Incrementum-2024年8月月度黃金指南針（英）-81正式版

MonthlyGoldCompassAugust2024Ronald-PeterSt?ferleMarkJ.Valek1.Gold“Iviewgoldastheprimaryglobalcurrency.Itistheonlycurrency,alongwithsilver,thatdoesnotrequireacounterpartysignature.”AlanGreenspan4GoldPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2000–2024YTDYear2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024YTDCAGRUSD-5.3%2.4%24.4%19.6%5.6%18.1%23.0%30.9%5.4%24.8%29.5%10.2%7.1%-28.0%-1.8%-10.4%8.5%13.1%-1.5%18.3%25.0%-3.6%-0.2%13.1%18.6%9.1%EUR1.2%8.3%GBP2.0%5.3%12.2%8.0%-1.7%31.6%8.1%29.2%43.1%12.9%34.2%10.6%2.5%-29.4%4.4%-5.3%29.6%3.3%AUD11.3%11.4%13.3%-10.7%1.5%25.9%14.3%18.0%30.5%-1.6%13.6%10.3%5.3%CAD-1.9%8.8%CNY-5.4%2.4%24.4%19.6%5.6%15.1%19.0%22.5%-1.5%24.8%25.1%5.2%6.0%-30.1%0.7%-6.2%16.1%6.0%JPY5.8%18.0%12.2%8.1%CHF-4.2%5.5%3.5%7.4%INR1.4%5.8%23.7%13.9%0.1%22.8%20.7%16.9%30.0%19.2%24.8%30.7%11.1%-19.1%0.2%Average0.6%7.6%15.8%7.2%0.5%26.1%17.5%21.4%14.6%17.6%24.3%12.1%7.4%-24.3%5.6%-4.5%12.0%6.2%5.6%22.9%-1.3%-2.0%14.1%23.3%12.0%28.7%7.9%22.8%12.7%4.2%-23.0%7.5%6.8%5.3%5.9%6.8%12.6%22.6%-4.3%7.0%10.5%23.7%8.9%-0.2%-1.9%35.1%10.4%18.5%10.0%21.8%38.6%13.9%5.0%-30.9%11.6%-0.1%12.1%-0.9%3.0%0.8%-3.1%36.3%14.1%21.8%-0.8%21.1%16.8%10.7%4.5%-29.8%9.4%-9.7%10.3%8.3%-0.8%16.6%14.3%-0.6%1.1%2.9%23.8%6.5%35.9%24.2%22.5%-14.2%27.9%13.2%4.5%20.7%-12.6%11.6%-9.9%5.4%-16.1%7.3%0.6%9.6%4.6%-5.9%11.4%6.3%9.0%4.3%8.9%4.1%-4.2%17.2%18.8%7.5%13.7%21.6%26.1%10.8%7.3%3.1%21.0%14.8%3.6%6.0%9.7%13.7%21.3%-2.6%11.6%7.4%18.8%14.1%2.2%19.7%17.2%-6.1%8.3%16.3%20.7%8.5%21.3%28.0%-1.7%10.8%13.7%19.4%12.0%17.7%19.6%-0.6%7.2%12.0%21.6%9.3%6.3%13.1%23.5%9.1%21.0%8.8%17.5%10.1%Source:ReutersEikon(asof07/31/2024),IncrementumAG5AnnualizedPerformanceofGold,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayoftheMonthandHelduntil07/31/2024(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220239.17%9.87%10.04%9.17%9.17%9.39%8.17%7.81%6.04%6.43%5.76%4.58%2.75%3.39%6.61%6.97%9.56%9.73%9.52%11.68%9.87%8.18%12.71%16.26%9.07%9.89%9.83%9.47%9.29%9.26%8.28%7.69%5.75%6.34%5.56%4.16%2.98%3.88%6.01%7.67%8.35%9.39%9.99%11.99%10.14%10.35%10.47%21.51%9.31%10.09%9.78%9.70%8.94%9.39%8.10%7.79%6.17%6.57%5.62%4.09%3.13%3.81%6.39%8.02%8.50%9.50%10.05%12.52%10.56%11.12%10.15%16.63%9.43%10.02%9.72%9.70%9.49%9.35%7.46%7.69%6.54%6.85%5.23%3.42%3.18%4.56%6.38%8.09%7.95%9.38%10.30%12.87%9.07%10.23%11.55%16.79%9.48%10.02%9.48%9.37%9.42%9.63%7.60%7.89%6.45%6.19%5.03%3.59%3.75%5.18%6.77%8.11%8.86%9.49%10.68%12.72%8.56%7.99%13.59%19.32%9.23%9.97%9.70%9.68%9.48%9.43%7.92%8.04%6.21%6.62%4.91%3.79%3.56%6.33%6.20%8.36%7.83%9.94%11.48%11.28%7.93%10.78%15.03%23.14%9.47%10.08%9.92%9.59%9.56%9.54%7.75%7.94%6.32%6.45%5.31%3.17%3.51%5.71%6.62%9.25%7.63%9.71%12.07%11.40%5.39%10.21%16.98%22.50%9.49%9.98%9.81%9.34%9.35%9.52%7.86%7.89%6.99%6.51%4.94%2.29%3.13%5.24%6.64%8.92%8.14%9.20%12.60%10.00%5.58%10.51%19.60%9.59%9.71%9.67%9.24%9.28%9.13%8.18%7.29%6.71%6.14%4.60%3.23%2.75%5.77%7.37%9.22%8.15%9.83%12.93%10.89%6.88%12.04%22.46%9.78%9.97%9.80%9.30%9.19%9.22%8.14%6.90%8.00%5.91%4.34%2.82%3.02%5.84%7.76%9.01%8.65%10.06%12.77%10.46%7.15%11.83%24.68%9.72%10.10%9.82%9.15%8.95%8.91%7.78%7.04%7.23%5.08%4.23%2.69%3.08%6.43%7.89%9.99%9.96%10.15%12.84%11.42%8.91%12.42%20.40%9.72%10.06%9.44%8.97%9.14%8.68%7.92%6.68%6.76%5.63%4.07%3.60%3.31%6.87%7.80%10.12%10.33%9.92%12.07%10.79%7.20%11.55%19.27%Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG6CorrelationTableforGold,07/31/2024DXY-0.37GDX0.90S&P5000.43VIX-0.35CRBTR0.28WTI0.17Copper0.06Bitcoin-0.1115D30D-0.460.840.320.010.380.280.35-0.1560D-0.510.880.34-0.110.460.250.580.0490D-0.400.840.26-0.050.370.210.520.01120D-0.430.830.24-0.060.290.140.480.07150D-0.420.820.24-0.080.270.130.450.05180D-0.460.820.24-0.030.230.090.440.0352WeekHighDate-0.030.920.600.770.700.710.830.3711/13/2023-0.746/20/20240.598/11/2023-0.4511/20/2023-0.5511/9/2023-0.1711/8/2023-0.296/26/2024-0.053/28/2024-0.5452WeekLowDate1/5/20240%11/27/2023100%0%11/27/202383%8/3/202347%2/29/202489%9/27/202375%2/12/202498%12/8/202358%%Time(+)%Time(-)52WeekHighDate100%-0.3117%53%11%25%2%42%0.840.420.290.480.400.560.1711/21/2023-0.614/12/20240.7310/12/2023-0.072/12/2024-0.3410/27/20230.0611/9/2023-0.087/8/20240.194/19/2024-0.2152WeekLowDate8/4/20230%12/12/2023100%0%8/2/202394%9/26/202347%3/27/2024100%0%8/28/202387%4/17/2024100%0%12/8/202361%%Time(+)%Time(-)100%6%53%13%39%Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG7Gold,inUSD,01/1970–07/20242,7502,5002,2502,0001,7501,5001,2502,4842,0731,9201,6141,0311,0001,045835750681500196250025410219701975198019851990199520002005201020152020Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG8GoldinUSD,andEUR,08/2022–07/20242,5002,4002,3002,2002,1002,0001,9001,8001,7001,60008/202211/202202/202305/202308/202311/202302/202405/2024USDEURSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG9Gold,inUSD,andIncrementumWorldGoldPrice(IWGP),08/2014–07/20243,8003,4003,0002,6002,2001,8001,4001,0002014201520162017201820192020202120222023USDIWGPSource:WorldBank,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG10COMEXGoldDeliveries,inThousandsofTroyOunces,01/2007–07/20246,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000200720092011201320152017201920212023COMEXGoldDeliveries12MonthAverageSource:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG11Gold(Nominal),andGold(USCPIAdjusted–June2024),inUSD,01/1970–06/20243,000USD2,6372,5002,0001,5001,000500019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020RecessionGold(Nominal)Gold(USCPIAdjusted–

June2024)Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG12GoldinVariousDevelopedMarketCurrencies,2024YTD30%27.6%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.1%25.3%24.6%24.4%25%20%15%10%5%24.1%23.6%23.8%23.4%20.9%20.6%20.1%19.4%18.6%17.5%0%GBPUSDPLNSGDISKEURAUDCADCHFILSHUFCZKKRWTWDSEKNZDJPYNOKSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG13GoldinVariousDevelopedMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-0.9%-0.8%-1.1%-1.5%-1.5%-2.0%-2.7%-6.1%JPYCHFKRWGBPSGDPLNUSDTWDEURILSAUDNZDCADISKHUFNOKSEKCZKSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG14GoldinVariousEmergingMarketCurrencies,2024YTD140%120%100%80%118.2%86.3%60%38.3%36.6%40%33.4%30.4%27.0%CLP24.9%25.3%24.0%COP22.6%THB20.7%20.9%19.2%19.4%18.1%18.7%20%0%14.5%RUBZARMYRPENINRCNYVESPHPIDRMXNTRYARSBRLEGPNGNSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG15GoldinVariousEmergingMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.2%0.0%0.0%-0.4%-0.6%-0.6%-0.5%-1.0%-1.2%-1.2%-1.5%-2.2%-2.4%-2.6%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-22.1%RUBMYRZARTHBCNYCLPMXNPHPINRTRYVESIDRPENARSCOPNGNEGPBRLSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG16MonthlyGoldETFFlowsbyRegion(lhs),inTonnes,andGold(rhs),inUSD,01/2004–06/20244,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005002,5002,0001,5001,0005000020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaOtherGoldSource:WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG17MonthlyGoldETFFlowsbyRegion(lhs),inTonnes,andGold(rhs),inUSD,01/2004–06/2024250200150100502,5002,0001,5001,0005000-50-100-150-200020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaOtherGoldSource:WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG18Gold/SilverRatio,08/2014–07/2024130120110100908070605020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024RecessionGold/SilverRatioSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG192.Silver“Tradingsilverisatoughwaytomakeaneasyliving.”RichRoss20SilverPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2000–2024YTDYear2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024YTDCAGRUSD-15.0%0.4%EUR-9.1%6.2%-12.4%3.9%GBP-8.4%3.3%-6.8%12.5%6.6%44.6%28.4%13.3%3.9%34.7%89.9%-9.9%4.8%-37.2%-14.2%-6.7%37.6%-2.9%-3.2%10.8%43.4%-10.8%15.2%-5.8%21.0%8.1%AUD0.0%9.2%CAD-11.9%6.7%2.0%2.7%CNY-15.0%0.4%JPY-5.0%15.7%-6.9%12.6%9.3%49.3%47.4%7.4%-37.7%52.7%60.2%-14.9%23.4%-22.3%-8.3%-11.2%11.9%2.5%-11.2%14.2%40.5%-1.6%17.3%6.7%CHF-13.9%3.5%-14.1%11.9%5.1%49.8%35.5%6.8%-28.0%44.6%65.3%-9.9%6.9%-37.5%-10.2%-11.0%17.1%1.8%-8.0%13.6%35.2%-9.0%4.4%INR-8.9%3.8%2.7%18.6%8.6%Average-9.7%5.5%-3.9%11.6%9.0%38.6%39.5%6.4%-16.8%40.4%75.9%-8.7%9.8%-32.7%-13.2%-5.9%18.9%-0.2%-4.4%14.6%41.4%-9.0%10.6%-1.7%25.3%7.3%3.3%-6.0%-7.0%10.0%38.4%35.8%3.4%-5.3%17.5%60.8%-10.2%7.6%-25.4%-11.9%-0.9%16.3%-1.6%1.0%15.7%34.9%-6.5%9.8%3.3%24.6%14.5%29.7%46.1%14.8%-23.5%48.9%83.4%-10.3%9.5%-36.0%-19.3%-11.7%15.2%6.4%-8.7%15.2%47.8%-11.7%3.0%-0.9%22.2%7.1%24.6%14.5%26.5%41.3%7.4%-28.5%49.0%77.0%-14.3%8.4%-37.8%-17.3%-7.6%23.2%-0.3%-3.5%16.6%38.6%-14.1%11.8%2.0%6.3%6.2%48.5%31.1%3.8%-20.2%45.4%96.2%-7.2%7.3%-38.5%-8.3%-1.6%19.0%-6.8%-4.4%17.8%35.7%-5.2%9.4%25.4%46.4%-1.8%-6.6%28.8%73.8%-8.2%6.5%-31.4%-11.7%5.2%11.8%-0.4%-1.0%9.7%35.0%43.3%2.5%-5.6%42.3%76.6%6.4%13.6%-28.0%-17.7%-7.2%18.3%-0.1%-0.5%18.1%51.3%-10.0%14.4%-0.3%23.0%10.0%44.9%-12.4%10.5%-3.1%27.4%6.9%-3.8%24.6%6.8%-0.8%27.3%7.1%-9.7%27.5%4.5%24.3%6.5%30.0%8.8%Source:ReutersEikon(asof07/31/2024),IncrementumAG21AnnualizedPerformanceofSilver,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayoftheMonthandHelduntil07/31/2024(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220237.21%7.95%8.90%8.66%7.77%7.76%6.01%4.45%3.33%5.48%4.10%0.26%-1.04%-0.68%4.03%5.60%8.63%6.88%8.17%11.18%10.94%2.04%10.48%13.66%7.39%8.29%8.64%8.96%7.43%7.33%6.07%4.20%2.35%5.27%3.99%-1.12%-1.39%0.16%3.04%6.06%8.18%6.34%9.17%11.95%13.13%2.50%7.15%24.42%7.47%8.51%8.53%9.14%6.58%7.49%5.16%4.55%3.23%5.38%3.59%-1.91%-0.84%0.22%3.79%6.10%7.81%6.48%9.39%12.77%18.01%5.22%6.77%14.11%7.53%8.50%8.67%8.97%8.04%7.72%4.19%4.57%3.40%5.74%3.16%-3.70%-0.52%1.59%4.13%6.50%6.03%7.40%9.53%13.27%16.42%3.48%11.02%11.72%7.60%8.46%8.23%9.15%7.96%7.37%4.73%4.58%3.41%4.09%3.20%-2.10%0.40%2.41%4.39%6.16%7.50%7.41%9.62%14.03%12.13%1.05%14.18%18.49%7.53%8.59%8.44%9.15%8.29%7.67%5.51%5.08%3.23%5.14%3.21%-1.34%0.46%3.57%3.25%6.90%5.54%8.14%10.05%13.18%11.96%3.40%18.08%23.21%7.59%8.70%8.71%8.57%7.72%7.56%5.36%4.90%3.13%5.01%3.47%-2.39%0.32%3.51%3.58%7.72%4.52%8.03%10.85%12.08%4.37%4.34%18.66%15.75%7.64%8.79%8.90%8.64%7.57%7.92%4.62%5.31%4.86%4.55%2.95%-2.71%-0.73%1.95%4.09%7.93%5.71%7.44%12.26%9.60%0.70%6.71%27.09%7.76%8.34%8.86%8.66%7.50%7.46%5.35%4.51%5.69%3.82%2.11%-0.23%-1.43%2.73%5.58%8.09%5.40%8.41%12.31%11.50%5.87%9.63%24.74%7.91%8.82%8.91%8.77%7.24%7.43%4.96%4.22%7.09%3.98%1.17%-1.26%-0.88%2.66%6.15%7.34%6.39%8.43%13.01%10.23%5.51%7.18%25.49%7.99%8.91%9.03%8.50%6.96%6.95%4.22%4.46%6.84%3.13%0.25%-0.96%-1.19%3.55%6.71%8.61%7.58%8.81%13.28%11.89%6.89%9.18%16.57%8.10%8.46%8.70%7.99%7.67%6.60%4.71%4.14%6.21%3.79%-0.45%0.37%-0.37%3.84%6.59%8.93%8.14%8.41%11.73%11.01%2.66%8.64%12.18%Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG22CorrelationTableforSilver,07/31/2024DXY-0.02SIL0.65S&P5000.32VIX-0.10CRBTR0.36WTI0.14Copper0.36Bitcoin-0.1415D30D-0.160.670.270.200.440.300.19-0.2260D-0.340.820.290.030.640.400.130.0790D-0.330.800.190.060.510.310.06-0.01120D-0.380.790.190.000.430.270.100.07150D-0.360.780.20-0.010.380.210.140.08180D-0.400.780.210.010.310.160.210.0452WeekHighDate-0.060.910.560.470.760.580.700.387/29/2024-0.776/24/20240.558/23/2023-0.1311/13/2023-0.626/13/2024-0.117/3/2024-0.409/28/202374%1/19/2024-0.123/22/2024-0.4952WeekLowDate8/17/20230%9/22/2023100%0%11/13/202387%8/3/202356%9/28/202396%4/29/202490%12/4/202363%%Time(+)%Time(-)52WeekHighDate100%-0.3313%44%4%26%10%37%0.840.370.160.510.340.540.177/31/2024-0.597/5/20240.719/14/20230.101/12/2024-0.307/31/20240.077/12/2024-0.013/20/202498%10/2/20230.023/28/2024-0.1952WeekLowDate8/11/20230%9/29/2023100%0%7/16/2024100%0%9/20/202339%2/29/2024100%0%6/26/2024100%0%12/8/202361%%Time(+)%Time(-)100%61%2%39%Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG23Silver,inUSD,01/1970–07/2024555049.5148.004540353025201510532.5230.0321.2417.5311.626.708.423.823.53019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG24Silver,inUSD,andIncrementumWorldSilverPrice(IWSP),08/2014–07/2024555045403530252015102014201520162017201820192020202120222023USDIWSPSource:SDBullion,WorldBank,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG25COMEXSilverDeliveries,inMillionsofTroyOunces,01/2007–07/20249080706050403020100200720092011201320152017201920212023COMEXSilverDeliveries12MonthAverageSource:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG26Silver(Nominal),andSilver(USCPIAdjusted–June2024),inUSD,01/1970–06/2024160USD147.0914012010080604020019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020RecessionSilver(Nominal)Silver(USCPIAdjusted–

June2024)Source:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG27PerformanceofSilverRelativetoGold(Monthly),08/2014–07/202430%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023OutperformanceUnderperformanceSource:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG283.Miner“Youmakemostofyourmoneyinabearmarket,youjustdon’trealizeitatthetime.”ShelbyCullomDavis29MonthlyPerformanceofBullionandMiners,08/2022–07/2024GoldHUIGDXGDXJSilverSILSILJAug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23-3.09%-2.98%-1.60%8.29%3.16%5.67%-5.22%7.70%1.11%-1.37%-2.18%2.32%-1.24%-4.71%7.27%2.68%1.32%-1.23%0.30%9.26%2.38%1.81%-0.05%5.22%-9.91%4.03%-9.40%1.34%-11.93%-0.51%0.14%-11.56%5.73%-11.64%3.43%-10.55%3.40%0.72%0.17%0.74%3.77%1.43%17.17%0.18%20.24%-1.34%11.72%-14.08%17.59%3.80%21.08%-0.20%9.26%15.96%7.98%14.35%-1.54%7.53%16.86%-2.41%6.07%11.65%-15.27%17.87%1.74%-1.11%-11.76%15.11%4.00%-13.25%16.90%0.63%-11.98%15.23%-2.73%-9.74%-3.63%6.81%-13.58%14.99%-2.43%-10.69%-3.20%10.02%-7.36%-11.30%-0.59%16.13%2.15%-7.62%-2.85%3.47%-7.95%-2.59%4.32%-6.57%-3.98%5.61%-6.23%-3.09%8.87%Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24-6.06%-9.06%5.19%-6.84%-8.03%4.09%-4.43%-10.45%3.44%-1.35%-9.31%3.34%-4.54%-9.81%0.54%10.88%0.88%11.82%-0.99%-9.90%-5.65%19.95%4.78%15.57%-1.61%-10.84%-5.68%21.52%4.44%10.26%-5.90%-3.55%-1.08%10.17%5.23%15.31%2.38%-10.13%-6.70%21.17%4.53%-10.47%-9.06%18.87%11.36%13.44%-10.09%10.48%-12.80%-8.14%23.97%10.07%14.73%-9.73%11.57%8.06%6.55%11.54%-6.67%9.62%15.58%-4.11%-0.30%-4.07%13.89%-3.88%11.79%CAGRMAXMIN17.7%9.3%21.3%21.2%-15.3%20.2%20.2%-14.1%17.2%21.5%-13.2%19.5%16.0%-11.8%14.3%18.9%-12.0%13.2%24.0%-13.6%-5.2%CurrentPrice2,447305.137.946.1729.0434.4612.63Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG30GDX/GoldRatio(top),andGDXJ/GDXRatio(bottom),08/2014–07/20240.026GDX/GoldRatio0.0220.0180.0140.01020142015201620172018201920202021202220231.81.61.41.21.0GDXJ/GDXRatio2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG31SIL/SilverRatio(top),andSILJ/SILRatio(bottom),08/2014–07/20243.0SIL/SilverRatio2.52.01.51.020142015201620172018201920202021202220230.420.380.340.300.26SILJ/SILRatio2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG324.Macro(Inflation,Markets,Positioning,etc.)“Wenowunderstandbetterhowlittleweunderstandaboutinflation.”JeromePowell33InflationHeatMap(DevelopedMarkets),yoy,07/2022–06/2024USACPICanadaCPIEuroAreaHICPGermanyHICPFranceHICPItalyHICPSwitzerlandCPIGreatBritainCPIJapanCPISouthKoreaCPIAustraliaCPIJul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-238.52%8.26%8.20%7.75%7.11%6.45%6.41%6.04%4.98%4.93%4.05%2.97%3.18%3.67%3.70%3.24%3.14%3.35%3.09%3.15%3.48%3.36%3.27%2.97%7.59%7.01%6.86%6.88%6.80%6.32%5.92%5.25%4.30%4.41%3.36%2.81%3.27%4.00%3.80%3.12%3.12%3.40%2.86%2.78%2.90%2.69%2.87%2.67%8.87%9.14%9.93%10.62%10.05%9.20%8.64%8.50%6.88%6.95%6.09%5.50%5.28%5.22%4.31%2.88%2.37%2.90%2.75%2.57%2.41%2.36%2.55%2.51%8.48%8.83%10.90%11.56%11.26%9.61%9.17%9.27%7.75%7.61%6.26%6.77%6.47%6.44%4.34%3.00%2.27%3.77%3.10%2.75%2.32%2.38%2.79%2.54%6.78%6.56%6.23%7.07%7.08%6.73%7.04%7.29%6.68%6.89%6.01%5.33%5.07%5.72%5.66%4.55%3.86%4.10%3.40%3.21%2.41%2.37%2.60%2.54%8.36%9.11%9.37%12.57%12.58%12.34%10.67%9.84%8.09%8.59%7.99%6.75%6.29%5.54%5.62%1.83%0.58%0.50%0.92%0.84%1.25%0.91%0.82%0.90%3.43%3.45%3.25%3.00%2.96%2.84%3.28%3.37%2.95%2.57%2.16%1.71%1.61%1.55%1.65%1.69%1.44%1.71%1.28%1.17%1.04%1.37%1.39%1.33%10.10%9.87%10.10%11.05%10.67%10.53%10.05%10.42%10.06%8.66%8.68%7.95%6.83%6.66%6.65%4.60%3.94%3.99%3.98%3.41%3.23%2.33%1.99%1.98%2.61%3.01%3.00%3.80%3.80%4.00%4.39%3.28%3.26%3.55%3.24%3.34%3.32%3.12%3.01%3.28%2.89%2.59%2.10%2.79%2.68%2.47%2.85%2.85%6.33%5.72%5.48%5.62%5.01%5.02%4.98%4.66%4.17%3.69%3.38%2.73%2.35%3.36%3.70%3.77%3.31%3.18%2.82%3.13%3.10%2.92%2.67%2.41%6.52%6.90%7.27%7.46%7.65%7.83%7.56%7.29%7.02%6.69%6.35%6.03%5.81%5.59%5.37%4.93%4.49%4.05%3.91%3.76%3.62%3.69%3.75%Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG34InflationHeatMap(EmergingMarkets),yoy,07/2022–06/2024ArgentinaCPIBrazilCPIMexicoCPISouthAfricaCPINigeriaCPITurkeyCPIRussiaCPIChinaCPIIndiaCPIIndonesiaCPIThailandCPIJul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-2371.00%78.50%10.07%8.73%7.17%6.47%5.90%5.79%5.77%5.60%4.65%4.18%3.94%3.16%3.99%4.61%5.19%4.82%4.68%4.62%4.51%4.50%3.93%3.69%3.93%4.23%8.15%8.70%8.70%8.41%7.80%7.82%7.91%7.62%6.85%6.25%5.84%5.06%4.79%4.64%4.45%4.26%4.32%4.66%4.88%4.40%4.42%4.65%4.69%4.98%7.85%7.61%7.50%7.58%7.44%7.20%6.89%7.04%7.07%6.84%6.30%5.37%4.73%4.81%5.37%5.92%5.52%5.13%5.32%5.56%5.32%5.21%5.20%5.10%19.64%20.52%20.77%21.09%21.47%21.34%21.82%21.91%22.04%22.22%22.41%22.79%24.08%25.80%26.72%27.33%28.20%28.92%29.90%31.70%33.20%33.69%33.95%34.19%79.60%80.21%83.45%85.51%84.39%64.27%57.68%55.18%50.51%43.68%39.59%38.21%47.83%58.94%61.53%61.36%61.98%64.77%64.86%67.07%68.50%69.80%75.45%71.60%15.07%14.29%13.66%12.68%11.97%11.92%11.81%10.96%3.51%2.29%2.50%3.25%4.31%5.16%6.03%6.67%7.48%7.42%7.44%7.71%7.72%7.86%8.30%8.56%2.70%2.50%2.80%2.10%1.60%1.80%2.10%1.00%0.70%0.10%0.20%0.00%-0.30%0.10%0.00%-0.20%-0.50%-0.30%-0.80%0.70%0.10%0.30%0.30%0.20%6.71%7.00%7.41%6.77%5.88%5.72%6.52%6.44%5.66%4.70%4.31%4.87%7.44%6.83%5.02%4.87%5.55%5.69%5.10%5.09%4.85%4.83%4.80%5.08%4.93%4.53%5.92%5.64%5.39%5.41%5.10%5.38%5.01%4.35%4.09%3.54%3.11%3.45%2.29%2.64%2.98%2.81%2.57%2.75%3.05%3.00%2.84%2.51%7.61%7.86%6.41%5.98%5.55%5.89%5.02%3.79%2.83%2.67%0.53%0.23%0.38%0.88%0.30%-0.31%-0.44%-0.83%-1.11%-0.77%-0.47%0.19%1.54%0.62%83.00%88.00%92.40%94.80%98.80%102.50%104.30%108.80%114.20%115.60%113.40%124.40%138.30%142.70%160.90%211.40%254.20%276.20%287.90%289.40%276.40%271.50%Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG35InflationHeatMap(UnitedStates),yoy,07/2022–06/2024ClevelandFed1YInflationExpectationsUni.Michigan1YInflationExpectationsUni.Michigan5YInflationExpectationsCase-ShillerUSNationalHPICPICoreCPIPCECorePCEPPICorePPIUSImportPricesJul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-238.52%8.26%8.20%7.75%7.11%6.45%6.41%6.04%4.98%4.93%4.05%2.97%3.18%3.67%3.70%3.24%3.14%3.35%3.09%3.15%3.48%3.36%3.27%2.97%5.90%6.30%6.64%6.29%5.96%5.68%5.54%5.49%5.56%5.52%5.33%4.86%4.71%4.41%4.14%4.02%4.02%3.91%3.87%3.76%3.80%3.62%3.41%3.28%6.62%6.52%6.56%6.35%5.93%5.44%5.48%5.19%4.44%4.45%3.96%3.20%3.31%3.35%3.37%2.94%2.70%2.62%2.48%2.50%2.72%2.68%2.60%2.51%4.96%5.21%5.47%5.33%5.09%4.87%4.90%4.84%4.78%4.76%4.69%4.28%4.19%3.73%3.59%3.38%3.18%2.94%2.94%2.83%2.83%2.79%2.62%2.63%9.67%8.67%8.48%8.15%7.40%6.41%5.77%4.76%2.70%2.30%1.18%0.31%1.16%1.88%1.80%1.08%0.77%1.05%0.99%1.61%1.90%2.23%2.43%2.65%7.60%7.21%7.17%6.93%6.25%5.71%5.02%4.63%3.34%3.11%2.79%2.54%2.73%2.51%2.33%2.16%1.94%1.79%2.04%2.14%2.18%2.43%2.56%3.00%8.77%7.67%6.08%4.24%2.68%3.20%0.86%-1.12%-4.70%-4.88%-5.74%-6.13%-4.78%-2.97%-1.47%-1.82%-1.55%-2.40%-1.34%-0.92%0.43%1.14%1.36%1.58%15.64%12.95%10.67%9.13%7.54%5.65%3.84%2.18%0.79%-0.06%-0.35%0.01%1.01%2.61%3.98%4.72%5.11%5.61%6.11%6.54%6.53%6.39%5.94%3.31%3.38%4.18%2.88%3.24%2.87%2.68%2.61%2.07%2.65%2.65%1.37%2.47%2.61%2.81%2.77%2.79%3.09%2.42%2.43%2.08%2.70%2.94%2.73%5.20%4.80%4.70%5.00%5.00%4.30%3.90%4.20%3.60%4.70%4.20%3.30%3.40%3.50%3.20%4.20%4.50%3.10%2.90%3.00%2.90%3.20%3.30%3.00%2.90%2.90%2.70%2.90%3.00%3.00%2.90%2.90%2.90%3.00%3.10%3.00%3.00%3.00%2.80%3.00%3.20%2.90%2.90%2.90%2.80%3.00%3.00%3.00%Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG36MonthlyPerformanceofVariousCommodities,08/2022–07/2024BloombergIndustrialMetalsPreciousMetalsTRSubindexBloombergBloombergAgricultureTRSubindexBloombergEnergyTRSubindexBloombergLivestockTRSubindexBloombergCommodityTRIndexGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumWTINaturalGasCopperTRSubindexAug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23-2.65%-6.27%-0.56%14.53%2.24%8.11%-9.14%-0.33%-3.43%-8.37%1.15%6.92%-4.69%1.58%-4.06%0.35%4.03%-1.90%-0.55%1.75%13.91%1.81%-5.34%-6.78%-4.92%-0.87%-1.05%8.31%5.73%4.42%-6.80%9.21%1.70%-2.42%-2.38%4.00%-1.68%-5.71%6.33%4.32%-0.45%-1.29%-0.56%8.56%4.09%4.56%-0.82%2.68%3.32%-1.88%0.77%-0.65%1.26%1.88%-3.58%0.63%-2.03%-4.65%4.60%2.12%-1.93%-4.63%1.86%1.49%-4.85%-1.51%-4.76%2.09%-1.48%3.20%-6.29%-5.29%0.98%-16.63%4.39%-1.70%-2.40%6.31%-0.17%2.20%-2.79%0.83%-2.35%1.73%-1.83%9.83%2.81%-0.38%0.28%-1.22%-5.64%-2.40%8.77%2.84%-0.79%-0.82%-1.30%0.89%2.35%0.09%-8.11%1.99%2.74%-2.45%-0.49%-4.70%-0.21%-0.75%-5.64%4.04%6.26%-0.77%-0.69%0.27%-2.25%-2.69%0.40%-1.47%3.31%2.69%1.76%-1.54%-4.04%-3.09%-2.98%-1.60%8.29%3.16%5.67%-5.22%7.70%1.11%-1.37%-2.18%2.32%-1.24%-4.71%7.27%2.68%1.32%-1.23%0.30%9.26%2.38%1.81%-0.05%5.22%-11.56%5.73%-5.67%1.52%7.77%11.56%3.57%-5.46%-5.81%4.09%8.34%-7.52%-9.26%5.32%1.93%-6.52%3.23%-0.72%6.51%-7.02%-4.59%3.68%2.81%11.16%-4.29%-1.72%-2.07%3.53%-9.20%-11.23%8.86%10.91%-25.87%-6.07%9.05%-1.83%-2.17%-0.83%9.26%2.04%11.12%-3.10%0.17%-5.71%-6.18%3.03%6.78%-5.56%-1.23%-2.27%5.15%1.34%0.57%-1.74%4.41%14.01%1.00%-4.76%-5.25%0.74%-14.68%2.16%-0.74%-12.25%-9.68%-3.25%-6.95%-0.49%-8.77%8.43%15.96%7.98%-6.91%-0.36%-1.73%-2.31%-1.79%1.47%-4.64%-8.04%-14.09%3.05%-35.43%-40.02%2.35%-1.11%-11.76%15.11%4.00%-19.33%8.75%2.81%-6.23%-3.09%8.87%-9.27%-9.89%4.47%-11.32%3.75%-5.98%23.48%-5.86%5.09%11.90%2.39%15.80%2.24%Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24-1.35%-9.31%3.34%-5.26%2.56%4.39%8.56%5.82%-2.74%-10.44%-6.03%2.79%-10.49%-9.61%8.99%-10.76%-6.25%-5.67%5.86%22.06%-21.62%-10.28%-16.47%-11.43%-5.22%12.93%29.93%0.54%10.26%-5.90%-3.55%-1.08%10.17%5.23%-11.10%-3.54%7.74%-0.42%2.43%3.18%6.27%0.37%-6.07%-4.25%6.53%-1.49%-6.03%5.91%-1.40%4.07%15.58%-4.11%-0.30%-7.65%-4.85%-4.45%-21.72%CAGRMAXMIN-0.97%14.53%-9.14%17.61%9.21%-10.22%4.60%-22.66%11.90%-16.63%7.00%9.83%-5.64%-6.54%6.26%-8.11%17.74%9.26%19.55%15.96%-11.76%4.32%11.56%-9.26%-34.07%8.99%-11.12%15.80%-11.32%-50.26%29.93%-40.02%7.74%14.01%-6.18%-6.80%-6.29%-5.22%-14.68%CurrentPrice332.7606.653.9770.256.61228.52,44729.04976.192577.912.044.16Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG37CFTCFuturesandOptionsNetLongPositioning,Non-CommercialTraders,07/26/2024AssetGold268,566-19,952248,012221,336188,770288,51860,4751.51Silver44,298-11,73651,09342,85531,85956,2605,051Platinum11,384-11,72621,35815,06612,21731,152-4,532-0.09Palladium-12,255-1,804-11,581-11,184-10,706-7,801-13,914-1.16CrudeOil286,465-6,164NaturalGas-91,0505,533Copper