太陽(yáng)能光伏發(fā)電的未來(lái) Photovoltaic Solar Energy

1、Photovoltaic Solar EnergyFuturesPresented to the Minnesota Futurists16 May 2021 Dick Saunders and David KeenanBut first a word from our sponsorThe Futurist Toolof the dayTrend Analysis and ExtrapolationTrend Analysis & ExtrapolationA Method Everyone Uses Trend analysis involves the use of any of a v

2、ariety of techniques based on historical data. Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us. Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is and what its implications might be. You c

3、ould first look at historical data ://goertzel/futuristmethods.htmTrend Analysis & ExtrapolationTrend Analysis & Extrapolation Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend forward. You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes contin

4、ue indefinitely? Are there upper limits to the trend? What other forces may affect the trend? At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than objective extrapolation of historical data. Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will continue in t

5、he same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future. It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd results. ://goertzel/futuristmethods.htmTrends to Analyze in This TalkSolar Cells Market sizeMarket shareS

6、ales UnitsPower producedCost per power deliveredAgendaThe SunSolar CellsBackgroundHow they workTypesMarketsCostsCountriesCompaniesQuestionsNow on with the showEnergy from the SunAbout half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earths surface.The Earth receives 174petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incom

7、ing solar radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses. Earths land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land masse

8、s keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14C. By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil fuels are derived. :/Breakdown of incoming solar energy ://wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_s

9、olar_energy.svgEnergy from the SunYearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption The total solar energy absorbed by Earths atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year. (70% of incoming sunlight) (1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry

10、, cool air by 1 C) Primary energy use (2005) 487EJ (0.0126%) Electricity (2005) 56.7EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target 2002, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000EJ per year in biomass. The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of

11、 the planet is so vast that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of the Earths non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and mined uranium combined.As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues. :/Solar Cells Background1839 - French physicist A. E

12、. Becquerel first recognized the photovoltaic effect.Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions. 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors, ac

13、cidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very sensitive to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson, invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar cells with a sunl

14、ight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1 :/PV Solar for ElectricityPhotovoltaicsFor the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid. (The F

15、und for Renewable Energy Everywhere) Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing market for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than 2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply, refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs,

16、and the cost of extending the utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.A one kilowatt PV system* each month: prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed keeps NO and SO2

17、from being released into the environment * in Colorado, or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per month :/How Solar Cells Work ://wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svgPhotons in sunlight hit the solar panel and are absorbed by semiconducting materials, such

18、 as silicon. Electrons (negatively charged) are knocked loose from their atoms, allowing them to flow through the material to produce electricity. An array of solar cells converts solar energy into a usable amount of direct current (DC) electricity. Solar Cells BackgroundThree generations of solar c

19、ellsSolar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the order of which each became important. At present there is concurrent research into all three generations while the first generation technologies are most highly represented in commercial production, accounting for 89.6% of 200

20、7 production. :/Solar Cells BackgroundFirst Generation Single Junction Silicon Cells89.6% of 2007 Production 45.2% Single Crystal Si 42.2% Multi-crystal SILarge-area, high quality and single junction devices. High energy and labor inputs which limit significant progress in reducing production costs.

21、 Single junction silicon devices are approaching theoretical limit efficiency of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel energy generation after a payback period of 57 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiencyMulti-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency :/ and Solar Generati

22、on V Report Sept 08Silicon Cell Average EfficiencySolar Cells BackgroundSecond Generation Thin Film Cells CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 ProductionNew materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated by constituent ma

23、terial requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glass cover. Thin film cells use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors compared to First Generation cells.The most successful second generation materials have been cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorpho

24、us silicon and micromorphous silicon. Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult. 2007 - First Solar produced 200MW of CdTe solar cells, 5th largest producer in 2007 and the first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone. 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialize

25、d its CIGS technology producing 15MW. 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production . capacity of 430MW for 2021 in the USA and Germany. 2021 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.CdTe 8 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated) CIGS 7-11% efficiency (20%

26、 demonstrated)Payback time 1 year in Europe :/ and Solar Generation V Report Sept 08Solar Cells BackgroundThird Generation Multi-junction CellsThird generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical performance of second generation (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very low production

27、costs.Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% while retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energy threshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under the maximal ar

28、tificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns).Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of multijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum, the use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier collection, or the use of the infrar

29、ed spectrum for night-time operation.Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot use diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardwareMulti-junction cells 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated) :/ and Solar Generation V Report Sept 08Global Cumulative PV PowerGlobal Annual PV M

30、arketSolar Cell Market Estimate- First Generation - - Second Generation - - Third Gen -SEMI PV Group March 2021 from source Yole Development Global Annual PV Market OutlookSolar PV Market OutlookSEMI PV Group March 2021 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864

31、 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity Cost Projections EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08$1.35$1.07$0.81$0.54$0.27$0.13 -$/kWh“Grid parity where PV cost are equal to residential electricity costs is expected to be achieved first in southern European countries and then to move northCumul

32、ative installed solar electric power by 20071st Germany 3.8 GW 2nd Japan 1.9 GW3rd US 814 MW4th Spain 632 MWWorlds largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants (12 MW or larger)1 Name of PV power plantCountry DCPeakPower(MW) GWh/year Notes Olmedilla Photovoltaic ParkSpain6085Completed September 2008Puerto

33、llano Photovoltaic ParkSpain502008Moura photovoltaic power stationPortugal4693Completed December 2008Waldpolenz Solar ParkGermany4040550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe modules. Completed Dec 2008Arnedo Solar PlantSpain34Completed October 2008Merida/Don Alvaro Solar ParkSpain30Completed September 200

34、817 more 2 moreSpainKoreaAvg 20Avg 20KoethenGermany14.7513200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe modules. Completed Dec 2008Nellis Solar Power PlantUSA14.023070,000 solar panelsPlanta Solar de Salamanca6 more Spain, 1 US, 1 GermanySpain13.8Avg 12n.a.70,000 Kyocera panels :/Large systems in planning or u

35、nder constructionName of PlantCountryDCPeakPower(MW)GWh/year Notes Rancho Cielo Solar FarmUSA600Thin film silicon from Signet Solar*Topaz Solar Farm USA5501,100Thin film silicon from OptiSolar *High Plains Ranch USA250550Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with tracking *Mildura Solar concentrator

36、power stationAustralia154270Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from Spectrolab*KCRD Solar FarmUSA80Scheduled to be completed in 2012 *DeSoto County, FloridaUSA25To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy, completion date 2009.*Davidson County solar farmUSA21.536 individual structures*Cdiz sol

37、ar power plantSpain20.136*Kennedy Space Center, FloridaUSA10To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy, completion date 2010.* Under construction; * Proposed :/SpainBlessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spains socialist government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource. In an effort t

38、o encourage private individuals and companies to install solar power, Spain introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt per hour ($0.57/KWhr) (feed-in tariff and off-grid subsidies)But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in September, a move which is likely to face opposition f

39、rom within the solar energy industry.2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021Olmedilla Solar Park60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikin=572Germany10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV80 companies are cell

40、and module makers42,000 employeesSales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exportsThe feed-in tariff 2021 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on type and size of system for new solar systemsUtilities pass cost to consumers Germany average is $1.65/month Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021Wa

41、ldpolenz Solar ParkThe Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200 soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into the power grid when fully operational in 2021.In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will have a capacity

42、of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operates the installation.The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-film technology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which 350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in the PV solar mod

43、ules will be converted into alternating current and fed completely into the power grid.After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy needed to build it, according to the Juwi group. :/ dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.htmlWaldpolenz Solar Park :/ dw-world.de/dw/arti

44、cle/0,2144,3430319,00.htmlWaldpolenz Solar Park :/lumbergusa /main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpgUnited States2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US marketUS leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly half the global production2007 about 50,000 employeesCA d

45、ominates with 60% of installed capacityVarious state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives. Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs to grid parity by 2021 Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021Renewable Energy Consumption i

46、n the US Energy Supply, 2007Chart Data Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nations Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu) ConsumptionShareTotal US101.545 Coal22.77622% Natural Gas23.63723% Petroleum39.77339% Nuclear Electric Power8.4158% Renewable Energy:6.8137% Of which: Hydro

47、electric2.44636% Geothermal Energy0.3495% Biomass3.59653% Solar Energy0.0811% Wind Energy0.3415%US Solar Industry DataSize of U.S. Market2021 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity. 1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV), 418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power, 485 MWTh

48、 (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems 7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007. 1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MWGrowth of U.S. Market 2021 - more than 18,000 indivi

49、dual PV systems were installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected. Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2021 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacity grew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Results preliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institut

50、e) and Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs, energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of sol

51、ar energy has exploded since 2005.Nellis AFB Solar panels ://wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpgGM installs worlds biggest rooftop solar panels The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain. With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of

52、 85,000 lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to be installed on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plants across Europe

53、, unveiled the 50M ($68M) project yesterday. The power station should be producing energy by September.The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatt hours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with an average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of th

54、e GM factory. The solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be the largest rooftop solar array in the world. GM installs worlds biggest rooftop solar panels Japan2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable

55、 energy supply, environmental suitability and use of market mechanismsBy 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes2021 New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to 40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021China2007 National Renewable Energy target

56、s 10% by 2021 (300 MW)15% by 2021 (1.8 GW)Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companiesSupplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companiesNumber 1 PV panel producer 1.1 GW 50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG82,800 employees (6 ti

57、mes that of 2005) Solar Generation V Report Sep 2021Top 10 PV Cell ProducersUntil recently BP Solar was dominant supplier.New Top 10 produce 53% of world totalQ-Cells, SolarWorld - GermanySharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo JapanSuntech, Yingli, JA Solar ChinaMotech - TaiwanBP SolarBP Solar to supply PV po

58、wer systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2021 Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain the systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no up front capital cost to the retailer. Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart

59、 locations in California, and would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects. Expects to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18 months. 2021 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sams Clubs in CA. Since 1998, BP guarantee

60、s its modules for 25 years.BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000 employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries, BP Solar is one of the worlds leading solar companies. BP is one of the worlds largest energy companies, in more th