進(jìn)口總額影響因素分析與預(yù)測(cè)

1、WORD.85/85省進(jìn)口總額影響因素分析與預(yù)測(cè)XX：班級(jí)：學(xué)號(hào)：指導(dǎo)教師：前言隨著改革開放的深入改革和和中國(guó)加入WTO的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)在一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的環(huán)境中不斷的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，并取得了一些成就。是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)比較發(fā)達(dá)的沿海對(duì)外開放省份。2012年全省生產(chǎn)總值達(dá)34606億元人民幣，比上年增長(zhǎng)8%。全年固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)21.4%。2012年，城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入34550元，農(nóng)村居民人均純收入14552元。社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額增長(zhǎng)17.4%。積極培育出口品牌，加強(qiáng)重點(diǎn)出口基地和境外貿(mào)易促進(jìn)平臺(tái)建設(shè)，外貿(mào)出口增長(zhǎng)19.9%。省進(jìn)口的快速增長(zhǎng)正在由價(jià)格推動(dòng)型向數(shù)量拉動(dòng)型轉(zhuǎn)變，輸入型通脹的壓力有所減緩

2、。進(jìn)口是我國(guó)參與國(guó)際分工的重要方面。進(jìn)口可以滿足消費(fèi)者多樣化的需要，有利于彌補(bǔ)國(guó)資源不足，引進(jìn)先進(jìn)技術(shù)設(shè)備，提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率。因此，如何進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮進(jìn)口在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方面的作用，成為一個(gè)重要的議題。報(bào)告以省的進(jìn)口總額為研究對(duì)象，使用EVIEWS軟件，引入五個(gè)影響進(jìn)口總量的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，對(duì)省進(jìn)口貿(mào)易與這五個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行分析。理論背景1776年，英國(guó)古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞當(dāng)斯密在其著作國(guó)富論中開始探討國(guó)際貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的相互關(guān)系，并提出了“絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)理論”。1817年，大衛(wèi)嘉圖在亞當(dāng)斯密理論的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析的框架，進(jìn)一步對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易進(jìn)行深入的研究，并提出了“比優(yōu)勢(shì)理論”。19世紀(jì)后半葉，赫克歇爾和俄林

3、提出了享賦理論，該理論認(rèn)為國(guó)際貿(mào)易可以促使生產(chǎn)要素在國(guó)際間的優(yōu)化配置，實(shí)現(xiàn)合理的國(guó)際分工，從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特遜和納克斯在20世紀(jì)30年代首次提出對(duì)外貿(mào)易是“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)”學(xué)說(shuō)，即中心國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速增長(zhǎng)引起的對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家初級(jí)產(chǎn)品的大量需求引發(fā)了發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)于進(jìn)口來(lái)說(shuō)，其實(shí)影響因素有很多，在這里就以以下五個(gè)變量為影響因素進(jìn)行分析。其中，對(duì)于匯率來(lái)說(shuō)，一般情況下，如果人民幣對(duì)外升值，即人民幣對(duì)100美元的年平均匯價(jià)減少，會(huì)導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口增加。反之，如果人民幣對(duì)外貶值，即人民幣對(duì)100美元的年平均匯價(jià)增加，會(huì)限制進(jìn)口額。另外，一國(guó)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展程度很大程度上依賴于這個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)

4、濟(jì)發(fā)展水平，衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的最有效指標(biāo)就是GDP，國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)達(dá)，與國(guó)外的聯(lián)系也會(huì)越緊密，從而推動(dòng)國(guó)家進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。與此同時(shí)，固定資本形成總額，外商直接投資額以與社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額與進(jìn)口總額之間也會(huì)相互影響。報(bào)告選取了1978年到2012年的數(shù)據(jù)作為研究的圍，以省進(jìn)口總額為被解釋變量，并選取國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值、人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)、外商直接投資、社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額、固定資本形成總額為解釋變量對(duì)這一問(wèn)題進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析。希望通過(guò)建立一個(gè)合適的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型來(lái)從理論上找出影響進(jìn)口總額的因素，從而提出增加進(jìn)口的方法，進(jìn)而達(dá)到促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的目的。三、變量的選擇和模型的建立在此，我們將“進(jìn)口總額”設(shè)為

5、因變量，“國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值”，“人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)”，“外商直接投資”，“社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額”，“固定資本形成總額”設(shè)為自變量。進(jìn)口總額：指實(shí)際進(jìn)出我國(guó)國(guó)境的貨物總金額。包括對(duì)外貿(mào)易實(shí)際進(jìn)出口貨物，來(lái)料加工裝配進(jìn)出口貨物，國(guó)家間、聯(lián)合國(guó)與國(guó)際組織無(wú)償援助物資和贈(zèng)送品，華僑、港澳臺(tái)同胞和外籍華人捐贈(zèng)品，租賃期滿歸承租人所有的租賃貨物，進(jìn)料加工進(jìn)出口貨物，邊境地方貿(mào)易與邊境地區(qū)小額貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口貨物(邊民互市貿(mào)易除外)，中外合資企業(yè)、中外合作經(jīng)營(yíng)企業(yè)、外商獨(dú)資經(jīng)營(yíng)企業(yè)進(jìn)出口貨物和公用物品，到、離岸價(jià)格在規(guī)定限額以上的進(jìn)出口貨樣和廣告品(無(wú)商業(yè)價(jià)值、無(wú)使用價(jià)值和免費(fèi)提供出口的除外)，從保稅倉(cāng)庫(kù)提取在

6、中國(guó)境銷售的進(jìn)口貨物，以與其他進(jìn)出口貨物。進(jìn)出口總額用以觀察一個(gè)國(guó)家在對(duì)外貿(mào)易方面的總規(guī)模。我國(guó)規(guī)定出口貨物按離岸價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)，進(jìn)口貨物按到岸價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)。國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值：是一個(gè)國(guó)家（地區(qū)）所有常住單位在一定時(shí)期生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的最終成果（簡(jiǎn)稱GDP）。人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)：“匯價(jià)”亦稱“外匯行市”或“匯率”，是一國(guó)貨幣兌換另一國(guó)貨幣的比率，是以一種貨幣表示另一種貨幣的價(jià)格。外商直接投資：指外國(guó)企業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)組織或個(gè)人(包括華僑、港澳臺(tái)胞以與我國(guó)在境外注冊(cè)的企業(yè))按我國(guó)有關(guān)政策、法規(guī)，用現(xiàn)匯、實(shí)物、技術(shù)等在我國(guó)境開辦外商獨(dú)資企業(yè)、與我國(guó)境的企業(yè)或經(jīng)濟(jì)組織共同舉辦中外合資經(jīng)營(yíng)企業(yè)、合作經(jīng)營(yíng)企業(yè)或合作開發(fā)資源的投

7、資(包括外商投資收益的再投資)，以與經(jīng)政府有關(guān)部門批準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目投資總額企業(yè)從境外借入的資金。社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額：指批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、住宿和餐飲業(yè)以與其他行業(yè)直接售給城鄉(xiāng)居民和社會(huì)集團(tuán)的消費(fèi)品零售總額。固定資本形成總額：是指常住單位購(gòu)置、轉(zhuǎn)入和自產(chǎn)自用的固定資產(chǎn)，扣除固定資產(chǎn)的銷售和轉(zhuǎn)出后的價(jià)值，分有形固定資產(chǎn)形成總額和無(wú)形固定資產(chǎn)形成總額。被解釋變量：Y進(jìn)口總額（萬(wàn)美元）解釋變量一：X1國(guó)生產(chǎn)總值GDP(億元)解釋變量二：X2人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)（元）解釋變量三：X3外商直接投資（萬(wàn)美元）解釋變量四：X4社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額（萬(wàn)元）解釋變量五：X5固定資本形成總額（萬(wàn)元）將變量的數(shù)學(xué)形式確定為

8、：一共有五個(gè)解釋變量，是常數(shù)，（i=1、2、3、4、5）是解釋變量的偏回歸系數(shù)，為隨機(jī)誤差項(xiàng)，用來(lái)表示解釋變量以外的其他因素的干擾。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源與分析數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CNKI中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)（HYPERLINK :/ X1人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)(元)X2外商直接投資額（萬(wàn)美元)X3社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額(萬(wàn)元)X4固定資本形成總額(億元)X51978年1771HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#123.72 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#168.36 39HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4686

9、0023.231979年1775HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#157.75 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#155.49 53HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#58970026.111980年1811HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#179.92 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#149.84 72HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#74870033.251981年3314HYPERLIN

10、K file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#204.86 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#170.51 98HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#85990034.161982年3127HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#234.01 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#189.26 133HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#93770041.721983年2645HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANG

11、E!#257.09 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#197.57 181HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#104240044.041984年5546HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#323.25 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#232.70 252HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#125820064.871985年18554HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#429.16 HYPERLINK

12、 file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#293.67 1634HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1722700102.21986年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#20163HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#502.47 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#345.28 1853HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#2034900121.761987年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#26

13、578HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#606.99 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#372.21 2337HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#2425800156.21988年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#49624HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#770.25 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#372.21 2957HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3

14、258800188.951989年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#64165HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#849.44 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#376.59 5181HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3460100179.491990年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#58461HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#904.69 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l

15、 RANGE!#478.38 4844HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3537500186.961991年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#94424HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1089.33 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#532.27 9162HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4040000239.751992年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#142780HYPERLINK f

16、ile:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1375.70 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#551.49 29398HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4938700361.181993年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#240956HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1925.91 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#576.19 103271HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#77211006

17、83.831994年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#290487HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#2689.28 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#861.87 114449HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#113318001006.391995年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#381448HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3557.55 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls

18、l RANGE!#835.07 125775HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#147266001357.91996年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#449979HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4188.53 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#831.42 152021HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#177667001617.531997年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#416619HY

19、PERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4686.11 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#828.98 150345HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#195196001694.571998年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#398765HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#5052.62 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.91 131802HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RAN

20、GE!#2120780018481999年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#543415HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#5443.92 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.96 153262HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#230586001970.592000年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#838987HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#6141.03 HYPERLINK file

21、:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.72 161266HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#255359002267.22001年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#982222HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#6898.34 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.70 221162HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#283959002645.42002年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE

22、!#1254548HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#8003.67 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.70 316002HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#316615003255.132003年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1982000HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#9705.02 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.70 544936HYPERLINK file:/E:

23、計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#351126004479.982004年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#2707000HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#11648.00 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#827.68 668128HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#405550005563.872005年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3058700HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#1343

24、7.85 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#819.17 772271463169006269.162006年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#3825400HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#15718.47 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#797.18 888935532535007065.652007年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#4854000HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#18

25、753.73 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#760.40 1036576621404007992.862008年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#5685700HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#21462.69 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#694.51 1007294744175008798.012009年5472456HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#22990.35 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xl

26、s l RANGE!#683.10 9939748622300010220.12010年7306824HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#27722.31 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#676.95 110017510245405.812101.32011年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#9304000HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#32318.85 HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量.xls l RANGE!#645.88 11666011202

27、80043.213822.92012年876700034606.30 631.25130692613588300014607.6（二）數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整過(guò)程（依據(jù)可比性原則，我們對(duì)人民幣數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的調(diào)整，形成可比價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)。）年份GDP(億元) X1GDP指數(shù)（(上年=100)）GDP定基發(fā)展速度（以1978年為基期）可比價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)（億元）人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)(元)X2居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)（(上年=100)）居民消費(fèi)定基價(jià)格指數(shù)（以1978年為基期）可比價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)（元）1978年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#123.72 121.9100123.72HYPE

28、RLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#168.36 100100168.361979年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#157.75 113.6113.6140.5459HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#155.49 102.6102.6151.54971980年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#179.92 116.4132.2304163.5955HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l

29、 RANGE!#149.84 108.8111.6288134.23061981年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#204.86 111.5147.4369182.4089HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#170.51 101.7113.5265150.1941982年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#234.01 111.4164.2447203.2035HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#189.26

30、101.9115.6835163.60161983年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#257.09 108177.3843219.4598HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#197.57 102.8118.9226166.13321984年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#323.25 121.7215.8767267.0826HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#232.70 103122.4903189.9

31、7421985年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#429.16 121.7262.7219325.0395HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#293.67 114.8140.6189208.84111986年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#502.47 112.1294.5113364.3693HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#345.28 106.2149.3372231.20821987年HYPERL

32、INK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#606.99 111.8329.2636407.3649HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#372.21 108.8162.4789229.0821988年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#770.25 111.2366.1411452.9898HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#372.21 121.5197.4119188.54491989年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（

33、數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#849.44 99.4363.9443450.2718HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#376.59 118.2233.3409161.39051990年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#904.69 103.9378.1381467.8324HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#478.38 102.1238.241200.79671991年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RAN

34、GE!#1089.33 117.8445.4467551.1066HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#532.27 103.5246.5794215.86151992年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#1375.70 119530.0815655.8169HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#551.49 107.5265.0729208.05221993年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#1925.91 12

35、2646.6995800.0966HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#576.19 119.8317.5573181.44441994年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#2689.28 120776.0394960.1159HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#861.87 124.8396.3116217.47281995年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#3557.55 116.8906.4141121.4

36、15HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#835.07 116.6462.0993180.71221996年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#4188.53 112.71021.5291263.835HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#831.42107.9498.6051166.74921997年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#4686.11 111.11134.9181404.121HYPERLINK f

37、ile:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#828.98 102.8512.5661161.73131998年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#5052.62 110.21250.681547.341HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.91 99.7511.0284162.00861999年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#5443.92 1101375.7481702.075HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.

38、xlsx l RANGE!#827.96 98.8504.896163.98622000年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#6141.03 1111527.081889.304HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.72 101509.945162.31552001年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#6898.34 110.61688.9512089.57HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.70

39、99.8508.9251162.63692002年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#8003.67 112.61901.7582352.855HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.70 99.1504.3448164.11392003年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#9705.02 114.72181.3172698.725HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.70 101.9513.92731

40、61.05392004年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#11648.7114.52497.6083090.04HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#827.68 103.9533.9705155.00482005年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#13437.85112.82817.3023485.566HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#819.17 101.3540.9121151.44232006年HY

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43、x l RANGE!#27722.31111.94938.1676109.5HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#676.95 103.8611.7422110.65942011年HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#32318.851095382.6026659.355HYPERLINK file:/E:計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#645.88 105.3834644.6748100.1872012年34606.31085813.217192.104631.25102.2658.8576

44、95.80978年份社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額(萬(wàn)元)X4商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)（(上年=100)）商品零售定基價(jià)格指數(shù)（以1978年為基期）可比價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)（萬(wàn)元）固定資本形成總額(億元)X5固定資產(chǎn)投資價(jià)格指數(shù)（(上年=100)）固定資產(chǎn)投資定基價(jià)格指數(shù)（以1978年為基期）可比價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)（億元）1978年HYPERLINK file:/C:Documents%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#468600100.110046860023.2310010023.231979年HYPERLINK file:/C:Document

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55、%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#2305860097.7415.84835544955.0881970.5998.2419.9962469.19232000年HYPERLINK file:/C:Documents%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#2553590099411.68986202704.2132267.2100.3421.2562538.19982001年HYPERLINK file:/C:Documen

56、ts%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#2839590098.1403.86777030990.8592645.4100.4422.9412625.4772002年HYPERLINK file:/C:Documents%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#3166150098.7398.61747942829.2933255.13100.4424.633766.57492003年HYPERLINK file:/C:Docu

57、ments%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#3511260099.6397.02298843972.6984479.98103.5439.49521019.3472004年HYPERLINK file:/C:Documents%20and%20SettingsAdministrator桌面計(jì)量（數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整）.xlsx l RANGE!#RANGE!#40555000102.7407.74269946226.9895563.87105.9465.42541195.4382005年46316900100.941

58、1.412211258026.816269.16100.3466.82171342.9452006年53253500100.8414.703512841342.187065.65101.5473.8241491.1972007年62140400103.8430.462314435736.737992.86104.3494.19841617.3382008年74417500106.3457.581416263226.878798.01109.3540.15891628.7822009年8622300098.8452.090419072069.8710220.196.7522.33361956.6

59、232010年102454075.8103.9469.721921811643.5712101.3104.65546.62212213.8332011年120280043.2105.5103495.60524269334.6113822.9107.49587.56412352.5772012年135883000101.9505.021526906377.8514607.699.2582.86362506.178（三）調(diào)整后數(shù)據(jù)年份進(jìn)口總額(萬(wàn)美元)Y國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值GDP（億元）X1人民幣對(duì)100美元年平均匯價(jià)(元)X2外商直接投資額（萬(wàn)美元）X3社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額(萬(wàn)元)X4固定資本形成總額(億

60、元)X51978年1771123.72168.363946860023.231979年1775140.5459151.549753577571.008825.448341980年1811163.5955134.230672678982.116329.786221981年3314182.4089150.19498768302.78830.089891982年3127203.2035163.6016133830342.390436.063921983年2645219.4598166.1332181904956.127237.032481984年5546267.0826189.97422521056