chen房地產(chǎn)形勢(shì)交流.ppt

April 2010,2,Contents 目錄,Introducing Mapletree 豐樹(shù)簡(jiǎn)介 為什么中國(guó)樓市如此的引人關(guān)注？ 3. 國(guó)務(wù)院“新國(guó)十條”對(duì)樓市有什么影響？ 4. 廣州地區(qū)樓市還能不能投資？,3,Introducing Mapletree 豐樹(shù)簡(jiǎn)介,4,100% owned by Temasek Holdings; 豐樹(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)是新加坡淡馬錫集團(tuán)100%控股的獨(dú)資子公司； Formed in Dec 2000 to hold non-port property assets transferred by Port Authority of Singapore (PSA) to Temasek Holdings; 豐樹(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)于2000年12月由新加坡港務(wù)局的房產(chǎn)部分離而成立； Managed and owned S$11.8 billion of assets comprising office, logistics, industrial and retail/lifestyle properties in Singapore and Asia; 到目前為止，豐樹(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)在亞洲管理并擁有價(jià)值新幣118億（約合人民幣552億）的資產(chǎn)，包括辦公樓、零售、物流、工業(yè)、高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)園等； Extensive regional presence with offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, Chennai, Gurgaon and Tokyo . 豐樹(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)在北京、上海、廣州、香港、吉隆坡、胡志明市、欽奈、古爾岡和東京等城市設(shè)有分公司。,Our profile 公司簡(jiǎn)介,5,Jiangsu 江蘇 Mapletree Wuxi Logistics Park 豐樹(shù)無(wú)錫物流園區(qū),Beijing 北京 Mapletree Beijing Airport EPZ 豐樹(shù)北京機(jī)場(chǎng)出口加工區(qū),Tianjin 天津 Mapletree Tianjin Airport Logistics Park 豐樹(shù)天津空港物流園區(qū) Mapletree Tianjin Port HaiFeng Bonded Logistics Park 豐樹(shù)天津港海豐保稅物流園區(qū),Xian Future City 西安未來(lái)城 Retail & Residential 商場(chǎng)、住宅,Guangdong- Foshan 廣東佛山 Retail & Residential 商場(chǎng)、住宅,China Experience and Expertise 中國(guó)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目,Chengdu Sichuan 四川成都 Retail, SA & Residential 商場(chǎng)、服務(wù)式公寓、住宅,Mapletree Tower (Beijing) 豐樹(shù)大廈（北京）,Shanghai 上海 Mapletree Yangshan Bonded Logistics Park 豐樹(shù)洋山保稅港物流園區(qū),6,NANHAI BUSINESS CITY, GUANGDONG 佛山南海富豐新城 Shareholding 股份 : MIC Fund 豐樹(shù)中印基金 80%, Chinese partner 中方合作伙伴 20% Land Area 土地面積 : Total land area of approximately 421,847 sqm 總占地面積約636.03畝（約42萬(wàn)平 方米） Mixed Use 物業(yè)類(lèi)型 : Integrated development comprising retail, office, hotel and high end residential to be developed over 5 phases 將分5期開(kāi)發(fā)為包含購(gòu)物廣場(chǎng)商業(yè) 園住宅酒店及酒店式服務(wù)公寓 的大型綜合項(xiàng)目。 GFA 建筑面積 : Initial Phase I 第一期 Residential 住宅 - 278,600 sqm Retail 商場(chǎng) 71,000 sqm,MIC FUND - APPROVED PROJECTS,7,為何中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)如此引人注目？,8,“家” 與 HOME”國(guó)人愛(ài)買(mǎi)房？,國(guó)人愛(ài)置業(yè)的強(qiáng)大文化傳統(tǒng) 投資需求無(wú)法釋放 通漲和人民幣升值預(yù)期 社會(huì)保障制度仍未完善,9,國(guó)人愛(ài)買(mǎi)房？,中國(guó)地少人多，這是個(gè)不爭(zhēng)的實(shí)事。管理層要保住十八億畝土地紅線(xiàn)，充分保護(hù)土地可利用資源。于是乎，土地是依然稀缺的。 中國(guó)人有許多美德，勤儉節(jié)約，持家過(guò)日。無(wú)論是養(yǎng)兒養(yǎng)女，更要養(yǎng)房，較多人這樣認(rèn)為，家里有房心中不慌。 投資與投機(jī)心理。由于人們都相信，房屋從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看肯定是增值的，還是抗通貨膨脹的最好方式，因此，人們傾向于將閑錢(qián)投入買(mǎi)房，把買(mǎi)房作為投資方式之一。像前幾年那樣，房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快，短期內(nèi)可能獲得巨大差價(jià)，更會(huì)激起人們的買(mǎi)房投資欲望。最近，買(mǎi)房投資已經(jīng)成為人們一種新的理財(cái)觀念 攀比和炫耀心理。,10,國(guó)務(wù)院“新國(guó)十條”對(duì)樓市的影響,11,新國(guó)十條看點(diǎn)綜述,看點(diǎn)一：停發(fā)第三套房貸款 關(guān)于堅(jiān)決遏制部分城市房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲的通知要求，商品住房?jī)r(jià)格過(guò)高、上漲過(guò)快、供應(yīng)緊張的地區(qū)，商業(yè)銀行可根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，暫停發(fā)放購(gòu)買(mǎi)第三套及以上住房貸款 看點(diǎn)二：遏制外地炒房者 通知要求，對(duì)不能提供1年以上當(dāng)?shù)丶{稅證明或社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)繳納證明的非本地居民暫停發(fā)放購(gòu)買(mǎi)住房貸款。地方人民政府可根據(jù)實(shí)際情況，采取臨時(shí)性措施，在一定時(shí)期內(nèi)限定購(gòu)房套數(shù)。 看點(diǎn)三：物業(yè)稅漸行漸近 通知要求發(fā)揮稅收政策對(duì)住房消費(fèi)和房地產(chǎn)收益的調(diào)節(jié)作用。財(cái)政部、稅務(wù)總局要加快研究制定引導(dǎo)個(gè)人合理住房消費(fèi)和調(diào)節(jié)個(gè)人房產(chǎn)收益的稅收政策。 看點(diǎn)四：?jiǎn)栘?zé)制強(qiáng)化執(zhí)行力 通知指出，各地區(qū)、各有關(guān)部門(mén)必須充分認(rèn)識(shí)房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲的危害性，認(rèn)真落實(shí)中央確定的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控政策，采取堅(jiān)決的措施，遏制房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲，促進(jìn)民生改善和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。建立考核問(wèn)責(zé)機(jī)制，對(duì)穩(wěn)定房?jī)r(jià)、推進(jìn)保障性住房建設(shè)工作不力，影響社會(huì)發(fā)展和穩(wěn)定的，要追究責(zé)任。,12,新政出臺(tái)背景,1、今年經(jīng)濟(jì)工作三大目標(biāo)：調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、防通脹、保增長(zhǎng)，而房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)的賺錢(qián)效應(yīng)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)的一大障礙。 2、高房?jī)r(jià)嚴(yán)重壓抑居民消費(fèi)需求，使得巨大的消費(fèi)潛力得不到釋放，同時(shí)削弱了國(guó)家刺激消費(fèi)的政策效果。 3、2009年房?jī)r(jià)超越2007年高位并持續(xù)上漲，高房?jī)r(jià)成為民生重大問(wèn)題，政府調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)的決心非常大。房?jī)r(jià)、推進(jìn)保障性住房建設(shè)工作不力，影響社會(huì)發(fā)展和穩(wěn)定的，要追究責(zé)任。,13,新政出臺(tái)起因,政策出臺(tái)起因： 1、2010年3月份，全國(guó)70個(gè)大中城市房屋銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格同比上漲11.7%，環(huán)比上漲“1.1%”；市場(chǎng)無(wú)視政策調(diào)控，房?jī)r(jià)呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)上漲態(tài)勢(shì)； 2、“兩會(huì)”剛召開(kāi)完，地王再出，高價(jià)地從一線(xiàn)城市向二三線(xiàn)城市蔓延，房?jī)r(jià)上漲預(yù)期加??；與今年房地產(chǎn)政策調(diào)控的穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)預(yù)期目標(biāo)背道而馳； 3、去年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售強(qiáng)力回暖，開(kāi)發(fā)放緩，導(dǎo)致今年上半年供應(yīng)持續(xù)偏緊，而累積的“剛性需求”旺盛，支撐房?jī)r(jià)持續(xù)向上攀升； 4、5月前后是樓市傳統(tǒng)的銷(xiāo)售旺季，在目前這樣的供需狀況、市場(chǎng)預(yù)期下，容易引起房?jī)r(jià)再次飆升，增加調(diào)控的難度。,14,廣州地區(qū)樓市還能不能投資？,China - RID - Investment - South EMC Meeting 8 Mar 10,16,February is a traditional low season for due to the Chinese New Year Holiday. Foshan Buyers adopt the “wait and see” approach. Reduction in transaction volume and average selling price are observed. HK and national developers continue to acquire lands actively. 2. Guangzhou Transaction volume reduced but selling price sustained. 3. Shenzhen Transaction volume reduced but selling price increased due to launching of high-end products in the core areas. 4. Shanghai Residential transaction volume decrease due to low season and tightened govt measures. Developers actively acquire land.,Executive Summary,2.0 Market Update (Appendix 2.1 - 2.4),Source: S,Area Sold (000m2),Current Stock: 4.0 million m2,/m2,Appendix 2.2.1 Residential Market Update Guangzhou,Low season - Chinese New Year holiday Transaction volume decreased Average transacted price remained stable. It has increased by 46% year-on-year.,Appendix 2.2.2 Residential Projects in Guangzhou,Located in Fangcun of Liwan District, which is a big residential cluster in fringe area of Guangzhou-Foshan. Around 300 units sold in Jan.,Located in Tianhe District of Guangzhou, with dual metro line connection. Planned usage of office but will be strata-title sold as serviced apartment and managed by Marriot. Total stock: 376 units 50sqm (1BD) and 180sqm (5BD) sold out in Feb,Fangcun Cluster,逸彩新世界,NBC,Source: Foshan Construction Bureau, Jing Wei Consultancy,/sqm,Units,Guicheng:,Chancheng:,RID/South-p19,Appendix 2.1.1 Residential Market Update Urban Foshan,Sales price in Guicheng decreased because low-end product such as “星暉園” has a large percentage of transaction volume Transaction volume decreased dramatically due to the CNY holiday and the market is full of atmosphere of “wait and see”,.,Feb 10 : price increased 48.9% y-o-y; -15.1% m-o-m. Feb 10: transaction volume -74.9% m-o-m.,Sales price remains stable and main projects keep stock. Transaction volume decreased due to the CNY holiday,Feb 10 : price increased 40.1% y-o-y; -2.0% m-o-m. Feb 10: transaction volume -28.3% m-o-m.,There are only 4 high-rise and 5 low-rise (8-storey) blocks total 100,000sqm yet to be launched. Efficiency rate is 83% whilst clear ceiling height is 3m. Best selling units are still 130sqm (3-bedroom) and 146sqm (3-bedroom+1 terrace that can be converted to extra bedroom).,Appendix 2.1.2 Benchmark Projects in Guicheng, Foshan,Other Upcoming Projects,Source: Sales Representatives, S, Jing Wei Consultancy,Poly Garden ( 保利花園） Apartment located Foping yi Rd of Qiandenghu Area ,Chancheng District,Source: Sales Representatives, S, Jing Wei Consultancy,Appendix 2.1.3 -Benchmark Projects in Chancheng, Foshan,One of the CapitaLand projects in Chancheng launched new products in Dec but kept a low profile with very limited advertising. Acceptance from the market is ok.,Unit Type: 3-4 bedrooms (130-180sqm) ,total 758 units. The project has achieved overall 19 % sale progress since open-up. AV: 3,448psm; Used international architect + LDI + M&E Consultant,Riverside Ville (凱德瀚城) Apartment located aside Dongping River in Chancheng District,Unit Type: 2 bedrooms (71sqm) 3 bedroom (120 sqm) bareshell , total 2,000units,A.V: 5610psm ( transaction date 2007);,Evian Uptown (招商. 依云上城) - Apartment located in jnction of Kuiqi Rd and Guilan Rd in Chancheng District,Site Area : 150,000 sqm PR : 3.5 CFA :360,000 sqm,Merchant Real Estate project in Chancheng launched phase 1 on 19 Dec and sold out on day.,Area Sold (000m2),/m2,Current Stock: 3.9 million m2,Appendix 2.3.1 Residential Market Update Shenzhen,Source: S,Transaction volume redu