2024石油市場報告（英文版）-國際能源署IEA

Titleof

MethodologyNotes

OilIndustryandMarketsDivision

August2024

REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT

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Contents

Introduction(updated) 3

Refininghubs 4

Refineryconfigurationandproductyields(updated) 4

Crudegrades(updated) 5

Petrochemicalmargins 6

Emissioncosts(updated) 7

Energyconsumptioncosts(updated) 7

Refinerymargincalculation(updated) 9

ChangescomparedtoJuly2022model(updated) 9

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Introduction(updated)

TheOilIndustryandMarketsDivisionoftheInternationalEnergyAgencyhaspublishedrefinerymarginssinceJune1992initsmonthlyOilMarketReport.In2022,theIEArefiningmarginscalculationwasrevised

(Methodology2022)

toprovideanindicativesiteaveragemarginbasedonthreecriteria:

-Geography,namely:Mediterranean,NorthWestEurope,Singapore,theUSGulfCoast,andtheUSMidcontinent

-Crudeprocessed:selectionbasedontypicalregionalcrudeslate,accessibility,APIandsulphurcomposition

-Refinerycomplexityprofile:Hydroskimming,catalyticcracking,cokingandpetrochemicalsintegration

ThisnotedetailsthenewAugust2024methodology

(Figure1)

thatintegrates:

-theutilitycostsontopoftheexistingcalculationsuchasnaturalgas,refineryfuelgas,LPG,fueloil,electricity,petroleumcoke,importedsteam

-anewyieldstructurebasedonempiricaldata

-somepricesadjustments

Toavoiddoublecounting,initialenergyuseassumptionsandhydrogenneedscalculationshavebeenremovedfromthenewprocess.Theobjectiveistoprovideamorerealisticrefiningmargindrivenbythecommoditymarket.

Inordertogettheutilitiesdata,thesourcethathasbeenchosenistheIEAWorldEnergyStatistics.Thiscountry-leveldatasetiscalculatedfromtheannualsubmissionbytheOECDmembers.Itcontainsthethroughputandtheconsumptionofalltypesofenergyquotedaboveonacountrylevel.

IEArefinerymarginsremainstrictlyindicative,however,anddonotincludethefullspectrumofothernon-energyvariablecosts(suchaschemicalsorcatalysts),capitalexpendituresormanhourscosts.

ThesemarginsshouldbereferencedasIEAGlobalIndicatorRefineryMargins.Onthechartsandtables,referencedinIEApublications,thesourceshouldbeidentifiedasIEA/ArgusMediaGroupprices.

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Figure1:IEArefinerymarginscalculationworkflow

Refininghubs

Fornow,theIEAwillcontinueassessingrefinerymarginsforfiveregions,includingonlySingaporefromEastofSuezrefininghubs.

NorthwestEurope

MediterraneanEurope

USGulfCoast

USMidcontinent

Singapore

Refineryconfigurationandproductyields(updated)

Twotothreetypesofrefineryconfigurationsareselectedperregion,basedonthecharacteristicsofexistingrefinerycapacity.Forexample,cokingfacilitiesarenotverycommoninNorthwestEurope,whilehydroskimmingrefineriesarerareintheUS.

Refineryconfigurationbyregion

Hydroskimming

Cracking/

Hydrocracking

Coking

Petrochemicalcomponent

NWEurope

X

X

X

Mediterranean

X

X

USGulfCoast

X

X

USMidcontinent

X

X

Singapore

X

X

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Ourmainpurposeistotrackahypotheticalaveragerefinery,basedonprevailingcrudedietsandtypicalproductoutputsineachrefiningcentre.Yieldstakeintoaccountbothlong-termstructuralchangesandtheimpactondemandandrefineryoperations/productconfigurationsandwillbereassessedonanannualbasis.

Initially,themethodologywasdivertingfromsoftware-simulatedrefineryyieldswherethespecifiedconfigurationandcrudegradedrivetheoutputs.Themethodologynowimplementssomeempiricalfeaturestocalculatetheyields.Forsomeregions,theyieldsarenowadjusteddependingontheavailabledata.Forinstance,USGCandUSMCyieldsareobtainedfromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)publications.NorthwestEuropeandMediterraneancracking/hydrocrackingrefineryyieldsarebasedonrefineryinputandoutputdatafromtheIEA’sMonthlyOilStatistics,withadjustmentsforsweetandsourcrudegrades.SingaporerefinerymarginsarebasedonaverageyieldstatisticsforseveralAsiancountries,wherereliabledatasetsareavailable.

Observedproductyieldsaresimplifiedtoincludeonlymajortradedproducts.

Refiningcrudeoilusuallyresultsinavolumetricexpansionasproductscomingoutoftheprocess,andingeneral,productsusedinvarioussectors,tendtobelighterthancrudeoil.Italsoresultsinlossesassulphur,hydrogen,andothernon-hydrocarbongases,water,andvariousimpuritiesareremovedintherefiningprocess.Weusethedifferenceindensitiesofastandardproductbasketandthegivencrudeoiltypetocalculatethevolumetricexpansion.Calculatedvaluesofsulphurremovedareusedtoestimateprocessinglosses.

ForUSrefineries,weassumeaneutralstandingwithregardstotherenewablefuelobligations.ThismeansthatanaverageUSrefineryisassumedneithertohaveadeficitnorexcessofRenewableIdentificationNumbers.

Theyieldtableisavailable

below.

Crudegrades(updated)

Insteadoftyingrefinerymargincalculationstoaspecificgrade,ournewmethodologyisbasedontypesofcrude.Weconsiderlightsweet,mediumsourandheavysourgrades,whichmaybeachronologicalcompositeofseveralcrudegradesthatreflectevolvingcrudeoilsupplyandtradedynamics.Forexample,SingaporelightsweetgradeiscomposedofTapisquotesuntilmid-2019andthenreplacedbyWTIquotesonacostandfreight(CFR)Singaporebasis.Wehavesimilardevelopmentsinproductpriceswhere,forexample,differentdieselorgasoilquotesareconcatenatedtoformacontinuoustimeseriesofdieselprices.Ourcrudeoil,refinedproducts,freightandnaturalgascompositepriceserieshavebeendevelopedinconsultationwithleadingenergyandcommoditypricereportingagencyArgus,ourmarketdataprovider.

Crudetypeswithrespectivegrades

NWElightsweet

NorthSeaDated

NWEmediumsour

ArgusBrentSour

MEDlightsweet*

SaharanBlend

MEDmediumsour*

BasrahMedium

USGClightsweet

WTI

USGCmediumsour

Mars

USGCheavysour*

WCS

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USMClightsweet

WTI

USMCheavysour*

WCS

Singaporelightsweet*

WTI

Singaporemediumsour

Dubai

Singaporeheavysour*

BasrahHeavy

*Compositetypes,precededbyoneormoreothercrudequotes

Petrochemicalmargins

Toquantifythecontributionfromintegratedpetrochemicaloperations,wehaveintroducedasimplifiedpetrochemicalmargincomponentforNorthwestEuropeandSingapore.Itassumesthatnaphthaproducedintherefineryisusedasfeedstockinanintegratedcracker(exceptforvolumesdivertedtogasolineproduction).By-producthydrogenisaccountedforas“free”hydrogensupplyforrefineryusesandisreflectedinsavingsonnaturalgaspurchasesforpetrochemically-integratedrefineries.

Figure3.Petrochemicalmargincomponents

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Emissioncosts(updated)

CarbondioxideemissionsfromhydrogenproductionareaggregatedwiththeemissionsfromrefineryenergyconsumptionandusedasthebasisforcalculatingrefineryemissionallowancecostsfortheNorthwestEuropeandMediterraneanrefininghubs.TheEuropeanEnvironmentAgency’s(EEA)emissionstradingdataareusedforhistoricalcalculations.Wemodel2022emissionsandfreeallocationsbasedonourthroughputforecastand2021emissionsintensity.Thiswillbeupdatedfor2022aftertheEEApublishesthedatain2Q23.

Margintype

CO2emissions(kg/bbl)

NWEuropelightsweethydroskimming

7

NWEuropelightsweetcracking

14

NWEuropemediumsourcracking

26

Mediterraneanlightsweethydroskimming

7

Mediterraneanlightsweetcracking

15

Mediterraneanmediumsourcracking25

Thefollowingtablesummarisesfinalyieldsusedformargincalculationsandemissioncostparameters.

IEAGlobalIndicatorRefineryMarginYieldsandCostParameters2023

LPGNaphthaGasolineJet/KeroDieselHeatOilLSFOHSFOPetcokeTotal

NWEurope

LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking

Mediumsourcracking

Mediterranean

LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking

Mediumsourcracking

USGulfCoast

LightsweetcrackingMediumsourcracking

coking

Heavysour

USMidwest

Lightsweet

Heavysour

Lightsweet

crackingcoking

Singapore

cracking

MediumsourcrackingHeavysourcoking

6.0%7.0%7.0%

3.6%

4.2%7.0%

7.0%7.0%10.0%

10.0%7.0%

5.6%6.3%7.0%

7.0%

6.0%8.0%

20.0%28.0%23.0%

6.1%

8.5%8.0%

4.0%3.9%0.0%

1.0%0.0%

14.8%

20.7%

21.3%

44.0%41.7%43.0%

47.6%50.0%

15.4%

13.3%

8.7%

26.1%

23.2%

28.0%

20.0%28.0%25.0%

12.0%12.0%7.7%

30.7%

27.2%

26.3%

10.1%

11.7%8.0%

25.2%27.3%30.0%

25.7%24.9%

10.0%7.0%10.0%

6.0%7.0%

18.1%

19.2%

27.0%

11.1%

12.2%

12.0%

7.0%7.0%14.3%

28.0%14.0%

0.0%

0.1%

16.4%14.3%

5.2%6.3%3.0%

3.7%4.6%

34.5%12.4%

0.0%

4.5%0.0%

0.0%

8.0%

0.0%

14.3%

13.2%

14.4%

11.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%17.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%17.0%

0.0%

0.0%

8.0%

2.0%

7.4%

0.0%

0.0%10.0%

0.0%0.0%

0.0%

0.0%7.0%

0.0%

14.1%0.0%

100.0%102.0%102.0%

100.0%101.2%101.9%

102.0%100.7%104.0%

102.0%103.5%

102.0%101.5%104.1%

Copyright@2024IEA-AllrightsReserved.

Energyconsumptioncosts(updated)

Inthenewmethodology,theutilityconsumptioncostsarenowincludedintherefinerymargincalculation.

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Themarginalimpactofenergycostsovertherefinery’sgrossmarginisdrivenby:

-Theaverageenergyconsumptionbybarrelofcrudeprocessed

-Theregionaldailypricebyutility

GiventhattheWorldEnergyStatisticsgranularityisbasedonacountrylevel,alistofselectedrepresentativecountries(figurebelow)hasbeenchosentogettheMarginalEnergyConsumption(MJ/blofcrudeprocessed)byregion.

Nationaldatausedasthebasisformodellingrefineryenergycosts

NorthwestEurope

Mediterranean

Singapore

USGulfCoast

USMidcontinent

Hydroskimming

Ireland

Ireland

Korea

N/A

N/A

CatalyticCracking

France/Germany/

Belgium/Netherlands/Finland

Italy/Greece/

Turkiye/Hungary/Spain

Korea

US

US

Coking

N/A

Hungary

Korea

US

US

Source:IEAWorldEnergyStatistics.

Theselectionbycountryisbasedonthenumberofavailablerefineries,theirconfigurationandtheirlocation.Forexample,IrelandisoneoftheonlyEuropeancountriesintheOECDthatpossessesonerefinerythatisconfiguredashydroskimming(HSK).ThisiswhyitisusedforNWEHSKandMEDHSKutilitycostscalculation.Inthemeantime,HungaryisalsoaparticularcasewheretheonlyoperationalrefineryusesaDelayedCoker.

Oncethecountriesareselectedbyregion,aweightedaverageiscalculatedtogetthemarginalconsumptionbyenergyinMJbybarrelofcrudeprocessed(tablebelow).

MarginalEnergyConsumptionbyregion(MJ/blofcrudeprocessed)

Energy\Region

NWE

MED

SING

US

NATGAS

56.6

92.0

62.0

187.9

FUELGAS

206.9

247.2

179.7

114.9

ETHANE

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

LPG

11.1

12.7

3.5

1.1

FUELOIL

14.3

16.4

3.0

0.0

ELECTRICITY

28.2

31.9

49.0

32.5

PETCOKE

27.6

29.3

9.7

60.1

IMPORTEDSTEAM

11.0

4.0

1.2

9.2

TOTAL

355.8

433.5

308.1

405.8

Source:IEAWorldEnergyStatistics2022data

Thefirststepistogetthemarginalconsumptionbyenergy,thesecondstepistochooseanadequatepriceforeachutility(tablebelow).MostofthepricescomefromArgusMediaGroup,thefewexceptionsthatareprovidedbyBloombergconcernpricesthatarenotavailablefrom2010to2020.

Mappingbetweenenergytypeandselectedprice

Energytype

Pricetype

NWE

MED

SING

US

NaturalGas

NaturalGas

TTF

PVB

LNGNortheastAsia

Nymex

FuelGas

LPG

PropanecoasterNWE

PropanecoasterMED

PropaneArgusfareast

PropaneMtBelvieuLST

LPG

LPG

PropanecoasterNWE

PropanecoasterMED

PropaneArgusfareast

PropaneMtBelvieuLST

FuelOil

HSFO

3.5%S380cstcargoNWE

3.5%S380cstcargoWMED

Fueloil3.5%S380cstcargoSING

3.0%SbargeUSGC

Petcoke

Petcoke

x

PetCokeTurkey5.5%S

PetCokeIndia4.5%S

PetCokeUSGC6.5%S

Electricity

Electricity

FrenchOTC

SpanishOTC

JEPX

PowerPJMWest

ImportedSteam

NaturalGas

TTF

PVB

LNGNortheastAsia

Nymex

Source:ArgusMediaGroup,Bloomberg

Oncethemarginalconsumptionbyenergyandthepricesareobtained,theTotalMarginalEnergyCostbycountryiscalculatedfollowingthemathematicalrelationship:

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TotalMarginalEnergycostx(us$/bl)=

Withxcountry,ithetypeofenergy.

ThemainadvantageofthismethodoIogyresidesinthequaIityofthedataset.TheIEAspendsaIotoftimeandresourcesonthedataconsoIidationinordertoprovidetheWorIdEnergyStatistics.AIso,thedatasetisbasedondataprovidedbytheOECDmemberswhichmakesthisapproachempiricaIandnottheoreticaIanymore.

However,afewdownsidesremaininthismethodoIogy:

-ThegranuIarityisbyyearandtheIastdataavaiIabIeisoftentwoyearsbeforepubIication

-ThereareapproximativeassumptionsasitisbasedonacountryIeveI.ThepooIbycountryimpIiesthatmanyreinerieswithdifferentconigurations,crudeassays,Iocationsandmarketsareinthesamebucket.WhichmeansthattwodifferentreineryconigurationscanhavethesamemarginaIenergycostdespitethedifferentoperationaIconditions,crudeprocessedormarketshared.ItcanresuItinanenergycostoverestimation

-TheIackofinformationregardingthenaturaIgasrequiredforhydrogenproductionviasteammethanereformingforsomecountries.ThispartwiIIbeimprovedwiththeIEA’sEnergyDataCentreinordertocIarifywhatisbehindthenaturaIgasenergylow

Refinerymargincalculation(updated)

OncetheyieIds,thepricesandaIIthecostsreIatedobtained

(Figure1)

,thereinerymarginiscaIcuIatedasfoIIowed:

Refinerymarginx,y,z

=Σ(yieldi,x,y,z×pricei,x,y,z)一crudepricex,y一Freightcostx,y一co2taxx,y,z一TotalMarginalEnergycostx

Withxgeography,ycrude,zprofileandiproduct.

ChangescomparedtoJuly2022model(updated)

WhatchangedcomparedtoJuIy2022modeIisthe:

-AdditionofthemarginaIenergycost

-RevisionoftheyieIdsstructurebasedonanempiricaIapproach

-Substitutionofsomepricesthatwereconsideredoutdatedornotadaptedtothemarket

Eachregion’ssensitivityrespondeddifferentIytothethreemainchanges.

TheenergyassessmentunderIinesthedisparitiesbetweenthedifferentregionofthegIobe(seetabIebeIow).NorthwestEurope,MediterraneanbasinandSingaporeseetheIargestimpacttomargins,giventhatenergycostsarehigherhere.Furthermore,thischangeinthemethodoIogyunderscoresthesigniicantcostadvantagethattheUSAenjoysovertherestoftheregions,giventhatnaturaIgasandLPGaresigniicantIycheaper.

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MarginalEnergyCostofaMediumSourFCCprofilebyregion($/blofcrudeprocessed)

Energy\Region

NWE

MED

SING

US

NATGAS

0.51

0.81

0.59

0.35

FUELGAS

1.88

2.37

1.84

0.69

ETHANE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

LPG

0.10

0.12

0.04

0.01

FUELOIL

0.11

0.12

0.02

0.00

ELECTRICITY

0.85

0.73

1.04

0.19

PETCOKE

0.09

0.09

0.03

0.13

IMPORTEDSTEAM

0.10

0.04

0.01

0.02

TOTAL

3.63

4.29

3.57

1.39

Source:IEAMonthlyOilStatistics,IEAWorldEnergyStatistics,EIA,ArgusMediaGroup

Thenexttableshowsthedifferenceofmarginsbetweentheformermethodologyandthenewone.ForNWE,MEDandSINGmostofthedifferenceisexplainedbythemarginalenergycostsubtraction.

RegardingtheUS,therevisionoftheyieldshasasubstantialimpactontheUSGCandUSMCmargins.TheyieldsarenowalignedwithEIApublicationswhichpullsthemarginsdown.ThebiggestcontributoristheGasolineyieldthatwashigherthantheUSGulfCoastandMidContinentyearlyaverage.

IEAMarginsNewVSOlddifferential(Left)andNewMargin(Right)

$/bbl

NWEurope

LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking

Lightsweetcracking+PetchemMediumsourcracking

Mediumsourcracking+Petchem

Mediterranean

LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking

Mediumsourcracking

USGulfCoast

LightsweetcrackingMediumsourcracking

2021

2022

2023

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

Jul24

Diff

-2.32-3.61-2.03-6.49-1.47

-2.26-7.40-8.34

-2.89-8.13-9.68

-0.39-11.98

-2.89-2.67-5.60-3.33

New

0.21-0.104.52-0.387.60

0.64-2.44-2.66

8.157.6610.30

11.9414.03

0.212.14-1.682.29

Diff

-2.80-6.91-7.61-9.13-3.48

-3.18-9.46-11.58

-4.56-12.38-14.50

-4.34-16.50

-2.48-2.07-6.16-1.97

New

7.269.3210.8330.0037.80

5.917.3510.08

22.0823.3131.42

25.5634.11

8.9910.876.6512.30

Diff

-2.25-2.62-2.96-9.91-4.85

-2.49-5.84-10.69

-3.65-10.30-11.87

-2.77-14.42

-1.29-0.92-5.88-2.68

New

5.579.198.