申萬海外研究報告萬地產3377hk sino-ocean land holdings

1、99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Reale|BringingChinatothe23JulyBrightlights ofthebigMarket Data: ClosingPricelnd99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329Reale|BringingChinatothe23JulyBrightlights ofthebigMarket Data: ClosingPricelnd YoY(%) YoY(%)e(Rmbm) EPS(Rmb) ROE(%)Net Gearing (%) PE(x)PB ekHig

2、h/Low(HK$) Market Cap (US$m) Market Cap (HK$m) Exchange Rate (Rmb-Price Performance CoreEPSiscalculatedasifallnon-recurringitemsare1H15 Sales up4% YoY.Beijing-basedSOEdeveloperSino-OceanrecordedcontractsalesRmb13.8bn in 1H15, up 4% YoY and representing c.34% of the companys full-10% -of Rmb40bn (the

3、 same as its ). Sino-fulfilment lags the rest the sector somewhat as it has delayed project launches in higher-tier cities in hope of better selling , but with more prime location projects to be put onto the market see a high t the company will beat ; we expect monthly sales accelerate from Rmb2.3bn

4、 in 1H15 bn in 2H15. Broken down by key the company forecast sales of Rmb15bn in Beijing for 2015, sales of Rmb4-5bn in Shenzhen and sales of Rmb3-4bn in Shanghai.ack to high-end. During the real e down cycle in 2014, Sino-Ocean shifted project acquisitions focus back -tier cities (of the 17 project

5、s acquired, six are Beijing and two in Shanghai). In 1H15, the company entered three strong city markets Nanjing, Guangzhou and acquired another eight projects, large-scale projects in Shenzhen, two in Hangzhou, and oneianjin. This raises its total sellable resourto Rmb160bn-plus, of which Beijing a

6、ccounts for moren 30%.RelatedSino-Ocean Land (3377HK)LightofdawnMay Borrowing cost drops further. Thecompanyscostofborrowingfellfrom7.08%in2014to below 7% in 1H15 after its i e of US$1.2bn in offshore notes 3Q14 and a further US$1.2bn in 1Q15. Wi number of Chi developers (Evergrande Real Es e Group

7、(3333:HK), Longfor Properties (960:HK), Guangzhou R&F properties (2777:HK) completing onshore bond i es, Sino-Ocean has indicated it expects to get approval to i e east Rmb10bn in bonds wi n estimated yield of no more n 4% he near future.erim results preview. We expect Sino-Ocean gross margin to rec

8、over from a low of c.20% in 1H14 to 22-23% in 1H15. However, xpect net marg o remain largely flat YoY as expenses fall in line with a slight decline in revenue booking. Core earnings are likely to decrease YoY in 1H15 due primarily to the delivery schedule; however, we ma ain our 20%-plus full-year

9、earnings growth forecast. In addition, in spite of a more active pace of land acquisitions over the period as compared to most of its peers, we still expect to see an improvement in net gearing in 1H15 (end-14: 76%).Ma ain BUY. We upgraded Sino-Ocean to BUY in early October 2014, since when the comp

10、anys stock has gained 31.3%. We remain upbeat on its long-term growth prospects supported by expan of scale and recovery in profitability as a result of the companys shift towards higher-tier markets. In addition, we also note its undervalued investment portfolio and -mover advantages in senior hous

11、ing development & management. We ma ain our core EPS forecasts unchanged at Rmb0.60 in 15E (+25% YoY) and Rmb0.76 in 16E (+26% YoY) and forecast 17E EPS of Rmb0.91 (+20% YoY). We revise up our net asset value (NAV) by c.9% from HK$9.47 to HK$10.23 to account for the new acquisitions Sino-Ocean Land

12、(3377HK)ReshuffleNovThecompanydoesnotholdanyequitiesor derivatives of the listed companyhisreport”),butweshallprovidefinan ladvisoryservi subject to the relevant laws andregulations.Anyaffiliatesofthemayholdequitiesof,exceed 1 percent of iedshare to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may

13、 also provide investmentingto.Companyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithin its sphere of knowledge. The c nts maycontactrelevantdisclosurematerialsorlog undercolumn for further information. The c nts shallhaveacomprehensiveunderstandingofthedisclosureanddi lastpage.eruponkeep NAV discount unchanged at 3

14、0%. We raise price fromHK$6.63toHK$7.20.With29%upside,weainourBUYratingonSino-本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用14-14-14-14-15-15-15-15-15-SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329e|RealBringingChinatothe的央企遠洋地產今年上半年實現(xiàn)合約銷售 1384%，與板塊同期 12%的同比增幅相比略微遜色，部分位于一線城市

15、的樓盤期望留待二季度賣到更好的價格是原因之一。公司年初將今年目標定在至少超過去年銷售額（400 ）的水準，參照 400 億全年目標上半年達成率僅為 38%（板塊平均為 認為公司完成該目標沒有壓力（預99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +86212329e|RealBringingChinatothe的央企遠洋地產今年上半年實現(xiàn)合約銷售 1384%，與板塊同期 12%的同比增幅相比略微遜色，部分位于一線城市的樓盤期望留待二季度賣到更好的價格是原因之一。公司年初將今年目標定在至少超過去年銷售額（400 ）的水準，參照 400 億全年目標上半年達成率僅為 38%（板塊平均為 認

16、為公司完成該目標沒有壓力（預15030-40 億）示平均月度銷售額將從上半年的23億躍升至至下半年的442014 年重新回到土地市場優(yōu)化區(qū)域布局以來（當年新購項目從11年的8個、123134個增17個，其6個項目位于大本遠洋地產在 2015 年延續(xù)了重城市的步伐，新進入三個高能級城市、廣州），總共獲取了 8 個優(yōu)質項目（除新進入城市各一個外，另有兩個大過并購低價格取得，此外還在已進入的分別獲取兩個和一個新項目）。這得公司權益可售貨源超1600要集中在一線和二線城市，包括大連，、和占到一半以上，而其余亦、杭州、中山、廣州。在14年7了5億美金五年期（票息 4.625%）和7億美金年期（票息 6%

17、）票據(jù)后，遠洋地產又在今年 1 7金五年期（和 5 億美金 12 年期（票息 5.95%）票據(jù)。目前公司的平均借貸成本已經(jīng)進一步下降到字頭（13 和 14 年分別為 7.33%和 7.08%）。跟隨大公司同業(yè)步伐、龍湖、富力已經(jīng)在 6-7 月分了 地產也有望很快獲境公司債，預計額度不低億元，參照已的票面利率預計五年期的成本可能僅4%左右而在即將到來的中報預計公司中期業(yè)績可能會出現(xiàn)小幅下滑，主系交付進致。事實上司的結算毛利率已于去年上半年見底（上半年 19%，下半年回升22%），中期可能會持穩(wěn)在去年下半年的水平，但由于結算收入減少導致中期的費用率有上升，因此與去年同期相對于全年超過兩成的凈利增凈

18、利率未有顯著改善而是大體持平。但這不會改，因毛利率見底回升。同時值得注意的是，雖然上半仍然花費了 70 多億（權益金額）購置土地，中期負債率還是會比去年底（76%）略有善在去年 9 月底將遠洋調升至買入并加的強烈買入表看公司的區(qū)域優(yōu)化步伐堅定延續(xù)，而其城市商業(yè)地產持有以及在養(yǎng)老地產域的先入優(yōu)勢（未來與大股壽有望進行進一步深入合作）也在持續(xù)推進和深每股收0.6（同比25%）/0.76（同比化2015/201626%），并引入20170.91（同比增長20%）。同時，因應近期的土地收購及更好城市房價假設港幣。公司目前估值相當于 46%凈資產值折價，7.4/5.9 倍 15/16 年 PE，0.7/

19、0.6 倍15/16PB，行業(yè)平均為40%凈資產值折價，7.6/6.8PE0.9/0.8PB看好未來一年的貨幣政策寬松和行業(yè)基本面改善，遠洋地產是價值首選標的之一繼的上升空間重申公司買。本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSlightincreaseof1H15contractedBeijing-based SOE developer Sino-Ocean recorded contract sales of Rmb13.8bn in 1H15, up YoY and re

20、presenting c.34% of the companys full-of Rmb40bn (the same as its ). Sino-fulfilment lags the rest of the sector somewhat as it has projectlaunchesinhigher-tiercitiesinhopeofbetterselling,but with moreprime projects to be put onto the market we see a high t the company will beat ;xpectmonthlysalesto

21、acceleratefromRmb2.3bnin1H15bninBroken down by key markets, the company forecast sales of Rmb15bn in Beijing for 2015, ofRmb4-5bnSlightincreaseof1H15contractedBeijing-based SOE developer Sino-Ocean recorded contract sales of Rmb13.8bn in 1H15, up YoY and representing c.34% of the companys full-of Rm

22、b40bn (the same as its ). Sino-fulfilment lags the rest of the sector somewhat as it has projectlaunchesinhigher-tiercitiesinhopeofbetterselling,but with moreprime projects to be put onto the market we see a high t the company will beat ;xpectmonthlysalestoacceleratefromRmb2.3bnin1H15bninBroken down

23、 by key markets, the company forecast sales of Rmb15bn in Beijing for 2015, ofRmb4-5bninShenzhenandsalesofRmb3-4bninFigure1:1H15ContractedsalesSource: Company data, SWS Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用YearlyContractedSales(RMB %Chg 0000023699 600048 CHA-sharePoly 688H

24、K 2007 %33338131109CR 3900 HK 1918HK 960 HK 600383CH 2777China33833377 119 HKPolyPpty 2868HK1813884123832 81337 MontlyContractedsales(Rmb%Chg1Hof2202e3369 6882007 33338131109CR390019189602777China33833377119Poly28681813884123832 81337 Figure3:HistoricalcontractedsalesofSino-oceanbreakdownbySource: C

25、ompany data, SWS Figure4:Assetsedin000RmbperOcean OceanHoliday Grand Ocean ChansonMan BondCastle OceanFigure3:HistoricalcontractedsalesofSino-oceanbreakdownbySource: Company data, SWS Figure4:Assetsedin000RmbperOcean OceanHoliday Grand Ocean ChansonMan BondCastle OceanBeach Ocean Source: Company dat

26、a, SWS Figure5:TrendofFigure6:BreakdownofFY15sellable-12007 ASPachieved through contracted sales %Chg YoY of ASP Therestof5Source: Company data, SWS Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Sellable UnitSellable unsoldasofCurrent Sep sfurtherDuring the real e down cycle in 201

27、4, Sino-Ocean shifted its project focus back -tier cities (of the 17 projects acquired, six are in Beijing and two Shanghai). In 1H15, the company entered three strong city markets o Guangzhou and acquired another eight projects, scale projects in Shenzhen, two in Hangzhou, and ianjin. This raises i

28、ts sellabletoRmb160bn-plus,ofwhichBeijingaccountsfornFigure7:GeographicalSource: Company data, SWS Figure8:Numberofprojectsacquiredineachcityduringthenational11631342112111sfurtherDuring the real e down cycle in 2014, Sino-Ocean shifted its project focus back -tier cities (of the 17 projects acquire

29、d, six are in Beijing and two Shanghai). In 1H15, the company entered three strong city markets o Guangzhou and acquired another eight projects, scale projects in Shenzhen, two in Hangzhou, and ianjin. This raises its sellabletoRmb160bn-plus,ofwhichBeijingaccountsfornFigure7:GeographicalSource: Comp

30、any data, SWS Figure8:Numberofprojectsacquiredineachcityduringthenational11631342112111333112111 21112123122112121112121121117698348Note:Thosehighlightedinredrefertothe Source: Company data, SWS ResearchprojectheFig9:Comparisonof1H15Landacquisitionsas%ofContractedSource:Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人moni

31、torInner(monitorInner)使用 As%ofcontractedCRCountry Sino-Poly#ofProjectsEnter 1994- Figure10:Sino-eptactiveinreplenishinglandreservesinRMB5076 Source: Company data, SWS Figure11:Therisingconcentrationinhigh-tiercitiesfollowingachangeofacquisition000sqmSource: Company data, SWS Figure12:Breakdownbyerms

32、ofattributablesellable The rest of c.10 Source:Figure10:Sino-eptactiveinreplenishinglandreservesinRMB5076 Source: Company data, SWS Figure11:Therisingconcentrationinhigh-tiercitiesfollowingachangeofacquisition000sqmSource: Company data, SWS Figure12:Breakdownbyermsofattributablesellable The rest of

33、c.10 Source: Company data, SWS 通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用本 AvglandAvglandAvglandAvglandAvgland Borrowingcostdrops. The companys cost of borrowing fell from 7.08% in 2014 to below 7% in 1H15 after ieofUS$1.2bninoffshorenotes3Q14andafurtherUS$1.2bninnumber of developers (Evergrande Real e G

34、roup (3333:HK), Properties Borrowingcostdrops. The companys cost of borrowing fell from 7.08% in 2014 to below 7% in 1H15 after ieofUS$1.2bninoffshorenotes3Q14andafurtherUS$1.2bninnumber of developers (Evergrande Real e Group (3333:HK), Properties (960:HK), Guangzhou R&F properties (2777:HK) complet

35、ing onshore ies, Sino-Ocean has indicated it expects to get approval to east Rmb10bn bondsnestimatedyieldofno n henearFigureerestbearingdebt(Rmbmn)ofSino-oceanof2,533,14,880,30,724,eturalOn-shore Source: Company data, SWS Figure14:Sino-oceanedtwoadditionallong-durationoffshorebondsinearly2015withlow

36、 55-Senior SeniorNotes SeniorNotes Senior P etualSubordinatedCapitalSource: Company data, SWS Figure15:ChinaopeneddoorfordeveloperstoeRmbainlandmarketsince18-Jun-7-Jul-7-Jul-7-Jul-16-Jul-3333333333339602777 574554.3-6.5-4.6-4-4.5- Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用 eDat

37、eAskrangeeAmount Fig16:Creditratingandoutlookgrantedby6882202 11093699817337712333796020078138321918390033832777181333337541387845Fig16:Creditratingandoutlookgrantedby6882202 11093699817337712333796020078138321918390033832777181333337541387845PolyReal CR Land eSino-ocean GreenlandHK Source: SWS Fig1

38、7:YieldComparisonof5-Yoffshorebondsedduring2013-Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Long-term Credit erimresultsxpect Sino-Ocean gross o recover from a low of c.20% in 1H14 to 22-23% o remain largely flat YoY as expenses fall in 1H15. xpect net slight decline in revenue b

39、ooking. Core earnings are likely to decrease YoY in due primarily to the delivery schedule; however, we ma ain our 20%-plus full-earnings growth forecast. In addition, in spite of a more active pace of land acquisitions over the period as compared to most of its peers, we still expect to see an impr

40、ovement in net gearing in 1H15 (end-14: 76%).Figure18:erimresultsxpect Sino-Ocean gross o recover from a low of c.20% in 1H14 to 22-23% o remain largely flat YoY as expenses fall in 1H15. xpect net slight decline in revenue booking. Core earnings are likely to decrease YoY in due primarily to the de

41、livery schedule; however, we ma ain our 20%-plus full-earnings growth forecast. In addition, in spite of a more active pace of land acquisitions over the period as compared to most of its peers, we still expect to see an improvement in net gearing in 1H15 (end-14: 76%).Figure18:Grossomoderaterecover

42、andnetoGrossProfitUnderlyingNetProfitSource: Company data, SWS Figure19:Netgearingmayseeabitimprovementin98% 35% Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用 Aside from the on-going shift in the companys geographical focus, we note acceleratedpay-outfromSino-OceansprojectFollowin

43、gthe completionof theretailpartofthelarge-scale cityurbancomplexproject Chengdu Taikoo Li in late 2014, total leasable gross floor area (GFA) held by Sino-ocean topped c.660,000m2 (or 330,000m2 in attributable sense, primarily in Beijing) byof 2014. The company has a further c.10 projects, or c.1.8m

44、m2 in commer l properties under construction.Total e (including management fees) generated by existing portfolios increased 28% YoY b1bn in 2014, and the company guided by 2020. In addition, Aside from the on-going shift in the companys geographical focus, we note acceleratedpay-outfromSino-Oceanspr

45、ojectFollowingthe completionof theretailpartofthelarge-scale cityurbancomplexproject Chengdu Taikoo Li in late 2014, total leasable gross floor area (GFA) held by Sino-ocean topped c.660,000m2 (or 330,000m2 in attributable sense, primarily in Beijing) byof 2014. The company has a further c.10 projec

46、ts, or c.1.8mm2 in commer l properties under construction.Total e (including management fees) generated by existing portfolios increased 28% YoY b1bn in 2014, and the company guided by 2020. In addition, with more projects to be he years to come, Sino-Ocean expects total e would grow completed and o

47、 eto exceedRmb3.5bn byFigure20:Investmentpropertiesalreadyin Ocean Plaza (遠Ocean Office (遠洋光華國際We-Life (遠洋未來廣場 Source: Company data, SWS Figure21:Investmentpropertiesunder l center II Yixingbuproject DiamondBay 2016-er Zhonghua Business erSource: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner

48、)使用TotalGFAYearof Taikoo Li (遠洋太古里We-Life (遠洋未來廣場INDIGO (頤堤港lCenterBlock(遠洋國際中心A 座TimeofLeasableGFA%ChgYoYof (000In contrast to the large investment portfolio revaluations booked by some of its Sino-Ocean has taken a conservative approach, with its entire existing properties portfolio valued at b12b

49、n by end-2014, significantlyundervaluedcomparedwithcurrentmarket.ainWeupgradedSino-OceantoBUYinearlyOctober2014,sincewhenthecompanyshas gained 31.3%. We remain upbeat on its long-term growth pported ofscaleandrecoveryinprofitabilityasaresultofthecompanysshifthigher-tiermarkets.Inaddition,wealsonotei

50、tsundervaluedinvestmentportfolio-mover advantages in senior housing development & management. We maain our core EPS forecasts unchanged at Rmb0.60 in 15E (+25% YoY) and Rmb0.76 in 16E (+26% YoY)andforecast17EEPSofRmb0.91(+20%YoY).WereviseupourIn contrast to the large investment portfolio revaluation

51、s booked by some of its Sino-Ocean has taken a conservative approach, with its entire existing properties portfolio valued at b12bn by end-2014, significantlyundervaluedcomparedwithcurrentmarket.ainWeupgradedSino-OceantoBUYinearlyOctober2014,sincewhenthecompanyshas gained 31.3%. We remain upbeat on

52、its long-term growth pported ofscaleandrecoveryinprofitabilityasaresultofthecompanysshifthigher-tiermarkets.Inaddition,wealsonoteitsundervaluedinvestmentportfolio-mover advantages in senior housing development & management. We maain our core EPS forecasts unchanged at Rmb0.60 in 15E (+25% YoY) and R

53、mb0.76 in 16E (+26% YoY)andforecast17EEPSofRmb0.91(+20%YoY).Wereviseupournetassetvalue(NAV) by c.9% from HK$9.47 to HK$10.23 to account for the new acquisitions and keep NAV discount unchanged at 30%. We raise price accordingly, HK$6.63toHK$7.20.With29%upside,weainourBUYratingon Sino-Figure22:NAVFig

54、ure23:Breakdownof Existing Inv PropertyRMB InvPropertyunder NAVpershareNAVpershareTherestof10 Source: Company data, SWS Source: Company data, SWS Fig24:Valuation PEPBNAV 3699-688-CR1109O-813O3333U-Sino-33771813O-Source:Bloomberg,Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用-Poly119U-3383O-27

55、77U-Country 2007-V2202-Appendix1, Background Figure1:Sino- Appendix1, Background Figure1:Sino- Source: Company data, SWS Figure2:ThestrategicplanofSino-oceanduring2015-Source: Company data, SWS 本通僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Appendix2, lFigure1:ePptysales PptymgmtCostofSales GrossProfit Appendi

56、x2, lFigure1:ePptysales PptymgmtCostofSales GrossProfit 5eDistribution Jo lycontrolledentities FinanceCostsProfit before InctaxProfitfortheMinority trtosecurity-to Dividendspaid BasicEPS CoreEarningsattrtoSource: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用RMBFigure2:ForecastLand use rig

57、hts Propertiesunder Land use rights Restrictedcash Figure2:ForecastLand use rights Propertiesunder Land use rights Restrictedcash Totalassets Retainedearnings Otherreserves erests Totalequity Non-currentliabilities TotalliabilitiesTotalequityand999Source: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(mon

58、itorInner)使用Figure3:ForecastCashFlow NetcashgeneratedfromInvestingProceedsfrom i anceofshares ProceesfromplacementofsharesFigure3:ForecastCashFlow NetcashgeneratedfromInvestingProceedsfrom i anceofshares Proceesfromplacementofshares Proceeds of CB i anceProceedsofp NetborrowingsRepurchase of CB Incr

59、ease in cash and cash equivalentsCashandcashequivalentsatbeginningofyear Exchangelossesoncashandcashequivalents Cash and cash equivalents at end of the yearSource: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用RMB The views his report accura y reflect al views of yst. yst t neither he/she

60、nor his/her asso servesas anofficerofnorhasanyfinan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthelistedcorporationsoranythirdpartyhasprovided oragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnection withthisreporttoanyofyst,the orthegroupcompany(ies). Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompa