EMERGINGMARKETCORPORATESTOPPICKSUPDATE1128

1、creditglobalmarketsresearchemergingmarketsglobal27 november 2012emerging market corporatestop picks updatetop-picks update for gem corporates and banksus markets have been less than fully active over the last week due tothanksgiving and this has resulted in certain gaps in bond pricing and affected

2、thenew issues market activity throughout this time. therefore we have not refreshedany of our usual relative value monitors. on the other hand, as 3q12 earningsseason has largely exhausted itself, we believe it would be worthwhile to producean abridged version of our em corporate weekly publication

3、providing an updateof the top picks across gem. in the following pages investors would find themost up-to-date list of our top buy and sell recommendations together with theinvestment rationales and pertinent risks.main changes to our top picks wowmost of the changes in the list of buy and sell pick

4、s are concentrated in ceemea.for latam the only change is the removal of brasil foods curve from our top selllist. in ceemea, we had no changes amongst the ig bonds. in hy universe wehave added avangards 10% note due 2015 and removed both of halyks bondsdue in 2013 from the buy list. at the same tim

5、e we added halyks bonds due in2017 and 2021 to our top sell picks. please refer to pages 3-8 for the full list ofrecommendations, risks and rationales. in asia we have a new addition to top buyselection tencent bonds due in 2016 and 2018.bond performance monitoras a high level recap of market activi

6、ty, below we provide a bond performancemonitor chart that captures top/bottom 20 ceemea and latam bonds that havehad the best/worst performance wow in terms of total returns.figure 1: latam and ceemea weekly out-/underperformersmarket updateresearch teamviacheslav shilin, mbaresearch analyst(+44) 20

7、 754-denis parisienresearch analyst(+1) 212 250-tala boulosresearch analyst(+44) 20 754-natalia corfieldresearch analyst(+1) 212 gene cheonresearch analyst(+65) colin tan, cfaresearch analyst(+852) 2203 devinda paranathanthriresearch analyst(+65) jacphanie cheungresearch analyst(+852) 2203 outperfor

8、mersunderperformersaxtel 9.0 19axtel 7.625 17pdvsa 5.125 16maxtel 11.0 14citkie 9.375 16alpeka 4.5 22zhmnkz 7.125 19gol 7.5 17pdvsa 5.5 37pdvsa 8.5 17nqgogco 6.25 19jafzsk 7.0 19valebz 5.625 42banbra 5.875 22 subvotora 6.625 19findep 10.0 15oascbz 8.25 22bhip 9.75 16galiar 9.0 17angsj 5.125 2216.41%

9、14.81%3.23%2.52%2.26%1.94%1.93%1.92%1.9%1.72%1.53%1.49%1.48%1.47%1.39%1.39%1.38%1.36%1.35%1.32%precn 8.75 16arco 7.5 19bcobmg 8.875 20 submendoz 5.5 18bcobmg 9.625 17paname 7.875 21brsrbz 7.375 22 subaeroar 10.75 20bcobmg 8.0 18marfri 9.625 16bueair 12.5 15bueair 9.95 17irsaar 11.5 20ednar 9.75 22bu

10、enos 11.75 15buenos 10.875 21marfri 8.375 18galiar 8.75 18buenos 9.375 18marfri 9.5 20-1.41%-1.48%-1.61%-1.94%-1.99%-1.99%-2.28%-2.35%-2.52%-2.94%-3%-3.43%-4.08%-4.25%-4.84%-4.99%-5.41%-5.97%-6.7%-7.11%source: deutsche bankdeutsche bank ag/londondisclosures and analyst certifications are located in

11、appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012.27 november 2012page 2emerging market corporatestable of contentstop picks . 3our preferred buy and sell recommendations . 3rationale and risks to our recommendations . 5deutsche bank ag/london27 november 2012emerging market corporatestop picksour preferred buy and se

12、ll recommendationsfigure 2: summary of top-picks high grade26-nov-12ch. pricech. spreadb o ndi s s uer c red itissuerbbg tic kerbond ra t ingsbond det a ilsmid-pricespreadyieldw oww owrec omm.o ut looktencnt103.8109.7114.925826629420-0.5-0.40.1196source: deutsche bank.figure 3: summary of

13、top-picks high-yield26-nov-12ch. p r ic ech. s pr ea db o ndi s s uer c red itissuerbbg tic kerbond ra t ingsbond det a ilsmid-p r ic es pr ea dyieldw oww owrec omm.o ut look95.5107.9100.393267869-74-59-59source: deutsche bank.deutsche bank ag/londonpage 327 november 2012emerging

14、 market corporatesfigure 4: summary of sell recommendations high grade26-nov-12ch. pricech. spreadb o ndi s s uer c red itissuerbbg tic kerbond ra t ingsbond det a ilsmid-pricespreadyieldw oww owrec om m .o ut looksource: deutsche bankfigure 5: summary of sell recommendations high yield26-nov-12ch.

15、p r ic ech. s pr ea db o ndi s s uer c red itissuerbbg tic kerbond ra t ingsbond det a ilsmid-p r ic es pr ea dyieldw oww owrec om m .o ut looksource: deutsche bankpage 4deutsche bank ag/london27 november 2012emerging market corporatesrationale and risks to our recommendationsfigure 6: rationale and

16、 risks factors to our recommendationssource: deutsche bankdeutsche bank ag/londonpage 527 november 2012emerging market corporatesfigure 7: rationale and risks factors to our recommendations (cont.)source: deutsche bankpage 6deutsche bank ag/london27 november 2012emerging market corporatesfigure 8: r

17、ationale and risks factors to our recommendations (cont.)source: deutsche bankdeutsche bank ag/londonpage 727 november 2012emerging market corporatesfigure 9: rationale and risks factors to our recommendations (cont.)source: deutsche bankpage 8deutsche bank ag/london27 november 2012emerging market c

18、orporatesappendix 1important disclosuresadditional information available upon requestfor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on a security mentioned in this report, please seethe most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website

19、 athttp:/ certificationthis report covers more than one security and was prepared by more than one analyst. the views expressed in this reportaccurately reflect the personal views of each undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers covered by each, and thesecurities of those issuers. in addit

20、ion, the undersigned lead analysts have not and will not receive any compensation forproviding a specific recommendation or view in this report. viacheslav shilin/denis parisien/tala boulos/natalia corfield/jedevans/gene cheon/colin tan/devinda paranathanthri/jacphanie cheung/jack zhangdeutsche bank

21、 debt rating keycreditbuy (“c-b”): the total return of the referencecredit instrument (bond or cds) is expected tooutperform the credit spread of bonds / cds of otherissuers operating in similar sectors or rating categoriesover the next six months.credithold (“c-h”): the credit spread of thereferenc

22、e credit instrument (bond or cds) is expectedto perform in line with the credit spread of bonds / cdsof other issuers operating in similar sectors or ratingcategories over the next six months.creditsell (“c-s”): the credit spread of the referencecredit instrument (bond or cds) is expected tounderper

23、form the credit spread of bonds / cds of otherissuers operating in similar sectors or rating categoriesover the next six months.creditnorec (“c-nr”): we have not assigned arecommendation to this issuer. any references tovaluation are based on an issuers credit rating.reference credit instrument (“rc

24、i”): the referencecredit instrument for each issuer is selected by theanalyst as the most appropriate valuation benchmark(whether bonds or credit default swaps) and is detailedin this report. recommendations on other creditinstruments of an issuer may differ from therecommendation on the reference c

25、redit instrumentbased on an assessment of value relative to thereference credit instrument which might take intoaccount other factors such as differing covenantlanguage, coupon steps, liquidity and maturity. thereference credit instrument is subject to change, at thediscretion of the analyst.deutsch

26、e bank ag/londonpage 927 november 2012emerging market corporatesregulatory disclosures1. important additional conflict disclosuresaside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under thedisclosures lookup and legal tabs. investors are strongly encouraged t

27、o review this information before investing.2. short-term trade ideasdeutsche bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as solar ideas) that are consistentor inconsistent with deutsche banks existing longer term ratings. these trade ideas can be found at the solar l

28、ink athttp:/.3. country-specific disclosuresaustralia and new zealand: this research, and any access to it, is intended only for wholesale clients within the meaning ofthe australian corporations act and new zealand financial advisors act respectively.brazil: the views expressed above accurately ref

29、lect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) andits(their) securities, including in relation to deutsche bank. the compensation of the equity research analyst(s) is indirectlyaffected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of deutsche bank. in cases wh

30、ere at least onebrazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in the preparation of thisresearch report, the brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility for its content from abrazilian regulatory perspective and for

31、 its compliance with cvm instruction # 483.eucountries:disclosuresrelatingtoourobligationsundermifidcanbefoundathttp:/ disclosures under the financial instruments and exchange law: company name - deutsche securities inc. registrationnumber - registered as a financial instruments dealer by the head o

32、f the kanto local finance bureau (kinsho) no. 117.member of associations: jsda, type ii financial instruments firms association, the financial futures association of japan,japan investment advisers association. this report is not meant to solicit the purchase of specific financial instruments orrela

33、ted services. we may charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services.recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result ofchanges in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuati

34、ons in market value. before deciding on the purchase of financialproducts and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation.moodys, standard & poors, and fitch mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in japa

35、n unless“japan” or nippon is specifically designated in the name of the entity.malaysia: deutsche bank ag and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may fromtime to time offer those securities for purchase or may have an interest to purchase such securiti

36、es. deutsche bank mayengage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein.russia: this information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, anyappraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the russian federat

37、ion.risks to fixed income positionsmacroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to payfixed or variable interest rates. for an investor that is long fixed rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases ininterest

38、rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. the longer thematurity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. upside surprises ininflation, fiscal funding needs, and fx depreciation rates

39、 are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks toreceivers. but counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assetsholding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain

40、 currencyconversion, repatriation of profits and/or the liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses arealso important risk factors to be considered. the sensitivity of fixed income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may bemitigated by indexing the contracted ca

41、sh flows to inflation, to fx depreciation, or to specified interest rates these arecommon in emerging markets. it is important to note that the index fixings may - by construction - lag or mis-measure theactual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. the choice of the proper fix

42、ing (or metric) is particularlyimportant in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest ratereference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. it is also important to acknowledge that funding in a currency that differsfrom the currency in whic

43、h the coupons to be received are denominated carries fx risk. naturally, options on swaps(swaptions) also bear the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements.page 10deutsche bank ag/londondavid folkerts-landaumanaging directorglobal head of researchmarcel cassardglo

44、bal headcb&s researchralf hoffmann & bernhard speyerco-headsdb researchstuart parkinsonchief operating officerresearchrichard smithassociate directorequity researchprincipal locationsasia-pacificfergus lynchregional headgermanyandreas neubauerregional headamericassteve pollardregional headde

45、utsche bank aglondon1 great winchester streetlondon ec2n 2eqtel: (44) 20 7545 8000deutsche bank agnew york60 wall streetnew york, ny 10005united states of americatel: (1) 212 250-2500deutsche bank aghong kongfiliale hongkongintl. commerce centre1 austin road west kowloon,hong kongdeutsche securities

46、 inc.japan2-11-1 nagatachosanno park towerchiyoda-ku, tokyo 100-6171tel: (81) 3 5156 6770tel: (852) 2203 8888deutsche bank agfrankfurtgroe gallusstrae 10-1460272 frankfurt am maingermanytel: (49) 69 910 00deutsche bank ltd.aurora business park82 bld.2 sadovnicheskaya streetmoscow, 115035russiatel: (

47、7) 495 797-5000deutsche bank agsingaporeone raffles quaysouth towersingapore 048583tel: (65) 6423 8001deutsche bank agaustraliadeutsche bank place, level 16corner of hunter & phillip streetssydney nsw 2000tel: (61) 2 8258 1234deutsche bank dubaidubai international financial centrethe gate, west

48、wing, level 3p.o. box 504 902dubai citytel: (971) 4 3611 700publication address:deutsche bank aglondon1 great winchester streetlondon ec2n 2eqtel: (44) 20 7545 8000internet:http:/ask your usual contact for ausername and password.global disclaimeremerging markets investments (or shorter-term transact

49、ions) involve significant risk and volatility and may not be suitable for everyone. readers mustmake their own investing and trading decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specificobjectives and financial situation. when doing so, readers should

50、 be sure to make their own assessment of risks inherent to emerging marketsinvestments, including possible political and economic instability; other political risks including changes to laws and tariffs, and nationalization of assets;and currency exchange risk.deutsche bank may engage in securities

51、transactions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this researchreport. in addition, others within deutsche bank, including strategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in thisresearch report.past performance is not

52、 necessarily indicative of future results. deutsche bank may with respect to securities covered by this report, sell to or buy fromcustomers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on a proprietary basis. deutsche bank makes no representation as to theaccuracy or complete

53、ness of the information in this report. deutsche bank may buy or sell proprietary positions based on information contained in thisreport. deutsche bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof. this report is provided forinformation purposes on

54、ly. it is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy.target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst judgement. unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should beexecuted through the deutsche bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. in the u.s. this report is approved and/or distributed by deutsche banksecurities inc., a member of the nyse, the nasd, nfa and sipc. in germany this report is approved and/or communicated by deutsche bank agfrankfurt authorized by the