人力資源專業(yè)國際貿(mào)易全冊配套完整課件

1、Slides prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.人力資源專業(yè)國際貿(mào)易人力資源專業(yè)國際貿(mào)易全冊配套完整課件全冊配套完整課件International Trade: Theory and Policy1-2Slides prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Chapter 1Introduction1-4Preview What is i

2、nternational economics about? What is international trade about? Why do we study international trade? How do we study international trade? International finance topics International trade vs. international finance 1-5I. What Is International Economics About? Nations are more closely linked through t

3、rade in goods and services, through flows of money, and through investment than ever before.（隨著國際商品和服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展、國際間資金的流動，以及跨國投資的發(fā)展，各個國家之間的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系變得更加緊密。） International economics is about how nations interact through trade in goods and services, through flows of money and through investment.國際經(jīng)濟學研究的是國際商品和服務(wù)

4、貿(mào)易的發(fā)展、國際間資金的流動，以及跨國投資的發(fā)展對各個國家的經(jīng)濟影響。國際經(jīng)濟學的一般理論包括國際貿(mào)易理論和政策、國際金融理論和國際投資理論等。1-6What Is International Economics About? (cont.) International trade as a fraction of the national economy has tripled(番了3倍) for the U.S. in the past 40 years. While both imports and exports have increased, imports have grown m

5、ore, leading to a large excess of imports over exports which is called as trade deficit (貿(mào)易逆差). Question: How is the United States able to pay for all those trade deficit? Compared to the U.S., other countries are even more tied to international trade.1-7Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage

6、 of U.S. National IncomeSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisFrom 1960s to 1980, both exports and imports rose steadily as shares of U.S. income.Since 1980, imports have continued to rise,while exports have fluctuated sharply.1-8Fig. 1-2: Exports and Imports as Percentage of National Income in 20

7、05Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentInternational trade iseven more importantto most other countriesthan it is to the United States.1-9II. What Is International Trade About? International trade is the international exchange(國際交換) of goods and services between countries. Th

8、is type of trade gives rise to a world economy, in which prices, or supply and demand, affect and are affected by global events. There are some types of international trade: Import trade, export trade, transit trade(過境貿(mào)易/轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易) Visible trade(有形貿(mào)易), invisible trade inter-industry trade(產(chǎn)業(yè)間貿(mào)易) , intra-

9、industry trade(產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易)1. What is International Trade1-10Basis for Trade(Why Trade Occurs?) The Mercantilists Views(重商主義) on Trade Trade Based on Absolute Advantage(絕對優(yōu)勢): the Adam Smith Model Trade Based on Comparative Advantage(比較優(yōu)勢): the David Ricardo Model Resource Endowments(資源稟賦) and Internation

10、al Trade: the Heckscher-Ohlin Theory Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition, and International Trade2. The Theory of International Trade1-11Patterns of Trade(Who sells what to whom?) That is, what commodities are traded and which commodities are exported and imported by each nation? Differences i

11、n climate and resources can explain why Brazil exports coffee and Australia exports iron ore. But why does Japan export automobiles, while the U.S. exports aircraft? Differences in labor productivity(勞動生產(chǎn)率) may explain why some countries export certain products. How relative supplies of capital, lab

12、or and land are used in the production of different goods and services may also explain why some countries export certain products.1-12Gains from Trade(貿(mào)易利得/收益)Several ideas underlie the gains from tradea. When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transaction(自愿參與交易), both receive something th

13、at they want and both can be made better off.（國與國之間相互銷售自己的產(chǎn)品和勞務(wù)通?？倢﹄p方都有利）Norwegian consumers could buy oranges through international trade that they otherwise would have a difficult time producing.The producer of the oranges receives income that it can use to buy the things that it desires.1-13Gains

14、 from Trade (cont.)b. Trade is predicted to benefit a country by making it more efficient when it exports goods which intensively use abundant resources and imports goods which intensively use scarce resources.（如果一個國家出口密集使用其豐富資源的商品，進口密集使用其稀缺資源的商品，那么該國會從這種貿(mào)易模式中受益。）c. When countries specialize, they m

15、ay also be more efficient due to large scale production.（當某些國家實現(xiàn)專業(yè)化生產(chǎn)時，他們可以從規(guī)?；a(chǎn)中獲得收益。）1-14Gains from Trade (cont.) d. Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways, but trade may harm particular groups (特定集團)within a country. International trade can adversely affect the owners

16、 of resources that are used intensively in industries that compete with imports.（與進口產(chǎn)品相競爭的產(chǎn)業(yè)密集使用的要素的所有者會因為貿(mào)易而受損）Trade may therefore have effects on the distribution of income within a country, such as workers and the owners of capital, skilled workers and unskilled workers.1-15Free Trade vs. Protect

17、ionism(How Much Trade?) The main idea of free trade(自由貿(mào)易) is that supply and demand factors, operating on a global scale, will ensure that production happens efficiently. Therefore, nothing needs to protect or promote trade and growth because market forces will do so automatically. In contrast, prot

18、ectionism(貿(mào)易保護主義) holds that regulation of international trade is important to ensure that markets function properly. Advocates of this theory believe that market inefficiencies may hamper the benefits of international trade and they aim to guide the market accordingly. 1-163. The Effects of Governm

19、ent Policies on Trade Policy makers affect the amount of trade through Tariffs(關(guān)稅): a tax on imports or exports, Quotas(配額) :a quantity restriction on imports or exports, export subsidies(出口補貼): a payment to producers that export, or through other regulations (ex., product specifications) that exclu

20、de foreign products from the market, but still allow domestic products. What are the costs and benefits of these policies?1-17III. Why Do We Study International Trade? International trade makes life more beautiful 一個牛肉與土豆的例子。如果世界上只有兩個人：養(yǎng)牛的一個牛肉與土豆的例子。如果世界上只有兩個人：養(yǎng)牛的人和種土豆的人。如果兩個人人和種土豆的人。如果兩個人“老死不相往來老死不

21、相往來”，那么，那么，在吃了幾個月烤牛肉、煮牛肉、炸牛肉和燒牛肉之后，養(yǎng)在吃了幾個月烤牛肉、煮牛肉、炸牛肉和燒牛肉之后，養(yǎng)牛人肯定覺得自己并不怎么愜意；同樣，一直吃土豆泥、牛人肯定覺得自己并不怎么愜意；同樣，一直吃土豆泥、炸土豆、烤土豆和用貝殼烘土豆的農(nóng)民肯定也有同感。如炸土豆、烤土豆和用貝殼烘土豆的農(nóng)民肯定也有同感。如果牛肉和土豆之間展開貿(mào)易，這時每個人就都可以有漢堡果牛肉和土豆之間展開貿(mào)易，這時每個人就都可以有漢堡包和炸薯條了。包和炸薯條了。1-18Why Do We Study InternationalTrade? (cont.) Knowledge on International

22、trade helps consumers consume rationally. 我們的日常生活被大量國外的消費品所占據(jù)，寶潔、沃爾我們的日常生活被大量國外的消費品所占據(jù)，寶潔、沃爾瑪、蘋果、三星、索尼、微軟、戴爾、奔馳、福特等等世瑪、蘋果、三星、索尼、微軟、戴爾、奔馳、福特等等世界知名品牌產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)成為我們生活中不可缺少的部分，國界知名品牌產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)成為我們生活中不可缺少的部分，國際貿(mào)易學相關(guān)知識的學習有助于我們正確認識、購買和消際貿(mào)易學相關(guān)知識的學習有助于我們正確認識、購買和消費國外產(chǎn)品。費國外產(chǎn)品。1-19Why Do We Study InternationalTrade? (cont.

23、) Knowledge on International trade helps producers organize production effectively. 中國作為世界市場的重要組成部分，承擔著世界分工的重中國作為世界市場的重要組成部分，承擔著世界分工的重要角色。在這樣的背景之下，生產(chǎn)者在生產(chǎn)決策、銷售市要角色。在這樣的背景之下，生產(chǎn)者在生產(chǎn)決策、銷售市場、資金運用上都必須考慮世界政治、經(jīng)濟因素，尤其是場、資金運用上都必須考慮世界政治、經(jīng)濟因素，尤其是出口部門的生產(chǎn)者更需要掌握國際貿(mào)易學的相關(guān)知識和理出口部門的生產(chǎn)者更需要掌握國際貿(mào)易學的相關(guān)知識和理論。論。1-20Why Do W

24、e Study InternationalTrade? (cont.) Knowledge on International trade help us to better understand and analyze the economic problems in China and world. 為什么我國的許多產(chǎn)業(yè)，屢屢遭受以美國為首的西方大國的為什么我國的許多產(chǎn)業(yè)，屢屢遭受以美國為首的西方大國的反傾銷？反傾銷？ 為什么政府面對我國近幾年不斷擴大的貿(mào)易順差情況不喜反為什么政府面對我國近幾年不斷擴大的貿(mào)易順差情況不喜反憂？憂？ 為什么一方面中國與日本在歷史問題上不斷產(chǎn)生摩擦，而另為什么一

25、方面中國與日本在歷史問題上不斷產(chǎn)生摩擦，而另一方面中日之間又不斷加深彼此間的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作？一方面中日之間又不斷加深彼此間的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作？ 為什么為什么2008年從美國開始的金融危機可以牽連到歐盟、日本、年從美國開始的金融危機可以牽連到歐盟、日本、韓國、中國等一系列國家和地區(qū)，最終引發(fā)一場規(guī)模巨大的韓國、中國等一系列國家和地區(qū)，最終引發(fā)一場規(guī)模巨大的國際金融危機？國際金融危機？1-21IV. How Do We Study International Trade? Read classic books and literatures on international trade, understand

26、the main idea of the Great Economists in this field. Mater the analysis methods and tools of international trade. Attach importance to foreign language learning and the relevant professional courses. Pay attention to domestic and world economic dynamics.1. Some Requirements2. The Great Economists in

27、 the field of International Trade 亞當亞當斯密斯密（Adam Smith，1723-1790）：Absolute Advantage Theory。1776年出版的“An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”國民財富的性質(zhì)和原因研究，簡稱國富論提出了絕對優(yōu)勢學說。 大衛(wèi)大衛(wèi)李嘉圖李嘉圖（David Ricardo ，1772-1823）：Comparative Advantage Theory。1817年出版政治經(jīng)濟學及賦稅原理（Principles of Political

28、Economy and Taxation）一書提出了比較優(yōu)勢學說。1-22 赫克歇爾赫克歇爾（E.F.Heckscher，1879-1952 ）和俄林俄林（B. Ohlin，1899-1979）1933年共同提出了要素稟賦理論（H-O 貿(mào)易模型）。他們的代表作是：外貿(mào)對收入分配的影響，區(qū)間貿(mào)易和國際貿(mào)易論。俄林1977年獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎。 P.A.薩繆爾森薩繆爾森（Paul Anthony Samuelson，1915- ）：用數(shù)學方法證明了要素價格均等化定理、與斯托爾珀一起提出了Stolper-Samuelson 定理，1970年獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎。 W.里昂惕夫里昂惕夫（WLeontie

29、f，1906-1999）：建立了投入產(chǎn)出分析模型，提出了里昂惕夫悖論，大大地推動了國際貿(mào)易理論的發(fā)展，1973年獲諾獎。 P.克魯格曼克魯格曼（P. Krugman，1953-）國際貿(mào)易新理論的主要倡導(dǎo)者，2008年獲諾獎。1-233. Analysis Tools in Theory and Policy of International Trade Production Possibilities Curve/Frontier Supply Curve and Excess Supply Curve Demand Curve and Excess Demand Curve Producer

30、 Surplus, Consumer Surplus, and Gains from Trade Economies of Scale, Diseconomies of Scale, Constant Returns to Scale Indifference Curve1-244. Analysis Methods in International Trade General Equilibrium Analysis and Partial Equilibrium Analysis(一般均衡分析和局部均衡分析) Economic Analysis of Politics(政治經(jīng)濟學分析)1-

31、251-26V. International Finance Topics Balance of Payments(國際收支) Exchange Rate Determination (匯率的決定) International Policy Coordination (國際政策協(xié)調(diào)) The International Capital Market (國際資本市場)1-27VI. International Trade vs. International Finance International trade focuses on transactions of goods and servi

32、ces(商品和服務(wù)交易) across nations. These transactions usually involve a physical movement of goods or a commitment of intangible resources like labor services. International finance focuses on financial or monetary transactions(金融或貨幣交易) across nations. For example, purchases of U.S. dollars or financial a

33、ssets by Europeans. In the real world there is no simple dividing line between trade and money. For example, many monetary events have important consequences for trade.1-28Textbook and ReferencesPaul R. Krugman, Maurice Obsfeld. International Economics: Theory and Policy, eighth edition, 清華大學出版社.Dom

34、inick Salvatore. International Economics, eighth edition, 清華大學出版社。Robert C. Feenstra, Alan M. Taylor. International Trade, first edition, 中國人民大學出版社。余淼杰：國際貿(mào)易學：理論、政策與實證，北京大學出版社，2013年12月第2次印刷版。 海聞、P林德特、王新奎：國際貿(mào)易，上海人民出版社，2003年第1版。1-29Some Related Websites中華人民共和國商務(wù)部中華人民共和國商務(wù)部 中國國際貿(mào)易促進委員會中國國際貿(mào)易促進委員會 www.cc

35、世界貿(mào)易組織世界貿(mào)易組織 聯(lián)合國商品貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)庫聯(lián)合國商品貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)庫 /db/dqQuickQuery.aspx世界銀行世界銀行 經(jīng)合發(fā)展組織經(jīng)合發(fā)展組織 人大經(jīng)濟論壇人大經(jīng)濟論壇中國經(jīng)濟學教育科研網(wǎng)中國經(jīng)濟學教育科研網(wǎng)http:/1-30Course Evaluation Class attendance 10% Class performance and homework 40% Final test 50%Slide

36、s prepared by Thomas BishopCopyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Chapter 2World Trade: An Overview2-32Preview The largest trading partners of the U.S. Gravity model（引力模型）: influence of an economys size on trade distance and other factors that influent trade Borders and trade agr

37、eements(邊界和貿(mào)易協(xié)定) Globalization(全球化): then and now Changing composition of trade(正在演變的貿(mào)易模式) Service outsourcing(服務(wù)外包)2-33Who Trades with Whom(誰和誰貿(mào)易)? The largest trading partners of the U.S. The 5 largest trading partners with the U.S. in 2006 were Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and Germany. The total

38、value imports from and exports to Canada in 2006 was about $500 billion dollars. The largest(top) 10 trading partners with the U.S. accounted for 68% of the value of U.S. trade in 2006.2-34Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006Source: U.S. Department of CommerceU.S. trademeasured as th

39、e sum of imports and exportsis mostly with 10 major partners. These 10 economies(top 10 trading partners) accounted for 68 percent of the value of U.S. trade in 2006.2-35Size Matters: The Gravity Model(規(guī)模問題：引力模型) The top 3 trading partners with the U.S. are Canada, China, Mexico. 3 of the top 10 tra

40、ding partners with the U.S. in 2006 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France. Why does the U.S. trade most with these European countries and not other European countries? These countries have the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe(they are the three largest Eur

41、opean Economies).2-36Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United StatesSource: U.S. Department of Commerce,European CommissionThe scatter of points clusteredaround the dotted 45-degreeline, which means that, eachcountrys share of U.S. trade with Europe was

42、roughlyequal to that countrysshare of European GDP.That is, the value of tradebetween any two countriesis proportional to the twocountries GDPs.分布在45度線周圍的散點表明，美國與歐洲某一國家之間的貿(mào)易規(guī)模與兩國的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模成正比。2-37Size Matters: The Gravity Model (cont.) In fact, the size of an economy is directly related to the volume of

43、imports and exports. (貿(mào)易規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟規(guī)模直接相關(guān)) The trade between any two economies is larger, the larger is either economy. Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more income from the goods and services sold, so people are ab

44、le to buy more imports.2-38The Gravity Model In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that only size and distance(經(jīng)濟規(guī)模和距離) are important for trade in the following way:Tij = A x Yi x Yj /DijWhere Tij is the value of trade between country i and country j，A is a constant，Yi the GDP of country i，Yj

45、 is the GDP ofcountry j，Dij is the distance between country i and country j. The value of trade between any two countries is proportional to the two countries GDPs, and diminishes with the distance between the two countries. 兩國之間的貿(mào)易規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟規(guī)模成正比，與兩國之間的距離成反比。2-39The Gravity Model (cont.) In a slightly m

46、ore general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is Tij = A x Yia x Yjb /Dijcwhere a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1. This equation says that the three things determine the volume of trade between two countries are the size of the two countries GDPs and the distance between the

47、countries, without specifically as assuming that（放松了假設(shè)） trade is proportional to the two GDPs and inversely proportional to distance.2-40The Gravity Model (cont.)u Distance(距離) between markets increases costs of transportation and services, and therefore the cost of imports and exports. There is a s

48、trong negative effect of distance on international trade. Distance may also influence personal contact and communication, which may influence trade. Ex. The United States North American neighbors trade so much with U.S. than its European partners.2-41The Gravity Model (cont.)Other things besides siz

49、e of economy and distance matter for trade: 1. Cultural affinity(文化相似度): if two countries have cultural ties, it is likely that they also have strong economic ties.uBecause of cultural affinity, Ireland trade considerably more with the U.S. than a gravity model predicted.2. Geography(地理位置): ocean ha

50、rbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation and trade easier.uRotterdam in Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium are the famous ports in Europe).2-42The Gravity Model (cont.)3. Borders(邊界): crossing borders involves formalities (手續(xù)) that take time and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs. 4.

51、Trade Agreement(貿(mào)易協(xié)定): if a trade agreement is effective, it should lead to significantly more trade among its partners given their GDPs and distance from one another.5. Multinational corporations (跨國公司) :corporations spread across different nations import and export many goods between their divisio

52、ns.2-43Distance,Barriers(壁壘),and Borders Why do the United States North American neighbors trade so much more with the United States than its European partners? Estimates of the effect of distance from the gravity model predict that a 1% increase in the distance between countries is associated with

53、a decrease in the volume of trade of 0.7% to 1%. Besides distance, borders increase the cost and time needed to trade.2-44Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Tradewith the United StatesSource: U.S. Deparment of Commerce,European CommissionThe United States does markedly more trade with its neighbors thanit

54、does with Europeaneconomies of thesame size.美國與其鄰國的貿(mào)易量明顯大于其和相同大小的歐洲經(jīng)濟體的貿(mào)易量。2-45Distance,Barriers,and Borders(cont.) Trade agreements between countries are intended to reduce the formalities and tariffs needed to cross borders, and therefore to increase trade. The U.S. signed a free trade agreement w

55、ith Mexico and Canada in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA，北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定). Because of NAFTA and because Mexico and Canada are close to the U.S., the amount of trade between the U.S. and its northern neighbors as a fraction of GDP is larger than between the U.S. and European countries.2

56、-46Distance,Barriers,and Borders(cont.) Yet even with a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada, which use a common language, the border between these countries still seems to be associated with a reduction in trade. Ex. The trade between British Columbia and a Canadian province is much lar

57、ger than trade with an equally distant U.S. state. That is, borders have large negative effect on trade(邊界對貿(mào)易具有負面效應(yīng)).2-47Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia2-48Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996加拿大其他省與英屬哥倫比亞省之間的貿(mào)易額隨著距離的增加而減少；美國各州

58、與加拿大哥倫比亞省之間的貿(mào)易額也隨著距離的增加而減少；加拿大英屬哥倫比亞省與國內(nèi)各省之間的貿(mào)易都遠大于它同美國距離相當?shù)闹莸馁Q(mào)易（WHY?）。2-49Has the World Become “Smaller”? The negative effect of distance on trade according to the gravity models is significant, but it has grown smaller (距離對貿(mào)易的影響越來越小)over time due to modern transportation and communication. For exa

59、mple, the internet makes instant and almost free communication possible between people thousands of miles distant, while jet transport allows quick physical access to all parts of the globe. Progress in technologies have increased trade. But history has shown that political factors, such as wars, ca

60、n change trade patterns much more than innovations in transportation and communication. (戰(zhàn)爭等政治因素制約著貿(mào)易的發(fā)展)2-50Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differen