CMA考試新考綱(官方)parttwo4(1)課件

1、1第四章：投資決策 Section D: Investment Decision 第1頁，共46頁。2資本預(yù)算流程 Topic 1: Capital Budgeting Process第2頁，共46頁。3資本預(yù)算 Capital Budgeting 流動(dòng)投資 短期，當(dāng)年結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)沖銷營運(yùn)預(yù)算 營運(yùn)活動(dòng)的收入和費(fèi)用計(jì)劃資本投資 長期，初始現(xiàn)金流出隨時(shí)間推移而逐漸攤銷資本預(yù)算 長期資產(chǎn)的提議支出所制定的計(jì)劃Current investment short-term, written off in the same yearOperating budget plan for operating expen

2、ses and revenueCapital investment long-term, initial cash outlay reduced over a period of yearsCapital budgeting plan of proposed outlays for long-term asset第3頁，共46頁。4資本預(yù)算 Capital Budgeting 資本預(yù)算編制的應(yīng)用分類 擴(kuò)張，重置，強(qiáng)制性，其他其他資本支出分類 效率和/或收入的產(chǎn)生，競爭效果，法規(guī)，安全，健康和環(huán)境的要求Capital Budgeting ApplicationsCategories expans

3、ion, replace, mandatory, otherAlternate capital classification efficiency and/or revenue generation, competitive effectiveness, regulatory, safety, health, and environment requirement第4頁，共46頁。5資本預(yù)算編制的項(xiàng)目緯度和時(shí)間緯度項(xiàng)目緯度時(shí)間緯度 貨幣的時(shí)間價(jià)值，889頁資本預(yù)算編制的階段劃分資本預(yù)算編制的階段劃分 圖表2D-1，889頁P(yáng)roject and Time Dimension in Capita

4、l BudgetingProjection DimensionTime Dimension time value of money, page 377Stage of Capital BudgetingStages of Capital Budgeting figure 2D-1, page 378資本預(yù)算 Capital Budgeting 第5頁，共46頁。6增量現(xiàn)金流 Incremental Cash Flows評(píng)價(jià)資本投資現(xiàn)金流的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn) 890頁資本預(yù)算項(xiàng)目階段的現(xiàn)金流入和流出 圖表2D-2,891頁直接效應(yīng) 現(xiàn)金流入，現(xiàn)金流出或承諾納稅效應(yīng) 由納稅收入和可扣除費(fèi)用引起凈效應(yīng)Key p

5、oints in evaluating capital investment cash flows page 378Cash inflows and outflow during a Capital Budgeting Project figure 2D-2, page 379Direct Effect cash inflow, outflow or commitmentTax Effect caused by the taxability of revenues and deductibility of expenses Net Effect第6頁，共46頁。7增量現(xiàn)金流 Increment

6、al Cash Flows初始期現(xiàn)金流資本預(yù)算項(xiàng)目階段的現(xiàn)金流入和流出 圖表2D-3，891頁營運(yùn)期現(xiàn)金流 營運(yùn)期的增量現(xiàn)金流 圖表2D-4，892頁處置期現(xiàn)金流處置期的增量現(xiàn)金流 圖表2D-5,892頁Initiation Cash Flows Incremental Cash Flows at Initiation figure 2D-3, page 380Operation Cash Flows Increment Cash Flows During Operation figure 2D-4, page 380Disposal Cash Flows Increment Cash Flo

7、ws at Disposal figure 2D-5, page 381第7頁，共46頁。8增量現(xiàn)金流案例初始增量現(xiàn)金流 圖表2D-6，893頁凈營運(yùn)收入預(yù)測(cè) 圖表2D-7，893頁營運(yùn)期和處置期的增量現(xiàn)金流 圖表2D-8，893頁預(yù)期增量現(xiàn)金流 圖表2D-9，894頁Incremental Cash Flow ExampleIncremental Cash Flow at Initiation figure 2D-6, page 382Projections for Net Operation Revenue figure 2D-7, page 382Incremental Cash Flo

8、ws from Operation and Disposal figure 2D-8, page 382Expected Incremental Cash Flows figure 2D-9, page 383增量現(xiàn)金流 Incremental Cash Flows第8頁，共46頁。9所得稅考慮事項(xiàng) Income Tax Consideration與折舊有關(guān)的稅務(wù)規(guī)則存在的差異 894頁可稅前扣除的折舊金額折舊基數(shù) 在一定期限內(nèi)為納稅目的而沖銷的金額 折舊期三種技術(shù) 895頁Tax rules pertaining to depreciation differ in the following

9、 way page 383Depreciation Amount AllowableDepreciable basis amount that can be written off for tax purposes over a period of yearsDepreciation Time PeriodThree main techniques page 384第9頁，共46頁。10所得稅考慮事項(xiàng) Income Tax Consideration折舊模式直線折舊法 895頁加速折舊法 年數(shù)總和法，896頁，余額遞減法，896頁，MACRS，897頁折舊稅盾作用Depreciation Pa

10、tternStraight-line Depreciation page 385Accelerated Depreciation sum-of-the-digits, page 385, declining-balance depreciation, page 386, MACRS, page 387Depreciation tax shield 第10頁，共46頁。11第二節(jié)：折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流分析 Topic 2: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis第11頁，共46頁。12規(guī)定回報(bào)率 Required Rate of Return使用以下標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來評(píng)價(jià)資本投資 初始現(xiàn)金流，預(yù)期

11、未來現(xiàn)金流入和流出，規(guī)定回報(bào)率規(guī)定回報(bào)率 選擇一項(xiàng)投資時(shí)可接受的未來最低回報(bào)率Following criteria to evaluate a capital investment total initial cash flow for the investment, expected future cash inflows and outflow, required rate of returnRequired rate of return minimum future receipts the firms will accept in choosing an investment第12頁，

12、共46頁。13規(guī)定回報(bào)率 Required Rate of Return最低回報(bào)率資本成本資本成本的公式 902頁加權(quán)平均資本成本公式 902頁Minimum Rate of ReturnCost of Capital Formula for the cost of capital page 392Formula for the weighted average cost of capital page 392第13頁，共46頁。14凈現(xiàn)值 Net Present Value 凈現(xiàn)值 未來現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值減去項(xiàng)目的初始投資現(xiàn)值計(jì)算現(xiàn)值(PV) = 現(xiàn)金流金額/(1+r)n1美元的部分復(fù)利現(xiàn)值系數(shù)表

13、 圖表2D-11，903頁Net Present Value present value of future cash flows less the initial investment in the projectPresent Value CalculationPresent Value (PV) = Amount of Cash Flow/(1+r)nPartial Present Value of $1 Interest Factor Table figure 2D-11, page 394第14頁，共46頁。15凈現(xiàn)值 Net Present Value 凈現(xiàn)值計(jì)算確定NPV的步驟

14、904頁均勻現(xiàn)金流的例子 年金投資，圖表2D-12，905頁不均勻現(xiàn)金流的例子 905頁凈現(xiàn)值解釋NPV的解釋 906頁Net Present Value CalculationSteps in determining NPV page 395Uniform Net Cash Flows Example annuity investment, figure 2D-12, page 395Uneven Cash Flows Examples page 396Net Present Value Interpretation NPV values may be interpreted page 39

15、7第15頁，共46頁。16內(nèi)部回報(bào)率 Internal Rate of Return內(nèi)部回報(bào)率（IRR）- 一個(gè)使凈現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值等于初始投資的折現(xiàn)率對(duì)內(nèi)部回報(bào)率的解釋兩個(gè)基本步驟 907頁均勻凈現(xiàn)金流的例子 907頁不均勻現(xiàn)金流的例子圖表2D-14，2D-15，2D-16，908頁Internal rate of return (IRR) discount rate that makes the present value of net cash inflow equal to the initial investment Internal Rate of Return Interpreta

16、tionTwo fundamental steps page 397Uniform Net Cash Flows Example 398Uneven Cash Flows Example page 398, figure 2D-14, figure 2D-15, figure 2D-16, page 399第16頁，共46頁。17NPV和IRR的比較 Comparison of NPV and IRRNPV和IRR都考慮 貨幣的時(shí)間價(jià)值，期初現(xiàn)金投資，初始投資后的所有現(xiàn)金 兩種方法都有可靠性方面的值得注意之處 909頁只要沒有以下方面的不同，NPV和IRR方法一般會(huì)產(chǎn)生相似的結(jié)果 909頁Bo

17、th NPV and IRR consider time value of money, initial cash investment, all cash flow after initial investmentBoth methods have some reliability cautions page 400NPV and IRR methods will yield similar results as long as there are no differences page 400第17頁，共46頁。18第三節(jié)：回收期和折現(xiàn)回收期Topic 3: Payback and Dis

18、counted Payback第18頁，共46頁。19回收期法的使用 Uses of Payback Method均勻凈現(xiàn)金流的例子 912頁不均勻現(xiàn)金流的例子 912頁回收期法的解釋回收期法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn)回收期法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn) 圖表2D-18，913頁Uniform Net Cash Flows Example page 404Uneven Cash Flows Example page 405 Payback Method InterpretationAdvantages and Disadvantages of the Payback MethodAdvantage and disadvan

19、tage of the Payback Method figure 2D-18, page 406第19頁，共46頁。20折現(xiàn)回收期法 Discounted Payback折現(xiàn)回收期法 使用凈現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值，圖表2D-19，914頁Discounted payback method uses the present values of net cash inflows, figure 2D-19, page 406第20頁，共46頁。21第四節(jié)：投資項(xiàng)目排序Topic 4: Ranking Investment Projects第21頁，共46頁。22資本項(xiàng)目排序 Capital Rationi

20、ng 資本分配合理化 企業(yè)的投資有某種約束，圖表2D-20，410頁獲利指數(shù)法獲利指數(shù)法 圖表2D-21，918頁Capital Rationing some constraint on a firms investment program, figure 2D-20, page 410Profitability Index Profitability Index page 411, figure 2D-21, page 411第22頁，共46頁。23互斥項(xiàng)目 Mutually Exclusive Projects因?yàn)轫?xiàng)目之間存在如下的差異，不同的分析方法產(chǎn)生相沖突的結(jié)果 現(xiàn)金流規(guī)模，凈現(xiàn)金流

21、模式，使用壽命比較項(xiàng)目投資時(shí)所面臨的問題 圖表2D-22，919頁Yield conflicting results because of project differences size of the cash flow, pattern of the net cash flows, length of the useful lifeProblems in Comparing Project Investment figure 2D-22, page 412第23頁，共46頁。24其他排序方法 Alternate Ranking Methods線性規(guī)劃內(nèi)部資本市場(chǎng)Liner Programm

22、ingInternal Capital Markets第24頁，共46頁。25第五節(jié)：資本投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析Topic 5: Risk Analysis in Capital Investment第25頁，共46頁。26敏感性分析 Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析用于回答以下的問題 924頁折現(xiàn)率的變化 圖表2D-23，925頁Sensitivity analysis used to answer questions such as page 418Changes in Discount Rate figure 2D-23, page 419第26頁，共46頁。27確定性等值 C

23、ertainty Equivalents確定性等值 預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流轉(zhuǎn)換成實(shí)際上更可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的確定金額采取以下的步驟 926頁案例 圖表2D-24，927頁Certainty Equivalent used to convert a projected cash flow into a certain cash flowFollowing steps page 421For example figure 2D-24, page 421第27頁，共46頁。28其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理方法 Other Approach to Dealing with Risk資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型模擬Capital Asset Prici

24、ng ModelSimulations 第28頁，共46頁。29使用專門調(diào)整的利率 Use of Specifically Adjusted Rates使用公司資本成本進(jìn)行折現(xiàn)的問題 好的低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目可能被拒絕，不好的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目可能被接受The problem of using firms cost of capital rate good low-risk projects may be rejected, poor high-risk projects may be accepted第29頁，共46頁。30資本投資的定性考慮事項(xiàng) Qualitative Consideration in Ca

25、pital Investment定性的重要事項(xiàng)包括 929頁Following important qualitative factors page 424第30頁，共46頁。31第六節(jié)：估值Topic 6: Valuation第31頁，共46頁。32價(jià)值元素 Elements of Value商業(yè)價(jià)值 商業(yè)價(jià)值包括 持續(xù)經(jīng)營價(jià)值，清算價(jià)值，每股清算價(jià)值，賬面價(jià)值，每股賬面價(jià)值，市場(chǎng)價(jià)值和內(nèi)在價(jià)值現(xiàn)金流的度量 933頁Business of ValueBusiness value include - going-concern, liquidation value, liquidation v

26、alue per share, book value, book value per share of common stock, market value, intrinsic value, Measure of cash flow page 428 第32頁，共46頁。33規(guī)模，多樣性和復(fù)雜性資產(chǎn)，收益和增長Scale, Diversity, and ComplexityAssets, Earning, and Growth價(jià)值元素 Elements of Value第33頁，共46頁。34估價(jià)工具 Valuation ToolsBetaBeta 與整個(gè)市場(chǎng)在某一特定期間的變動(dòng)相比，特定股

27、票在同一期間內(nèi)價(jià)格變動(dòng)情況,圖表2D-25，934頁BetaBeta movement of the price of a particular stock compared with the movement of the market as a whole, figure 2D-25, page 430 第34頁，共46頁。35估價(jià)工具 Valuation Tools規(guī)定回報(bào)率 規(guī)定回報(bào)率 投資人預(yù)期可以從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類似的其他資本投資中獲得的回報(bào)，最低回報(bào)率折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流DCF計(jì)算 - 935Required Rate of ReturnRequired rate of return investo

28、r could expect to receive elsewhere for a capital investment of comparable risk, minimum rate Discounted Cash FlowDCF calculated page 231第35頁，共46頁。36資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型 分析證券（尤其是普通股）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)率之間的關(guān)系 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)，Beta和SML 圖表2D-26，936頁Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf)，案例，936頁Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital asset pricing model an

29、alyzing the relationship between risks and rate of return on securities, especially common stock, Risk Premium, Beta, and SML figure 2D-26, page 432Ke = Rf + B (Km Rf), for example, page 432估價(jià)工具 Valuation Tools第36頁，共46頁。37現(xiàn)金流 Cash Flows現(xiàn)金流的重要性營運(yùn)活動(dòng)投資活動(dòng)融資活動(dòng)附注Importance of Cash FlowOperation Activities

30、Investing ActivitiesFinancing ActivitiesFootnotes第37頁，共46頁。38現(xiàn)金流 Cash Flows未來收益的數(shù)量、質(zhì)量和變動(dòng)性收益質(zhì)量 收益質(zhì)量的基本要素，938頁收益持久性收益能力 兩個(gè)考慮，939頁現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測(cè) 間接法，939頁Quantity, Quality, and Variability of Future EarningsEarning Quality basic factor of earning quality, page 434Earning Persistence Earning Power two considerati

31、on, page 435Forecasting Cash Flows indirect methods, page 436第38頁，共46頁。39現(xiàn)金流 Cash Flows折現(xiàn)率變化對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的影響使用資本成本作為折現(xiàn)所有新投資的準(zhǔn)繩，雙重問題，940頁敏感性分析所得稅的影響所得稅在決策過程中的影響Impact of Changing Discount RatesThe use of cost of capital as yardstick to discount cash flow on all new investment, two problems, page 436Sensitivit

32、y AnalysisImpact of Income TaxesImpact of Income Taxes in the Decision Process第39頁，共46頁。40現(xiàn)金流 Cash Flows使用股利折現(xiàn)模型現(xiàn)金流的度量預(yù)期持有期間預(yù)計(jì)股利模式Use of the Dividend Discount ModelMeasure of cash flowExpected holding periodPattern of expected dividents第40頁，共46頁。41現(xiàn)金流 Cash Flows基本股利折現(xiàn)模型 942頁 固定股利增長率下的股利折現(xiàn)模型 942頁戈登模型

33、的關(guān)鍵要點(diǎn) 圖表2D-27，943頁Basic Dividend discount Model page 439The Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model page 439Gordon Model Key Points figure 2D-27, page 440第41頁，共46頁。42估值模型 Valuation Models市盈率在相對(duì)估值中一個(gè)分析師 944頁市盈率 = 每股市價(jià)/EPSPricing Earning RatioIn relative valuation an analyst will page 441Price Earning Ratio = market price per share/EP