Roger Street, 技術指導

1、roger street, 技術指導中國適應氣候變化項目風險評估研討會中國適應氣候變化項目風險評估研討會production of user-friendly climate scenarios for impact and risk assessments用戶友好型氣候影響與風險評估情景用戶友好型氣候影響與風險評估情景 wednesday, 03rd march 20102010年3月3日星期三beijing, china中國北京towards “user-friendly” scenarios走近走近用戶友好情景用戶友好情景understanding what is and will be

2、 available earlier presentations了解現(xiàn)在及將來可用信息了解現(xiàn)在及將來可用信息之前介紹之前介紹understanding what is needed and can be delivered this presentation了解所需與可供了解所需與可供本次介紹本次介紹 requirement for informed engagement involving the providers and the users of the climate scenarios要求供應商與氣候情景用戶保持知情參與要求供應商與氣候情景用戶保持知情參與recognition th

3、at what is needed is information to inform the assessments認識到需要為評估提供信息認識到需要為評估提供信息otemporal (30-year, baseline) and spatial (what resolution?) scales o時間（時間（30-年，基點）與空間（分辨率）范圍年，基點）與空間（分辨率）范圍oaveraging periods (monthly, seasonal, other)? 平均周期（月、季、其他）？平均周期（月、季、其他）？ovariables?變量？變量？recognition that it

4、is also about accessibility (presentation) and utility (guidance)predict, optimise and relax預測、優(yōu)化與放松預測、優(yōu)化與放松focus is on the climate and projected change 聚焦氣候與預期變化聚焦氣候與預期變化often assumes that we are adapted to “today”時常假定我們是在適應時常假定我們是在適應“今天今天”follows a linear model:遵循線性模式氣候預測遵循線性模式氣候預測focus is on gett

5、ing the climate “right” uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making “徹底徹底明白明白”氣候氣候不確定因素會對決策構成障不確定因素會對決策構成障礙礙tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off awaiting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections 決策者與政策制定者有這樣一種傾向，他們會延時決決策者與政策制

6、定者有這樣一種傾向，他們會延時決策以等待更佳的氣候信息，因此，每當有新的預期出現(xiàn)，就要從頭開始。策以等待更佳的氣候信息，因此，每當有新的預期出現(xiàn)，就要從頭開始。climate projections氣候預期impacts影響adaptation適應assess, adjust and review評估、調整與回顧評估、調整與回顧focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks焦點在于認識氣候（及其他）風險焦點在于認識氣候（及其他）風險assumes that “today” may need some further adaptat

7、ion (benefits the day job) 假定假定“今天今天”就可能需要更進一步的適應就可能需要更進一步的適應 （有益于當前工作）（有益于當前工作）follows a recursive model 遵循遞歸模式遵循遞歸模式1.確定問題和目標確定問題和目標 2.確立決策標準確立決策標準 3.評估風險評估風險 4.識別可選方案識別可選方案 5.評估可選方案評估可選方案 6.決策決策 7.實施決策實施決策8.監(jiān)控監(jiān)控 uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated明確不確定因素與風

8、險，確保其得到相應關注并相互傳達明確不確定因素與風險，確保其得到相應關注并相互傳達 allows for “adjustments” as benefits and changes in risk are realised隨著風險收益的實現(xiàn)與變化的發(fā)生，要允許出現(xiàn)隨著風險收益的實現(xiàn)與變化的發(fā)生，要允許出現(xiàn)“調整調整”different information needed需要獲取多種信息需要獲取多種信息prior to using climate information need a clear understanding of the system of interest (programm

9、es, policies, systems, infrastructure, etc.):在使用氣候信息之前需對相關利益體系有一個清楚的了解（項目組、政策在使用氣候信息之前需對相關利益體系有一個清楚的了解（項目組、政策、體制、基礎設施等）、體制、基礎設施等）osensitivities, thresholds, nature of vulnerability and capacity to adapt 敏感性、準入門檻、脆弱性本質及適應能力敏感性、準入門檻、脆弱性本質及適應能力oother risks and drivers of change need for socio-economic

10、information 其他風險與變化驅動其他風險與變化驅動需要獲取社會經(jīng)濟信息需要獲取社會經(jīng)濟信息othe existing adaptation deficit historical observations and trends 現(xiàn)有適應的不足之處現(xiàn)有適應的不足之處歷來評價與歷史趨勢歷來評價與歷史趨勢this understanding will also help define the climate information needed to support the assessment這一了解同樣有助于界定可用于支持評估的氣候信息這一了解同樣有助于界定可用于支持評估的氣候信息dif

11、ferent information needed需要獲取多種信息需要獲取多種信息there is not a single best practice approach to using climate scenarios使用氣候情景的最優(yōu)方法并不唯一使用氣候情景的最優(yōu)方法并不唯一o need to understand how the scenarios can and cannot be used and consider how to exploit the scenarios for the intended purpose examples of good practice and

12、 inappropriate uses 有必要理解氣候情景在何種情況下（不）可用，有必要理解氣候情景在何種情況下（不）可用，并考慮如何達到預期使用目的并考慮如何達到預期使用目的舉例說明正反兩種情形舉例說明正反兩種情形the level of detail needed depends on the intended use key findings, maps and graphs, data and analytical tools 預計使用目的決定細節(jié)層次需求預計使用目的決定細節(jié)層次需求關鍵性結論、地圖與圖表、數(shù)據(jù)與分析工具關鍵性結論、地圖與圖表、數(shù)據(jù)與分析工具having differe

13、nt levels of detail can inform the use of the climate scenarios focus on periods/areas of particular interest從不同的細節(jié)層次可以看出氣候情景的應用從不同的細節(jié)層次可以看出氣候情景的應用關注特定的利益相關注特定的利益相關周期關周期/地域地域key findings 主要產(chǎn)出主要產(chǎn)出provide clear statements of the projected changes based on the climate scenarios 基于氣候情景，清楚表述預期變化focus on

14、climate variables or interests that are of particular interest (area, sector, or time)關注特定利益相關的氣候變量或利益體（地域、領域或時間）can introduce the uncertainty associated with different scenarios可介入與不同情景相連的不確定性因素can be used for communication and further engagement可用于溝通交流與進一步接觸examples: 例如：例如：warmer and wetter winter

15、s, with hotter and drier summers冬季冬季變暖變濕；夏季變熱變干變暖變濕；夏季變熱變干the summer mean daily maximum temperature is projected to increase from 4.8c to 8.4c, with a wider range of uncertainty of 1.2c to 10.6c.據(jù)預測，夏季日常最高溫據(jù)預測，夏季日常最高溫度將從度將從4.8c上升到上升到8.4c，如果，如果考慮更多不確定因素的話，這一考慮更多不確定因素的話，這一數(shù)字可以數(shù)字可以1.2c到到 10.6cthere is

16、a projected two-fold increase in the frequency of summer drought by the 2050s.據(jù)預測，據(jù)預測，2050年夏季干旱的發(fā)生年夏季干旱的發(fā)生頻率會增長一倍。頻率會增長一倍。maps, images and tables 地圖、圖像與表格地圖、圖像與表格provide a spatial image of the projected changes at a single time period understanding geographic areas of interest 提供預期變化在某單一時間段的空間提供預期變化

17、在某單一時間段的空間圖圖了解利益相關的地理區(qū)域了解利益相關的地理區(qū)域provide an image of the changes over time 提供歷時變化圖提供歷時變化圖can be for climate variables or derived variables (growing degree days, drought indices, etc.) 用于描述氣候變量或衍生變量（度日用于描述氣候變量或衍生變量（度日變長、干旱指數(shù)等）變長、干旱指數(shù)等）can be used to identify areas or times of interest, as well as ef

18、fective communications tools 用于識別相關地域或時間段，確定有用于識別相關地域或時間段，確定有效交流工具效交流工具need for guidance and case studies需要提供指導與個案研究需要提供指導與個案研究a reference guide on the use of the climate scenarios 指導如何使用氣候情景的參考冊指導如何使用氣候情景的參考冊an exploration of their use, including sharing lessons learned如何探索氣候情景的應用，包括共享學到的經(jīng)驗如何探索氣候情景

19、的應用，包括共享學到的經(jīng)驗an evolving resource based on experience gained and guidance added to meet evolving needs and address new climate information 不斷擴充的資源不斷擴充的資源獲取經(jīng)驗、加強指導以滿足不斷演進的需求、應對新的氣候信息獲取經(jīng)驗、加強指導以滿足不斷演進的需求、應對新的氣候信息focus on using the climate scenarios to support the assessment process one resource used al

20、ong with others as part of the assessment process 致力于用氣候情景支致力于用氣候情景支持評估進程持評估進程與其他資源一起成為評估進程的一部分與其他資源一起成為評估進程的一部分case studies depicting how the climate scenarios have been used 個案研究個案研究描述氣候情景如何應用描述氣候情景如何應用need for particular guidance that also identifies inappropriate uses 同時需要有能夠指出不當使用方法的特殊指導同時需要有能夠

21、指出不當使用方法的特殊指導accessibility 可及性可及性to meet a diverse user community滿足不同客戶群體need for online resource and hard copy 需要在線資源與硬拷貝user-provider engagement throughout用戶用戶供應商全程參與供應商全程參與informed engagement is critical to ensuring that climate scenarios are useable, fit-for-purpose, and that their use is based

22、on sound science 知情參與對于保證氣候情景的功效與合用來說十分重要，這些功知情參與對于保證氣候情景的功效與合用來說十分重要，這些功能的實現(xiàn)都基于對科學有一個良好把握能的實現(xiàn)都基于對科學有一個良好把握needed as part of scenario development, presentation and use (guidance) 氣候情景的發(fā)展、演示與使用（指導）都需要這種參與氣候情景的發(fā)展、演示與使用（指導）都需要這種參與mechanisms that have shown to be useful: 表明有效的機制：表明有效的機制：ouser-provider a

23、dvisory panel用戶用戶供應商顧問團供應商顧問團ocommunities of users specific needs and sharing experience 用戶社區(qū)用戶社區(qū)特殊需要、經(jīng)驗共享特殊需要、經(jīng)驗共享oworkshops sharing knowledge and experience/training 研討會研討會知識、經(jīng)驗共享知識、經(jīng)驗共享/培訓培訓oonline helpdesk and frequently asked questions在線幫助臺與常見問題在線幫助臺與常見問題oonline users forum 在線用戶論壇在線用戶論壇1m0m4m3m

24、2mmax water level rise:水位上漲最大值new barrier, retain thames barrier, raise defences新建堤壩、保持泰晤士水閘 、加高防御工事raise defences加筑堤壩new barrier, raise defences新建堤壩、加高防御工事new barrage新堰壩existing system現(xiàn)有系統(tǒng)improve thames barrier and raise d/s defences改進泰晤士水閘，加高d/s防御工事over-rotate thames barrier and restore interim de

25、fences過旋泰晤閘 ，重建臨時工士水事flood storage, improve thames barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences蓄洪，改進泰晤士水閘，加高u/s 與d/s防御工事flood storage, over rotate thames barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences蓄洪，過旋泰晤士水閘，加高u/s 與d/s防御工事flood storage, restore interim defences蓄洪，重建臨時防御工事fit-for-purpose now and in the future眼前合用與未來合用眼前合用與未來合用move from time-defined to risk-defined assessments由實時評估到風險評估opportunity to input輸入機會輸入機會expressing your needs for climate scenarios說出您對氣候情景的要求說出您對氣候情景的