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第表6的回歸結(jié)果來看,回歸(2)的lhousedebt與回歸(1)的ldebt相比,顯著性水平和回歸系數(shù)符號均未變化;回歸(4)的over_indebt1與回歸(3)的over_indebt相比,over_indebt1的回歸系數(shù)仍為負(fù)的,但系數(shù)絕對值減少為0.001,顯著性水平也下降了,變?yōu)椴伙@著??偟膩砜矗诵慕忉屪兞糠€(wěn)健性檢驗的結(jié)果證明研究結(jié)果整體上是可靠的。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC6核心解釋變量的穩(wěn)健性檢驗(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)lhousedebt-0.004***(-3.885)over_indebt-0.009**(-2.219)over_indebt1-0.001(-1.537)lincome0.008***0.009***0.007***0.009***(3.683)(4.035)(3.559)(3.127)edu0.018***0.021***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.524)(3.128)(3.019)hukou-0.007-0.006-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.607)(-0.726)(-0.731)marriage-0.008-0.011-0.007-0.010(-0.475)(-0.632)(-0.452)(-0.605)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.013(-1.224)(-1.156)(-1.255)(-1.113)unemployment-0.045***-0.047***-0.044***-0.045***(-4.726)(-4.642)(-4.676)(-4.647)gender-0.015-0.017-0.015-0.019(-1.148)(-1.268)(-1.152)(-1.405)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-2.778)(-3.347)(-3.356)familysize0.011*0.013**0.0100.009(1.756)(1.980)(1.595)(1.507)happiness0.674***0.665***0.674***0.673***(187.212)(170.056)(187.213)(185.692)rural0.105***0.112***0.104***0.101***(2.860)(2.895)(2.837)(2.739)house-0.005-0.011*-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.953)(-1.110)(-1.061)lconsump0.014***0.011**0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.091)(2.347)(2.315)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.355)(-1.229)(-1.129)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.013***(-12.848)(-11.340)(-12.891)(-12.691)Constant0.830***0.809***0.843***0.833***(10.628)(9.597)(10.770)(10.284)Observations36,57832,78736,57636,190R-squared0.7830.7760.7830.782Numberofhhid13,58813,40413,58813,567Ftest0000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1過度負(fù)債的“倒U型拐點(diǎn)”討論在基準(zhǔn)回歸中已經(jīng)討論了過度負(fù)債對健康的影響,為了分析過度負(fù)債程度對居民健康水平的影響差異,以及是否存在拐點(diǎn)使其影響方向發(fā)生變化,本文在基準(zhǔn)回歸的基礎(chǔ)上加入了平方項over_indebt_2,結(jié)果展示于REF_Ref85416888\h表7中。相較于基準(zhǔn)回歸,加入over_indebt_2后的回歸表明,過度負(fù)債的平方項對健康有著顯著性水平為5%的改善作用。負(fù)債資產(chǎn)比系數(shù)為負(fù),平方項的系數(shù)為正且均顯著,說明隨著家庭負(fù)債資產(chǎn)比的增加,自評健康得分較高,居民健康水平上升;但是,當(dāng)家庭負(fù)債資產(chǎn)比增加到一定程度時,自評健康得分降低,能夠抑制居民健康水平上升。由此,需要進(jìn)一步探究家庭負(fù)債資產(chǎn)比對健康水平從負(fù)向變?yōu)檎虻墓拯c(diǎn)值。REF_Ref85991026\h表8中,是對核心解釋變量和被解釋變量間倒U型關(guān)系的檢驗。可以看出,計算出的極值點(diǎn)為28.99973,over_indebt的取值范圍為[0,139.6348],極值點(diǎn)存在于數(shù)據(jù)范圍,并能夠在5%的水平上(P=0.0286)拒絕原假設(shè),且slope在區(qū)間里存在負(fù)號,則認(rèn)為存在倒U型關(guān)系。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC7倒U型拐點(diǎn)回歸(1)(2)VARIABLEShealthhealthover_indebt-0.009**-0.025***(-2.219)(-3.678)over_indebt_20.000**(2.154)lincome0.007***0.007***(3.559)(3.517)edu0.018***0.018***(3.128)(3.129)hukou-0.007-0.007(-0.726)(-0.729)marriage1-0.007-0.007(-0.452)(-0.449)hins1-0.014-0.015(-1.255)(-1.275)unemployment-0.044***-0.044***(-4.676)(-4.669)gender-0.015-0.015(-1.152)(-1.147)age-0.002***-0.002***(-3.347)(-3.353)familysize0.0100.010(1.595)(1.638)happiness10.674***0.674***(187.213)(187.219)rural0.104***0.104***(2.837)(2.832)house-0.005-0.005(-1.110)(-1.085)lconsump0.012**0.012**(2.347)(2.351)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002(-1.229)(-1.228)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.014***(-12.891)(-12.892)Constant0.843***0.844***(10.770)(10.813)Observations36,57636,576R-squared0.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,588Ftest00注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC8倒U型檢驗LowerboundUpperboundInterval0139.6348Slope-.0249432.0951593t-value-3.6779691.902376P>t.000118.0285716討論負(fù)債類別的影響根據(jù)CHFS的負(fù)債類別,對農(nóng)業(yè)負(fù)債、工商業(yè)負(fù)債、房產(chǎn)負(fù)債、車輛負(fù)債、其他非金融資產(chǎn)負(fù)債、教育負(fù)債、醫(yī)療負(fù)債和其他負(fù)債進(jìn)行分別回歸,分析不同負(fù)債類別的差異性。根據(jù)REF_Ref84620339\h表9的回歸結(jié)果(2)—回歸(8)可知除車輛負(fù)債外其余負(fù)債對健康都會產(chǎn)生不利影響,其中,除了車輛負(fù)債和工商業(yè)負(fù)債在10%的水平上不顯著,其他變量均顯著。從影響方向來看,只有車輛負(fù)債對健康的影響是正向的;從顯著性來看,房產(chǎn)負(fù)債的影響最明顯,其次是教育負(fù)債和其他負(fù)債;從回歸系數(shù)絕對值來看,非金融資產(chǎn)負(fù)債的影響最大,其次是教育負(fù)債。車輛負(fù)債對健康水平呈現(xiàn)出積極影響,對此可有兩種解釋,一是車輛作為消耗品,本身就在一定程度上反映了居民的生活情況,擁有車輛的居民往往有著更高的收入和更好的生活環(huán)境;二是不同于房貸,車貸的數(shù)目較低,所帶來的財務(wù)壓力也遠(yuǎn)低于房貸,并且可能存在“有車”的滿足感大于還貸的痛苦感,即對居民主觀情感的效用是正的。房貸和教育負(fù)債都存在顯著的抑制作用,二者都屬于長期的投資,尤其是房價攀升、教育成本激增的現(xiàn)象更使得其壓縮了居民其他方面的支出,甚至是增加了居民的勞動時間。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC9負(fù)債類別回歸結(jié)果(1)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)lagridebt-0.006*(-1.749)lcommdebt-0.003(-1.105)lhousedebt-0.004***(-3.885)lvehidebt0.001(0.309)lnofindebt-0.012*(-1.871)ledudebt-0.007***(-2.966)lotherdebt-0.005***(-2.942)lincome0.008***0.019***0.010***0.009***0.010***0.011***0.007***0.008***(3.683)(3.887)(3.683)(4.035)(3.214)(3.833)(3.504)(3.662)edu0.018***0.0190.016**0.021***0.014*0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(0.811)(2.543)(3.524)(1.878)(2.843)(3.166)(3.136)hukou-0.0070.0070.000-0.006-0.007-0.004-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(0.234)(0.002)(-0.607)(-0.507)(-0.331)(-0.753)(-0.758)marriage-0.008-0.036-0.025-0.011-0.032-0.022-0.007-0.008(-0.475)(-0.898)(-1.127)(-0.632)(-1.158)(-1.050)(-0.434)(-0.502)hin-0.014-0.017-0.005-0.0140.002-0.011-0.014-0.014(-1.224)(-0.297)(-0.343)(-1.156)(0.140)(-0.796)(-1.241)(-1.250)unemployment-0.045***-0.027-0.056***-0.047***-0.047***-0.055***-0.045***-0.044***(-4.726)(-1.304)(-4.629)(-4.642)(-3.378)(-4.580)(-4.720)(-4.675)gender-0.0150.065-0.006-0.0170.011-0.006-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(1.162)(-0.415)(-1.268)(0.634)(-0.412)(-1.167)(-1.107)age-0.002***-0.002-0.002**-0.002***-0.003***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-0.998)(-2.550)(-2.778)(-3.123)(-2.737)(-3.395)(-3.364)familysize0.011*0.0030.013*0.013**0.0110.0110.0090.009(1.756)(0.216)(1.818)(1.980)(1.402)(1.596)(1.490)(1.533)happiness0.674***0.726***0.620***0.665***0.619***0.621***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(101.984)(137.776)(170.056)(124.783)(140.936)(187.160)(187.164)rural0.105***0.0950.148***0.112***0.168***0.137***0.104***0.102***(2.860)(1.217)(3.291)(2.895)(3.149)(3.116)(2.842)(2.779)house-0.0050.008-0.009-0.011*-0.007-0.008-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(0.790)(-1.455)(-1.953)(-1.006)(-1.469)(-1.152)(-1.183)lconsump0.014***0.019**0.0070.011**0.0090.0090.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.133)(1.098)(2.091)(1.165)(1.423)(2.448)(2.294)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.0010.003-0.0020.0010.001-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-0.234)(1.367)(-1.355)(0.499)(0.711)(-1.212)(-1.116)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.015***-0.012***-0.013***-0.013***-0.012***-0.013***-0.014***(-12.848)(-7.219)(-8.062)(-11.340)(-7.277)(-8.420)(-12.858)(-12.872)Constant0.830***0.415**1.023***0.809***1.025***0.987***0.844***0.846***(10.628)(2.272)(10.532)(9.597)(9.320)(10.333)(10.816)(10.822)yearcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolhhidcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolObservations36,57818,07626,15532,78722,77926,88736,56136,557R-squared0.7830.8150.7210.7760.7340.7260.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58812,80513,29113,40413,09313,30913,58813,588Ftest00000000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1REF_Ref84620351\h表10是將負(fù)債分為銀行負(fù)債和非銀行負(fù)債,對負(fù)債類別進(jìn)行分析?;貧w(1)是銀行負(fù)債的回歸結(jié)果,可見lbankdebt對health存在顯著的不利影響,即銀行負(fù)債越多,居民的健康水平越低;回歸(2)是非銀行負(fù)債的回歸結(jié)果,此時lnobankdebt對health的影響仍是不利的但并不顯著。結(jié)合二者回歸結(jié)果,負(fù)債中的銀行負(fù)債是影響居民健康的重要因素,作為居民負(fù)債的主要來源之一(房貸、車貸等),其數(shù)額越大,居民的健康水平越低。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC10負(fù)債類別回歸結(jié)果(2)(1)(2)(3)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthlbankdebt-0.006***-0.006***(-5.578)(-5.892)lnobankdebt-0.001-0.001(-1.611)(-1.614)lincome0.008***0.008***0.008***(3.781)(3.773)(3.611)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.061)(3.131)(3.064)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.727)(-0.705)(-0.744)marriage-0.004-0.006-0.005(-0.244)(-0.376)(-0.301)hin-0.013-0.014-0.014(-1.160)(-1.223)(-1.180)unemployment-0.046***-0.044***-0.046***(-4.787)(-4.641)(-4.782)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.139)(-1.111)(-1.143)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.224)(-3.352)(-3.192)familysize0.0100.0100.009(1.542)(1.615)(1.465)happiness10.672***0.674***0.672***(185.392)(187.449)(185.176)rural0.103***0.103***0.104***(2.789)(2.812)(2.813)house-0.002-0.003-0.005(-0.466)(-0.592)(-1.037)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**(2.726)(2.733)(2.402)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.238)(-1.168)(-1.282)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.926)(-12.883)(-12.899)Constant0.820***0.816***0.841***(10.326)(10.443)(10.610)Observations36,07336,57436,073R-squared0.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,57913,58813,579Ftest000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1傾向匹配得分(PSM)回歸結(jié)果雖然REF_Ref84620217\h表3的回歸結(jié)果初步證實(shí)了家庭中負(fù)債與健康間的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,然而遺漏變量問題會導(dǎo)致估計結(jié)果存在偏誤。比如,家庭的金融素養(yǎng)或地區(qū)的發(fā)展程度會同時影響家庭負(fù)債和健康,從而導(dǎo)致有偏誤的基準(zhǔn)回歸結(jié)果。為了更加精確地識別到兩者間的影響方向,需借助實(shí)驗思路進(jìn)一步展開分析?;诓煌烙嫹椒óa(chǎn)生的平均估計效應(yīng)在REF_Ref84620252\h表11中總結(jié),所有回歸以REF_Ref84620217\h表3的(1)為基礎(chǔ),且協(xié)變量與控制變量保持一致。REF_Ref84620252\h表11中的回歸(1)展示未經(jīng)協(xié)變量匹配的一元回歸結(jié)果,可以發(fā)現(xiàn),α1的符號為正,即家庭存在負(fù)債能夠提高健康水平。但回歸(1)中的α1的回歸結(jié)果并不準(zhǔn)確,且系數(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤在10%的水平上不顯著?;貧w(2)是加入?yún)f(xié)變量后的多元回歸結(jié)果,可見α1的回歸系數(shù)為負(fù)且顯著。回歸(3)在回歸(2)的基礎(chǔ)上加上了協(xié)變量進(jìn)行匹配,結(jié)果顯示α1的系數(shù)為負(fù),且在1%的水平上顯著,系數(shù)絕對值較回歸(3)減少不到0.01。這一結(jié)果表明經(jīng)協(xié)變量匹配后的平均處理效應(yīng)可獲得更為準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)果,且在特征相似的家庭中,負(fù)債的存在能夠?qū)е赂畹纳眢w狀況。相較于回歸(3),回歸(4)和回歸(5)進(jìn)行了一對四匹配,回歸(5)進(jìn)行卡尺內(nèi)匹配,回歸結(jié)果均顯示不存在太遠(yuǎn)的“近鄰”?;貧w(6)則是進(jìn)行半徑卡尺匹配,結(jié)果依然類似?;貧w(7)是核匹配,以檢驗PSM回歸的穩(wěn)健性,結(jié)果顯示,回歸方程中的α1總的來說,回歸(2)~回歸(8)的結(jié)果都表明家庭負(fù)債對健康存在不利影響,有家庭負(fù)債的健康得分比沒有家庭負(fù)債的家庭低0.05左右。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC11PSM回歸結(jié)果Panel(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)變量名稱healthATT0.020(1.58)-0.063***(-10.78)-0.063***(-3.66)-0.067***(-5.06)-0.067**(-4.32)-0.047**(-3.04)0.057**

(-4.07)匹配否否是是是是是匹配方法一對一一對四卡尺內(nèi)一對四半徑匹配核匹配注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1工具變量法(IV)回歸結(jié)果本文所研究的被解釋變量健康水平和解釋變量家庭總負(fù)債可能存在著雙向因果關(guān)系,導(dǎo)致解釋變量內(nèi)生性,也就是說總負(fù)債能夠影響健康水平,健康水平也能夠影響總負(fù)債。在現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文采取了省級銀行網(wǎng)點(diǎn)數(shù)(num)、統(tǒng)計局中的住宅商品房銷售面積(s1)和商業(yè)營業(yè)用房銷售面積(s2)共三個指標(biāo)構(gòu)建工具變量。其中,將s1、s2取對數(shù)生成ls1、ls2,并將對數(shù)作為工具變量。利用工具變量進(jìn)行二階段最小二乘法前,要考察工具變量的有效性。首先,對所構(gòu)建的工具變量進(jìn)行過度識別檢驗,檢驗結(jié)果P值為0.2556,故接受原假設(shè),認(rèn)為工具變量(num、ls1、ls2)外生,與擾動項無關(guān)。其次,根據(jù)第一階段回歸結(jié)果可知,工具變量(num、ls1、ls2)對內(nèi)生解釋變量ldebt有較好的解釋力,P值均為0.000,都小于0.01;而在REF_Ref84620307\h表12中,兩個工具變量的F值為21.1614,則不認(rèn)為存在弱工具變量,再使用對弱工具變量進(jìn)行有限信息最大似然法,liml和tsls的系數(shù)估計值相差不大,也說明不存在弱工具變量。最后,進(jìn)行豪斯曼檢驗和DWH檢驗,P值均小于0.1,故認(rèn)為ldebt為內(nèi)生解釋變量。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC12第一階段回歸匯總統(tǒng)計VariableR-sq.AdjustedR-sq.PartialR-sq.F(2,7375)Probldebt0.10370.10320.001721.16140.0000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC13以ldebt為核心解釋變量的不同回歸結(jié)果ols_no_ldebtols_with_ldebttslslimlgmmigmmVARIABLEShealthldebt-0.005***-0.072***-0.075***-0.073***-0.073***(-10.028)(-4.562)(-4.491)(-4.598)(-4.598)lincome0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***(8.935)(8.966)(7.713)(7.620)(7.686)(7.686)edu0.019***0.019***0.030***0.030***0.030***0.030***(9.002)(9.398)(8.559)(8.392)(8.562)(8.562)hukou-0.004-0.005-0.021***-0.021***-0.021***-0.021***(-0.698)(-0.927)(-2.713)(-2.735)(-2.733)(-2.733)marriage0.038***0.037***0.020*0.019*0.020*0.020*(4.230)(4.083)(1.831)(1.736)(1.832)(1.832)hin0.013*0.012*-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(1.874)(1.718)(-0.175)(-0.237)(-0.199)(-0.199)unemployment-0.050***-0.052***-0.080***-0.081***-0.080***-0.080***(-7.391)(-7.722)(-7.883)(-7.765)(-7.893)(-7.893)gender0.0050.004-0.005-0.006-0.006-0.006(0.666)(0.557)(-0.647)(-0.685)(-0.653)(-0.653)age0.001***0.001***-0.003***-0.004***-0.004***-0.004***(5.873)(4.360)(-3.097)(-3.108)(-3.144)(-3.144)familysize-0.007***-0.006***0.0020.0020.0020.002(-4.128)(-3.745)(0.654)(0.759)(0.696)(0.696)happiness0.735***0.734***0.723***0.722***0.723***0.723***(266.024)(265.485)(173.929)(168.704)(173.496)(173.498)rural-0.044***-0.041***-0.009-0.007-0.008-0.008(-6.807)(-6.408)(-0.816)(-0.660)(-0.783)(-0.783)house0.010***0.012***0.029***0.029***0.029***0.029***(3.076)(3.480)(4.954)(4.908)(4.972)(4.972)lconsump0.033***0.036***0.079***0.080***0.079***0.079***(9.342)(10.271)(7.229)(7.041)(7.258)(7.258)lmedical_insurance-0.002*-0.0020.004**0.004**0.004**0.004**(-1.817)(-1.428)(2.030)(2.086)(2.048)(2.047)lmedical_expenditure-0.020***-0.020***-0.018***-0.018***-0.018***-0.018***(-22.383)(-22.264)(-16.849)(-16.514)(-16.787)(-16.787)Constant0.280***0.275***0.212***0.210***0.212***0.212***(7.049)(6.928)(4.251)(4.123)(4.221)(4.222)yearcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolhhidcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolR-squared0.8200.8210.7480.7420.7470.747Ftest000000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1回歸(1)是ldebt不作解釋變量的固定效應(yīng)回歸結(jié)果,回歸(2)是ldebt作解釋變量的固定效應(yīng)回歸結(jié)果,回歸(3)是使用工具變量后的第二階段回歸結(jié)果,回歸(4)是更為穩(wěn)健的有限信息最大似然法,回歸(5)和(6)分別是兩步GMM估計和迭代GMM估計。這里僅對回歸(3)進(jìn)行解釋,結(jié)果表明家庭負(fù)債(ldebt)對居民健康水平(health)的影響為負(fù),系數(shù)絕對值也增加了,即家庭負(fù)債的增加不利于居民對自我健康的評價提升,但其顯著度下降了,可能是使用工具變量后損失了較多的信息。異質(zhì)性分析上文分析了我國居民負(fù)債對健康水平的總體影響,為了使研究結(jié)果更具有說服力,接下來將從負(fù)債類型、負(fù)債期限、性別和年齡對調(diào)查樣本進(jìn)行異質(zhì)性分析,所使用的模型與回歸分析保持一致,都是固定效應(yīng)模型。負(fù)債期限對居民健康的影響進(jìn)一步將負(fù)債按還款期限分為長期負(fù)債和短期負(fù)債,分析不同負(fù)債期限對居民健康的影響程度。REF_Ref84620363\h表14中回歸(1)是長、短期負(fù)債同時作解釋變量對健康的回歸結(jié)果,回歸(2)和回歸(3)分別是短期負(fù)債和長期負(fù)債對健康的回歸結(jié)果。相較于回歸(1),回歸(2)和(3)核心解釋變量lshortdebt和llongdebt的顯著性水平、影響方向均無明顯變化,回歸系數(shù)絕對值llongdebt增加了0.001?;貧w(2)和回歸(3)之間核心解釋變量的統(tǒng)計性質(zhì)幾乎一致,相較于(1),回歸(2)的rural、lconsump顯著度提升了,house顯著度下降了,其余控制變量也無實(shí)質(zhì)性差別,則負(fù)債期限對健康的影響并不存在異質(zhì)性。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC14分負(fù)債期限的回歸結(jié)果(1)(2)(3)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthlshortdebt-0.003***-0.003***(-2.619)(-3.604)llongdebt-0.002**-0.003***(-2.313)(-3.198)lincome0.009***0.008***0.009***(3.921)(3.847)(3.879)edu0.020***0.020***0.020***(3.156)(3.357)(3.150)hukou0.001-0.0050.001(0.115)(-0.534)(0.098)marriage-0.008-0.013-0.008(-0.449)(-0.729)(-0.440)hin-0.013-0.012-0.013(-1.020)(-0.944)(-1.017)unemployment-0.050***-0.046***-0.050***(-4.649)(-4.612)(-4.664)gender-0.017-0.017-0.017(-1.226)(-1.246)(-1.226)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-2.588)(-2.967)(-2.579)familysize0.011*0.0090.011*(1.684)(1.330)(1.683)happiness0.663***0.667***0.663***(163.417)(174.069)(163.397)rural0.104**0.111***0.104**(2.492)(2.932)(2.498)house-0.012**-0.010*-0.013**(-2.124)(-1.945)(-2.443)lconsump0.0090.012**0.008(1.573)(2.261)(1.391)lmedical_insurance-0.001-0.002-0.001(-0.709)(-1.071)(-0.725)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.013***(-10.984)(-11.740)(-10.997)Constant0.838***0.834***0.845***(9.519)(10.201)(9.614)Observations31,24034,03731,240R-squared0.7760.7770.775Numberofhhid13,41613,50313,416Ftest000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭負(fù)債對不同性別群體健康水平的影響根據(jù)REF_Ref84549128\h表15的回歸結(jié)果可看出無論是債務(wù)水平還是過度負(fù)債,都對女性健康有著較為顯著的負(fù)向影響,而對男性的影響不大。從影響方向來看,over_indebt對男性群體健康的影響是正向的,其余都呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向影響;從系數(shù)絕對值大小來看,女性均明顯高于男性,即ldebt和over_indebt給女性帶來的影響效果越是男性的兩倍。針對不同性別群體,家庭債務(wù)對健康影響是存在比大的差別,這可能與男性和女性對相同經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力有著不同程度的心理壓力。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC15分性別群體的回歸結(jié)果VARIABLESgender=0gender=1(1)(2)(3)(4)healthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.002-0.004***(-0.725)(-4.845)over_indebt0.007-0.013**(1.518)(-2.240)lincome0.0030.0040.009***0.009***(0.667)(0.700)(3.861)(3.702)edu0.0020.0020.034***0.034***(0.102)(0.117)(4.175)(4.223)hukou-0.057**-0.057**0.0030.003(-2.222)(-2.236)(0.257)(0.265)marriage0.0240.022-0.005-0.004(0.786)(0.740)(-0.191)(-0.155)hin-0.013-0.013-0.022-0.022(-0.482)(-0.481)(-1.528)(-1.534)unemployment-0.072***-0.071***-0.039***-0.038***(-2.886)(-2.858)(-3.468)(-3.425)age-0.001-0.001-0.003***-0.003***(-0.541)(-0.533)(-3.308)(-3.192)familysize0.046*0.045*0.0100.009(1.805)(1.792)(1.406)(1.292)happiness0.659***0.659***0.673***0.673***(66.219)(66.183)(166.767)(166.754)rural0.0760.0720.112***0.112***(0.565)(0.541)(2.794)(2.783)house-0.022*-0.022*-0.002-0.002(-1.680)(-1.682)(-0.399)(-0.448)lconsump0.0080.0060.013**0.011*(0.553)(0.418)(2.349)(1.959)lmedical_insurance0.0020.002-0.001-0.001(0.489)(0.477)(-0.586)(-0.671)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.012***-0.013***(-4.763)(-4.772)(-10.411)(-10.474)Constant0.921***0.937***0.763***0.776***(3.670)(3.750)(7.949) (8.095)Observations6,8816,88029,69729,696R-squared0.7630.7630.7840.784Numberofhhid3,4763,47611,96111,961Ftest0000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭負(fù)債對不同年齡群體健康水平的影響根據(jù)CHFS樣本數(shù)據(jù)將年齡按30歲以下、30歲-39歲(包括39歲)、40歲-49歲(包括49歲)、50歲及50歲以上進(jìn)行分組,分別代表了青年、中青年、中年和中老年。回歸結(jié)果如REF_Ref84549240\h表16所示。結(jié)果表明,ldebt對30-39歲和50歲以上群體的健康水平顯著負(fù)相關(guān),顯著性水平分別為10%和1%,而過度負(fù)債對各個年齡群體都不存在顯著的回歸關(guān)系,因此過度負(fù)債是不存在年齡的異質(zhì)性的。另外,在回歸系數(shù)符號中,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)家庭總負(fù)債和過度負(fù)債對各個年齡群體的健康都會產(chǎn)生不同程度的不利影響。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC16分年齡群體的回歸結(jié)果VARIABLES29-30-3940-4950+(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)healthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003-0.003*-0.002-0.004***(-0.760)(-1.701)(-1.498)(-3.450)over_indebt-0.008-0.022-0.008-0.003(-0.075)(-0.733)(-0.997)(-0.508)lincome0.026**0.025**0.0050.0040.015***0.015***0.010***0.009***(2.112)(2.114)(0.637)(0.570)(3.790)(3.762)(3.271)(3.200)edu0.0690.0660.0130.0130.046***0.046***0.0140.014(1.004)(0.968)(0.740)(0.749)(3.207)(3.201)(1.473)(1.503)hukou-0.043-0.040-0.030-0.030-0.035*-0.035*0.0010.001(-0.748)(-0.692)(-1.067)(-1.075)(-1.762)(-1.755)(0.047)(0.053)marriage-0.054-0.0540.0340.0350.0510.049-0.008-0.007(-0.665)(-0.674)(0.621)(0.646)(1.171)(1.119)(-0.351)(-0.321)hin-0.093-0.0920.0430.043-0.029-0.028-0.004-0.005(-1.344)(-1.327)(1.304)(1.326)(-1.021)(-0.981)(-0.255)(-0.301)unemployment0.0590.057-0.068*-0.068*0.0150.015-0.060***-0.060***(0.663)(0.650)(-1.894)(-1.871)(0.634)(0.635)(-4.934)(-4.886)gender0.1990.207-0.040-0.041-0.003-0.002-0.015-0.015(1.503)(1.582)(-1.039)(-1.065)(-0.081)(-0.073)(-0.752)(-0.728)familysize0.066**0.064**0.057**0.057**-0.009-0.0080.0100.008(2.241)(2.197)(1.988)(1.997)(-0.412)(-0.381)(1.089)(0.861)happiness0.694***0.694***0.688***0.688***0.685***0.685***0.665***0.666***(22.166)(22.091)(63.345)(63.095)(86.374)(86.190)(137.035)(136.992)house-0.023-0.0250.0020.002-0.003-0.003-0.001-0.001(-0.729)(-0.772)(0.149)(0.152)(-0.292)(-0.320)(-0.170)(-0.163)lconsump-0.063-0.065-0.001-0.0030.0070.0060.012*0.010(-1.552)(-1.619)(-0.045)(-0.156)(0.636)(0.548)(1.816)(1.518)lmedical_insurance-0.007-0.008-0.005-0.0050.0000.0000.0030.003(-0.658)(-0.713)(-1.181)(-1.204)(0.140)(0.107)(1.213)(1.182)lmedical_expenditure-0.016**-0.017**-0.005-0.005-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-2.005)(-2.036)(-1.463)(-1.455)(-5.520)(-5.582)(-10.007)(-9.987)rural0.320*0.317*0.1160.1170.096**0.094*(1.937)(1.906)(1.128)(1.139)(1.967)(1.926)Constan1.117**1.150**0.786***0.802***0.624***0.628***0.658***0.680***t(1.988)(2.057)(3.108)(3.167)(3.915)(3.945)(7.885)(8.146)Observations8228223,9553,9559,0209,02022,78122,779R-squared0.8180.8180.8250.8250.8070.8070.7680.768Numberofhhid4964962,0942,0944,4974,4979,6199,619Ftest00000000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭負(fù)債對不同家庭資產(chǎn)水平群體的影響將居民家庭資產(chǎn)水平從低到高均分為五組,并分別進(jìn)行回歸,結(jié)果依次是REF_Ref85242583\h表17中的回歸(1)、(2)、(3)、(4)、(5)。從實(shí)證結(jié)果易見,低資產(chǎn)水平家庭的負(fù)債對健康的影響較為明顯,隨著資產(chǎn)水平的上升,其呈現(xiàn)出影響效果遞減、影響顯著度下降的趨勢。另外,在回歸(5)中,ldebt的系數(shù)方向發(fā)生了改變,雖然并不顯著,但仍可以推測高資產(chǎn)水平家庭的負(fù)債很可能對健康有著積極效應(yīng)。由此,家庭負(fù)債對不同家庭資產(chǎn)水平群體存在異質(zhì)性。為了更加清晰地探究家庭負(fù)債的調(diào)節(jié)作用,REF_Ref85992460\h表18加入了交互項ldebt*lasset、over*lasset在回歸(2)中,回歸(1)、(3)是基準(zhǔn)回歸,回歸(2)、(4)是交互項回歸結(jié)果。對比回歸(1),回歸(2)的交互項系數(shù)絕對值減少了,說明家庭資產(chǎn)水平能夠削弱負(fù)債對健康的影響,即居民所擁有的家庭資產(chǎn)越多,其家庭負(fù)債越不會降低健康水平。對于回歸(3),回歸(4)交互項的系數(shù)絕對值也下降了,同理,家庭資產(chǎn)水平越高的居民負(fù)債對健康的影響越小。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC17分家庭資產(chǎn)水平群體的回歸(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.005*-0.005**-0.001-0.0030.000(-1.871)(-2.121)(-0.645)(-1.229)(0.027)lincome0.0090.0070.0010.012*0.001(1.522)(0.972)(0.180)(1.913)(0.133)edu0.0240.013-0.013-0.0030.017(0.983)(0.621)(-0.903)(-0.185)(1.442)hukou0.065-0.003-0.0020.0240.000(1.011)(-0.084)(-0.071)(0.920)(0.020)marriage0.041-0.0420.091*-0.061-0.008(0.823)(-0.776)(1.928)(-1.214)(-0.188)hin-0.114-0.001-0.0560.029-0.045**(-1.293)(-0.020)(-1.538)(0.956)(-2.203)unemployment-0.074***-0.073**-0.079***0.014-0.029(-2.885)(-2.343)(-2.715)(0.511)(-1.136)gender-0.010-0.0380.008-0.0010.007(-0.177)(-0.713)(0.208)(-0.036)(0.255)age-0.0010.001-0.003*-0.006***-0.003*(-0.708)(0.580)(-1.655)(-2.629)(-1.687)familysize-0.0260.0010.0280.0180.021(-1.495)(0.083)(1.006)(1.035)(1.224)happiness0.715***0.690***0.673***0.645***0.632***(62.305)(61.196)(61.661)(59.413)(74.827)rural0.0260.0670.1620.1410.478*(0.215)(0.532)(1.122)(1.406)(1.873)house0.016-0.0040.0160.019-0.006(0.768)(-0.215)(0.961)(1.389)(-0.716)lconsump-0.009-0.0030.017-0.0190.007(-0.624)(-0.183)(1.001)(-1.165)(0.532)lmedical_insurance0.007-0.001-0.002-0.007*0.002(1.003)(-0.187)(-0.445)(-1.649)(0.636)lmedical_expenditure-0.012***-0.013***-0.014***-0.008***-0.011***(-3.596)(-3.980)(-4.304)(-2.782)(-4.546)Constant0.710***0.802***0.821***1.458***1.154***(2.944)(3.159)(3.177)(5.849)(5.467)Observations6,2707,4227,6337,6697,584R-squared0.7920.7840.7880.7720.785Numberofhhid3,9795,0585,2705,1294,097Ftest00000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC18家庭資產(chǎn)的調(diào)節(jié)作用(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)ldebt_lasset-0.000***(-4.280)over_indebt2-0.009**(-2.219)over_lasset-0.001**(-2.463)lincome0.008***0.008***0.007***0.007***(3.683)(3.708)(3.559)(3.554)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.115)(3.128)(3.130)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.717)(-0.726)(-0.725)marriage-0.008-0.008-0.007-0.007(-0.475)(-0.465)(-0.452)(-0.459)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.015(-1.224)(-1.223)(-1.255)(-1.261)unemployment-0.045***-0.045***-0.044***-0.044***(-4.726)(-4.722)(-4.676)(-4.682)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(-1.138)(-1.152)(-1.162)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-3.434)(-3.347)(-3.345)familysize0.011*0.011*0.0100.010(1.756)(1.713)(1.595)(1.615)happiness10.674***0.674***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(187.230)(187.213)(187.201)rural0.105***0.105***0.104***0.104***(2.860)(2.854)(2.837)(2.837)house-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.033)(-1.110)(-1.102)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.695)(2.347)(2.354)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.157)(-1.229)(-1.229)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.848)(-12.861)(-12.891)(-12.897)Constant0.830***0.829***0.843***0.843***(10.628)(10.611)(10.770)(10.778)Observations36,57836,57836,57636,576R-squared0.7830.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,58813,58813,588Ftest0000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭負(fù)債對不同收入群體的影響和家庭資產(chǎn)水平一樣,將收入由低到高均分為五組,觀察家庭負(fù)債是否對收入水平不同的群體存在異質(zhì)性。REF_Ref85282823\h表19中回歸(3)、(4)的ldebt對健康水平存在顯著的負(fù)向影響,回歸(1)、(2)、(5)的ldebt也對健康存在負(fù)向影響,即從影響方向來看,ldebt對health存在著消極影響。而且,家庭負(fù)債對中等水平收入群體的健康水平影響較高、低等水平收入群體更為明顯、作用效果更大。此外,隨著家庭收入增加,負(fù)債對健康水平的影響越來越明顯(高收入家庭除外)。進(jìn)一步分析家庭收入在其中的調(diào)節(jié)作用,在REF_Ref85290857\h表20中加入了交互項ldebt_lincome、over_lincome,其中回歸(1)、(3)是基準(zhǔn)回歸,回歸(2)、(4)分別加入了ldebt_lincome、over_lincome。交互項的系數(shù)為負(fù),說明解釋變量ldebt、over_indebt隨lincome的增加而削弱對health的影響,即收入越高的家庭,其負(fù)債對健康水平的影響更小。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC19分收入群體的回歸(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003-0.003-0.005*-0.007***-0.001(-1.127)(-0.996)(-1.745)(-2.653)(-0.684)lincome0.0060.039-0.1040.010-0.056***(1.245)(1.015)(-1.579)(0.152)(-3.628)edu0.0310.0280.0050.0020.005(1.308)(1.095)(0.237)(0.103)(0.369)hukou-0.0230.061-0.0260.011-0.026(-0.585)(1.599)(-0.762)(0.367)(-1.167)marriage0.014-0.0670.038-0.125**-0.071(0.330)(-1.097)(0.667)(-2.053)(-1.407)hin-0.069-0.008-0.0010.021-0.017(-0.635)(-0.155)(-0.035)(0.648)(-0.687)unemployment-0.065***-0.039-0.001-0.072**-0.011(-2.659)(-1.117)(-0.028)(-1.968)(-0.370)gender0.0050.001-0.0220.020-0.008(0.095)(0.016)(-0.429)(0.511)(-0.272)age0.002-0.003-0.007***-0.004-0.003(0.912)(-1.139)(-2.680)(-1.407)(-1.440)familysize-0.039-0.001-0.021-0.0040.043***(-1.500)(-0.036)(-0.671)(-0.111)(3.027)happiness10.715***0.677***0.660***0.645***0.629***(63.595)(54.458)(52.734)(54.075)(66.398)rural-0.0070.201**0.016-0.0150.091(-0.065)(2.096)(0.147)(-0.141)(0.536)house-0.000-0.023-0.0090.010-0.001(-0.028)(-1.184)(-0.511)(0.615)(-0.084)lconsump0.026*-0.0270.068***0.0270.009(1.789)(-1.437)(3.334)(1.429)(0.631)lmedical_insurance0.010-0.0040.003-0.0060.000(1.511)(-0.562)(0.587)(-1.249)(0.032)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.012***-0.016***-0.016***-0.011***(-4.370)(-3.348)(-4.513)(-4.823)(-3.789)Constant0.3840.768*1.903**1.0901.914***(1.580)(1.712)(2.528)(1.377)(6.999)Observations7,1797,3067,3057,3707,418R-squared0.7830.7820.7810.7790.787Numberofhhid4,7805,4195,6075,4264,737Ftest00000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC20家庭收入的調(diào)節(jié)作用(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)ldebt_lincome-0.000***(-4.512)over_indebt2-0.009**(-2.219)over_lincome-0.001***(-2.654)lincome0.008***0.008***0.007***0.008***(3.683)(4.018)(3.559)(3.633)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.112)(3.128)(3.128)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.721)(-0.726)(-0.729)marriage-0.008-0.008-0.007-0.007(-0.475)(-0.465)(-0.452)(-0.454)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.015(-1.224)(-1.231)(-1.255)(-1.261)unemployment-0.045***-0.045***-0.044***-0.044***(-4.726)(-4.712)(-4.676)(-4.667)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(-1.140)(-1.152)(-1.162)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-3.436)(-3.347)(-3.341)familysize0.011*0.011*0.0100.010(1.756)(1.734)(1.595)(1.614)happiness10.674***0.674***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(187.233)(187.213)(187.210)rural0.105***0.105***0.104***0.104***(2.860)(2.862)(2.837)(2.837)house-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.040)(-1.110)(-1.112)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.686)(2.347)(2.337)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.154)(-1.229)(-1.232)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.848)(-12.870)(-12.891)(-12.890)Constant0.830***0.822***0.843***0.841***(10.628)(10.522)(10.770)(10.763)Observations36,57836,57836,57636,576R-squared0.7830.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,58813,58813,588Ftest0000注:Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭負(fù)債對健康水平的影響機(jī)制檢驗REF_Ref84553311\h表21中回歸(1)是ldebt的基準(zhǔn)回歸結(jié)果,回歸(2)、(3)、(4)是機(jī)制一的回歸結(jié)果,回歸(5)、(6)、(7)、(8)是機(jī)制二的回歸結(jié)果,REF_Ref84584444\h表22回歸(9)、(10)、(11)、(12)是機(jī)制三的回歸結(jié)果。影響機(jī)制一回歸(2)的被解釋變量是總資產(chǎn)對數(shù)lasset,是家庭的重要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)之一,ldebt與lasset正相關(guān)(0.017,P<0.01),說明ldebt和lasset同向變化,這一結(jié)果也是符合理論邏輯的;回歸(3)的被解釋變量是health,lasset對health有顯著的促進(jìn)作用(0.023,P<0.01);回歸(4)在回歸(1)的基礎(chǔ)上加入了變量lasset,ldebt對health仍有顯著抑制作用(-0.004,P<0.01),則家庭資產(chǎn)同樣也是中介變量,說明家庭資產(chǎn)越高的家庭,其負(fù)債對健康的沖擊就越小。根據(jù)回歸結(jié)果,ldebt、lasset在三個回歸模型中都是顯著的,則存在家庭負(fù)債—家庭財富—健康水平的影響機(jī)制。表SEQ圖表\*ARABIC21影響機(jī)制的穩(wěn)健標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差回歸結(jié)果(1)機(jī)制一機(jī)制二(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)VARIABLEShealthlassethealthhealthhealthlmedical_insurancehealthhealthldebt-0.003***0.017***-0.004***-0.004***0.008**-0.003***(-4.779)(11.222)(-5.349)(-5.258)(2.548)(-4.779)lasset0.023***0.024***(6.876)(7.210)lmedical_insurance-0.0020.009***-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(2.884)(-1.349)(-1.301)(-1.208)(-1.158)lincome0.008***0.077***0.006***0.006***0.008***0.0130.007***0.008***(3.683)(14.071)(2.729)(2.778)(3.929)(1.447)(3.598)(3.683)edu0.018***0.0130.018***0.018***0.017***0.081***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(0.890)(3.092)(3.054)(2.971)(2.656)(3.137)(3.106)hukou-0.0070.039*-0.008-0.008-0.0110.029-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(1.912)(-0.803)(-0.818)(-1.179)(0.609)(-0.710)(-0.719)marriage-0.0080.082*-0.009-0.010-0.007-0.056-0.007-0.008(-0.475)(1.916)(-0.572)(-0.598)(-0.442)(-0.757)(-0.457)(-0.475)hin-0.0140.033-0.015-0.015-0.0090.149**-0.014-0.014(-1.224)(1.440)(-1.318)(-1.293)(-0.849)(2.032)(-1.249)(-1.224)unemployment-0.045***-0.039*-0.044***-0.044***-0.043***-0.365***-0.045***-0.045***(-4.726)(-1.826)(-4.607)(-4.638)(-4.675)(-8.793)(-4.695)(-4.726)gender-0.0150.061**-0.016-0.017-0.0140.061-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(1.997)(-1.220)(-1.259)(-1.123)(0.844)(-1.118)(-1.148)age-0.002***-0.003-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.001-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-1.604)(-3.212)(-3.356)(-3.459)(-0.467)(-3.325)(-3.459)familysize0.011*0.050***0.0080.0100.0100.157***0.0090.011*(1.756)(3.269)(1.318)(1.571)(1.643)(6.143)(1.522)(1.756)happiness0.674***0.040***0.673***0.673***0.675***0.049***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(6.755)(186.972)(186.892)(193.544)(4.113)(187.261)(187.212)rural0.105***0.0100.104***0.105***0.103***0.291*0.104***0.105***(2.860)(0.116)(2.826)(2.851)(2.892)(1.952)(2.838)(2.860)house-0.0050.057***-0.007-0.006-0.0030.152***-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(5.452)(-1.455)(-1.350)(-0.669)(8.997)(-1.156)(-1.049)lconsump0.014***0.222***0.0060.0080.016***0.073***0.012**0.014***(2.719)(15.873)(1.275)(1.639)(3.418)(3.618)(2.347)(2.719)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.006***-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***-0.014***-0.013***(-12.848)(-2.952)(-12.770)(-12.731)(-13.705)(-3.7

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