資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財務(wù)-深圳-david-wangxd

PropertyDevelopmentandFinance

資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財務(wù)Lecturer:YUYONG1Part1INTRODUCTION2

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTIONTOTHEPROPERTYDEVELPOMENTPROCESS

對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)過程的介紹Section1. Introduction （介紹） Section2. Theeconomiccontextofpropertydevelopment（房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景）

3

Section1. Introduction

DefinitionPropertydevelopmentistheprocessbywhichbuildingsareerectedforoccupationorforsale/investment.房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)是一個從建設(shè)到處置的過程EssentialpointPropertydevelopmentismuchlikeanyothereconomicactivity,itactstosatisfywantswiththeapplicationofscarceresources.

房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)像其它商業(yè)活動一樣是一個在無限需求中分配有限資源的過程。4Thedevelopmentprocess開發(fā)過程choosingalocation位置選擇;identifyingasiteandcarryingoutadetailedsitesurvey地點選擇與勘察;providinganoutlineschemeandappraisal制定開發(fā)計劃和可研;negotiatingforsiteacquisition土地談判;Design初設(shè);planningconsent規(guī)劃審批;Finance融資;siteacquisition獲取土地;detailedplans詳細(xì)設(shè)計;tenderdocuments招投標(biāo);Construction建設(shè);occupationormarketingandmanagement處置.5BasicFormulasvalue?cost=profitGDV?(buildingcosts+sitevalue)=profitthegrossdevelopmentvalue(GDV開發(fā)總值)

GDV?(buildingcosts+profit)=EUV(existingusevalue剩余使用價值)

6SomeConceptsValueofthesite: whichdependsonlocation,use(underplanninglaw),topography,legalconstraints,groundconditions,servicesandaccess.土地價值取決于位置、用途、地形、法律限制、地況和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。Valueoftheproposeddevelopment: whichdependsonuse,density,design,layoutandinfrastructure.預(yù)計的開發(fā)價值取決于用途、容積率、設(shè)計、布局和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。Costofconstruction: whichdependsonsize,design,typeofbuildings,planningconstraintsonbuildings,landscapingandprovisionofservicesandaccess.建設(shè)成本取決于規(guī)模、設(shè)計、建筑類型、規(guī)劃約束、景觀及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。7Approachestovaluingthedevelopmentproperty

theinvestmentmethod投資法（重置成本法）;thecomparativemethod比較法;thecontractor‘stest成本加成法(acostbasedmethod)theprofitsmethod收益法;and,theresidualvaluation余值法.8Partiesinthedevelopmentprocess

地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的參與者Theprofessionaladvisors專家Theclients客戶Theplanningauthority規(guī)劃部門Thecontractor施工方Thecommunity社區(qū)Thefunders資金方9SECTION2:THEECONOMICCONTEXTOFPROPERTYDEVELOPMENT房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景HistorictraceKeynesianapproachto‘demandmanagement’凱恩斯主義與需求管理

The‘supplyside’ofmacroeconomics供給學(xué)派Developmentproperty房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展10Twoviews兩種觀點Fromeconomists’aspect宏觀政府方面Economistsarebasicallyinterestedintheinfluenceofpropertyoneconomicgrowthandefficiencyandtheeffectoflocationonfirmsandjobs.

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和就業(yè)Frompropertydevelopers’aspect

微觀企業(yè)方面Propertydeveloperstendtoapproachpropertyfromadifferentviewfromeconomists.Theyarelikelytofocusonanarrowbandofthepropertymarket,moreconcernedwiththemarketabilityandprofitabilityofpotentialdevelopments.

盈利11Optimalsizeofbuilding

最優(yōu)開發(fā)規(guī)模UnitsofaccommodationSitevalueMCMRXPQYV12MR邊際收入= theextrarevenuetobeearnedfromtheadditionofeachsuccessiveunitofaccommodationtoafixedareaofland.Theextraaccommodationisathigher,lessaccessiblelevelsandthusvaluefalls(decreasingmarginalproductivity).MC邊際成本= theadditionalcostsofeachextraunitofaccommodation.Initiallythisfalls(ieinbuildingasecondstorey)butthenitincreases(extralifts,expensivefoundations,projectperiodlengthens).PQY= theprofitthedeveloperwillmakefromthesite(thedifferencebetweenthetotalrevenueandcost).13Part2FINANCIALAPPRAISAL財務(wù)評價14CHAPTER2:THEDEVELOPMENTAPPRAISAL開發(fā)評價Section1.Introduction Section2.Sitefinding 尋找土地 Section3.Siteappraisal土地評價 Section4.Planningconsiderations規(guī)劃安排 Section5.Marketresearch市場調(diào)研 15Section1. IntroductionTheselectionofasitefundamentallyaffectsthenatureandsuccessofadevelopment.Noamountofcarefuldesignorpromotioncantotallyovercomethedisadvantageofpoorlocation.土地的重要性就在于它決定了開發(fā)的性質(zhì)和成功與否。這些往往不是后期的設(shè)計和促銷工作能替代的。16Section2. Sitefinding土地尋找的影響因素Thedevelopermayhaveabusinessstrategywhichrestrictstheoperationstoageographiclocationorrestrictsactivitytoparticulartypesofdevelopment

公司的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略

17Distancetodevelopmentsitesmaybeaproblemineffectivelymanagingsites.開發(fā)距離Thedeveloper‘sskillandknowledgeisimportantinidentifyingareasofpotentialgrowth開發(fā)商的專業(yè)知識.Thereleaseoflocalauthoritylandwillhaveregardtomarketconditionsbutwillalsobeinfluencedbytheprovisionsoftheirdevelopmentplans政府規(guī)劃18Sitedisposals土地的處置方式Informaltenderandinvitationstooffer邀標(biāo).

Thedeveloperwillhavetheabilitytorenegotiatethepricebeforeexchangeofcontracts

Formaltenders投標(biāo)

Developersdonotlikeformaltendersasitreducestheirflexibilityandincreasestheirrisk.

Competitions競標(biāo)Thesecompetitionsareusedwhenfinancialconsiderationsarenottheonlycriteriaforthedisposalofthesite.

Auctions.拍賣19Section3. Siteappraisal土地評價Access通道Accessisimportantfromalegalpointofview.Youhavetoascertainifaccessisprovidedfromasitetoapublicrightofwaysuchasaroadorhighwayadoptedbythelocalauthority.Iftheroadhasbeenadopted,thenresearchintothedeedstodiscovertheextentofrightsoveraccessroadswillneedtobecarriedout.20GroundConditions土地狀況Thegroundconditionsofasitewillbeextremelyimportantwhetherthesitehasbeenanagriculturalsite,wastelandorapreviouslyusedsite.21SurfaceLandscapeandBoundaries地面景觀和邊界Theexistingsurfacelandscapemaybetreasuredonalocalornationallevel.Theseaspectsmayrelatetoplanninglaw.Ownershipoftheboundariesshouldalsobenotedfromthedeedsbuttherecanbedisagreementwhereboundarieshavebeenreplacedorwhereonepartyhasmaintainedthefenceasopposedtoanother.22Services基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施Servicesmaygooverorundertheland.Thoserunningoverareusuallycables,probablyelectricityortelephonecables.Thoserunningbelowthegroundmaybecablesordrainruns.23Contamination污染Contaminationisakeyproblemandcanrenderlandvalueless.24Governmentassistance優(yōu)惠政策Governmentassistanceisavailabletodeveloperstoassistindevelopingsitesincertainlocationsundercertaincriteria.Theloansavailableincludemoneyforcitygrantsandallowancesinenterprisezonesandurbandevelopmentcorporationareas.Assistanceisalsoprovidedthroughthesimplifiedplanningzones.25SECTION4:PLANNINGCONSIDERATIONS規(guī)劃階段Theplanningsystem規(guī)劃系統(tǒng)

Anyonewishingtocarryoutdevelopmentforwhichplanningconsentisrequiredmustapplytothelocalplanningauthoritywhichisnormallythelocaldistrictcouncil.

任何需要做開發(fā)的項目都要到當(dāng)?shù)卣囊?guī)劃部門申報審批。26Theplanningprocess申報流程ApplyPlanningauthorityFormaldecisionEightweeksFeespayableAppealtotheSecretaryofStateGrantedRefusedBeyondthetime27Planningconstraints規(guī)劃約束

Thereareanumberofplanningconstraintswhichwillaffectredevelopmentproposals.Thesecanbesummarisedasgreenbelts,nationalparks,areasofoutstandingnationalbeauty,areasoflandscapevalue,strategicgaps,urbanopenspace,scheduledancientmonumentsandagriculturalland.28Developmentplans開發(fā)規(guī)劃Structureplans（框架性規(guī)劃）setthebroadframeworkforplanningatlocallevelandtheyprovidethestrategicpolicyframeworkforplanningandensurethatthedevelopmentcoincideswithnationalpolicy.Localplans（具體規(guī)劃）setoutdetailedpoliciesandspecificproposalsforthedevelopmentanduseofland.Unitarydevelopmentplans（綜合性規(guī)劃）combinethestructureplanandthelocalplan.29DevelopmentControlThedensity容積率whichisbasedonplotratioFSI樓層系數(shù)(floorspaceindex,wherehalfthewidthofadjoiningstreetsisaddedtothesiteindeterminingsiteareafordensitypurposes).Theresidentialdensity居住密度isbasedondwellingsperhectare,housesperhectare

Conservationarea預(yù)留面積orconservationofaparticularbuildingortree

30SECTION5:MARKETRESEARCH市場調(diào)研Theformulafortheestimate

(Chainmethod)

M=NxQxPwhereMisthetotalmarketpotential,Nisthenumberofbuyersinthespecificmarket,QisthequantitypurchasedbyanaveragebuyerandPisthepriceoftheaverageproduct.Forinstance,iftherearetwohundredhi-technologycompanieswhowishtobuyanewproductionfacilityeveryfiveyearsandtheaveragepriceofthefacilityissay￡200,000foranaveragefloorspaceof500squaremetres,thenthetotalmarketpotentialisapproximately￡40,000,000overafiveyearperiod.31Researchintoanewshoppingcentredevelopment(3steps)新建購物中心項目的市場調(diào)研步驟Firstly,backgroundanalysis背景分析Secondly,marketanalysis市場分析Thirdly,anestimationofthesizeoftheproject建設(shè)狀況預(yù)測32CHAPTER3:THERESIDUALVALUATIONANDGROUNDRENTS余值法與地租

Section1.Theresidualvaluation余值法 Section2.Calculationofthedevelopmentprofit開發(fā)利潤的計算 Section3.Calculationofgroundrents 地租的計算 Section4.Partnershipschemesandequitysharing 合伙計劃 33SECTION1:THERESIDUALVALUATION

余值法SimplifiedResidualCalculation

Casestudy(p36)

ThecostsinaresidualvaluationwhichhavetobedeductedfromtheGrossDevelopmentValueinclude余值法中，需要從總開發(fā)價值中扣減的成本包括: Buildingcostsandfees建筑成本和費用. Feesonlettingandadvertising租賃費和廣告費. Interestoncosts利息. Contingencies不可預(yù)見費. Purchasecostsofland土地購置費(notthelandvalueasthisistheresidual).Purchasecostswouldincludefeesonpurchaseandcompensationfortenantstoobtainvacantpossession.34Figure3.1: Scurveofbuildingcosts建設(shè)成本曲線35Developmentperiod:p39)

figure開發(fā)周期圖<TotalDevelopmentPeriod> Planning Building VoidInvestment Period Contract Period soldor refinanced0>6>15> 18monthsInterestCharges:>LandPurchase18months

>> 1/2Buildingcost9monthsTotalcost

2/3Feesandfees3months >Advertising,contingency,andagentsfees3months36DevelopersProfit:p40)formula開發(fā)成本的轉(zhuǎn)化公式ThisisapercentagebasedontheGrossDevelopmentValueortotalcost.Say20%totalcostorsay17%GrossDevelopmentValue.Thesetwofiguresareinter-related,ie: GDV-TotalCost(TC)=Profit, ifProfit=0.2TC,thenTC=P/0.2 GDV-P/0.2=P,GDV=P+P/0.2=0.2P+P=1.2P 0.2 0.2

thusP=GDV/6=16.5%GDVCASESTUDY:DEVELOPMENTVALUATION:p41-44)37SECTION3:CALCULATIONOFTHEDEVELOPMENTPROFIT

開發(fā)利潤計算(1) Capitalprofitoncompletion(profitmethod)Expectedcapitalvalue ￡9,826,947Expectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total ￡6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1?years 429,488*

￡8,071,312 Residualprofit ￡1,755,635*Thisiscalculatedbycompoundinterest,ie[￡1,550,000x(1+0.15)1.75]-￡1,550,000.GDV-(BC+LC)=PFromthecalculation:Profitasapercentageoftotalcost=￡1,755,635= 21.8% ￡8,071,312 Profitasapercentageofcapitalvalue=￡1,755,635=17.9% ￡9,826,947 38Annualprofitifschemeisretainedasaninvestment.年投資利潤率的計算Expectedannualincome ￡687,680paExpectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total ￡6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1?years 429,488

￡8,071,312 Developmentyield=￡687,680=8.52% ￡8,071,312Thusanyreturngreaterthan7%(687680÷9826947)couldbethedevelopersprofit=1.52%.(1.52%.*100/7=21.8%)So,intheresidualvaluationapproach:

Value-Cost=Profitonacapitalbasisand,

Developmentyield-Investmentyield=Developers'profitonanannualbasis.39AlternativeApproaches余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法

Thetraditionalresidualtechniqueisnotadequatetodealwithamorecomplexdevelopmentsituationwhereexpenditureandincomearebeingincurredandreceivedatdifferenttimesoveralongtimescale傳統(tǒng)的余值法無法解決收入和支出在不同期間發(fā)生的準(zhǔn)確計算問題。.Aresidualvaluationisverysensitivetoslightvariationsinitsdifferentelementssuchasrent,initialyields,constructioncosts,financerateandbuildingperiod傳統(tǒng)的余值法敏感性過高。Greateraccuracycanbeachievedbyusingcashflowapproaches;現(xiàn)金流量法是一種更為精確的方法。

1. acashflowmethod,usingperiodbyperiodcashflowsonwhichinterestcanbecharged;現(xiàn)今流量法使用逐期計算的方法解決利息的計算問題。2. adiscountedcashflowmethod,asaboveexceptthattheflowsarediscountedbacktothepresent;折現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)金流量法解決折現(xiàn)問題。3. ADCFapproach,buildinginflationintocostsandgrowthintorents.現(xiàn)金流量法可以把同伙膨脹因素考慮在內(nèi)。40SensitivityandRisk敏感性（風(fēng)險）分析要素1 LandCosts土地成本2 AncillaryCostsofAcquisition獲取成本3 Pre-BuildingContractPeriod建筑前期間4 ShortTermRateofInterest短期利率5 AreaofBuilding建設(shè)面積6 BuildingCosts建筑成本7 ProfessionalFees專業(yè)費用8 BuildingandLettingPeriod建設(shè)和租賃期9 Agents‘Fees代理費10 AdvertisingCosts廣告費11 RentalIncome租金12 InvestorsYield投資回報41Sensitivitytesting敏感性測試

Development Development Onprimesite Oncheapsite (landcosthighinproportion(landcostlowin toothercosts). proportiontoothercosts).

GDV ￡1,000,000 ￡1,000,000 TotalCosts(inc.finance) 700,000

900,000LandValue 300,000

100,000Assumethreescenariosfortheaboveappraisals:i) Valueandcostincreaseinthesameproportion.Inthiscaselandvaluewillincreaseinthesameproportion.ii) Valueincreasesby30%,costby10%. PrimeDevelopmentSite Other ￡1,300,000 ￡1,300,000

770,000

990,000 LandValue 530,000 310,000 +77% +210%Thus,ifvalueincreasesbymorethancost,itaffectslandvaluemoreifthelandvalueissmallinproportiontothetotalvalueofthedevelopment.iii) Valueincreases10%:Cost20% GDV ￡1,100,000 ￡1,100,000 TotalCost 840,000

1,080,000 LandValue 260,000 20,000 -13% -80%42SECTION4:CALCULATIONOFGROUNDRENTS地租的計算Thiscalculationisusefulwheredevelopersorlandownersdonotdisposeofcompleteddevelopmentsbutretainaproportionofincomearisingfromthedevelopment.這種計算比較適合部分出售，部分出租的情況。43ExampleofgroundrentcalculationAssumethecalculationofagroundrentona125yearleasewith5yearrentreviews.EstimatedIncome: ￡500,000paYield: 7%freehold:foralonglease,say7.5%Financecosts: 15%Estimatedcosts: ￡5,000,000(allcostsexceptland)Profit: 20%costsCalculation: ￡ ￡Income 500,000paActualcost 5,000,000Yield@7.5%,decapitaliseby .075Returnforriskandprofit(20%of7.5%say) .015Totaldevelopmentyield .09Developer'scostsandprofit 450,000paGroundrentavailable 50,000paFuturerentgrowth:Ifthefuturerentisdividedupontheoriginalproportionsagreed,itiscalledaproportionalarrangement,asopposedtoagearedarrangement.Thus:Futuregrowthapportioned50,000patolocalauthority/landowner=groundrent 500,000pa totalincome = 10%Developer'sreturn = 450,000pa 500,000pa = 90%44SECTION5

PARTNERSHIPSCHEMESANDEQUITYSHARING合伙計劃Partnershipschemescovermanyeventualitieswherelandowners,developersandfundersdonotdisposeoftheirinterestsbutretainthemandshareintheincomearising.合伙計劃是各參與方以即期利益交換員其收益權(quán)的方法。Arrangementsmaygiverisetoslicesofincometothedifferentparties.Theseslicesreflectriskandreward根據(jù)受益于風(fēng)險對等的原則設(shè)置分配計劃。Hereanagreementisreachedofdividingtheincomeattheappraisalstage.Ifmoreincomeisinfactgenerated,thenthisadditionalincomeortopslicecanalsobedividedup,perhapsonadifferentbasis.要達(dá)成對預(yù)計收益和超額收益進(jìn)行處置的協(xié)議。45ParticipationThereisagrowthintheactualincomeoverthedevelopmentperiodanditisassumedthatthisgrowthisshared50:50. EstimatedIncome: ￡500,000pa Actualincome(plussay20%) ￡600,000pa Estimatedcosts: ￡5,000,000 Actualcosts(plussay10%) ￡5,500,000Theoriginalgroundrentwas￡50,000pabutnowthereisagreementthatanyexcessofreturnoverthepositionsetoutintheestimatedpositionisshared50:50.Calculation: ￡ ￡Actualincome 600,000paActualcost 5,500,000Decapitalisebythedevelopmentyield .09

495,000paResidue 105,000palessgroundrent 50,000paExcess 55,000pa ￡thus: 50%excesstolocalauthority 27,500pa plusoriginalgroundrent 50,000pa Revisedgroundrent 77,500paFuturegrowthapportioned:tolocalauthority 77,500pa 600,000pa =12.9%Sodevelopergets87.1%.

46Advantagesofpartnerships–Developer合伙計劃對開發(fā)商的好處Landassembly:compulsorypurchasemaybetheonlymeanstocompletethesiteandalocalauthoritymaybeabletoprovidethese.Itwouldcertainlyreducethedevelopmentperiod.便于征地，降低成本，縮短工期。Thelocalauthoritycanassistonplanning,BuildingRegulationsandhighwaymatters.Inpartnershipitcouldalsoprovidegoodpublicity.利于獲得好的規(guī)劃條件3 Ifthelocalauthorityprovidesthesite,therearenositeacquisitioncostsnorfinancechargesonsitetobecarrieduntildevelopment.節(jié)省了購地款及其利息4 Thelocalauthoritycouldapplyforgrantstosubsidisedevelopmentcosts:政府對開發(fā)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼 - Landgrantstoimprovesoil/groundconditions - Developmentgrantstohelpsubsidiseschemesthatdon'tquitework.47Advantagesofpartnerships-LocalAuthority開發(fā)計劃對政府的好處LocalAuthoritycanencouragedevelopmentandinitiateschemes.Itcanprovide“pumppriming”moniesorsubsidyorland.政府可以為投入補(bǔ)貼和土地找到好的理由ThelocalauthorityhasmorecontroloverwhatisbeingdevelopediftheLocalAuthorityisactuallyinvolvedinthedevelopment.可以加強(qiáng)政府對開發(fā)項目的控制程度48Partnershipscomplementtheskillsofthetwoparties.Thelocalauthoritycanprovidebackuponengineeringmatters,sewers,roads,transport,planningwhereastheprivatepartnerprovidesprojectmanagementandfinancialexpertiseanddevelopmentknowledge.Thedeveloperalsotakestheriskindeveloping.雙方實現(xiàn)優(yōu)勢互補(bǔ)，開發(fā)商會提供相應(yīng)的開發(fā)、融資及管理技術(shù)并承擔(dān)風(fēng)險。Allowsdevelopmenttobefundedinthemarket.Privatefundsmaybeattractedtoapartnershipscheme,butnottoalocalauthorityscheme.Thepartnerisoftenchosenforexpertiseinraisingfunds.有利于吸引資金5. Byproportionaterentsharingarrangements,thelocalauthoritycanshareinfuturegrowthinrentsinthescheme政府可以分享今后項目成長帶來的好處。.49CHAPTER4:CASHFLOWAPPROACHES現(xiàn)金流量法Section1.Introduction Section2.Thedifferencebetweentheresidualmethodandthecashflowapproach.余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法的區(qū)別

Section3.Useofcashflowmethods現(xiàn)金流量法的應(yīng)用Section4.Cashflowcalculations現(xiàn)金流量法的計算50SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONTheargumentofusingdiscountedcashflows(DCF)approachesagainsttraditionalvaluationsisextensive.Cashflowscanassistinthecalculationofcostsoverthedevelopmentperiod.Thebasisresidualmethodisunalteredbutthecashflowapproachgivesamoredetailedcalculationofthescheme‘stotalcostsandthusthefinancecosts.現(xiàn)今流量法可以更為詳細(xì)和具體地進(jìn)行開發(fā)期間內(nèi)的成本計算。51SECTION2:THEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHERESIDUALANDTHECASHFLOWAPPROACH余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法的區(qū)別

Inthecashflowapproach,alldevelopmentcostsaredividedintomonthly(orquarterlyorannual)amounts.Thenetcashflowsarecalculatedandshorttermfinanceallowedforeachperiod.Cashflowsdealmoreaccuratelywiththebuildupoftotalconstructioncostsovertheperiod.現(xiàn)金流量法的計算是建立在巴整個開發(fā)周期劃分為月或季度，所以無論是短期還是整個開發(fā)期內(nèi)的現(xiàn)金流量都可以準(zhǔn)確計算。52ErrorsintheTraditionalResidual傳統(tǒng)余值法存在的問題Therearetwoerrorsinthetraditionalresidual:Itisassumedthatthetotalmoneyborrowedwillbearinterestoverhalftheperiodorhalfthemoneyisborrowedoverthetotalperiod.Thisisinaccuratebecause: 以借貸平均值或期間平均值來計算現(xiàn)金流非常不準(zhǔn)確，這是因為： a) Itbearsnorelationtoactualincidenceofcostswhichmaydifferfrommonthtomonthovertheperiod; 每一期成本發(fā)生可能有很大差異。 b) Interestcompoundsmonthlyorquarterlyovertheperioddependingonthearrangementswiththelender,thesimpleinterestformulaofthetraditionalresidual,orevencompoundingannuallyisanoversimplification.復(fù)利法的具體安排需要和資方具體商量，不能簡單平均。532. ThebuildupofbuildingcostsasshownintheScurvesuggeststhatcostsareloadedtotheendofthebuildingperiod.Intheexampleonly40%ofthecostsareincurredhalfwaythroughtheperiod.Thismaybebecausegroundandinitialworksmaybecheaper.Thiswilldependoncircumstancesbutinmanycasesthisisafairassumption.Anybuildingwithcomplexserviceprovisionintheformofliftsorairconditioningorwithexpensivefinisheswillexaggeratethistendency.Thetraditionalmethodwillthusallowfortoomuchinterest.根據(jù)s曲線，很多項目都是前期基礎(chǔ)工程成本較低，后期設(shè)備工程成本較高，如果簡單平均安排資金，這會加大開發(fā)上的資金成本。54Section2.Useofcashflowmethods現(xiàn)金流量法的應(yīng)用

55Cashflowsareusefulfor現(xiàn)金流量法用于:1. Showingtheeffectofinflationinrentsandbuildingcostsovertime.表現(xiàn)通貨膨脹的影響2. Sensitivityanalysis,toexaminetheeffectofchangesontheelementsofcost.用于敏感性分析3. Includingtaxinthecalculation.計算稅收因素4. Takingintoaccountaphaseddevelopmentandpartialdisposal.用于分階段開發(fā)和部分處置的情況5. Showingthedebtoutstandingatanypoint.可以顯示任何時點上的負(fù)債狀況。6. Showingthetimeofpeakcashoutlay.顯示現(xiàn)金流出的峰值期56Cashflowsareanecessityforcertaindevelopments以下情況比較適用現(xiàn)金流量法:

1. Residentialestateswithphaseddisposal,whereanewphaseofhousesarebeingbuiltandanexistingphaseisbeingsoldofftofundthecostofthenewphase.分期開發(fā)的住宅地產(chǎn)2. Complexcentralareashoppingschemes.復(fù)雜的購物中心項目3. Industrialestatesorbusinessparkswithaprogramofdisposalofsitesandcompletedbuildings.工業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目4. NewTowndevelopmentswithaphasedimplementationofschemes.分期實施的新城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)項目57Figure4.1: Cashflowappraisal:alternativeapproaches58Example:(TakenfromMorley(1988a)Valueasiteforshopandofficedevelopment.Outgoings,buildingcostsandfeesbreakdownasfollows,excludingfinance. Year1 ￡ Year2 ￡ Quarter 1 100000 Quarter 5 150000 2 120000 6 175000 3 130000 7 175000 4 150000 8 150000

Thebuilderisusuallypaidmonthlysoamonthlycashflowisneededforthis,thedeveloperusesaquarterlycashflowasinterestischargedonaquarterlybasis.

Incomefromschemeis￡160,000anditcouldbesoldata7%yieldfor￡2,290,000afterbuildingworkiscomplete.Financeis4%perquarter(17%p.a.).Thereturnforriskandprofitis20%capitalvalue. 59TraditionalResidual

￡ Income 160000YPperp@7% 14.3 ________GrossDevelopmentValue 2285714lesscosts: Buildingcost+fees 1150000 Finance@17%for1/2costsfor2years 195500 _______ Totalcosts 1345500 Returnforriskandprofit@20%capitalvalue 457143 _________Costsplusprofit 1802643 _________Sitevalueoncompletion 483071P.V.￡1in2years@17% 0.730514 _________SiteValuetoday 352890

(includingpurchasecosts)60PeriodbyPeriodCashflow

SeeP77)61NetTerminalValuePeriodNetflow Interestuntil Netoutlay asabove completion@ oncompletion ￡ 4.00% ￡ (seebelow)1 ?100000 1.315932 ?1315932 ?120000 1.265319 ?1518383 ?130000 1.216653 ?1581654 ?150000 1.169859 ?1754795 ?150000 1.124864 ?1687306 ?175000 1.0816 ?1892807 ?175000 1.04 ?1820008 ?150000 1 ?150000 ?1307085Thisgivesthesameanswerasabove. 62DiscountedCashFlow

Period Netflow P.V.￡1@P.V.of asabove 4.00% cashflow ￡ ￡1 ?100000 0.961538 ?961542 ?120000 0.924556 ?1109473 ?130000 0.888996 ?1155704 ?150000 0.854804 ?1282215 ?150000 0.821927 ?1232896 ?175000 0.790315 ?1383057 ?175000 0.759918 ?1329868 ?150000 0.73069 ?109604Totalcost ?955074?Profit ?457143 0.73069 ?334030+Value 2285714 0.73069 Sitevaluetoday 38104563Themaindifferencesbetweentheapproachescanthusbedistinguished:三種方法的主要區(qū)別Periodbyperiod分期法1. Theinterestisassessedquarterlyontheoutstandingamountfromthepreviousquarter.利息是按季度逐期累計的2. Thisisamoreaccuratestatementofcostplusinterest,thetotalcostisdeductedfromtheGrossDevelopmentvaluetogetsitevalue.是一種比較準(zhǔn)確的方法3. Youneedtopresentvaluethesitevalue.地價需要折項NetTerminalValue凈終值法1. Theinterestperquarterisassessedtotheendoftheproject.利息按照期末值計算2.&3.Asabove.DiscountedCashFlow折現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)金流量法1. Thecostandinterestispresentvaluedfortheperiodinvolved.成本和利息在各期自行折現(xiàn)2. Thevalueandprofitispresentvaluedandthesitevalueworkedout.開發(fā)價值和利潤都是現(xiàn)值。3. Thesitevalueisalreadypresentvalued.地價已經(jīng)是現(xiàn)值64SECTION4:CASHFLOWCALCULATIONS現(xiàn)金流量法的計算Exampleofadevelopmentappraisalusingacashflow.SeeTable4-1P84)Table4-2P95)65CHAPTER5:THEORIESOFFINANCE融資理論Section1.Introduction Section2.Financialtheoryandthetheoriesdeveloped融資理論及其發(fā)展

Section3.Applicationoftheoryinpractice融資理論的應(yīng)用

66SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONTherearebasicprinciplesofthefinancialstructure融資結(jié)構(gòu)的原則i) Acompanymustmaintainabalancebetweenequityanddebtcapital.

股權(quán)與債權(quán)資本的平衡ii) Thereshouldbeabalanceofmaturitydatesofthedebtwiththemajoritybeinglongterm.債務(wù)的到期日必須均衡iii)Acompanyshouldmatchshorttermassetswithshorttermliabilitiesandlongtermassetswithlongtermliabilities流動負(fù)債和流動資產(chǎn)，長期負(fù)債和長期資產(chǎn)必須匹配67iv) Companiesshouldmaintainabalancebetweenfixedinterestmoneyandvariableinterestmoney.

固定利率和變動利率的債務(wù)必須平衡v) Debtshouldbestructuredsothatinterestrepaymentsarespreadovertheyearsoastoevenoutthecashflowforthecompanyor,better,tocoincidewithincomereceived.還債的時間最好分散于全年，最好和現(xiàn)金收入期相配合vi) Toavoidforeigncur