UBS Economics-APAC Economic Perspectives -Philippines Slower consumption,still steady growth-此為英文文檔

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GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab9May2024

APACEconomicPerspectives

Philippines:Slowerconsumption,stillsteadygrowth

GrowthremainsstableinQ1,withexportsoffsettingweakerdomesticdemand

Philippines'GDPgrowthcameinat5.7%y/y,inlinewithUBSforecastsbutslightlymissingconsensusexpectations(UBSe:5.7%andCons:5.9%).Onasequentialbasis,growthslowedto1.3%q/qsavs.1.8%inQ4.Householdconsumptiongrowthslowed,evenasgovernmentspendingremainedmeasuredandprivateinvestmentcontinuedtobetepid.Onthebrightside,netexportssurprisedpositively.Weretainour2024EGDPgrowthforecastat5.7%.

Consumptionpayback,investmenttepid,netexportssupportedgrowth

Realhouseholdconsumptiongrowthslowedto4.6%y/yinQ1from5.3%inQ4,withsequentialgrowthslowingto0.4%q/qsa.Thisnormalizationwastobeexpected,afterconsumptionsurged3.2%q/qsaonaverageinH223.Theslowdownwasbroadbasedacrossgoodsandservices.Lingeringinflationmighthavealsobeenaheadwind,althoughwenotethatminimumwagesinthePhilippineshaveslightlyoutpacedinflationoverthepasttwoyearsandthelabourmarketremainshealthy.Grossfixedcapitalinvestmentslowedto2.3%y/y(from10.2%inQ4),largelyonaccountofbaseeffects.Intrendlevels,privateconstructioncontinuestolagwhereasdurableequipmentinvestmentfellfurther.Thismightbereflectingthedragfromelevatedinterestrates.Goodsexportgrowthturnedpositiveforthefirsttimeinayear(+5.8%y/y),andservicesexportsgrewatarobustpaceof9.2%y/y.Givenmodestimportgrowth(+2.3%y/y),netexportscontributed+1.2ppttoy/yGDPgrowth(vs.a-1.4pptdraginQ4).

Weakagricultureproductionsuggestsriceinflationmaylinger

Foodinflationremainselevatedonaccountofstillrisingriceprices,whichareup24%y/y(+0.3%m/m).AwelcomemisstoinflationinApril(3.8%y/yvscons:4.1%y/y)wasledbyfallsinothervegetableprices(incl.onions,beans,tomatoes)andlowerelectricitytariffs.Q1datashowedthatagricultureproductionofpalay(unhuskedrice)wasdown2%y/y(vs+0.2%y/yinQ4),andaveragefarmgatepricesarestillup40%y/y.Asaresult,webelievethatheadlineinflationrisksarelikelytolingerinthePhilippines,eventhoughwelowerourfullyearinflationforecastto3.7%(prev:3.8%)onthebackofweakerthanexpectedinflationinApril.Ourinflationforecastsassumeannualminimumwageadjustmentsareinlinewiththepasttwoyears.

Governmentspendingmaintainedwithinfiscalboundaries

Whilststillmodestonay/ybasis,governmentconsumptionrose2.6%q/q(1.7%y/yvs.Q4-1.1%y/y),asfiscaloutlaysbouncedbackafteraQ4decline.Publicconstructioninvestmentfell2.0%q/qbutremainselevatedonay/ybasis(+12.4%y/y),andinfrastructurecapitaloutlayswereup6.6%y/yinJan-Febytd,slowingfrom18.7%y/yin2023.Thegovernmentrecentlyadjusteditsfiscaldeficitprojectionsfor2024(from5.1%to5.6%in'24),projectingaslowernarrowingofthefiscaldeficitto3.7%by2028(prev:3.1%).Thiswaslargelyduetoreducedgrowthforecastsandnotenlargedspendingestimates.Fiscalconsolidationhasbeengradual,withspendingconsistentlybelowrevenuegrowthoverthepastfewyears.Weexpectthegovernmenttostaythecourseonacrediblefiscalconsolidationpath.

Ouroutlookforrestoftheyear

Despitetheslowdowninconsumption,stronglabourmarketfundamentals,withtheunemploymentrateat3.9%inMarch(nearall-timelows)bodeswellforlabourincome.Remittanceshavebeenremarkablystableataround3%y/y,andservicesexports(largelybusinessprocessoutsourcing,andsupportiveofemployment)havebeengrowing

Economics

Philippines

GraceLim

Economist

grace-k.lim@+65-64955965

ClaireLong

Economist

claire.long@+852-37122066

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAG,SingaporeBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage7.

12

10

8

5

4

3

6

4

2

1

2

0

0

-2

-4

Q4-23Q1-24

15.0

11.9

10.0

8.4

7.37.5

7.3

6.0

4.8

4.6

3.8

5.0

1.3

0.6

0.5

0.0

-5.0-2.7

Figure4:Nationalaccountsdeflators

Figure5:NominalGDPbycomponent

NationalAccountDeflators

NominalGDPbyComponent

%y/y7

6

%y/y

14

8.8

8.2

4.84.4

2.0

8.7

-1

-6

-2

Exports

Imports

CPI

PCE

GovCons

GFCF

GDPPCEGovConsGFCFExportsImports

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-24

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jun-23

Mar-24

Sep-23

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Figure7:ContributiontoCPIinflation

Figure6:Ricepricesmayremainelevated

Contributiontoy/y%inflation

%y/y

10

Bev&Tobacco

ActualRentalsForHousingCoreSvcs

Coregoods

CPIInflation-Rice(Y/Y%)AverageFarmgatePricesinAgriculture:Palay(Y/Yytd)

50

40

8

Food&beverageserving

Utilities

Fuel&LubricantsforPersTransEquip

Vegetables

Foodexveg

CPIInflation

30

6

20

4

10

2

0

-10

0

-20

-2

Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24

-30

Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Figure9:Realhouseholdspendingbycomponent

Figure8:Householdspending(realgoodsvsrealsvcs)

%y/y

Index(2019Q4=100)

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

20.0

Goods

Services

75

70

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Source:Weproxygoodsspendingusingthesumoffood&beverages,alcoholic

beverages&tobacco,clothing&footwear,householdequipment.Ourproxyof

servicesconsumptionincludeshousing,hotels&restaurants,health,recreation&

culture,andeducation.

APACEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab3

APACEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab4

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Figure10:UnemploymentRate

10

%,saUnemploymentrate(SA)Unemploymentrate(NSA)

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source:Haver

Figure12:MerchandiseImports

US$bn,sa

Rawmaterials&intermediategoods

CapitalGoods

MineralFuels

ConsumerGoods

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:UBS,Haver

Figure14:Philippinesexportsofmerchandisegoods

US$bn,nsa

8

MerchandiseExportsAgro-BasedProductsElectronicProducts

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:Haver,UBS

Figure11:Minimumwageshaverisenby6-7%p.a.overthepasttwoyears,outpacinginflation

P/day610

600

550

500

450

400

Jan-09

Aug-09

Mar-10

Oct-10

May-11

Dec-11

Jul-12

Feb-13

Sep-13

Apr-14

Nov-14

Jun-15

Jan-16

Aug-16

Mar-17

Oct-17

May-18

Dec-18

Jul-19

Feb-20

Sep-20

Apr-21

Nov-21

Jun-22

Jan-23

Aug-23

Mar-24

350

Source:CEIC

Figure13:Importsofconsumergoods(breakdown)

US$bn,sa

DurableImportsNon-durableImports

201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:UBS,Haver

Figure15:BPOServicesExportsrising

US$bn,saPhilippines:GDP:ExportsofServices:BusinessServices

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Philippines:GDP:ExportsofServices:Tele,Comp&Info

%ofGDP

Linear(%ofGDP)

20172018201920202021202220232024

9.5%

9.0%

8.5%

8.0%

7.5%

7.0%

6.5%

6.0%

5.5%

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

APACEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab5

-2

-4

-6

-8

Figure16:Fiscalbudgetprojections(2024-2028)

%2

0

GDP

Fiscalbalance(%ofGDP)

Fiscalbalance

600

200

-2

-0.9

-4

-6

-2.3-2.1

-3.1

-3.4

-6.2

-4.7

-5.6

-5.2

-4.1-3.7

-200

-600

-8

-7.6

-7.3

-1000

-10

-8.6

-12

Govt.BudgetFcst.

-1400

-14

15

161718

1920

2122

2324F25F26F

27F28F

-1800

Source:DBM

Figure18:Centralgovernmentbudgetbalance

sa,%ofNominal

GD2P

CentralGovBudgetyear-to-date-%ofytdGDP

0

-5.6

-6.2

-7.3

-8.6

-10

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:Haver

Figure20:Constructionloansareslowlypickingup

%y/yLoansoutstandingforproductionbyeconomicactivity

50

40

30

20

10

0

-102018201920202021202220232024

Totaloutstandingloansforproductionofwhich:construction

Source:Haver

Figure17:Fiscalrevenuesandexpenditure

Expenditure

Revenue

%y/yytd

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

201801201901202001202101202201202301202401

Source:Haver

Figure19:GFCFbreakdownbytype

sa,2018=100

Q1-10

Q3-10

Q1-11

Q3-11

Q1-12

Q3-12

Q1-13

Q3-13

Q1-14

Q3-14

Q1-15

Q3-15

Q1-16

Q3-16

Q1-17

Q3-17

Q1-18

Q3-18

Q1-19

Q3-19

Q1-20

Q3-20

Q1-21

Q3-21

Q1-22

Q3-22

Q1-23

Q3-23

Q1-24

180

EquipmentGFCFPteConstructionPublicConstruction

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Source:Haver

Figure21:BSPSeniorLoanOfficersSurvey

share(%)

Netshare(%)

-40

Net8070605040302010 0-10

-20

TighteningStdsforEntLoansPast3Mos(LHS)

-30

ChangeinDemandforEntLnorPast3Mo(RHS)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20092011201320152017201920212023

Source:Haver,BSP

APACEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab6

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Risksofmulti-assetinvestingincludebutarenotlimitedtomarket,credit,interestrateand

foreignexchangerisks.Correlationsofreturnsamongdifferentassetclassesmaydeviate

fromhistoricalpatterns.Geopoliticaleventsandpolicyshocksposerisksthatcanreduceasset

returns.Valuationsmaybeadverselyaffectedduringtimesofhighmarketvolatility,thin

liquidityandeconomicdislocation.

APACEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab7

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