風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理【外文翻譯】

1、外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯譯文一、外文原文原文：risk managementthis chapter reviews and discusses the basic issues and principles of risk management, including: risk acceptability (tolerability); risk reduction and the alarp principle; cautionary and precautionary principles. and presents a case study showing the importance of th

2、ese issues and principles in a practical management context. before we take a closer look, let us briefly address some basic features of risk management.the purpose of risk management is to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect people, the environment, and assets from possible harmful c

3、onsequences of the activities being undertaken, as well as to balance different concerns, in particular risks and costs. risk management includes measures both to avoid the hazards and to reduce their potential harm. traditionally, in industries such as nuclear, oil, and gas, risk management was bas

4、ed on a prescriptive regulating regime, in which detailed requirements were set with regard to the design and operation of the arrangements. this regime has gradually been replaced by a more goal-oriented regime, putting emphasis on what to achieve rather than on the means of achieving it.risk manag

5、ement is an integral aspect of a goal-oriented regime. it is acknowledged that risk cannot be eliminated but must be managed. there is nowadays an enormous drive and enthusiasm in various industries and in society as a whole to implement risk management in organizations. there are high expectations

6、that risk management is the proper framework through which to achieve high levels of performance.risk management involves achieving an appropriate balance between realizing opportunities for gain and minimizing losses. it is an integral part of good management practice and an essential element of go

7、od corporate governance. it is an iterative process consisting of steps that, when undertaken in sequence, can lead to a continuous improvement in decision-making and facilitate a continuous improvement in performance.to support decision-making regarding design and operation, risk analyses are carri

8、ed out. they include the identification of hazards and threats, cause analyses, consequence analyses, and risk descriptions. the results are then evaluated. the totality of the analyses and the evaluations are referred to as risk assessments. risk assessment is followed by risk treatment, which is a

9、 process involving the development and implementation of measures to modify the risk, including measures designed to avoid, reduce (“optimize”), transfer, or retain the risk. risk transfer means sharing with another party the benefit or loss associated with a risk. it is typically affected through i

10、nsurance. risk management covers all coordinated activities in the direction and control of an organization with regard to risk.in many enterprises, the risk management tasks are divided into three main categories: strategic risk, financial risk, and operational risk. strategic risk includes aspects

11、 and factors that are important for the enterprises long-term strategy and plans, for example mergers and acquisitions, technology, competition, political conditions, legislation and regulations, and labor market. financial risk includes the enterprises financial situation, and includes: market risk

12、, associated with the costs of goods and services, foreign exchange rates and securities (shares, bonds, etc.). credit risk, associated with a debtors failure to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. liquidity risk, reflecting lack of access to cash; the difficulty of selling an asse

13、t in a timely manner. operational risk is related to conditions affecting the normal operating situation: accidental events, including failures and defects, quality deviations, natural disasters. intended acts; sabotage, disgruntled employees, etc. loss of competence, key personnel. legal circumstan

14、ces, associated for instance, with defective contracts and liability insurance.for an enterprise to become successful in its implementation of risk management, top management needs to be involved, and activities must be put into effect on many levels. some important points to ensure success are: the

15、 establishment of a strategy for risk management, i.e., the principles of how the enterprise defines and implements risk management. should one simply follow the regulatory requirements (minimal requirements), or should one be the “best in the class”? the establishment of a risk management process f

16、or the enterprise, i.e. formal processes and routines that the enterprise is to follow. the establishment of management structures, with roles and responsibilities, such that the risk analysis process becomes integrated into the organization. the implementation of analyses and support systems, such

17、as risk analysis tools, recording systems for occurrences of various types of events, etc. the communication, training, and development of a risk management culture, so that the competence, understanding, and motivation level within the organization is enhanced. given the above fundamentals of risk

18、management, the next step is to develop principles and a methodology that can be used in practical decision-making. this is not, however, straightforward. there are a number of challenges and here we address some of these: establishing an informative risk picture for the various decision alternative

19、s, using this risk picture in a decision-making context. establishing an informative risk picture means identifying appropriate risk indices and assessments of uncertainties. using the risk picture in a decision making context means the definition and application of risk acceptance criteria, cost be

20、nefit analyses and the alarp principle, which states that risk should be reduced to a level which is as low as is reasonably practicable.it is common to define and describe risks in terms of probabilities and expected values. this has, however, been challenged, since the probabilities and expected v

21、alues can camouflage uncertainties; the assigned probabilities are conditional on a number of assumptions and suppositions, and they depend on the background knowledge. uncertainties are often hidden in this background knowledge, and restricting attention to the assigned probabilities can camouflage

22、 factors that could produce surprising outcomes. by jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects are easily truncated, and potential surprises may be left unconsidered.let us, as an example, consider the risks, seen through the eyes of a risk analyst in the 1970s, associated wi

23、th future health problems for divers working on offshore petroleum projects. the analyst assigns a value to the probability that a diver would experience health problems (properly defined) during the coming 30 years due to the diving activities. let us assume that a value of 1 % was assigned, a numb

24、er based on the knowledge available at that time. there are no strong indications that the divers will experience health problems, but we know today that these probabilities led to poor predictions. many divers have experienced severe health problems (avon and vine, 2007). by restricting risk to the

25、 probability assignments alone, important aspects of uncertainty and risk are hidden. there is a lack of understanding about the underlying phenomena, but the probability assignments alone are not able to fully describe this status.several risk perspectives and definitions have been proposed in line

26、 with this realization. for example, avon (2007a, 2008a) defines risk as the two-dimensional combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties (will the events occur, what the consequences will be). a closely related perspective is suggested by avon and renan (2008a), who define risk a

27、ssociated with an activity as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of the activity, where severity refers to intensity, size, extension, scope and other potential measures of magnitude with respect to something that humans value (lives, the environment, money, etc.). losses and gains,

28、expressed for example in monetary terms or as the number of fatalities, are ways of defining the severity of the consequences. see also avon and christensen (2005).in the case of large uncertainties, risk assessments can support decision-making, but other principles, measures, and instruments are al

29、so required, such as the cautionary/precautionary principles as well as robustness and resilience strategies. an informative decision basis is needed, but it should be far more nuanced than can be obtained by a probabilistic analysis alone. this has been stressed by many researchers, e.g. apostolici

30、sm (1990) and apostolicism and lemon (2005): qualitative risk analysis (qra) results are never the sole basis for decision-making. safety- and security-related decision-making is risk-informed, not risk-based. this conclusion is not, however, justified merely by referring to the need for addressing

31、uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. the main issue here is the fact that risks need to be balanced with other concerns.when various solutions and measures are to be compared and a decision is to be made, the analysis and assessments that have been conducted provide a basis for su

32、ch a decision. in many cases, established design principles and standards provide clear guidance. compliance with such principles and standards must be among the first reference points when assessing risks. it is common thinking that risk management processes, and especially alarp processes, require

33、 formal guidelines or criteria (e.g., risk acceptance criteria and cost-effectiveness indices) to simplify the decision-making. care must; however, be shown when using this type of formal decision-making criteria, as they easily result in a mechanization of the decision-making process. such mechaniz

34、ation is unfortunate because: decision-making criteria based on risk-related numbers alone (probabilities and expected values) do not capture all the aspects of risk, costs, and benefits, no method has a precision that justifies a mechanical decision based on whether the result is over or below a nu

35、merical criterion. it is a managerial responsibility to make decisions under uncertainty, and management should be aware of the relevant risks and uncertainties.apostolicism and lemon (2005) adopt a pragmatic approach to risk analysis and risk management, acknowledging the difficulties of determinin

36、g the probabilities of an attack. ideally, they would like to implement a risk-informed procedure, based on expected values. however, since such an approach would require the use of probabilities that have not been “rigorously derived”, they see themselves forced to resort to a more pragmatic approa

37、ch.this is one possible approach when facing problems of large uncertainties. the risk analyses simply do not provide a sufficiently solid basis for the decision-making process. we argue along the same lines. there is a need for a management review and judgment process. it is necessary to see beyond

38、 the computed risk picture in the form of the probabilities and expected values. traditional quantitative risk analyses fail in this respect. we acknowledge the need for analyzing risk, but question the value added by performing traditional quantitative risk analyses in the case of large uncertainti

39、es. the arbitrariness in the numbers produced can be significant, due to the uncertainties in the estimates or as a result of the uncertainty assessments being strongly dependent on the analysts.it should be acknowledged that risk cannot be accurately expressed using probabilities and expected value

40、s. a quantitative risk analysis is in many cases better replaced by a more qualitative approach, as shown in the examples above; an approach which may be referred to as a semi-quantitative approach. quantifying risk using risk indices such as the expected number of fatalities gives an impression tha

41、t risk can be expressed in a very precise way. however, in most cases, the arbitrariness is large. in a semi-quantitative approach this is acknowledged by providing a more nuanced risk picture, which includes factors that can cause “surprises” relative to the probabilities and the expected values. q

42、uantification often requires strong simplifications and assumptions and, as a result, important factors could be ignored or given too little (or too much) weight. in a qualitative or semi-quantitative analysis, a more comprehensive risk picture can be established, taking into account underlying fact

43、ors influencing risk. in contrast to the prevailing use of quantitative risk analyses, the precision level of the risk description is in line with the accuracy of the risk analysis tools. in addition, risk quantification is very resource demanding. one needs to ask whether the resources are used in

44、the best way. we conclude that in many cases more is gained by opening up the way to a broader, more qualitative approach, which allows for considerations beyond the probabilities and expected values.the traditional quantitative risk assessments as seen for example in the nuclear and the oil & gas i

45、ndustries provide a rather narrow risk picture, through calculated probabilities and expected values, and we conclude that this approach should be used with care for problems with large uncertainties. alternative approaches highlighting the qualitative aspects are more appropriate in such cases. a b

46、road risk description is required. this is also the case in the normative ambiguity situations, as the risk characterizations provide a basis for the risk evaluation processes. the main concern is the value judgments, but they should be supported by solid scientific assessments, showing a broad risk

47、 picture. if one tries to demonstrate that it is rational to accept risk, on a scientific basis, too narrow an approach to risk has been adopted. recognizing uncertainty as a main component of risk is essential to successfully implement risk management, for cases of large uncertainties and normative

48、 ambiguity.a risk description should cover computed probabilities and expected values, as well as: sensitivities showing how the risk indices depend on the background knowledge (assumptions and suppositions); uncertainty assessments; description of the background knowledge, including models and data

49、 used.the uncertainty assessments should not be restricted to standard probabilistic analysis, as this analysis could hide important uncertainty factors. the search for quantitative, explicit approaches for expressing the uncertainties, even beyond the subjective probabilities, may seem to be a poss

50、ible way forward. however, such an approach is not recommended. trying to be precise and to accurately express what is extremely uncertain does not make sense. instead we recommend a more open qualitative approach to reveal such uncertainties. some might consider this to be less attractive from a me

51、thodological and scientific point of view. perhaps it is, but it would be more suited for solving the problem at hand, which is about the analysis and management of risk and uncertainties.source: terje aven. 2010. “risk management”. risk in technological systems, oct, p175-198.二、翻譯文章譯文：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理本章回顧和討論風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

52、管理的基本問(wèn)題和原則，包括：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受性（耐受性）、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)削減和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則、警示和預(yù)防原則，并提出了一個(gè)研究案例，說(shuō)明在實(shí)際管理環(huán)境中這些問(wèn)題和原則的重要性。這需要我們的深入研究，在此之前，讓我們簡(jiǎn)單談?wù)勶L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的一些基本特征。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目的是：在現(xiàn)時(shí)事件產(chǎn)生有害后果時(shí)，及時(shí)采取適當(dāng)?shù)拇胧┮源_保人類，環(huán)境和資產(chǎn)的安全，以及平衡人們的不同關(guān)注取向，特別是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理包括兩種措施，控制危險(xiǎn)源和減少潛在的危害。傳統(tǒng)上，諸如核能，石油和天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理主要是依靠規(guī)范監(jiān)管制度來(lái)管理的，這項(xiàng)制度對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)和操作的安排提出了系統(tǒng)性的要求。但是漸漸的，這一制度已被一項(xiàng)更加標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的制度所取代，此制度

53、是強(qiáng)調(diào)要取得的成果而不是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這些成果的手段。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化制度的一個(gè)組成部分。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不能消除，只能加以控制改善，這是被人們所公認(rèn)的。現(xiàn)在有一項(xiàng)具有巨大驅(qū)動(dòng)力和感召力的措施正應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，它將不同產(chǎn)業(yè)和社會(huì)作為一個(gè)整體來(lái)實(shí)施組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一項(xiàng)適當(dāng)?shù)拇胧?，人們?duì)于用它來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)高產(chǎn)值有很大的期望。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理包括可認(rèn)識(shí)到的實(shí)現(xiàn)增益的機(jī)會(huì)和損失的最小化，并且在它們之間實(shí)現(xiàn)適當(dāng)?shù)钠胶狻＿@是一個(gè)組織構(gòu)成良好有效的管理實(shí)踐的基本要素。這是一個(gè)由遞進(jìn)步驟組成的反復(fù)的過(guò)程，按順序進(jìn)行時(shí)，能不斷提高決策正確性并且促進(jìn)產(chǎn)值的不斷增長(zhǎng)。為了支持決策方面的設(shè)計(jì)和操作，需要進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。它們包括危害物和威脅識(shí)別，成因

54、分析，結(jié)果分析和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)描述鑒定，然后評(píng)估結(jié)果。所有的分析和評(píng)估將被作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。其次是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的處理辦法，這是一個(gè)過(guò)程，涉及開(kāi)發(fā)和實(shí)施措施來(lái)緩和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，措施包括避免，減少（“優(yōu)化”），轉(zhuǎn)移或保留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移意味著與另一方共同享有利益或承擔(dān)由于損失造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。它最典型的是受保險(xiǎn)的影響。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涵蓋了所有協(xié)調(diào)活動(dòng)的方向目標(biāo)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組織。在許多企業(yè)中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的任務(wù)分為三大類：戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括對(duì)于企業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略和計(jì)劃起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼并和收購(gòu)，技術(shù)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，政治環(huán)境，法律和法規(guī)，以及勞工市場(chǎng)。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括影響企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的因素，包括：市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，商品和服務(wù)，外匯匯率和證

55、券的相關(guān)成本（股票，債權(quán)等）；信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，與債務(wù)人沒(méi)有按照其約定的有關(guān)條款履行義務(wù)；流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，反映現(xiàn)金缺乏時(shí)，及時(shí)出售資產(chǎn)的困難。操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是有關(guān)條件影響正常工作的情況：意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，質(zhì)量差，自然災(zāi)害；預(yù)期行為，破壞，心懷不滿的雇員等；喪失競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，關(guān)鍵人員；與法律環(huán)境下相關(guān)的，例如有缺陷合同及責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)。一個(gè)企業(yè)要成功實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，需要高層管理人員參與，活動(dòng)必須落實(shí)在許多層面上。確保成功的要點(diǎn)是一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理戰(zhàn)略的確立，例如企業(yè)如何定義和實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原則。難道僅僅只需遵照監(jiān)管要求（最低要求），或追求“成為最好的”？企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程的建立，包括企業(yè)貫徹的正式流程和常規(guī)。建立管理結(jié)構(gòu)，包

56、括角色和責(zé)任分配，這樣，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程和組織融為一體。分析和支持系統(tǒng)的實(shí)施，如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)工具分析，執(zhí)行，記錄系統(tǒng)各種類型的事件的發(fā)生等。溝通，培訓(xùn)和發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理文化，這樣，組織的能力，理解和動(dòng)機(jī)水平得到增強(qiáng)。實(shí)施了上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基礎(chǔ)原則后，下一步是制定可用于實(shí)際決策中的原則和方法。然而，這并不是那么簡(jiǎn)單，還有一系列的挑戰(zhàn)，在這里我們列舉其中一些：為不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇建立一個(gè)豐富的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息平臺(tái)，將其運(yùn)用到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策環(huán)境中。這意味著正確認(rèn)識(shí)不確定因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策方面則意味著接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義和準(zhǔn)則，成本效益分析和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)該降低到實(shí)際合理的最低水平。定義和描述關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和預(yù)期性

57、價(jià)值是常見(jiàn)的現(xiàn)象。然而，這受到了挑戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)楦怕屎皖A(yù)期值的不確定性是隱蔽的。概率的分配都是有條件的基于數(shù)量的簡(jiǎn)單假設(shè)和推測(cè)，他們依據(jù)的是背景知識(shí)。不確定性往往是隱藏在這個(gè)背景知識(shí)后面，注意限制性是由于給定的概率而產(chǎn)生的，這些因素的隱蔽性可能產(chǎn)生令人驚訝的結(jié)果。直接考慮到了重要的不確定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潛在的驚喜可能會(huì)是你不曾考慮到的。讓我們舉一個(gè)例子，通過(guò)20世紀(jì)70年代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師分析海上石油項(xiàng)目工作的有關(guān)潛水員未來(lái)健康的問(wèn)題來(lái)考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該分析師對(duì)潛水員在未來(lái)30年中將經(jīng)歷的由于潛水活動(dòng)而產(chǎn)生的健康問(wèn)題（正確的定義）分配一個(gè)價(jià)值概率。讓我們假設(shè)1%的價(jià)值被分配，以當(dāng)時(shí)的知識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)是合適

58、的。沒(méi)有強(qiáng)烈的跡象表明潛水員會(huì)遇到健康問(wèn)題，但在今天我們知道這些概率導(dǎo)致了較少的預(yù)測(cè)。許多潛水員們已出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的健康問(wèn)題（avon和vine，2007）。通過(guò)限制單獨(dú)作業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率，不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要方面被隱藏了。由于對(duì)深層次的現(xiàn)象缺乏了解，單獨(dú)作業(yè)的概率不能充分描述這種狀態(tài)。一些危險(xiǎn)的觀點(diǎn)和定義已被提出并且已被證實(shí)符合這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)。例如，avon（2007a，2008a）把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為事件/后果和相關(guān)不確定性的二維組合（將發(fā)生的事件，后果將是什么）。avon和renan（2008a）建議從一個(gè)密切相關(guān)的角度將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為有關(guān)不確定性活動(dòng)及其產(chǎn)生的嚴(yán)重后果，其嚴(yán)重性是指強(qiáng)度，大小，擴(kuò)展，范圍和其他潛在的關(guān)于人類價(jià)值（生活，環(huán)境，金錢等）的大小措施。損失和收益，例如以貨幣形式或死亡人數(shù)表