexpectedlycoldwintersorwarmsummersmayalsodrivepricespikes.In2022,naturalgaspricesincreasedfurther,largelyasaresultoftightersuppliesfollowingtheRussia-Ukrainewar.Duringthesameyear,Europesawanannualaveragepriceof40.3nominalU.S.[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020to2022;*Forecast.**DataforJapanreferstoliquefiednaturalgascosts.ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankNaturalgaspricesfortheindustrialsectorworldwideasof2020,byselectcountry(inU.S.dollarspermegawatthour)Globalindustrypricesfornaturalgasbyselectcountry2020PricesinU.S.dollarspermegawatthour*010203040506070SwitzerlandIreland64.9443.38SouthKoreaSweden39.8438.0837.78FranceSlovakia30.26AustriaCzechiaDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsSpain29.2929.1929.0926.425.9225.8725.46UnitedKingdom25Description:Switzerlandhasoneofthehighestnaturalgaspricesfortheindustryintheworld.In2020,industrialcustomerspaidapproximately64.9U.S.dollarspermegawatthourworthofnaturalgas.ThiswasconsiderablyhigherthanthepriceofgasinnaturalgasproducingcountriessuchastheUnitedStatesandCanada.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020;*Basedongrosscalorificvalue.ReadmoreSource(s):IEAAverageU.S.HenryHubnaturalgaspricefrom2003to2022(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit)AverageU.S.HenryHubnaturalgasprice2003-202210.09.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.02003

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202226Description:AveragenaturalgasintheU.S.HenryHubstoodat6.45U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunitin2022,anincreaseofnearly70percentwhencomparedtothepreviousyear.Overall,Henryhubnaturalgaspricesincreasedby0.82U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit,peakingin2008at8.85U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2003to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGWeeklyU.S.HenryHubnaturalgaspricesfromMarch4,2022toMarch1,2024(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)U.S.HenryHubpricesperweek2022-202410.59.58.57.56.55.54.53.52.51.50.527Description:OnMarch1,2024,theHenryHubnaturalgaspriceamountedto1.58U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits.Thiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousweek.Generally,naturalgaspriceshavebeendecliningcomparedtotheprevioustwoyears.In2022pricessawanetincreaseduetoanenergycrunchthathadbeenworsenedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar.TheEuropeangasbenchmarkDutchTTFalsosoaredtorecordlevelsasaresult.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;March4,2022toMarch1,2024Source(s):EIA;NYMEXDutchTTFgasfuturesatthebeginningofeachweekfromMarch28,2022toMarch25,2024(ineurospermegawatthour)WeeklyDutchTTFgasprices2022-202430025020015010050028Description:DutchTTFgasfuturesamountedto28.49eurospermegawatthouronMarch25,2024forcontractswithdeliveryinApril2024.DutchTTFisseenasaEurope-widenaturalgaspricebenchmark.Gaspriceshavebeenlowerthanexpectedthroughoutthewinterof2023/24aswarmeraveragetemperaturesacrossthecontinenttranslatedintoreducedheatingdemandandallowedsupplierstokeepstockpileshigh.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;March28,2022toMarch25,2024;Pricesatthebeginningofeachweek.Source(s):IntercontinentalExchangeSpotpricesofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)deliveredworldwideasofJanuary2024,byselectdestinationcountry(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)GlobalLNGspotpricesinselectdestinationmarkets2024PricesinU.S.dollarspermillionBtu024681012JapanChina10.0510.05India9.6ArgentinaBrazil8.958.9Spain8.85UnitedKingdom8.6729Description:JapanandChinahavesomeofthehighestspotpricesforliquefiednaturalgas.InJanuary2024,customersinJapanandChinapaidapproximately10.05U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunitofLNGdelivered.DestinationmarketsinEuropeandSouthAmericaexperiencedslightlylowershippingcosts.Inthelastfewyears,theglobaltradevolumeofLNGhasincreasednotably,exceeding500billioncubicmetersshipped.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2024Source(s):GECFAveragepriceforliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)inJapanfromJanuary2020toNovember2023(innominalU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit)MonthlypricesforLNGinJapan2019-2023252015105030Description:InNovember2023,theaveragepriceofLNGimportedtoJapanamountedto12.57U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits.Pricesclimbedtoover20U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunitin2022asaresultofsupplyconstraints.Asmanycountriesexitedthemorestringenttravelconstraintsputinplaceduringtheheightofthecoronaviruspandemic,globalnaturalgasdemandralliedleadingtoasurgeinenergypricesinthelastmonthsof2021.Thissupplybottleneckworsened[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2019to2023Source(s):WorldBankCHAPTER

05UraniumAverageannualuraniumpriceworldwidefrom2000to2023(inU.S.dollarsperpound)Globaluraniumpriceperpound2000-20231201008099.2464.1856.246048.948.9947.6846.6745.9640.7738.5736.824033.4932.8629.4327.9326.4925.9124.5422.0918.0520011.249.838.28

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202332Description:Theaverageannualpriceforonepoundofuraniumwas48.99U.S.dollarsin2023.Thisisthehighestannualaveragesince2011,andcomesinthewakeofgreaterfueldemandastheglobaleconomybeganrecoveringfromthecoronaviruspandemicaswellastheenergycrisis.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2023Source(s):IMF;St.LouisFedMonthlypriceofuraniumworldwidefromJanuary2020toFebruary2024(inU.S.dollarsperpound)Monthlyuraniumpriceglobally2020-2024857565554535251533Description:InFebruary2024,theglobalaveragepriceperpoundofuraniumstoodatroughly81.32U.S.dollars.UraniumpricespeakedinJune2007,whenitreached136.22U.S.dollarsperpound.Theaverageannualpriceofuraniumin2023was48.99U.S.dollarsperpound.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;January2020toFebruary2024;*Notseasonallyadjusted.Valuesrepresentthebenchmarkpriceswhicharerepresentativeoftheglobalmarket.Theyaredeterminedbythelargestexporterofagivencommodity.Pricesare[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):IMF;St.LouisFedCHAPTER

06Electricity&hydrogenAveragerenewableelectricitygenerationcostworldwidein2022,byenergysource(inU.S.centsperkilowatt-hour)Globalrenewableelectricitygenerationprice2022,bysourceElectricitygenerationcostinU.S.centsperkilowatt-hour02468101214ConcentratingsolarpowerOffshorewindBioenergy11.88.16.16.1HydropowerGeothermal5.6SolarphotovoltaicsOnshorewind43.335Description:Amongstthedifferentsourcesofrenewableelectricitygeneration,concentratingsolarpowerandoffshorewindwerethemostexpensivein2022,withanaveragecostof11.8and8.1centsperkilowatt-hour,respectively.Incontrast,onshorewindelectricitygenerationcostanaverageof3.3centsperkilowatt-hourthatyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;in2022U.S.dollarsSource(s):IRENAHouseholdelectricitypricesworldwideinJune2023,byselectcountry(inU.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour)Globalhouseholdelectricityprices2023,byselectcountryElectricitypricesinU.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour0.2

0.30.00.10.40.50.6IrelandUnitedKingdomItaly0.520.440.430.42BelgiumGermanyNetherlandsFrance0.40.340.26DenmarkAustraliaSpain0.240.240.23JapanRwanda0.230.23Finland0.236Description:Ireland,theUnitedKingdom,andItalyhadsomeofthehighesthouseholdelectricitypricesworldwide,asofJune2023.Atthetime,Irishhouseholdswerechargedaround0.52U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour,whileintheUKthepricestoodat0.44U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour.Bycomparison,intheUnitedStates,residentspaidalmostthreetimesless.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;June2023;*TheelectricitypriceinIranstoodat0.003U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour.Source(s):GPPMeanunsubsidizedlevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)world