【雙語(yǔ)閱讀】調(diào)查：決策力并非與生俱來《金融時(shí)報(bào)》

1、調(diào)查：決策力并非與生俱來金融時(shí)報(bào)good management is about nothing if not good decision making unfortunately, decisiveness has been seen as a character trait like courage: there are those who can pull the trigger 一 the great executives 一 and those who canl - the armies of wafflers who are terrified of being forced to

2、 accept the consequences of their actions.有效管理的精髓全在于優(yōu)秀的決策機(jī)制。但不幸的是，決第力被看做是一種類似 于勇氣的性格特質(zhì)。有些人就是能夠果斷扣動(dòng)扳機(jī)例如出色的經(jīng)理人；而另 一些人則做不到這一點(diǎn)這幫猶豫不決的家伙們對(duì)丁 被迫接受自己行為的后 果感到膽戰(zhàn)心驚。a new wave of social scientists, however, is upending this view by digging into the psychological and social factors that influence our decisions.

3、 by developing better processes, they hope to make decision making less like voodoo and more like carpentry然而，一些社會(huì)學(xué)家通過深入研究影響人們決策的心理和社會(huì)因素，正在顛覆上 述看法。通過研究更好的決策機(jī)制，他們希望使決策不再像巫術(shù)那樣神秘，而是 像木匠活那樣可被學(xué)習(xí)掌握。chip heath, a professor at stanford business school, and his brother dan heath, a fellow at duke university&

4、#39;s center for the advancement of social entrepreneurship, have already written two excellent books of pop social science: made to stick and switch . their latest, decisions: how to make better choices in life and work digs into the latest findings on decision making.斯坦福人(stanford)商學(xué)院教授奇普希思(chip h

5、eath)和杜克人學(xué)(duke university)社會(huì)企業(yè)發(fā)展研究中心研究員丹希思(dan heath)倆兄弟合著了兩 本出色的通俗社科書籍讓創(chuàng)意更有粘性hmade to stick)以及瞬變(switch)。 他們的最新著作決策:如何在生活和匚作屮更好抉擇(decisions: how to make better choices in life and work)深入探討了決策領(lǐng)域的最新研究成果。"being decisive is itself a choice, they write. "decisiveness is a way of behaving, no

6、t an inherited trait. it allows us to make brave and confident choices, not because we know wetl be right but because its better to try and fail than to delay and regret.他們寫道，“表現(xiàn)得堅(jiān)決果斷木身就是一種選擇。決策力是一種行為方式，而不 是一種遺傳特征。它使我們能夠做出勇敢而自信的選擇，這不是因?yàn)槲覀冎雷?己一定止確，而是因?yàn)閲L試并失敗要好過拖延和后悔。”the heaths identify four villains

7、 that obstruct good decision making: narrow framing, limiting the options we consider; the confirmation bias, our tendency to look for evidence which supports what we already think; short-term emotion, which will fade over time; and overconfidence.希思兄弟指岀了阻礙有效決策的四大因索：第一點(diǎn)是視野狹隘(narrow framing),這限制了我們納入

8、考慮的選擇范圍；第二點(diǎn)是證實(shí)傾|nj( confirmation bias),我們傾向于尋找能夠支撐自己現(xiàn)有想法的證據(jù)；第三點(diǎn)是短期情緒 (short-term emotion),它將隨著吋間逐漸消退；最后一點(diǎn)是過度自信 (overconfidence) othey lay out a four-step process called “wrap" that addresses each of the villains in turn. we must "widen our options” away from simple either/or decisions. we

9、should "reality test our assumptions, to ensure we are basing our decisions on fact rather than prejudice. we should "attain distance before deciding二 or sleep on big decisions rather than letting ourselves be carried away by the emotion of the moment. and we should "prepare to be wro

10、ng： because there is a good chance we will be.希思兄弟提出了名為“wrap"的四階段流程，依次針對(duì)解決阻礙決策的四大障 礙。我們必須“拓寬自己的選擇空間二避免非此即彼的簡(jiǎn)單決策。我們應(yīng)當(dāng)“把 自己的假想放到現(xiàn)實(shí)中檢驗(yàn)=以確保我們的決策是建立在事實(shí)而非偏見的基礎(chǔ) 上。我們述應(yīng)“在決策之前減少情緒干擾二或者在而臨重大決策時(shí)，要留出一段 時(shí)間來考慮，而不能讓自己被當(dāng)下的情緒所左右。最后我們必須做好“出錯(cuò)的準(zhǔn) 備"，因?yàn)橛泻艽罂赡芪覀兇_實(shí)會(huì)犯錯(cuò)。the heaths make a convincing case that bad dec

11、ision making is ubiquitous. take job interviews. rather than requiring candidates to perform the specific task for which we want to hire them, we sit them in a room and ask them questions about their ability to do the task. "imagine if the us olympic track coach used two tests in selecting the

12、men whod run on the 4x100 relay team. test 1: get the man on the track to see how fast he runs. and test 2: meet him in a conference room and see if he answers questions like a fast runner would；希思兄弟很有說服力地指出，糟糕的決策機(jī)制隨處可見。以招聘面試為例。當(dāng)前 的通行做法不是讓候選人嘗試執(zhí)行招聘方希望他們?nèi)肼毢舐男械木唧w任務(wù)，而是 讓候選人坐在一間屋子里，通過提問來判斷他們是否具備履行職責(zé)的能力。

13、書中 寫道，“想彖一下，假如美國(guó)奧運(yùn)會(huì)田徑隊(duì)的教練在篩選參加4x10()接力賽的隊(duì) 員時(shí)使用了兩種測(cè)試方法。其一是讓運(yùn)動(dòng)員在跑道上比賽誰(shuí)跑得更快。其二是在 一間會(huì)議室里面試運(yùn)動(dòng)員，以判斷他冋答問題的方式是否像個(gè)飛毛腿we also often decide earlier than we need to, say the heaths. what we should do, instead, is conduct small experiments to test our ideas before going in all the way.希思兄弟表示，人們還經(jīng)常過于倉(cāng)促地做出決定。而我們真正

14、應(yīng)當(dāng)做的是，在做 出決策并貫徹執(zhí)行之前進(jìn)行一些小試驗(yàn)，以檢驗(yàn)自c的想法是否正確。much of what the heaths write is echoed by francesca gino, a professor at harvard business school, in her much wonkier book, sidetracked: why our decisions get derailed, and how we can stick to the plan. she writes that if only we were more aware of the strang

15、e influences on our decisions, we could exercise more control over them.希思兄弟書中的許多觀點(diǎn)，與哈佛商學(xué)院(harvard business school)教授弗朗西 斯卡吉諾(francesca gino)的觀點(diǎn)相呼應(yīng)。吉諾在偏離：決策為何脫軌，以及 如何貫徹既定方案(sidetracked: why our decisions get derailed, and how we can stick to the plan)書中寫道，假如我們能夠意識(shí)到口身決策所受到的 各種奇怪影響，我們就能更好地掌控它們。for exa

16、mple, most of us tend to exaggerate our perceptions of our own competence and capabilities. asked to rate our own qualities, ranging from decisiomaking abilities to physical attractiveness, most of us will rate ourselves well above average. we think we're better than we are. psychological biases

17、 such as these are the bane of good decision making.例如，絕大多數(shù)人傾向于高估自身的才干和能力。如果讓我們給自己的素質(zhì)打分， 包括決策能力以及外表吸引力等多個(gè)方面，絕大多數(shù)人會(huì)認(rèn)為自身?xiàng)l件高于平均 水平。我們眼屮的自己好于我們的實(shí)際表現(xiàn)。諸如此類的心理傾向正是妨礙我們 做出止確決定的罪魁禍?zhǔn)?。similarly, we tend to follow advice we pay for more than advice we receive for free, regardless of its quality there is somethi

18、ng about having paid for it that makes us credulous, a fact exploited by high-priced consultants.相對(duì)于免費(fèi)得到的意見，我們更傾向于聽從付費(fèi)以后得到的建議，不論這些觀點(diǎn) 木身的質(zhì)量如何。為了獲得建議而付費(fèi)的行為使我們變得更加容易輕信，這一事 實(shí)被耍價(jià)高昂的咨詢師們加以利用。but once you understand these tendencies in the human mind you can take advantage of them to persuade others. hotel

19、s have found that guests will reuse their towels at a much higher rate if you tell them that other guests reuse their towels than if you simply tell them that it，s the environmentally friendly thing to do.但是一旦你理解了人類心理的這些傾向，你就可以利用它們來說服別人。賓館現(xiàn) 已發(fā)現(xiàn)，在告知賓客其他人也在重復(fù)使用毛山的情況下，毛山的使用率比僅僅提 示賓客重復(fù)使用毛|卩有利于保護(hù)環(huán)境時(shí)要高出不少

20、。we all tend to do more of what we think people like us to do, whether good or bad. in some instances, it makes perfect sense to follow the lead of others we trust and respect. but experiments have revealed the worrying truth that even the slightest perceived similarity, regardless of its relevance,

21、 can influence how we act. if we learn that someone shares our birth month or our name, we are more likely to follow their lead forging common ground, however shaky, is a trick every good salesman knows.對(duì)于我們認(rèn)為其他人希與我們會(huì)做的事情，我們總是傾向于做得更多，不論是好 事述是壞事。在某些情況下，模仿我們所信任和尊敬的人完全合理。但實(shí)驗(yàn)所揭 示出的令人擔(dān)憂的事實(shí)是，即使我們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己與他人之間

22、僅僅存在極小的相似 性，且不論與我們當(dāng)前的決策是否相關(guān)，都會(huì)影響到我們的行為方式。如果我們 發(fā)現(xiàn)某人的出生月份或者名字與我們相同，我們模仿此人行為的概率都會(huì)上升。 挖掘共同點(diǎn)，不論多么牽強(qiáng)，是每個(gè)優(yōu)秀推銷員都知道的小技巧。prof ginos solution to not getting sidetracked is, like the heaths： to depersonalise and objectify decision making we need to keep our emotions in check and constantly adjust our perspectiv

23、e by taking advice, expanding our options and taking the other party's point of view. we need to question the sources of our information and psychological biases. and we must always ask if a decision can be reframed to achieve what we want.與希思兄弟類似，吉諾教授針對(duì)決策偏差捉岀的解決方案是淡化個(gè)人色彩， 使決策過程客觀化。我們必須注意控制自己的情緒

24、，通過不斷采納他人建議來調(diào) 整我們看問題的視角，豐富我們的選擇空間，并且從當(dāng)事另一方的角度看問題。 我們需要探尋自己信息偏倚和心理偏見的根源。我們還必須不斷思考一個(gè)決策是 否能被重構(gòu)以實(shí)現(xiàn)我們的口標(biāo)。she cites the example of theodore roosevelt's campaign manager in 1912. the campaign had just printed 3m brochures featuring a photograph of roosevelt for which it hadnt obtained permission. rathe

25、r than putting himself at the mercy of the photographer, the manager sent him a telegram saying: "we are planning to distribute millions of pamphlets with roosevelt picture on the cover it will be great publicity for the studio whose photograph we use. how much will you pay us to use yours? res

26、pond immediately.n the delighted photographer replied offering $250- problem reframed, happy outcome achieved.吉諾教授舉了 1912年四奧多羅斯福(theodore roosevelt)競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人的例 子。當(dāng)時(shí)競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)印制了300萬(wàn)份附冇一張羅斯福照片的手冊(cè)，但這張照片本身 卻未獲得攝影師授權(quán)。負(fù)責(zé)人沒有把自己放在聽?wèi){攝影師擺布的地位，而是給對(duì) 方發(fā)去了一封電報(bào)，聲稱：“我們計(jì)劃發(fā)放幾百萬(wàn)份封面印有羅斯福照片的小冊(cè) 子。對(duì)于入選圖片的工作室而言，這將是一個(gè)提高知名度的大好機(jī)會(huì)。如果

27、我們 選擇你所拍攝的照片，你愿意付給我們多少錢？請(qǐng)盡快冋復(fù)。興高采烈的攝影 師回電表示愿意支付250美元。問題經(jīng)過了重構(gòu)，并得到了圓滿的結(jié)果。dennis bakke, cofounder of imagine schools and former ceo of the power company aes, sees the devolution of decision making as a powerful managerial tool. all too often executives hog decision making because they feel it is what j

28、ustifies their status and salaries but in his new business novel the decision maker, he argues for letting more people up and down the company make decisions.丹尼斯巴基(dennis bakke)是imagine schools的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人以及美國(guó)愛依斯 電力公司(aes)的前任首席執(zhí)行官。巴基認(rèn)為，決策權(quán)的下放是一種很有力的管 理方法。絕大多數(shù)時(shí)候管理層都把決策權(quán)牢牢攥在手屮，因?yàn)樗麄冇X得這樣才與 口己的地位和薪酬水平相符。但在他最新的

29、商業(yè)小說決策者(the decision maker)*p，他指出應(yīng)讓公司上下更多的人參與到?jīng)Q策過程屮來。the setting for his book is an old school manufacturing company. the business is staggering along, its workers joylessly going about their work. when the new managers install a pinball machine to boost morale, the employees snigger.巴基將小說的背景設(shè)在一家老式制

30、造企業(yè)。公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況僅夠勉強(qiáng)維持，工人 們對(duì)自己的工作感到毫無樂趣。當(dāng)新任管理層安裝了一臺(tái)彈珠游戲機(jī)以提升士氣 時(shí)，雇員們紛紛暗屮偷笑。the managers then decide on a radical solution: to give up their decision making power and introduce what mr bakke calls the "decision maker process. first, the leader of an organisation must decide who is to make a decision.

31、the decision maker must be someone close to the issue and aware of the context. if it is to do with a manufacturing process, it should be someone who handles that process every day, not some lofty executive who never visits the factory floor新任管理層隨后決定采取一項(xiàng)大膽舉措：放棄自身的決策權(quán)，并引入被巴基稱為 是“決策者流程叩勺機(jī)制。按照該流程，當(dāng)一個(gè)問題岀現(xiàn)時(shí)，一家機(jī)構(gòu)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人必 須首先決定將由誰(shuí)來做出決策。所選的“決策者”必須是熟悉該問題并且了解其背 景的人。如果問題與某個(gè)制造環(huán)節(jié)冇關(guān)，那么決策者就應(yīng)是每天與該環(huán)節(jié)打交道 的人，而非某位從不下到主產(chǎn)車間的高高在上的經(jīng)理。the decis