中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展問(wèn)題與展望要點(diǎn)

1、中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展：?jiǎn)栴}與展望專(zhuān)業(yè)名稱(chēng)：企業(yè)管理研究方向：第三產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理申請(qǐng)人姓名：魏作磊指導(dǎo)教師：李江帆教授答辯日期 2005年6月7日摘 要本文首先通過(guò)截面數(shù)據(jù)和時(shí)序數(shù)據(jù)的跨國(guó)分析重新考查了配第一克拉克定 律，結(jié)果表明：服務(wù)業(yè)增加值比重隨人均收入水平提高的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)并不是一成不 變的；就目前世界各國(guó)的截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，服務(wù)業(yè)增加值比重的穩(wěn)定上升出現(xiàn)在人 均GDRg過(guò)1000美元之后；就歷史數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，服務(wù)業(yè)增加值比重的穩(wěn)定上升在 工業(yè)化完成之后表現(xiàn)得更為明顯。這一變化態(tài)勢(shì)是由居民消費(fèi)、生產(chǎn)的組織結(jié)構(gòu)、 國(guó)際投資和國(guó)際貿(mào)易等諸多因素綜合作用決定的。 我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)增加值比重徘徊和 偏低現(xiàn)象，與我國(guó)吸引外

2、資和對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn)密不可分。由于FDI主要集中在第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，F(xiàn)DI的迅速增長(zhǎng)必然對(duì)我國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生重要影響。本文的定量 研究結(jié)果表明，F(xiàn)DI對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響結(jié)果是提高了我國(guó)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重而 降低了第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重， 尤其是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重。二十世紀(jì)九十年代 以來(lái)我國(guó)工業(yè)制成品出口順差的迅猛增長(zhǎng)是我國(guó)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重不斷膨脹的一個(gè) 重要因素，同時(shí)也是我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重上升緩慢的重要因素，我國(guó)對(duì)外服務(wù)貿(mào)易不斷擴(kuò)大的逆差進(jìn)一步阻礙了我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重的上升。努力提高我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)尤 其是知識(shí)密集型服務(wù)業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力成為新的國(guó)際分工條件下我國(guó)面臨的一項(xiàng) 戰(zhàn)略性任務(wù)。本文通過(guò)國(guó)際比較， 利用投入產(chǎn)出表

3、研究了我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)最終需求和中間需求的特點(diǎn)及其原因， 結(jié)果表明： 我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)出主要用于滿足生產(chǎn)需求， 尤其是滿足工業(yè)的生產(chǎn)需求， 而用于滿足消費(fèi)者需求的比重不高； 但用于生產(chǎn)的服務(wù)產(chǎn)品則主要是傳統(tǒng)的商貿(mào)餐飲和交通運(yùn)輸?shù)刃袠I(yè)的服務(wù)產(chǎn)品， 而新興的不動(dòng)產(chǎn)和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)的服務(wù)產(chǎn)品所占比重不高。 利用擴(kuò)展線性支出系統(tǒng)需求函數(shù)模型對(duì)我國(guó)居民服務(wù)消費(fèi)特點(diǎn)的分析顯示我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化朝著有利于醫(yī)療保健、交通通信和教育文化娛樂(lè)等服務(wù)業(yè)的方向發(fā)展。 從需求的角度來(lái)講， 今后我國(guó)需要大力發(fā)展的服務(wù)行業(yè)有居民消費(fèi)服務(wù)業(yè)和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)。本文對(duì)我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)吸納就業(yè)的國(guó)際比較分析表明： 通過(guò)發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)來(lái)吸納我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力就

4、業(yè)不僅是必須的而且是可能的。 具體到服務(wù)業(yè)內(nèi)部， 傳統(tǒng)的批發(fā)零售貿(mào)易餐飲業(yè)仍將是今后我國(guó)吸納勞動(dòng)力的主要行業(yè)。 但吸納勞動(dòng)力更多且增長(zhǎng)更快的是新興的服務(wù)行業(yè)，這些行業(yè)包括：金融保險(xiǎn)、房地產(chǎn)、商務(wù)服務(wù)、教育、醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生、社區(qū)和個(gè)人生活服務(wù)等服務(wù)業(yè)。關(guān)鍵詞：服務(wù)業(yè)，F(xiàn)DI,外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)，需求結(jié)構(gòu)，就業(yè)8THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE SERVICES:PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTSMajor:Business ManagementName: Wei ZuoleiSupervisor: Professor Li JiangfanABSTRACTUtilizing mul

5、tinational cross section data and time series data, this dissertation re-examined the Petty-Clerk Law and found that at different stages of economic development the proportion of services in GDP may present different trends. From the 210 countries cross section data in 2002 we found that the stable

6、rise in the proportion of services in GDP appears after GDP per capita exceeds US$ 1000, while from the historical series data we found that the proportion of services in GDP stable rose more noticeably in the industrialized countries than in the industrializing countries. In my opinion, the differe

7、nt trends were caused by those factors such as household consumption, organization structure of production, foreign direct investment and foreign trade. As for China, the stagnation of the proportion of services in GDP since 1990 is closely bound up with FDI and structure of foreign trade. As the FD

8、I in China is centered largely in secondary industry, the rapid increase in FDI is sure to have an impact on the industry structure in China. Results of the quantitative analysis suggest that the FDI has raised the proportion of industry in GDP while lowed the proportion of agriculture and service i

9、n GDP, especially the proportion of service in GDP. The rapid growth of the trade surplus in Chinese industry since 1990 is one of the key factors that caused the rise of the proportion of industry in GDP as well as the stagnation of the proportion of services in GDP. And in the meanwhile, the growi

10、ng deficit in foreign trade in services counteracts the rise in the proportion of services in GDP. Upon the new international competitive conditions, trying to raise the international competitive ability of services, especially knowledge -intensive services, should be a strategic task for China.Usin

11、g input-output tables, this dissertation studies the 30 years changing characteristics of patterns of demand for services in the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, then compares them with Chinese. The results showed that the proportion of final consumption expenditure is relatively lower w

12、hile the proportion of intermediate consumption expenditure is relatively higher in China. Among the services that meet the intermediate demands in China, the share of real estate & business services is relatively lower. Utilizing the ELES model, this dissertation examines the household expendit

13、ure on services and the result shows that the change of consumption structure in China is favorable to the development of the services such as medical and health care, transport, telecommunications, education, entertainment, culture and arts. From a demand standpoint, residential services and busine

14、ss services in China should be developed in a big way in future.By international comparing, this dissertation also gives an empirical research on the characters of Chinese labor force s transferring to the tertiary industry. The conclusion is that the tertiary industry in our country has strong abil

15、ity as well as potentiality to absorb labor force. However, the speed of the labor trsansferring to the tertiary industry has been slow. The further study shows that the tertiary industry will absorb most of Chinese labor force. To speak specifically, wholesale and retail trade, catering services wi

16、ll still be the main industries that absorb labor force. However, the burgeoning services will absorb most of the newly-added labor force in China. And the burgeoning services include finance, insurance, real estate, business services, education, medical and health care, community and personal servi

17、ces.Key Words: Services 、 FDI 、 Structure of Foreign Trade、Structure of Demand 、 Employment中文摘要 I英文摘要 III目錄 V第 1章 引言 11.1 研究的背景與意義11.2 對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展研究文獻(xiàn)綜述31.3 本文的研究思路10第2章如何看待我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)的增加值比重 122.1 對(duì)“配第克拉克定律” 的再認(rèn)識(shí) 132.2 中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)比重徘徊是工業(yè)化過(guò)程中的正常現(xiàn)象 212.3 對(duì)我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)比重差距的進(jìn)一步認(rèn)識(shí) 252.4 本章小結(jié) 27第 3 章FDI 對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響 283.1 模型的設(shè)定和說(shuō)明

18、 283.2 對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的說(shuō)明 293.3 數(shù)據(jù)的處理結(jié)果與分析 323.4 計(jì)算FDI對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響 343.5 小結(jié)與啟示 35第 4 章中國(guó)外貿(mào)進(jìn)出口對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)的影響 374.1 我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的國(guó)際比較 384.2 外貿(mào)凈出口對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響 404.3 中國(guó)外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)與服務(wù)業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提升 444.4 本章小結(jié) 55第 5 章中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)最終需求和中間需求分析 575.1 發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家服務(wù)業(yè)中間需求和最終需求的特點(diǎn) 585.2 中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)需求結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn) 615.3 中外的差異及其原因分析 625.4 小結(jié)與建議 64第 6 章 居民消費(fèi)需求對(duì)中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)的影響 676.1 我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化 6

19、86.2 我國(guó)服務(wù)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)總體供求情況 706.3 對(duì)我國(guó)服務(wù)需求收入彈性的估計(jì) 726.4 本章小結(jié) 77第 7 章 中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)787.1 發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)趨勢(shì) 787.2 中國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)帶動(dòng)效應(yīng)的實(shí)證分析 837.3 中國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)各行業(yè)吸納勞動(dòng)力的特點(diǎn)與趨勢(shì) 887.4 本章小結(jié) 93第 8 章 結(jié)論 94參考文獻(xiàn) 97附錄 103后記 104論文原創(chuàng)性聲明 106后記1999 年 9 月以來(lái)，我有幸?guī)煆奈覈?guó)著名第三產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專(zhuān)家李江帆教授從事第三產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)習(xí)和研究。 從不知如何寫(xiě)學(xué)術(shù)論文到在國(guó)家級(jí)刊物上發(fā)表學(xué)術(shù)論文， 從不知如何進(jìn)行研究到參與國(guó)家級(jí)課題和

20、政策的研究， 李老師對(duì)我的學(xué)術(shù)成長(zhǎng)和進(jìn)步傾注了大量心血。李老師為人正直、治學(xué)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)、邏輯嚴(yán)密、學(xué)識(shí)淵博、誨人不倦、忘我工作。李老師的言傳身教，無(wú)時(shí)無(wú)刻不在激勵(lì)著我努力進(jìn)去、奮發(fā)向上。每次去導(dǎo)師家，師母李健英教授也教我以為人之道、求學(xué)之理，諄諄教誨， 縈繞于耳， 生活上的關(guān)心細(xì)致入微。 導(dǎo)師和師母的幫助和教誨之恩不斷激勵(lì)著我在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)研究的道路上努力探索， 也只有在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)研究上取得更大的成績(jī)才是對(duì)導(dǎo)師和師母最好的報(bào)答。本文在選題、 開(kāi)題和寫(xiě)作的過(guò)程中， 導(dǎo)師都給予了認(rèn)真細(xì)致的指導(dǎo)， 大到論文的選題框架，小到標(biāo)點(diǎn)符號(hào)，導(dǎo)師都一絲不茍、嚴(yán)格要求。在論文開(kāi)題時(shí)，湯在新教授、 江波副教授和李冠霖副教授對(duì)進(jìn)一步完善論文提出了有益的建議。 在論文答辯過(guò)程中， 暨南大學(xué)張炳申教授、 廣東省社科院李新家研究員、 暨南大學(xué)胡軍教授、 華南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)羅必良教授對(duì)論文的進(jìn)一步完善提出了寶貴意見(jiàn)， 在此表示衷心的感謝。 我要特別感謝中山大學(xué)管理學(xué)院的李非教授，