01-TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講 作業(yè)

01-TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講作業(yè)01-TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講作業(yè)01-TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講作業(yè)01-TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講作業(yè)編制僅供參考審核批準(zhǔn)生效日期地址：電話(huà)：傳真:郵編:GOLDRATTSATELLITEPROGRAM高瑞特衛(wèi)星節(jié)目SESSIONONE第一講OPERATIONS作業(yè)Hi!SystemApproach.嗨！系統(tǒng)方式。Thereisabroadconsensusthatifwewanttoimprovetheperformanceofourcompanywehavetotakeasystemapproach,holisticapproach.廣泛的共識(shí)是，如果我們想要改善公司的績(jī)效，我們必須采用系統(tǒng)方式。Weallagreeaboutthattheonlyquestionishowdoyoudoit.我們都同意，唯一的問(wèn)題在于你如何去做。Well,let’stry.讓我們來(lái)試試。Firstthingis,it’sobviousthatwecannotlookonjustonefunctioninisolationoronjustissueinisolation.首先，很顯然的，我們不能將每一個(gè)功能或問(wèn)題個(gè)別分開(kāi)來(lái)看。Soforexample,ifyouwanttotakeasystemapproachtoanorganizationyouhavetostartwithabroadbase.舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，如果你要以系統(tǒng)方式來(lái)解決一個(gè)組織問(wèn)題，你必須從全面的角度來(lái)看。Likeforexample,totakeintoconsiderationlogisticsandthemarketsandfinancialconcernsanddonotforgetthatanyorganizationiscomposedoutofpeople–youmusttakeintoaccountpeoplerelationshipsaswell.譬如說(shuō)，當(dāng)考慮運(yùn)籌、市場(chǎng)與財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題時(shí)，別忘了每一個(gè)公司都是由人所組成，你也必須將人際關(guān)系考慮進(jìn)去。Sofarsogood.到目前為止一切還好。Butthenwhatdoyoudo但是，接下來(lái)你怎么做呢Inordertodemonstrateit,Iwanttotakeanexample.為了要示范，我來(lái)舉一個(gè)例子。Now,asalwayswhenyouaretakingexamplesthereisafearoftakingatoosmallexampleandthentheconclusionsaretoobroadexampleandthenit’slikeyouhaven’ttakenanexampleatall.通常當(dāng)我們舉例時(shí)，總擔(dān)心所舉的例子太小而結(jié)論卻不具體，或例子太廣泛，結(jié)果就好像沒(méi)有一樣。SowhatIwilldo,Iwilltakeasanexampletheentiresteelindustryintheworld.因此我要以全世界的鋼鐵業(yè)為例。Systemapproach.系統(tǒng)方式。Whatdidwesay我們說(shuō)了什么呢We’lltakeforexampleoneaspectoflogistic-whatwillitbeinthesteelindustry我們將舉一個(gè)運(yùn)籌方面的例子─它在鋼鐵業(yè)會(huì)是什么樣子呢Somethingreallybotheringpeopleabouttheexistinglogistics.對(duì)運(yùn)籌而言，有些事真讓人心煩。Itwillbesomethinglike‘finishedgoodsinventoriesaremuchtoohighinthatindustry.’例如，“在鋼鐵業(yè)里，成品庫(kù)存太高了”之類(lèi)的事。Well,letmetellyoualittlebitaboutitsoyouunderstandthatwhensteelindustryistalkingaboutproblemsoftoomuchfinishedgoodsinventory,it’sevenworsethanwhathappensinyourindustry.嗯，讓我來(lái)告訴你，鋼鐵業(yè)成品庫(kù)存太高的問(wèn)題，比你所在之產(chǎn)業(yè)還要嚴(yán)重的多。Asyousee,amid-rangesteelmillhasaboutquarterofamilliontonsoffinishedsteelontheiryard.如你所知，一個(gè)中級(jí)規(guī)模的鋼鐵廠在它們的倉(cāng)庫(kù)里約有二十五萬(wàn)噸成品。Thisishuge.這是個(gè)很大的數(shù)量。Whydoesitbotherthemsomuch這為什么造成他們這么多的困擾呢Justletmeremindyouthatsteel,notlikewine,isnotimprovingwithtime.讓我提醒你們，鋼并不像酒一樣會(huì)越陳越香。Asamatteroffactwhenyouaretalkingtothemtheyconfessthattheydonotknowwhattheyproducemore–steelorrust.事實(shí)上當(dāng)你和他們談起時(shí)，他們承認(rèn)，他們不知道生產(chǎn)比較多的是鋼還是鐵銹。Thisisthemagnitudeoftheproblem-it’shuge.這是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。Thenwesaid,weshouldn’ttakejustlogisticproblemanddealwithitinisolation,wehavetolookonotherissuesatthesametimeinordertohavethesystemapproach.所以，我們不應(yīng)只考慮到運(yùn)籌而且把它單獨(dú)分開(kāi)來(lái)處理，我們必須同時(shí)看待其它的問(wèn)題以便采取系統(tǒng)方式。Whatwastheotherthing其它的問(wèn)題是什么呢Themarket,nowwhatyoulookonthemarket,somethingbad.是市場(chǎng)，現(xiàn)在你所看的市場(chǎng)，情況很糟。Well,inthesteelindustryit’sveryeasytoseewhatisbad,becausethat’swhatyouaregettingthroughthephonesalltimeandthisiscustomercomplaints.嗯，在鋼鐵業(yè)你很容易發(fā)現(xiàn)什么是糟糕的，就是你常在電話(huà)中所接到的顧客抱怨。Notlikeinotherindustriesthereissomethinglittlebitspecialaboutthesteelindustry,whichis-over95%ofthecomplaintsisaboutonesingleissue,andtherearefuriouscomplaints.不像別的工業(yè)，鋼鐵業(yè)有一點(diǎn)不同，超過(guò)95％的抱怨是同一個(gè)問(wèn)題，而且這些抱怨是激烈的。Andtheissueis‘youpromisedtodeliverandyoudidn’tdeliverontime.’問(wèn)題就是“你答應(yīng)要交貨，卻沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨”。Firstofallyoucanaskyourselfwhatdoyoumean‘promisedtodeliver’iftheyhavesomuchfinishedgoodsinventories.首先你可能會(huì)問(wèn)你自己，既然成品庫(kù)存有這么多，你說(shuō)“答應(yīng)要交貨”到底是什么意思。Howcomethattheydidn’tdeliveritimmediately.為什么他們沒(méi)有立刻把貨運(yùn)送出去呢Well,asithappens,whenyoucometoordersomethingfromthesteelmill,yesthedohaveaquarterofmilliontonsofsteelontheirfields,butnotwhatyouareaskingfor.嗯，情形是這樣的，當(dāng)你向鋼鐵工廠訂購(gòu)一些東西時(shí)，他們的確有近二十五萬(wàn)噸的鋼鐵在他們的倉(cāng)庫(kù)里，但不是你要的那種。SoifyouwillgotoaKoreansteelmilltheywilltellyou,forexampleifyouareaskingforsteelplates,theywilltellyou6weeks.比方說(shuō)，如果你跑到一家韓國(guó)鋼鐵工廠要買(mǎi)鋼板，他們會(huì)告訴你要六個(gè)星期。IfyougotoEuropeansteelmilltheywilltellyou6weeks.如果你跑到歐洲鋼鐵工廠，他們也會(huì)告訴你要六個(gè)星期。IfyougototheUSsteelmilltheywilltellyou6weeks.如果你跑到美國(guó)鋼鐵廠，他們還是會(huì)告訴你要六個(gè)星期。It’slikenumberthatcametoMosesonmountSinai.這就好像摩西在西奈山所得到的數(shù)目。Sonowyoudonothaveachoice,youhavetowait6weeks,fine.因此你沒(méi)有選擇，你必須等六個(gè)星期，好吧！Andthenitturnsoutthattheirduedateperformanceis60%.Inotherwords,in60%ofthecasestheywilldeliverbeforeorat6weeks.結(jié)果他們交期績(jī)效是60％。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，60％的情況，他們會(huì)在六個(gè)星期內(nèi)或更早交貨。Intheremaining40%theywilldeliver–eventually.剩下40％，他們遲早會(huì)交貨。Andeventuallycanbeaslongas15weeks.最后可能拖到15個(gè)星期。Nowwhyisitsuchaproblemthere那么，為什么會(huì)有這樣的問(wèn)題呢It’sduetothenatureoftheclientsofthesteelmills.這要追究于鋼鐵工廠客戶(hù)的性質(zhì)。Supposethatyouareaclientofthesteelmill,abigclient.假設(shè)你是這家鋼鐵工廠的客戶(hù)，大客戶(hù)。Supposethatyouaredoingsteelbridges.而你是造鋼鐵橋的。Inordertodoonesteelbridgeyouareusingletssaysomethinglikeover200differenttypesofplates.為了造一座鋼鐵橋你得用到兩百種不同的鋼板。Nowwhatarethefacts事實(shí)上呢Thechanceofgettingonetypeofplateontimeisabout60%,.準(zhǔn)時(shí)得到一種鋼板的機(jī)率是大約60％，。Ifthatisthecase,whatisthechanceofgettingtwoplatesofsteelatthesametime如果是這樣，那么同時(shí)準(zhǔn)時(shí)得到兩種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢timeinotherwordsabout36%.乘以，換句話(huà)說(shuō)，大概是36％。Whatisthechanceofgetting4platesontime同時(shí)準(zhǔn)時(shí)得到四種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢It’stime-oh,oh-it’s10%now.它是乘以，嗯─這次大概是10％。What’sthechanceofgetting8platesontime1%.準(zhǔn)時(shí)得到八種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢1％。What’sthechanceofgetting200platesontime準(zhǔn)時(shí)得到兩百種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢Lessthanthechanceofwinningthelottery.比贏得樂(lè)透彩券還小。Butifoneplateismissingyoucannotdeliverthebridgetoyourclient.但如果缺了一片鋼板，你就無(wú)法將橋完成交給你的客戶(hù)了。Youcanimaginewhatfuriouscomplaintswearetalkingabout,unbelievable.你可以想象我們所說(shuō)的憤怒抱怨了，難以相信。Fine.很好。Sowearelookingonthemarket.所以我們看了市場(chǎng)問(wèn)題。Wearelookingonlogistics.我們看了運(yùn)籌。Whatelse–finance.還有什么別的─財(cái)務(wù)。Whatisthebiggestprobleminthesteelmill鋼鐵工廠最大的問(wèn)題是什么呢Thebiggestproblemisverylongpaybackperiodsofinvestments.最大的問(wèn)題是投資的回收期非常長(zhǎng)。WhatamItalkingabout我所指的是什么呢Youknowthatwhenyouwanttobuyanewpieceofequipmentandyoubelongtoacorporate,youhavetofilloutanappropriationrequestforthispieceofequipmentwhereyouhavetojustifywhyyouwanttobuyit.你知道當(dāng)你在一家大公司要買(mǎi)一臺(tái)新設(shè)備，你要填寫(xiě)申請(qǐng)表，來(lái)評(píng)估為什么要買(mǎi)它。Andthejustificationisfinancial.這個(gè)評(píng)估就是財(cái)務(wù)。Andbasicallyyouhavetojustifythatduetothisnewpieceequipmentwithinsomeperiodoftimeyouwillcoverthewholeinvestment.基本上你必須評(píng)估這一新設(shè)備，在多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)就可以回收所有的投資。Nowinmostindustries,worldwidethereisamagicnumbertodaywhichis2years.在大多數(shù)工業(yè)，舉世皆然地存在一個(gè)神奇數(shù)字，那就是兩年。Whichmeansifyourappropriationrequestshowsthatitwilltaketoreturntheinvestmentin2andahalfyearsmostprobablythecorporatewillsenditbacktoyouandnotapproveit.這意謂著，如果你的申請(qǐng)顯示你將在兩年半內(nèi)回收，很有可能公司會(huì)把它退回給你而不批準(zhǔn)。Sothenyouwillhavetotakeitbacktofudgethenumbers,toshowthatit’sbelowtwoyears,submititagain.因此你必須回去捏造數(shù)據(jù)，湊出它是小于兩年，然后再呈核一次。Weallknowthesenumbergames.我們對(duì)這些數(shù)字游戲都很清楚。Well,inthesteelmillstheyapproveevenwhentheyappropriationrequestisupto7years.嗯，在鋼鐵廠即使申請(qǐng)回收年限高達(dá)七年他們也會(huì)批準(zhǔn)。Theydon’tlikeitonebit,buttheyknowthatiftheyputthisrestrictionof2yearsmaximumtheycannotbuyanynewequipmentandtheyknowthattheymustmovewiththetechnology.他們一點(diǎn)也不喜歡這樣，但他們知道如果設(shè)下了兩年之限制，將會(huì)無(wú)法買(mǎi)到任何新設(shè)備，而他們必須跟隨著技術(shù)。Thisisahugeproblem.這是一個(gè)大問(wèn)題。Whatabouthumanrelationships人際關(guān)系呢Oh,overtherearenolackofproblems.哦，永遠(yuǎn)都有問(wèn)題。Youseeinaregularsteelmilltheinternalpoliticsismuch,muchworsethanWashington.你知道在一個(gè)正常的鋼鐵廠內(nèi)部的政治問(wèn)題比在華盛頓那里還要更糟。Inmoststeelmillsyouwillfindoutthatthereisaminimumthreedifferentchaptersoftheunions.在多數(shù)鋼鐵廠中你至少可以找到三個(gè)不同的工會(huì)聯(lián)盟。Andtheyarefightingwitheachotherevenmorethantheyarefightingwithmanagement.他們彼此間的爭(zhēng)斗比他們和管理階層之間的爭(zhēng)斗還要更嚴(yán)重。Itiscraziness.真是瘋狂。Fine,soherewedefinedwhatarethethingsthatwewanttolookon.好吧，我們已經(jīng)界定我們所要看的對(duì)象了。Whatdowedonow現(xiàn)在該怎么做呢Howdowenowcontinueaccordingtothesystemapproach我們依照系統(tǒng)方式該怎么繼續(xù)呢Wedon’tknow.我們不知道。Sowhatdowedo那我們?cè)撟鍪裁茨豔edowhatthesteelindustryisdoing,whichistodealwitheachoneoftheseitemsinisolation.我們做鋼鐵業(yè)所做的事，就是分開(kāi)單獨(dú)處理每一件事。Forexample,howdotheytrytorectifythesituationofthetoomuchfinishedgoodsinventories例如說(shuō)，怎么解決成品庫(kù)存過(guò)多呢Theyputanewcomputersystem,andifitdoesnotwork,theyputthenewercomputersystem.Andifthisdoesnotwork,theyputthenewestcomputersystem.他們裝了一套新計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，如果不行，再裝一套更新的計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，再不行，再裝最新的計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，ERP。ERPtodaywiththeeffortstoimplementitisminimum10milliondollars.今天的ERP包括導(dǎo)入至少要花一千萬(wàn)美元。Theystilldoitbecausethemagnitudeoftheproblemishuge.但由于問(wèn)題很大，他們?nèi)匀徽兆隽?。Whataboutcustomercomplaints那顧客的抱怨怎么辦呢Fine,weknowwhattodowithit.好，我們知道怎么處理它。Wehireaconsultingcompanythatwillgoanddoasurveyamongtheclientsandsubmittheirrecommendationofhowtorearrangethecustomerservicedepartment.我們請(qǐng)顧問(wèn)公司去作客戶(hù)調(diào)查，并提出有關(guān)如何重整顧客服務(wù)部門(mén)之建議書(shū)。Andthenextone.下一個(gè)。Longpaybackperiods,thatisafinancialproblem,wewillhavetodealwithitwithfinancialmethods.漫長(zhǎng)的投資回收期，那是一項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題，我們必需用財(cái)務(wù)的手段來(lái)解決它。Andwhattheyaredoingismerging,downsizing,therewholecountriesthathavelosttheirentiresteelmillindustryduetothat.他們采取并購(gòu)、縮編，整個(gè)國(guó)家因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因已失去全部鋼鐵業(yè)。Thatisthesizeoftheproblem.那是大問(wèn)題。Whatabouthumanproblems那人的問(wèn)題怎么辦呢Thatislife.那是人生。Sowewilltrytohiresomeorganizationalpsychologists,andifthisdoesnothelp,Iknownowtheyarenowlookingfororganizationalpsychiatrists.所以我們嘗試雇用一些組織心理學(xué)家，如果他們幫不上忙，我們會(huì)再找組織精神科醫(yī)生。Nobodycameforwardyet.目前還沒(méi)找到。Butlookwhatisreallyhappening.但是看看實(shí)際發(fā)生的事。Fine,weunderstandsystemapproach.好了，我們了解系統(tǒng)方式了。Weunderstandthatinordertodoitwehavetostartnotwithoneissueoronefunction,butwithbroadscope.我們了解為了要做，我們不能只從一個(gè)問(wèn)題或一項(xiàng)功能開(kāi)始，而必須是全面性的。Andthen,andthenwedon’tknowwhattodo,sowearedivertingbacktoeachissueinisolation.然后我們不知道要做什么，所以我們又回頭單獨(dú)去看每一個(gè)問(wèn)題。Ithinkthatweshouldn’tgiveup.我想我們不應(yīng)該放棄。Ithinkthatweshouldsticktotheintuitionthatbroughtustorealizethatwemustusethesystemapproach.我想我們應(yīng)堅(jiān)持直覺(jué)，它讓我們了解到必須使用系統(tǒng)方式Whydoweclaimthatwemustusethesystemapproach為甚么我們必須要采用系統(tǒng)方式呢Becauseintuitivelyweareawarethatifyoudosomethinginonefunction,itdoeshaveramificationsontheotherfunctions.因?yàn)槲覀冎庇X(jué)地了解到，如果你在某一功能做某些事，它的確會(huì)衍生到其它功能上。Andsomethingthatmightlookgoodlocally,mighthaveverynegativeramificationselsewhere.有些局部看來(lái)好的事情，可能在別的地方造成負(fù)面的枝節(jié)。Whichmeansweareawareofthefactthattherearecauseeffectrelationships,whicharecrossingbetweenfunctions,thatthecauseinonedepartmentcancauseeffectsinanotherdepartment.這意謂著我們了解到在功能之間有因果關(guān)系存在，一個(gè)部門(mén)的因會(huì)造成其它部門(mén)的果。Ifthatisthecase,whywon’twetrytobuildthecause-effectrelationshipbeforewehavedecidedwhatshouldwedo.Isitsodifficult如果是這種情形，為什么我們不試著在要決定該怎么做之前先去建構(gòu)因果關(guān)系。這很困難嗎Well,letmeshowyou-itisveryeasy.嗯，讓我來(lái)說(shuō)明給你看，很容易的。Morethanthatletmeshowyouthatsuchacauseandeffectdiagram,Icallita‘tree’,a‘logicaltree’,istotallyobvioustous,eventhoughwemightnotbeinthisspecificorganization,stillthecauseandeffectrelationshipsaretotallygeneric.讓你看看這因果關(guān)系圖，我叫它作“樹(shù)”，“邏輯樹(shù)”，即使我們不在這個(gè)組織里，對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)其因果關(guān)系是完全一般化的。Letmeshowyouanexampleofit.讓我給你看一個(gè)例子。Sinceyouarenotgoingtobeabletoreaditfromthescreen,openyourbooksit’sonpagenumber4.由于你無(wú)法從銀幕上看到它，請(qǐng)打開(kāi)你書(shū)本的第四頁(yè)。Andletmereadit.讓我讀給你聽(tīng)。Iwillreaditfromthecausetotheeffect.我將從原因讀到結(jié)果。InotherwordsIwillreaditalongthedirectionofthearrows.換句話(huà)說(shuō)，我將按照箭頭來(lái)讀。Ofcourse,Iwillstartatthebottom,Iwillstartatthestatementnumber500.當(dāng)然啦，我會(huì)從底下開(kāi)始，我會(huì)從第500的句子開(kāi)始。Now,thenumberitselfdoesnothaveanymeaning,exceptforwhenIamsayingstatementnumber500youknowwhichstatementIamabouttoread.這里的數(shù)字本身并沒(méi)有什么意義，只是讓你知道當(dāng)我說(shuō)到第500號(hào)的句子時(shí)，你曉得我將要念那里。Forthoseofyouwhomitdidn’thelpitisatthebottomleft.如這還是不清楚，它就在左下方。Statement500-‘foralongtimetonsperhourhasbeentheprimeoperationalmeasurementinthesteelindustry’.第500號(hào)句子，“長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)，噸/小時(shí)是鋼鐵業(yè)的主要生產(chǎn)績(jī)效評(píng)估”。Thatisthefactaboutthatindustry.那就是鋼鐵業(yè)的事實(shí)。Butletmeexplaintoyouthisfact.讓我為你解釋這事實(shí)。Whatiswrittenhereisdescribingtherealitythatineverysteelmillindustryforthelast100yearstheprimemeasurementwastonperhour.這里所寫(xiě)的是，過(guò)去一百年來(lái)，鋼鐵業(yè)是以噸/小時(shí)作為主要的績(jī)效評(píng)估。Everyworkcenter,everydepartment,everyplantismeasured-howmanytonsperhourhaveyouproducedlastshift,lastday,lastweek,lastmonth,lastquarter,lastyear.每一個(gè)工作中心，每一個(gè)部門(mén)，每一個(gè)工廠都用相同方法評(píng)估─上一班，昨天，上星期，上個(gè)月，上一季，去年，你每小時(shí)生產(chǎn)了多少?lài)?。Andthatistheprimemeasurement.這就是主要的評(píng)估。WhatImeanbythat我的意思是什么Yes,therearemanyothermeasurements.是的，還有很多別的評(píng)估方式。Butifyoumetyourquartertonperhouryoucangetawaywithamurder,youdidn’tmeetit–nothingelsematters.但是，如果你達(dá)成你的季噸/小時(shí)，縱使犯了大錯(cuò)也沒(méi)關(guān)系，如果你沒(méi)達(dá)成，那其它的也不重要了。Thatisthemeaningofprimemeasurement.那就是主要評(píng)估的意義。Andthatisafact.而那是一個(gè)事實(shí)。Nowlet’scombineitwithanotherfact.現(xiàn)在，讓我們把它和另一個(gè)事實(shí)相結(jié)合。510.510。Ifyoulookonityouwillseethatnotsurprisingatallsincewearedealingwithorganizationsandorganizationsarebuiltfrompeople,atthebottomofacauseandeffecttreeyouwillalwaysfindsomegenericstatementaboutbehaviorofpeople.如果你看著它，你一點(diǎn)都不會(huì)感到驚訝。因?yàn)槲覀冋谔幚斫M織問(wèn)題，而組織是由人所組成，在因果樹(shù)下面你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)到有關(guān)人類(lèi)行為的一般性描述。Nowsomepeopleclaimthatyoucannotmakeanygenericstatementaboutbehaviorofpeople.有些人宣稱(chēng)你無(wú)法對(duì)人類(lèi)行為作任何一般性的敘述。Idon’tbelieveso.我不認(rèn)為。Andyouwillbethejudge.你來(lái)作裁判。Let’sreadsuchastatementandyouwilltellmewhetherornotyouagree.讓我們讀這一段句子然后你告訴我你是否同意。510reads–‘mostpeoplebehaveinlinewiththewaytheyaremeasured’.第510的句子寫(xiě)道─“多數(shù)人會(huì)依照績(jī)效評(píng)估的方式來(lái)決定他們的行為”。Doyouagree你同意嗎Absolutely.絕對(duì)是。Asamatteroffacttheword‘most’hereisbecausesomeprofessorshavetoldmethattheyfoundaperson5yearsagothat…事實(shí)上這里用“多數(shù)”這個(gè)字是因?yàn)橛行┙淌谠?jīng)告訴我他們五年前發(fā)現(xiàn)有一個(gè)人…Mostmeans99,99-goodenough.多數(shù)的意思就是，夠好的了。Nowlookwhatishappening現(xiàn)在來(lái)看看發(fā)生了什么事Whatisthemeaningofcauseandeffect什么是因和果Iwillrelyonthefactthatyouarehumanbeingsthatyouhavealreadylearnedhowtoliveinasociety.你是人類(lèi)，你知道如何在社會(huì)中生存。Andbecauseofitallthecauseandeffectsgoverningorganization,nomatterwhichone,youknow.因此，因果主宰組織，不管它是哪一個(gè)，你知道的。Andnowtoproveit,whatIwilldois,Iwillusethetraditionalwayinphysics,whichis–ifthatisafactbasedontheknowncauseandeffect,thismustbetheunavoidableresult.我將使用物理學(xué)上的傳統(tǒng)方式來(lái)證明，如果因果關(guān)系是存在的，這必是不可避免的結(jié)果。Inotherwords,Iwilldoaprediction.換句話(huà)說(shuō)，我要做推論。Let’sdosuchaprediction,inotherwordsIwillreadnowthetriangle.讓我們做這樣的推論，換句話(huà)說(shuō)，我現(xiàn)在要讀此三角因果關(guān)系。If500existsand510exists,thenunavoidably515mustexist.如果500存在，510也存在，不可避免的515必會(huì)存在。Let’sreaditandlet’sseewhetherornotyourintuition,yourexperiencewillconfirmthatlogic.我們來(lái)讀它，并看看你的直覺(jué)，經(jīng)驗(yàn)，是否同意這邏輯。Ifweagreethatforalongtimetonperhourhasbeentheprimeoperationalmeasurementinthesteelindustry,andwealsoagreethatmostpeoplebehaveinlinewiththewaytheyaremeasured,thenunavoidablywhatwemustfindinthesteelindustryisthatdepartmentsdotrytomaximizetheirperformanceasmeasuredbytonperhour.如果我們同意長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)噸/小時(shí)是鋼鐵業(yè)的主要生產(chǎn)績(jī)效評(píng)估，同時(shí)我們也同意多數(shù)人們依據(jù)被評(píng)估的方式來(lái)表現(xiàn)，不可避免的我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)鋼鐵業(yè)的生產(chǎn)部門(mén)的確會(huì)設(shè)法提高噸/小時(shí)績(jī)效。Doyouagree你同意嗎Doyouseewhatismeaningofcommonsense你了解常識(shí)的意義嗎Commonsensehasnothingtodowithwhetherornotitiscommon.常識(shí)跟它是否很普通并沒(méi)有關(guān)系。Ithastodowhetherornotthelogicisrigorousandthecauseandeffectrelationshipsareknown.和邏輯是否嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)與因果關(guān)系是否已知有關(guān)。Thatisthemeaningofcommonsense.那就是常識(shí)的意義。Nowlet’sseewhereitwillleadus.讓我們看結(jié)果會(huì)怎樣。Let’sputsomemorefactsaboutthesteelindustry.讓我們?cè)贋殇撹F業(yè)增添一些事實(shí)。Forexample,factnumber520.舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，事實(shí)第520。Whichreads–‘inmostdepartmentsinthesteelindustrysomeitemsrequirelesstimepertonthanothers’.它寫(xiě)著“在鋼鐵業(yè)里多數(shù)部門(mén)有些項(xiàng)目每噸生產(chǎn)的時(shí)間比其它項(xiàng)目少”。WhatImeanbythatisthefollowing,forexample,themoltenwhite,red,hotsteeliscomingfromthefurnace,wewanttomakeplatesoutofit.我的意思如下，熔鋼由高溫爐流出，我們要把它壓制成鋼板。Sowewillstreamlinethismoltensteelintoadepartmentwheretherearehugerollsthataresqueezingthesteelintoaplate.所以我們將熔鋼導(dǎo)入到壓鑄部門(mén)，在那里有巨大的滾輪將熔鋼擠壓成板狀鋼板。Nowimaginethatwewanttodo2inchplate,thenwehavetosqueezethesteeluntilitis2inches.現(xiàn)在假設(shè)我們想要生產(chǎn)2英吋鋼板，我們必須將它擠壓成2英吋。Ontheotherhandwemightwant1inchplate,thenwehavetosqueezeitsomemore.另一方面我們可能想要1英吋鋼板，那么我們必須將它再進(jìn)一步擠壓。IfIammeasuringbytonperhour,whendoIgetmoretonperhourwhenIamproducing2inchplatesorwhenIamproducinghalfaninchplates如果我是被以噸/小時(shí)來(lái)評(píng)估，我要怎么樣才能得到較多的噸/小時(shí)是生產(chǎn)兩英吋鋼板還是生產(chǎn)一英吋鋼板Youdon’thavetobeageniustoanswerthat,right你不是天才也能回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題，對(duì)吧Thisisthesamethingthathappensineverydepartmentandthisisthebasetomystatement,myobservationhereaboutrealitythatinmostdepartmentssomeitemstakemuchlesstimethanothers.每一部門(mén)也都有相同的情形，這是我論點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)，我實(shí)際觀察到的是，大部份的部門(mén)里有些項(xiàng)目生產(chǎn)的時(shí)間比其它項(xiàng)目少。Nowcombineitwithwhatwehaveagreedalready,with515andIclaimthat540isanunavoidableresult.現(xiàn)在，根據(jù)我們所同意的，結(jié)合515號(hào)句子，我認(rèn)為540號(hào)句子為不可避免之結(jié)果。Nowlet’sseewhetherornotyouagreewithme.現(xiàn)在，讓我們看看你是否同意我的說(shuō)法。Ifinmostdepartmentssomeitemsrequirelesstimepertonthanothers,aswesaid,andthefactthatwehaveagreedon-thatdepartmentsdotrytomaximisetheirperformanceasmeasuredbytonsperhour,thentheunavoidableresultmustbethatinthesteelindustrytomaximisetheirperformanceoftonsperhourinagivenmeasurementperiod,departmentstendtoproducethefastitemsattheexpenseoftheslowones.如我們所說(shuō)的，大多數(shù)部門(mén)有些項(xiàng)目每噸所需的時(shí)間比其它項(xiàng)目少，而且，各部門(mén)會(huì)盡可能地去達(dá)成每小時(shí)最大噸數(shù)績(jī)效，那么無(wú)可避免的結(jié)果就是鋼鐵業(yè)為了達(dá)成其每小時(shí)最大噸數(shù)績(jī)效，會(huì)傾向于生產(chǎn)快速的項(xiàng)目而犧牲了較慢之項(xiàng)目。Doyouagree,yesorno你同意嗎對(duì)或不對(duì)Absolutely.當(dāng)然。Now,whathappensnowtoduedateperformance現(xiàn)在，交期績(jī)效會(huì)怎樣呢Whathappensnowtherightpriorities正確的優(yōu)先次序又會(huì)如何呢Let’ssee.讓我們看看。SupposethatyouareaclientthatIlove.假如你是我喜愛(ài)的一個(gè)客戶(hù)。YouarepayingyourbillsbeforeIsendyoutheinvoice,reallyniceclient,suppose.你在我寄發(fā)票給你之前就付清你的賬單，非常好的客戶(hù)。Andyouhaveorderedhalfaninchplate.而你訂購(gòu)了半英吋厚的鋼板。Nowforthesakeofthisprogram,let’ssupposethatyouareaclientthatisnotexactlythebest,ok現(xiàn)在為了這個(gè)課程，讓我們假設(shè)你并不是最好的客戶(hù)，好嗎Ihavetochaseyou5timesuntilyoupaythebill.我必須催你五次你才付賬單。Butyouhaveorderedaplatewhichis2inches.但是你卻訂購(gòu)了兩英吋的鋼板。Whodoyouthinkhasthehigherchancetogetitfirst你猜誰(shuí)有較大的機(jī)會(huì)先得到Neverthelessthatwon’thelp.無(wú)庸置疑。Itisnotbusiness,itisformallookingtomaximizetonperhour.這不是作生意，只是追求最大的噸/小時(shí)。Imightbethispresident,won’thelpme.也許我是此公司的董事長(zhǎng)，也解決不了。Youseetotaldistortioninthepriorities.你看到整個(gè)優(yōu)先級(jí)被扭曲了。Supposethatyouhaveacomputersystemthattellsyou,andyouaretheforeman,‘youmustdohalfaninchplate’.假如你有一套計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)告訴你，而你是領(lǐng)班，“你必須做半英吋厚鋼板”。Andyouknowthatifyouwilldothehalfaninchplate,yourperformanceoftonperhourthisweekwillbehorrible.而你知道如果你做半英吋厚鋼板，你這個(gè)星期的噸/小時(shí)將會(huì)非常糟。Willyoudoit你會(huì)做嗎Youwillfindthousandexcuseswhyitisimpossibleandyouwillstillproductthe2inch.你會(huì)找到一千個(gè)借口為什么不能做，而你仍會(huì)生產(chǎn)兩英吋鋼板。AmIright,yesorno我說(shuō)得對(duì)吧，是不是Thatishumannature.這就是人性。Yousee,duedateperformance,downthedrain,nomatterwhat.你看到了吧，交期績(jī)效已不重要了。Butlet’snotstophere.讓我們繼續(xù)。Let’stakeanotherfactthatexists.讓我們?cè)倥e另一個(gè)存在的事實(shí)。Fact525,bythewaythefactsareeasytofindandtheyarenotusuallyinanycontroversy.第525，順便一提此一事實(shí)很容易找到，而且通常沒(méi)有任何爭(zhēng)議性。Forexample,lookon525,‘non-productionresultsinzerotonsperhour’.Anybodywantstoargueaboutthat舉例說(shuō)，看看525，“沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)就是每小時(shí)零噸”。有沒(méi)有人要對(duì)此提出異議Rememberwhatiswrittenhere,whatiswrittenhereisactually–whenyoudonotproduce,youdonotproduce.記住這里所記載的事實(shí)是─當(dāng)你不生產(chǎn)時(shí)，你就沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)。Whatarevelation!好一個(gè)解釋?zhuān)utwhenIconnectittowhatwehavealreadyagreed-look,whatisunavoidableconclusionthatiscomingout.但是當(dāng)我把它與我們已經(jīng)同意的相連結(jié)，不可避免的結(jié)論是什么When525isconnectedwith515,Iclaimthattheunavoidableresultis545.當(dāng)525號(hào)與515號(hào)相連結(jié)，我認(rèn)為不可避免的結(jié)果是第545號(hào)。Lookonthat,listentothelogic,seewhetherornotyouagree.看著它，聽(tīng)它的邏輯，看你是否會(huì)同意。Ifnon-productionresultsinzerotonsperhourand,aswesaid,departmentstrytomaximizetheirperformanceasmeasuredbytonsperhour,thenunavoidablyinthesteelindustrywemustfindthattomaximizetheirperformanceoftonsperhour,departmentstendtoproduceforstockevenwhenthereisnomarketrequestfortheshortormediumhorizon.如果沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)的結(jié)果是每小時(shí)零噸，如我們所說(shuō)的，各部門(mén)會(huì)設(shè)法達(dá)成最大的噸/小時(shí)績(jī)效，因而在鋼鐵業(yè)不可避免的我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，為了達(dá)到最大的噸/小時(shí)績(jī)效，即使短期或中期內(nèi)沒(méi)有市場(chǎng)需求，各部門(mén)也會(huì)傾向于生產(chǎn)存貨。AmIright對(duì)吧Whatwillunavoidablynowhappeninthefinishedgoodsinventories成品庫(kù)存不可避免的會(huì)發(fā)生那些狀況呢Unavoidably,up.不可避免的，增加。Andifwehaveacomputersoftwarethatweboughtforwhoknowshowmuch,nowwewillforcetheplannertoactivatethiscomputerprogramaccordingtoforecast.如果我們買(mǎi)了一套非常貴的計(jì)算機(jī)軟件，現(xiàn)在我們一定會(huì)強(qiáng)迫企劃員依照預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)跑計(jì)算機(jī)程序。Doyouknowwhatisthemeaningof‘forecast’你知道“預(yù)測(cè)”的意思嗎Themeaningof‘planningtoforecast’,means–Idonothaveenoughordersforshortandmediumhorizon.“依照預(yù)測(cè)做計(jì)劃”的意思是指─中短期內(nèi)我沒(méi)有足夠的訂單。AmIright我對(duì)吧Samethingwillappear.同樣的事情會(huì)發(fā)生Let’stakeitonestepfurther.讓我們?cè)偻耙徊?。Let’slookonanotherfact,530,thatisaninterestingone.讓我們看另一個(gè)事實(shí)，第530號(hào)，那是很有意思的一個(gè)。Whatweseein530is‘everyadditionalset-upreducesthemeasuredtonsperhour’.我們?cè)诘?30號(hào)所看到的是“每增加一次換線(xiàn)會(huì)降低‘噸/小時(shí)’的績(jī)效“。Letmeexplainitalittlebitmore.讓我再多解釋一些。Supposethatyouareproducingtheseplatesandyouareinchargeofthishugerollsdepartment,andrightnowtherollsareaimedtoproduce2inchplatesandyouwanttoproduce1inchplate.假如是你生產(chǎn)這些鋼板，而且你負(fù)責(zé)滾筒部門(mén)，現(xiàn)在滾筒正在生產(chǎn)兩英吋鋼板，而你想要生產(chǎn)一英吋鋼板。Nowyouhavetore-adjustalltheserolls.現(xiàn)在你必須重新調(diào)整全部的滾筒。Nowthisisnoteasy.這可不容易。Withthebesttechnologytodayittakesabout4hours.即使現(xiàn)今最好的技術(shù)也要耗費(fèi)近四個(gè)小時(shí)。Becauseifyoudon’tadjustthemperfectly,youwillnotgetaplate,youwillgetawaffle,ok因?yàn)槿绻悴缓煤玫卣{(diào)整它們，你一片鋼板也得不到，你會(huì)得到波浪似的鋼板。Duringthese4hourswhileyouareadjustingtheserolls,howmanytonsperhourdoyouproduce在你調(diào)整這些滾筒的四小時(shí)之中，每小時(shí)生產(chǎn)了多少?lài)嵞豘ero.零．So,supposethatthisiswhatittakes,that’sreality,andthenifyoulookonalltheordersforthistypeofsteel,thistypeofthicknessfornextweek,thisamountstothreehourswork.所以，假設(shè)這是事實(shí)，然后你看看這一類(lèi)鋼板的訂單，下個(gè)星期這一類(lèi)鋼板厚度總共只有三個(gè)小時(shí)的工作。Willyousetup,producingzeroforfourhours,andthenproduceonlyforthreehoursandthensetupagain.你會(huì)換線(xiàn)，四個(gè)小時(shí)沒(méi)生產(chǎn)，然后只生產(chǎn)三個(gè)小時(shí)，然后再換線(xiàn)一次嗎Ifyouwilldothatyou’renotaforemannextweek.如果你做了，那下個(gè)星期你就不再是領(lǐng)班了。Whichmeansyou’llproducenotfornextweekonly.這表示你不會(huì)只為下星期而生產(chǎn)。Whatabouttwoweeks那么兩個(gè)星期怎么樣Andifthetotalordersfortwoweeksarefivehoursdoyouknowwhatyouwilldo如果兩個(gè)星期的總訂單是五小時(shí)，你知道你會(huì)怎么做嗎Youwillproduceforyourgrandchildren,whynot-themorethebetter.你會(huì)為你的孫子生產(chǎn)，為什么不─越多越好呀！Nowlet’srapitupinmoreprofessionalwords.現(xiàn)在讓我們用較專(zhuān)業(yè)的字眼來(lái)說(shuō)。Itdoesnotchangereality.它不會(huì)改變現(xiàn)實(shí)。Andlet’slookwhatistheunavoidableresult.讓我們看看什么是不可避免之結(jié)果。Sinceweagreedthatdepartmentstrytomaximizeperformanceasmeasuredbytonsperhour,themerefactthat‘everyadditionalsetupreducesthemeasuredtonsperhour’leadsunavoidablytowhat由于我們同意部門(mén)設(shè)法達(dá)成最大的噸/小時(shí)績(jī)效，那么“每多換一次線(xiàn)會(huì)減低噸/小時(shí)”會(huì)導(dǎo)致什么不可避免之結(jié)果呢‘Tomaximizetheperformanceoftonsperhour,departmentstendtopullaheadordersthatenableincreasingthebatchsize.’“為了達(dá)成最大的噸/小時(shí)績(jī)效，部門(mén)會(huì)將可增大批量之訂單拉到前面來(lái)做”。Whatistheunavoidableresultnowintermsoffinishedgoodsinventories以成品庫(kù)存來(lái)說(shuō)，不可避免之結(jié)果是什么呢Up.存貨增加。Whataboutduedateperformance交期績(jī)效又如何呢IfinsteadofworkingtwohoursforthisplateIamworkingtwoshifts.如果這鋼板不是生產(chǎn)二小時(shí)而是兩班。WhatabouttheotherplatesthatIhavetoshipandproduce那其它我要運(yùn)交及生產(chǎn)的鋼板會(huì)怎樣呢Nowlet’swait,noproblem.就讓它等，沒(méi)有問(wèn)題。Unavoidably!不可避免的！Butthat’snottheendofthestory.但這不是故事的結(jié)局。Ormaybeyouhadenough.或是也許你已了解了。Let’stakeitonestepfurther.讓我們?cè)龠M(jìn)一步分析。Wehavetorealizehowtheplantinherentlyisbuiltand560istellingittous.我們必須了解這工廠的本質(zhì)，而第560號(hào)會(huì)告訴我們。Vplant,andthesteelindustryisVplant,producesitemsthroughaprocesshavingmanydivergentpoints.V型工廠，鋼鐵工業(yè)是V型工廠，生產(chǎn)的過(guò)程有許多分歧點(diǎn)。No,no,no,yesIknow.不，不，是的我知道。WhatisVplant,whatisdivergentpoint什么是V型工廠，什么又是分歧點(diǎn)Let’slookonwhatIamtalkingabout.讓我們看看我在說(shuō)什么。Look,inthesteelindustryatthefirststage,atthefirstworkcenter,whichisthishugefurnaceswearedoingrelativelyfewtypesofsteel.看著，在鋼鐵業(yè)，第一個(gè)工作站是這種巨大的熔爐，我們只生產(chǎn)幾種鋼。Let’ssaytwo.就算兩種吧。Butfromthesametypeofsteel,whenIamgoingtothenextdepartment,thedepartmentthatforexampleproducesplates.然而從同種類(lèi)的鋼，當(dāng)我們進(jìn)到下一個(gè)部門(mén)時(shí)，譬如說(shuō)生產(chǎn)鋼板的部門(mén)。FromthesametypeofsteelIcanproduce2,5inchplateor2inchplateor1and?inchplateor1,5inchplate,or1inchplateandsoon.從同種類(lèi)型的鋼可以生產(chǎn)英吋，或2英吋，或1及3/4英吋，或英吋，或1英吋的鋼板等等。Doyouseenowthedivergence你現(xiàn)在看到分歧點(diǎn)了嗎Thisiswhatiscalleddivergentpoint.這就是所謂的分歧點(diǎn)。Andusuallywhatisthemeaningofdivergence–onceyouhavedoneityoucannotgoback.而分歧點(diǎn)的意思是─一旦你做了，你就無(wú)法再回頭。Forexamplewehaveproduced2inchplate.舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，我們已生產(chǎn)了2英吋的鋼板。Nextmorningwesay,aighhweshouldhaveproduced1inch-toolate.第二天早上，我們說(shuō)，唉呀，我們應(yīng)該生產(chǎn)1英吋的─太遲了。Why為什么呢Thesteeliscold.鋼板已硬了。InordertomeltitIagainneedadifferenttypeoffurnace.為了要把它再次熔融，我需要另一個(gè)不同型式的熔爐。Ok,that’sit.就是這樣。Thesamethinghappensatthenextstep.同樣的情形在下一步驟也會(huì)發(fā)生。Forexample,usuallythenextstepafterthatissurfacetreatment.例如，通常下一步驟是表面處理。ThesametypeofsteelwiththesamethicknessIcanjustcleanit,whichisnotsosimpleatall,orIcantinplateitorIcangalvanomeitorIcangalvanizeit.同類(lèi)型同樣厚度之鋼板，我可以只是加以清潔，雖然一點(diǎn)也不簡(jiǎn)單，或者將之鍍錫或鍍鉻或鍍鋅。Doyouseeagainthedivergence你是否再一次看到分歧點(diǎn)呢Thenextstepafterthatusuallyiscuttingtheplatestosize.下一步驟通常是把鋼板切成所要的尺寸。Thesametypeofsteelatthesamethickness,thesamesurfacetreatmentIcancutintolet’ssay70inchwideplateor65inchwideplateor60inchplateandsoon.同類(lèi)型同樣厚度相同表面處理之鋼板，我可以把它切成譬如說(shuō)70英吋寬的鋼板或65英吋寬的鋼板或60英吋寬的鋼板。NowyouunderstandwhyIcallthisstructuretheVplant.現(xiàn)在你了解為什么我把這種結(jié)構(gòu)稱(chēng)作V型工廠。Asamatteroffact,manyofyourealizethatyourindustry,eventhoughithasnothingtodowithsteel,isaVplant.事實(shí)上，你們之中許多人都了解到你的產(chǎn)業(yè)，即使與鋼鐵無(wú)關(guān)，也是一個(gè)V型工廠。Itturnsoutthatthereareonly4structures:V,A,TI.總共只有四種結(jié)構(gòu)：V、A、T和I。Forgetitnow;let’scontinueon.現(xiàn)在先忘了它，讓我們繼續(xù)。Nowlet’slookwhatishappeninghereandwhatistheproblem.現(xiàn)在讓我們看看這里發(fā)生了什么事與問(wèn)題在哪里。Supposethatfort