《工程力學(xué)A》課程教學(xué)大綱Title[高教課堂]

1、1 COMPARABILITY OF SAVING AND PROFIT RATIOS OECD National Accounts Experts Meeting Chateau de la Muette, Paris 7-10 October 2003 汽車防盜器 http:/ 1教育教學(xué) 2 Background nDiscussion of alternative household saving measures at October 2002 NAEM nECB/OECD project Detailed examination of institutional sector ac

2、counts for the euro area, the United States and Japan with particular emphasis on household saving ratios, profit ratios and investment ratios nScope of this paper Household saving ratios Profit ratios 2教育教學(xué) 3 Household saving ratios nIssues relating to the basic measure of the household saving rati

3、o Gross or net? Include NPISH? Change in net equity of households on pension funds Adjusted household disposable income nProposed definition for use in OECD Statistical Databases (including Annex Table 24 of Economic Outlook) nFurther adjustments to the household saving ratio 3教育教學(xué) 4 Statistical Ann

4、ex Table 24, OECD Economic Outlook nReproduced as Table 1 - shows household saving ratios for 21 member countries nFootnotes to this table indicate differences in the data currently being published for various countries nOECD Economics Department tends to use measures for the household saving ratio

5、and other variables that will be readily recognised in the member countries Hence what is published by member countries in their own national accounts has an effect on international comparability 4教育教學(xué) 5 Gross or net household saving nNet is the preferred measure nOnly use gross if COFC estimates ar

6、e deficient nData for 7 countries is currently shown gross nRecommendation 1: It is recommended that the seven countries (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) include household saving ratios in their national accounts publications on a net basis instead of, o

7、r in addition to, the gross measures. 5教育教學(xué) 6 Include NPISH nData for 5 countries currently exclude NPISH nRecommendation 2: In the interests of international comparability it is recommended that the five countries (Czech Republic, Finland, France, Japan and New Zealand) also include household savin

8、g ratios for households including NPISH in their national accounts publications. 6教育教學(xué) 7 Change in net equity of households on pension funds nCurrent definition: B8 / (B6 + D8) Where B8 = Net household saving B6 = Net household disposable income D8 = Change in net equity of households on pension fun

9、ds nTable 2 provides household saving ratios using this formula and data from the OECD annual SNA93 database nRecommendation 3: It is recommended that countries that have a non-nil value for the adjustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds (D8) should verify that their own savi

10、ng ratios are consistent with this definition. 7教育教學(xué) 8 Adjusted household disposable income nNew concepts introduced in SNA93 Collective and individual consumption for general government Social transfers in kind Actual final consumption Adjusted household disposable income nNew account in SNA93 Use

11、of adjusted disposable income account nThese enable a more internationally comparable household saving ratio to be computed 8教育教學(xué) 9 Adjusted household disposable income (cont) nNet household saving (B8) / Net adjusted household disposable income (B7) + Adjustment for the change in equity of househol

12、ds on pension funds (D8) nTable 3 provides household saving ratios for member countries using this definition and using data from the OECD annual SNA93 database. nTable 4 shows the differences between this measure and the current measure for the household saving ratio shown in Table 2. 9教育教學(xué) 10 Prop

13、osed definition for the household saving ratio nRecommendation 4: The household saving ratio for inclusion in OECD Statistical Databases (including Annex Table 24 of the OECD Economic Outlook) should be defined as follows: Net household saving (B8) / Net adjusted household disposable income (B7) + A

14、djustment for the change in equity of households on pension funds (D8) nThe ratio should be calculated including NPISH for the present. 10教育教學(xué) 11 Proposed definition for the household saving ratio (cont) nIt is also recommended that countries publish this measure of household saving in their own nat

15、ional accounts publications in addition to the traditional measure. nQuestion: Are those countries that publish quarterly household saving ratios able to provide estimates for individual consumption for general government on a quarterly basis? 11教育教學(xué) 12 Adjustments to the household saving ratio nCap

16、ital gains taxes nDirect taxes versus taxes on production and imports nReal net interest payments for households nHousehold durables nPotential and realised capital gains/losses nOther issues regarding pensions nTreatment of unincorporated enterprises nFinancial accounts measure 12教育教學(xué) 13 Adjustment

17、s to the household saving ratio (cont) nStatistics Directorate is working towards alternative saving measures nNeed to recognise the limitations of some of the proposed adjustments since it cannot be assumed that the economic behaviour of households would be unaffected if different institutional arr

18、angements actually existed in particular countries. 13教育教學(xué) 14 Capital gains taxes nProposed adjustment Treat capital gains taxes as capital transfers rather than current transfers Add back capital gains taxes to household saving and household disposable income nOECD paper to be discussed under agend

19、a item 29 Seems unlikely that a change in SNA93 will be recommended to the ISWGNA nItem for capital gains taxes added to Table 900 14教育教學(xué) 15 Direct taxes versus taxes on production and imports nSaving is not affected by the mix of these taxes but household disposable income is nHow adjust? Replace t

20、axes on production etc by income taxes Replace income taxes by taxes on production etc Use a standard mix of taxes for all countries nSuggest the first of these alternatives Deduct taxes on production etc from HDI nIssues Taxes on production etc or taxes on products? Net of subsidies? 15教育教學(xué) 16 Dire

21、ct taxes versus taxes on production and imports (cont) nIssues (cont) How much is attributable to actual final consumption? Some of the production taxes could be replaced by income taxes on corporations rather than all on households nDifficult to estimate what part of taxes on production is attribut

22、able to actual final consumption nNo reason to ignore subsidies nTherefore, propose using taxes on products less subsidies on products as a rough approximation nTable 5 (adjusted ratios) and Table 6 (differences) 16教育教學(xué) 17 Real net interest payments for households nAdjustment for the effect of infla

23、tion on interest rates and interest flows nNeutral interest nReal interest = Nominal interest - neutral interest nOnly include real interest flows when deriving household saving and HDI, therefore need to Deduct neutral interest on assets Add neutral interest on liabilities nAssets used for adjustme

24、nt should include assets held on households behalf by pension funds, life insurance corporations and mutual funds etc 17教育教學(xué) 18 Household durables nHouseholds regard consumer durables as assets nRental equivalence approach could be used to derive alternative estimates in satellite accounts However,

25、rental markets for long term use of consumer durables may not be well developed Therefore, if we assume no operating surplus is generated from consumer durables an approximate adjustment is to subtract expenditure on durables from, and add consumption of fixed capital on durables to, HFCE Consequent

26、ly, household saving would be increased by net investment in consumer durables 18教育教學(xué) 19 Household durables (cont) nOECD and Eurostat are discussing proposals for additional data collection regarding household durables and dwellings COFC for household durables, Capital stock for dwellings and househ

27、old durables, Capital gains/losses on dwellings nRecommendation 5: Countries are encouraged to compile separate estimates of household final consumption expenditure, capital stock and consumption of fixed capital for consumer durables. 19教育教學(xué) 20 Capital gains and losses nHave a significant impact on

28、 wealth and consumption of households but are not included in household income in SNA93 nPotential versus realised capital gains Different impact on consumption than income from production or transfers Impact may be different for realised as opposed to potential capital gains Nominal or real capital

29、 gains? 20教育教學(xué) 21 Capital gains and losses (cont) nRecommendation 6: Rather than adjusting the household saving ratio for capital gains/losses directly, it is recommended that capital gains/losses be used as an additional explanatory variable when analysing household consumption behaviour. 21教育教學(xué) 22

30、 Pensions nDefined benefit schemes Problem of under or over funding nUnfunded pension schemes Actual pensions do not match accruing liabilities for these schemes nSocial security versus private pension schemes Different institutional arrangements contribute to observed differences in household savin

31、g ratios 22教育教學(xué) 23 Pensions nRecommendation 7: It is recommended that adjustments in relation to social security schemes should be undertaken as a special exercise and not combined with other adjustments to derive an alternative measure of the household saving ratio. The pensions EDG sponsored by th

32、e IMF provides an opportunity to resolve the problems caused by defined benefit schemes and unfunded pension schemes for public sector employees in the context of the forthcoming revision of SNA93. Anne Harrisons paper on the pensions EDG makes a valuable contribution concerning this issue. 23教育教學(xué) 2

33、4 Unincorporated enterprises nFor which countries are unincorporated enterprises that are treated as quasi-corporate quantitatively significant? nDo such countries compile estimates for compensation of employees for working proprietors in quasi-corporations or is the labour return to these working p

34、roprietors included in operating surplus? nDo such countries have separate data on the level of withdrawals from quasi-corporations or do they simply assume that all of the entrepreneurial income of quasi- corporations is transferred to households in the current period? 24教育教學(xué) 25 Financial accounts

35、measure nChange in financial position (financial account) versus Net lending (capital account) nIf all of the difference is assumed to be caused by deficiencies in income flows then can derive the following alternative measure of the household saving ratio Table 7 gives these ratios, and Table 8 sho

36、ws the difference between these ratios and those in Table 2. nObviously the differences could be caused by deficiencies in any of the items in the income, capital or financial accounts 25教育教學(xué) 26 Additional measures for the household saving ratio nAn alternative measure or a series of alternative mea

37、sures? nDo countries have a preference for whether a series of saving ratios should be compiled, each including an adjustment for one factor or whether a single alternative measure should be compiled that includes adjustments for all (or as many as possible) of the various factors simultaneously? 26

38、教育教學(xué) 27 Profit ratios nCountry practices nTypes of profit ratios nDefinitions Gross or net? Numerator Denominator for rates of return Denominator for profit share nInstitutional sector scope 27教育教學(xué) 28 Country practices nProfit ratios are presented in many different ways by member countries United Ki

39、ngdom Gross balance of primary incomes for non-financial corporations as a share of gross national income Economic Trends article containing data for 34 countries for net operating surplus over net capital stock plus inventories for non-financial corporations United States 8 ratios; 4 rate of return

40、 measures and 4 profit share measures Ratios relate to private non-financial corporations 28教育教學(xué) 29 Country practices (cont) United States (cont) Net operating surplus and net entrepreneurial income are used both before and after income tax as the numerator for each type of measure (Note: Different

41、terminology is used by BEA) Net capital stock plus inventories is used as the denominator for rate of return measures Net factor income less NOS for public corporations is used as the denominator for profit share measures Australia Gross operating surplus for financial and non-financial corporations

42、 divided by total factor income France GOS/Gross value added at basic prices for all enterprises (corporate and quasi-corporate plus unincorporated) 29教育教學(xué) 30 Types of profit ratios nRates of return Profit over capital stock Used for profitability studies nProfit shares Profit over GDP, GNI or total

43、 factor income Used for analyses of returns to labour and capital nProfit margin Profit over output Not recommended at the macro economy level 30教育教學(xué) 31 Definitions for rate of return and profit share measures nGross or net Both numerator and denominator should be net of consumption of fixed capital

44、 Use gross measure if consumption of fixed capital estimates are deficient nNumerator (for both rates of return and profit shares) Net operating surplus Independent of the extent to which borrowed funds are used Entrepreneurial income After receipts of property income and payments of interest and re

45、nt on non-produced assets used by the business 31教育教學(xué) 32 Definitions for rate of return and profit share measures (cont) nDenominator for rate of return measures Net capital stock for produced assets Including inventories? Non-produced tangible assets? Non-produced intangible assets? nDenominator fo

46、r profit share measures Net domestic product Net factor income Whole economy Institutional sector used for numerator 32教育教學(xué) 33 Institutional sector scope nNon-financial corporations nFinancial corporations nFinancial and non-financial corporations nCorporations and unincorporated enterprises Ideally mixed income should be split into a return to the labour provided by working proprietors and a return to capital nPrivate and public sub-sectors for corporations 33教育教學(xué) 34 Recommendations regarding profit ratios nProfit margin type ratios using output as the denominator should not be compiled