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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11001

TradePolicy,GreenGoodsandtheLaborMarketEvidencefromthePhilippines

SouleymaneCoulibaly

AngellaFaithMontfaucon

NatnaelSimachewNigatu

ReginaSeri-Atsebi

WORLDBANKGROUP

EconomicPolicyGlobalDepartmentDecember2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11001

Abstract

Greengoodstradewillmatterforthetransitiontoalow-car-bonglobaleconomyaswellasforitsadaptivecapacitytoclimateevents.ThisstudyexploresgreengoodstradeandrelatedtradepoliciesinthePhilippinesanditsrelationshipwiththelabormarkets.Thepaperfindsthatthecountry’sgreengoodstradeislimitedduetocertaincostlynon-tar-iffmeasuresaffectingenergytransitionandothertypesofgreengoods.Ofabout90measures,fiveareidentifiedasreformcandidates.Reformingthesecouldenhancegreen

goodstrade,asthereisapositivecorrelationbetweenimportsandexportsofgreengoods.However,increasedexportscouldreducethenumberofhigh-skilledworkers,whileimportsmightincreasethesharesoffemaleworkerswithinindustries.Greengoodsimportsalsocorrelatewithhigherearningsacrossindustries.Thestudysuggeststhattradepolicyreformsmayleadtolaborshifts,necessitatingcomplementarypoliciesforaffectedworkerswhenmakingtradepoliciesmoreclimate-friendly.

ThispaperisaproductoftheEconomicPolicyGlobalDepartment.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat

/prwp.Theauthorsmaybe

contactedatamontfaucon@.

ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam

TradePolicy,GreenGoodsandtheLaborMarket:EvidencefromthePhilippines*

SouleymaneCoulibaly,AngellaFaithMontfaucont,NatnaelSimachewNigatu,andReginaSeri-Atsebi

WorldBank

JELClassification:D22,F13,F16,F18,Q56.

Keywords:Greengoods,Non-TariffMeasures,Femaleworker,Skills.

*ThefindingsinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations.TheauthorsaregratefultoGonzaloJ.VarelaandKevinChuaforpeerreviewinganearlierversionofthepaper.WealsothankRalphVanDoorn,JaimeFrias,IsraelOsorio-Rodarte,KarenEnriquez,RuijieChengforusefuldiscussions.WethankBayuAgnimarutoforhelpinputtingtogetherthepaneldataonnon-tariffmeasuresforASEANcountries.ThisworkbenefitedfromthesupportoftheMulti-DonorTrustFundforTradeandDevelopment2financedbyDFID(UnitedKingdom),SECO(Switzerland),SIDA(Sweden),theNetherlandsMinistryofForeignAffairs,theNorwegianMinistryofForeignAffairs,Japan’sMinistryofFinance,andtheNationalGraduateInstituteforPolicyStudies.All

erro.author.

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1Introduction

Tradeingreengoodscanbedefinedastheinternationalimports/exportsofeco-friendlyandsustainableproductsandservices.AccordingtoKang(2020)andbasedontheGreenGoodsandServices-NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(GGS-NAICS)2012classifica-tion,greenindustryproductscanbeclassifiedintofivecategories:i)energyfromrenewableresources;ii)energyefficiency;iii)pollutionreductionandremoval;greenhousegasreduc-tion,andrecycling;iv)naturalresources,andv)environmentalcompliance,educationandtraining,andpublicawarenessandreuse.Inaddition,theyareproductsandtechnologiesthatdonotconsumemanyresourcesandareenvironmentallyfriendlyintheirproductionandutilization(Lietal.,2022).Inrecentdecades,tradeingreengoodshasbecomemoreim-portantforinternationalcompetitivenesssincecountriesworldwiderecognizetheimportanceofaddressingenvironmentalchallengesandtransitioningtoamoresustainableeconomy.

Atthegloballevel,theadvantagesofbeingengagedingreentradearenumerous.

First,itcanboosteconomicgrowthbygeneratingjobsandincreasingthedevelopmentofgreenindustries(Bowen,2012).Second,countriescangainacomparativeadvantageintheirexports(Gongetal.,2020),forexample,byfocusingononeproductwheretheyhavetheadvantageandreducetheirdependenceonnon-renewableimports.Third,beinginvolvedingreentradecoulddriveinnovation,research,anddevelopmentinthecountrytoincreaseitscompetitivenessintheglobalmarket(Liuetal.,2022a,b).Overall,thepromotionofgreengoodscouldcontributetomitigatingtheimpactsofclimatechange,increasecompliancewithinternationalcommitmentsonclimatechangeandreinforceacountry’sreputationasasustainabletradingpartner.

Regardingtherelationshipbetweentradeinenvironmentalgoodsandlabormarkets,greentradecanindeedimplysometradepoliciesthatcouldaffectworkers.Forinstance,shiftingtowardsgreentrademayrequireworkersintraditionalfossilfuel-basedindustriestore-skillorupgradetheirskillstobeemployedinrenewableenergyprojects,whicharestringentregardingtheskillsandalignmentwithinternationalreforms.Thus,although

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greentradecanspurthedemandforskilledandsemi-skilledworkersinnewgreenemergingindustries,itcanalsoraiseconcernsaboutgenderinequality(McFarland,2013;RochaandPiermartini,2023)orskillsintensityandincomeinequality(OCDE,2014),evendependingonthetypesofgreengoodsindustriesorsectors.

ThispaperexaminesthegreengoodstradelandscapeinthePhilippinestounderstandthecurrentlevel,evolutionovertime,andpredominantgreenindustriessectors.Weestimatetheadvaloremequivalent(AVE)ofnon-tariffmeasures(NTMs)ongreengoodstoassessthecostofregulationsongreengoodsimportsandidentifythemostburdensomeNTMsandcandidatesforregulatoryclimate-friendlytradepolicyreform.Finally,sincereformsofNTMswillincreaseimportsandexportsofgreengoods,weassesstherelationshipbetweentheimportsandexportsofgreengoodsinthelabormarkets.ThisisdoneusingtradedataandlaborforcesurveydataattheindustrylevelforthePhilippines.

ThePhilippinesmakesforacompellingcaseforthisanalysis.Asthiscountryisvul-nerabletoclimatechangeimpactslikeextremeweatherevents,agriculturaldisruptions,orrisingsealevels,boldingthegreentradecansupportthecountry’stransitiontowardsamoresustainablearea,enhanceresilience,andalleviateenvironmentalrisks.First,asthePhilip-pinesheavilyreliesonfossilfuelimports,investingingreenenergysuchashydropower,wind,orsolarcanreducethedependenceonfossilfuelimports.Second,regardinginternationalcommitments,sincethePhilippinesisamemberofseveralagreementsinaddressingclimatechangeissuesliketheASEANagreement,participatingingreentradecanhelpthiscoun-tryalignwithinternationalobligationsandenhanceitscommitmenttoaddressingclimatechange.Finally,andmoreimportantly,promotinggreengoodsimportsandexportscandrivejobcreation,increasewagesforpeople,andsupporteconomicgrowth(WorldBankGroup,2022).

ThepaperfindsthatthePhilippines’shareofgreengoodstradeisrelativelylow,partlyduetothehighincidenceofNTMsonimportsofgreengoods.Thepaperfindsfivemeasuresoutofabout90asreformcandidates,whicharecostlyandhaveahigherincidence

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onenergytransitionandothertypesofgreengoodsandtechnologies.Thesemeasuresarereformcandidates,wheretheunderlyingregulationsarerecommendedtobereviewed.Thesereformswouldincreasetheimportsandexportsofgreengoods,especiallysincegreengoodsimportsarelinkedwithhighergreengoodsexports.Wefindthathighergreengoodsexportsnegativelycorrelateswiththeshareofhigh-skilledworkerswithinindustries.Incontrast,greengoodsimportsareassociatedwithanincreaseintheshareoffemaleworkerswithinindustries.Greengoodsimportsarepositivelycorrelatedwithworkers’earningsacrossindustriesbutnotwithinindustries.Overall,NTMreformslikelyleadtolaborreallocationsacrossindustries.Sincewedonotaddressendogeneityissues,theseresultsonlabordonotnecessarilyrepresentcausalitybutprovideinsightintopossiblerelationshipsandtheneedforcomplementarypoliciesforaffectedworkerswhenreformingtradepolicyinlinewithenvironmentalpolicies.

Wecontributetotheliteratureintwomainaspects.First,weprovidearecentassess-mentofthegreentradelandscapeanditspossibleimplicationsforthelabormarketsinthePhilippines.Second,weinvestigatethetradecostsofNTMsinthecontextofenvironmentalgoodsinthePhilippines,identifytheNTMsthatarethemostrestrictive,andexploretheirrelationshipwithlabormarkets(gender,skillintensity,andannualearningsofworkers).Tothebestofourknowledge,wearethefirsttocarryoutthiskindofstudyinthePhilippinessincemostoftheresearchpapersarefocusedonEuropeancountriesorotherAsiancountries.

Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2presentsthedatadescriptiononthegreengoodstradelandscapeandpossibledistributionalimplications.Section3estimatestheeffectoftradepoliciesongreengoodsandworkers.Section4investigatesthepossiblereltionshipofreformingNTMsandtherebyincreasinggreengoodstrade,onworkers’genderandskillintensity.Section5presentstheconcludingremarks.

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2GreenGoodsTradeLandscapeandLaborMarkets

2.1Data

WerelyondataonNTMs,tariffs,andtradevaluesfromUNCTADandWITSfrom2014to2020tocalculatetheAVEs.Thedataisdisaggregatedatthe6-digitleveloftheHSproductclassification.TheNTMdataisfromtheUNCTADTRAINS(UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment-TradeAnalysisInformationSystem)dataset,whilethetariffandtradedataarefromtheWorldIntegratedTradeSolution(WITS)dataset.TheNTMdatausesacut-offqueryeveryDecember31sttogettheannualperiodfrom2008to2020,althoughthedatawascollectedin2015andthenagainin2018incollaborationwiththeEconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia(ERIA).Thelimittothisdataisthatthisisnotatruepanelbuta“manufactured”panel.

TheseconddatabaseusedisthePhilippinesLaborForceSurvey(LFS),whichprovidesinsightsintotheemploymentstatusofindividualsinthelaborforce.Itincludesdataonannualearnings,workers’industrialaffiliation,occupation,educationlevel,andotherre-latedlabormarketaspects.TheLFSdataiscollectedquarterly,andforthisanalysis,wefocusedonthesurveysconductedbetween2010and2020atthemonthofOctobertoensureconsistency.ItisimportanttonotethattheLFSinvitesdifferentindividualsineachround,makingitarepeatedcross-sectionaldatasetratherthanaproperpaneldataset.Althoughthedataisbasedonsamples–itincludesweightsthatallowtomakegeneralizationsaboutthetotallaborforce.

Thesetwodatabasesweremergedwithadditionaldatasetsthatidentifyproductsclas-sifiedasgreengoods.ThegreengoodsreferredtointhisnotearebasedonthelistofgreenproductsdefinedbytheGreenTransitionNavigator(GTN)–acompilationoftheAPEC,OECD,andWTOgreengoodsclassifications.Toarriveatourfinaldatabase,wefollowedthefollowingsteps:first,wecleanedthetradedataandensuredconsistentHSproductclas-sificationwasusedacrosstheyears.Next,wemergedthisdatawiththeGTNlistofgreen

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goodsattheHS6level,whichidentified19differenttypesofgreengoods.However,astheLFSdatadidnotdirectlycontainproduct-levelinformation,weusedtheHS6-levelproductdatatoestablishlinkswiththepossible2-digitISIC4Rev2industrialclassification.Thetradedataandgreengoodsindicatorswerethenaggregatedattheindustrylevel,showingexportandimportvalues,aswellastheshareofgreengoodswithineachindustry.

Finally,thisaggregateddatawasmergedwiththeLaborForceSurveydatausingthe2-digitindustryclassification.ItisworthnotingthatthePhilippines’industrialclassificationisverysimilartotheISIC4atthe2-digitlevel,allowingforameaningfulintegrationofthedatasets.Theconstructionofthedatasets,asdisplayedinFigure1,allowtoseetradeactivitiesingreengoodsinindustriesandalsodirectlylinkedwiththeworkersperformingthesetasks.

Figure1:Datasources

2.2Philippines’GreenTradeLandscape

TheshareofgreengoodstradeinthePhilippineshasdeclinedinrecentyears,withimportsandexportsaveraging10.8percentand9.3percentover2014-2020(Figure2).TheshareofEGimportshasdeclinedfrom11.1percentin2014to7.6percentin2020Figure2(A).We

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observeamoresignificantdeclineintheshareofEGexportsfrom8.3percentto3.9percentFigure2(B).

ThisdeclineinrecentyearshasresultedintheshareofgreengoodstradeinthePhilippinesfallingbelowtheregionalaverage(Figure3).RelativetootherASEANcountries,wenoticethatin2019,theshareofgreengoodsimportsinthePhilippinesestimatedat7.8percentisaround1percentbehindtheregionalaverage(8.6percent),whilecountrieslikeBruneiDarEsSalamoutperformedwithashareof13.9percent(Figure3,A).Similarly,theshareofEGsexportsestimatedat3.9percentisbelowtheregionalaverage(4.3percent)andfarbehindsomecountrieslikeChina(9.3percent)(Figure3,B).

ThislandscaperevealsthateffortsmayneedtobemadetoenhancegreengoodstradeinthePhilippinestoreturntothedecadeaverage.

Greengoodstradeisspreadacrossvariousindustries,buttheIndustrial-Manufacturing-Transportation(IMT)clusterindustriesdominatevalue-wiseinthePhilippines.ThetopthreeindustrieswiththehighestsharesofgreengoodsimportsaretheManufacturingofrubberandplasticproducts;OtherManufacturing;andManufacturingoffabricatedmetalproducts,asdepictedinFigure4,A.Regardingtheexports,theManufacturingofpaperandpaperproducts,Manufacturingofrubberandplasticproducts,andManufacturingofothernon-metallicmineralproductshaveahighershareofgreengoods(Figure4,B).However,theManufacturingofcomputers,electronics,andopticsproducts,Manufacturingofelectri-calequipment,andManufacturingofmachineryandequipment(IMTcluster)takethetopspotsforvolume.

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Figure2:ShareofEGimportsvaluesintotalimportsandShareofEGexportsvaluesintotalexports(%)inthePhilippines,2014-2020

(A)ShareofEGImportsvaluesinTotalImports(%)(B)ShareofEGExportsvaluesinTotalExports(%)

Source:WITSandGTN

Figure3:ShareofEGimportsvaluesintotalimportsandShareofEGexportsvaluesintotalexports(%)inthePhilippinesandotherASEANcountries,2019

(A)ShareofEGimportsvaluesintotalimports(%)(B)ShareofEGexportsvaluesintotalexports(%)

Source:WITSandGTN

Greengoodsimportsmainlyconsistofintermediateproducts(53.2percent),capitalgoods(39.1percent),andasmallshareofconsumptionproducts(7.6percent),meaningtheyhavethepotentialforgreeningthemanufacturingprocessandbeingusedforexports.Withinintermediateproducts,thelargestsharesofenvironmentalgoodsareEfficientCon-sumptionofEnergyTechnologiesandCarbonCaptureandStorage(47.5percent),WasteWaterManagementandPotableWaterTreatment(28.5percent),andRenewableEnergy(22.3percent).Thesecategoriescontainsomegoodsusedasinputsforgreenexportsandpurposedforenduse,asdisplayedinFigureA1.

Thereisapositiverelationshipbetweentheshareofimportsandexportsofgreengoods

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Figure4:%Shareofgreengoodsimportedbyindustries(A)andexportedbyindustriesat2-digitISIClevel2018-2020(average)(B)

(A)(B)

Note:Onlyindustrieswithsomelevelsofgreengoodsimportsandexportsarelisted.Thebubblesizeindicatesthevolumeofthegreentrade.Source:WITSandGTN

withinindustries,suggestingtheimportanceofimportingforexportingandtheroleofGVCparticipation.FigureA2,plottingtherelationshipbetweengreengoodsimportsandexportswithinindustries,showsthatgreengoodsimportsarepositivelyassociatedwithgreengoodsexports.Infact,industriesthatimportgreengoodsaremorelikelyalsotoexportgreengoods.Thissuggeststhepositiverelationshipbetweenexportsandimportscouldbedrivenbyimportsofintermediateproductsandincreasedglobalvaluechainparticipation.Thisisinlinewithempiricalevidencethatshowsthatimportedinputshaveproductivitygains(YoungGakandTomohiko,2019;Camino-MogroandCarrillo-Maldonado,2023)andenhanceexports(PaneandPatunru,2023;Requenaetal.,2022;BasandStrauss-Kahn,2014)andproductupgrading(Fengetal.,2016).Hence,wefocusonpoliciesaffectingimportsofgreengoods,asthesewillaffectbothimportsandexports.

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2.3GreenGoodsTradeandtheLaborMarket

Lookingatthecorrelationbetweenthegreengoodstradeandthelabormarket,itisfoundthatahighershareofgreengoodsimportsispositivelycorrelatedwiththeproportionoffemaleworkers.Incontrast,thiscorrelationisweakerinthegreengoodsexportsector.Indeed,Figure5,Aplotsthecorrelationbetweentheshareofgreenimportsandtheshareoffemaleworkerswithineachindustryfrom2018to2020.Weobserveapositivecorrelationbetweenimportsandtheshareoffemaleworkersattheindustrylevel,notablyforindustriesincludingthemanufactureofmotorvehicles,trailers,andsemi-trailers;themanufactureofpaperandpaperproducts;themanufactureofelectricalequipmentofthemanufactureofcomputer,electronicandopticalproducts.However,inFigure5,Brelatedtoexports,weobservealesspronouncedcorrelationbetweengreengoodsexportsandtheshareoffemale

workerswithintheindustry.ThissuggeststhatthePhilippines’strongparticipationintheIMTclusterisarelevantopportunitytogreenitseconomyandincreasefemaleparticipationinGVCswiththerightcomplementarypolicies.

Figure5:GreengoodstradeandlabormarketgenderinthePhilippines

(A)Greengoodsimportsand%offemaleworkers(B)Greengoodsexportsand%offemaleworkers

Source:WITSandGTN

Regardingthedistributionalimpactsofgreentradeontheskillintensityproxiedby

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thenumberofcollegegraduateswithineachindustry,thecorrelationbetweenskillsandgreengoodsimportsispositive,whileitisnegativewithgreengoodsexports.Figure6(A)displaysthecorrelationbetweengreengoodsimportsandskillsintensityfrom2018to2020.Thischartrevealsapositivecorrelationbetweentheshareofgreengoodsimportsandtheshareofcollegegraduateswithinindustries,particularlyinindustriesliketheManufactureofcomputer,electronicandopticalproducts.Contrarily,Figure6(B)revealstherelationshipbetweengreengoodsexportsandskills;thecorrelationisnegative.Therefore,theshifttowardsgreengoodsimports(i.e.,greenintermediateproducts)wouldcreatehighlyskilledandbetter-qualityjobs,likelythroughtechnologyspillovers.

Figure6:GreengoodstradeandskillsintensityinthePhilippines

(A)Greengoodsimportsandskillsintensity(B)Greengoodsexportsandskillsintensity

Note:Thebubblesizemeasuresthenumberofcollegegraduateswithineachindustry.Source:WITSandGTNandLaborForceSurvey

2.4TradePoliciesandGreenGoods

IncidenceofNTMs

NTMsareusuallyinplacetoaddresslegitimatepublicpolicyobjectivessuchasconsumerhealthandsafety.However,somemaybedistortingtotradeandincreasingcostsunneces-sarily,whileothersmaybeattemptingtoachievepolicyobjectivesbetteraddressedbyother

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instrumentsthatarenon-traderelated.

AmongthestandardmeasuresusedtounderstandtheshareofproductsandtradeaffectedbyNTMs,theCoverageRatioandFrequencyRatioarecomputed.TheFrequencyRatioprovidesthepercentageofproductsaffectedbyoneormoreNTMsintotalimportedproducts.TheCoverageRatioistheshareofimportsaffectedbyoneormoreNTMsintotalimports(Disdieretal.,2020).TheFRiscalculatedasfollows:

FRjt=(1)

whereFRjtisthefrequencyratioofcountryjinyeart;NTMjktisthepresenceofaspecificNTMforeachproductkbycountryjinyeart,andNjtisthetotalnumberofproductsatsixdigitsHSbycountryjatyeart.

FortheCoverageRatio(CR),theequationisestimatedasfollows:

whereCRjtistheCoverageRatioofcountryjinyeart,Vjktistheimportvalueofgoodkbycountryjinyeart,andNTMjktisthepresenceofaspecificNTMforeachproductkbycountryjinyeartthattakesavalueof1ifpresentand0ifotherwise.

ManyNTMsapplytoimportedproductsinthePhilippines(TableA9),includingoncapitalgoods(TableA10),intermediategoods(TableA12),rawmaterials(TableA13)andconsumptiongoods(TableA11).ThesespanawiderangeofproductsasdetailedinTableA14toTableA21.

NTMsapplytoalargeshareofalmostalltypesofgreenproductsinthePhilippinesinbothvalueandproductshares.TheproductsmostaffectedbyNTMsareAirPollutionControl,CleanUporRemediationofSoilandWater;andEfficientConsumptionofEnergyTechnologiesandCarbonCaptureandStorage.

Figure7displaysthelistofNTMsaffectingatleast1percentofallgreengoodsproduct

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categories.ItshowsthatthereisheterogeneityinthekindsofmeasuresthataffectgreengoodsimportsinthePhilippines.Forexample,Otherformalitiesnotelsewherespecified(C9)aswellasMerchandise-handlingor-storingfees(F62)affect100percentofallHS-6productsclassifiedasgreengoodsbutalsoaffect100percentofothergoodsinthe2014-2020period.Therearedifferenceswithothermeasures,however.Forexample,Non-automaticimport-licensingprocedures(E1)affectaround75percentofimportvaluesofgreengoodsbutonlyaffect44percentofnon-greengoods.Similarly,testingrequirements(B82),andlabelingrequirements(B31)allapplymoretogreengoodsthannon-greengoods.ThisisconsistentwithotherfindingsthatsuggestthattariffsfavordirtygoodsBrentonandChemutai(2021)anditwouldseemthisisthecaseforNTMs.

SomeofthelowaveragesofNTMincidencemaskdisparitieswithinthetypesofgreengoods,assomearesubjecttomoremeasuresthanothers.Forexample,whiletheaverageforcertificationrequirementforallgreengoodsisjust11percentofimportvalue,thismeasureaffects100percentofairpollutioncontrolproductsandishigherthanaverageforsometypesofgreengoods(Figure8).TherelativelyloweraverageisduetothemeasurenotaffectingallotherproductsnotdisplayedinFigure8.Similarly,whiletheimportlicensefeehasalowaverage,itappliesto30percentofimportsofwatersupply.

Whiletheaboveresultsdemonstratetheincidenceofgreengoodsishigh,thesedonotnecessarilyimplythatsuchNTMsarecostly.ToassesswhethertheseNTMsareincreasingthecostofgreengoodsimports,theliteratureusuallyembarksonamoresystematicanalysis,byestimatingtheadvaloremequivalentsofNTMsasdemonstratedinthenextsection.

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Figure7:AverageFRandCRtop20NTMsonGreenGoodsinthePhilippines,2014-2020

Source:Author’scalculationsbasedonWITSandUNCTADdata;NoteFR=Frequencyratio;CR=Coverageratio

Figure8:AverageFrequencyRatioandCoverageRatioofCertificationrequirements(B83)ondifferenttypesofGreenGoodsinPH2014-2020(%)

Source:Author’scalculationsbasedonWITSandUNCTADdata.Note:Thosewith0%areommitted

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2.5TradePoliciesandtheLaborMarket

High-skill-intensiveindustriesarestronglyassociatedwithloweraveragedutyrates,whilethereisaweaknegativerelationshipbetweenthedutyrateandtheshareoffemalesworkinginindustries.Lookingatthecorrelationbetweentheshareofskillintensityproxiedbytheshareofcollegegraduatesandtheaveragedutyratewithinindustriesingreentrade,itisobservedthatskill-intensiveindustriesexperiencealoweraveragedutyrate(Figure9A).However,therelationshipbetweentheshareoffemaleworkersandtheaveragedutyratewithinindustriesisslightlynegative(Figure9B).Then,importliberalizationingreentradecouldincreasetheshareofhigh-skilledworkersand,toalesserextent,increasefemalelabormarketparticipation.

Higher-skillindustriesareassociatedwithhigherNTMs,whileindustrieswithhighersharesoffemalesareassociatedwithlowerNTMs.TheshareofcollegegraduatesinanindustryispositivelycorrelatedwiththenumberofNTMsappliedtoproductsproducedbytheindustriestheyworkfor(Figure10A).Thismeansthathigh-skilledworkerstendtoworkmoreofteninindustriesthatproduceheavilyregulatedproducts.Incontrast,theshareoffemaleworkerswithinindustrieshasaweaknegativerelationshipwiththenumberofNTMsappliedtoproductsproducedbytheindustrieswheretheywork(Figure10B).

SincethecorrelationsbetweentheNTMsandlabormarketsaredifferentfromthosebetweenthetariffsandlabormarkets,itcouldbesaidthatloweringNTMsandtariffsingeneralingreentradeacrosstheboardcouldhavedifferentiatedeffectsacrossgenderandeducation