統(tǒng)計學原理第七抽章樣調(diào)查ppt課件

1、1,第七章,抽樣調(diào)查,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,2,第一節(jié) 抽樣調(diào)查的基本概念及理論依據(jù),一、估計量和估計值 二、全及總體和抽樣總體 三、全及指標和樣本指標

2、四、抽樣方式和樣本可能數(shù)目 五、抽樣理論依據(jù),Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,3,一、估計量和估計值,1. 估計量：是指用于估計相關(guān)的總體參數(shù)的統(tǒng)計量。樣本均值、樣

3、本比例（樣本成數(shù)）和樣本方差都是估計量，估計量是隨機的。 2. 估計值：是指估計量的具體數(shù)值。根據(jù)具體樣本數(shù)據(jù)，按照估計量的計算公式，計算出的樣本均值、樣本比例和樣本方差的具體數(shù)值就是估計值。是抽樣推斷的基礎(chǔ)。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0

4、.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,4,二、全及總體和抽樣總體,1. 全及總體（總體）：是指所要認識對象的全體，是同一性質(zhì)的許多個體的集合體。有變量總體與屬性總體之分，全及總體是惟一的、確定的但卻是未知的，常用“N”表示。 2. 抽樣總體（樣本）：是從全及總體中隨機抽取出來一部分單位的集合體。有大樣本和小樣本之分，以30個樣本單位為劃分依據(jù)。 樣本總體是隨機的、已知的，常用“n”表示。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Co

5、pyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,5,三、全及指標和樣本指標,（一） 全及指標 根據(jù)全體總體各個單位的標志值或標志特征計算的、反映總體某種屬性的綜合指標。全及指標也是惟一確定的，但也是未知的。 1. 總體平均數(shù)：根據(jù)變量總體的標志值計算的。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides f

6、or .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,6,2. 總體成數(shù)（總體比例）：常用“P”表示,是指總體中具有某種標志的單位數(shù)在總體中所占的比重。變量總體也可以計算成數(shù)。,具有某種屬性的單位數(shù),總體單位總數(shù),總體成數(shù),不具有某種屬性的單位數(shù),不具有某種屬性的單位數(shù)所占的

7、比重,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,7,3. 總體標準差和總體方差2,都是測量總體標志值分散程度的指標。,（二）抽樣指標 是指根據(jù)抽樣總體各個標志值或標志特征計算

8、的綜合指標。與全及指標相對應也有抽樣平均數(shù)、抽樣成數(shù)、樣本標準差和樣本方差等估計量。抽樣指標是隨機的。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,8,1. 樣本平均數(shù)：,2.

9、 樣本成數(shù)數(shù)：,3. 樣本標準差 和樣本方差：,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,9,四、抽樣方式和樣本可能數(shù)目,（一）抽樣方式 1. 重復抽樣（放回抽樣）：從總體N

10、中隨機抽取n個單位，每次抽取均為獨立試驗。 2. 不重復抽樣（不放回抽樣）：每次抽中的單位不再放回總體中，為不獨立試驗。 3. 考慮順序抽樣：即考慮總體單位的性質(zhì)，還考慮各單位排序的抽樣。 4. 不考慮順序抽樣：只考慮總體單位的性質(zhì)差異，而不考慮其排序的抽樣。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET

11、 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,10,（二）樣本可能數(shù)目,是指從既定的總體中可以抽取多少個樣本，即樣本總體的數(shù)量有多少。 1. 考慮順序的不重復抽樣可能數(shù)目 即不重復排列的可能樣本數(shù)目。計算公式：,設(shè)：N=10，n=5，則： ANn =109876=30240個可能樣本數(shù)目,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty L

12、td.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,11,2. 考慮順序的重復抽樣可能數(shù)目,即可重復排列的可能樣本數(shù)目。公式： BNn=Nn =105 =100000個可能樣本數(shù)目 3. 不考慮順序的不重復抽樣可能數(shù)目 即不重復組合。計算公式：,!,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile .

13、 Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,12,4. 不考慮順序的重復抽樣可能數(shù)目,即可重復組合。計算公式： DNn=CnN+n-1,對于同一總體，采用四種不同的抽樣組織形式，其樣本可能數(shù)目也是不同的。按樣本可能數(shù)目的多少排序依次是：考慮順序的重復抽樣考慮順序的不重復抽樣不考慮順序的重復抽樣不考慮順序的不重復抽樣,Evaluatio

14、n only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,13,五、抽樣理論依據(jù),抽樣調(diào)查的理論依據(jù)是概率論的大數(shù)定律。 （一）大數(shù)定律 1. 獨立同分布大數(shù)定律：證明當n足夠大時，平均數(shù)具有穩(wěn)定性，為用樣本

15、平均數(shù)估計總體平均數(shù)提供了理論依據(jù)。 2. 貝努力大數(shù)定律：證明當n足夠大時，頻率具有穩(wěn)定性，為用頻率代替概率提供了理論依據(jù)。大數(shù)的重要意義P253,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose

16、Pty Ltd.,14,（二）中心極限定律,1. 獨立同分布中心極限定理：證明不論變量總體服從何種分布，只要它的數(shù)學期望和方差存在，從中抽取容量為n 的樣本，則這個樣本的總和或平均數(shù)是個隨機變量，當n 充分大時，樣本的總和或平均數(shù)趨于正態(tài)分布. 2. 德莫佛-拉普拉斯中心極限定理：證明屬性總體的樣本成數(shù)和樣本方差，在n足夠大時，同樣趨于正態(tài)分布。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluati

17、on only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,15,第二節(jié) 抽樣平均誤差,一、抽樣平均誤差的概念 二、影響抽樣平均誤差的因素 三、抽樣平均誤差的意義 四、抽樣平均誤差的計算,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation

18、 only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,16,一、抽樣平均誤差的概念,（一）抽樣誤差 是指樣本指標和總體指標之間在數(shù)量上的差別，是隨機性的代表性誤差。是抽樣推斷的依據(jù)，不包括登記誤差和可能產(chǎn)生的偏差。 （二）抽樣平均誤差 是指所有可能出現(xiàn)的樣本指標的標準差，即所有可能出現(xiàn)的樣本指標和總體指標的平均離差。抽樣實際誤差無法知道，而平均誤差是可能計算的。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.

19、Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,17,二、影響抽樣平均誤差的因素,（一）總體標志的變動程度（x ） 總體標志的變動程度與抽樣平均誤差成同向變動關(guān)系。 （二）抽樣單位數(shù)（n）的多少 在其他條件不變的情況下，抽樣單位數(shù)與抽樣平均誤差成反向變動

20、關(guān)系。 （三）抽樣組織方式 重復抽樣方式的高于不重復抽樣，分類抽樣的低于機械抽樣或整群抽樣。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,18,三、抽樣平均誤差的意義,抽樣平均

21、誤差是一種標準差的概念，是所有可能樣本指標與總體指標之間離差平方的平均數(shù)的平方根。它概括了一系列抽樣可能結(jié)果所產(chǎn)生的所有抽樣誤差。它有三點意義： 1. 是衡量抽樣指標對于總體指標代表性程度的一個尺度； 2. 是計算極限誤差的依據(jù)； 3. 是確定抽樣單位數(shù)多少的計算依據(jù)之一,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides fo

22、r .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,19, 四、抽樣平均誤差的計算,（一）抽樣平均數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差x 是變量總體一系列抽樣平均數(shù)對總體平均數(shù)的標準差。其理論計算公式：,平均數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,樣本平均數(shù)（隨機變量）,總體平均數(shù)（惟一確定的，但通常是未知的）,樣本可能數(shù)目,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty L

23、td.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,20,1. 重復抽樣抽樣平均數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差x,根據(jù)數(shù)理統(tǒng)計理論，在重復抽樣方式下，抽樣平均誤差與全及總體的標準差成正比關(guān)系，而與抽樣總體單位數(shù)的平方根成反比關(guān)系，可推導出如下公式：,平均數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,全及總體的標準差,抽樣單位數(shù),抽樣平均誤差僅為全及總體標準差的,注意理解P259例題,重要,Evaluation only. Created with A

24、spose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,21,2. 不重復抽樣抽樣平均數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差x,不重復抽樣與重復抽樣相比，樣本可能數(shù)目減少，且樣本變量之間不是互相獨立的。因此，在重復抽樣的基礎(chǔ)上考慮一個修正系數(shù)即可。證明過程見P261-26

25、2,總體單位總數(shù),樣本單位總數(shù),抽樣比例,總體標準差,重要,重要,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,22,（一）抽樣成數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差p,屬性總體的標志值是用文字表示

26、的，且標志只有兩個取值，非此即彼，故將屬性總體的標志稱為“交替標志”或“是非標志”。 交替標志也可以計算平均數(shù)（即成數(shù)）和標準差。為了計算交替標志的平均數(shù)和標準差必須將交替變異的標志過渡到數(shù)量標志。 交替標志仍以x表示，設(shè)：x =1表示單位具有某一標志， x = 0表示單位不具有某一標志。具有某一標志的單位數(shù)用N1表示；,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Crea

27、ted with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,23,不具有某一標志的單位數(shù)用N0表示。,總體成數(shù)和標準差與樣本成數(shù)和標準差的計算方法相同。只是總體指標用大寫字母表示，樣本指標用小寫字母表示。例如： 具有某一標志的單位數(shù)占總體的比重：,總體成數(shù),樣本成數(shù),不具有某一標志的單位數(shù)占總體的比重：,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile .

28、Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,24,交替標志的平均數(shù)和標準差計算表P265,樣本成數(shù),屬性總體抽樣平均誤差的計算也有重復抽樣和不重復抽樣之分：,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright

29、 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,25,1. 重復抽樣抽樣成數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差,2. 不重復抽樣抽樣成數(shù)的抽樣平均誤差,樣本成數(shù),樣本單位數(shù),總體單位總數(shù),抽樣比例,解決未知的總體指標的4點辦法：P263,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile

30、 . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,26,1. 用過去調(diào)查所得到的資料。如果有幾個不同的總體方差，應該用數(shù)值較大的。 謹慎性要求。2越大，說明總體的離散程度越高，要抽取更多的樣本單位（n）才具有代表性。 2. 用樣本方差代替總體方差2（） 3. 用小規(guī)模調(diào)查資料計算的方差代替2 4. 用估計材料計算的方差代替

31、2,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,27,（三）抽樣平均誤差計算實例P266,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides

32、 for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,28,樣本平均數(shù),樣本成數(shù),Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004

33、-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,29,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slid

34、es for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,30,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Asp

35、ose Pty Ltd.,31,第三節(jié) 全及指標的推斷,一、全及指標的點估計 二、全及指標的區(qū)間估計,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,32,一、全及指標的點估計,（

36、一）點估計的概念 點估計又稱定值估計，它是直接以樣本指標作為相應總體指標的估計量。 例如，以樣本平均數(shù)直接估計總體平均數(shù)，即：x=X。例如，某地區(qū)根據(jù)樣本資料計算的糧食畝產(chǎn)量為600公斤，就以600公斤作為全地區(qū)糧食畝產(chǎn)水平的估計值。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client P

37、rofile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,33,（二）點估計的優(yōu)缺點,1. 優(yōu)點：點估計能夠提供總體指標的具體數(shù)值，可以作為行動決策的數(shù)量依據(jù)。例如，企業(yè)的市場部門對產(chǎn)品銷量的預測直接決定著生產(chǎn)部門和采購部門的作業(yè)計劃。 2. 缺點：任何點估計的結(jié)果不是對就是錯，并不能提供誤差情況和誤差程度等相關(guān)的信息。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd

38、.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,34,（三）點估計量的評價標準,估計一個總體指標可以用多種樣本統(tǒng)計量，例如估計總體平均數(shù)，可以用樣本平均數(shù)，也可以用樣本中位數(shù)、樣本眾數(shù)等。具體應以哪一個統(tǒng)計量來估計總體平均數(shù)才是最優(yōu)的，就涉及估計量的評價標準問題。 一個優(yōu)良的估計量應該符合以下三個標準：,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET

39、 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,35,1. 無偏性。即樣本統(tǒng)計量的期望值（平均數(shù)）等于被估計的總體平均數(shù)。 2. 一致性。即當樣本單位數(shù)n充分大時，樣本統(tǒng)計量也充分靠近總體參數(shù)（指標）。 3. 有效性。即作為優(yōu)良估計量的方差應該比其他估計量的方差小。 同時具備上述條件

40、的估計量就是優(yōu)良的,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,36, 二、全及指標的區(qū)間估計,（一）區(qū)間估計的概念 區(qū)間估計是在點估計的基礎(chǔ)上，給出在一定的置信程度下，確定總

41、體指標取值區(qū)間的方法和過程。 （二）置信區(qū)間（抽樣極限誤差） 是根據(jù)概率理論，以一定的可靠程度保證抽樣誤差不超過某一事先給定的范圍。這一范圍是抽樣指標與全及指標之間離差的可能范圍。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2

42、004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,37,設(shè)：x 與p分別表示抽樣平均數(shù)與抽樣成數(shù)的置信區(qū)間（抽樣極限誤差），則：,將上式中的絕對值符合去掉并進行變換：,抽樣調(diào)查的目的是用樣本指標來估計總體指標，而不是用總體指標來估計樣本指標,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Clien

43、t Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,38,全及指標X、P的區(qū)間估計公式：,（三）置信程度（可信賴程度或把握程度） 置信程度是用概率來表示的。極限誤差與抽樣平均誤差是什么關(guān)系？是單位誤差，極限誤差是的若干倍。這里的倍數(shù)通常用 t來表示。t稱概率度，它是以為尺度來衡量的相對誤差范圍，在數(shù)理統(tǒng)計中稱為置信度,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty

44、 Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,39,置信程度（概率）與概率度是什么關(guān)系？,數(shù)理統(tǒng)計證明，概率與概率度是一種函數(shù)關(guān)系，即概率是概率度的函數(shù)。用P表示概率用以說明抽樣估計的可靠程度，其函數(shù)關(guān)系式:,用占正態(tài)分布曲線面積的大小表示,3,0.6827 of Area,0.02275 of area,2,0.02275 of area,-1,1,-3,-2,0.9545 of Area,0.

45、9973 of Area,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,40,概率與概率度對照表,舉例：教材P321，第1題。 （1）計算該廠全部燈泡平均耐用時間的取值范圍（概率

46、保證程度0.9973）。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,41,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .N

47、ET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,42,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty L

48、td.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,43,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Cl

49、ient Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,44,（2）檢查500個燈泡中不合格產(chǎn)品占0.4%試在0.6827概率保證下，估計全部產(chǎn)品不合格率的取值范圍。 已知：p = 0.4% , t = 1,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .

50、NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,45,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty

51、Ltd.,46,教材P323，第3題,不合格率=15250=6%，t=1，t=2,（1）t=1時，,（2）t=2時，,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,47,第四節(jié)

52、抽樣組織形式,一、簡單隨機抽樣 二、類型抽樣 三、機械抽樣 四、整群抽樣,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,48,一、簡單隨機抽樣（純隨機抽樣）,是指對總體不作任何分

53、類、排隊處理，從總體的全部單位中隨機抽選樣本單位的方法。 抽樣方法：1. 直接抽選法； 2. 抽簽法； 3. 隨機數(shù)碼表法（亂碼表法）。 適用范圍：1. 對調(diào)查對象了解很少； 2. 總體單位的排列沒有秩序； 3. 抽到的單位比較分散時也不影 響調(diào)查工作。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.

54、5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,49,二、類型抽樣（分類抽樣）,是先對總體單位按一定標志進行分類，然后再從各類別中按照隨機原則抽取一定比例的樣本，由各類樣本組成一個總樣本的方法。 類型抽樣有3方面作用： 1. 利用已知的信息提高抽樣效率，增強樣本對總體的代表性。 2. 便于組織、開展抽樣工作。 3. 便于掌握總體中各個組成部分的情況。,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copy

55、right 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,50,（一）類型比例抽樣法抽樣單位數(shù)的確定,不考慮各類別間標志的差異程度，按照統(tǒng)一的抽樣比例確定各類別要抽取的單位數(shù)。通常用各類別的單位數(shù)占總體單位數(shù)的比例來確定各類別應抽取的單位數(shù)。計算公式：,樣本單位總數(shù),各類別單位總數(shù),總體單位總數(shù),各類別抽取的單位數(shù),例題見教材P279,Evaluation

56、only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,51,（二）類型適宜抽樣法抽樣單位數(shù)的確定,對于標志變動程度大的類別，抽取樣本單位數(shù)的比例相應要大一些，反之，對于標志變動程度小的類別，抽取樣本單位數(shù)的比

57、例相應要小一些。具體計算公式：,各類別抽取的單位數(shù),樣本單位總數(shù),各類別單位總數(shù),各類別標準差,例題見教材P280,各類別的全距,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,5

58、2,（三）類型比例抽樣抽樣誤差的計算,類型比例抽樣的方差由各類內(nèi)部方差和類間方差構(gòu)成，由于類型抽樣的代表性很高，類間方差很小，可以忽略，因此，類型比例抽樣的誤差主要取決于各類內(nèi)部方差的平均數(shù)的大小。 各類平均數(shù)內(nèi)部方差的平均數(shù),Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profi

59、le . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,53,各類成數(shù)內(nèi)部方差的平均數(shù),各類別成數(shù)的內(nèi)部方差,1. 重復抽樣方式下類型抽樣平均誤差的計算,平均數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,成數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,54,2. 不重復抽樣方式下類型抽樣平均誤差的計算,平均數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,成數(shù)抽樣平均誤差,Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.,Eva