央行下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率的原因、背景、目的

1、央行下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率的原因、背景The central bank lowered the deposit reserve rate reason, background1.與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展回落相關(guān):GDP增速從一季度的9.7%下滑到二季度的9.5%和三季度的9.1%。在國(guó)內(nèi)外的多重壓力下,通過貨幣政策的適當(dāng)放松達(dá)到提振經(jīng)濟(jì),解決就業(yè),穩(wěn)定職工收入,穩(wěn)定社會(huì)的目的。1.And economic development: GDP growth rate down from the first quarter of 9.7% down to two in the 9.5% quarter and the

2、three quarter of 9.1%. At home and abroad under the multiple pressures, the appropriate relaxation through monetary policy to boost the economy, solve obtain employment, stable worker income, stabilize social objective2.地方財(cái)政債券的發(fā)行,擠占了貨幣流動(dòng)性的釋放,擴(kuò)大了投資但減少了消費(fèi)。擴(kuò)張性的財(cái)政政策和擴(kuò)張性的貨幣政策混合使用,使市場(chǎng)利率水平保持穩(wěn)定,在CPI高位情況下,貸款

3、利率不會(huì)作大的松動(dòng),否則會(huì)使今年的調(diào)控(特別是對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)調(diào)控付之東流。2 .local government bond issuance, misuse of monetary liquidity release, expanded investment but reduced consumption. Expansionary fiscal policy and the monetary policy of outspread sex mix, so that the level of interest rates remained stable, high in the CPI case, l

4、oan interest rate not loose, or they will make this Regulation ( especially for price control all one's efforts wasted.3.由于歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)向深度蔓延,我國(guó)第一大出口市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入二戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)最困難的時(shí)期。從9月份開始,我國(guó)出口已連續(xù)2個(gè)月負(fù)增長(zhǎng)3 .due to the depth of the spread of European sovereign debt crisis, China's largest export market in the econom

5、y after World War II the most difficult period. From the beginning of September, China's export has 2 consecutive months of negative growth目的:Purpose:1. 意在釋放流動(dòng)性1 to the release of liquidity“央行宣布下調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率,主要是考慮到當(dāng)前準(zhǔn)備金率實(shí)際水平較高、外匯占款減少等導(dǎo)致了銀行流動(dòng)性偏緊,以致銀行的信貸投放能力受到了制約。”交通銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家連平指出,準(zhǔn)備金率的下調(diào)有利于緩解銀行流動(dòng)性壓力,促進(jìn)貨幣信

6、貸合理增長(zhǎng)。" The central bank cut reserve ratio, mainly taking into account the current reserve rate actual levelis higher, Waihuizhankuan reduction has caused the bank fluidity is tight, so that the bank credit capacity is restricted." The traffic bank chief economist Lianping indicated, reser

7、ve rate cut will help ease the liquidity pressure, promote reasonable growth of monetary credit相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自2010年起,為應(yīng)對(duì)通脹壓力,我國(guó)央行連續(xù)12次上調(diào)了存款準(zhǔn)備金率,但一定程度上帶來今年以來市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性普遍趨緊的局面。根據(jù)央行最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10月末我國(guó)廣義貨幣(M2余額81.68萬億元,同比增長(zhǎng)12.9%,狹義貨幣(M1余額27.66萬億元,同比增長(zhǎng)8.4%,貨幣供應(yīng)量的同比增速均處于近年來的低點(diǎn)。此次調(diào)整后,大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)存款準(zhǔn)備金率為21%,中小型金融機(jī)構(gòu)存款準(zhǔn)備金率為17.5%。上調(diào)0

8、.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)后,可釋放流動(dòng)性4000多億元。Relevant data shows, since 2010, to deal with the inflation pressure, China's central bank for 12 consecutive times raised the deposit reserve ratio, but to a certain extent bring this year market liquidity generally tight situation. According to the central bank's late

9、st data shows, 10 at the end of China's broad money ( M2 balance of 81.68 yuan, grow 12.9% compared to the same period, the narrow money ( M1 balance of 27.66 yuan, grow 8.4% compared to the same period, the money supply in the year-on-year growth in recent lows. After this adjustment, the large

10、 financial institutions deposit reserve ratio of 21%, small and medium-sized financial institutions to deposit reserve ratio of 17.5%. By 0.5 percentage points, but the release of liquidity, about 400000000000 yuan.2. 傳遞穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)信號(hào)2.The steady growth of signal transmission相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速回落的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在加大。目前GDP增速從一季

11、度的9.7%下滑到二季度的9.5%和三季度的9.1%。同時(shí)匯豐銀行日前公布的11月中國(guó)制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI創(chuàng)出32個(gè)月以來最低,折射出中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在加大。此外,由于歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)向深度蔓延,我國(guó)第一大出口市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入二戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)最困難的時(shí)期。從9月份開始,我國(guó)出口已連續(xù)2個(gè)月負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。Relevant data shows, our country economy increases fast fall after a rise risk are increasing. The GDP growth rate from the first quarter of 9.7% down to

12、 two in the 9.5% quarter and the three quarter of 9.1%. At the same time, HSBC Bank recently released the November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI 32 months hit the lowest, reflects the Chinese economic downside risk is increasing. In addition, due to the depth of the spread of E

13、uropean sovereign debt crisis, China's largest export market in the economy after World War II the most difficult period. From the beginning of September, China's export has 2 consecutive months of negative growth.3.貨幣政策是否轉(zhuǎn)向有待觀察Whether the monetary policy to be observed對(duì)于此次下調(diào)是否意味著中國(guó)貨幣政策的轉(zhuǎn)向,專

14、家們普遍持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度?！安荒馨蜒胄邢抡{(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率理解為貨幣政策發(fā)生了方向性的變化。10月份的外匯占款減少導(dǎo)致銀行體系流動(dòng)性凈流失,而財(cái)政收入大幅增加以及其先收后支的特點(diǎn)亦使部分銀行出現(xiàn)存款的階段性減少,因此央行下調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率,這只是流動(dòng)性的對(duì)沖政策。”中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)中國(guó)銀行業(yè)研究中心主任郭田勇判斷,考慮到物價(jià)尚在高位、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控等因素,政策仍需保持穩(wěn)健。莊健也認(rèn)為,相比于此前趨緊的貨幣環(huán)境,此次下調(diào)只是貨幣政策進(jìn)一步微調(diào)的體現(xiàn),政策是否全面轉(zhuǎn)向還有待觀察。For the cut means China monetary policy change, the experts generally

15、 cautious attitude." Can't take the central bank lowered the reserve ratio for monetary policy direction of change. The October foreign exchange led to reduced liquidity in the banking system and financial income net loss, as well as a substantial increase in its collection of the posterior

16、 branch of the characteristic is also part of bank deposit phasic decrease, so the central bank lowered the reserve ratio, this just liquidity hedge policy." Central University of Finance and Economics China banking research center director Guo Tianyong judge, taking into account the price stil

17、l is in perch, structure adjustment, the real estate regulation factors, still need to maintain a prudent policy. Zhuang Jian also believed that,compared to the previous tightening monetary conditions, this decline is the monetary policy further fine-tuning of the embodiment, policy steering remains

18、 to be seen whether comprehensive.瑞信亞太區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)師陶冬認(rèn)為,目前國(guó)內(nèi)準(zhǔn)備金率指標(biāo)偏高,準(zhǔn)備金率的下調(diào)是技術(shù)性下調(diào)。以過去10年的平均貨幣指標(biāo)看,中國(guó)貨幣環(huán)境正常化其實(shí)才剛剛開始。Credit Suisse chief Asia economist Tao Dong thinks, at present the domestic reserve ratio on the high side, reserve rate cut is the technique of cut. In the past 10 years the average monetary indic