BDA-更美醫(yī)美APP商業(yè)盡職調(diào)查報(bào)告-20150512

Client–ProjectName Date:SAVEDATE\@"yyyy-MM-dd"2015-05-12PagePAGE9ofNUMPAGES11BDAReport–DueDiligenceonGengMeiMarketsize:Basedoninterviewsandresearch,BDAestimatesthattheaddressablemarketofChineseplasticsurgeryisRMB50BNin2014,andisexpectedtoexpandtoRMB240BNbytheyearof2020,withaCAGRof~30%.Methodology1:PlasticSurgeryPenetrationAccordingtoasurveyfromISAPS(InternationalSocietyofAestheticPlasticSurgery)in2011,theplasticsurgerypenetrationrateinChinais1.27surgeriesper1,000populations.BDAassumesthatthepenetrationrateofChinawillkeepincreasingandwillreachtothelevelofSouthKorea(14surgeriesper1,000population)in2020.ARPU:Theaveragepriceofaplasticsurgeryis5,000-6,000RMB.BDAassumesanaverageof15%annualgrowthrategiventhatplasticsurgerystillhasaprofoundpotentialforpriceimprovement.Methodology2:Userbase:In2014,thereareover5millionChinesepeoplewhohavetakenplasticsurgerybefore,thisgroupofpeopleaccountsfor~0.3%ofthetotalChinesepopulation.Moreover,thenumberhasbeenandisexpectedtobekeepingarobustgrowthinthefuture.Plasticsurgeryconsumeroftenkeepsbuyingplasticsurgeryproductsrepeatedly,anormalcustomerusuallyaccept2plasticsurgeriesayear,withanaveragespendingof5,000-6,000RMBpersurgery.Companybasics:GengMei(更美,previouslynamed完美診所)isanappfocusingonbuildingamobilecommunityforplasticsurgeryusers.Userscansharetheirsurgeryexperienceaswellascommentsoncertaindoctorandhospitalinthecommunity.GengMeialsoprovidesuserswithplasticsurgeryproductsflashsalesdirectlyprovidedbyhospitalsanddoctorsontheplatform.NumberofUsers:ByMarch2015,GengMeihas~703,000MAU,andthenumberofitsMAUisgrowingsteadily.Asforthepercentageoftotalusers,GengMei’sMAUremainsstableat40-50%forthepast7months.Numberofdoctorsandhospitalsengaged:InMarch2015,GengMeihasengaged3,573doctorsand1,109hospitalsonitplatform.Boththenumberofdoctorsandhospitalsareincreasingsteadily.GMV:SinceOctober2014whenGengMeistartedtoaddflashsalesproductsontheplatform,itsGMVgrows138%monthly,reaching30MNRMBinApril2015.(TheGMVdroponFebruaryiscausedbytheChineseNewYearholiday.)GengMei’sGMViscalculatedbasedonitsmonthlyordervolume.However,theordervolumeisonlyapre-paiddepositanddoesn’tmeantheactualnumberoffinishedplasticsurgery.Numberoforders:Theordervolumehasbeengrowingata121%-per-monthspeedforthepast7months.Consumedorders:ForalltheordersonGengMei,themonthlyconsumedrateremainsbetween30-50%.Meanwhile,thecancelationratealsowentupto30-50%,whichresultedfromincompleteoperationprocess,accordingtomanagement.Inmanycases,doctorsneglectedtoconfirmacompletionofadealandconsumersmaycanceltheordersafterwards.(Ordersthatarefinishedorcanceledinacertainmonthcouldbegeneratedinthepreviousmonths,sotheconsumedrateandcancelationratearejustindicationoforderqualityingeneral.)OrderCompletionRateonGengMeiOct.2014Nov.2014Dec.2014Jan.2015Feb.2015Mar.2015Apr.2015TotalOrders433448911,6701,6583,1255,000FinishedOrders221092194995691,3081,738CanceledOrders111463796797121,2681,127CompletionRate51%32%25%30%34%42%35%CancelationRate26%42%43%41%43%41%23%AverageOrderValue:Basedonthefindingsofinterviewsandresearch,webelievethatGengMei’saverageordervalueisRMB3,000-4,000.TheaveragevalueoftotalordersonGengMeiwascalculatedbasedontheGMVprovidedbythemanagement,reachesRMB6,000-7,000.However,usingthefinishedordersasexamples,theaverageordervaluedropstoRMB3,000-4,000,whichisinlinewithourinterviewfindings.RetentionRateofGengMeiisnotthatsatisfyingpartiallycausedbythenatureofthebusiness.UserRetentionRateonGengMei1stMonth2ndMonths3rdMonths4thMonthsiOS47.9%36.9%30.5%29.7%Android38.0%24.2%17.1%13.6%Competition:For3rdpartyplasticsurgeryApp,XinYangandGengMeiare2majorplayersinthemarket.Hospitalanddoctors:GengMeiandXinYanghavebothapproachedmostoftheplastichospitalsandsurgeonsinChina,thusthetargetstheyacquiredhavegreatoverlaps.AccordingtotheITdatawehavescrapedfromGengMeiandXinYangApp,BDAestimatesthatthereareover80%overlaprateforhospitalsanddoctorsinbothplatforms.However,theactivedoctorsandhospitalsfromeachplatformsshowlesssimilarities.BothGengMeiandXinYanghavehugenumbersofinactivedoctorsandhospitals.Fortheactivedoctorsandhospitals,whosenumberislessthan10%oftotal,thegroupsfromtwoplatformshavebiggerdifference.Thesegroupsofsurgeonsandhospitalsonlyhave20-30%overlaprate.(Activedoctorisdefinedasdoctorwhohasatleast1surgerypostbyhis/herpatientsonGengMei.)SummaryofRepeatRateofDoctorsandHospitalsUnitGengMeiXinYangNo.ofDoctors5,6988,450No.ofRepeatDoctors5,0445,044RepeatRate%89%60%No.ofActiveDoctors451837No.ofRepeatActiveDoctors134134RepeatRate%30%16%No.ofHospitals4,8514,445No.ofRepeatHospitals4,0294,029RepeatRate%83%91%No.ofActiveHospitals312654No.ofRepeatActiveHospitals7373RepeatRate%23%11%ComparedwithXinYang,GengMeihasfewerportionsofchiefandassociatechiefsurgeonsontheirplatform.ProfessionalTitleofActiveDoctorsGengMei%XinYang%ChiefSurgeons(主任醫(yī)師)12017%55344%AssociateChiefSurgeons(副主任醫(yī)師)12919%423%Others44364%64852%ProductandPrice:Comparedwiththebroadvarietyofproductsthatplastichospitalsprovide,bothGengMeiandXinYangfocusonlowpriceproductssuchashyaluronicacidshotanddoubleeyelidoperation.Theseproductsarecheaperinvaluethusareeasilyacceptedbyusers.OnGengMei,theplatformoffersatotalof694productswhileXinYangprovidesuserswith1,209merchandises.BothGengMeiandXinYangofferattractivediscountfortheirproducts,theirdiscountrateandaveragepricearealmostidentical.BDA’sdatascrappingindicatedthatingeneral,GengMeioffersadiscountrateof52-53%,theirproductspriceaveraging3,365RMB.SummaryofProductandPriceUnitGengMeiXinYangWeightedASPRMB3,3653,365Avg.Sold76100No.ofProduct6931,209DiscountRate%48%47%BDAverificationofGengMei’sordernumbersandASP:Generallyinlinewith“paid”or“used”ordersNumberoforders:BDAcalled59doctorsGengMeiprovidedus,andtheyallcooperatedwithGengMei.40(68%)doctors’statedGengMeiordernumbersaregenerallyinlinewiththeirrecord.19(32%)doctors’statedGengMeiordernumbersarefewerthanGengMei’sfigures.Wecheckedall19oftheminGengMei’sbacksystemandfoundthatthenumberof“paid”or“used”orderswereactuallyinlinewithdoctors’claim.AverageASP:BDA’sinterviewswith35doctorsand34usersshowthattheaverageASPisRMB2,000-3,500,whichisdifferentfromthemanagement’sclaimedRMB5,000-6,000.Howeverandagain,theASPof“paid”or“used”ordersapproximatelyagreestoRMB2,000-3,500.23outofthe35doctorshaveASPlessthanRMB5,000,andthe23doctors’averageordernumberpermonthis35.12outofthe35doctorshaveASPatRMB5,000ormore,andthe12doctors’averageordernumberpermonthis17.Thusthese1/3doctorswithhigherASPmaynotinfluencethetotal35doctors’ASPtoomuchduetotheirfewerorderspermonth.Feedbackfromdoctorsandusers:Doctors:BDAhasinterviewed35doctorsonGengMeiAppandfoundthatingeneraldoctorscanobtain20-30%extraorderseachmonthfromGengMei,andthusmostofthemaresatisfiedwiththeApp.However,doctorspointedoutthatcustomersfromGengMeiareprice-sensitive,picky,andnotloyaltothem.Detailedfindingsarelistedbelow:Doctorprofile:Wefoundmostofthesedoctors’namesarelistedontheircorrespondinghospitals’officialwebsite,whichagreeswithGengMeiusers’feedbackthatmostofthedoctorstheymetwereactuallyworkinginthehospitalsthatwereclaimedonGengMeiApp.About1/3doctorsarefromprivatehospitalsandclinics,therestarefromstate-ownedlargeandprestigiouspublichospitals.BeforeusingGengMeiApp,mostdoctorshave50to150customerseachmonth.Dependingondoctors’differentreputationsandcitytiers,andtheirmonthlypre-taxincomecanvaryfromRMB20,000to200,000.Valueproposition:Doctorswanttobuildtheirpersonalreputationsbycreatingtheirprofileswiththeircustomers’plasticsurgerycasesonGengMei.DoctorshopetoobtainsomecustomersfromGengMeiApp.Productdiscountsoffered:Inordertomarketthemselvesandattractmorecustomers,doctorsinterviewedstatethattheyarenowoffering30%to70%discountsfortheirproductsonGengMeiApp.However,non-GengMeicustomersaskingforofflineprices,welatercold-called27doctorswithrelativelylargeordersfromGengMei(someofthe27doctorsarefromthe35doctorsinterviewed),andwefound9outofthe27doctorswereinfactofferingGengMeiandNon-GengMeicustomersthesameprices.Inaddition,theaveragediscountofferedbytherest18ofthe27doctorswasinfactonly35%,lowerthanthe50%discountshowsontheapp.Thisisbecausemanydoctorsraisedthe“originalprices,”whicharehigherthantherealofflineprices,onGengMeiApp,sothattheycanclaimlargerdiscountsfortheirproducts.Mostdoctorsbelievethecurrenthighdiscountratesaresimplytemporarymarketingcampaigns,andtheywillonlyaccept20%to30%discountsforGengMeicustomersinlongterm.GengMei’scontributiontodoctors:Additionalorders:Morethan50%doctorsreportGengMeiAppcanbringthemaboutextra20-30%morecustomers,oronaverage27customerseachmonth.EachofthesecustomerswillonaveragepayaroundRMB3,200forhisorhertreatment.Additionalincome:Consideringthediscount,customersfromGengMeicanboostdoctors’monthlyincomebyaround10%,asmostofGengMeicustomersonlychooselow-pricetreatmentswithverysmallprofitmarginleftforhospitalsanddoctors.Doctors’feedbackoncustomers:NearlyalldoctorsagreethatGengMeicustomersareyounginageandsensitiveinprice.SomedoctorsstatethatGengMeicustomersarelessloyalandpickier,asthelatterwillalwaysshopforhigh-discountedtreatmentsonGengMeiAppinsteadofstickingtoonesingledoctor.“MostcustomersfromGengMeiareveryyoung.Manyofthemarecollegestudents.Asyoucanexpect,thesecustomersdonothavemuchbudgetforplasticsurgeries.Ontheotherside,theyoftendidalargeamountofresearchbeforetheycametome,sotheytendtohavemanyspecifieddemandsonthesurgeryresults,andmanyofthesedemandswereunrealistic.”--DoctorLifromGengMeiAppDoctors’evaluationonGengMei:Froma1to5scale,mostdoctorsrate4forGengMeiApp,asingeneraltheyliketheApp,buttherecanstillbevarioussmallimprovements.Alldoctorsstatethattheyaregoingtocontinueusingtheappinthefuture.NetPromotionScore：Onaverage,doctors’NetPromotionScoreforGengMeiAppis88%tootherdoctors.(NetPromotionScoreiscalculatedbyfirstaskingeachofthe35doctorstoratehisorherwillingnesstorecommendGengMeitootherdoctorsina1to10scale,thensubtractingthepercentageofdoctorswhorate1,2,3,4fromthepercentageofdoctorswhorate7,8,9,10togetthescore.Thehighertheresultingpercentage,thestrongerthewillingnessthatdoctorswouldliketorecommendtheApptootherdoctors.ThefollowingseveralNetPromotionScoreareallcalculatedbythismethod.)Users:BDAhasalsointerviewed34GengMeicustomers.OnethingtomentionthatthoseusersarewhoboughtproductsonGengMei,inotherwords,heavyusersofGengMei.WefoundthatcustomersareingeneralprettyfondofGengMeibecausetheAppoffersthemgooddoctorswithlowsurgeryprices.Detailedfindingsarelistedbelow:Userprofile:Intermsofage,about2/3ofthesecustomersarebetween20and25,whiletherestarefrom26to30.As7ofthe34customersarecollegestudents,theother27customersaredispersedintodifferentindustries.Consumerbehavior:Channeltoobtaininformation:BDAfindcustomerstendtouseonlinechannelssuchassearchengineandsocial-networkingsitestostudyplasticsurgeryknowledge.Channeltochoosedoctors/institutions/product:Traditionallycustomerswillmorelikelyrelyonoff-linechannelslikefriends’recommendationstohelpthemchoosehospitals,doctors,andproducts.CustomerswillalsorefertorealsurgerycasespostedonGengMeiAppbyotherconsumers.ValuepropositionofGengMeiCreditabilityofDoctors:Customers’keypainpointinchoosingplasticsurgeriesisinadequateinformationoftreatmentsanddoctors.OnGengMeiApp,doctors’professionalprofilesareclearlypresentedalongwithpreviouscustomers’realplasticsurgerycasesbycorrespondingdoctors,whichhelpscustomerstowiselychoosethetreatmentstheyneed.HighValueforMoney:TheAppoffersalargeamountoffreeinformationandrealcasesofplasticsurgery.ProductsofferedbyGengMeidoctorsarewithgooddiscounts.However,aswehavefoundthroughasking27doctorsforofflineprices,thediscountsenjoyedbycustomersmaynotaslargeasexpected.ConvenienceinCommunication:GengMeiAppservesasaspecifiedcosmetologycommunityforcustomerstosharetheirexperienceswitheachotherandaskquestionstodoctorswhilestayingathome.GengMeiCustomers’UnsolvedPainPoints:SomecustomersarestillworryingaboutGengMeidoctors’credentials,astheirsurgerieswereactuallyperformedatthedoctors’personalclinicsinsteadofintheprestigioushospitalsthathiredthedoctors.SomecustomershopethattherecanbemorefamousdoctorsandcomplicatedsurgeriesonGengMei.Comparisonwithpeers:MostcustomersonlyuseGengMeiastheirmobilecosmetologyApp,asveryfewhaveusedGengMei’scompetitorssuchasXinYang(新氧).MostdoctorsonXinYangarefromsmallprivatehospitalsandclinics,whiletherearemuchmoreGengMeidoctorsfromstate-ownedlargeandprestigiouspublichospitals.OnXinYang,therearetoomanyadvertisementsandpaidcomplimentarycommentsfordoctors,andthepricingformanytreatmentsareopaque.GengMeiisdoingmuchbetterintermsoftheaforementioned.XinYangreliesmoreonitsPCwebsite,whileGengMei’smobileAppisbetterwithmoreactiveusers.ConsumerbehaviorwithGengMei:Intermsoffrequency,theoverwhelmingmajorityofcustomersuseGengMeiAppatleast2or3timeseachweek.Customers’NetPromotionScoreforGengMeiAppis97%.Morethanhalfcustomershavepurchased2to3treatmentsonGengMei,andthetwomostpopularonesareHyaluronicAcidInjection(玻尿酸注射)andeyesurgeries.AveragetreatmentpricearoundRMB3,000.ConsumerfeedbackonGengMeidoctors:MostcustomersreportthathospitalsanddoctorsonGengMeiApparedecentoneswithtruequalifications,andtheyaresatisfiedwithdoctors’attitudeandtreatmentquality.Onaverage,customers’NetPromotionScoreforthedoctorstheymetthroughGengMeiis69%,andmostwillpurchaseanothertreatment,butnotnecessarilythesamedoctororsametreatment,onGengMeiAppinthefuture.Feedbackonmanagement:Manage