數(shù)字化背景下的全球汽車業(yè)

1、GlobalResearch18 March 2019EquitiesFundamental AnalyticsEquitiesValuation, Modelling & AccountingGlobalBehind the numbers: AutosValuation, Modelling & AccountingGlobalWe launch the second of our series of collaborative sector analyses TheFundamentalAnalyticsteamhasteamedupwiththeUBSGlobalAutoSectort

2、eam (17analystsacrosssixregions)todeliverthesecondinitsseriesofcollaborativereports (seethefirstoneonpharmaceuticals HYPERLINK /shared/d2zsiyaxAmRU here).ThisreportfocusesonallthingsAutos.Itis writtento(1)provideinvestorsnewtoAutoswithanexhaustiveoverviewofeverything thatsrelevanttounderstandthesect

3、orfromanindustryandcompanyperspective,(2) help new and seasoned investors alike frame their financial statement and earnings quality analysis, and (3) provide a guide to the most commonly used accounting practices and pitfalls specific to the sector, how to spot them, interpret and adjust for them.T

4、hisreportisthego-toGlobalAutosectorhand-bookforequityinvestors. including a detailed global sector run-through Our report starts with a 50sector primer written on the basis of the combined expertiseandwealthofresourcesoftheUBSGlobalAutoSectorteam.Weexaminethe industry top-down and bottom-up, and bui

5、ld the bridge between industry structure, short-andlong-termtrendsandvaluegeneration(ordestruction)inthesector.Newto Autos?Startwiththis.SeasonedAutoinvestor?Makethisyoursectorhand-book. an OEM finco deep-dive Overthenext10pages,weshinealightononeoftheleastwell-understoodpartsof the industry, the OE

6、M fincos. We analyse over a decades worth of data to conclude that(1)fincosshouldbeseenascashgeneratorsduringtimesofautoindustrydecline and (2) simple finco valuations (e.g. 1.0 x P/B) may understate both the value in core fincooperationsaswellasthepotentialvalueinnew,stillloss-makingmobilityservice

7、s. and a global Autos earnings quality and accounting screenWe then round off the report with an analysis of critical accounting issues specific to Autos. We look at key differences between US GAAP and IFRS and their potential impact on reported earnings, including examples and our view on how to ma

8、ke adjustments. As part of this exercise, we screen the global UBS Autos coverage (58 stocks)alongthemostcommonlyusedaccountingrulesthatimpactreportedearnings, andrankthemonthebasisofmosttoleastconservativeintheiraccountingpractices. Forillustrativepurposes,weshowallcompaniesunderthemostconservative

9、practices andtheimpacttonetincomethiswouldhavewhichisover20%insomecases.GeoffRobinson,CAFCA HYPERLINK mailto:geoff.robinson +44-20-75671706Julian Radlinger,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:julian.radlinger +44-20-75681171Renier Swanepoel HYPERLINK mailto:renier.swanepoel +44-20-75689025Patrick Hummel,CFA HYPERL

10、INK mailto:patrick.hummel +41-44-239 7923Guy Weyns,PhD HYPERLINK mailto:guy.weyns +65-64953507PaulGong HYPERLINK mailto:paul.gong +852-29717868Colin Langan,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:colin.langan +1-212-7139949KoheiTakahashi HYPERLINK mailto:kohei.takahashi +81-3-52086172EugeneJung HYPERLINK mailto:eugene

11、.jung +82 2 37028801SonalGupta HYPERLINK mailto:sonal.gupta +91-22-61556063David Lesne HYPERLINK mailto:david.lesne +44-20-75675815Yizhe Wang HYPERLINK mailto:yz.wang +852-29718007 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFI

12、CATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ONPAGE158. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singl

13、e factor in making their investment decision.ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250032 Executivesummary4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250031 Insights intoGlobal Autos4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250030 Understanding OEM fincos7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250029 Critical accounting issuesinAutos9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 Insig

14、hts intoGlobalAutos10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 How the industrymakes money10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 How OEMs make money11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 How parts suppliersmake money22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 How tire makers make money29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Why macro matters: interest rates, rawmats,FX

15、31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Its the cycle, stupid! Or is it?34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Cash is king in auto-land36 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 A look in the rear-view mirror: Autos inthe past39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Autosgoglobalinternationalexpansion40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 andintothedragonsden:entr

16、yintoChina41 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 The dragon learns to fly:ChineseOEMs45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 The golden era of Autos: not over yet (orisit?)46 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Where to from here? Disruption is the name ofthegame48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 To start:emissionsregulation49 HYPERLINK l _TOC

17、_250013 the Europeandieseldecline51 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 and vehicleresidualvalues53 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Medium term: Electrification55 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Long-term:shared mobility58 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 andautonomousdriving59 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Reading material61 HYPERLINK l _TO

18、C_250007 UnderstandingAutoFincos62 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Whatoperationsareincludedandhowmaterialaretheircontributions?62 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Are fincosoutperforming OEMs?63 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 How profitable arethese operations?64 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 What is the fincos cash flow impact

19、onOEMs?67 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 How should fincosbe valued?68 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Whose accounting ismostconservative?69 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 R&D capitalization70GeoffRobinson,CAFCA HYPERLINK mailto:geoff.robinson +44-20-75671706Julian Radlinger,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:julian.radlinger +44-20-

20、75681171Renier Swanepoel HYPERLINK mailto:renier.swanepoel +44-20-75689025Patrick Hummel,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.hummel +41-44-239 7923Guy Weyns,PhD HYPERLINK mailto:guy.weyns +65-64953507PaulGong HYPERLINK mailto:paul.gong +852-29717868Colin Langan,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:colin.langan +1-212-7139

21、949KoheiTakahashi HYPERLINK mailto:kohei.takahashi +81-3-52086172EugeneJung HYPERLINK mailto:eugene.jung +82 2 37028801SonalGupta HYPERLINK mailto:sonal.gupta +91-22-61556063David Lesne HYPERLINK mailto:david.lesne +44-20-75675815Yizhe Wang HYPERLINK mailto:yz.wang +852-29718007Associate income acco

22、unting71Pensionsaccounting71Critical accounting issuesinAutos72Key US GAAP versusIFRSissues72R&Dcapitalisation75Equity-accounted investments88Pensions94Other accounting issuesinAutos100Rebates, incentives, creditsandwarranties100Pre-serialproduction costs105Pre-productionengineeringcosts107The accou

23、nting for tooling115OEMprepayments117Impairments119Loss-making contracts130Asset-backedsecurities132Appendix135Pension accounting:The detail136Executive summaryThis report is the second in a series of collaborative reports between the UBS Fundamantal Analytics team and sector research analysts (see

24、the first one on pharmaceuticals HYPERLINK /shared/d2zsiyaxAmRU here). The objective of these reports is to help investors frame theirfinancialstatementandearningsqualityanalysis,andassistwithforecasting and valuation. To this end, this report is split into threeparts:Aglobalautosectorprimer(p1061)A

25、globalOEMfincodeep-dive(p6268)Ananalysisoncriticalaccountingissuesinthesector(p69134)Our global auto sector deep-dive is your go-to industry hand-book, written on the basis of the combined expertise of the UBS global Autos Research Team (17 analysts in six regions around the world) specifically from

26、 theperspective of equity investors.Insights into Global AutosOur global auto sector deep-dive is your go-to industry hand-book, written on the basis of the combined expertise of the UBS global Autos Research Team (17 analysts in six regions around the world) specifically from theperspective of equi

27、ty investors.Findourprimeronpages 10 61We start by examining the industy supply chain bottom-up, and answering the question How do OEMs, suppliers and tire makers make money?Parts suppliersTier 2 suppliersParts suppliersTier 2 suppliersComponentParts sales to otherend-marketsRaw materialsproductionR

28、etailersSparepartsaftermarketSales to (other) tiersuppliersOEMsIndirect vehicle DealersPowertrainFinancialproductionservicesDirect vehicle (used)Raw materialsVehicle AssemblyDealersvehicle salDirectes(new)Mobility servicesTiremakersTirereplacemwholesaleRaw materialsTire productionRetailersRetailersT

29、ire retailsalesSource: UBSWethencoverthemacro-economicfactorsrelevanttothesector(theautomarket cycle,consumptiongrowth,rawmaterials,interestrates,FX)andlookatthemost common ways of forecasting overall industrygrowth.Figure 2: US SAAR (million units, left-hand side) vs. University of Michigan Conditi

30、ons for Buying a New Vehicle Index (right-hand side)22201816141210180170160150140130120110100Figure 3: Correlation between US SAAR and University of Michigan Conditions for Buying a New Vehicle Index (12m moving average for both)30%20%10%0%-10%880670-20%-30%-40%R = 0.4074US SAARUS buyingconditions-3

31、0% -20% -10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Source:UniversityofMichigan,Wards,UBSestimatesSource: University of Michigan, Wards, UBSestimatesWe answer the key issues new and seasoned auto sector investors alike should understand:Does macro matter? (economic growth, consumption, interested rates) Or is it just abou

32、t the auto cycle?What impact on industry profits do raw materials and FX have? What are the most important markets?How much longer will China grow?Figure4:Passengervehiclepenetration(vehiclesownershipper1,000people) in Japan, South Korea andChina0South KoreaJapanChinaSource: CAAM, UBS estimatesNext,

33、 we build the connection between industry structure and why auto company balance sheets look the way they look (filled with cash!). We provide a short history lesson on the globalization the sector has undergone in the past two decades,coveringthespecificitiesoftheall-importantChinesemarket,andanaly

34、se whether the sectors golden era has just come to anend.Figure 5: Global auto sector organic sales growth vs. light vehicle unit sales and inflation (1996 = 100)-Figure 6: Global OEM and supplier EBIT growth (1996 = 100)-SuppliersOEMsUnitsalesInflation SuppliersOEMsSource:Companydata,UBSestimatesNo

35、te:Databasedon16largestglobally listed OEMs and 19 major listed suppliersSource: Company data, UBS estimates Note: Data based on 16 largest globally listed OEMs and 19 major listed suppliersFinally, we conclude the primer with a concise but exhaustive run-through of the keynear-,medium-andlong-term(

36、mega-)trendsfacingtheindustry,alwayswitha view on how they impact sector growth, profits and potentially valuation. This includesEmissions regulationThe European diesel decline and pressure on residualvaluesElectrificationShared mobilityAutonomous driving1 OEMsinclude: BMW,Daimler,FCA,Ford,GM,Honda,

37、Hyundai,Kia,Mazda,Nissan,PSA, Renault, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota and Volkswagen; Suppliers include: Adient, Aisin Seiki, Aptiv, Autoliv, BorgWarner, Continental, Delphi Tech, Denso, Faurecia, Gestamp, Hella, HyundaiMobis,Lear,Leoni,Magna,Schaeffler,Tenneco,Valeo,VisteonFigure 7: Global powertrain mix (

38、new car sales in million units)130EuropeanThe EV era0Strong global growthdrivenGlobal financial crisisdiesel declineEM; US + EUvolumes stable EM; US + EUvolumes stable peak levelwith car sales collapseThe golden era: Recovery in DM and unprecedented growth in ChinaPeak ICE car salesbegins Gasoline48

39、V/mildhybrid (gas)DieselHEVPHEVBEVSource: IHS, ACEA, CAAM, Fourin, EV-Sales, Inside-Evs, UBS estimatesScattered throughout the primer in the relevant sections, we provide short, foued ccountng eson tht eplan key setor-pefc acountng or modelling issues or simply explain industry jargon or common repo

40、rting peculiarities. The accounting lessonsare:#1R&DforAutoOEMsp14#2Production,wholesaleandretailp17#3AutoOEMswithcaptivefincosp19#4Supplierreportingquirksp28#5ChineseJVaccountingforOEMsp43#6Residualvaluesandfincoleasebooksp54#7Mobilityservicesp58Our short but focused finco deep-dive shines a light

41、on one of the least well-understood parts of the industry the financial services arms of OEMs.AlsoOur short but focused finco deep-dive shines a light on one of the least well-understood parts of the industry the financial services arms of OEMs.Alsohere,webuildonthecombinedexpertiseofourglobalAutos

42、research team, scrutinizing over a decades worth of data from the 10 majorcaptivefincosintheglobalOEMindustry.Ouranalysisanswerskey questions about the contribution and value of these businesses to theirindustrial parent companies.Findourfincodeep-dive on pages 62 68Our analysis yields two key concl

43、usions. Firstly, in a normal market environment withcardemandgrowth,fincosareloanprovidersandthereforecashconsumers. When demand turns negative, however, and finco receivables books shrink,theybecome cash generators and support the overall OEM free cash flow generation. Ten years of data tells preci

44、sely that story.Figure 8: Global auto OEM finco aggregate cash flow, 2007 2017 ($bn)806040200-20-40-60-802007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Cash Generated&InvestedCash provided throughFinancingSource: UBS ResearchSecondly, finco return on equity (ROE) a better metric for profitabi

45、lity than EBIT (margins) for these businesses has been on a steady decline since 2010/11.Figure9:GlobalautofincoROE(%)Figure10:GlobalautofincoROE(average2007-17)20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201724%21%24%21%19%18%15%13%13%11%9% 9% 9%25%20%15%10%5%0% Source: UBSe

46、stimatesSource: UBS estimatesOn average, sector ROE still covers its cost of capital (8-10%), but is 6-7%-pts lower today than 7 years ago. Combining these hard financial data with information about the OEMs growing activities in mobility services and related fields suggests such businesses are to b

47、lame at least partly for the decline in finco ROE. This is because they are largely still loss-making today and typically housed within the finco, depressing reported returns. An estimate of their operating losses would enable a more precise valuation of both the core, traditional finco activites (f

48、inancing cars), but also of the mobility services businesses(viausermultiples,forinstance).Basedonthisdynamic,manyfincos are arguably under-valued in sum-of-the-parts valuations for the OEMs if simply valued at book value (industry norm is 0.8-1.0 xP/B).ThethirdThethirdandfinalsectionofthereportpres

49、entsthekeyaccountingissues relevanttothesector.Weprovideexplanationsforandexamplesofthe consequencesthatapplicationofvariousaccountingrulescanhaveonkey financial metrics, and how to spot these issues. We also rank the UBS globalautocoverage(58stocks)onmosttoleastconservativeaccounting practicesbased

50、ontheearningsimpactfromdiscretionaryapplicationof accountingrules.Forillustrativepurposes,weshowallcompaniesunder themostconservativepracticesandtheimpacttonetincomethiswouldhave which is over 20% in some cases.Findouraccountingdeep- dive on pages 69 134This is how to read the chart below: the perce

51、ntage numbers comprise, if applicable, (1) the EBIT impact from choosing to report associate income above, instead of below EBIT, (2) the EBIT impact from capitalizing and amortizing a portion of R&D, and (3) the net income impact from assuming a different rate of return on pension plan assets than

52、the discount rate used on pensionobligations (a practice US GAAP permits, but IFRS doesnot).Figure 11: Illustrative examples of net EBIT and net income impact from applying the most conservative accounting practices across our global Autos coverage (2017/18 average)HyundaiHonda Aisin PirelliHyundaiM

53、obisDenso ApolloAutoliv GreatIsuzuMahindra &MahindraMazda Michelin MothersonSubaru Suzuki Aptiv Adient MagnaToyota BorgWarner ContinentalBAICHyundai Visteon PlasticOmniumLeoni FCA PSA GMDaimlerMando Geely VolkswagenKia RenaultGACTata MotorsJLR1%1%1%1%1%2%2%4%5%6%7%9%13%13%14%14%17%19%20%20%20%22%22%

54、23%25%25%29%43%44%63%66%Total earnings impact (2017/18)MostconservativeLeastconservative-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%AssociateincomeR&DcapitalizationPensionaccountingSource: UBSestimatesNote:accountingreferstothreeitems:(1)netbenefittoEBITfromR&Dcapitalizationandamortization,(2)reportingofincome froma

55、ssociatesaboveorbelowEBIT,(3)assumingadifferentrateofreturnonpensionplanassetsthanthediscountrateusedonpensionobligationsInsights into Global AutosHow the industry makes moneyThe global automotive industry, in its simplest form, can be split into three sub- sectors:partssuppliers,tiremakersandOEMs(o

56、riginalequipmentmanufacturers industry jargon for the carmakers). The supply chain is simple and shown below. The end-markets that the industry sells into are primarily the new car market,the used car market, the spare parts market (which may or may not include the tire replacement market, depending

57、 on your choice of definition) and, slowly but surely,amobilityservicesmarketthatincludesride-sharing,ride-hailing,andsoon.Figure 12: The automotive industry supply chain (simplified illustration)There are three sub-sectors in Auto-land: OEMs, parts suppliers and tire makersParts suppliersParts supp

58、liersTier 2 suppliersComponentParts sales to otherend-marketsRaw materialsproductionRetailersSparepartsaftermarketSales to (other) tiersuppliersOEMsIndirect vehicle salesDealersPowertrain productionFinancial servicesDirect vehicle sales (used)Raw materialsVehicleAssemblyDealersvehiclesalDirectes(new

59、)Mobility servicesTiremakersTirereplacemwholesaleRaw materialsTire productionRetailersRetailersTire replacement retail salesSource: UBSHow OEMs make moneyOEMs generate the lions share of their revenues by making and selling cars. Making typically means they purchase large amounts of steel and other

60、raw materials, and most of the parts that go into a car, with the exception of the engine and sometimes the transmission (together called the powertrain). Engine manufacturing is done mostly in-house, as this component has long been considered the heart of the vehicle a key means to differentiate fr