Unit4ARecipeforInflation解決糧價(jià)飛漲的良方——《21世紀(jì)研究生英語(yǔ)教材閱讀教程》下冊(cè)

1、Unit 4 ARecipeforInflation解決糧價(jià)飛漲的良方In Pakistan, the prohibitive price of tea became an election issue; Mexican housewives have rioted to protest the shortage of affordable tortilla; Swaziland is facing famine, even as it exports cassava to feed the rich worlds hunger for biofuel.1 在巴基斯坦，茶葉的限制性價(jià)格成了一項(xiàng)

2、選舉時(shí)的議題；墨西哥的家庭主婦們因買得起的玉米面餅短缺而發(fā)起聲勢(shì)浩大的抗議示威；盡管斯威士蘭為滿足發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)于生物燃料的需求而出口木薯，該國(guó)自身卻正面臨著饑饉。Rising agricultural inflation, or “agflation”, is a global phenomenon that touches everyone, and almost every day it seems to intensify. This week, the price of prime spring wheat rose by 25 per cent on the American exch

3、anges, while Russia and Kazakhstan announced fresh curbs on exports to protect domestic supplies. On the Chicago Board of Trade, the price of wheat has hit record highs of more than $12 a bushel. Since 2004 world food prices have doubled, and over the past year alone agricultural prices are up by ab

4、out 50 per cent.2 不斷升級(jí)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格暴漲，或曰“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格飛漲”，是一個(gè)全球性的現(xiàn)象，它涉及每一個(gè)人，而且，這種局面似乎日趨緊張。本周，美國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品交易所主要的春小麥期貨價(jià)格上漲了25，而俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦則宣布采取新的限制出口的措施以保護(hù)國(guó)內(nèi)的供應(yīng)。美國(guó)芝加哥期貨交易所的小麥價(jià)格已達(dá)到了歷史新高，超過(guò)了每蒲式耳12美元。自2004年以來(lái)，世界糧食價(jià)格已經(jīng)翻了一番，僅去年一年，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格就上漲了約50。For those in the developing world who spend their money on food and little else, this is

5、 a matter of life and death. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation says the rising price of cereals such as wheat and maize are a “major global concern”.3 對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家那些把錢(qián)主要用于購(gòu)買糧食而很少有錢(qián)花費(fèi)在其他方面的人來(lái)講，這是一個(gè)關(guān)乎生死存亡的問(wèn)題。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧食和農(nóng)業(yè)組織宣稱，像小麥和玉米這樣的谷物價(jià)格的上漲是一個(gè)“全球擔(dān)心的大問(wèn)題”。In the West, the damage caused by inc

6、reases in the price of food is damped by the costs of transporting and refining it into finished products, and by the general prosperity of consumers. Hard-pressed British farmers even regard current trends as a bonus. The large supermarket chains and food processors are also doing their best to res

7、ist the great food inflation. But agflation is making the lives of policy makers more difficult and is hitting household budgets.4 在西方，糧價(jià)上漲造成的損失被糧食的運(yùn)輸和加工成本以及消費(fèi)者普遍的富裕所沖淡。境況困窘的英國(guó)農(nóng)民甚至認(rèn)為目前的趨勢(shì)是一種意外的禮物。大型超市連鎖店和食品加工商也在盡最大努力抵御糧價(jià)的飛漲。但是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的飛漲確實(shí)讓政策制定者的日子更難過(guò)了，并且也影響著居民的家庭預(yù)算。Yesterdays “producer price” figures

8、in the United States confirmed the clear inflationary problem faced in factories and food processing plants a leading indicator of what will soon be seen in the shops. Over the past 12 months, producer prices rose 7.4 percent, the fastest pace since October 1981. Food prices climbed 1.7 per cent, th

9、e most since October 2004. Crude food prices that is, the input costs faced by US suppliers increased 2.7 per cent. The equivalent figures in the UK reported recently were even more alarming: food prices up 8.5 per cent and input food costs up by between 14.9 per cent (imports) and 36 per cent (home

10、 grown) on the year.5 昨天公布的美國(guó)“生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格”數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)了工廠和食品加工場(chǎng)所面臨的明顯的糧價(jià)飛漲問(wèn)題這是商店商品價(jià)格即將上漲的主要風(fēng)向標(biāo)。在過(guò)去的12個(gè)月里，生產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲了7.4，是自1981年10月以來(lái)最大幅度的上漲。食品價(jià)格攀升了1.7，是自2004年10月以來(lái)最大的漲幅。未加工的糧食價(jià)格即美國(guó)供應(yīng)商的糧食購(gòu)入成本上漲了2.7。英國(guó)最近公布的相應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)更令人震驚：食品價(jià)格上漲了8.5，而糧食購(gòu)入成本本年度的漲幅在14.9(進(jìn)口)到36(國(guó)產(chǎn))之間。Commodity price increases tend to feed on themselves, if that

11、s an appropriate expression. Oil-price hikes raise the cost of hauling crops from continent to continent, especially some of the higher-end “cash crops” the West has developed a taste for; mange-tout嫩豌豆flown in from east Africa is bound to become more pricey as the cost of aviation fuel climbs, even

12、 if the underlying production conditions dont change. Higher grain prices tend to push the cost of rearing livestock up. And higher oil prices incentivize farmers to switch to biofuel crops, often at the behest of nervous governments worried about the security of their energy supplies.6 商品價(jià)格的上漲往往具有相

13、互依賴的“鏈?zhǔn)健狈磻?yīng)，如果這種說(shuō)法合適的話。石油價(jià)格的節(jié)節(jié)攀升提高了洲際間運(yùn)輸糧食一尤其是西方人喜歡的一些高端的“商品作物”一的成本；隨著航空燃料價(jià)格的攀升，即便基本的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的條件不變，空運(yùn)自非洲東部的菜豆的價(jià)格勢(shì)必更高。更高的谷物價(jià)格往往會(huì)使家畜飼養(yǎng)成本提高。而且更高的石油價(jià)格會(huì)刺激農(nóng)民轉(zhuǎn)而種植生物燃料作物一往往是在對(duì)本國(guó)能源供應(yīng)感到擔(dān)憂的那些神經(jīng)質(zhì)的政府的要求之下。 Sharply escalating bills at the supermarket checkout fall into the category economists call “high visibility inf

14、lation”. The increases themselves may not be so large in relation to the earnings of those affected, but they make people feel poorer and make them sceptical about official claims about subdued inflation. Thus they tend to increase inflationary expectations, and pay demands.7 超市收款處錢(qián)數(shù)急劇提高的結(jié)算單正是反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

15、家所稱的“高可見(jiàn)度通貨膨脹”。價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)本身也許和那些受到影響的人們的收入沒(méi)有太大的關(guān)系，但確實(shí)讓人們感覺(jué)到更加貧困，而且使他們開(kāi)始懷疑政府所宣稱的對(duì)通貨膨脹的抑制是否屬實(shí)。因此，他們往往以為通貨膨脹會(huì)加劇，也會(huì)要求提高他們的薪金。Normally the Wests central banks would nudge interest rates higher to deal with such pressures, but the fragile state of the worlds leading economies makes such action tricky. Some such

16、 as the US Fed have implicitly favoured a little more inflation over recession. Hence higher inflation co-exists with slowing or stagnant economies. Rising food prices are putting the “agflation” into “stagflation”. How has it come about?8 通常西方國(guó)家的中央銀行會(huì)稍微提高利率以應(yīng)付這些壓力，但是世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體脆弱的狀況往往使這種措施的效果難以預(yù)料。一些中央銀

17、行一比如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一實(shí)際上暗中希望在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期問(wèn)通貨膨脹的程度更大一點(diǎn)。因此，更高的通貨膨脹和緩慢的或是停滯的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并存。上漲的食品價(jià)格把“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格飛漲”轉(zhuǎn)變成了“滯脹”。這一切到底是怎么發(fā)生的呢?Mercifully, some of it is down to temporary factors: freakishly bad weather in east Asia, like the floods endured in the North of England and West Country last year, will have a relatively temporary ef

18、fect, though the spikes in some prices look severe.9 幸運(yùn)的是，有些情況和如下的一些暫時(shí)的因素相關(guān)：比如，東亞多變的壞天氣一就像去年英格蘭北部和西部鄉(xiāng)村遭受的洪災(zāi)一樣一會(huì)產(chǎn)生相對(duì)暫時(shí)性的影響，盡管有些價(jià)格的急劇上漲形勢(shì)看起來(lái)非常嚴(yán)峻。China has been badly affected by cold and rain, pushing inflation to an 11-year high of 7.1 per cent. Tomato prices are up by 138 per cent and pork is 67 per

19、 cent more expensive. Reports yesterday that Chinas food producing regions to the north were suffering from drought drove world soya prices up again. India said yesterday that it may import two million tonnes of grain after dry weather cut the harvest. Floods in Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi have ha

20、d a devastating impact.10 中國(guó)遭受了嚴(yán)重的寒冷天氣和雨水災(zāi)害的影響，使通貨膨脹達(dá)到了11年來(lái)的最高值71。西紅柿價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)了138，豬肉價(jià)格貴了67。昨天中國(guó)北方糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)遭受干旱的報(bào)道使得世界大豆價(jià)格又一次上漲。印度昨天宣布，在干旱的天氣降低了收成之后，印度可能將進(jìn)口200萬(wàn)噸谷物。莫桑比克、贊比亞和馬拉維的洪災(zāi)已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生了毀滅性的影響。All these situations should improve. The world should also be able to count on an end to the tensions in Kenya that ha

21、ve crippled her output of tea and cash crops. In the case of Zimbabwe, a historically important source of food has long been stymied by President Robert Mugabes eccentric polices. These, too, may pass.11 所有這些情況都應(yīng)改善。整個(gè)世界還應(yīng)當(dāng)有望看到肯尼亞緊張局勢(shì)的結(jié)束一這種緊張局勢(shì)已經(jīng)損害了它的茶葉和商品作物的產(chǎn)量。至于津巴布韋，該國(guó)一種傳統(tǒng)的重要食物來(lái)源長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直遭受著總統(tǒng)羅伯特穆加貝偏執(zhí)

22、政策的抑制。這一切也都會(huì)過(guò)去。The immediate outlook for the next year or so is likely to stay gloomy, though, because of the low level of world food stocks. The UNs Food and Agriculture Organisation said that these are at record lows, and any attempt to rebuild them will tend to keep food prices elevated. World wh

23、eat stocks stand at about 157 million tonnes, against more than 200 million tonnes in 2003. US wheat stocks are projected to fall to their lowest levels in 60 years by May. Speculators have noticed these movements and have, unhelpfully, moved in on “soft commodities” as other high yielding investmen

24、t opportunities have dried up.12 不過(guò)，展望未來(lái)的一兩年，形勢(shì)很有可能是令人沮喪的，這是因?yàn)槭澜缂Z食儲(chǔ)備的低水平。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織宣稱糧食儲(chǔ)備處在前所未有的低水平，而任何試圖重建糧食儲(chǔ)備的企圖都將使食品價(jià)格持續(xù)上升。世界小麥儲(chǔ)備保持在大約157億噸，而2003年是2億多噸。預(yù)計(jì)到5月份，美國(guó)小麥儲(chǔ)備將降到60年來(lái)的最低水平。由于其他高收益的投資機(jī)會(huì)枯竭，投機(jī)者們已經(jīng)注意到了這些動(dòng)向，而且開(kāi)始涉足“軟商品”，這顯然對(duì)整個(gè)形勢(shì)無(wú)益。But even if crops and reserves recover, there are more worrying, long

25、- term influences at work that herald an era of permanently dearer food. Most politically controversial is the diversion of crops to biofuel production. The White House has been the most aggressive in its promotion of bio crops, but others, such as the European Union, have also set ambitious targets

26、 for the new technology. US production of ethanol from corn has gone from 1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to 5 billion in 2006. President George Bush has set an interim target of 35 billion gallons for 2017 on the way to the administrations ultimate goal of 60 billion by 2030. Brazil and Indonesia are a

27、ccused by their critics of sacrificing food and biodiversity to bio-ethanol and bio-diesel. Should we grow our biofuel crops in verifiable East Anglia or more efficient South America?13 但是，即便農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量和糧食儲(chǔ)備能夠恢復(fù)，還存在著更多令人擔(dān)憂的長(zhǎng)期的影響，它昭示一個(gè)食物價(jià)格將永遠(yuǎn)日趨昂貴的時(shí)代的來(lái)臨。從政治角度上看，最有爭(zhēng)議的做法就是從農(nóng)作物生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向生物燃料的生產(chǎn)。白宮在促進(jìn)生物燃料作物方面敢作敢為，但是其

28、他國(guó)家的政府或機(jī)構(gòu)，比如歐盟，也為促進(jìn)該新技術(shù)而確定了野心勃勃的目標(biāo)。美國(guó)用玉米生產(chǎn)出的乙醇從2000年的16億加侖增加到了2006年的50億加侖。布什總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)確定了到2017年生產(chǎn)350億加侖乙醇的中期目標(biāo)，直到實(shí)現(xiàn)政府到2030年生產(chǎn)600億加侖的最終目標(biāo)。巴西和印度尼西亞的批評(píng)家指責(zé)政府為了獲得生物乙醇和生物柴油而犧牲了糧食生產(chǎn)和生物多樣性。我們是否應(yīng)該在產(chǎn)量可核實(shí)的英格蘭東部地區(qū)或效率更高的南美洲種植生物燃料作物?Second, third and fourth-generation biofuels have a much greener impact, but, despite s

29、harply diverging claims, there is little doubt that current biofuel policy is affecting food prices to some extent. Climate change is another unknowable quantity that could transform everything for the worse. Teeming Bangladesh will perhaps be the most notable loser, an impact exacerbated by rising

30、sea levels. A few nations Argentina, Bolivia, South Africa will benefit from higher food prices because of the way their economies are structured.14 第二、三、四代生物燃料會(huì)更加環(huán)保，但是，盡管有非常尖銳的分歧意見(jiàn)，幾乎毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是，目前的生物燃料政策正在對(duì)食物的價(jià)格造成一定程度的影響。氣候變化是另外一個(gè)不可知的變量，它可能使所有情況變得更糟。人口眾多的孟加拉國(guó)也許會(huì)因不斷上升的海平面而成為最顯著的損失者。而只有幾個(gè)國(guó)家一如阿根廷、玻利維亞和南非一會(huì)因其經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)而從更高的食品價(jià)格中受益。The obvious move the worlds governments could make to alleviate the pain of higher prices seems as distant as ever. The World Trade Orga