TeachingStatisticsByExample

1、Teaching Statistics By ExampleLisa M Sullivan, PhDBoston University1OutlineStatistics in the NewsThe Introductory Statistics RequirementCourse ContentRecent Efforts at ReformModifications?Examples for Specific Topics2News Week of May 29, 2006Preserve brain function with spicy foods.Kicking your food

2、 up a notch with spices could preserve brain function and keep your brain sharp and strong as you age.Turmeric, a spice that lends curries their yellow tint, can curb mental decline and even slow the effects of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimers.3News Week of May 29, 2006Education linked

3、to better fathers studyU.S. data shows trend between education and time spent with kidsWell-educated men tend to make better fathers, according a new U.S. government report on fatherhood. 4News Week of May 29, 2006U.S. Releases Bird Flu Response Plan - Details outline containment policies; focus on

4、worst-case scenarios may spread fear, experts sayBreast Cancer Survivors Lax About Mammograms - Only 33% get them annually for five years after diagnosis, study finds5News Week of May 29, 2006The FDA issued a long-awaited approval on a new human growth product.Approval of Omnitrope, made by Sandoz,

5、was announced Tuesday in a statement on the FDAs Web site.Omnitrope, also known as somatropin, is a hormone used to treat growth disorders in children and adults.6Statistics RequirementNumerical literacyProvide quantitative foundations for study in specific disciplinesUnderstand and interpret dataPe

6、rform independent research7Careers in StatisticsBusiness and Industry (Manufacturing, Marketing, Engineering)Health and Medicine (Public Health, Clinical Trials, Epidemiology, Genetics, Health Communication)Government (Census, Surveys)AcademiaSocial SciencesHealth InsuranceDemand for statisticians f

7、ar exceeds supply today and this is expected to increase through 2008.8The Introductory Statistics CourseDifficult and frustrating for studentsDifficult and frustrating for instructorsHundreds of thousands of undergraduates across a variety of majors are required to take statistics - most not mathem

8、atically inclined9Typical Course ContentDescriptive Statistics Classification of VariablesMeans, Standard Deviations, MediansGraphical DisplaysPrinciples of ProbabilityProbability ModelsBinomial, Poisson, NormalCentral Limit Theorem10Course ContentEstimationPoint EstimatesMargin of ErrorPrecisionHyp

9、othesis TestingHypothesesTest StatisticCritical RegionLevel of Significance, P-values11Course ContentAssociations Between VariablesRegression AnalysisAnalysis of VarianceChi-Square Tests12Reforms in Undergraduate Education in StatisticsNSF funded various projects to improve teaching of undergraduate

10、 statistics coursesMay 1999 the ASAs Undergraduate Statistics Education Initiative (USEI) was launched 13Focus of the ReformEmphasize concepts over proceduresTeach students to:Formulate research questionsCollect dataAnalyze dataInterpret results14Focus of the ReformGain experience working with real

11、dataFocus on active learningBuild communication skillsMAJOR FOCUS on statistical literacy/ statistical thinking15Statistical ThinkingProcess of using wide ranging and interacting data to understand processes, problems, and solutions. The opposite of one factor at a time, where ones natural born tend

12、ency is to change one factor and “see” what happens. Statistical thinking is the tendency to want to understand how several control factors may be interacting at once to produce an outcome. Common cause variation becomes your friend and special cause variation your enemy. Attribute judgments of good

13、 and bad are replaced with estimates of significance with given confidence.-Six Sigma 16Statistical ThinkingRecognize and attempt to understand/explain variationThe process of asking a “good” question, collecting, analyzing and interpreting data and appropriately recognizing limitationsHow do we tea

14、ch statistical thinking?17Recommendations for InstructorsProvide working examples that include questions and processes to solve statistical problemsAllow students to practice using statistical thinking with open-ended questions and problemsUse technology to collect, manage and analyze data18Recommen

15、dations for InstructorsUse real dataChoose data and questions that are of interest to studentsReduce content to focus on key concepts in greater detail19Whats MissingStudy Design Issues and ImplicationsReal DataInterpretation of ResultsPractical ImplicationsLimitations of InferencesStatistical Compu

16、ting20Limitations/InterpretationAssociation is not causationStatistical significance is not practical importanceLack of statistical significance does not imply no differenceUnderstand how to interpret news stories/articles with statistical information21Modifications?Include design and analysis issue

17、s in curriculumSharpen skills in interpretation of resultsInclude projects with real dataStress communication skillsFocus more on big picture22Big PictureWhat is a statistical study?How is sample constructed?What are the key questions?How is information collected analyzed interpreted?What makes a go

18、od study?A poorly analyzed study can be re-analyzed. A poorly designed study cannot be re-designed.23Biostatistics A specialized branch of applied mathematics/statistics that deals with the statistical evaluation of experimental research or clinical trial results.Statistical applications in the medi

19、cal or public health arena.24BiostatisticsMathematics/StatisticsMedicine/Public HealthBiostatisticsComputer Science25ExamplesWhat proportion of college students drink alcohol, use illegal drugs?Should driving age be increased?Are cell phones safe for children?How can we address these questions?26Res

20、earch TeamsPrincipal Investigator (Clinicians, Scientists)Statistician/BiostatisticianCo-InvestigatorsProject ManagerStatistical ProgrammersResearch Assistants27Statisticians Role on TeamDevelop Study DesignResearch questionStudy sampleSample sizeEnrollment/Follow-up strategiesOn-going monitoringPer

21、form Interim and Final AnalysisInterpret and Report Results28Cell Phones for Children?University of Washington scientist states 70-80% of the energy emitted from the antenna of a mobile phone is absorbed in the head: Childrens skulls are thinner and their growing brains may be much more susceptible

22、to radiation exposure. FDA states that scientific evidence does not show a danger to users of wireless communication devices including children. 29Study of Cell Phone SafetyWhat is the outcome?What is exposure/risk factor?How can we assess relationship between cell phone use and health outcomes?Stud

23、y DesignData Collection and AnalysisInterpretation/Attribution30Issues for BiostatisticiansChildren - Obesity, Immunizations, Asthma, Autism.Adolescents Alcohol & Tobacco Use, Depression, STDs, Traffic Accidents.Adults Cancer, CVD, Substance Abuse, HIV/AIDS, Mental HealthWhat is #1 killer of men and

24、 women in US?What are the risk factors?31Research Set ContextFramingham Heart StudyPharmacologic Clinical Trials in Children with AutismEffect of Alcohol Exposure in Pregnancy on SIDS32The Framingham Heart Study5000+ men and women enrolled in 1948Longitudinal cohort studyExams every 2 years for card

25、iovascular risk factors - surveillanceAncillary studies hearing, exercise, nutrition, neurological studies5000+ offspring & spouses enrolled in 1976Third generation enrolled in 200233Milestones from Framingham1960 Cigarette smoking increases risk of heart disease 1961 Cholesterol & blood pressure in

26、crease risk of heart disease 1967 Physical activity reduces risk of heart disease, obesity increases risk of heart disease 1970 High blood pressure increases risk of stroke1978 Psychosocial factors increases heart disease 1988 High levels of HDL cholesterol reduces risk of deathMore than 1500 scient

27、ific papers published34Framingham Study Risk FunctionsRisk prediction models Predict likelihood that a person will have coronary heart disease in the next 10 yearsModels designed to include risk factors that are readily availableAge, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, treatment for hype

28、rtension & high cholesterol, obesityRisk Calculator35Clinical Trial in Children with AutismAutism-brain disorder usually diagnosed before age 3 that affects communication, social interaction, and creative play.Affects over 500,000 children in the USTrial to assess the efficacy of drug treatment in r

29、educing repetitive behaviorsChildren randomized to receive study drug or placebo 36Clinical Trial in Children with Autism144 children with autism aged 5-17 years followed every 2 weeks for 12 weeks for improvements in repetitive behaviorsIssues Randomization/BlindingMeasurement of outcome (child, pa

30、rent, teacher)Safety/Ethical issues37Effect of Alcohol Exposure in Pregnancy on SIDSSIDS Unexplained infant death before 1 year of lifeExtremely high rates of SIDS among American Indians in Northern Plains of North and South Dakota and in Cape Town South AfricaHigh rates of alcohol consumption38Effe

31、ct of Alcohol Exposure in Pregnancy on SIDSSIDS 0.57/1000 in US 3.4/1000 in Northern Plains 3.5/1000 in Cape TownIn US 13% of women report drinking alcohol in pregnancy 58% in Northern Plains 41% in Cape Town39Effect of Alcohol Exposure in Pregnancy on SIDSStudy of 12,000 pregnant women in Northern

32、Plains and Cape TownAssess relationship between alcohol and SIDS IssuesMeasuring alcohol exposureEthical Issues e.g., Autopsies40Examples for Specific TopicsConditional ProbabilityPerformance of screening tests for prenatal diagnosis, prostate cancer, breast cancer, HIV41Prenatal DiagnosisYour family is pregnant should you have a screening test?Standard of Care in the US is serum screen68% sensitivi