德勤-信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理（英文PPT 35頁）.ppt

1、Credit Risk ManagementEnhancing Your Bottom Line,Ebrahim Shabudin Managing Director Deloitte & Touche LLP,The AFP 23rd Annual Conference New Orleans November 3-6, 2002,Credit Background,Thorough identification and accurate measurement of credit risk, supported by strong risk management can help impr

2、ove the bottom line .An uncertain and volatile economic environment significantly impacts this ability .The desire to grow and turn in outstanding results has a tendency to put pressure on the checks and balances within businesses,Value Proposition,Credit plays a critical role in “selling” products

3、and services Expands revenue opportunities with creditworthy, incremental customers Utilizes innovative structures to support business relationships Effective credit risk management limits credit losses and provides stable cash flows and earnings Marketplace rewards companies exhibiting earnings and

4、 cash flow stability with higher P/E multiples Marketplace penalizes credit induced volatility and “surprises” Raises questions about quality of management,Corporate Credit Risk,Companies are exposed to significant levels of credit risk emanating from different sources Accounts Receivables Other Not

5、es Receivables Buyer and Franchise Financing With Recourse Financing Project Finance Structured Transactions Leases with Recourse Derivatives Exposures FX, Interest Rate Risk, Commodities etc. Collateral Risk Parent or Third Party Guarantees Commercial and Standby Letters of Credit Note also that Cr

6、itical Suppliers to the company may pose specific credit risk,DSO Impact an example,Credit as a Facilitator,Credit risk management is important Credit is a facilitator of business growth and performance High business margins tend to attract lower quality clients and therefore higher risk profile to

7、manage Clients (buyers) may be concentrated in selected industries and provide limited portfolio diversification opportunity Poor credit risk management resulting in negative impact to bottom-line is heavily penalized by markets,Credit Strategy & Risk Tolerance,Specific Quantifiable Objectives Manag

8、ement Review Methodology,Credit Strategy Statement and Risk Tolerance Coordination with Business Plan,The business strategies and objectives drive the establishment of credit policies and procedures. Measurement and reporting as well as the use of current technologies enhance credit decision-making

9、and improve risk management. The entire process is continually re-evaluated and improved.,Credit Risk Areas to Consider,Credit Policy Credit Approval Authority Limit Setting Pricing Terms and Conditions Documentation: Contracts and Covenants Collateral and Security Collections, Delinquencies and Wor

10、kouts,Exposure Management Aggregation Control Periodic Account Reviews Payments/Aging Credit Condition Compliance with Covenants, Terms Technology/Reports Transactions/ Bookings Risk-adjusted Return,Sales Channels Risk Strategy Underwriting Standards Credit Application Analysis Business/ Industry Fi

11、nancial Credit Credit Scoring and Ratings,Origination/ Assessment,Administration,Monitoring/ Control,Risk Management,Portfolio Management Concentration Diversification Allowance for Bad Debts Risk Mitigation Objectives Type of Exposure Instruments or Methods,Value Creation,Business Performance Measu

12、res,Organizations need a rigorous set of measures to support continuous improvement,Performance-based management utilizes metrics that measure actual performance against predetermined thresholds. The thresholds are established taking into account the organizations strategy, operating environment and

13、 process controls.,The measures drive value creation and should support problem identification and correction.,Business Strategy Systems Operations Finance,Performance Management,Sales channels,Contracts & Documentation,Credit analysis,Credit limit,Pricing & terms,Credit Analysis,Credit Decisions,Co

14、llections,CREDIT POLICY,Collateral acceptance,Portfolio management,Financial analysis,Disposal / Risk mitigation,Collateral management,Customer management,Exposure measurement,Management reporting,Exposure aggregation,Recoveries,Credit scoring,Risk rating,RISK MANAGEMENT,Credit Risk Managements Inte

15、r-related Activities,Compliance,Origination,Reporting,Transactions,Credit Policies & Procedures,Analysis & Risk Management,Governance, Control and Implementation,Measurement Methodologies,Technology & Data Integrity,Credit Strategy & Risk Tolerance,A complete and coherent risk management framework c

16、ontains the following elements,Credit Risk Management,A New Paradigm,A new business paradigm had evolved: causing a lack of reliance on good fundamental analysis The idea that stock market values would continue to go up indefinitely Increasingly competitive, complex and volatile market place Higher

17、than expected actual debt burdens Extensive reliance on unrealistic future cash flows Failures in corporate governance Questionable personal and corporate ethics,Implications for Corporate Governance,Current organization structures to be revisited Clarity around roles and responsibilities Need for h

18、onesty, integrity and independence (self-regulation) Technical expertise of people and strong management processes Improved disclosure requirements Importance and implementation of sanctions Increased legislation and compliance requirements,Foundation: Credit Rating and Underwriting Standards Risk I

19、dentification, Origination, Credit Administration, etc.,Short Term: Managing Expected Loss Risk Identification, Transaction Structuring, Approval & Pricing Decisions, Reserving, etc.,Near Term: Managing Economic Capital / Credit VaR Portfolio Risk Concentration, Risk Based Limits, etc.,Vision: Manag

20、ing Risk/Return Pricing decisions,Performance measurement, business and customer segmentation, compensation, etc.,A business model view of Credit Risk Infrastructure components,Credit Risk Management Strategic Vision,Development Stages,Foundation Stage includes application of risk identification met

21、hodologies, risk scoring or rating systems and strong underwriting standards Basic Stage tends to include managing on a transactional basis by evaluating specific attributes such as structuring, collateral and pricing Advanced Stage represents managing on a portfolio basis including aspects such as

22、concentrations, correlations and diversification The Sophisticated Stage includes application of highly developed measurement techniques for transactions and portfolios, supported by decision-making relating to segments or businesses against established hurdle rates.,Credit Risk Clarified,Credit ris

23、k is defined as the risk of loss or potential loss resulting from: Default in contractual obligations by a customer Migration in condition and rating Deterioration in performance Credit risk includes both an expected (predictable) and unexpected (volatile) loss component.,Businesses have to contend

24、with Expected and Unexpected Losses,Expected Losses Anticipated Cost of doing business Charged to provisions Captured in pricing Relatively easier to measure Assessing expected loss includes determining exposure, default probability and severity,Unexpected Losses Unanticipated but inevitable Must be

25、 planned for Covered by reserves Allocated to businesses Difficult to measure Assessing unexpected loss requires making qualitative judgments around potential volatility of average losses,Credit Risk Management Explained,Although credit risk may be difficult to measure it is important to estimate an

26、d manage What does Credit Risk Management mean? It represents an institutions ability to properly identify and evaluate the potential risk of default in payment of obligations of customers It incorporates the firms ability to effectively manage and control this exposure in a way that is consistent w

27、ith the institutions business strategy, risk appetite and credit culture,Important Building Blocks,Effective Credit Risk Management requires Clear origination and underwriting standards A strong corporate and credit culture Highly developed risk measurement techniques Ability to recognize and cover

28、expected and unexpected losses Pricing commensurate with risks undertaken Methodologies to assess net profit contributions by customers and appropriate business segments Proper allocation of capital and management resources In order to: Improve overall corporate performance, measured by a higher EPS

29、 or P/E ratio (or market value),Credit Policy and Process,Credit Policy should be clear and concise Credit Underwriting Standards must be developed and included in policy Credit Processes should be reasonable and allow quick response to clients Healthy balance between sales and credit approval shoul

30、d exist and be respected,Risk Monitoring,Exposure must be complete and current Regular reporting and updating of clients payment performance Minimum annual reviews of clients should be performed Financial conditions should be regularly assessed Required action must be initiated and follow up must ta

31、ke place,Contract Terms and Documentation,Contract negotiations must take place at the right level in the organization Appropriate approvals must be obtained Internal or external legal departments must document completely Terms and conditions should be understood and compliance mechanism put in plac

32、e Exceptions must be reported and managed urgently to resolution,Risk Rating System Effectiveness,Credit Scoring is generally used to “risk rate” homogeneous portfolios Highest applicability is in consumer and retail portfolios Some advanced scoring systems are being migrated for use in rating “midd

33、le market” clients Such models are only as good as the underlying assumptions Internal credit rating systems are difficult to assess and are often not independently validated Client relationship may interfere with objective assessment of risks Rating criteria usually a matter of practice rather than

34、 written policy Ratings are not consistent over time Qualitative credit assessments often lag current market information Institutions often assume a mapping with external ratings in order to quantify credit risk,Effective Risk Rating Systems,Sufficient granularity of risk rating categories Accurate

35、and timely assignment of ratings Clear and consistent application of default definition Periodic calibration, triangulation and validation of risk ratings Accurate identification of migration of transactions and portfolios (as reflected by upgrades and downgrades in ratings),Credit Evaluation: Finan

36、cial Factors,Get the information you need to make a full analysis Some information will need to be cross-checked and obtained on a regular and timely basis Be constructively cynical: new business models are difficult to pull off Be cognizant of delaying tactics Numbers dont tell the whole story!,Cre

37、dit Evaluation: Qualitative Factors,Evaluation of subjective factors is often times more important than the numerical analysis People make a business: visions, values and strategies are only words unless people implement them Management, industry, product, geography, competition etc. all influence r

38、esults and must be properly assessed Analysis-paralysis may lead to wrong decisions,Art and Science of Judgment,Getting access to the best clients and all the relevant information is a challenge Ensuring proper analysis is done requires a strong corporate culture Utilizing qualified resources both i

39、nternally and externally enhances the results Often the lack of the will to act is what causes high losses,Concluding Comments,Companies that measure and manage credit risk in a pro-active manner will benefit from a favorable risk profile resulting in Higher revenue Lower losses Improved efficiencie

40、s Higher EPS, P/E ratios and market values,Concluding Comments,Risk Assessment and Limit Management,Credit Infrastructure and Portfolio Management,Credit Analytics Support,Credit Technology Enablement,Credit Quality Credit Underwriting Risk Rating System Effectiveness Counterparty and Portfolio Limi

41、ts,Organizational Structure Policies and Procedures Technology Selection and Implementation Problem Asset Management,Risk Rating Calibration Transaction Pricing, Structure and Support Default Probability and Recovery Calibration,Credit Reserve Methodology Risk Based Pricing Models Risk Adjusted Retu

42、rn Analysis Portfolio Value Measurement,Credit Risk Measurement Credit Performance Scorecards,Internal Software,External Vendor Software,Appendix: Business Proposal Checklist,Business Proposal Summary Customer, Rating, Legal Status, Line of Business Guarantor, if anysame Collateral, if anytrue value

43、 explained Other Support, if any. Legal or moral only The Transactionrisks and mitigation Amount, purpose, terms and conditions Sources of repayment clearly identified Client payment history and relationship,Appendix: Business Proposal Checklist,Rationale and Analysis Customer, Guarantor, Collateral

44、, Support Facility Description Amount, purpose, tenor, pricing, terms, conditions, covenants, restrictions etc. Consider affect on above e.g. new leverage Facility Rating? Repayment Capacity Future cash flow, conversion of assets etc. Consistency with Credit Strategy and Policy Confirm, and identify any exceptions to policy, underwriting standards, or process Risk adjusted return acceptability,Appendix: Business Proposal Checklist,Client Relati