Argument11保護農(nóng)田和房價增高的關(guān)系.doc

1、Argument 11 保護農(nóng)田和房價增高的關(guān)系11) The council of Maple County, concerned about the countys becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new

2、housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of themeasure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago , and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adop

3、ted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago , andits housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.Write a response in whic

4、h you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.邏輯鏈M 村過度開發(fā)采取限制開發(fā)農(nóng)田措施新建房屋受限10 年前 C 村采取政15 年前 P 村采取策策-房價穩(wěn)定-

5、房價翻番M 村房價會漲Outline1.由于耕地被大量利用，所以需要出臺限制耕地的政策。council 經(jīng)過比較C 村和 P 村的經(jīng)驗，就得出M 村如果采取相同的政策，房價就會上漲。但是這樣靠譜嗎2.荒謬的是（ ridiculously ）， C、 P 兩村給出的結(jié)論完全相反，而council 卻沒有給出的但是沒有給出推理過程，直接判斷M 村的結(jié)果?？赡躢ouncil 覺得 M 村的情況更像P 村，但是Council 的說法要想更服眾，需要回答很多問題。a) Survey 的可靠性（ reliable ） ,信息的來源是什么，道聽途說（grapevine）還是由當(dāng)?shù)氐?council 提供的調(diào)

6、查數(shù)據(jù)？如果是道聽途說、不客觀， not convincing 、即便是、整個地區(qū)的房價，還是一小片城中心或者偏遠的地區(qū)的房價。b) 不可比（ not comparable）：i. 時間上， 10 年前，可能居住人口少，可居住面積大，所以實行，影響不大ii.地域上，可能P 村挨著一個大城市，隨著城市的發(fā)展，市民選擇在P 村安家，所以導(dǎo)致P 村房價大幅上漲。同時，三地的人口密度和交通情況，經(jīng)濟狀況都不清楚，所以未回答這些問題之前，比較是沒有意義的。c)限制農(nóng)田一定會使新建房屋受限嗎？可建房屋的非耕地面積是多說并未給出，還有可以拆掉那些廢棄的建筑。同時，可以建設(shè)小區(qū)，提高居住密度（resident

7、ialdensity），房價不一定會提高4.總之，由于 council 缺乏很多關(guān)于M ，C，P 的具體信息， 盲目的比較是沒有意義的。同時，缺少關(guān)于M 村具體的可居住地使用情況，未能證實限制農(nóng)田一定會使新建房屋受限。在回答這些問題之前，council 作出的決定都是不明智的（imprudent ），假設(shè)也是站不住腳的（ untenable）Facing the farmland increased day by day, the council of Maple county had been considering to enact the policy of restriction. A

8、fter compared the two countries, the council made a conclusion that the proposed measure will result in a significant increase in housing price. However, is it reliable that the council rashly made the conclusion?Ridiculously, the two country, enacted the same policy, received quite different result

9、s. But the council presumptuous made the conclusion without rational reasoning. Maybe, the situation of Maple country more incline to the Pine country, but the council fail to give the cogent evidences. To make a more convincing conclusion, the council needs to answer more questions.In the first pla

10、ce, how to identify the overdeveloped . It is far to convincing that the conclusion just comes from the local councils consideration. Many farmland of Maple were utilized for development. It may do harm to the local economy once stop developing rashly. Thecouncil should refer to the relevant standar

11、d rather than determine presumptuously.In the second place, the survey about the two countries is not reliable. At the first, the source of the survey is questionable. Where is the information from, just from grapevine or survey date offered the local relevant ministries? Dose the survey data come f

12、rom the whole region or just from the a small area? As we know, there is a world of different about house price between the central of the town and remote area. Besides, the particular situation of the three countries is so obscure that comparing is not rational, in two aspects: time and location. A

13、t first, 10 years ago, perhaps the habitable area is large while the population is small. Thus, the policy of restriction had sight effect to house price. At second, the Pine country may be adjacent to a metropolitan, which citizen began to migrate to Pine country, which surely increase the local ho

14、using price. Besides, the particular situation, such as economic level, traffic and density of the population, is unknown. Hence, it is nonsense to compare with each other among the three countries if we have no these key information.Finally, would the supply of new housing definitely be limited whe

15、n the policy of restriction was enacted? The council fail to given the area of the uncultivated land where can be build new houses. Furthermore, the desert buildings can be cleared, which are the perfect place to build. Additionally, developing a residential quarter may be a good idea to concentrate the resident, which can significantly spare the habitable area.In summary, due to lacking many substantial evidences about the three countries, it is nonsense to compare them blindly. Similarly, the council fails to attest the statement that thesupply of new housing w