電大金融理論前沿課題網(wǎng)上第十次作業(yè)

1、專業(yè)好文檔菲利普斯曲線在我國現(xiàn)階段的應(yīng)用前景”1、說明什么是菲利普斯曲線，最好引用經(jīng)典的經(jīng)濟(jì)專家學(xué)者的有關(guān)論述；答：菲利普斯曲線是一種表明失業(yè)與通貨膨脹存在一種交替關(guān)系的曲線，通貨膨脹率高時(shí)，失業(yè)率低；通貨膨脹率低時(shí)，失業(yè)率高。由新西蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家w菲利普斯于1958年在18611957年英國失業(yè)和貨幣工資變動率之間的關(guān)系一文中最先提出。2、簡要說明菲利普斯曲線的發(fā)展演變過程，以進(jìn)一步加深對相關(guān)理論的論述；答：第一種形態(tài)我們稱之為原始的菲利普斯曲線。1958年，英國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家菲利普斯（a. w. phillips）利用英國1861-1957年近百年的歷史資料，經(jīng)驗(yàn)地推斷在貨幣工資變動與失業(yè)之間存在著

2、一種穩(wěn)定的負(fù)值關(guān)系，并利用圖形表示了出來。1960年，美國著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家薩繆爾森和索洛在菲利普斯研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，使用通貨膨脹率代替工資變動率來描述通脹率與失業(yè)率之間存在彼消此長的相互關(guān)系，并證明美國也存在類似的菲利普斯曲線。第二種形態(tài)是擴(kuò)展的菲利普斯曲線。1967年和1968年費(fèi)爾普斯）和弗里德曼相繼提出在存在通貨膨脹預(yù)期的作用下，短期菲利普斯曲線是不穩(wěn)定的，會由于宏觀政策的作用會發(fā)生移動。但長期而言，由于存在“自然失業(yè)率”，菲利普斯曲線是垂直的。 第三種形態(tài)表現(xiàn)為奧肯定律。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家奧肯根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料估算，由于降低失業(yè)率而帶來的實(shí)際gdp的增加數(shù)額，結(jié)果產(chǎn)生了著名的奧肯定律。按照奧肯定律，國

3、內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（gdp）增長比潛在gdp增長每快2，失業(yè)率下降1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。奧肯又將通貨膨脹率與失業(yè)率的替換關(guān)系演變成了gdp與失業(yè)率的替換關(guān)系。3、結(jié)合實(shí)際進(jìn)行闡述，試分析我國存在菲利普斯曲線嗎？并說明菲利普斯曲線在貨幣政策中的應(yīng)用；我國同樣存在菲利普斯曲線，其在貨幣政策中的應(yīng)用有：（1）通貨膨脹與失業(yè)兩者之間短期內(nèi)的替代關(guān)系取決于公眾對通貨膨脹的預(yù)期。當(dāng)偏離公眾預(yù)期時(shí)，貨幣政策對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響最大。但是，如果中央銀行為了系統(tǒng)地增加實(shí)際產(chǎn)出而不斷地試圖偏離公眾預(yù)期，則公眾預(yù)期一定會隨之改變。因此公眾預(yù)期與中央銀行以往的業(yè)績密切相關(guān)。（2）中央銀行的信譽(yù)度有助于以較低成本恢復(fù)到理想水平。如果公眾不確

4、定什么規(guī)則能夠最恰當(dāng)?shù)孛枋鲋醒脬y行的行為，則他們會盡力從觀察到的中央銀行實(shí)際行為進(jìn)行學(xué)習(xí)。對中央銀行政策的不確定性，或?qū)ζ涞屯ㄘ浥蛎洺兄Z的懷疑，會增加去通貨膨脹的成本。也就是說，通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間短期的關(guān)系取決于公眾對貨幣政策和通貨膨脹的長期預(yù)期。（3）中央銀行在實(shí)施貨幣政策時(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)明確目標(biāo)，必須避免貨幣政策本身成為一種沖擊。另外應(yīng)當(dāng)在立法層次上強(qiáng)調(diào)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的重要性，以及在貨幣政策決策時(shí)采取透明的方式。這些都有助于中央銀行“信譽(yù)”的建立，也會有助于在制度層面上穩(wěn)定私人部門的預(yù)期。四、在明確目標(biāo)明的基礎(chǔ)上，中央銀行還應(yīng)當(dāng)綜合分析各種因素。由于通貨膨脹是各種復(fù)雜因素相互作用的結(jié)果，因此不能僅僅依靠單

5、一經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的對應(yīng)關(guān)系來進(jìn)行決。4、試對菲利普斯在我國貨幣政策中的應(yīng)用提出建議。（1）我國存在菲利普斯曲線體現(xiàn)的通脹率與失業(yè)率的替代關(guān)系。根據(jù)上面的分析可以看到，在我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策調(diào)整幅度較小、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境較為穩(wěn)定的時(shí)期，存在著較為明顯的菲利普斯曲線關(guān)系。模型檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果亦是如此。在經(jīng)濟(jì)波動較小的年份，曲線的擬合度較好，通貨膨脹率與失業(yè)率之間的替代關(guān)系較為明顯。分段擬合的曲線模型顯示，后一周期的曲線斜率高于前一周期，相同的失業(yè)率水平下需要保持高于上一周期的通貨膨脹率與之相應(yīng)，即欲創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會需要付出較前幾輪更高通貨膨脹率的代價(jià)。這是新經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變帶給我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會難題，也使得我國本來就非常嚴(yán)峻的

6、就業(yè)壓力更加緊張。（2）短期的菲利普斯曲線失靈具有時(shí)代特殊性市場機(jī)制不完善，國家干預(yù)較強(qiáng)改革開放之初，國家政策因素對曲線的走向干擾較強(qiáng)，因此1979-1980年我國菲利普斯曲線的走向了發(fā)生較大程度的變形。轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的大幅調(diào)整我國從上世紀(jì)80年代大力發(fā)展高投入、低產(chǎn)出、高損耗、低效率的粗放型產(chǎn)業(yè)到90年代末向集約型產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變，逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的全面升級，并且加大了對綠色環(huán)保、能源節(jié)約等產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展可持續(xù)性的關(guān)注程度，控制了高消耗低產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。（3）我國菲利普斯曲線短期與長期走勢相輔相成、相互影響 政策建議（1）保持適度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長以緩解嚴(yán)重的就業(yè)壓力 1997年以來，我國通貨膨脹水平一直處在5%的警

7、戒線之下，甚至出現(xiàn)了通貨緊縮的現(xiàn)象，雖然近年又有上升趨向，始終沒有大的波動出現(xiàn)。這主要是與我國宏觀調(diào)控手段的多樣化和日漸成熟的政策搭配相關(guān)的。 1991年以來我國失業(yè)率一直處于上升之中。隱性失業(yè)排放的繼續(xù)、農(nóng)民工進(jìn)城規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大等必然造成更大的就業(yè)壓力。因此我們認(rèn)為現(xiàn)階段應(yīng)該保持適度的通貨膨脹率和穩(wěn)定高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，以創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會。（2）大力發(fā)展集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè) 大力發(fā)展集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè)，以降低菲利普斯曲線在新一輪的斜率。根據(jù)我們所建立的我國菲利普斯曲線的走向模型可以看出，我國菲利普斯曲線走向的斜率是大于前一周期的，這代表著欲降低相同水平的失業(yè)率，后一周期必須付出高于上一周期的通脹率與

8、之對應(yīng)。因此，國家政策的調(diào)整應(yīng)該考慮如何降低下一輪曲線的斜率，以使得相同通脹率的同時(shí)帶來更多的失業(yè)率下降。我們認(rèn)為，應(yīng)該在大力發(fā)展現(xiàn)代化產(chǎn)業(yè)的同時(shí)，鼓勵和扶持集約型勞動密集產(chǎn)業(yè)，這樣，在獲得產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的同時(shí)，可以創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會。（3）繼續(xù)進(jìn)行有效的財(cái)政和貨幣政策干預(yù) 從我國19982002年刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)方案和2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)啟動方案來看，短期和長期菲利普斯曲線中失業(yè)與通貨膨脹確實(shí)存在替代關(guān)系，證明我國政策干預(yù)是有效的。菲利普斯曲線在我國現(xiàn)階段的應(yīng)用前景。if we dont do that it will go on and go on. we have to stop it; we need

9、 the courage to do it.his comments came hours after fifa vice-president jeffrey webb - also in london for the fas celebrations - said he wanted to meet ivory coast international toure to discuss his complaint.cska general director roman babaev says the matter has been exaggerated by the ivorian and

10、the british media.blatter, 77, said: it has been decided by the fifa congress that it is a nonsense for racism to be dealt with with fines. you can always find money from somebody to pay them.it is a nonsense to have matches played without spectators because it is against the spirit of football and

11、against the visiting team. it is all nonsense.we can do something better to fight racism and discrimination.this is one of the villains we have today in our game. but it is only with harsh sanctions that racism and discrimination can be washed out of football.the (lack of) air up there watch mcayman

12、 islands-based webb, the head of fifas anti-racism taskforce, is in london for the football associations 150th anniversary celebrations and will attend citys premier league match at chelsea on sunday.i am going to be at the match tomorrow and i have asked to meet yaya toure, he told bbc sport.for me

13、 its about how he felt and i would like to speak to him first to find out what his experience was.uefa hasopened disciplinary proceedings against cskafor the racist behaviour of their fans duringcitys 2-1 win.michel platini, president of european footballs governing body, has also ordered an immedia

14、te investigation into the referees actions.cska said they were surprised and disappointed by toures complaint. in a statement the russian side added: we found no racist insults from fans of cska.baumgartner the disappointing news: mission aborted.the supersonic descent could happen as early as sunda

15、.the weather plays an important role in this mission. starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. the balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere)

16、where our day-to-day weather lives. it will climb higher than the tip of mount everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. as he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause),

17、e can expect a lot of turbulence.the balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet ( then, i would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resembling an olympic diving platform.below, the earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not t

18、oo hard. still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. it will be like he is diving into the shallow end.skydiver preps for the big jumpwhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to earth. but this will not be enough to stop him completely.if he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabil