WTW-全球養(yǎng)老金金融觀察-2024年第二季度（英）-13正式版WN8

GlobalPensionFinanceWatch–SecondQuarter2024ContinuedIncreasesovertheSecondQuarterContinuedrisesinglobaldiscountratesdrovepositiveWTWPensionIndexmovementsinmostregionsoverthequarter.DiscountratesincreasedinallcountriesotherthanSwitzerland.Allcountries,withtheexceptionofBrazilandtheU.K.,experiencedpositiveassetreturnsduringthequarter.WhileitisalwaysthecasethatGlobalPensionFinanceWatchcapturesresultsattheendofeachquarter,weparticularlywanttohighlightthepointintimeviewofthispublicationinlightofrecentvolatility.WTWsupportsthedailymonitoringofpensionfundedstatusandotherkeypensionfinancialmetricsforthoseorganizationswishingtoinformkeybusinessdecisions.ChangeinWTWPensionIndexLast12MonthsChangeinWTWPensionIndexQ2202415%10%5%Brazil3.3%0.7%4.7%0.0%-1.0%1.8%2.4%10.4%2.7%CanadaEurozoneJapan0%5.0%–5%–10%11.1%-1.1%-1.2%10.9%SwitzerlandU.K.U.S.TheWTWPensionIndexistheratioofthemarketvalueofassetstotheprojectedbenefitobligation(PBO)forahypotheticalbenchmarkplan.SecondQuarter2024Last12MonthsAboutthisreportGlobalPensionFinanceWatch,publishedquarterly,reviewshowcapitalmarketperformanceaffectsdefinedbenefitpensionplanfinancinginmajorretirementmarketsworldwide,withafocusonlinkedasset/liabilityresults.WecoverdefinedbenefitpensionplansinBrazil,Canada,theEurozone,Japan,Switzerland,theU.K.andtheU.S.Specificplanresultswillvary,oftensubstantially,basedonliabilitycharacteristics,contributionpolicy,portfoliocompositionandmanagementstrategyamongotherfactors.Thepassageoftimesincequarterend,mayalsohaveasignificantimpactonpensionplanfinancing.Theimpactofcapitalmarketsonthesepensionplansistwofold:.Investmentperformanceonfundassets.Changesineconomicassumptionsonplanliabilities(asmeasuredunderinternationalaccountingstandards)Ifyouhavequestionsorcommentsaboutthisreport,pleasecontactGeorgePantelidesinNewYorkatgeorge.pantelides@orFransBadenhorstinLondonatfrans.badenhorst@GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page1of13RoleofmonitoringaspartofsuccessfulglobalpensionriskmanagementThoseorganizationsthatmonitortheirglobalpensionplansarepreparedtoactquicklywhenmarketconditionsevolveandhavebeenmostsuccessfulinachievingtheircostandriskmanagementobjectives.Monitoringforsuchconditionsismosteffectivewhendoneinreal-time,tailoredtothespecificcharacteristicsofeachretirementplanandsupportingassets.Emailourexpertstotalkaboutdailymonitoringandriskreduction.TheGlobalPensionFinanceWatchcapturesresultsforbenchmarkplansattheendofeachquarterandcanbeausefulguide.Forthoseorganizationswishingtoinformkeybusinessdecisionsfortheirownplans,WTWsupportsthedailymonitoringoffundedstatusandotherkeypensionfinancialmetricsviatheCostandRiskManagementChannel.BroaderriskmanagementperspectiveBeyondfinancialmonitoring,weobservemultinationalswiththegreatestsuccessinmanagingtheirdefinedbenefitpensionrisksexhibitanumberofconsistentcharacteristics.They:

Takethetimetounderstandthecomplexrisksinherentintheplansandtheleversavailabletomanagingthatrisk

Establishaclear,centralleveloftolerableriskandstrategytomanagingwithinthosemetrics

Employasystematic,multi-localapproachtoevaluatinganddeployingriskmanagementactions

Monitorfinancialmarkets,changingpractices,legislation,andtrends.Formoreinsightsonthecommontechniquesmultinationalorganizationshavedeployedtomanagepensionrisk,weencourageyoutoreadourarticleonMasteringDBRisksGlobally.GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page2of13InvestmentreturnsandliabilitygrowthAllcountries,exceptforBrazilandtheU.K.,experiencedpositiveassetreturnsduringthesecondquarter.InvestmentreturnsLast12MonthsQ22024Brazil-2.1%0.6%0.1%0.3%0.8%-1.6%1.3%7.2%6.8%7.8%6.0%8.8%4.3%13.0%CanadaEurozoneJapanSwitzerlandU.K.U.S.Note:Allregionalfinancialresultsarestatedonalocalcurrencybasis.Benchmarkdiscountratesexperiencedincreasesinallcountries,withtheexceptionofSwitzerland.Benchmarkdiscountrate*PlanDurationJun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023Brazil12.913.816.015.715.616.113.810.76%4.96%3.59%2.41%1.27%5.13%5.58%10.12%4.86%3.27%2.39%1.36%4.84%5.38%9.69%4.62%3.14%2.36%1.32%4.50%5.19%CanadaEurozoneJapanSwitzerlandU.K.U.S.*DiscountratesforthebenchmarkplansweredeterminedusingWTW’sRATE:Linkmethodologyinthosecountrieswhereitisavailable.Thereisgenerallymorethanoneacceptableapproachfordeterminingthediscountrateineachcountry.Theapproachusedforindexpurposesisoneofseveralpossibleapproaches;otheracceptablemethodologiesmayresultinhigherorlowerdiscountrates.Liabilityvaluesshowedmixedtrendsoverthesecondquarter,includingsignificantdecreasesinBrazilandtheEurozoneandtheU.K.LiabilitygrowthfactorLast12MonthsQ22024Brazil-5.2%-0.1%-4.3%0.3%1.8%-3.4%-0.9%-2.9%4.0%2.6%-4.7%10.0%5.5%1.9%CanadaEurozoneJapanSwitzerlandU.K.U.S.Note:Theliabilitygrowthfactorreflectsthenetchangeinthebenchmarkplan’sPBOduetointerestaccumulationandchangesinfinancialassumptions.GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page3of13BrazilWTWPensionIndex—Brazil12011010090104.5asof6/30/2024807060Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsBothbondsandequitiesexhibitednegativereturns.Overall,thebenchmarkportfoliodecreased2.1%overthequarter.InvestmentreturnsDomesticequity-6.0%NA19.8%NAInternationalequityThenominalbenchmarkdiscountrateincreased65basispointsoverthequarter.ThischangeDomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolio-0.9%NA33.5%NAcombinedwithinterestaccumulationresultedinaliabilitydecreaseof5.2%overthequarter.-2.1%32.1%Jun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023Thecombinedassetandliabilityeffectwasa3.3%increaseinthepensionindexforthequarter.Interestrates30-yeargovt.bond(real)10-yeargovt.bond(real)6.50%5.88%5.82%5.47%5.33%6.52%Three-monthbenchmarkyield(nominal)10.49%10.37%NA11.30%NALong-termAA-ratedcorporatebondNABenchmarkdiscountrate(nominal)10.76%10.12%9.69%GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page4of13CanadaWTWPensionIndex—Canada10090807060504083.4asof6/30/2024Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsInvestmentreturnsDomesticequityInternationalequitiesanddomesticbondsshowedpositivereturnsoverthequarterwhiledomesticequitesshowednegativereturns.Overall,thebenchmarkportfolioincreased0.6%overthequarter.-0.5%3.0%0.2%NA12.1%22.0%0.4%NAInternationalequityDomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolio0.6%6.8%Thebenchmarkdiscountrateincreasedby10basispointsoverthequarter,whichtakentogetherwithinterestaccumulation,decreasedtheliabilityby0.1%overthequarter.Jun.Mar.Dec.2023Interestrates20243.39%3.50%4.66%20243.34%3.45%5.01%30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond3.02%3.10%5.05%Thecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementswasa0.7%increaseinthepensionindexoverthequarter.Long-termAA-ratedcorporatebond4.42%4.96%4.33%4.86%4.04%4.62%BenchmarkdiscountrateGlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page5of13EurozoneWTWPensionIndex—Eurozone1101009097.2asof6/30/202480706050Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsInvestmentreturnsDomesticequity1.7%NA14.4%NADomesticequitiesshowedpositivereturnsoverthequarterwhiledomesticbondsshowednegativereturns.Overall,thebenchmarkportfolioincreased0.1%overthequarter.InternationalequityDomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolio-0.9%NA3.5%NA0.1%7.8%Thebenchmarkdiscountrateincreasedby32basispointsoverthequarter,whichcombinedwithinterestaccumulationdecreasedtheliabilityby4.3%overthesecondquarter.Jun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023Interestrates30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond2.69%2.46%2.26%2.02%N/A2.50%N/A2.30%N/AThecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementswas4.7%increaseinthepensionindexoverthequarter.Long-termAA-ratedcorporatebond3.61%3.59%3.32%3.27%3.17%3.14%BenchmarkdiscountrateGlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page6of13JapanWTWPensionIndex—Japan12011010090118.8asof6/30/20248070605040Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsEquitiesandinternationalbondsshowedpositivereturnswhiledomesticbondsshowednegativereturns.Thisresultedina0.3%increaseintheoverallbenchmarkportfoliooverthequarter.InvestmentreturnsDomesticequity1.4%9.2%-3.4%4.0%0.3%25.4%34.4%-6.9%8.9%InternationalequityDomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolioThebenchmarkdiscountrateincreasedby2basispointsoverthequarter.Overall,withinterestaccumulationtheliabilityincreasedby0.3%overthequarter.6.0%Jun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023Thecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementsresultsinnochangeinthepensionindexoverthequarter.Interestrates30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond2.30%1.86%1.78%0.67%-0.21%1.08%0.03%0.75%-0.05%Long-termAA-ratedcorporatebondNANANABenchmarkdiscountrate2.41%2.39%2.36%GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page7of13SwitzerlandWTWPensionIndex—Switzerland14013012011010090124.8asof6/30/202480Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Bothdomesticbondsandequitiesexhibitedpositivereturns.Overall,thebenchmarkportfolioincreased0.8%overthequarter.Q22024Last12MonthsInvestmentreturnsDomesticequity3.1%NA7.1%NAInternationalequityThebenchmarkdiscountratedecreased9basispointsoverthequarter.Thischangecombinedwithinterestaccumulationincreasedliabilitiesby1.8%overthequarter.DomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincome1.3%NA5.5%NABenchmarkportfolio0.8%8.8%Thecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementswasa1.0%decreaseinthepensionindexoverthequarter.Jun.Mar.Dec.2023Interestrates20240.55%0.56%20240.65%0.65%30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond0.54%0.70%NANANANANALong-termAA-ratedcorporatebondNABenchmarkdiscountrate1.27%1.36%1.32%GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page8of13UnitedKingdomWTWPensionIndex—UnitedKingdom1101009080.2asof6/30/2024807060Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsInvestmentreturnsDomesticequityEquitiesshowedpositivereturnswhiledomesticbondsshowednegativereturnsduringthequarter.Overall,thebenchmarkportfoliodecreased1.6%overthequarter.3.0%2.9%-2.8%NA13.3%20.7%1.2%NAInternationalequityDomesticfixedincomeInternationalfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolioThebenchmarkdiscountrateincreased29basispointsoverthequarter.Overall,thischangecombinedwithinterestaccumulationdecreasedtheliabilityby3.4%overthequarter.-1.6%4.3%Jun.Mar.Dec.2023Interestrates20244.66%4.17%20244.42%3.93%Thecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementswasa1.8%increaseinthepensionindexoverthequarter.30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond4.14%3.53%5.24%5.23%5.13%5.13%5.25%4.80%4.84%Long-termAA-ratedcorporatebond4.51%4.50%BenchmarkdiscountrateGlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page9of13UnitedStatesWTWPensionIndex—UnitedStates12011010090117.0asof6/30/202480706050Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Q22024Last12MonthsDomesticequitiesandbondsshowedpositivereturnswhileinternationalequitiesshowednegativereturnsduringthesecondquarter.Overall,thebenchmarkportfolioincreased1.3%overthequarter.InvestmentreturnsDomesticequity2.5%-0.5%0.3%21.8%11.5%3.0%InternationalequityDomesticfixedincomeBenchmarkportfolio1.3%13.0%Thebenchmarkdiscountrateincreased20basispointsforthequarter.Thischangecombinedwithinterestaccumulationdecreasedtheliabilityby0.9%overthequarter.Jun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023Interestrates30-yeargovt.bond10-yeargovt.bondThree-monthgovt.bond4.51%4.34%4.03%3.88%5.40%4.36%5.48%4.20%5.46%Thecombinedeffectoftheassetandliabilitymovementswasa2.4%increaseinthepensionindexforthequarter.Long-termAA-ratedcorporatebond5.30%5.58%5.05%5.38%4.82%5.19%BenchmarkdiscountrateGlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page10of13GeneralcommentsInordertoobtainageneralindicationofpensionplanperformanceinvariouscountries,wedefinedabenchmarkpensionplanthatisintendedtoberepresentativeofthepensionliabilitiesandplanassets(includingassetmix)thataretypicallyfoundineachglobalmarket.Notethatcertainsimplifyingassumptionsaremadeaboutcashcontributionsmadetothebenchmarkplanandothercharacteristics.LiabilitymeasurementPensionplanliabilitiesundermanycommonlyusedinternationalaccountingstandards(includingASC715,CICA3461,CVM371,FRS17andIAS19)aremeasuredusingadiscountratethatissetbasedonyieldsavailableonhigh-qualitycorporatebondsasofthedatethatliabilitiesaremeasured.Whilethediscountrateisthemostcommonlyquotedassumption,liabilityandexpensecalculationsdependonanumberofadditionalassumptions,botheconomic(suchasexpectedsalaryincreasesandexpectedbenefitincreases)anddemographic.Otherfinancialassumptionsareadjustedsoastoremainconsistentwithchangesinthediscountrate.AssetsmoothingASC715andCICA3461allowplansponsorstousesmoothingmechanismstobuffertheeffectsofyear-to-yearinvestmentperformance.PlansusingtheseExchangeratesJun.2024Mar.2024Dec.2023approacheswillseetheeffectofinvestmentreturnexperiencespreadoveraperiodofyears.(currencyperUS$1)Brazil5.591.375.011.350.93151.30.900.794.851.32CurrencyeffectsCanadaEurozoneJapanTheresultspresentedinthisdocumentareinlocalcurrency.Changesinrelativecurrencyvaluesmayhaveasignificantimpactonassetandliabilitymeasurements.Theeffectofcurrencymovementsdependsonthecompany’sreportingcurrencyand0.930.91160.820.90140.990.84SwitzerlandU.K.0.790.79itsglobalallocationofassetsandliabilities.TheaccompanyingtableshowsthevalueofforeigncurrencythatequatestooneU.S.dollaratvariousmeasurementdates.LocalregulatoryrequirementsThisupdatereviewsfinancialresultsforpensionplansbasedonmeasurementsdefinedbyinternationalaccountingstandards.Localaccountingorfundingrequirementsmaybebasedonsignificantlydifferenttypesofassetorliabilitymeasuresinsomelocations.EurozonebenchmarkplanTheresultsshownfortheEurozonearebasedontypicalfundedplansfoundinBelgiumandtheNetherlands.GlobalPensionFinanceWatch:SecondQuarter2024.Copyright?2024WTW.Allrightsreserved.Page11of13DefinitionoftermsBondyields.Governmentbondyieldsarebasedonpublishedinformation.GovernmentbondyieldsfortheEurozonearebasedonGermangovernmentbonds.Duetothelackofmarketablesecurities,Braziliangovernmentbondyieldsarerealrates,exceptforthethree-monthgovernmentbondyield,whichisanominalrate(i.e.,includesinflation)...CorporatebondyieldsreflecttheFTSETMXCorporateBondIndexforCanada,iBoxxEUROCorporatesAA10+fortheEurozone,iBoxx15+AACorporateBondIndexfortheU.K.andML10+High-QualityIndexintheU.S.Benchmarkdiscountratesaredeterminedfortheaverageplanbasedonyieldsavailableonhigh-qualitycorporatebondsasofthedatethatliabilitiesaremeasured.DiscountratesforCanada,theEurozone,Japan,Switzerland,theU.K.andtheU.S.arebasedonourRATE:Linkmethodology.DiscountratesforBrazilareaproxyfortheyieldoncorporatebonds,developedfromtherealyieldon30-yeargovernmentbondswithanadjustmenttoaccountforliquiditycharacteristicsandtheadditionofalong-terminflationassumption.Higherorlowerdiscountratesmightbeappropriateforotherplans.Benchmarkinvestmentreturns.Benchmarkinvestmentreturnsreflectthecombinedeffectofpricechangesandinterestordividendincome.Thiswilltypicallydifferfromthedailyresultspublishedinfinancialjournals,whicharebasedsolelyonpricechanges..Investmentreturnshavebeenbasedoncommonlyquotedlocalbenchmarks,asdetailedbelow:.

ForBrazil,domesticequityreturnsarebasedontheFTSEAll-WorldBrazilindex,anddomesticfixed-incomereturnsontheiBoxxGEMXBrazilindex..

ForCanada,domesticequityreturnsarebasedontheS&P/TSXComposite,internationalequityreturnson10%S&P500(inCanadiandollars),20%S&PTSXComposite(inCanadiandollars),10%MSCIEAFETotalReturnIndexNetDividends(inCanadiandollars)anddomesticfixed-incomereturnson60%FTSETMXLongBondTotalReturn..

FortheEurozone,domesticequityreturnsarebasedontheMSCIEurozonemarketindex,internationalequityreturnsontheMSCIWorldex-EMUtotalreturnindexanddomesticfixed-incomereturnsontheiBoxxEUROverallindex..

ForJapan,domesticequityreturnsarebasedontheFTSEAll-WorldJapanindex,internationalequityreturnsontheMSCIWorld(ex-Japan)Indexwithnetdividendsreinvested,domesticfixed-incomereturnsontheFTSEJapanGovernmentTotalindexandinternationalfixed-incomereturnsontheFTSEGlobalGovernmentBondindex..

ForSwitzerland,portfolioreturnsarebasedonthePictetIndex2005BVG-40+index..

FortheU.K.,domesticequityreturnsarebasedontheFTSEAllShare,internationalequityreturnsontheFTSEAll-Worldex-U.K.anddomesticfixed-incomereturnsontheFTSEOver15YearsGilts..

FortheU.S.,domesticequityreturnsarebasedon80%S&P500Indexand20%Russell2500,internationalequityreturnsontheMSCIEAFEIndex,anddomesticfixed-incomereturnson87.5%BarclaysCapitalAggregateBondIndexand12.5%three-monthT-bills..Benchmarkportfolioreturnshavebeenbasedonatypicaldiversifiedportfolioineachcountrythathasnotyetbeensecuredviaaninsurancepolicy.Benchmarkportfolioreturnsforthisquarterhavebeenbasedonthefollowingassetallocations:.

Brazil:10%domesticequityand90%domesticfixedincome.

Canada:40%equity(20%domestic,20%international)and60%domesticfixedincome.

Eurozone:40%domesticequityand60%domesticfixedincome.

Japan:30%equity(20%domestic,10%international)and70%fixedin