亞洲金融危機英文版

1、Asian Financial Crisis目錄一.Asian financial crisis 1997 981.數(shù)據(jù)2.概況3.原因4.影響二.投機者-索羅斯三.IMF的角色四.經(jīng)驗教訓1997 亞洲金融風暴概況之 危機原因新馬泰日韓等國都為外向型經(jīng)濟的國家。他們對世界市場的依附很大。亞洲經(jīng)濟的動搖難免會出現(xiàn)牽一發(fā)而動全身的狀況。金融大鱷一只假寐的老狼個人價值觀趨向資本主義國家的默許新中國成立預示著社會主義陣營的建立。美國，有了危機感。他通過強大的經(jīng)濟后盾在亞太地區(qū)建立起一個資本主義的統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線：韓國，日本，臺灣直至東南亞，都成為美國的經(jīng)濟附庸。這給亞洲一些國家飛速發(fā)展帶來了經(jīng)濟支持。直接觸

2、發(fā)因素內(nèi)在基礎(chǔ)性因素世界經(jīng)因素亞洲國家美國因素喬治索羅斯國內(nèi)學者分析equilibrium由于國際方面的信貸繁榮和當局放寬對外國資本流入，導致外資流入增加。 通常情況下，資金會找到自己的方式，無論是實體經(jīng)濟的貸款給企業(yè)或的非生產(chǎn)性股票和房地產(chǎn)市場。 不幸的是，在這段時間的資金流入股市和房地產(chǎn)市場朝向。 下表顯示了在1997年給予的貸款，物業(yè)部門和不良貸款的百分比?？梢钥闯?，從上述四國受影響最嚴重的危機也配合他們的尊重銀行業(yè)的不良貸款率最高。金融危機對這些國家各自的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長的效果。財政失衡是指付款余額為負值，一國償還其債務的能力之間的差異。資料來源：國際貨幣基金組織上表顯示出口和經(jīng)常項目

3、的惡化。 該表顯示，而經(jīng)常項目赤字居高不下，出口國的同時經(jīng)歷了在其出口收入下滑。 在韓國和泰國，其出口增長最少，分別只有3.7和0.5。 與此相比的30.3和23.1，分別較上年同期。 因此，這代表了減少出口持續(xù)高經(jīng)常賬戶赤字財政失衡。 換句話說，最終出口收入將不足以支付其經(jīng)常賬戶赤字。由于在出口的蓬勃發(fā)展，有必要的資金，以資助其出口行業(yè)和其他經(jīng)濟活動的增加。 當時全球金融市場的開放，對外部資金的來源提供了一個完美的途徑。 然而，最終這些借款將擴大的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字。當一個國家的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字擴大，加上出口下降，由于外國資金的流入，貨幣高估，它會吸引貨幣投機者的關(guān)注。受影響的經(jīng)濟體政府將試圖捍衛(wèi)其貨

4、幣，無論是通過提高利率或使用其外匯儲備貨幣撐起。 當他們提高利率，最終將帶來銀行業(yè)由于增加國外借貸成本。 最終會有“逆轉(zhuǎn)資金流動”-從外國資金流入到流出。 有了這樣的資金流出，將導致信貸緊縮，加上高利率，它最終將影響房地產(chǎn)和銀行業(yè)。reverse flow of funds國際收支危機和銀行危機之間的關(guān)系更是明顯，時下，由于金融業(yè)的全球化。 下表顯示了銀行之間的危機和國際收支的頻率。從上面的表中可以看出，在1980年之前發(fā)生的危機更偏于收支平衡。 29個危機的總額出只有3個是銀行業(yè)危機。 然而，自20世紀80年代以來，銀行業(yè)金融機構(gòu)總危機上升到23， 73。 因此，我們可以推斷出，現(xiàn)今的金融危

5、機可能會由結(jié)算付款和銀行的關(guān)系引起。Events in 97 Events in 98 Events in 98 CausesDeteriorating（不斷惡化的） economic conditionsMoral （道德）Hazards （危害）by banks and corporations（企業(yè)）Too much inflow（流入） of foreign fundsStock market and Real Estate（房地產(chǎn)） BubbleLack of regulatory （監(jiān)管）control on fundsMassive disinvestment（撤資）Specul

6、ation?Who are speculators（投機者）?Large International financial institutions, banks and fund managers attacking central banksWhy? They short sale（賣空） currencies and make the central bank run out of foreign reserves. This breaks the equilibrium（平衡） among currencies.George SorosSoros Fund Management (est

7、. 1969)Advises Quantum Group of Funds（量子基金集團） “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England” Blamed for sharp devaluation of southeastern currenciesIf you had invested $1k in 1969, you would have $1 mil 25 years later (32% growth/yr.)In July of 1997, Soros Fund Profits doubled! Speculators Take Actions Whe

8、nFinancial markets are ruled by humans emotional reactions than using logical calculation!When a developing country starts to financially liberalize before its institutions or knowledge base is prepared, it opens itself to the possibility of shocks and instability with inflows and outflows of funds!

9、How Did Speculators Take Advantage of Asian Markets?Macroeconomic indicators: Large current account deficits Declining exportsExcessive lending to certain economic sectors Weak banking systems, coupled with inadequate national policies governing the outflow of capital High levels of short-term debtN

10、ations Under Speculation Attacks:ThailandMalaysiaHong Kong ($1b=D, $80 b in Fix Rate)PhilippinesChina (Non-Convertible Currency)South KoreaJapanWhat Happened in Thailand?On May 14 & 15, Soros attacked Thai BahtBorrowed and sold Thai baht, receiving US dollars in exchange Financial crises started whe

11、n Baht was not defendedThe baht fell, speculators needed much less dollars to repay the baht loans, thus making large profitsThai government used US$20 billion of foreign reserves The Central Bank ran out of Foreign ReservesPrevious Financial CrisesWhat happened in East Asia is not peculiar(特殊的), bu

12、t has already happened to: Many Latin American countries in 1980s Sweden and Norway in the early 1990s Mexico in 1994Southeast Asia in 1997Russia in 1998They faced sudden currency depreciations（貶值） due to speculative attacks or large outflows of fundsIMF History and Background1944 44 governments est

13、ablish a framework for global economic development.1973 currencies of major powers allowed to float1997 Asian Financial Crisis2008 IMF faces budget shortfall2009 G-20 London members pledge （抵押）to increase supplemental cash to $500B2010 members agree to shift 6% voting shares to developing nations.Cu

14、rrently 187 member nationsIMF and the Asian Financial CrisisImposition of “Fast Track Capitalism”Liberalization of financial sectorsRaise domestic interest rates bolstering bank capitalPeg national currencies to the dollar to protect foreign investors“Conditionalities” and austerity measures inhibit

15、 the ability of countries to develop their home economiesEncouraged devaluation of currencies making imports more expensiveBecame known as “Lender of Last Resort.”Interest rates above market average.Criticism of the IMFLargely controlled by developed nations“New Colonialism” austerity measures inhibit long term economic growthWestern style economic reforms and greater ownership by foreign firmsMonetarist priorities overlook public health, enviro