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Globaltradein
greenhydrogenderivatives
Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcerti?cation
MethanoI
NH3
NH3
3
3
Supportingthe
?IRENA2024
Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.
ISBN:978-92-9260-619-0
Citation:IRENA(2024),Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives:Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.
Acknowledgements
ThisreportwasauthoredbyKaranKochhar,DeeptiSiddhanti,JaidevDhavle,ArnovandenBosandJamesWalkerundertheguidanceofFranciscoBoshellandRolandRoesch(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre).ThereportalsobenefitedfromcontributionsfromJeffreyTchouambeandStevenGo(ex-IRENA).
IRENAalsowouldliketoexpresssincereappreciationtothefollowingtechnicalexpertswhoreviewedthereportandprovidedinsightfulfeedback,specificcommentsandconstructivesuggestions:FlorianAusfelder(Dechema),RutaBaltause(EuropeanCommission),TrevorBrown(AmmoniaEnergyAssociation),HarrietCulver(UKgovernment),KatherineDavis(UKgovernment),GregDolan(MethanolAssociation),SmeetaFokeer(UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization),WillHall(InternationalEnergyAgency),MarcMelaina(USgovernment),GarethMottram(UKgovernment),MarcMoutinho(MissionPossiblePartnership),DorotheaNold(HIFGlobal),FabioPassaro(ClimateBondsInitiative),AndrewPurvis(WorldSteelAssociation),MariaSandqvist(InternationalOrganizationforStandardization),SunitaSatyapal(USgovernment),FionaSkinner(UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization),JanStelter(NOW),AndreiTchouvelev(InternationalOrganizationforStandardization)andLachlanWright(RockyMountainInstitute).AdditionalinsightswereprovidedindiscussionswithTudorFlorea(Frenchgovernment),AlexandraUllmann(Ludwig-B?lkow-Systemtechnik)andOscarPearce(AmmoniaEnergyAssociation).
ThereportbenefitedfromreviewsbyseveralIRENAstaff:EmanueleBianco,Ann-KathrinLipponer,LuisJaneiroandPaulKomor.
PublicationsandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke.ThereportwaseditedbyEmilyYouerswithdesignbyStrategicAgenda.
ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizonEuropeprogrammeundergrantagreement101075095andavoluntarycontributionfromtheGovernmentofNorway.ThisreportalsoservesasaninputundertheBreakthroughAgenda’sHydrogenBreakthroughpriorityactiononcertificationandstandards.
AboutIRENA
TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture,andservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.
Disclaimer
Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.
TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.
三H2
Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification
Contents
A
bbreviations 5
Executivesummary 6
1.Introductionandscopeofthisreport 8
2.Regulationslandscapeforhydrogenanditsderivatives 14
3.Accounting,StandardsandCertifications:TheFundamentals 25
4.Surveyingthelandscapeofaccountingstandardsandmethodologies,
andcertificationsschemes 3
1
5.Summary,conclusions,andrecommendationsforenhancingmarket
developmentandtradeofcommodities 5
0
References
58
Figures
Figure1Overviewofthehydrogenandderivativesvaluechains 13
Figure2Emissionsintensitylevelsunderwell-to-wheel(top)andwell-to-gate,
(bottom)underH2regulationsinselectedregionsandcountries 1
5
Figure3Globalsupply-costcurveofgreenhydrogenfortheyear2050
underoptimisticassumptions 2
1
Figure4Flowofinformationtocomplywithregulationsforimportinghydrogen
anditsderivatesintotheEuropeanUnion 2
4
Figure5Definitionsandkeyelementsforstandardsandcertificationschemes 2
5
Figure6Typicalsystemboundariesforhydrogenandderivativessupplychains 29
Figure7Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforhydrogen 31
Figure8Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforammonia 39
Figure9Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesformethanol 42
Figure10Standardsandcertificationsforthechemicalssector 46
Figure11Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforironandsteel 51
Figure12Summarydepictingthehydrogenandderivativevaluechains,
overlayedwiththeemissionsmonitoringscopesrequiredunderthe
regulatoryframeworksdiscussedinthisreport 5
5
3
Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives
Tables
Table1OverviewoftheDelegatedActsonRFNBOs 17
Table2Overviewofdefinitionsofrenewableandlowemissionshydrogen
anditsderivativesinselectedmarkets
20
Table3Obligationsforimportersofhydrogenanditsderivatesfrom
CBAMinthetransitionalperiod 2
2
Table4Summarystandardsandmethodologiesforlow-emissionshydrogen 3
6
Table5Summaryofcertificationschemesforlowemissionshydrogen 3
7
Table6SummaryofstandardsandmethodologiesforAmmonia 4
0
Table7OverviewofcertificatesusedforAmmonia 4
1
Table8Summaryofstandardsandmethodologiesformethanol 43
Table9Summaryofcertificationschemesformethanol 43
Table10Summaryofstandardsandmethodologiesforironandsteel 4
7
Table11Summaryofcertificationschemesforironandsteel
49
Table12Mainsustainabilityrequirementsforleading
hydrogen-consumingjurisdictions 5
3
Boxes
Box1Terminology
8
Box2CarbonsourcingrequirementsintheEuropeanUnion 1
8
Box3ISO/TS19870:2023–Hydrogentechnologies—Methodologyfor
determiningthegreenhousegasemissionsassociatedwiththeproduction,
conditioningandtransportofhydrogentoconsumptiongate 3
2
Box4Regulationandcertificationofemissionsinthechemicalsector 4
4
Box5Provisionsforthederivativesectorsinregulation 5
2
4
三H2
Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification
Abbreviations
AEAAmmoniaEnergyAssociationIRS(UnitedStates)InternalRevenueService
InternationalSustainabilityandCarbonCertification
AmericanIronandSteelInstitute
ISCC
AISI
ANABAmericanNationalAccreditationBoardISOInternationalStandardsOrganization
CBAMCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismkgKilogramme
CCEE(Brazil)ElectricEnergyTradingChamberkgCO?eqKilogrammeofcarbondioxideequivalent
CH?OHMethanolkgH?Kilogrammeofhydrogen
Certificationsystemofthe(Polish)InstytutNaftyiGazu
Carbondioxide
KZRINiG
CO?
COPConferenceofthePartiesMJMegajoule
DeutscherKraftfahrzeug-überwachungs-Verein
DEKRA
MtMegatonne
DNVDetNorskeVeritasNH?Ammonia
DRIDirectreducedironREDRenewableEnergyDirective
Renewablefuelofnon-biologicalorigin
ETS
Emissionstradingscheme
RMI
RockyMountainInstitute
EU
EuropeanUnion
RSB
RoundtableonSustainableBiomaterials
EUR
Euro(currency)
RTFO
(UnitedKingdom)RenewableTransportFuelObligation
G7
GroupofSeven
SAF
Sustainableaviationfuels
GHG
Greenhousegas
SBTi
ScienceBasedTargetsInitiative
GREET
GreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTransportationmodel
TfSPCF
TogetherforSustainabilityProductCarbonFootprints
GSCC
GlobalSteelClimateCouncil
UK
UnitedKingdom
IAS
InternationalAccreditationService
UKAS
UnitedKingdomAccreditationService
IEA
InternationalEnergyAgency
US
UnitedStatesofAmerica
IMPCA
InternationalMethanolProducersandConsumersAssociation
USD
UnitedStatesdollar
IPHE
InternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy
WEF
WorldEconomicForum
IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyWTOWorldTradeOrganization
eINaElektronischerNachhaltigkeitsnachweisRFNBO
5
Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives
Executivesummary
Tradeinhydrogenisanemergingenergytransitionpriority–andapotentialeconomicopportunity–forcountriesaroundtheworld.WorkingjointlywiththeRockyMountainInstitute,IRENApreviouslypublishedastocktakereportthatanalysedtheroleofcertificationschemesandregulatoryframeworksindrivingtheanticipatedglobalmarketsforgreenhydrogen(IRENA,2023a).Theseglobalmarketsareexpectedtoemergeasaresultofthecompetitiveadvantageinrenewableresourcesaswellasinlandandwateravailabilitythatmaypermitgreenhydrogentobeproducedatlowercostinsomeregionsthaninothers.Certificationschemescanbeusedtoprovidetheconfidencerequiredbyconsumersandregulatorsthatanyhydrogenbeingtradedinternationallysatisfiessustainabilityrequirements.Suchconfidenceisessentialinde-riskinginternationalmarkets.
Analysisisincreasinglyshowingthatderivativecommoditiesproducedusinggreenhydrogen,suchaslow-emissionammonia,low-emissionmethanol,andironandsteel,willplayasignificantroleintheglobaltradeflowsassociatedwithhydrogen.Movinggaseousgreenhydrogenitselfoverlongdistancesmaybetechnicallychallengingduetoitslowvolumetricenergydensity;itsderivativesmaythereforebeeasiertoshipintercontinentally.Asaresult,certificationschemesmaybeincreasinglyrequiredtoguaranteetheattributesofthederivatives.Regulatoryframeworksmayevolvetosetrequirementsforacceptablelevelsofgreenhousegasemissionintensityassociatedwiththeproductionof“green”orlow-emissionammoniaormethanol.ThisreportisintendedtoextendIRENA’spriorstocktakeofglobalgreenhydrogencertificationsandregulationstoderivativecommoditiesandtoprovideinsightintotheinteractionsandlinksbetweentheschemesandframeworksdevelopedforgreenhydrogenandthosedevelopedforitsderivatives.
Thisreportsummarisesthestatusofregulatoryframeworkdevelopmentinmanyofthefirst-movermarkets.Regulatorsinthesemarketsareestablishingrulesandexpectationsforwhatcanbeconsideredlow-emissionhydrogen,ammonia,methanolorsteel.Someoftheseframeworksaredesignedtosetrulesandmarketconditionsprimarilyfordomesticproduction,whileotherssetrulesforwhattypesofcommoditiescanbeimported.Severalcountriesandregionshavedevelopedregulationsforhydrogenwithsimilaremissionaccountingmethodologies.However,theallowableemissionthresholdsdifferamongtheseregulations,meaningthatproducersmayneedtoadheretomultipleanddifferingrequirementswhenconsideringexport.Whilethedevelopmentofregulationsisquicklyprogressingforhydrogen,IRENAanalysissuggeststhatprogressindevelopingregulationsforitsderivativeslagssubstantially.Giventhesignificantroleforeseenforthesederivativesininternationaltrade,thiscomparativelackofregulationscouldbeabarriertointernationalmarketdevelopment,andpolicymakersshouldconsiderthetreatmentofderivativeswhendevelopingtheirpolicyframeworks.
TheEuropeanUnion(EU)hasbeenamongthejurisdictionsquickesttodevelopdetailedsustainabilityrequirementsforgreenhydrogenanditsderivatives.EUrulesrequiredemonstrationthatthevolumesofsuchcommoditiesproducedorimportedreflectatleasta70%emissionsavingrelativetofossil-derivedbenchmarks,andproducersmustdemonstratethattherenewablepowerusedforhydrogenproductionisnew(notdivertedfromotheruses)andcanbecorrelatedintimeandlocationtotheproductionplant,toconfirmthatthepowerwasgeneratedspecificallyforhydrogenproduction.TheserequirementsapplytoproducerswithintheEUandtoproducersinothercountriesseekingtoexporttotheEU.Theserulesalsoextendtothederivativesofgreenhydrogen,iftheyarebeingusedasfuels.
6
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Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification
Certificationschemeownersarealsoincorporatingthedatacollection,analysisandaccountingmethodologiesthatwillneedtobefollowedtoprovidetheevidencerequiredforcertification.Thisreportincludestabulatedsummariesoftheschemesindevelopmentacrossthehydrogen,ammonia,methanol,andironandsteelsectors.Insummarisingandcomparingtheseschemes,IRENAhasfoundsignificantheterogeneitiesintheemissionmeasurementboundariesandexpectedemissionthresholdsspecifiedforcertification.Fundamentallydifferentapproachesarealsobeingtakeninthesectorsconsidered.Whiletherearegoodreasonsforthesedifferences,notleastthattheshapeofthemarketsforthevariouscommoditiesisverydifferent,thisheterogeneityislikelytobechallengingforproducers,introducingadministrativecomplexity–especiallyiftheyareseekingtosupplymultiplemarketsconcurrently.
Thisreportproposesrecommendationsforhowregulatoryframeworksandcertificationschemesforgreenhydrogenanditsderivativescanbemadeinteroperable.Internationalcollaborationandtransparencyareofcoursekeyinthis.Anotherkeyrecommendationisforpolicymakersfromdifferentjurisdictionstoalignthemethodologiesacceptedforcalculatingtheemissionintensityofgreenhydrogenanditsderivatives.Thereportalsoacknowledgestheutilityofpre-certificationactivitiesandothercapacity-buildinginitiativestosupportproducersinunderstandingtheregulatoryrequirementsagainstwhichtheymustreport.
Summaryofrecommendations
1.Regulatorsshouldconsidertheimpactoftheframeworkstheyaredevelopingonthederivativecommoditymarketsandshouldaimtoensurethattheframework’srequirementsarerobusttothecharacteristicsanduniqueneedsofthosemarkets.Thisshouldincludeconsiderationofcarbon-sourcingrequirementsforlow-emissionmethanol.
2.Interoperabilityshouldbethegoalofinternationaleffortstoalignregulatoryrequirementsorachievemutualrecognitionofcertificationschemes.Thisinteroperabilityshouldideallyextendtohydrogenanditsderivatives.
3.Tominimisethechallengesforpotentialexportersinnavigatingregulatoryandcertificationschemes,schemeownersanddevelopersareencouragedtoworkdirectlywithproducers,forexamplethroughpre-certificationactivities,toincreaseproducerunderstandingofwhatisrequiredofthem.
4.Transparencyandspecificityofrequirementsareessentialindrivinggoodoutcomesviacertification.Schemeownersanddevelopersareencouragedtoprovideclearanddetailedguidanceonacceptedmethodologies(andunderpinningrequirements).
5.Wherealignmentofrequirementsisnotpossible,thefocusonengagementviainternationalforashouldbeonworkingtowardsinteroperabilityofschemes.
6.Theremaybearoleforagreementstodevelopcommonstandardsinthehydrogen,ammoniaandmethanolsectors,aswasachievedintheironandsteelsectorbytheSteelStandardsPrinciples.
7
Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives
1.Introductionandscope
Demandforgreenhydrogenanditsderivativesissettogrowexponentially,drivenbyclimatepoliciesandassociatedindustrystrategies.Policymakersandend-usesectoroperatorswantreasonablelevelsofassurancethatthehydrogenand/orderivativestheysupportandusearelowemission.Thepurposeofthisreportistoevaluatethestatusofemergingregulatoryframeworks,internationalstandardsandcertificationschemesforhydrogenandhydrogen-derivedcommodities.ThisreportbuildsonpriorworkundertakenjointlybyIRENAandtheRockyMountainInstitute,whichgaveanoverviewofemergingframeworksforthedevelopmentofglobalgreenhydrogenmarkets(IRENA,2023a).Thisreportupdatesthatoverviewandwidensthescopetoalsoconsiderthehydrogen-derivedcommoditysectors.Regulation,standardisationandcertificationarekeypillarsinbuildingconfidenceinthemarketsforgreenhydrogenandlow-emissionderivatives.Thisreportalsoincludesrecommendationsforhowtheseframeworksandschemescanbealignedormadeinteroperabletosupportthegrowthofglobalmarkets.
Arrivingatcommondefinitionsandasharedunderstandingofterminologyisfundamentalwhenaligninginternationalframeworksinsuchmarkets.However,theterms“greenhydrogen”and“l(fā)ow-emissionderivative”themselvesrequiredefinitionduetothetechnicalspecificitywithwhichtheyareintended.Box1setsouttheterminologyadoptedinthisreport.
Box1Terminology
Theplethoraofcoloursusedtodescribehydrogenproducedundervariouscircumstanceshasbeenwelldiscussed.Whilethis“hydrogenrainbow”providesengineersandcommentatorswiththetechnicalshorthandtoenablediscussion,itcanalsocauseconfusion.Addressingthisconfusionisoneofthemainprioritiesforstandardisation,andmanyregulatoryframeworksforhydrogenhavebeenbasedonnationalorregionaldefinitionsof“l(fā)ow-emission”hydrogen.Thisreportconcernsthefullhydrogenvaluechain,aswellastheroleforhydrogenasaninputandfeedstockinderivativecommodityvaluechains.“Greenhydrogen”referstohydrogenproducedviarenewablypoweredelectrolysis,anelectrochemicalprocessinwhichwatermoleculesaresplittogeneratehydrogen.Greenhydrogenisreferredtothroughoutthisreportduetoitsfocusontherenewableenergysectors.Somesectionsofthereportrefermoregenerallyto“hydrogen”,meaningalltypesofhydrogen,whensettingoutrelevantcontextorwhenencompassingthebroaderhydrogensector.Theterm“l(fā)ow-emissionhydrogen”isusedwhendescribingregulatoryframeworksorstandardsthatincludehydrogenproducedfromfossilsourcesalongsidetheuseofabatementtechnologies,suchascarboncaptureandstorage.Whendiscussinggreenhydrogenasafeedstockandinputintheammonia,methanol,andironandsteelvaluechains,theterm“l(fā)owemission”isusedfortheproductcommodities.Carbonplaysaroleinthesevaluechains,especiallyinmethanolproduction,sothisterminologyispreferredinplaceofdiscussingthe“decarbonisation”ofthesecommodities.Furtherterminologyandtechnicalconceptsrelevanttospecificregulatoryframeworks,standardisationmeasuresandcertificationschemesarediscussedanddefinedintherelevantsectionsthroughoutthereport.
8
三H2
Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification
Thisintroductorychapterofthereportprovidesanoverviewofthemarketsandtypicalsupplychainsofthecommoditiesdiscussed,providingcontextonthesizeofthecurrentandpotentialglobalmarketsandthemostrelevantsustainabilitychallengesfacedbyactorsalongthesesupplychains.Chapter2focusesontheregulatoryframeworksbeingdeveloped,includinginregionsthatareleadingintermsofambitiousdemand-sidetargetsfortheuseofthecommoditiesconsidered,andpresentstheassociatedminimumsustainabilityrequirementsregulatorsaresetting.Chapter3discussesfundamentalconceptsinthecontextofstandardisationandcertification,describingthemechanismsthatcanormustbeusedbymarketparticipantstodemonstratethesustainabilitycharacteristicsoftheirproducts(e.g.emissionaccountingstandardsandcertificationschemes).Chapter4describesthemainexistingemissionaccountingstandardsandcertificationschemes(bothvoluntaryandobligatory)foreachcommodity,aswellasforthechemicalsmanufacturedfromthefeedstocksdiscussed.Thechapterconcludeswithanoverviewofthemainchallengesandopportunitiesforindustryplayersinadoptingtheschemesandforthecertificationecosysteminadaptingtoemergingsustainabilityrequirements.Chapter5providesrecommendationsonhowstandardsandcertificationschemesforhydrogenanditsderivatescanbeharmonisedandconsolidatedasmarketscontinuetodevelop.
Hydrogenasaflexibleenergyvectorandfeedstockforemissionreductionsinend-usesectors
Tobecompliantwiththe2015ParisAgreement,IRENA’sWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023:1.5°CPathwayclearlyidentifiesthattwo-thirdsoftherequiredcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionreductionsinanet-zeroscenariocanbeachievedthroughanincreasedsupplyofrenewableenergy,theelectrificationofvariousenergyservicescurrentlyreliantonfossilfuelsandtheimprovementofenergyefficiency.Inpursuitofthisambition,IRENAWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlookanalysissuggeststhatgreenhydrogen–hydrogenproducedusingelectrolysis,poweredfromrenewablesources–willbeakeyenablerforthedecarbonisationofendusesandflexibilityofthepowersystem.IRENA’s1.5°Cscenarioprojectsthattheglobalfinalenergyconsumptionwoulddecreaseby6%between2020and2050duetotheavenuesassociatedwiththenet-zeroCO2reductions(IRENA,2023b).
IRENAanalysisshowsthatmostendusesofenergycanbeelectrified.However,in“hard-to-abate”sectors,othertoolswillberequiredtoreduceemissions.Someprocessesandendusesrequiretheinputofachemicalfuelorfeedstock.Thisistrueofhydrogenasachemicalbuildingblockforammoniaandmethanolproductionorofhydrogenasachemicalagent,likeitsroleinprimarysteelproduction(asdescribedlaterinthischapter).Hence,tangiblesolutionsareneededthatcanclosethedecarbonisationgapinapplicationswheredirectuseofrenewableelectricityisnottechnicallyviableorcost-effective.Inthiscontext,greenhydrogencanfacilitatetheuseofrenewableenergyinhard-to-abatesectors(WTOandIRENA,2023).IRENA’s1.5°Cscenarioestimatesthatgreenhydrogen,alongwithhydrogen-derivedcommodities(ammonia,methanol,andironandsteel),havethepotentialtoaddressareasonablefraction(14%)oftheglobalfinalenergydemandin2050(IRENA,2023b).
Thecurrenthydrogenproductionlandscapeisstillfossilfuelbased,withcapacitiesreachingapproximately0.1gigatonnes(Gt)ofhydrogenperyear.Thisfossil-derivedhydrogenislargelyusedasfeedstockmaterialforindustriessuchasoilrefining,fertiliserproductionaswellasindownstreamchemicalprocesses.Hydrogenproductioniscurrentlyresponsiblefortheemissionof1100-1300megatonnes(Mt)ofCO2globallyperyear,meaningthathydrogenproductioniscurrentlyamajornetcontributortoclimatechange(IEAetal.,2023).
Toreducetheemissionsfromcurrenthydrogenproduction,amassiveexpansioninrenewablepowerintegrationisrequired,intandemwithanunprecedentedscale-upanddeploymentofelectrolysercapacity.IRENAanalysissuggeststhattheglobalgreenhydrogensectorwillneedtogrowfromanegligibleinstalledbasetodaytomorethan
9
Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives
5700gigawattsofelectrolyticproductioncapacityby2050(IRENA,2023b).Amajorhurdlethathaspreventedtherapiddeploymentofgreenhydrogenhasbeenhigherproductioncoststhanitsdominantfossilfuelcounterparts.Thisnarrativecanbealteredthroughtwocrucialvectors:thecostofrenewableelectricityandthecostofelectrolysers.Inrelationtothefirstofthesevectors,IRENA’slatestanalysisrevealsthatthecostofrenewablepowergenerationisfallingveryquickly.Mostnotably,from2010to2022,thecostofsolarphotovoltaicandofonshoreandoffshorewindpowerhasdroppedbyalmost90%,69%and59%,respectively.Today,solarandwindarethecheapestformsofnewpowergenerationinmanyregionsoftheworld,andcostshavethepotentialtocontinuetodeclineasthesetechnologiesmature(IRENA,2023c).Inrelationtothesecondofthevectors,IRENA’sanalysissuggeststhat,ifelectrolysertechnologydeploymentvolumesweretoreachthoseinthe1.5°Cscenario,thespillovereffectsfrom“l(fā)earningbydoing”andeconomiesofscalewouldtriggersubstantialcostreductionsfore
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