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1、本科畢業(yè)論文(設(shè)計)外文翻譯Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the
2、domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become
3、 problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to
4、the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly orindirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a
5、 possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial marketexposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high l
6、oss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manageit. Identifying exposures and risks
7、 forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal tr
8、ansactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. Whenfinancial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adver
9、sely impact the profitability of an organization.Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:s exposure to changes in market1. Financial risks arising from an organization prices,
10、such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the orga
11、nization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk managementis a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consiste
12、nt with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk neces
13、sitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations managefinancial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these
14、 products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization's risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives aretraded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The valueof derivatives contracts, s
15、uch as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financialr
16、isk are the sameones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enablesthose who wish to reduce risk to pass italong to those whoseek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to
17、 estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable.However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures mayhave to be considered in developing an understanding of ho
18、w financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies needto be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect cha
19、nging expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement r
20、isk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on thevariability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset ' s riskiness, bu
21、t also its contribution to the overall riskinessof theportfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to aportfolio provides opportunities for diversification
22、, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of t
23、he total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks.Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails.Dive
24、rsification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management ' s control. Althoughthe risk of loss still exists,diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes
25、.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to managethe risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of
26、 an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk managementprocess involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understandin
27、g their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for ri
28、sk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization 's exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing ex
29、posures may be managedwith derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining wh
30、ich exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, re
31、porting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives
32、 of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest Rates
33、Interest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasingpower of a lender 'sassets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertain
34、ty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital pro
35、jects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example,
36、the threat of political or sovereign risk cancause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, asinvestors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditio
37、ns3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank 4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities 6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to m
38、aturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market's expectations
39、 of futureinterest rates.Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year's time canbe determined.The shape of the yie
40、ld curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and mayprovide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lend
41、ers/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms.Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors de
42、mand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition tolending and risk components. If investorsexpect futureinflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest ra
43、te (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in aninversion of the yield curve and adownward slope to its
44、appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demandfor both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rat
45、es and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.Source: Karen A. Horcher, 2005. “What Is Financial Risk Management?”. Essentialsof Financial Risk Management, John Wiley & Sons,財務(wù)風險管理盡管近年來金融風險大大增加,但風險和風險管理不是當代的主要問題。全球市場越 來越多的問題是,風險可能來自幾千英里以外的與這些事件無關(guān)的國外市場。意味著需要 的信息可以在瞬間得到,而
46、其后的市場反應(yīng),很快就發(fā)生了。經(jīng)濟氣候和市場可能會快速 影響外匯匯率變化、利率及大宗商品價格,交易對手會迅速成為一個問題。因此,重要的 一點是要確保金融風險是可以被識別并且管理得當?shù)?。準備是風險管理工作的一個關(guān)鍵組 成部分。什么是風險?風險給機會提供了基礎(chǔ)。風險和暴露的條款讓它們在含義上有了細微的差別。風險是 指有損失的可能性,而暴露是可能的損失,盡管他們通??梢曰Q。風險起因是由于暴露金融市場的暴露影響大多數(shù)機構(gòu),包括直接或間接的影響。當一個組織的金融市場暴 露,有損失的可能性,但也是一個獲利或利潤的機會。金融市場的暴露可以提供戰(zhàn)略性或 競爭性的利益。風險損失的可能性事件來自如市場價格的變化
47、。事件發(fā)生的可能性很小,但這可能導 致?lián)p失率很高,特別麻煩,因為他們往往比預(yù)想的要嚴重得多。換句話說,可能就是變異 的風險回報。由于它并不總是可能的,或者能滿意地把風險消除,在決定如何管理它中了解它是很 重要的一步。識別暴露和風險形式的基礎(chǔ)需要相應(yīng)的財務(wù)風險管理策略。財務(wù)風險是如何產(chǎn)生的呢?無數(shù)金融性質(zhì)的交易包括銷售和采購,投資和貸款,以及其他各種業(yè)務(wù)活動,產(chǎn)生了 財務(wù)風險。它可以出現(xiàn)在合法的交易中,新項目中,兼并和收購中,債務(wù)融資中,能源部 分的成本中,或通過管理的活動,禾I益相關(guān)者,競爭者,外國政府,或天氣出現(xiàn)。當金融 的價格變化很大,它可以增加成本,降低財政收入,或影響其他有不利影響的盈
48、利能力的 組織。金融波動可能使人們難以規(guī)劃和預(yù)算商品和服務(wù)的價格,并分配資金。有三種金融風險的主要來源:1、金融風險起因于組織所暴露出來的市場價格的變化,如利率、匯率、和大宗商品價格。2、引起金融風險的行為有與其他組織的交易如供應(yīng)商、客戶,和對方在金融衍生產(chǎn)品中的 交易。3、由于內(nèi)部行動或失敗的組織,特別是人、過程和系統(tǒng)所造成的金融風險。什么是財務(wù)風險管理?財務(wù)風險管理是用來處理金融市場中不確定的事情的。它涉及到一個組織所面臨的評 估和組織的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略、內(nèi)部管理的優(yōu)先事項和當政策一致時的財務(wù)風險。企業(yè)積極應(yīng)對金 融風險可以使企業(yè)成為一個具有競爭優(yōu)勢的組織。它還確保管理,業(yè)務(wù)人員,利益相關(guān)者, 董
49、事會董事在對風險的關(guān)鍵問題達成協(xié)議。金融風險管理組織就必須作出那些不被接受的有關(guān)風險的決定。那些被動不采取行動 的戰(zhàn)略是在默認情況下接受所有的風險。組織使用各種策略和產(chǎn)品來管理金融風險。重要的是要了解這些產(chǎn)品和戰(zhàn)略方面,通 過工作來減少該組織內(nèi)的風險承受能力和目標范圍內(nèi)的風險。風險管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具。在金融機構(gòu)和有組織的交易所,衍生物廣泛地進行交易。衍生工具的合約的價值,如期貨,遠期,期權(quán)和掉期,是源自相關(guān)資產(chǎn)的價格。衍生物利用利率,匯率,商品,股票和固定收入的證券,信貸,甚至是天氣進行交易這些產(chǎn)品和市場參與者使用策略來管理金融風險,與由投機者用來提高風險的杠桿作 用是相同。雖然可以認
50、為,衍生工具的廣泛使用增加了風險,衍生品的存在使那些希望通 過把它傳遞給那些尋求風險及相關(guān)機會的人降低了風險。估計財務(wù)損失的可能性是非常令人滿意的。然而,概率標準的理論往往在金融市場的 分析中不適用。風險通常不會孤立存在的,通常會和幾個風險的相互作用,必須認真考慮 在發(fā)展中國家的金融風險是如何產(chǎn)生的。有時,這些相互作用是很難預(yù)測的,因為它們最 終取決于人的行為。金融風險管理是一個持續(xù)不斷的過程。隨著市場需求的變化和完善,戰(zhàn)略必須得到執(zhí) 行。有關(guān)的修改反映不斷變化的市場利率,變化的預(yù)期營商環(huán)境,或例如不斷變化的國際 政治條件。一般來說,這個過程可以概括如下:1、識別并優(yōu)先考慮關(guān)鍵的財務(wù)風險。2、
51、確定適當?shù)娘L險容忍程度。3、按照政策實施風險管理戰(zhàn)略。4、按需要衡量,報告,監(jiān)控和改進。多樣化多年來,公司資產(chǎn)的風險評價的可變性僅僅基于其回報。 與此形成對比的是 , 現(xiàn)代投資 組合理論不僅考慮了一項資產(chǎn)的風險,而且是經(jīng)濟體總體風險的組合。由于風險多樣化, 組織可以有機會來降低風險。在投資組合管理方面,在一定限度內(nèi)給個別部件組合提供了多樣化的機會。一個多元 化的資產(chǎn)組合中包含的回報是不同的,換句話說,彼此之間的關(guān)系是弱或負面的??紤]到 一個投資組合的風險是非常有用的,并且應(yīng)考慮改變或增加的潛在風險的總數(shù)。多樣化是一個管理金融風險的重要工具。通過預(yù)設(shè)的組織,對手之間的多樣化可以減 少突發(fā)事件對組織所造成的不利影響而引起的風險。其中投資資產(chǎn)多元化減少了發(fā)行人失 敗的損失程度。多樣化的客戶、供應(yīng)商和金融來源減少了一個組織的貿(mào)易被外面變化控制 的負面影響的可能性。雖然損失的風險仍然存在,多樣化的機會可以減少大的不良結(jié)果。 風險管理過程金融風險管理過程中的戰(zhàn)略使一個組織去
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