趨向在美國食品供應(yīng)鏈子(PPT34)(1)

1、Trends in the U.S. Food Supply ChainTrends in the U.S. Food Supply ChainDr. Kenneth C. ClaytonUSDA Agricultural Marketing ServiceWorld Union of Wholesale MarketsSeptember 19, 2005Trends in the U.S. Food Supply ChainTrends in the U.S. Food Supply ChainIntroductionIntroduction Overview of Traditional

2、“Competitive” Supply Chain Structure The Supply Chain of Yesteryear Overview of Emerging “Partnership” Supply Chain Structure The Supply Chain of Today Reasons for Change: Channel Blurring Changing Consumer Preferences Retail Differentiation Retail Concentration Growing Importance of Foodservice Tec

3、hnological Capabilities Changing Structure of Production AgricultureThe Supply Chain of YesteryearThe Supply Chain of YesteryearSources: Brian Silbermann, PMA, March 2005 Dr. Don Bowersox, Michigan State University“Competitive” Structure Traditional supermarkets dominated retail marketplace Many shi

4、ppers sold to many buyers in wholesale and retail markets; no large buyers drove the market Buyers tended to be more transaction and price-oriented; not open to cooperative partnerships with suppliers Daily sales transactions were typical “New technology” equaled a fax machine and PLU stickers “Anti

5、cipatory” supply chain system in place where suppliers Forecast product sales Buy the components and manufacture the products Warehouse the products Sell the products produced Deliver the products to the consumerThe Supply Chain of TodayThe Supply Chain of Today“Partnership” Structure Buyers seeking

6、 more long-term relationships with suppliers to ensure steadier pricing, supply availability, greater quality control Traditional “cultural” divide between procurement and marketing/merchandising departments disappearing as long-term supply relationships take precedence over short-term price negotia

7、tions Technological capabilities allow superior exchange of data between food suppliers and buyers, which permits more precise monitoring and calculations of sales transactions and demand requirementsThe Supply Chain of TodayThe Supply Chain of Today “Real-time” information exchange permits movement

8、 toward so-called “responsive” business model, whereby suppliers First sell their products Buy the components and materials necessary to produce the products Manufacture the products and deliver to customer Under the fully responsive business model, there is no inventory. The system works so quickly

9、 that retailers can sell products to consumers that the retailer has not even had to pay for yet. For food products, growing vertical integration of U.S. production agricultureincluding commodities such as produceincrease opportunities for strategic alliances across the supply chainOccurring against

10、 backdrop of growing diversity of retail venues where food products are marketed to consumers, including away from home Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Channel BlurringChannel BlurringReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Channel BlurringChannel BlurringConsumers are rejecting traditional superm

11、arkets in favor of alternative food retail outlets: Traditional grocery channel has experienced declines every year since 1995v In 2004, the average U.S. household made 69 trips to traditional supermarkets or grocery stores, compared to 92 trips in 1995v 2004 marked the first year that traditional s

12、upermarkets or grocery stores experienced less than 100% household penetrationTraditional grocery stores represented 52% of the nations grocery and consumable sales in 2004, down from 81% in 1994vShare is forecast to slip to 46% by 2009Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Channel BlurringChannel Blu

13、rringSupercenters, dollar stores big gainers in past few years: Supercenters have gained the most in terms of number of average annual shopping trips (27 per surveyed household in 2004, compared to 15 in 1999)v 17% of surveyed customers now report that supercenters are their primary food shopping ve

14、nue Dollar stores have gained the most in terms of household penetrationv 67% of surveyed households visited a dollar store in 2004, compared to 52% in 1999 Nontraditional food sellers, including supercenters, dollar stores, and wholesale clubs, represented 32% of grocery and consumable sales in 200

15、4, up from 9% in 1994 expected to rise to 39% by 2009Sources: Progressive Grocer, April 2004FMI, May 2004Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Channel BlurringChannel BlurringDirect-to-consumer marketing outlets gaining traction Value of direct-to-consumer sales grew 37% between 1997 and 2002 2% of s

16、urveyed food shoppers now indicate that farmers markets are their primary food shopping venue Farmers markets reported to have nearly a 4% market share of the organic food marketSources: Organic Trade Association 2004 Manufacturers Survey 2002 Census of AgricultureReasons for ChangeReasons for Chang

17、e Changing Consumer PreferencesChanging Consumer PreferencesThe average shopper shops at 2.2 stores each week to obtain all their The average shopper shops at 2.2 stores each week to obtain all their items, and the fact that they are willing to go to different stores to items, and the fact that they

18、 are willing to go to different stores to purchase various items suggests that supermarkets are missing an purchase various items suggests that supermarkets are missing an opportunity to capture more consumer dollars by delivering and opportunity to capture more consumer dollars by delivering and co

19、mmunicating a greater selection and value to their municating a greater selection and value to their shoppers. Phil Lempert, SupermarketGuru (2002)Phil Lempert, SupermarketGuru (2002) Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Changing Consumer PreferencesChanging Consumer Preferences Growing popularity o

20、f specialty and value-added foods Organic foodsv U.S. sales of organic food grew from $3.5 billion in 1997 to reach more than $10 billion by 2003v $4.3 billion or 42% of total organic sales in 2003 consisted of produce itemsv Average growth rate of 18% projected between 2004-2008, compared with grow

21、th of 2% to 3% for the conventional food industrySource: Organic Trade AssociationReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Changing Consumer PreferencesChanging Consumer Preferences Growing popularity of specialty and value-added foods (continued) Locally-grown foodsv Large increases in demand for local

22、 foods across all restaurant categories. v 73% of Americans say it is important to know whether food is grown or produced locally or regionallyv More than 75% of consumers surveyed in 2003 in seven Midwestern states and the metropolitan Boston and Seattle areas chose “grown locally by family farmers

23、” as their #1 choice for produce or productsSources: Roper Public Affairs, Iowa State University The National Restaurant AssociationReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Changing Consumer PreferencesChanging Consumer PreferencesSource: Trends in U.S. Produce Marketing, Dr. Roberta Cook, Univ. of CA D

24、avis, April 2005, based on AC Nielsen figures Growing popularity of specialty and value-added foods (continued) Convenience-oriented foodsv Sales of fresh cut salads at supermarkets increased from $197 million in 1993 to $2.5 billion in 2003Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Changing Consumer Pref

25、erencesChanging Consumer PreferencesGrowing popularity of specialty and value-added foods (continued) Ready-to-eat/takeout foodsv Many consumers, when not eating out, are bringing prepared meals home.Almost one-third (31%) say that, at least once a week, they eat meals at home that were not prepared

26、 at homeClose to 10% say they bring home takeout food three or more times each weekvMore take-out food being purchased at supermarkets 27% of takeout food purchased at supermarkets in 2004, compared to 19% in 2003Source: FMI 2004 Trends reportReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail Differentiati

27、onRetail DifferentiationConsumers are becoming more polarized and fragmented as a group. Consumers are becoming more polarized and fragmented as a group. The differences in product and shopping preferences between young and The differences in product and shopping preferences between young and old, r

28、ich and poor, married and single, Caucasian and ethnic, urban and old, rich and poor, married and single, Caucasian and ethnic, urban and exurban, are becoming greater. These consumers are looking for exurban, are becoming greater. These consumers are looking for products and services that are authe

29、ntic and unique to their products and services that are authentic and unique to their munities. Deloitte Research Deloitte Research (quoted in Progressive Grocer, Feb. 15, 2005)(quoted in Progressive Grocer, Feb. 15, 2005)Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail DifferentiationRetail Differentiat

30、ionIn response to changing consumer demands, retailers are becoming more focused on specific market segments New store construction in 2003 was primarily driven by target-market focused stores. Overall, 12.6% of companies that responded to FMIs store development survey operated at least one target-m

31、arket focused store. Of these:v 44.4% offered gourmet formats and nearly one-third offered Hispanic-oriented or natural/organic formatsv The majority operated smaller chains of 11 to 100 storesv 36.4% of the target-market focused stores scheduled to open in the next year were Hispanic-oriented forma

32、ts, 45.5% were natural/organic outlets, and 18.2% were gourmet outletsReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail DifferentiationRetail DifferentiationDemand for variety driving expansion of retail produce departments Strong growth in retail produce stock keeping units (SKUs) provides competitive ad

33、vantage to supplierssuch as specialty wholesalerswho can deliver broad variety of produce items to retail buyersSource: FreshTrack 2001, Cornell UniversityReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail ConcentrationRetail ConcentrationReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail ConcentrationRetail Conc

34、entrationDwindling supermarket loyalty leads to sluggish profits Total sales at U.S. supermarkets in 2004 rose 4.2% above 2003. When deflated by the FMIs supermarket price index, actual growth was just 0.89% below the average 1% increase in population In 2003, although sales growth at the top ten su

35、permarket chains grew 2.7%, overall food sales growth actually increased 5.8% during the same time period, demonstrating the relative weakness of the traditional supermarket sector.Source: U.S. Census BureauReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail ConcentrationRetail ConcentrationConsolidation of

36、 retail supermarkets continues to intensifyGrocery Sales Market ShareTop U.S. Food Retailers1992-2004Sources: USDA/ERS, 1992-2003, FMI 2004FMI (2004 sales statistics) Top 20 food retailers in U.S. responsible for 68% of retail grocery sales, 95% of supermarket sales Top 4 food retailers in U.S. resp

37、onsible for nearly 39% of grocery sales, 54% of supermarket salesReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Retail ConcentrationRetail ConcentrationHighly competitive leading to aggressive cost saving and heightened quality control throughout the supply chain More than 80% of surveyed retailers revealed t

38、hat they demanded more services from their suppliers than they did in 1993 74% of surveyed produce shippers reported increased demand from their retail buyers. Topping the list were:v The provision of private label productsv Category management servicesv Electronic data interchange capability Greate

39、r emphasis being placed on precise inventory management through collaborative relationships, data exchange with suppliersSources: Willard Bishop Consulting, June 2000 National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Policy (NFAPP) Briefing Paper, Arizona State University, March 2001Reasons for ChangeRe

40、asons for Change Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceAway-from-home food consumption continues to increase In 2003, about $949 billion worth of food was supplied by th

41、e food marketing system. Foodservice facilities supplied about $445 billion of this total for on-premise or immediate consumption, the 2nd highest level in recent history. 70% of shoppers eat their evening meal out at least once a week Produce consumption has been significantly boosted by the away-f

42、rom-home marketv Per capita consumption of vegetables increased by about 25% between 1980-82 and 2000-02. v More than 30% of fresh onions, fresh market tomatoes, mushrooms, sweet peppers and garlic are used in foodserviceSource: USDA Economic Research Service; FMI, June 2004Reasons for ChangeReasons

43、 for Change Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceAway-from-home food consumption continues to increase (continued)Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceImplications of away-from-home consumption trends Rapi

44、d growth in importance of foodservice segment to wholesale industryv 1987: 8% of wholesale produce sales generated by foodservice customers (compared to 38% for retail)v 1997: 21% of wholesale produce sales generated by foodservice customers (compared to 35% for retail)v 2002: Surveyed specialty foo

45、d and produce distributors report that foodservice customers account for 45% of sales v 2005: Foodservice share of specialty distributor sales projected to rise to 48% Sources: 1987 and 1997 data from USDA/ERS, 2002 and 2005 data from Cornell UniversityCensus of Wholesale TradeFreshTrack 2003 (Corne

46、ll, PMA)Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceDemands for service by foodservice operators temper desire for direct procurement from growers Two-thirds of foodservice operators surveyed by Cornell University in 2003and more than three-

47、quarters of casual dining operatorsexpect to increase “their direct contact with grower/shippers” to plan production of specific produce items/varieties Despite signs of interest in establishing more direct grower contact, foodservice operators express equal or greater preference to receiving the fo

48、llowing services from distributors rather than grower/shippers:v Price quotesv Market reportsv Availability of “opportunistic buys”v Package customizationv Cost-based analysisv Food safety assurancev Quality inspectionsSources: Cornell University, FreshTrack 2003Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change

49、Growing Importance of FoodserviceGrowing Importance of FoodserviceSpecialty produce distributors have the competitive edge in meeting foodservice demands for variety, quality, flexibility Large majority of surveyed foodservice operators expect to increase number of fresh, pre-cut, and “healthy” prod

50、uce items they purchase, including items for “center of the plate” entreesv Specialty distributors typically handle more produce SKUs than broadline distributors (who supply food and non-food items)377 SKUs, on average, compared to 310 for broadline distributors. v Specialty distributors place more

51、emphasis on handling “unique” produce varieties, “pre-ripened” fruits, and to a lesser degree, organic products When selecting a supplier of pre-cut produce, foodservice operators indicated that “frequent” and “flexible” delivery schedules mattered mostgiving a distinct advantage to firms that can p

52、rovide these tailored servicesSources: Cornell University, FreshTrack 2003Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Technological CapabilitiesTechnological CapabilitiesReasons for ChangeReasons for Change Technological CapabilitiesTechnological Capabilities New technologies, such as the Global Data Synch

53、ronization Network (GDSN), allow electronic communication of “real-time” data between firms, facilitating category management and efficient supply replenishmentFor product tracking, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags can provide more detailed, accurate, and frequent data messages than barcod

54、es Reasons for ChangeReasons for Change Technological CapabilitiesTechnological CapabilitiesCurrent technological priorities When supermarket buyers were asked which areas will your company test or launch a program in 2005, they responded:v Data Synchronization, 28% in 2005, compared to 18% in 2004v RFID, 21% in 2005, compared to 3% in 2004 Nearly half o