2024企業(yè)使用AI追蹤報(bào)告

TrackingFirmUseofAIinRealTime:ASnapshotfromtheBusinessTrendsandOutlookSurvey

by

KathrynBonney

U.S.CensusBureau

CoryBreaux

U.S.CensusBureau

CatherineBuffington

U.S.CensusBureau

EminDinlersoz

U.S.CensusBureau

LuciaFoster

U.S.CensusBureau

NathanGoldschlag

U.S.CensusBureau

JohnHaltiwanger

UniversityofMaryland

ZacharyKroff

U.S.CensusBureau

KeithSavage

U.S.CensusBureau

CES24-16March2024

TheresearchprogramoftheCenterforEconomicStudies(CES)producesawiderangeofeconomicanalysestoimprovethestatisticalprogramsoftheU.S.CensusBureau.ManyoftheseanalysestaketheformofCESresearchpapers.ThepapershavenotundergonethereviewaccordedCensusBureaupublicationsandnoendorsementshouldbeinferred.Anyopinionsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotrepresenttheviewsoftheU.S.CensusBureau.Allresultshavebeenreviewedtoensurethatnoconfidentialinformationisdisclosed.Republicationinwholeorpartmustbeclearedwiththeauthors.

Toobtaininformationabouttheseries,see/cesorcontactSeanWang,Editor,DiscussionPapers,U.S.CensusBureau,CenterforEconomicStudies,4600SilverHillRoad,Washington,DC20233,

CES.Working.Papers@.

Tosubscribetotheseries,pleaseclick

here.

Abstract

TimelyandaccuratemeasurementofAIusebyfirmsisbothchallengingandcrucialforunderstandingtheimpactsofAIontheU.S.economy.Weprovidenew,real-timeestimatesofcurrentandexpectedfutureuseofAIforbusinesspurposesbasedontheBusinessTrendsandOutlookSurveyforSeptember2023toFebruary2024.Duringthisperiod,bi-weeklyestimatesofAIuseraterosefrom3.7%to5.4%,withanexpectedrateofabout6.6%byearlyFall2024.ThefractionofworkersatbusinessesthatuseAIishigher,especiallyforlargebusinessesandintheInformationsector.AIuseishigherinlargefirmsbuttherelationshipbetweenAIuseandfirmsizeisnon-monotonic.Incontrast,AIuseishigherinyoungfirmsalthough,onanemployment-weightedbasis,isU-shapedinfirmage.CommonusesofAIincludemarketingautomation,virtualagents,anddata/textanalytics.AIusersoftenutilizeAItosubstituteforworkertasksandequipment/software,butfewreportreductionsinemploymentduetoAIuse.ManyfirmsundergoorganizationalchangestoaccommodateAI,particularlybytrainingstaff,developingnewworkflows,andpurchasingcloudservices/storage.AIusersalsoexhibitbetteroverallperformanceandhigherincidenceofemploymentexpansioncomparedtootherbusinesses.Themostcommonreasonfornon-adoptionistheinapplicabilityofAItothebusiness.

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*Anyopinionsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotrepresenttheviewsofthe

U.S.CensusBureau.TheCensusBureauhasreviewedthisdataproducttoensureappropriateaccess,use,and

disclosureavoidanceprotectionoftheconfidentialsourcedata(ProjectNo.P-7529868,DisclosureReviewBoard(DRB)approvalnumbers:CBDRB-FY23-0478,CBDRB-FY24-0162,andCBDRB-FY24-0225).WethankJoeStaudtandJohnEltingeforhelpfulcomments.JohnHaltiwangerwasalsoaScheduleAemployeeoftheBureauoftheCensusatthetimeofthewritingofthispaper.

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1.Introduction

WhateffectsArtificialIntelligence(AI)willhaveontheU.S.economyisacrucialquestion.SomeexpectAItobetransformative,especiallygivenrecentbreakthroughsinGenerativeAI,

leadingtoasustainedperiodofhighproductivitygrowth(Baily,Brynjolfsson,Korinek(2023))whileothersarelessoptimisticaboutitsimpact(Gordon(2024)).AIdevelopmentandusehasbeenongoingforseveralyearsandinvestigatingtheimpactofAIontheeconomyisanactiveareaofresearch.However,realtime,comprehensivedataonAIusebybusinesseshasbeen

limited.ThemostrecentcomprehensivestudiesofAIuse,whichrelyonAnnualBusiness

Survey(ABS)data,reportuseduringthe2016-18period(Acemogluetal.(2023,2022)andasubset,2017,inMcElheranetal.(2024)andZolasetal.(2020)),priortotherapidrecent

developmentsofGenerativeAI.1

TrackingAIusebyfirmsinatimelyfashionhasbecomeevenmorepressinggiventherecentadvancesinGenerativeAI.SomeevidencesuggestsrapidadoptionandusageofGenerativeAI.PressreportsdocumentthatChatGPThadmorethan1millionuserswithin5daysofitsreleaseand100millionuserswithinweeksofitsrelease(NYT,December12,2023).Recentreports

suggestChatGPThasabout180.5millionusersasofMarch2024.2However,itremainsunclearhowmanybusinessesarecurrentlyusingAI.WefillthisgapbyusingtherealtimeBusiness

TrendsandOutlookSurvey(BTOS).

TheBTOSisanexperimentaldataproductintendedtocapturehigh-frequencychangesin

economicconditionsthroughaqualitativesurveyrepresentativeofU.S.employerbusinesses.3TheBTOScollectionstartinginSeptember2023,coveringbothsingleandmultiplelocation

businesses,includedtwonewquestionsabouttheuseofAIintheproductionofgoodsand

services.These“core”AIquestionsareaskedinreferencetotwotimeperiods:current(previous

1TheresearchusingtheABShasitsownadvantagessinceitintegratestheABSwiththeLongitudinalBusiness

Database(LBD)trackingfirmdynamicsandfirm-levelproductivitydata.OurcontributionisrealtimeinformationonAIusethatisconcurrentwiththerapidadvancesinGenerativeAI.TheLBDiscurrentlyonlytrackingfirm

dynamicsthrough2021.WhenthenewvintagesofLBDbecomeavailable,wewillalsobeabletocombinethemwithBTOStoanalyzetheconnectionbetweenAIuseandfirmdynamics.

2See

/blog/chatgpt-users#how-many

.

3SeeBuffingtonetal.(2023)foradescriptionofthefirstsurveyyearoftheBTOSwhichcoveredonlysingle

locationbusinesses.ThispaperfocusessolelyonthesecondsurveyyearoftheBTOSwhichcoverssingleand

multi-locationbusinesses.Surveyedbusinessesarealsoaskedaboutchangesemployment,inputprices,andoutputprices(seeAppendixAforthecoreBTOSquestions).Wetakeadvantageofthisinformationinouranalysis.

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twoweeks)andsixmonthsinthefuture.SupplementalcontentwasaddedtotheBTOSfrom

December2023toFebruary2024toprovidemoredetailedinformationaboutbusinesses’useofAI.Thereare13questionsinthesupplementinadditiontothetwocoreAIquestions(see

AppendixBfortheAIsupplement).Thesequestionsaskabouttwotimeframes:thelastsix

monthsandsixmonthsintothefuture.ThesupplementquestionsaskbusinessesaboutthetypeofAIusedandapplicationstobusinessfunctions,theimpactofAIuseonworkertasksand

existingequipment,employmenteffectsofAI,andotherchangestotheproductionprocess.AfinalquestionforthosebusinesseswhorespondedthattheydonotintendtouseAIinthenextsixmonthsconcernsimpedimentstofutureuseofAI.ThedatacollectionfortheAI

supplementalcontentstoppedinFebruary2024,howeverthetwocoreAIquestionsremain.

TheBTOSsampleconsistsofapproximately1.2millionemployerbusinessesoveragiven

12-weekperiod.Thus,eachbi-weeklycollectiongoestoasampleofabout200,000businesses.TheaveragebiweeklyresponserateovertheperiodofcollectionforAI-relatedcoreand

supplementcontentisabout16%,resultinginasampleofabout164,500businessesforourmainanalysissampleutilizingthesupplement.FollowingstandardCensusBureauprocedures,the

sampleisweightedsothatestimatesarerepresentativeatthenational,state,sectorandfirmsizelevel.WeexploitthisnoveldatatoprovidearealtimeassessmentofAIusebyU.S.businesses.4

WefindthatthefractionoffirmsusingAIisrelativelylowbutrising:fromabout3.7%atthestartofthecollectioninSeptember2023toabout5.4%attheendofFebruary2024.AIuseis

expectedtorisefurthertoabout6.6%byFall2024.Thereisenormousvariationincurrentusebysectorfromalowof1.4%inConstructionandAgriculturetoahighof18.1%inInformation.

4Dinlersoz,Dogan,andZolas(2024)useadistinctapproachtoobtaintimelyinformationonthediffusionofAIbyusinghigh-frequencyadministrativedatafromCensusBureau’sBusinessFormationStatistics(BFS).Usingthe

write-ininformationontheapplications,theyfindthattherehasbeenasurgeinnewAI-relatedbusiness

applicationsandformationsinrecentyears.Relatedly,usingtheBFSindustry-leveldataDeckerandHaltiwanger

(2024)findthathigh-techsectors(e.g.,InformationandProfessional,ScientificandTechnical)whereAIbusinessesareclassifiedhaveplayedamajorroleinthesurgeinnewbusinessformationfrom2021-23.However,theBFS

doesnotprovideestimatesofAIuseratesforthegeneralpopulationoffirms.TherearealsoeffortstoreportonAIuseonatimelybasisfromunrepresentativesamples(McKinsey(2023)orindirectmeasuressuchasonlineresumesandjobpostings(forexample,Babinaetal.(2024))orpatentingbehavior(forexample,Miricetal.2023)).Alloftheseapproacheshaveyieldedvaluableinsights,buttheBTOShastheadvantageofbeingalarge,nationally

representativesurveyofU.S.businessesdirectlyaskingaboutAIuseforbusinesspurposes.

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Futureexpecteduseexhibitssimilarvariationwithalowof1.5%inAgricultureand21.5%inInformation.

Firm-leveluseratesmaskthefactthatalargerfractionofworkersareemployedat

businessesthatareusingAI.Thisfindingreflectsthatlargerbusinessesaremorelikelytouse

AI.Forexample,amongfirmswithatleast250employees,about7%offirmsandabout9%ofworkersareinfirmsthatuseAI.Thisgapbetweenfirmandemployment-weighteduseratesalsovariesbysector—about1.9%ofworkersinConstructionandabout22.3%ofemployeesinthe

InformationsectorareatfirmsusingAI.Forthesesamesectors,expectedfutureratesbyFall2024onanemployment-weightedbasisare3.2%and25.2%respectively.

WhilethereisanoverallpositiverelationshipbetweenAIuseandfirmsize,therelationshipisU-shaped.Thesmallestfirms(1–4employees)havehigherAIusethanfirmsinthe5–99

employeerange.Firmswith250ormoreemployeeshavethehighestfractionofAIuse.

Relatedlybutdistinctly,wefindAIusedeclineswithfirmage.However,onanemployment-

weightedbasis,thereisaU-shapedrelationshipbetweenAIuseandfirmage.Thatis,youngestandoldestgroupsoffirmshavingthemostemployeesexposedtoAIuse.

Lookingdeeper,weseethatbusinessesthatuseAItypicallyutilizeitformarketing

automation,virtualagentsandchatbots,naturallanguageprocessinganddata/textanalytics.Onanemployment-weightedbasis,theprimaryfocusshiftstodataanalytics.Inallcases,AIusingfirmshaveclearerperspectivesonspecificbusinessapplicationsinthefuturecomparedtothe

currentuse.AsubstantialfractionofAIusersindicatethattheyuseittosubstituteforworker

tasksandforequipment/softwareoperations.However,relativelyfewAIusersindicatethey

reduceemploymentduetoAIuse.ManyAIusersimplementorganizationalchanges—includingahighpropensitytotrainexistingstafftouseAI.ForthosebusinessesthatdonotintendtouseAIinthenearfuture,themostcitedreasonisthatAIisnotapplicablefortheirbusiness.

TherearemanychallengesinmeasuringAIbusinessusethatneedtoberecognizedin

interpretingourfindings.FirmsmayuseAIinincidentallyorinsignificantways,andnotreportsuchuse,asAImaynotbeapartoftheircoreprocessesorproducts.OthersmayrelyonAI

embeddedinsystemsorservicesprovidedbythirdparties;inwhichcasetheyareunknowing

usersofAI.TheestimatesproducedfrombusinessresponsestotheBTOSmaynotincludetheseincidentaland/orembeddedusesofAI.Still,wethinkthattheBTOSstatisticsarehighly

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relevantastheyarguablyreflectmoredirectandsignificantuseofAIforbusinesspurposes.

GiventheexplosionofinterestaboutGenerativeAItransformingtheeconomy,thetrackingofsuchsignificantuseisimportant.

Interestingly,thepatternswehavedetectedfromSeptember2023toFebruary2024are

broadlyconsistentwiththeresultsfromthetwocomplementarycollectionsoftheABScoveringtheperiod2016–2018(seeAcemogluetal.(2023,2022)and2017inMcElheranetal.(2024)

andZolasetal.(2020)).5AIuseratesarerelativelylowoverthisperiodbuthigheronan

employment-weightedbasis.TheyaremuchhigherinsectorssuchastheInformationsector.

Whilemoreanalysisisneeded,therapiddevelopmentsinGenerativeAIhavenotyetledtoanexplosionofAIuseamongbusinessesbetweenSeptember2023andFebruary2024.Still,wedofindthatAIuseforbusinesspurposesissubstantiallyhigher(whenadjustmentsaremadeforcomparabletabulations)inoursampleperiodcomparedtotheABSsampleperiodspre-2019.

Therestofthepaperisstructuredasfollows.InthenextsectionwedescribethedesignandtestingofAIquestions.Insection3,weprovidedresultsfromthecoreAIquestionsandcomparetheseresultstoadoptionratesfromothersurveys.Insection4,weprovideresultsfromtheAI

Supplement.WebringinotherdatafromtheBTOSinsection5,whereweexaminerelationshipsbetweenAIadoptionandfirmperformance(andcomparethesetoresultsfromABS).Finally,insection6weprovideourconclusionsandadiscussionaboutfutureresearch.

2.DesignandTestingofAIQuestions

Asdenotedbyitsname,theBTOSprovidesalmostreal-timeinformationoncurrenttrends

andfutureoutlookforbusinesses.BTOSprovidesamorequalitativeviewoftheeconomywithquestionsconcerningchangesandmovementsintermsofimprovingorworseningconditions.

Withitsbiweeklycollectionperiod,thequestionsaskedofrespondentsmustbeanswerableinatimelyfashion.Thedisseminationplatformneedstobeagileenoughtohandlealmostcontinuous

5CautionisrequiredincomparingAIuseratesfromBTOStothosereportedfromtheABSinthe2016-18periodinAcemogluetal.(2023,2022)and2017inMcElheranetal.(2024)andZolasetal.(2020).Inthelatterpapers,AI

usestatisticsarebasedonthefractionofAIusersoverallbusinessesexcludingthosethatanswered“DoNot

Know”.Inthecurrentpaper,weinclude“DoNotKnow”inourbaselinestatistics.WediscusswhyandalsomakecomparisonstoABSstatisticsbyexcluding“DoNotKnow”insection3.cbelow.Whencomparisonsaremadeonan“apples-to-apples”basiswefindsubstantiallyhigherAIuseratesin2023-24fromBTOScomparedtothe2016-

18periodfromABS.

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updatesofresults.Finally,BTOSisdesignedtohandlechangesincontentinarelativelystreamlinedfashionwhilestillstrivingtoadheretoCensusBureauqualitystandards.We

describehowtheBTOSsample,methodology,contentreview,anddisseminationplatformworktomeetthesegoals.

a.SampleandMethodology

TheBTOSsampleofabout1.2millionbusinessesisdrawnannuallyfromtheBusiness

Register.BeginninginSeptember2023,thesamplecoversallnonfarm,privateemployer

businessesandproducesdatarepresentativeatthenational,state,andsectorlevelsinadditiontothe25largestmetropolitanstatisticalareas6;eachrepresentativepanelincludesapproximately

200,000businesses--theaveragebiweeklyresponserateovertheperiodofcollectionforAI-

relatedcontentsofarisabout16%,resultinginabout164,500businessesforourmainanalysissample.TheBTOSrotatesacrossthesesixpanelsovertheyearsothatbusinessesineachpanelareaskedtoreportonceevery12weeksfortheBTOScycle.7Thefirsttimeeachbiweekly

panelisinsample,businessesarecontactedeitherbyemailorletterwithaninvitationtorespondtothesurvey.Startingwiththesecondtimeeachbiweeklypanelisinsample,businessesare

contactedonlybyemailwithaninvitationtorespondtothesurvey.Surveyresponsesand

nonresponse-adjustedsurveyweightsareusedtocreateestimatesofthepercentofbusinessesrespondingtoeachquestionresponse.Theweightsmaketheestimatesrepresentativeatthe

nationallevelandbystate,sectorandsize.UnlikemanyotherCensusBureausurveyslargebusinessesarenotselectedforsamplingwithhigherprobabilitythansmallerbusinesses.

TheBTOSpublishedstatisticsincludeestimatesbygeographyandNAICSsectors,butalsoforanunclassifiedgeographyandNAICSsector.Multiplelocationbusinessesoperatinginmorethanonestate(orMSA)areconsideredunclassifiedforgeographyandarenotincludedinany

state(orMSA)total.Similarly,multiplelocationbusinessesoperatinginmorethanonesector

areconsideredunclassifiedforsectorandarenotincludedinanysectortotal.Theseexclusionsfromdetailedtotalsaredonetopreventdoublecounting.Businessesassignedasunclassified,for

6SeethepublishedBTOSMethodologyforadditionaldetails:

/hfp/btos/methodology

.

7TheBTOSrotatesthesesixpanels(a“cycle”)fourtimesforatotalof48weeksofsurveycoverage.Somepanelswillbesurveyedfivetimesinsteadoffourtocovertheremainingweeksofthesurveyyear.

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geographyand/orsector,areincludedinnationaltotalsincludingbyfirmcharacteristicssuchasfirmageandsize.8

b.CoreContent

Intermsofcontent,businessesareaskedaboutchangesormovementsintermsofactualandanticipatedincreasesordecreasesforconceptsofinterestincludingemployment,inputprices,

andoutputprices(seeAppendixAforthecoreBTOSquestions).Theseareaskedinreferencetotwotimeperiods:currentandsixmonthsinthefuture.Inaparallelfashion,therearetwocoreAIquestionsabouttheuseofAIintheproductionofgoodsandservicesinthecurrenttimeperiod

andsixmonthsinthefuture.Thequestionsask:“BetweenMMMDD–MMMDD,didthis

businessuseArtificialIntelligence(AI)inproducinggoodsorservices?(ExamplesofAI:

machinelearning,naturallanguageprocessing,virtualagents,voicerecognition,etc.)”and

“Duringthenextsixmonths,doyouthinkthisbusinesswillbeusingArtificialIntelligence(AI)inproducinggoodsorservices?(ExamplesofAI:machinelearning,naturallanguageprocessing,virtualagents,voicerecognition,etc.)”.

TheadditionalAIcontent(boththetwocorequestionsaswellasthe13supplementalquestions)weretestedseparatelyinsummer2023.9MostrespondentsunderstoodtheAI

8Thedecisiontocreateunclassifiedgeographyandsectorclassificationsforestimationwasmadeaftercareful

considerationofalternatemethodsaswellasextensivecognitiveinterviewsconductedinthefieldoflarge,complexbusinesses.TheBTOSreliesheavilyonbusinessemailaddressesforsurveyrespondentcontact;theseaddressesarenearlyalwaysreportedatthecompanylevelgiventhesourceofthesedataareotherresponsestoCensusBureau

businesssurveys.Cognitiveinterviewswereusedinparttodetermineifcompanieswouldbewillingtoprovide

establishmentlevelcontactinformationaspartofatwostagesurveyprocess.Companiesreportedthatnotonly

wouldprovidingestablishment-levelcontactemailaddressesbeburdensome(extremelysoforverylarge

businesses),butitwouldalsobesomethingtheywereunwillingtodo.Withoutasourceofestablishment-level

contacts,theBTOSiscurrentlylimitedtosurveyingatthecompanylevel.Thedecisiontouseunclassified

categoriesforestimateswasmadeinordertoincreasetherepresentativenessofthenationalestimatesproducedby

thesurveybyincludingmultiplelocationbusinesseswhilemakingminimalassumptionsabouthowtoallocatethesemultiplelocationbusinessresponsesacrossgeographyandsectors.AsBTOSisanexperimentalproduct,theCensusBureaumayrevisitthechoicetousetheseunclassifiedestimatesinthefuture.

9Withlimitedexceptions,CensusBureausurveyquestionsundergopretestingusingcognitiveinterviewsand/or

unmoderatedteststofulfilltheCensusBureau’sStatisticalQualityStandardA2-3.3.Thestandardstatesdata

collectioninstrumentsandsupportingmaterialsmustbepretestedwithrespondentstoidentifyproblems(e.g.,

problemsrelatedtocontent,order/contexteffects,skipinstructions,formatting,navigation,andedits)andthen

refined,priortoimplementation,basedonthepretestingresults.Typically,tworoundsoftestingareused,thefirst

toidentifyissuesandthesecondtoconfirmthatearlieridentifiedissueshavebeenresolved.Themaintwotopics

evaluatedduringcognitivetestingarecontentqualityandrespondentburden.MostcorecontentfoundinAppendixAwastestedinearly2022priortothelaunchoftheBTOSinJuly2022.Generalfindingsfromthisstudyincludedthatrespondentshadnodifficultyansweringquestionslookingbackintimenorinthefuture,thatsixmonthswasareasonableamountoftimelookingforward,andthatsomerespondentsexpressedhadconcernsaboutseasonalityfor

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questionsandwereableanswerthem.Challengespresentedduringcognitivetestingincluded

whethertherespondentwasknowledgeableaboutthecurrentorplanneduseofAIorthereasonswhythecompanywasnotusingAI.Somerespondentshadaroleinthecompanyfinancialsor

accountingand/orwereunfamiliarwiththetechnicalplansforthecompany.Testingsupported

thatinthesesituationsrespondentswouldselectthecorrectresponseoption“donotknow”.ThemostcommonchallengepresentedduringcognitivetestingsurroundedthedefinitionofandwhatqualifiesasAI.Toassistrespondents,theBTOSincludeshyperlinksoneachAIquestionwithintheonlineinstrumenttothepreviouslytestedABSsurveydefinition.10

Weincludethe“donotknow”casesinouranalysisofAIuseratesgiventhecurrentversusfutureperspectiveofBTOS.ItmaybeforexamplethatafirmisplanningonusingAIinthe

futureforbusinesspurposesbutthereisuncertaintyaboutwhethersomeAIusehascommencedalready.Thatis,aswewillseethereareinterestingtransitionsfrom“donotknow”inthecurrentperiodto“Yes”inthefuture.

c.SupplementContent

AsupplementtotheBTOSwasaddedinDecember2023coveringsixbiweeklyperiods

‘cycle’todivedeeperintoAIusage.Altogether,13additionalquestionswereadded,butsome

areonlyapplicableconditionalonAIuse.ThesupplementfocusedbroadlyonunderstandingthetypesofAItechnologiesandapplicationsusedbybusinesses,task,labor,andcapitalaugmentingversusreplacingroles/effectsofAI,organizationalchangesmadetoaccommodateAI,andthe

reasonsforbusinessesnotadoptingorusingAI.Wenextdescribethesequestions(andprovidetheexactquestionsinAppendixB).

Oneofthechallengesrevealedbycognitivetestingwashavingacommonunderstandingofacutting-edgetechnology(seeMiricetal.(2023)forasimilardiscussion).Thus,thefirst

certainquestionslookingsixmonthsforward(e.g.,insectorsthatexperienceseasonalchangesinhoursor

employment).Studyauthorsalsonotedthatitwasimportanttobeconsistentinframingforwardlookingquestionsdependingonwhethertheconceptbeingmeasuredtakesplaceoverthespanofsixmonthsorisapointestimateforsixmonthsinthefuture.

10“ArtificialIntelligenceiscomputersystemsandsoftwarethatareabletoperformtasksnormallyrequiringhumanintelligence,suchasdecision-making,visualperception,speechrecognition,andlanguageprocessing.

TypesorapplicationsofAIincludemachinelearning,naturallanguageprocessing,virtualagents,predictiveanalytics,machinevision,voicerecognition,decisionmakingsystems,dataanalytics,textanalytics,imageprocessing,etc.”

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supplementalquestionattemptstocastawidenetindeterminingAIusebyproviding17detailedexamplesthatrespondentscancheckinresponsetothequestion“Inthelastsixmonths,what

typesofapplicationsofArtificialIntelligence(AI)didthisbusinessuseinproducinggoodsorservices?”TheexamplesareintendedtocapturethescopeofAIusageandthedifferencesin

terminologyused.Thus,itincludesoverlappingconceptssuchas“deeplearning”and“machinelearning.”Giventherapidlyexpandingtechnology,wealsoinclude“Other”asanoption.

Iftherespondentpicksanyofthese18options,theyarethenaskedfivefollow-upquestions.Manyofthesequestionsfocusontheimpactonworkers:whetherAIisusedtoperformtasks

previouslydonebyemployeesinproducinggoodsandservices,andifso,theintensityofthis

use(numberoftasks:“small,”“moderate,”or“l(fā)arge”)andwhethertheuseofAIhaschanged

thetotalemploymentatthebusiness(increased,decreased,nochange).SinceadoptingAImayalsoimpactcapital/equipment,therespondentsarefurtheraskedwhetherAIhasreplaced

operationsperformedbyexistingequipment/software.Thefinalretrospectivequestionasks

aboutotherchangesneededinorderforthebusinesstouseAI.Thereare7optionsthatfocusonchangesinstaffing,equipment,andprocessesandanoptionfor“Other”and“None.”These

questionsprovideguidanceregardingthecomplementstoAIadoption.

BTOSthenasksthesameseriesofquestionsbutwithaforward-lookingtimeframeof

duringthenextsixmonths.TheAIsupplementendswithaquestionforthoserespondentswhonotedthattheydonotexpecttouseAIinthenextsixmonths.Thequestionisintendedtohelp

usunderstandwhybusinesseshavenotadoptedAI.ItasksforreasonswhythebusinessdoesnotplantouseAIduringthenextsixmonthsandprovides10possiblereasonsandthen“Other.”

Thetenpossiblereasonsincludeconstraintsduetocosts,skilledworkforce,dataavailable,or

laws/regulations;concernsaboutprivacy/securityorbias;issueswithAItechnologynotbeingsufficientlymatureorhavingnotmetexpectation;andeithernotknowingaboutthecapabilitiesofAIorwhetheritisapplicabletothebusiness.

3.AIUseRates

WefirstconsidertheoverallcurrentandfutureuseratesofAIbyfirmsestimatedfromBTOSandcomparetheserateswiththoseestimatedfromotherrecentsurveys.

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a.AIUseRatesintheBTOS

ThefirstcollectionperiodofthecorequestionsinSeptember2023yieldedanAIusagerateof3.7%acrossfirms.Thatis,anestimated3.7%offirmsnation