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1、flfi fiflg1 $ fl$.flfl fi$ 2fl $2fl=.$fl”:2fl0 fi?.$ 2flflfi.?flg7?$. $flfi$!“$fifl.54,2.flfl fi$ Mfl /Mfl :fifl z fi $y$ 18000001600000140000012000001000000800000600000400000200000018751880188518901895190019051910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015 :
2、fi: $Mfl15 B! :$ML.Pfi!LflflOfi !Qflfi!Mfl /E+ $# $! ,. flfl.:fl?3:$#flDfl:q9flDfl-100%-50%0%50%100%140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000019001906191219181924193019361942194819541960196619721978198419901996200220082014:fi:$(,)fl fi :fi:$(q%) :fifl z fi $y$ $#flD2$9 fi:1900-1945$flDW:fl1900$1
3、=fi 1943$fl 7014,5qn=O”O(jiān),1945$#1963fl1946-1973$=fiW:$1946$55.70flfi=fi1973$ 1.19,$4=fifi21.99%1974$H_fiW:bgfl.yfi V saflRflZ$#9fizbfi,$#flD bWfiffi $ fi fi 200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%05000010000015000018681903190919151921192719331939194519511957196319691975198119871993199920052011.flfl3Dfi$8fl6Wfl:fi
4、:#(,)fl fi :fi:#(q%) :fifl z fi $y$ q9flD2$9 fi:(1868-1880$):1880$q9fl,flO52flc=127fl,$4=fifi41.33%flWfl(1881-1920$):1920$q9$fi4281 fl,W$4=fifi8.59% $Wfl(1921-1955$):1955$q9$fi10617fl,W$4=fifi5.02% flfl(1956-1975$):1975$q9$fi1955$fiH,10582fl,W$4=fi0.06% 5fl(1975$):fl5Wq9fifl fi,C$ yfifl#fi9io fl flJ
5、9 L q9flfl# yfi,q9fltfl4s ffi& fi$)ofl0fl:1949$)$)fi$,;)ofl$flYJ$ 0sfi,9 1949$-1978$ fly9,1979-2000$ 0,2001$-2010$ v flfi,fi2011$fi$ flK|fl:ffi (:)ofl flJgqflfifl .cxefi$#flfi, g qflfiflflflK.cxefi$#flfib ,fiofluflZ. flflfifi#fl, fifl P ?ofl ffi flfi,ffi C $flfl|-10%-5%15%10%5%0%20%25%35%30%01000050
6、0004000030000200006000070000*:1952$)on,9000080000195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016 :fi(fl ) :fifi fi $y$ :fi:fl fi (q ).flfl0fi$&ofl$ofl50%20%40%60%80%100%120%125120115110105100959085801978197919801981
7、19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016$:4:fifl$: fiA:fifl(q8)fi;4fi;21fiflO UIK THfl$&q !%:$ +$fi +fl/3D3 fi $y$ $:; :$fl:5 3 (q8)-E$fifl z$ 56$#:J 7 _fi 7flfi, UIK”+, TH.=flfi,M$3flfiJflfiY!:$#VflL
8、J2fiJXXfi$fi0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%8000090000100000110000120000130000140000150000197619811991199620111986?:fi(M)QfiQ=fiQfifi +2flfi%:430fiflfiJfi,!flfi$ Mfi$flfi E-P F?Q=)fifl; 6P.flfl fi$ Gfl%(.:fifl z?fifl zfl:S?fifl I$20012006?:fifl :CR4(qD)/q7T fi $y$ /Gflfl. F? $AfiJOfi,C3 :fi :A,$ Mfi.$ 5F$A$.
9、 7$V= _fiHfi fihy j flLmfl Afi$=?X$fi%?Xn$6?X$? V,#$!fi _flk400m3fios 30rfis 30rfi$s$7KG 2&fi5y W;$TJTflM($2017/6/30 ih+:N%O;!Zfi$ k_ Zfipfi$s $ I1.25:1%fl k fl;$6q3s6$s7. $_1.15_12B$ fi)fl$ fiflz t N$%DfiX$v$OZA z7zq$wOqz z$OB$ Ofi flflPEfl4$U$w$Lfipfi,.IyC$QS$Lw fifl p $w$Lbfl$B t sfifiNw$LIfiflz
10、;3$ve2$c2$ Qe2$fi:e2$fififi: c2$?fi 4fifi fifipl3ffiflfivfl$ fi Ufi$l3 fl$KXflfi dfi 4fifi=.$ fl”:3fl. fi?3fl,+$ 20/,*) $,%fl20/.1,: fi fifiU9 fi$fl $fi*$ lYRsfi?cfl?$qflfl: lYflK,0s$fifi flfiX fl21fi sTe1997flfi CfifisfiE%fifl0Qp:ICfi;Ifl%$fla:ki$fl$, lYR$fiKfl$fipi :I:Epfifl flTSfi) fifiUfifi)sfiB
11、E+fifihCfiD$ fiflfl0Qp$fi flfl fiiDfl T=$Efifi h,3$Q=.$fl”:nflg!fi?efifi$R:NflcfiZfis10 lY:fl lY,r$fifiyfl lYR, m.$. fi.lfil_flfi$fl$ WVTflL1flfi,$ figfl$fl5fiN M$fi!3WN M$fiflb! $SU;flfi C$flfi;fi fl$fi ;flJ$ufifi ufifi fl$fi 26fi 67fi 9fi 72$ Hfi4Afi fifi$ fiflgfi flfifiUfi $fi$ 7Wfifi% fifi V flf
12、i y Zflflc$fi fl fi qt fi flfi fl$o fi 5 d mtfl fl$fi Vfl fiy fi_ fi tfiGodmL$ $ $X;fi,$2flflfi$X;$fififi c$fi% fiflfifipg+ jfl$fifl; HfiKfi Vfifi E$flV fl$fi;tfi fifi =.$fl”:XflR fi?$ fi:$ figflWN M$,fiflfiX;fiGfiFfl1/O$fi; 11bfi$flfifiTHflfi?KfiVfl#Y,fiK,fi(7, M”fi%VflDUP$VflHXfl07$fi2fl$0flQT _fl
13、Y$,M”1AH?fl_fi(Z:flspXflfl$fi| pfi fi,%cflq 3()fl$ (,2fi$p)lfiQT YQ=T YQTYQT Yo$ fiyfi$44 m “ pfl J“(fi fifl3fi| p(K%$Wfifl fifi 3flZ % JCIfiZflfifi:fi%fi:fi %$fi,ns$E #+fi$etLfi| 3.fiZfi fifl#%Zfi flfi AfiXflJHffi $.5fi$ E,M”1A$XH fl,$H?flflyfi 4$ 4$ 4$yfi44yfi 4=.$fl”:VflM fi?“:a$flfi$fi ,Xk g()fl
14、$(Qfl12?flfi:?KfifiTHfl,fi Y;fiflfi$E,M”1A$Vflffi H?_fi(Z.$ flflfi ?flg ?13 $ fi $flfl1$fl?fi$ 1 :6fi1$ *; -B fl 4 $)fi ?fi; fi./ Bfi fl; 0 ?fi$ 1 ! :6fi1& *; =fi -Bfi0 $)fi ?fi; =fi./ Bfi23, 3 ?fi%.$ +flflfi&?flg1?flfi&1:&fl $flflfi,fifi-flfi- fififi)3fi 1 14 fl fl0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.5090
15、9510010511011512019821987199219972002200720125$ flfl 2 fifl5$ fl)fl 2 fi fifi#P flP $10% fifi#/5 3!45fi;.$ Gflflfi?flgK?$#Jfi:1982$fi$,?fl(!fiJ fifl$- :1982-2016$#GflA %fifi?fi$4qffi125$#:?):Gfl%fi: fifi)(C)%fi:fi R(C)%fi:F0JP (C) 15#&*:fifl z$fi+$ + fi $y$ .$#bflflfiU?flgl?$V$#ifi: Rflflfifififflfi
16、f fififibflnfi Bl ,Q&flbflnfi$flfl$fi5.Wa:$5fi4fi $:$#bflWUfl-$JfiBflYffl,nfi$flMfi$&$fl 1flfi9095100105110115120125-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%19781990$#:d!fim:bfl:fifi 20022014fl&fi:$#:$(g):fifi f flfi?+$fi$. $fifi? $fi!$yfl,fi?fifi fi fififi? ffi*fl$ $nfi$fl-&$fl$#:U;:bfl() 16 #):$fi ,$T;,$ , fi $y$ j $ f
17、i100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%125120115110105100959019781983198819931998200320082013$:?*:fiflfiN1y$ q9fi : :;94 : &9fi : & q94 : :;.$hflflfiX?flgq?$Y$#nfi: Uflflfififijflfij$fififihflsfi%Eq ,S*flhflsfi$flfl$fi:.Zg=$:fi8fid (:flXfl. Uflf l,sfi%E q $fi$:K fiN1:fifl:fi8# (qD)*-0:$fi)3$TG3$ 3
18、fi $y$ $ fi fER;wfi5fl(q2)fifikfl,Z:fid $Q 2015$g a$,fifi8yflfi #q sfi%Ej$fi0$J% , O fi flfi( =17.$ 8flflfi/?flgB?, 4$ ;8flCfi:flfi/2:$fl A8/.$fi8 :2006-2018$; A8/D: :2000-2017$; $fi8&6506306105905705502006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018fi-fl:?() :$fifl z fi $y$ 30025020015010050020
19、0020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 fi6/;. =#fi fl (/) :fifi fi $y$ :2016$fi$; A8fi4$.-$4$ # :fifi fi $y$ 63%65%67%35,00040,000 :2016$fi$; 8fl0ffif i.5f f i D: 45,00069%201820132014201520162017;. =#fi fi(y) fifi3$(y/)fi%3$(y/)(1q85).$ flflfi2?flgD?flF=fiAfi flflfi2
20、3:2$q$fl=+fl,fl= fi 1 $fi= :2$q $fl=+ fl,fl= fi 1 $fi flF=fi Afi fl=,$4fl3 1 fl=;8fl=+fl600%400%200%0%-200%19912015199720032009 fi : fififl:!fiflz fi : fififl:$ flfiz$5*fl $%$flfifi$fi =,$4$(-3HCfl $flfifi+ fl;8fl fi fi+fl800%600%400%200%0%-200%19911997200320092015 fi :!fiflzfi :!z 19 :$fifl z fi $y
21、$ N# 2flZ2012*.; $.P0(;E9.88fiNfl9.88fi,Qfi/ Lfifi;flP”10,2020$fiRfl-0.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10700008000090000100000120000110000130000201620176000020082009N:X(fl)201020112012 L0fi:%fifi7(1/10)(T) L0fi:FP (T) Lfl fl :flflfi$fi$fifi.+$ :flflfifl$fifi.P flP fifi0201320142015 L0fi:fi R(T).$&XflflfiN?flg?
22、flg: L ;&Xfl$ LflflffiS,2020$4$fi Lfifi:2008$fi$&XflQ L0fifiNfi$Aqffi20.24:fifi flD fi $y$%.$ KflflfiD?flgU?flgU: flflfififiNflfiN fififiKflYfi .U ,EYfi4fi? .,TKfifiR !:Mysteel fi $y$ 112012201320142015201620172018(500)05001,0001,5002,00029fifi(y/7) !:Mysteel fi $y$ (500)05001,0001,50020112012201320
23、142015201620172018flfi(y/7) :Dfl$ P0WJfiOfifl,;$PflfiflKflYfi fi.fi !:$fi $T1$ $ fi $y$ :2016$KTfifiA ,2017-2018$R :2016$XflfifiA ,2017-2018$R 2,5002,0008010012014030%20%10%0%-10%-20%19962008196019721984$:4 fi8#:fiflfl fi#:$:%( ):fi$:* :fifl(q0)21$. 8flfi$.“$fiAflcV: J $fi/fi OfiK$? J $fi =cVfififlf
24、l5Nfi8 2VUS,$flfi8%8$; fiF :NflB8Wfl3fiH;$. 8flfifiZfififl #fl,$O$8%8, 8flfifiPD :Bloomberg fi $y$ 800%700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%198919952001 fi :500fifl 20072013 fi :500 3000%120%2500%100%2000%80%1500%60%1000%40%500%20%0%0%19681980199220042016 fi :fifififlfi :fifi J Jflfl 8a fi8 NPUS22$. &
25、flfi$#“$fi+fl9:fi $ :fl & %$#1979$ ,4.$&fi?fifi1fi &,$*?fi fl $1979$2018flF=Ofl= Q, = $5=-fl$=jfig9 L,fififl,=WNflF=Ofl= Q, = $5=-fl$=jfig L,fi d ,= :$#1970$ $fi:fl?fi;?B:$TZE$fi:E fi $y$. :$ 2008$ $fi:fl?fi;?B:fifi fi $y$.197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198225%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%fl fiD:$:%J( ):fi$:_ fiiD:fifl7%5%3%1%-1%-3%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%
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