中國(guó)石油真 實(shí)成本研究

1、首字母縮略詞CICondence Intervals置信區(qū)間CO2Carbon二氧化碳CODChemical Oxygen Demand化學(xué)需氧量NO2Nitrogen Dioxide二氧化氮NOxNitrogen Oxides氮氧化物O3Ozone臭氧OROdds Ratio比值比、優(yōu)勢(shì)比PM10Particulate Matters under 10m可吸入顆粒物PM2.5Particulate Matters under 2.5m細(xì)顆粒物RRRelative Risk相對(duì)危險(xiǎn)度SO2Sulfur Dioxide二氧化硫VOCsVolatile Organic Compounds可揮發(fā)性有

2、機(jī)物VSLValue of a Statistical Life統(tǒng)計(jì)生命價(jià)值目錄 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 ExecutiveSummary7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 執(zhí)行報(bào)告17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 前言29石油利用的環(huán)境影響30石油開采與運(yùn)輸石油加工石油消費(fèi)石油開采、加工與消費(fèi)的二氧化碳排放石油開采、加工與消費(fèi)的環(huán)境外部成本核算43環(huán)境外部成本核算框架與方法環(huán)境成本核算結(jié)果思考與建議64利用的環(huán)境影響以經(jīng)濟(jì)手段促進(jìn)石油的清潔化利用促進(jìn)公眾參與以科技發(fā)展促進(jìn)環(huán)境保護(hù)參考文獻(xiàn)67Executive SummaryThe

3、production and consumption of oil caused a series of damages to the environment and public health in China. However, at present, the calculated costs of oil do not include all the resource and environmental costs, which results in the underestimation of oil production and utilization costs. In order

4、 to promote the internalization of oils external costs in China, this project tries to analyze the True Cost of Oil, which refers to the impacts of oil-production, oil-transportation, oil-processing, and oil-consumption on water, the atmosphere, soil, climate and health, and the monetized environmen

5、talexternal costs for the above four areas in China.The Environmental impact of OilUtilizationOil-production and transportationPetroleum production and transportation impact regional water resources significantly. In terms of the distribution of petroleum and water resources in China, the eight main

6、 basins with concentrated distribution of oil resources often face water scarcity, as shown in Figure 1. Irregular production and utilization of petroleum may affect water conservation and sustainableutilization.Figure 1 Petroleum production and water resources comparison by provinces in ChinaThe na

7、tural water cycle can be disturbed by exploratory well drilling and water injection both before and during petroleum extraction, which consumes large quantities of dischargeswastewater,andpollutessurfacesoilandgroundwaterwithpetroleum leakage, indirectly causing ecological degradation. In the oil th

8、e most serious pollution is caused by the leakage of crude oil and of water-based drillingfluids.The oil production process also produces volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM) and other atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas emissi

9、ons, which are the important precursors of PM2.5 and O3. In 2015, the emissions of VOCs, SO2, NOx, PM, and CO2 in Chinas petroleum exploration industry were 122 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons, 28 thousand tons, 9 thousand tons and 2.21 million tons respectively.Crude oil is transported mainly via s

10、hipping and pipelines, including railways and highways. Marine oil spill accidents bring huge economic loss to fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, marine transportation, and other industries, and causes abnormal changes in the marine ecosystem. China releases about 1.28 million tons of oil into

11、 the sea every year (including industrial emissions, oil spills from ships, oil spills from accidents, leakage from undersea oil fields and blowoutaccidents).Oil-processingThe petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing industries, as well as the manufacturing of raw chemical materials

12、 and chemical products, which are closely related to oil consumption, are all high-water-consuming industries. According to the Second National Economic Survey in 2008, in the above-mentioned industries water intake reached 6.76 billion cubic meters, accounting for 10.0% of total water use. The manu

13、facturing of raw chemical materials and chemical products accounted for 7.1%, oil processing, coking, and the processing of nuclear fuel accounted for 1.5%, and the oil andgasexplorationindustryaccountedfor1.3%.Theseindustriesrankedsecond,tenth and twelfth respectively in water intake by industrial

14、enterprises above a designated size, as shown in Figure2.10acturingindustry of rawProportion of 9and Proportion of Coal mining and w ashing industryNonmetallic mineral products industry%/占取8Processingindustryof%/占取and and products industryTextile industry6Textile industryFarm and sideline food proce

15、ssing industryrsgsryffrrmetal smelting and rolling5nuclearfuelprocessingOil processing, coking andindustryOil processing, coking andindustry3210Communication equipment, computer and other electronict fcrOil and natural gas extraction industryProportion of water intake of industrial enterprises above

16、 designated size by industry(the production and supply industry of electric power and heating power ranking the first is not listed)Figure 2 Proportion of water intake of industrial enterprises above a designated size by industry(The production and supply industry for electric power and heating rank

17、ed first and isnot listed)Table 1 Discharge quantity of pollutants in industrial wastewater of oil-related industries and ranking among key investigation industriesIndustryOil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industryManufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical product

18、sDischarge quantity（t）RankingDischarge quantity（t）RankingCOD-34.62Ammonia1.535.81Petroleum2738120862Volatile Phenol790.81852Cyanid581402Note: data source from China Environmental Status（2015）, and refers to temporary data missing.Petroleum processing, coking, nuclear fuel processing1, and raw chemic

19、al materials and chemical product manufacturing are all also important sources of atmospheric pollutants. In 2015, the emissions of VOCs, SO2, NOx, PM and CO2 in the petroleum processing industry were 1.7 million tons, 0.2 million tons, 0.2 million tons, 84 thousand tons and 190 million tonsrespecti

20、vely.In the process of petroleum processing, there are a variety of industrial solid wastes, including waste catalysts, waste adsorbents, waste ceramic balls, etc., as well as coal ash slag and domestic garbage generated by power stations. The petroleum processing industry produces 370 million tons

21、of general industrial solid waste, accounting for 11.8% of total industrial output. The output of hazardous waste was 9.15 million tons,accounting for 23.0% of the total output of industrial hazardous waste.Oil-consumptionChinas refined oil products (including gasoline, kerosene, and diesel) account

22、 for about 53% of total oil consumption, used mainly for motor vehicles and non-road mobile machineries. The exhaust emitted by mobile sourceS2 contains hundreds of different pollutants, including NOx, VOCs, PM, hydrocarbons, etc., and is an important precursorIndustrial classication for national ec

23、onomicactivitiesMobilesourcesincludemotorvehiclesandnon-roadmobilemachineriessuchasconstructionmachinery, agriculturalmachinery,smallgeneralmachinery,dieselgeneratorsets,ships,railwaydiesellocomotives,and aircraft.for PM2.5 and O3. The health effects of air pollution are characterized by the number

24、of premature deaths caused by IHD, stroke, COPD and LC. In 2015, the emissions of NOx, VOCs, PM, SO2 and CO2 from mobile sources were million tons, 4.9 million tons, 1.02 million tons, 0.8 million tons and 820 million tons respectively. The emissions of NOx, PM, VOCs, SO2 and CO2 from mobile sources

25、 (including motor vehicles and non-road mobile machinery) accounted for 98.2%, 72.6%, 72.6%, 75.9% and 80.9% of the emissions of air pollutants from oil-related industries,respectively.Anairqualitymodelwasusedtosimulatetheeffectsofatmosphericpollutantemissions from oil-related industries on the aver

26、age annual concentration of PM2.5. The results showed that, in 2015, petroleum-related industries accounted for 10.9% of the national PM2.5 concentration, with transportation accounting for 9.8% and the petrochemical industry accounting for1.1%.Plastics are one of the main products of the petroleum

27、industry. According to relevant research reports, plastic production accounts for 6% of total oil consumption, and its production, consumption, and disposal has negative environmental impacts. Some plastics can be recycled, but most of them are incinerated, disposed of in landfills, or otherwise dis

28、carded. Incinerated plastics can result in significant pollution, landfills can destroy soil structure and hinder plant growth, and plastics discarded in the sea can harm marine ecology and affect human health.The External Environmental Costs ofOilScope of environmental cost accountingIn the oil-pro

29、ducing and processing sectors, the main environmental costs to consider are water consumption, water pollution, soil pollution, air pollutant emissions, solid waste discharge and others (due to the difficulty of obtaining data, the environmental impacts of accidents, for example petrochemical and ch

30、emical explosions, were not considered). In the oil transportation sector, the main costs are from tanker transportation accidents, offshore oil exploration accidents, and other marine leakage cleaning. Marine ecological restoration costs, ecological loss costs during the recovery period, and other

31、costs are not considered (the cost of onshore oil spill management was not calculated due to low cost and the difficulty of obtaining data). In the oil- consumption sector, the main costs are from the impacts of mobile source emissions on human health and the impacts of plastic pollution on marine e

32、cosystems, plastic recycling, incineration, disposal, landfill, etc. on the atmosphere, soil, etc. Due to the lack of reliable data on exposure-response relationships and related statistical data on the health effects of water pollution from oil usage, this study has not yet calculated the value of

33、health losses due to waterpollution.Accounting of physical quantityAccounting of value quantityAccounting of physical quantityAccounting of value quantityWater resourcesWater resourcesGroundwater over exploitationShadow price of water resourcesWater resourcesWater resourcesGroundwater over exploitat

34、ionShadow price of water resourcesWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater dischargeWastewater treatment costWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater dischargeWastewater treatment costEnvironmental cost of oil consumptionEnvironmental cost of oil transportationEnvi- ron- mental cost of oilpro- cessingWate

35、r resourcesFrame- work of the Envi- ronmen- tal Costs of OilEnviron- mental cost of oilex- ploita- tionAir pollutionVirtual disposal cost of pollutantsSO2,Environmental cost of oil consumptionEnvironmental cost of oil transportationEnvi- ron- mental cost of oilpro- cessingWater resourcesFrame- work

36、of the Envi- ronmen- tal Costs of OilEnviron- mental cost of oilex- ploita- tionAir pollutionVirtual disposal cost of pollutantsSO2,NOx,PMandVOCsemissions12Soil pollutionPollution area around oil wellsCost of deep soil remediationSoil pollutionPollution area around oil wellsCost of deep soil remedia

37、tionSolid wasteQuantity of solid wastesVirtual disposal cost of solid wastesSolid wasteQuantity of solid wastesVirtual disposal cost of solid wastesGreenhouse gasQuantity of CO2 dischargeGreenhouse gasQuantity of CO2 dischargeClimate change damageWater resourcesGroundwater over exploitationShadow pr

38、ice of water resourcesWater resourcesGroundwater over exploitationShadow price of water resourcesWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater dischargeWastewater treatment costWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater dischargeWastewater treatment costAir pollutionVirtual disposal cost of pollutantsSO2Air poll

39、utionVirtual disposal cost of pollutantsSO2,NOx,PMandVOCsemissionsSolid wasteQuantity of solid wastesVirtual disposal cost of solid wastesSolid wasteQuantity of solid wastesVirtual disposal cost of solid wastesGreenhouse gasQuantity of CO2 dischargeGreenhouse gasQuantity of CO2 dischargeClimate chan

40、ge damageOffshoreoil spill pollutionLeakage quantity of oil tanker, offshore oil exploitation accident andect.Cleaning cost of oil spillOnshoreoil spill pollutionOil leak on landOffshoreoil spill pollutionLeakage quantity of oil tanker, offshore oil exploitation accident andect.Cleaning cost of oil

41、spillOnshoreoil spill pollutionOil leak on landGreenhouse gasQuantity of COGreenhouse gasQuantity of CO2 dischargePlasticpollutionPlastic discharge quantityPlasticpollutionPlastic discharge quantityPremature deathsCleaning cost of oil spill (not included)Climate change damagePremature deathsCleaning

42、 cost of oil spill (not included)Climate change damageMarine, atmosphere, water and soil Ecological EffectsValue of statistical lifeQuantity of CO2 Quantity of CO2 dischargeClimate change damageFigure 3 External environmental cost accounting indicatorsThe calculation of oil external environmental co

43、stsThe accounting results show that if the impact of oil usage on the climate is not considered, the 2015 external environmental cost was 347 yuan / ton of oil. When taking into account the impact of oil usage on the climate, the external environmental cost was 507 yuan / ton of oil.2 External envir

44、onmental costs of oilNote1SectionCategoryIndicatorAccounting result (yuan/ ton) Note2Oil-producingWater resourcesWater resourcesGroundwateroverexploitation and shadow price of waterresources6.6(16.6）Environmental pollutionWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater discharge, and Wastewater treatment cost

45、1.9(4.9)Air pollutionQuantity of SO2, NOx, PM and VOCs emissions，Virtual disposal cost of pollutants2.4(6.1)Soil pollutionPollution area around oil wells， Cost of deep soil remediation1.1(2.8)Solid waste pollutionQuantity of solid wastes，Virtual disposal cost of solid wastes0.1(0.3)Subtotal12.1(30.7

46、) Note 3Oil- transportationOcean transportationOil spillDischarge of oil，Cleaning cost of oil spill1.2 Note 4Oil-processingWater resourcesWater resourcesGroundwateroverexploitation and shadow price of waterresources1.8Environmental pollutionWater pollutionQuantity of wastewater discharge, and Wastew

47、ater treatment cost1.8Air pollutionQuantity of SO2, NOx, PM and VOCs emissions，Virtual disposal cost of pollutants37.3Solid waste pollutionQuantity of solid wastes，Virtual disposal cost of solid wastes0.2Subtotal37.3Oil-consumingEnvironmental pollutionPlasticlutionMarine ecological eects, impact of

48、incineration, landll and etc on atmosphere, water, soil and etc.17.4Economic Loss Caused by Airpollution to the Human Health Note 5Premature deaths，Value of statistical life278.6(181.7-423.7) Note 6Subtotal296(199.1-441.1)Subtotal， excluding climate impact346.6(249.7-491.7)Climate impactGreenhouse g

49、asQuantity of CO2 discharge， Climate change damage160.7(160.7-782.1) Note 7Subtotal， including climate impact507.3(410.4-1273.8)Note：1Thefactorsnotconsideredmainlyinclude(1Theimpactofoffshoreoilexploitationonmarineecosystems(2Impactsofmarine ecologicalremediationofmarineoilspillsandecologicallossesd

50、uringtherecoveryperiod(3Theimpactofonshoreoilspillsonthe environment(4Impactsofaccidentssuchasexplosionsinpetrochemicalorchemicalcompanies.Theenvironmentalcostaccountingresultsofpetroleuminthetableareamortizedtotheoilconsumptionperton;Thevaluesinbracketsarewaterresourceconsumptionreductionandenviron

51、mentalpollutioncostperunitofoilextraction.Duetothetype,scaleandtreatmentofoilspills,aswellasdifferencesinlabor,treatmentmethods,andpricesindifferentcountries, theprocessingcostperunitofoilleakageisbetweenUSD78.12andUSD76589.29.Comparedwiththepreviousedition,thehumanhealthcostofthisstudyhasincreased.

52、Therearetwomainreasons:firstly,dueto differentValueofaStatisticalLife;secondly,theimpactofO3 pollutiononhumanhealthisincreased.DuetotheuncertaintyofValueofaStatisticalLife,thehealthcostofunitoilconsumptionisbetween181.7-423.7RMB/tonoil.Duetotheuncertaintyofthesocialcostofgreenhousegases,theunitsocia

53、lcostofgreenhousegasesisbetween160.7-782.1RMB/ton of oil.PolicySuggestionsReduce the environmental impact of oil exploitation and utilization from the sourceThe planning layout of the petroleum and petrochemical industry should fully consider the constraints and carrying capacity of regional water r

54、esources, and limit the launching of petroleum and petrochemical projects in areas with “water resources overload”.Improve relevant standards of the petroleum and petrochemical industries, and clearly define requirements for water intake and consumption, water-use efficiency, discharge quantity of w

55、astewater and waterStrengthen prevention and control of petrochemical and motor vehicle pollution and reduce pollutantdischarge.Strengthen oil transportation safety management and reduce environmental pollution caused by oilleakage.Promote the clean use of petroleum through economic measuresStrength

56、en the monitoring and restoration of the impact of oil exploration enterprises on the ecological environment, and gradually establish a feasible ecological compensation and restorationmechanism.Promote internalization of environmental costs through taxmeasures.On the production side, research and ad

57、just the structure of tax policies, from taxing individual VOCs to taxing total VOCs emissions. Improve VOCs equivalent value to promote VOCs emission reduction.On consumption side, improve the fuel consumption tax system to take environmental costs into consideration.To reduce greenhouse gas emissi

58、on, develop a carbon tax system or improve the carbon trading system to enhance greenhouse gas reduction.Promote public participation to reduce oil consumption（1）Raise the public awareness of the importance for an oil cap in China.（2）Promote green consumption and green transportation, lead the publi

59、c to participate in plastics recycling, and strengthen plastics reduction.Scientic and technical supportStrengthen the development and promotion of new technologies such as green oil exploitation, pollutant emission control and ecological environmentrestoration.Promote the development of waste plast

60、ics recycling technology and reduce the impact of waste plastics on theenvironment.執(zhí)行報(bào)告中國(guó)政府以成品油價(jià)格為重點(diǎn)，不斷推進(jìn)市場(chǎng)化改革，基本建立了既反映國(guó)內(nèi)外市場(chǎng)供求關(guān)系、又有利于促進(jìn)節(jié)約石油和改善能源安全的價(jià)格形成機(jī)制，但在石油開發(fā)利用的環(huán)境外部成本方面，對(duì)資源消耗、生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞、健康影響等成本仍然存在低估。目前發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)于氣候變化、生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞、健康影響等外部成本也并未完全內(nèi)部化， 但在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，推動(dòng)石油開發(fā)利用的環(huán)境成本逐步內(nèi)部化，是各國(guó)引導(dǎo)石油合理消費(fèi)的共識(shí)。在此背景下，本研究梳理了石油的開采、