貨幣金融學(xué)（第十三版）課件 英文第5章 利率行為

TheEconomicsofMoney,Banking,andFinancialMarketsThirteenthEditionChapter5TheBehaviorofInterestRatesCopyright?2022,2019,2016PearsonEducation,Inc.AllRightsReservedPreviewInthischapter,weexaminehowtheoveralllevelofnominalinterestratesisdeterminedandwhichfactorsinfluencetheirbehavior.LearningObjectives(1of2)5.1Identifythefactorsthataffectthedemandforassets.5.2Drawthedemandandsupplycurvesforthebondmarketandidentifytheequilibriuminterestrate.5.3Listanddescribethefactorsthataffecttheequilibriuminterestrateinthebondmarket.LearningObjectives(2of2)5.4Describetheconnectionbetweenthebondmarketandthemoneymarketthroughtheliquiditypreferenceframework.5.5Listanddescribethefactorsthataffectthemoneymarketandtheequilibriuminterestrate.5.6Identifyandillustratetheeffectsontheinterestrateofchangesinmoneygrowthovertime.DeterminantsofAssetDemand(1of2)Economicagentsholdavarietyofdifferentassets.Whataretheprimaryassetsyouhold?Anassetisanythingthatcanbeownedandhasvalue.Assuch,itemssuchasmoney,laptops,cellphones,bonds,stocks,art,land,housesandmanufacturingmachinerywouldbeincluded.DeterminantsofAssetDemand(2of2)Wealth:thetotalresourcesownedbytheindividual,includingallassetsExpectedReturn:thereturnexpectedoverthenextperiodononeassetrelativetoalternativeassetsRisk:thedegreeofuncertaintyassociatedwiththereturnononeassetrelativetoalternativeassetsLiquidity:theeaseandspeedwithwhichanassetcanbeturnedintocashrelativetoalternativeassetsTheoryofPortfolioChoice(1of2)Holdingallotherfactorsconstant:ThequantitydemandedofanassetispositivelyrelatedtowealthThequantitydemandedofanassetispositivelyrelatedtoitsexpectedreturnrelativetoalternativeassetsThequantitydemandedofanassetisnegativelyrelatedtotheriskofitsreturnsrelativetoalternativeassetsThequantitydemandedofanassetispositivelyrelatedtoitsliquidityrelativetoalternativeassetsTheoryofPortfolioChoice(2of2)SummaryTable1ResponseoftheQuantityofanAssetDemandedtoChangesinWealth,ExpectedReturns,Risk,andLiquidityVariableChangeinVariableChangeinQuantityDemandedWealthupwardarrowupwardarrowExpectedreturnrelativetootherassetsupwardarrowupwardarrowRiskrelativetootherassetsupwardarrowDownwardarrowLiquidityrelativetootherassetsupwardarrowupwardarrowNote:Onlyincreasesinthevariablesareshown.Theeffectsofdecreasesinthevariablesonthequantitydemandedwouldbetheoppositeofthoseindicatedintherightmostcolumn.SupplyandDemandintheBondMarketAtlowerprices(higherinterestrates),ceterisparibus,thequantitydemandedofbondsishigher:aninverserelationshipAtlowerprices(higherinterestrates),ceterisparibus,thequantitysuppliedofbondsislower:apositiverelationshipFigure1SupplyandDemandforBondsMarketEquilibriumOccurswhentheamountthatpeoplearewillingtobuy(demand)equalstheamountthatpeoplearewillingtosell(supply)atagivenprice.

definestheequilibrium(ormarketclearing)priceandinterestrate.Whenthereisexcessdemand,pricewillriseandinterestratewillfall.Whenthereisexcesssupply,pricewillfallandinterestratewillrise.ChangesinEquilibriumInterestRatesShiftsinthedemandforbonds:Wealth:inanexpansionwithgrowingwealth,thedemandcurveforbondsshiftstotherightExpectedReturns:higherexpectedinterestratesinthefuturelowertheexpectedreturnforlong-termbonds,shiftingthedemandcurvetotheleftExpectedInflation:anincreaseintheexpectedrateofinflationslowerstheexpectedreturnforbonds,causingthedemandcurvetoshifttotheleftRisk:anincreaseintheriskinessofbondscausesthedemandcurvetoshifttotheleftLiquidity:increasedliquidityofbondsresultsinthedemandcurveshiftingrightFigure2ShiftintheDemandCurveforBondsShiftsintheDemandforBonds(1of2)SummaryTable2FactorsThatShifttheDemandCurveforBondsVariableChangeinVariableChangeinQuantityDemandedatEachBondPriceShiftinDemandCurveWealthUpwardarrowUpwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstherightshiftinthedemandcurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelinefordemandBtothedpowersub1slopesdownward.Alineparalleltothislineontherightsidedisplaysthenewdemandline,Btothedpowersub2.ArightarrowpointingfromBtothedpowersub1toBtothedpowersub2depictstherightshift.ExpectedinterestrateUpwardarrowDownwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheleftshiftinthedemandcurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelinefordemandBtothedpowersub1slopesdownward.AlineparalleltothislineontheleftsideshowsthenewdemandlineBtothedpowersub2.AleftarrowpointingfromBtothedpowersub1toBtothedpowersub2depictstheleftshiftExpectedinflationUpwardarrowDownwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheleftshiftinthedemandcurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelinefordemandBtothedpowersub1slopesdownward.AlineparalleltothislineontheleftsideshowsthenewdemandlineBtothedpowersub2.AleftarrowpointingfromBtothedpowersub1toBtothedpowersub2depictstheleftshift.ShiftsintheDemandforBonds(2of2)SummaryTable2[Continued]VariableChangeinVariableChangeinQuantityDemandedatEachBondPriceShiftinDemandCurveRiskinessofbondsrelativetootherassetsUpwardarrowDownwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheleftshiftinthedemandcurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelinefordemandBtothedpowersub1slopesdownward.AlineparalleltothislineontheleftsideshowsthenewdemandlineBtothedpowersub2.AleftarrowpointingfromBtothedpowersub1toBtothedpowersub2depictstheleftshift.LiquidityofbondsrelativetootherassetsUpwardarrowUpwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstherightshiftinthedemandcurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelinefordemandBtothedpowersub1slopesdownward.Alineparalleltothislineontherightsidedisplaysthenewdemandline,Btothedpowersub2.ArightarrowpointingfromBtothedpowersub1toBtothedpowersub2depictstherightshift.Note:Onlyincreasesinthevariablesareshown.Theeffectsofdecreasesinthevariablesondemandwouldbetheoppositeofthoseindicatedintheremainingcolumns.ShiftsintheSupplyofBonds(1of2)Shiftsinthesupplyforbonds:Expectedprofitabilityofinvestmentopportunities:inanexpansion,thesupplycurveshiftstotherightExpectedinflation:anincreaseinexpectedinflationshiftsthesupplycurveforbondstotherightGovernmentbudget:increasedbudgetdeficitsshiftthesupplycurvetotherightShiftsintheSupplyofBonds(2of2)SummaryTable3FactorsThatShifttheSupplyofBondsVariableChangeinVariableChangeinQuantitySuppliedatEachBondPriceShiftinSupplyCurveProfitabilityofinvestmentsUpwardarrowUpwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstherightshiftinthesupplycurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelineforsupplyBtothespowersub1slopesupward.AlineparalleltothislineontherightsidedisplaysthenewsupplylineBtothespowersub2.ArightarrowpointingfromBtothespowersub1toBtothespowersub2depictstherightshiftExpectedinflationUpwardarrowUpwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstherightshiftinthesupplycurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelineforsupplyBtothespowersub1slopesupward.AlineparalleltothislineontherightsidedisplaysthenewsupplylineBtothespowersub2.ArightarrowpointingfromBtothespowersub1toBtothespowersub2depictstherightshift.GovernmentdeficitUpwardarrowUpwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstherightshiftinthesupplycurve.Theverticalaxisislabeled,Pandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,B.ThelineforsupplyBtothespowersub1slopesupward.AlineparalleltothislineontherightsidedisplaysthenewsupplylineBtothespowersub2.ArightarrowpointingfromBtothespowersub1toBtothespowersub2depictstherightshift.Note:Onlyincreasesinthevariablesareshown.Theeffectsofdecreasesinthevariablesonthesupplywouldbetheoppositeofthoseindicatedintheremainingcolumns.Figure3ShiftintheSupplyCurveforBondsFigure4ResponsetoaChangeinExpectedInflation:TheFisherEffectFigure5ExpectedInflationandInterestRates(Three-MonthTreasuryBills),1953–2020Sources:FederalReserveBankofSt.LouisF

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Ddatabase:/series/TB3MS;/series/CPIAUCSL/.ExpectedinflationcalculatedusingproceduresoutlinedinFredericS.Mishkin,“TheRealInterestRate:AnEmpiricalInvestigation,”Carnegie-Rochester

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15(1981):151–200.Theseproceduresinvolveestimatingexpectedinflationasafunctionofpastinterestrates,inflation,andtimetrends.Figure6ResponsetoaBusinessCycleExpansionFigure7BusinessCycleandInterestRates(Three-MonthTreasuryBills),1951–2020Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.LouisF

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Ddatabase:/series/TB3MS.SupplyandDemandintheMarketforMoney:TheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(1of2)Keynesianmodelthatdeterminestheequilibriuminterestrateintermsofthesupplyofanddemandformoney.Therearetwomaincategoriesofassetsthatpeopleusetostoretheirwealth:moneyandbonds.Totalwealthintheeconomy=Rearranging:IfthemarketformoneyisinequilibriumthenthebondmarketisalsoinequilibriumFigure8EquilibriumintheMarketforMoneySupplyandDemandintheMarketforMoney:TheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(2of2)Demandformoneyintheliquiditypreferenceframework:Astheinterestrateincreases:Theopportunitycostofholdingmoneyincreases…Therelativeexpectedreturnofmoneydecreases……andthereforethequantitydemandedofmoneydecreases.ChangesinEquilibriumInterestRatesintheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(1of4)Shiftsinthedemandformoney:IncomeEffect:ahigherlevelofincomecausesthedemandformoneyateachinterestratetoincreaseandthedemandcurvetoshifttotherightPrice-LevelEffect:ariseinthepricelevelcausesthedemandformoneyateachinterestratetoincreaseandthedemandcurvetoshifttotherightChangesinEquilibriumInterestRatesintheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(2of4)Shiftsinthesupplyofmoney:Assumethatthesupplyofmoneyiscontrolledbythecentralbank.AnincreaseinthemoneysupplyengineeredbytheFederalReservewillshiftthesupplycurveformoneytotheright.ChangesinEquilibriumInterestRatesintheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(3of4)SummaryTable4FactorsThatShifttheDemandforandSupplyofMoneyVariableChangeinVariableChangeinMoneyDemandMtothedpowerorSupplyMtothespoweratEachInterestRateChangeinInterestRateBlankIncomeupwardarrowMtothedpower,upwardarrowupwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheshiftinthedemandcurveofmoney.Theverticalaxisislabeled,iandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,M.ThelineforsupplyMtothespowerisaverticallinefromapointonthehorizontalaxis.ThelinefordemandMtothedpowersub1slopesdownwardfromtheupperleftcornertothelowerrightcornerintersectingthesupplylineatinterestrate.AlineparalleltothelineforMtothedpowersub1totherightdisplaysthenewdemandlineMtothedpowersub2.AnarrowfromMtothedpowersub1toMtothedpowersub2depictsarightshiftinthedemand.PricelevelupwardarrowMtothedpower,upwardarrowupwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheshiftinthedemandcurveofmoney.Theverticalaxisislabeled,iandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,M.ThelineforsupplyMtothespowerisaverticallinefromapointonthehorizontalaxis.ThelinefordemandMtothedpowersub1slopesdownwardfromtheupperleftcornertothelowerrightcornerintersectingthesupplylineatinterestrate.AlineparalleltothelineforMtothedpowersub1totherightdisplaysthenewdemandlineMtothedpowersub2.AnarrowfromMtothedpowersub1toMtothedpowersub2depictsarightshiftinthedemand.ChangesinEquilibriumInterestRatesintheLiquidityPreferenceFramework(4of4)SummaryTable4[Continued]VariableChangeinVariableChangeinMoneyDemandMtothedpowerorSupplyMtothespoweratEachInterestRateChangeinInterestRateBlankMoneysupplyupwardarrowMtothespowerupwardarrowdownwardarrowAlinegraphdepictstheshiftinthesupplycurveofmoney.Theverticalaxisislabeled,iandthehorizontalaxisislabeled,M.ThelineforsupplyMtothespowersub1isaverticallinefromapointonthehorizontalaxis.AlineparalleltothelineforMtothespowersub1totherightdisplaysthenewsupplylineMtothespowersub2.AnarrowfromMtothespowersub1toMtothespowersub2depictsarightshiftinthesupply.ThelinefordemandMtothedpowerslopesdownwardfromtheupperleftcornertothelowerrightcornerintersectingthelineMtothespowersub1atinterestrateequalsi1andMtothespowersub2atinterestrate.Note:Onlyincreasesinthevariablesareshown.Theeffectsofdecreasesinthevariablesondemandandsupplywouldbetheoppositeofthoseindicatedintheremainingcolumns.Figure9ResponsetoaChangeinIncomeorthePriceLevelFigure10ResponsetoaChangeintheMoneySupplyMoneyandInterestRatesAonetimeincreaseinthemoneysupplywillcausepricestorisetoapermanentlyhigherlevelbytheendoftheyear.Theinterestratewillriseviatheincreasedprices.Price-leveleffectremainsevenafterpriceshavestoppedrising.Arisingpricelevelwillraiseinterestratesbecausepeoplewillexpectinflationtobehigheroverthecourseoftheyear.Whenthepricelevelstopsrising,expectationsofinflationwillreturntozero.Expected-inflationeffectpersistsonlyaslongasthepricelevelcontinuestorise.DoesaHigherRateofGrowthoftheMoneySupplyLowerInterestRates?(1of2)Liquiditypr