建議比亞迪發(fā)動高端車市價格戰(zhàn)

TimeforBYDtoLaunchaHigh-EndPriceWar

InsightsonPurchaseDecision–

Price&BYDCompetitiveness(2025)

TengYiResearchInstitute（YicheResearchInstitute）

Authors

LijunZhou

Director/ChiefAnalyst

zhoulijun1@

YingGao

IndustryAnalyst

gaoying1@

BenyaShi

IndustryAnalyst

shibenya@

QiangZhang

VisualDesigner

zhangqiang9@

Desireforprice:buyerpreferenceonbroaddiscountfactorssuchasMSRP,trade-in,loan,insurance,optionalpackages,giveaways,benefits,pointsandgovernmentsubsidies

DuringtheICEVehicleera,inordertoattractandenticepotentialcustomerstomakeapurchase,

OEMsanddealersoftenoffereddiscountstovariousdegreesintheareasoftrade-in,loan,insurance,optionalpackagesandgiveawaysinadditiontoprice.Inrecentyears,carmakersthataccelerated

rolloutofEVsalsoincorporatedownerbenefitsandpointstohelpdrivesalesandincreasecustomerstickiness.Tostimulateconsumption,variouslevelsofgovernmenthavealsointroducedpreferentialpoliciessuchaspurchasetaxreductionorexemption,scrapsubsidiesandtrade-insubsidies;

ThisreportdefinesdesireforpriceasbuyerpreferenceonbroaddiscountfactorsincludingMSRP,trade-in,loan,insurance,optionalpackages,giveaways,benefits,pointsandgovernmentsubsidies;

ThisreportismainlybasedononlineresearchfromTYRI(formerlyYRI)withover50,000datasamplesinthefirstthreequartersof2024,andalsoreferencesTengYiBigDataandTYRI(YRI)offlineresearchdata.

DefinitionofDesireforPrice

MSRP

Trade-inSubsidy

Loan/

Insurance

OptionalPackages/Giveaways

Benefits/Points

Desire

for

Price

Other

ThedesireforpricefromChinesecarbuyersin2024reached66.56%,providingfertilesoilforBYD’sbreakthroughgrowthoverthelastfouryearsthroughmassivepricecuts

Overthepasttwodecadesorso,pricehadalwaysremainedasthetoppurchasefactoramongChinese

carbuyers,withdesireforpriceremainingrelativelyhighin2024at66.56%.Chinesecarmakershadalways

playedthepricewarcardasacorebreakthroughtactictoproactivelychallengeforeigncarmakers’

dominantpositioninChina.Butitwasn’tuntil2021-2024whenBYDlaunchedthreeroundsoflifeordeathpricewarsthatChinesecarmakershadtrulyachievedabreakthrough.BYD’sglobalsalesskyrocketed

frommerely400,000unitsin2020tomorethan4millionunitsin2024,growing10Xandachievinggrowthunseeninthelast100yearsoftheglobalautoindustry.Handinhand,BYDandotherChinesecarmakerslikeGeely,Chery,Chang’anandGreatWallMotorrapidlydisruptedthetraditionallandscapeofChina’scarmarketdominatedbyforeigncarmakers:marketshareofChinesecarmakersnearlydoubledfrom33%in2020to60%in2024;

TherapidriseofBYDcanbemainlyattributedtothosethreeroundsofpricewarscenteredmoreontechnicalcontent:the2021Kickoff(BYDdidnothaveauniformnameforthispricewar，sowe’lljustcallit“kickoff”),the2023Championandthe2024Honor,aswellasitsverticalintegrationmodel

independentfromthemainstreamsupplybasemodeldominatedbyinternationalsuppliergiants;

Anautomotivesupplybasedominatedbyglobalsuppliergiantshaslongbeenamaturebusiness

modelintheautoindustry,themorescaleofeconomyacarmakerhas,themoreleverageithasoversupplierswhenitcomestocost.GlobalmainstreamcarmakersandsuppliershavetacitlymaintainedtheircorporateinterestsinChinaandinvisiblysuppressedsmallercarmakersincludingChinese

carmakersthathavetriedinearnesttointegratethemselvesintothismaturesupplybasemodelinthehopesofbecomingbiggerandstronger.Luckily,twocarmakersfinallybrokethroughsuccessfullyoverthelastfiveyears:TeslaandBYD.Theformerrapidlyreconfiguredthetraditionalsupplybasemodel

intoanewonebasedonelectrificationandsmartification,whilethelatterrapidlystrengthenedits

verticallyintegratedsupplysystemthroughverticalintegrationandlifeordeathpricewars.Whetherit’sthedifferentiatedapproachfromTeslaorthelifeordeathtacticfromBYD,thecorereasonwhybothwereabletobrokethroughthetraditionalmainstreamsupplymoldwastheybothbenefitedfromtheChinesesupplychain;

Overthelastfouryearsorso,themassivepricewarslaunchedbyChinesecarmakersincludingBYDbasedonverticalintegrationanddomesticsupplychainoptimizationeffectivelyaddressedChinesecarbuyers’strongdesireforprice.Ifthatdesireremainsstronggoingforward,proactivelylaunchingpricewarsremainsacoretacticforcarmakersandtheirbattleforChinesecustomers.

Pre-PurchaseDesireforPriceinChina’sPVMarket2024

Styling/Brand

/

Safety

Energy

Consump

-tion/

\

Price66.56%

Quality

Other

BYDGlobalandChinaSales2016-2024(10,000units)

GlobalChina

500

400

300

200

100

0

mpion

2024HonorEdition

2023Cha

Edition

2021KickoffEdition

(NouniformnameforBYDpricewarin2021,we’lljustcallit“kickoff”）

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

Source:TYRI(YRI)

Fromanincomeperspective,bluecollarbuyershavethehighestdesireforprice,henceBYDlaunchedthepricewaroneconomyblandmodelsliketheQinandSongin2021

Thedesireforpricevarieswidelydependingonsegment.Fromanincomeperspective,thedesireforpricefrombluecollarbuyersin2024topped70%,muchhigherthanthatfrommiddle-classand

wealthybuyers;

ThisstrongdesireforpricefrombluecollarbuyerscreatedanopportunityofalifetimeforBYDto

initiateapricewarin2021:onMarch8,theQinPLUSDM-ihitthemarketatpost-subsidypricesofRMB105,800-145,800,immediatelybecomingacorechallengertopopularcompactcarssuchastheLavida,SagitarandSylphy;onMarch25,theSongPLUSDM-ilaunchedatpost-subsidypricesofRMB146,800-169,800,immediatelybecomingacorechallengertocompetitorssuchastheHavalH6

andChang’anCS75;onApril7,theQinPLUSEVwaslaunchedatpost-subsidypricesof

RMB129,800-166,800,immediatelybecomingthevehicleofchoiceintheride-hailingmarketandshatteringthestrongholdoftraditionalICEvehiclesliketheCorolla,LevinandSylphy…

Injustoneshortmonth,BYDlaunchedthreecriticalmodelsthatsoonattractedmanybluecollar

buyerswithstrongdesireforpricethroughitsoutstandingcomprehensivecostadvantage(lifetimetotalcostofownershipincludingMSRP,maintenanceandrepairandresidualvalue),resultinginitsrapidrise.In2023,morethan90%ofQinNEVbuyerswerebluecollarbuyers,whilethatofQin

PLUS,SongProandDestroyer05allneared90%,andthatoftheSongPLUStopped60%.BYD

becamethenewleaderinthebluecollarcarmarketseeminglyovernight,garnering12.37%ofmarketshareinasegmentofnearly12millionunits,surpassingVWandToyotaforthefirsttime;

Followingthesemultipleroundsoflifeordeathpricewars,BYDforcedcompetitorslikeVW,Nissan,Honda,Buick,HyundaiandKiaonthesamepath.Thefoundationofapricewaristheproduct,manycompetitorsthathavebeenthrustedintothepricewarremainlargelyICEvehicleswithlackofenergysavingcapabilities,andhencetheirmarketperformancecontinuestodeteriorate.

Pre-PurchaseDesireforPriceby

SocialStatus2024

BlueCollarBuyerPenetrationofSelectBYDMainstream

Models2023

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

SongPLUSNEV

BlueCollarMiddle-ClassWealthy

QinNEV

QinPLUSNEV

SongProNEV

Destroyer05

0%50%100%

BYDGlobal&China

Sales2016-2024(10,000units)

GlobalChina

500

400

300

200

100

0

2024HonorEdition

“

March8,2021:QinPLUSDM-ilaunches

atpost-subsidypricesofRMB105,800-145,800

2023ChampionEdition

March25,2021:SongPLUSDM-ilaunchesatpost-subsidypricesofRMB146,800-169,800

April7,2021:QinPLUSEVlaunchesat

post-subsidypricesofRMB129,800-166,800

2021KickoffEdition

(NouniformnameforBYDpricewar

in2021,we’lljustcallitkickoff”）

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

Source:TYRI(YRI)

Bluecollar:annualhouseholdincome<RMB150K,middle-class:RMB150K-500K,wealthy:>RMB500K

Fromausecaseperspective,desireforpricefrommobilityenablingwasstronger,henceBYDkeptlaunchingprice

promotionsinitsmobilityenablinglineupincludingDolphin,SeagullandYuanPLUSin2021-2023

Amongthefourmainstreamusecasesforcarsofmobilityenabling,workcommute,pickup/dropoffkidsandroadtrip,mobilityenablinghasthestrongestdesireforprice,atover71%in2024,similartothatforrefined&stylishproductswhichareprimarilyusedformobilityenabling;

ThischaracteristiccreatedanewopportunityforBYDtolaunchseveralpricewarscenteredonmobilityenablingEVssuchastheDolphin,YuanPLUSandSeagullin2021-2023:onAugust29,2021,the

Dolphinlaunchedtomarketatapost-subsidypricerangeofRMB93,800-121,800,immediately

suppressingthemomentumoftheORAGoodCat;onFebruary19,2022,theYuanPLUSlaunchedatpost-subsidypricesofRMB131,800-159,800,immediatelydisruptingthestrongholdoftheHondaVezel

andXR-VintheentrySUVsegment;onApril26,2023,theSeagullwaslaunchedatanMSRPrangeofRMB73,800-89,800,immediatelyfillingthemobilityenablingblankbetweentheWulingHongguang

MINIEVandtheDophin;

From2021to2023,smallEVsliketheSeagull,DolphinandYuanPLUSnotonlyhelpedBYDrapidly

attracthugeswathsofpricesensitivemobilityenablingusers,theyalsocompletelydisruptedthe

traditionaldominanceofICEvehiclemodelslikethePolo,Fit,VezelandXR-Vinthemobilityenabling

segment.ThisintheoryoffersvaluablereferenceforforeigncarmakerslikeVW,NissanandToyotaonhowtheycaneffectivelytackletheEVmarket.ThekeythoughiswhetherthesetraditionalmodelshavetherightresponseforBYD’ssmallEVoffensive.

DesireforPrice

72%

70%

68%

66%

64%

62%

byUseCase2024

MobilityEnabling

WorkCommute

PickUp/DropOffKids

RoadTrip

Top5PurchaseFactorsfor

Refined&StylishModels2024

Price

Safety

Brand

Quality

Reputation

0%50%100%

BYDGlobal&China

Sales2016-2024(10,000units)

GlobalChina

500

400

300

200

100

0

August29,2021:Dolphinlaunchesatpost-subsidypricesofRMB93,800-121,800

February19,2022:YuanPLUSlaunchesat

post-subsidypricesofRMB131,800-159,800

April26,2023:SeagulllaunchesatMSRPRMB73,800-89,800

2024

HonorEdition

2023Champion

Edition

atpost-subsidypricesofRMB105,800-145,800

March8,2021:QinPLUSDM-ilaunches

March25,2021:SongPLUSDM-ilaunchesatpost-subsidypricesofRMB146,800-169,800

2021KickoffEdition

(NouniformnameforBYDpricewarin2021,we’lljustcallit“kickoff”）

April7,2021:QinPLUSEVlaunchesat

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

post-subsidypricesofRMB129,800-166,800

Source:TYRI(YRI)

In2024,BYDsolidifieditsleadershippositionsinthebluecollarandmobilityenablingmarketswheredesireforprice

isstrong,itwilltrytodothesameinthehigh-endmarketin2025

Inthefirsthalfof2021,BYDlaunchedapricewarbasedonthefactthatbluecollarusershadstrong

desireforpriceandanewproductoffensiveinQinPLUSandSongPLUSprimarilytargetedatblue

collarusers,therebyrapidlybreakingthroughthebluecollarcarmarketdominatedbyICEvehicles.

Fromthesecondhalfof2021to2023,BYDlaunchedapricewarbasedonthefactthatthemobility

enablingmarkethadstrongdesireforpriceandanewproductoffensiveinDolphin,SeagullandYuanPLUSprimarilytargetedatmobilityenablingusers,rapidlycreatinganewblueocean.In2024,notonlyhasBYDlaunchedaslewofnewmodelstargetedatbluecollarbuyersandthemobilityenablinguse

casesuchastheYuanUP,QinL,Seal06,SongLDM-iandSealion05DM-i,ithasextendedthe

pricewarbuiltonthe“Honor”offensiveandlaunchedupgradedtechnologiessuchasDM-i5.0andePlatform3.0,proactivelysolidifyingitsleadershippositionsinthebluecollarandmobilityenabling

markets,therebypushingfullyearsalespast4millionunits;

Maskedunderthistriumphantgrowthin2023-2024though,isplentyofgrowingpains:marketperformanceofaslewofsportsBEVslaunchedsuchastheDenzaN7,SealEV,SongLEV,Sealion07EVandSeal06GThasbeenmediocre;

In2025,manyhigh-endBYDproductssuchastheXia/OceanXX,TangL/OceanXX,DenzaN9,andFangChengBao8willhitthemarket.IftheseproductsstillcannoteffectivelyrivalsimilarproductsfromLiAutoandAITOaftertheDenzaD9,BYDwillconfrontseverechallengesinthehigh-endcarmarket,theharmofwhichwillbeevengreaterthanoneinflictedonthesportsBEVproducts.

New

Technology

DM-i5.0

ePlatform3.0

PriceWar

(Honor)

廠NewModels

(QinL/Seal06/SongL/Sealion05

/YuanUP,etc.)

BYD

Solidifies

Leadership

in2024

Top20BrandsinHighPenetrationofPre-PurchaseDesireforPrice2024

60%65%70%75%80%

Wuling

Chevrolet

DongfengForthing JETTAVenuciaKia

MG

CheryChang'anGeely

DongfengAeolusHyundai

GACAIONBEIJING Roewe NissanVW

Buick HavalBestune

BYDCoreProductFootprint2024(includingmodelstobelaunched)

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

LargeMPVSUV

ng

DenzaN9

H

igh-End

Denza

Bao8Z9GT

D

DenzaD9enzaZ9

DenzaN

7-

Sealion07

SongLEVEV

Bao

5

TangL

Xia

Frigate

Seal-

07-

-Tang

OceanOceanMid

MidtotoLarge

Mo

bility

Enabli

Seal06

GT

SongPLUS

Son

gLDM-i

●Han

D

olphin——

YuanPLUS

QinLBl

ueCo

llar

Seagull

Yuan

UP

Sealion

05DM-i-SongPro

Dest

Seal06royer05

Q

inPLUS-

35003700390041004300450047004900510053005500

Source:TYRI(YRI)

X-axis=vehiclelength(mm),Y-axis=mainpricepoint(RMB10K)

Startingin2026,ahugenumberofexistingBYDownerswillbetradingintheirvehiclesorpurchasenewones,andlotsofentrymodelswill

flocktotheusedcarmarket,theyear2025isreallytheonlyyearBYDhastoachieveabreakthroughinthehigh-endcarmarket

RatherthanmodelsliketheQinPLUSandSongPLUS,whatreallytookdowntheLavida,SylphyandHavalH6-threemodelsthathavelongledthesalesrankingsinChina,mayhaveactuallybeentheirownusedversions.Becausepurelyplayingthebangforthebucktacticwithoutmajorimprovementinproductcompetitiveness,newcarswillalwayslosetousedcars,especiallyconsideringthehuge

ownerbaseoftheLavida,SylphyandHavalH6.BYDshouldn’trestonitslaurelsbecausesoonit’llfacethesamechallenge.Ahugenumberofvehiclesthatweresoldin2021-2024duringthe

growthspurtshouldflocktotheusedcarmarketin2026.IfproductsliketheQinPLUSandSong

PLUSbyarenotupgradedsignificantlyenoughbythen,thentheimpactfromitsownusedcarswillbeassevereandsignificantashowfastnewcarsalesgrew;

Besidesthischallengepertainingtousedvehicles,BYDalsofacesacriticalissueofhowtoretain

existingcustomersthatjoinedthebrandasaresultoftheexplosivegrowthoverthepastfouryears.Fromthelistsoftop10desiredtrade-in/additionalpurchasemodelsfromownersoftheQinPLUS,

SongPLUSandTangNEV,thoughsomemodelsliketheTang,HanandDolphinplayedcrucialrolesofmeetingexistingowners’trade-in/additionalpurchaseneeds,existingBYDownershavevery

strongdesiretoupgradetohigh-endproductsfromcompetingbrandsliketheLiAutoLseries,AITOMseriesandTANK,andthemorehigh-endthecustomersare,themorelikelytheywilloptfora

differentbrand;

Beitpreventionofthechallengescreatedbyusedvehiclesorproactivelyretainingexistingcustom-ers,BYDreallyhasjustoneyearin2025tosortitout.Luckily,BYDislaunchingaslewofhigh-endproductsattheturnoftheyearincludingtheXia/OceanXX,TangL/OceanXX,DenzaN9andFangChengBao8.TheseproductsareveryconducivetoBYDretainingexistingcustomersandcreatenewanewblueocean.Theonlythingthatremainsisexecution,especiallyhowtheywillbepriced.

500

400

300

200

100

0

BYDDomesticSales

2016-2024(10,000units)

3-Year/5-YearResidualofSelectBYDModels

3-YearResidual

600

5-YearResidual

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024E

2026E

2028E

2030E

80%

60%

40%

20%

QinPLUS

Destroyer05

SongPLUS

SongPro

Dolphin

YuanPLUS

Tang

Han

0%

Top10Desired

Trade-in/AdditionalPurchaseModelsforQinPLUS2024

Top10Desired

Trade-in/AdditionalPurchaseModels

forSongPLUS2024

Top10Desired

Trade-in/AdditionalPurchaseModels

forTangNEV2024

0%5%10%

10%

0%

Tang

Han

SongPLUS XiaomiSU7 XingyueL AITOM7 SongPro DenzaD9BMW3SeriesLiAutoL6

TangDolphinHan

SongPLUS ModelY LiAutoL7XiaomiSU7 DenzaD9 Model3Bao5

20%0%5%10%

DenzaD9

Tang DolphinTANK500Han

AITOM7LiAutoL9

Bao5

YuanPLUS

TANK700

Source:TYRI(YRI)

From2025to2026,keycompetitorslikeGeely,GreatWallMotorandCherywillalllaunchhigh-endmodeloffensiveswithcompetitive

pricingandundoubtedlyimpactBYD’snewhigh-endoffensive

Geely,GreatWallMotor,CheryandChang’anhavealwaysbeenkeyBYDrivals,andhavehistoricallybetteredBYDinsales,butnowthatBYDhasbecomethe“kingofthehill,”theyarelookingtofight

back.AlthoughmodelseriesliketheGeelyGalaxy,GreatWallMotorXiaolongandChang’anQiyuanoverthecourseofthesecondhalfof2023tothefirsthalfof2024didnoteffectivelycounterBYD’s

leadershipposition,theGeelyGalaxyE5andXingyuansmallEVsinthesecondhalfof2024quickly

becamepopularandseemtoimpactBYD’scomparablemodels.TheStarship7launchingtoward

yearendisexpectedtotakeonmultipleBYDmodelssuchastheSongProandSealion05;in2025,thehigh-endcarmarketwillbecomeakeybattlegroundforBYDanditsmaincompetitors;

Overthepast2-3years,BYD’smaincompetitorshavelaunchedmultiplehigh-endproductssuchas

theLanshan,Gaoshan,LYNK&CO09,TrumpchiM8,EXEEDLanyue,HongqiHS7andTANK500,withsomequicklyhittingblockbusterstatus.Towardtheendof2024,theVOYAHDreamercreatedahuge

challengeforBYD’shigh-endstarmodel,theDenzaD9.EventhoughsalesoftheBao5havetoppedTANKsales,TANKstillmaintainsanoveralladvantage,andtheYangWangU8seemsabitlonelyatthetop.From2025to2026,thesecompetingbrandswillbringadditionalnewhigh-endproductsthatwillbebiggerandmoreenergysavingsuchastheWEYlargeSUV,EXEEDlargeSUV,EXEEDlargeMPV,

ShanhaiT5,FulwinT11,LYNK&COlargeSUVandGeelylargeSUV.Restassuredthatthesehigh-endproductswillcompeteonprice.IfBYDremainsblindlyconfidentofitsnewhigh-endproducts,notonlywill

corecompetitorsimpactBYD’snewhigh-endoffensive,buttheywillalsopoachawayBYDcustomersitworkedsohardtoaccumulateoverthepastfouryears.BYDrunstheriskofdoingeverythinginvain.

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

High-EndModelFootprintofBYDandSelectCompetitors2025-2026

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Geely

Tang

BYD

DefenseL

ine

TANK700●

Gaoshan

HongqiHQ9PHEV

STERRALarge

nzaN9

De

Bao8

TANK

LY

MPVT5

HongqiHS7PHEV

TANK500-WEY

400-

Lanshan-EX

LargeSUVDe

Trumpchi

Shanhai

nzaD9

MPV

EEDLargeSUV

LYNKTANK

Hongq

Bao5.

iHS7

ET

LYNK

TangL

O

(_i

OceanMid

Large

ceanMidtoLarge

&CO09Trum

Xia

NK&COLargeSUV

toLargeMPVSUV

pchiM8SUV

-STERRA

&CO08300●

Shanhai

EX

Trumpchi

T2

ShanhaiL9

Trump

eπ00Roewei

EEDLanyue

E8

chiES9

8-FulwinT11MAXNEV

MainstreaProductD

mChineseefenseLine

BrandHigh

-End

450047004900510053005500

End-UserSalesofSelectKeyBYDCompetitors2023-2024(units)

HavalMachoSeriesWEY

0

TANK

EXEED

JETOURShanhaiSeriesCheryFulwinSeries

CheryFulwinSeriesLYNK&CO

Chang'anQiyuan

TrumpchiMPV

202301

202303

202305

202307

202309

202311

202401

202403

202405

202407

202409

Source:TYRI(YRI)

X-axis=Vehiclelength(mm),Y-axis=mainpricepoint(RMB10K)

ToyotaHEVswillflocktothehigh-endmarketin2025andVW

energy-savingvehicleswilldothesamein2026,thereforeBYDmuststrengthenitspragmatichigh-endstrategy

From2025to2026,inadditiontocorecompetitorslikeGeelyandGreatWallMotorthatwillendangerBYD’snewhigh-endoffensive,foreigncarmakerslikeToyotaandVWthathadlongbeentheenvyofBYDbutfellbehindinrecentyearswillalsoproactivelyaddressthehigh-endcarmarket;

ThoughToyotasalesinChinacontinuetofallin2024,throughmeasuressuchasoptimizationofresourceallocationandlargevehiclepricing,salesfocusquicklyshiftedfromlowvalue-addentrylevelproductsledbytheCorollaandLevintowardhighvalue-addproductsledbytheSiennaandGranvia.Asoftheendof2024,salesoftheSiennaandGranviahavereachedamonthlylevelofabout10,000units,onparwith

BYD’shigh-endstarDenzaD9.In2025,ifToyotafurthershiftsresourcestowardhigh-end

energy-savingproductsandoptimizecommercialpoliciesandpricingoflargevehicles,monthlysalesoftheSiennaandGranviacouldapproach20,000unis,notonlyimpactingtheDenzaD9butalsohampernewhigh-endproductsfromBYDsuchastheXiaandTangL.OncetheNEVpurchasetaxexemptionexpiresattheendof2027,theadvantagesofToyotahigh-endenergy-savingvehiclesliketheSiennaandGranviawillbefurtherenlarged.IfbythenToyotalaunchesmorenewvehiclesliketheSiennaandNewPradoandfurtherelongatedversionsofexistingvehiclesliketheHighlander,CrownKluger,VenzaandHarrier,it’sgoingtoposeaseriouschallengeforBYD’shigh-endvehicles;

BesidesToyota,VWalsohasthepotentialtosuddenlyimpactBYD’shigh-endstrategy.In2026bothSAICVWandFAW-VWplantolaunchenergy-savingproductslikePHEVsaswellaslarge

energy-savingvehicles.Evenifthetechnicalspecsoftheseupcomingenergy-savingvehiclesdonotmatchthoseofBYD’sDM-i5.0,aslongastheyarepricedright,theystillhavethepotentialtobeverypopular:first,transactionpricingofVW’slargeICEvehiclesliketheTeramont,Talagon,TavendorandViloranhasalreadyfallenintotheRMB200,000range,significantlylowerthanthatofBYD’scompara-bleDenzaD9.EveniffutureVWenergy-savingvehiclesaremoreexpensivethantheirICEvehicle

counterparts,andpossiblypricedatRMB40,000-50,000higherbacktoMSRPlevels,theycouldstill

impactBYD;second,coresellingpointslikelargespaceandmaturedesigninthehigh-endcarmarketdominatedbyboomershavetraditionallybeenareaswhereVWhashadtheupperhand,aslongasit

accelerateseffortstoimproveenergyconsumptioncapabilitiesofitsvehicles,thosesuperiorselling

pointswillonlybemagnified;third,overthelastdecadeorsoVWhasaccumulatedmorethan20millioncustomersinChina,andexistingownersofvehiclesliketheLavida,Sagitar,MagotanandPassatwhichaccountforthemajorityofthose20millionvehiclesaretheprimaryforcesbehindthepurchaseintentoflargeenergy-savingvehicles.TheonlythingmissingforVW’sbattleforthehigh-endcarmarketis

reallylargeenergy-savingvehicles.In2025,VW’ssalesinChinawilllikelycontinuetofallsignificantly,it’slifeordeathforVWin2026anditisgoingtobetonlargeenergy-savingvehicles.ItmustchannelBYD’sdeath-defyingdeterminationexhibitedinearly2021;

Overthepastfewyears,theshareofsalescontributedbymidsizeandlargervehiclesatToyotaand

VWhasbeenrising,andwillexceed40%forbothbrandsin2024.From2025to2026,thebattleforthehigh-endcarmarketwillundeniablybeastrategicpriorityatToyotaandVW.Rightnow,BYDpsycho-logicallyisprettyconfidentofitscompetitionwithToyotaandVW,butweworrythatthismightleadto

cockinessandcomplacency.

High-EndFootprintofBYDVWandToyota2025-2026

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Viloran

BY

Prado

DDefense

Line

Bao8-

TeramontXPHEVT

eramontPHEV

:CrownKluger

G

Sie

Xia

ranvia

TalagonPHEV

nna

DDe

ViloranPHEV

enzaN9nzaD9

TiguanLPHEV

TavendorPHEV

Bao5-.

Tala

TangLOc

Teramont

OceanMidt

gon

oLargeMPVUV

TeramontX-T

eanMidtoLargeS

TiguanL

Tang一

avendor

Highlander

VW,Toyo

taHigh-En

dDefense

Line

450047004900510053005500

ShareofToyotaEnd-UserSales

inChinabyVehicleSize2016-2024

Large

MidtoLargeMidsize

CompactSmall

Micro

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

ShareofVWEnd-UserSalesinChinabyVehicleSize2016-2024

Large

MidtoLargeMidsize

CompactSmall

Micro

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

Source:TYRI(YRI)

X-axis=Vehiclelength(mm),Y-axis=mainpricepoint(RMB10K)

LiAutoandAITOhaveclimbedtothetopofthehigh-endcarmarket

in2024,BYDmustunderstandthatin2025it’llstillbeina“0to1”

phaseinitsbattleforthehigh-endcarmarketandmustsuppressany

ambitionsofLiAutoandAITOtomoveintothesub-RMB200,000segment

In2025,evenifcorecompetitorslikeGeely,CheryandGreatWallMotorposechallengestoBYD’s

high-endstrategy,BYDisstillpsychologicallyastepaheadbecauseofitscurrentmomentumaswellasdeepunderstandingamongthesecompetitors.EvenifforeignmainstreamcarmakerslikeVWandToyotacouldimpactBYD’shigh-endstrategy,jointventuresareusuallyslowtomakeadjustments

andupgrades,aslongasBYDhasaproactiveresponse,impactwillbeminimal.Thebiggestwildcard