OC約束理論瓶頸管理八講項(xiàng)目管理與工程

1、GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM高瑞特衛(wèi)星節(jié)目SESSION 3第三講PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING項(xiàng)目管理與工程So we meet again and the subject of today is fascinating. 我們又見面了，今天的主題很吸引人。Project management. 項(xiàng)目管理。I dont know any subject that is so diversified as project management. 項(xiàng)目管理是我所見過最多樣化的主題。Think about it. Constructio

2、n of a building is a project. 想想看，蓋一棟建筑物是項(xiàng)目。Launching a marketing program in a new territory, a project. 在一個全新的領(lǐng)域推出營銷計(jì)劃是項(xiàng)目，Implementing an ELP system, a huge project. 導(dǎo)入ERP系統(tǒng)是很大的項(xiàng)目。But it becomes even more interesting when we bear in mind that how whole section of organizations, of all organizations

3、 which are multi project environments. 不過，如果一想到所有的組織都是多項(xiàng)目的環(huán)境，這個主題就變得更有趣了。Take for example a software house. That is a multi project environment. 例如，軟件公司就是多項(xiàng)目的環(huán)境。As a matter of fact, all of engineering is multi project. 實(shí)際上，所有的工程都是多項(xiàng)目。The first thing that comes to mind, what do you think, is there an

4、ything that really connects them besides the name. 一提到多項(xiàng)目，你立刻想到是否真的顧名思義，有個事物把這些項(xiàng)目連結(jié)在一起？Can we deal with all of them at the same time. 我們是否能同時(shí)處理所有的項(xiàng)目？Are there enough things which are common. 它們彼此間是否有足夠的共通性？I think that the best way is to ask people what is your problem in the field of project manage

5、ment. 我想最好的方法就是問人：“你在項(xiàng)目管理的領(lǐng)域中碰到什么問題？”Well, if you notice people who are deeply messed in projects are experts in bitching and moaning. 嗯，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)那些深受項(xiàng)目所苦的人，往往非常擅于抱怨和發(fā)牢騷。And they have good reasons for it. 他們的理由相當(dāng)充分。So ask them what really bothers them. 你可以問他們，究竟什么問題讓他們感到困擾。Amazingly enough you will find

6、out that no matter what is the environment of the project, it can be a construction company, it can be engineering of new products, or it can be putting out a movie which is a huge product, the complaints have enormous similarities. 你會很驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn)，無論是建設(shè)公司、新產(chǎn)品的工程、電影制作等不同的項(xiàng)目，人們的抱怨都大同小異。For example, let me s

7、how you a list that I got form a friend of mine, who had a lot of experience in projects, and this list was not picked up because it was unique, it is a list that this person had composed within three minutes. 舉例來說，你看看我朋友列的這張表，他對于項(xiàng)目有相當(dāng)豐富的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，我選這張表不是因?yàn)樗塥?dú)特，他只花了三分鐘就完成這張表。It shows you how good he is at

8、bitching and moaning. 看了這張表，你就會知道他多么擅于抱怨和發(fā)牢騷。Lets look on this list. 我們來看這張表。For example, one of the complaints that he wrote is usually original due dates are not met. 他寫的第一個抱怨是項(xiàng)目通常無法在原本的到期日完工。Somebody promised to the client, we will not talk about how we promise to the client. 某人向客戶承諾，在這里我們不討論如何向客

9、戶承諾。Now we have to deliver, we are doing our best, not always we are succeeding in meeting it. 現(xiàn)在我們必須遵守約定，我們盡最大的努力，但往往無法如期完成。For example, by the way, when I have talked with the Israeli armed forces, I have spent a lot of time doing reserve duty there, they have claimed that there is not such a thin

10、g as a project finished on time or budget or original content. 舉例來說，我在執(zhí)行后備軍人勤務(wù)時(shí)，曾和以色列軍隊(duì)討論這件事，他們宣稱沒有一個項(xiàng)目能符合預(yù)定的時(shí)間、預(yù)算、和內(nèi)容。Such an animal does not exist. 這種動物根本不存在。When I talked with the American Air Force, the top generals there then said, we always finish the project on time. On the last time, on the

11、final date, but we have changed the final date 4 times. 我在跟美國空軍討論時(shí)，上將說：“我們總是能在最后一刻準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成項(xiàng)目，只不過到期日已經(jīng)改了四次?！盜t is called recovering plans. 這叫做更新計(jì)劃。I think that everybody is aware that this danger or this undesirable effect exists. 我認(rèn)為大家都知道這種危機(jī)或不良效應(yīng)確實(shí)存在。Lets see some other complaints. 我們來看其它的抱怨。For exampl

12、e, a second very frequent complaint is there are too many changes. 舉例來說，第二個常見的抱怨是太多變更。We started a project, we thought that we have done quite a good job of scoping it out before that, as a matter of that we took a lot of time to do it. 我們在項(xiàng)目開始前，自認(rèn)為已經(jīng)做好規(guī)劃的工作，實(shí)際上，真的花了很多時(shí)間。And then we start to do it a

13、nd immediately changes start to appear. 等到我們開始動手的時(shí)候，馬上就出現(xiàn)變更。All the time.每次都是這樣。Another complaint is too often resources are not available when needed even if they were promised. 另一種抱怨是即使事先都說好了，但是你需要的資源就是會短缺。Went here. They promised to have three people at that time. 進(jìn)度到此時(shí)，他們答應(yīng)派三個人來。The time has com

14、e, we are lucky if we have two. 時(shí)間到了，如果有兩個人來我們就算很幸運(yùn)了。How many times it happens to you. Often. 這種情形你碰過多少次？ 經(jīng)常如此。More. Necessary things are not always available on time. 此外，需要的東西往往無法準(zhǔn)時(shí)送達(dá)。When I am talking about necessary things they are components of things needed to get from outside even from subcont

15、ractors or vendors, or even things like permissions. 所謂需要的東西，包括從承包商或供貨商購得的零件、或甚至是許可證。You know so many times we have to get permissions in order to do some task, permission from authorities internally or externally. 你知道在很多時(shí)候，我們必須得到內(nèi)部或外部的許可，才能開始執(zhí)行某項(xiàng)任務(wù)。And we have done everything for that and then the

16、permission didnt come on time and now we have to really jump through hoops. 我們已經(jīng)為此做好萬全的準(zhǔn)備，但是無法準(zhǔn)時(shí)拿到許可證，現(xiàn)在我們真的得面臨嚴(yán)酷的考驗(yàn)。Another thing. There are fights about priorities between projects. 另一個問題是項(xiàng)目與項(xiàng)目間的優(yōu)先級會引發(fā)爭議。And this is very, very common when we are dealing with multi project environment. 這種現(xiàn)象在多項(xiàng)目的環(huán)境下

17、，實(shí)在不足為奇。And even when we are talking about a single project many times the recourses involved have other things to do besides the project and then you have fights all the time. 即使我們討論的是單一的項(xiàng)目，很多時(shí)候相關(guān)的資源也會牽涉到其它事物，于是你必須一直爭取。Are you aware of such things, oh, yeah. 你是否注意過這些事情？ 是的。More. There are budget ov

18、er-runs. 還有超出預(yù)算的問題。Sometimes startling budget over-runs. 有時(shí)候超出的預(yù)算金額相當(dāng)驚人。As a matter of fact whenever we have a project that finishes in budget it is in the newspapers. 事實(shí)上，如果有個項(xiàng)目能在預(yù)算內(nèi)完成，就可以上報(bào)了。It is news. 就是新聞。More. There is too much re-work. 還有，重做的工作太多。What is the meaning of re-work. 重做是什么意思？We hav

19、e done something later it turned out that the specs were not correct, we have to do it again. 我們做了某件事，結(jié)果規(guī)格不對，所以必須再做一次。And again. 然后再做一次。In some places they are saying that is the biggest killer. 有些人認(rèn)為這是項(xiàng)目最大的殺手。Did you notice something amazing? 你是否發(fā)現(xiàn)一件令人驚訝的事？Who wrote this list? You?這張表是誰寫的？ 是你嗎？It i

20、s unbelievable. 真是不可思議！Even though the projects are so diversified the complaints are the same. 即使項(xiàng)目種類眾多，但是抱怨都大同小異。Is it a full list? Of course not. 這張表完整嗎？ 當(dāng)然不是。Just allow any project manager or somebody working on project the freedom to complain and he will go on forever. 只要讓任何項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理或負(fù)責(zé)項(xiàng)目的人自由抱怨，他絕對可

21、以讓這張表無限延伸。But these are typical things. 不過這都是很典型的問題。Does it mean that if the problems are the same in the projects that the cause for them are the same. 這是否意謂著每個項(xiàng)目的問題相同，造成問題背后的原因就會相同呢？Not necessarily. 不見得。And that is very important to find out. 找出這一點(diǎn)非常重要。Because by now you all know the first questio

22、n always is- what to change? 因?yàn)榈侥壳盀橹梗銈兌贾赖谝粋€問題永遠(yuǎn)是：要改變什么？And in order to answer it we have to find the core problem. 我們必須先找出核心問題才能回答。The things that cause all the undesirable effects. 究竟是什么原因造成所有不良效應(yīng)？I will use this opportunity because it is already the third in the session to show you how do you go

23、 from this ocean of undesirable effects into finding what is the thing at the bottom, what is the cause for all of them, how do you find it at all. 這已經(jīng)是第三講了，所以我想利用這個機(jī)會，告訴你究竟該如何從不良效應(yīng)中找出原因。Well, the techniques is very simple. 嗯，技巧非常簡單。Simply because of the way that we as human beings are operating. 因?yàn)?/p>

24、我們?nèi)说男袨榫褪沁@樣。Do you know what do we call an undesirable effect? 你知道什么是不良效應(yīng)嗎？You know one of these things that we have seen. Its actually a title for a situation where we find ourselves in a conflict, where we find ourselves between a rock and a hard place. 我們剛剛看到，其實(shí)就是我們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己碰到?jīng)_突，陷于進(jìn)退兩難的局面。And what come

25、s out from our mouths as things that bother us is actually a title for this conflict. 我們口中說的讓我們感到困擾的事情，其實(shí)是指這個沖突的名稱。So what you do is the following. 所以你要做的事如下。You take any one of these complaints, it does not matter which one, and you start to ask the person- what bothers you here. 你隨便挑一種抱怨，然后問這個人：“什

26、么事情讓你感到困擾？”What conflict are you complaining about? 你抱怨的是什么樣的沖突？What is the thing which you put yourself between the rock and a hard place that you have just mentioned. 什么事情讓你陷于進(jìn)退兩難的局面？And with few questions you get it. 問了幾個問題后，你就會得到答案。Let me show you, for example. 我先示范一下。Usually original due dates

27、are not met. 項(xiàng)目通常無法在原本的到期日完工。Then I ask the person that gave me the list- so what? 然后我問寫這張表的人：“那又怎么樣？”He said- what do you mean so what? 他說：“那又怎么樣是什么意思？”He said- look when we see that we are about to miss a due date, now we have to take some corrective actions. 他說：“如果我們發(fā)現(xiàn)可能無法在到期日完工，就必須先做一些補(bǔ)正措施?！盕ine

28、. What are the corrective actions? 很好，什么樣的補(bǔ)正措施？He said it depends, but, for example, my corrective actions is to give up of some of the content of the project. 他說：“視情況而定，不過我的補(bǔ)正措施通常是放棄項(xiàng)目里的一些內(nèi)容?！盬e wanted these and these features, fine, we give up on these and these features lets have it on time. 我們本來

29、想要這些功能，很好，但是為了準(zhǔn)時(shí)完工，必須放棄這些功能。The most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal for the Olympic, they gave up the roof. 最著名的例子是在蒙特婁，為奧林匹克運(yùn)動會而蓋的體育館放棄了屋頂。They have to finish on time. 他們必須準(zhǔn)時(shí)完工。Or some other time what you say is I must get 3 more people, 4 more people, I must get more re

30、sources if you want me to finish on time. 或者有些時(shí)候，你說如果要我準(zhǔn)時(shí)完工，就必須再給我三、四個人，我要更多的資源。That is fine so what is the problem? 沒關(guān)系，那問題是什么呢？They said, you know every time that this happens, that we see that we are probably not going to meat the due date, and now we are asking for trimming part of the project,

31、part of the content, or more resources, top management that has to approve it, always frown. 他們說：“你知道每次我們發(fā)現(xiàn)可能無法如期完工時(shí)，就會要求刪減項(xiàng)目的部分內(nèi)容、或要求更多資源，此時(shí)高階主管總是非常不悅?！盇lways they dont like it. 他們往往不喜歡這樣。And it is not so easy to get the permission then to do it. 而且得到許可后再開始做，也不太容易。Look on it. Actually this what we

32、see here is a conflict. 你看，這就是沖突。Lets see the conflict. 我們看一下沖突。Something happened, we are afraid now we will not meet the project on time. We will not deliver on time. 發(fā)生了某件事，我們現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心項(xiàng)目無法準(zhǔn)時(shí)完工，無法遵守承諾。In other words, what we have to do is to bring the schedule back on track. 換句話說，我們要做的是必須讓落后的進(jìn)度趕上。In or

33、der to bring the schedule back on track we must take some expensive correction actions or trim the project content. 為了讓落后的進(jìn)度趕上，必須采取一些代價(jià)昂貴的補(bǔ)正措施、或刪減項(xiàng)目內(nèi)容。Because otherwise, the project will not finish on time. 不然的話，項(xiàng)目就不能如期完工。When we are suggesting to do it and we are saying to top management, fine we h

34、ave to trim on that and that, or give me 5 more people, they say- dont do it. 我們呈報(bào)高階主管必須刪減這個、那個，或再給5個人。他們說：“不要做了?！盌ont take expensive corrections, corrective actions or do not trim the project. 不要采取代價(jià)昂貴的補(bǔ)正措施、或刪減項(xiàng)目內(nèi)容。Why do they say it- because they are stupid? 他們?yōu)槭裁催@么說？因?yàn)樗麄兒鼙繂幔縉o. Because they are a

35、ware that you are not allowed to jeopardize the original commitment for content and you must finish the project within the budget as well. 不是，因?yàn)樗麄冎滥悴豢梢赃`背原本承諾的內(nèi)容，而且必須在預(yù)算內(nèi)完成項(xiàng)目。If you noticed it is not you against the top management, you have a common objective. 如果你留意一下，會發(fā)現(xiàn)你和高階主管并不是對立的，你們有共同的目標(biāo)。What i

36、s the common objective? 這個共同的目標(biāo)是什么呢？It is to meet the original commitment. 遵守原本的承諾。And remember in every project there are three different commitments. 要記得，每個項(xiàng)目都承諾了三個不同的事項(xiàng)。There is a commitment of a date of delivery, when do we finish. 第一是到期日，我們什么時(shí)候完成項(xiàng)目。There is a commitment on the content - of what

37、 are we going to deliver, and there is a commitment for budget or price. 第二是內(nèi)容，我們要完成什么事項(xiàng)。第三是預(yù)算或價(jià)格。Ok? Three different commitments. 好嗎？三個不同的承諾事項(xiàng)。Whenever you have this problem of time, the corrective actions that you have to take, are clashing with the other commitments. 如果到期日出問題，你必須采取的補(bǔ)正措施會跟另外兩個承諾產(chǎn)生

38、沖突。Thats when you find yourselves between a rock and a hard place. Am I right?此時(shí)你會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷于進(jìn)退兩難的局面，我說得對嗎？Lets look on another one of the complaints. 讓我們看另一項(xiàng)抱怨。Lets look on the second one. 我們來看第二個。What was it?- there are too many changes. 是什么呢？太多變更。Well, you are asking: Why do you have the changes and w

39、hat is the problem and he said,- well it depends. 嗯，你問：“你為什么要變更？問題是什么？” 他說：“視情況而定。”He said so many times we are doing what we are supposed to do, then another department or other people which are responsible for another part of the project are coming and saying. 他說很多時(shí)候我們正在做該做的事，接著別的部門或負(fù)責(zé)項(xiàng)目另一部分的人跑來說：

40、Sorry, in order to do the content that we are talking about, you have to change what you have done because it doesnt fit. 很抱歉，為了要符合我們討論的內(nèi)容，你必須改變先前完成的部分，否則無法配合。Now change, or its even worse than that. 如果現(xiàn)在不改變，情況會變得更糟。The client, he said exactly what he wants, he signed the contract, we started to do

41、it. 客戶提出確切的需求，他簽下合約，我們開始做。He is looking at what we are doing and he said thats not what I meant, he wants a change. 他看看我們做的，然后說：“我不是這個意思。” 他想要變更。Sometimes he is even refusing to pay for the change. 有時(shí)候他甚至拒絕為這個變更付款。So these are the two sources for changes. 所以這兩者就是變更的來源。Either internally because peopl

42、e went into problem in the other side of the project and still has to be integrated, or the client. 一個來自內(nèi)部，負(fù)責(zé)項(xiàng)目另一部份的人為了整合而碰到問題，另一個來自客戶。So, I said - what is the problem? 所以我說：“問題是什么呢？”And once again you see immediately what is the problem. 所以你再度立刻看到問題出在哪里。Look. The need is to take actions to fulfill

43、the original commitment for content or due date. 你看，這里的需求是采取行動完成原本承諾的內(nèi)容或到期日。These actions now have to require a change from us otherwise we cannot meet it. 采取這些行動代表我們必須變更，否則無法達(dá)到原本的承諾。Or lets not forget, we have to honor the commitment to the clients to deliver what they really need. 不要忘了，我們必須實(shí)踐對客戶的承

44、諾，符合他們確切的需要。Which means I have to do the change if they say that is not what we want or thats not what we need.也就是說，如果這不是他們想要或需要的，我們就必須變更。On the other hand we are afraid to make these changes because what do these changes require usually? 但是另一方面我們又害怕變更，因?yàn)檫@些變更通常需要什么呢？More time, or more money. 更多的時(shí)間或金

45、錢。Is it understood, yes or no.了解了嗎？Once again we are on the same thing. 我們又回到老地方。We want to meet all original commitments. 我們想要達(dá)成原來的承諾。In this case the changes are usually coming from what? 在這個例子中，變更的需求通常是什么？From the need to protect the content. 想要保護(hù)項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)容。But the actions that we have to take, the ch

46、anges that we have to take to protect the content are jeopardizing the money and the due date commitments. 但是我們?yōu)榱吮Ｗo(hù)內(nèi)容而必須采取的行動，就會危害到金錢和到期日的承諾。Is it understood? Beautiful. 了解了嗎？太美妙了！You can go one by one on all of them and you see the same pattern repeats. 你可以逐一檢視，然后會發(fā)現(xiàn)相同的模式一直重復(fù)出現(xiàn)。For example lets tak

47、e the last complaint that we had. 例如，我們看看最后一項(xiàng)抱怨。What was it? There is too much re-work. 是什么呢？ 重做的工作太多。So you ask why do you have the re-work. 所以你問：“為什么要重做？”And he said because the specs that we worked on turned out to be not correct. 他說：“因?yàn)槲覀冊鹊囊?guī)格后來不正確?！盨o now we have to do it again.所以我們必須再做一次。So I

48、said why didnt you wait until the specs will be correct? 我說：“你為什么不確定規(guī)格正確以后再做？And what is the answer? 答案是什么呢？If we wait until the whole specs will be laid out, then we are definitely going to be late. 如果我們等所有的規(guī)格都確定后再做，絕對會來不及。So we have to start before we finish the planning. 因此我們一定要在計(jì)劃尚未完成前就開始。Does i

49、t happen to you?你是否碰過這樣的情況？Look again what is the conflict. 再看一下這里的沖突是什么？We must take action to secure meeting the original due date. 我們必須采取行動以確定能夠符合原本的到期日。Because of that we have to start many times before the specs are finished. 正因如此，我們常常必須在規(guī)格還沒確定前就先動工。If we start before the specs are finished mea

50、ns in order to secure it we have to start too early. 如果我們在規(guī)格還沒有確定前先動工，就代表為了如期完工，必須要很早開始。We will have to do re-work. 我們必須重做。On the other hand, God forbid that we will do re-work, because what is re-work doing. 另一方面，上帝禁止我們重做，因?yàn)橹刈鰰斐墒裁唇Y(jié)果？It immediately it inflates the time, inflates the budget and many

51、 times it leads to giving up on the content. 立刻延長時(shí)間和預(yù)算，常常使我們不得不放棄內(nèi)容。Have you noticed that the same picture is appearing again and again and again. 你是否發(fā)現(xiàn)同樣的情況一而再、再而三的重演。Lets see what is the generic conflict, what is the generic problem. 讓我們看看一般性的沖突，什么是一般性的問題？I think that by now we can verbalize it qu

52、ite nicely. 我想現(xiàn)在我們可以很清楚地把它表達(dá)出來。What is the project management cloud? 項(xiàng)目管理的沖突圖是什么？What is the problem of all this field? 在這個領(lǐng)域中碰到的問題是什么？The problem goes like that. 問題如下：The objective is obvious- you must meet the original commitments. 目標(biāo)很明顯：你必須如期達(dá)成原本的承諾。And remember there are three different original

53、 commitments. 要記得，有三種不同的承諾事項(xiàng)。Time, money and content. 時(shí)間、金錢、和內(nèi)容。Now in order to meet original commitments, since Murphy does exist, and since things are not going according to what we plan, remember what are the things that typify projects? 現(xiàn)在為了要實(shí)踐原本的承諾，但是莫非存在，而且事情通常不會依照我們的計(jì)劃進(jìn)行，還記得項(xiàng)目典型的特征是什么嗎？The th

54、ings that typifies projects is high level of uncertainty. 項(xiàng)目典型的特征是高度的不確定性。It is not like in production that we have done the same thing half a million times. 項(xiàng)目不像生產(chǎn)，同樣的事情我們做過五十萬次。In a project we have never done exactly the same under the same situation, very high level of uncertainty. 在項(xiàng)目中，我們從沒在同樣的情

55、況下做過同樣的事情，所以不確定性相當(dāng)高。So Murphy is guaranteed here. 所以莫非鐵定會在這里出現(xiàn)。And this means that because Murphy strikes us, in order to meet the original commitment we must do whatever it takes to meet the endangered original commitment. 也就是說，因?yàn)槟请S時(shí)會襲擊，所以我們?yōu)榱藢?shí)踐原本的承諾，就必須盡一切努力實(shí)踐岌岌可危的承諾。What is an endangered origina

56、l commitment? 什么叫做岌岌可危的承諾？Murphy, something that we have not done correctly. 莫非，也就是某件我們沒有做對的事情。Now in order to do whatever it takes to meet the endangered original commitment we must actually compensate for early mis-estimations or mis-considerations. 現(xiàn)在我們?yōu)榱吮M一切努力實(shí)踐岌岌可危的承諾，必須彌補(bǔ)之前錯誤的估計(jì)或未顧慮到的。Will we a

57、lways have mis-estimations and mis-considerations? 我們是不是都有錯誤的估計(jì)和未顧慮到的？Always, that is the nature of uncertainty. 一定會有，這正是不確定性的本質(zhì)。Is it understood, yes or no.了解了嗎？At the same we dont want to compensate for early mis-estimations and mis-considerations. 但是我們不想彌補(bǔ)之前錯誤的估計(jì)和未顧慮到的。Why? - because we are not a

58、llowed to jeopardize the other commitments that we have. 為什么呢？因?yàn)槲覀儾荒芪：Φ狡渌某兄Z事項(xiàng)。So from one hand side we must compensate, and from the other hand side we are not allowed to compensate. 所以我們一方面必須補(bǔ)償，另一方面又不能補(bǔ)償。How lovely. Life is a bitch and then we die. 太美妙了！生活充滿困境，我們終究會死亡。Not necessarily. Remember thi

59、s is a huge conflict. 不見得如此。要記住，這是很大的沖突。This is a conflict that everyone involved in a project all the time is facing. 與項(xiàng)目相關(guān)的每個人一天到晚都在面對這類沖突。Correct? Oh yeah? 對不對？沒錯！What do we do now? We compensate.我們現(xiàn)在要怎么做？ 我們要彌補(bǔ)。So fine, in this project we give up a little bit on this content and we will negotiat

60、e a new deadline or we will go over budget another 20 %. 很好，在這個項(xiàng)目中，我們放棄部分的內(nèi)容、協(xié)商出一個新的到期日、或追加20%的預(yù)算。We are trying to do our best. 我們試著盡力而為。If you really want to improve it, we must find what. 如果你真的想改善這種情況，我們必須找出什么呢？We must find a way to eliminate the conflict. 我們必須找到一種消除沖突的方法。We must find an assumptio