娛樂、媒體和科技趨勢報告

1、FTI 2020TREND REPORTFORENTERTAINMENT,MEDIA &TECHNOLOGY3RD ANNUAL EDITIONWe invite you to use, share and build upon the material in our 12th annual Future Today Institute Tech Trends Report. We are making it freely available to the public. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No

2、nCom- mercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Interna- tional License.YOU ARE FREE TO:SHARECopy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, including in your organizations and classrooms.ADAPTRemix, transform, and build upon the material for your own research, work and teaching.UNDER THE FOLLOWING TERMS:A

3、TTRIBUTIONYou must give appropriate credit to the Future Today Institute, provide a link to this Creative Commons license, and indicate if any changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that sug- gests that the Future Today Institute endorses you or your use.NONCOM

4、MERCIALYou may not, under any circumstance, use the material for commercial pur- poses.SHAREALIKEIf you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as you see here.YOU ARE PROHIBITED FROM:COMMERCIAL SHARINGDont copy and redistribute thi

5、s material in any medium or format for commercial purposes, including any personal/ corporate marketing and client services.REPRESENTING THIS WORK AS YOUR OWNDo not represent any part of this ma- terial as your own without giving credit to the Future Today Institute.ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONSYou may no

6、t apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything this license permits.USING AND SHARING THE MATERIAL IN THIS REPORT2 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEThe Future Today Institute releases two large reports every year. In the spring, we publish our annual FT

7、I Emerging Tech Trends Report, which is a comprehensive analysis of more than 26 different industry segments and has been in continual publication since 2007. In the fall, we publish our annual Entertainment, Media and Technology Trends report (EMT Trends for shot), which offers deep analysis in a m

8、ore narrow field. This is the EMT report.3 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEFuturists spend just as much time looking back as we do forward, and as I write this annual letter from my office in New York City Im reminded of where I was on this day twenty years ago. I was living in Japan back then, surr

9、ounded by early smartphones, Tamagotchi virtual pets and Palm Pilots. On my MiniDisc player I was undoubtedly listening to a mix-disc with songs from The Matrix soundtrack. I vividly remember debates at work about whether or not the world as we knew it was about to end because of Y2K and a wonky com

10、puter glitch.Those working in entertainment, media and technology grappled with intense uncertain- ties beyond that Y2K bug:MySpace and Napster both went live, and they signaled a radical change in distribution. What happened when people shared movies, songs, games and news content with their peers

11、rather than buying from a store?Google and Yahoo! had just launched, and unlike America Online, Compuserve and Net- scape these new platforms were freely available to everyone from their inception and without needing to download software. Easier access could bring hundreds of millions of people to t

12、he internet. What would become of human editors and producers when plat- forms made content decisions algorithmically?Impeachment proceedings had been brought against President Bill Clinton, which foisted CNN, Fox and MSNBC into positions of tremendous influence. With lots of time to fill, the netwo

13、rks brought on board in-house pundits and commentators and engaged them in shoutfests. What about the after effects on public trust of media?It was a time of record layoffs. Companies cut hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S., due to a bunch of factors: an economic crisis in Asia, a downturn in

14、oil prices, a weaken- ing manufacturing sector, and increased merger and acquisition activity. News organi- zations were headed into a downward slump. How would the internet and early smart- phones impact the business of news?At the turn of the last century, we were still trying to make sense of the

15、 Columbine High School massacre. How could something like this happen in America? How would we change gun laws to prevent something like this from happening again? How would news organizations deal with the ethics of reporting, publishing and airing this kind of story?Twenty years later, your organi

16、zations are still facing many deep uncertainties connected to those questions we asked before:Social networks have permanently shifted the distribution of content and have ushered in an age of algorithmic determinism. How will you convince GenZ, Millennials and Gen X to pay for content?Will streamin

17、g platforms survive all of these new planned subscription models? Or will this lead to even more consolidation?Youre still figuring out your mobile strategy, even as all the data prove that weve entered a new post-smartphone era. Will your company be fast and nimble enough to change strategy again b

18、efore youre disrupted out of the market?Youre uncertain about the difference between Twitch and Mixer and what compelled Ninja to switch streaming platforms. (Perhaps now youre also wondering what, exactly, Twitch and Mixer are and what that has to do with ninjas.) How does your content, your produc

19、ts, and your services fit in to this new world?You dont know when 5G will roll out everywhere, and youre questioning the business cases and infrastructure models for 5G. Related: is e-sports really a thing?And youre undoubtedly thinking about all the domestic and international events on the horizon.

20、 How will the trade wars, Brexit outcomes, U.S. presidential election, North Koreas missile testing, the 2020 Olympics, climate change and our race to the Moon and Mars impact our business, our industry, and our way of life?You must get into a habit of confronting uncertainty while thinking about th

21、e past and future simultaneously. At the end of The Matrix, Neo told us “I dont know the future. I didnt come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how its going to begin.”Were always at the beginning of an evolution. You and your teams can reduce uncertainty using data-

22、driven signals, trends and scenarios. Make connections between the end of 1990s and today and then connect today to your preferred tomorrows.Sincerely,Amy WebbFounder, The Future Today InstituteWriting from my New York o ce on August 2, 20194 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEANNUAL LETTERKEY TAKEAWAY

23、SSynthetic media offers new opportu- nities and challenges. Japanese pop star Hatsune Miku, American influencer Lil Miquela and Chinese news anchor Xin Xiaomeng are synthetic media. They were generated using large databases and specially-trained algorithms, and they represent a new world of synthe-

24、sized content. Synthetic media can be modulated and responsive to our tastes and preferences. But we dont have eth- ical guidelines on how to use synthetic media. There is no obligation to inform consumers that something (a person, pet, place or object) has been algorith- mically generated.Authentic

25、ating content is becoming more difficult. Deepfakes videos created using AI that can make it look like someone said or did something they have never done are spreading faster than anyone anticipated. The problem isthat faked videos are only the beginning. While were fixated on deepfake videos, espec

26、ially ahead of the 2020 US elec- tions, there are many more “deep x” applications casting an ominous shadow on the horizon. Researchers are already able to replicate and modulate voices, mimic body movements and gestures, and anticipate and generate reactive behaviors.Regulation is coming. Apple, Am

27、azon, Google and Facebook are under investi- gation by the Federal Trade Commission, Department of Justice and Congress.Outside of the U.S., big tech companies are under immense scrutiny. The E.U.s data protection standards have become the de facto global standards and big tech companies have been a

28、ccused of running afoul of the rules. Germanys domestic anti-trust authority is investi- gating big tech companies, while France and Britan are pushing for a digital tax. Platform regulation and taxation willimpact the distribution of content, and there are likely to be reverberating im- pacts on ho

29、w every organization collects and uses consumer data.Weve entered the post-fixed screen era. By the summer of 2019, Apple disclosed a slump in iPhone revenue it was down 12% year over year. Samsung reported the same. Part of the reason is price: consumers just arent willing to drop $1,000 or more on

30、 a mobile phone. However there are other forces in play: smart wearables, smart speakers, and home automation devices. In the next few years, consumers wont rely on the single, fixed screens of their mobile devices, but will instead transition to a diverse, multi-interface ecosystem.VSO is the new S

31、EO. In developed mar- kets, half of the interactions consumers have with computers will be using voice by the end of 2020. This isnt just about talking to a smart speaker: voice inter- faces are now everywhere, from smart speakers to home appliances to kiosks. Consumers should expect to talk more of

32、ten than they type. This impacts every entertainment, media and technology company, and as a result, there will be a new emphasis on voice search optimi- zation (VSO). This means opportunity: theres an entire VSO ecosystem waiting to be born, and first movers are likely to reap huge windfalls. But i

33、t also signals disruption to those working on the busi- ness side of search.Digital subscription models arent working. Staff of the Los Angeles Times were furious when they received an un- expected message from the companys executive editor. The business side of the company had planned to double its

34、 digital subscriptions to 300,000 in just one year but because of cancellations and missed targets, the LAT only saw a net increase of 13,000 digital subscrip- tions. The New York Times and Wash- ington Post may have had a few banner quarters, but theres about to be stiff competition in the subscrip

35、tions space. Consumers who want to get news, listen to music, play games and watch their favorite shows and movies are goingto have to pay a la carte, which means spending way more for content (unlike- ly) or prioritizing for a budget. Theyll have a lot to choose from: PlayStation Now, Spotify, Netf

36、lix, Audible, CBS All Access, Google Stadia, Jump, Shadow, A, Hulu, Apple, Playkey and the upcoming streaming services from Walt Disney, Comcast NBCUniversal and AT&Ts WarnerMedia division. And thats just in the United States.Advancements in AI will mean great- er efficiencies. In the past year ther

37、e were many important advancements throughout the subfields of artificial intelligence. Whats on the horizon arenew tools and systems to build live maps, facilitate real-time fact checking, and aid in reporting, writing, photo and video editing, administrative tasks and pro- duction. Likewise, advan

38、cements in AI will soon bring down costs of rendering and storage.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEThis is the third annual edition of FTIs Entertainment, Media and Technology Trends Report. It follows the same approach as our popular FTI Annual Trend Report, now in its 12th year.C

39、ombined, these reports have garnered more than 8 million cumulative views.Make observations and harness information from the fringes of society or a particular research area.Uncover hidden patterns by categorizing information from the fringe: contradictions, infections, practices, hacks, extremes, r

40、arities.Ask the right questions to determine whether a pattern is really a trend.Calculate the velocity and trajectory of change.Scenarios inform the strategy you will create to take the necessary action on a trend.Mitigate deep uncertainty and future risk by reverse-engineering your organizations d

41、esired outcomes.6 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEThe Future Today Institute Forecasting Methodologys Six-Step Funnel01Listen for weak signals at the fringe02Use CIPHER to see patterns03Identify trends04Determine trajectory05Write scenarios06Backcast preferred outcomesMETHODOLOGYThe Future Today Ins

42、titutes forecasting model uses quanti- tative and qualitative data to identify weak signals and map their trajectories into tech trends. Our six steps alternate between broad and narrow scopes, which include: identify- ing weak signals at the fringe, spotting patterns, developing trend candidates, c

43、alculating a trends velocity, creating sce- narios and finally backcasting preferred outcomes.TACTICALVISIONSTRATEGIC PLANNINGSYSTEMS-LEVEL DISRUPTION AND EVOLUTIONMore data, evidence and certaintyMore uncertainty12 - 24 months2 - 5 years5 - 10 years10+ yearsFor any given uncertainty about the futur

44、ewhether thats risk, opportunity or growthits best to think in the short and long-term simultaneously. To do this, the Future Today Institute uses a framework that measures certain- ty and charts actions, rather than simply marking the passage of time as quarters or years. Thats why our timelines ar

45、ent actually lines at allthey are cones.For every foresight project, we build a cone with four distinct categories:TacticsStrategyVisionSystems-level evolution7 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTEUSE TIME CONES, NOT LINESUSE TIME CONES, NOT LINES CONT.We start by defining the cones edge using highly pr

46、obable events for which there is already data or evidence. The amount of time varies for every proj- ect, organization and industry, but typically 12-24 months is a good place to start. Because we can identify trends and probable events (both within a company and external to it), the kind of plannin

47、g that can be done is tacti- cal in nature, and the corresponding actions could include things like rede- signing products or identifying and targeting a new customer segment.Tactical decisions must fit in to an organizations strategy. At this point in the cone, we are a little less certain of outco

48、mes, because were looking at the next 24 months to five years. This area is whats already most familiar to strategy officers and their teams: were describing traditional strategy ad the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining pri- orities, setting resource allocation, maki

49、ng any personnel changes needed and the like.Lots of organizations get stuck cycling between strategy and tactics, and this is especially true in media and entertainment. While that process might feel like serious planning for the future, it results in a perpetual cycle of trying to catch up: to com

50、petitors, to new entrants, and to external sources of disruption.This is why you must be willing to accept more uncertainty as you continu- ally recalibrate your organizations vision for the future.8 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTETABLE OF CONTENTS002Using and Sharing The Material In The ReportAnnu

51、al LetterExecutive SummaryMethodologyUse Time Cones, Not LinesWhere Trends Come FromFuture Forces Theory: The Ten Macro Sources of ChangeAsk Better Questions About TrendsWhen to Take ActionUsing Trends To Support Your Tactical Actions, Strategy and VisionHow To Use Our ReportForesight Framework: The

52、 Axes of Uncertainty022 Artificial Intelligence030Proliferation of Franken-algorithms030Proprietary, Open and Homegrown AI LanguagesProblematic Data SetsMarketplace ConsolidationDeep LinkingAI in the Cloud032Serverless Computing032AI ChipsetsMarketplaces For AI Algorithms 033Ubiquitous Digital Assis

53、tants 033Generating Virtual EnvironmentsFrom Short VideosMachines Performing Cognitive WorkRobotic Process Automation034BotsI-Teams For Algorithms and DataMaking AI Explain ItselfReal-Time Machine LearningNatural Language Understanding (NLU)Machine Reading Comprehension (MRC)037Natural Language Gene

54、ration (NLG)Real-Time Context in Machine LearningGeneral Reinforcement Learning Algorithms038Much Faster Deep Learning038Reinforcement Learning and Hierarchical RL038Continuous LearningMultitask LearningGenerative Adversarial Networks (GANs)039Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)Customized Machine Le

55、arning 040AI Used to Catch Cheating 040Algorithms That TargetVulnerable PopulationsOngoing Bias In AIAI Bias Causes Civil UnrestComputational JournalismComputational Image Completion and GenerationAutomated Versioning044Natural Language Generation to Modulate Reading Levels044Datamining CrowdsAlgori

56、thmic Fact Checking 045On-Screen Fact Checking 045Synthetic DataSynthetic and Generated Content AuthenticationRecognition SystemsFaceprintsVoiceprints049Gesture Recognition049Personality RecognitionEmotional RecognitionAffective Computing050Bone Recognition050Genetic RecognitionUniversal Genetic Dat

57、abasesScoring053Behavioral Biometrics053in Scoring Systems053Piecemeal Norms, Standards and RegulationsIntentionally Opaque TrackingIn-Home Tracking054Scoring Vulnerable Populations 054Surveillance Scoring as a Service 055Synthetic MediaSpeech SynthesisModulating Custom Voices059Voice Fraud059Machin

58、e Image Completion059Deep Behaviors and Predictive Machine VisionGenerative Algorithms For Voice, Sound and VideoSynthetic Influencers060Synthetic EnvironmentsInterfacesOptimizing For Voice Search065Next-Gen Native Video and Audio Story FormatsHuman-Machine InterfacesExtended RealityHolograms360-deg

59、ree VideoAugmented RealityAR Face Filters to Protect Individuals identity071AR as a Tool to Enhance Print073Virtual RealityVideoStreamersSaturation of OTTStreaming ServicesConnected TVs078WebRTC078Streaming Social Video 079Games and eSports 080eSportsMixed Reality ArcadesMMOMRGs087Business of Media

60、& Distribution 088Platforms Forced To Pick Sides 090Restrictions on Bulk Messaging 091New Interest in AmericasLocal News Outlets9 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTETABLE OF CONTENTS092The Subscription Economy Matures094Offline Connections 095Journalism as a Service 096Pop-Up Newsrooms andLimited-Editi