樓市轉(zhuǎn)冷原因分析及四季度預(yù)測(cè)

因分析季度預(yù)測(cè)中原地產(chǎn)研究院2021年9月7月起，全國(guó)新房銷售面積同比轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，多數(shù)城市7、8月銷售面積同比下跌；有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，近期各地房貸放款時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)，是造成樓市成交量下跌的直接原因。據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)：主要一二線城市房貸收緊時(shí)間與樓市成交量下跌之間并無(wú)對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系?？?，房貸放款延長(zhǎng)，主要影響二手房成交量，但對(duì)新房銷售(網(wǎng)簽)并無(wú)直接影響。售強(qiáng)勁，背后原因是購(gòu)房者對(duì)未來(lái)房?jī)r(jià)上漲的心理預(yù)期推動(dòng)投資保值需求，而并非真實(shí)居住需求增長(zhǎng)。，因此樓市開始轉(zhuǎn)冷；布的半年報(bào)“推動(dòng)樓市反彈的力量正在消失”中，對(duì)上述邏輯有詳細(xì)闡述。當(dāng)前樓市的走勢(shì)，仍然符合上述判斷。盤首日認(rèn)購(gòu)率、來(lái)訪指數(shù)、經(jīng)理指數(shù)等指標(biāo)依然維持低位：報(bào)價(jià)指數(shù)、經(jīng)理指數(shù)同樣維持低位一二線城市9-12月成交量同比下跌10-20%，各城9-12月成交量同比預(yù)計(jì)下跌10%以上，部分政策較嚴(yán)的城市預(yù)計(jì)將跌30%以上。力擔(dān)心由于放水而造成貨幣貶值，房?jī)r(jià)上漲，個(gè)人財(cái)富縮水，因而選擇購(gòu)房作為儲(chǔ)藏財(cái)富的手段；快速上漲，尤其是有價(jià)格最高漲幅一度達(dá)蔓延其他城市的恐慌情緒。%，看漲預(yù)期推動(dòng)了本輪樓市反彈.中原重點(diǎn)城市平均住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)/租金指數(shù)(2017.01-2020.12)求超過(guò)居住需求注：重點(diǎn)城市包括北上廣深、天津、成都、重慶共7城市數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：中原地產(chǎn)研究院政策持續(xù)收緊導(dǎo)致購(gòu)房者預(yù)期回落是樓市轉(zhuǎn)冷的主要原因A.直接政策影響市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)冷的城市(13城)：典型如深圳、東莞，調(diào)控力度較大，調(diào)控后新房/二手成交量、新開盤認(rèn)購(gòu)率等主要指標(biāo)均顯著回落。B.受市場(chǎng)環(huán)境影響，預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)變導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)冷的城市(22城)：這類城市數(shù)量大于第一類，其2020年7月后政策收緊力度不大，但2021年4月后市場(chǎng)也出現(xiàn)了下滑跡象，全國(guó)各線城市新房銷售面積月度同比(2021.02-08)一線成交量二線成交量三、四線成交量C.政策利好，市場(chǎng)熱度較高的(極少數(shù))：福州、廈門——落戶/人才政策利好，00%7月起負(fù)增長(zhǎng)202102202103202104202105202106202107202108最右側(cè)為放款周期情況(黃框部分)，數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自中原各城市調(diào)研結(jié)果(3.5-6代表其放款周期從3.5個(gè)月延長(zhǎng)至6個(gè)月，只有單個(gè)數(shù)字表示沒(méi)變)，底紋最右側(cè)為放款周期情況(黃框部分)，數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自中原各城市調(diào)研結(jié)果(3.5-6代表其放款周期從3.5個(gè)月延長(zhǎng)至6個(gè)月，只有單個(gè)數(shù)字表示沒(méi)變)，底紋越紅說(shuō)明放款收緊力度越大。的示不同城市政策與市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)變本行為政策內(nèi)容(紅框部分)，政策內(nèi)容的位置代表其發(fā)布時(shí)間，字體顏色越紅代表政策越嚴(yán)格；例：紅色虛線的單元格代表2021年2月上海出臺(tái)新房積分制政策交量2交量202012202010202011202005202006202007202004202008202009策661.25105.6381.3182.1397.59110.6995.6677.11122.722021012202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109周期情況稅積分制優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限購(gòu)5年二手價(jià)格核驗(yàn)；利率上調(diào)三價(jià)就低110.2876.6561.48100.10市場(chǎng)從2020年12月起升溫(成交量轉(zhuǎn)紅)；2021年1、2月調(diào)控政策出臺(tái)后，市場(chǎng)快速轉(zhuǎn)冷(成交量由紅轉(zhuǎn)綠)；2021年7、9月政策繼續(xù)收緊；各城主要調(diào)控政策與新房成交量走勢(shì)調(diào)控大幅加碼(圖中紅色文字)；各城主要調(diào)控政策與新房成交量走勢(shì)調(diào)控大幅加碼(圖中紅色文字)；3月后成交量普遍下行(綠色底紋)A大。政202004202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107限購(gòu)5年二手價(jià)格核驗(yàn)100.10100.1061.4880.2276.65202108202109放款周期情放款周期情況上海政策成交量61.2561.25105.6381.3182.1397.59110.6995.6677.11122.72離異；增值積分制優(yōu)先購(gòu)房110.28；利率上調(diào)三價(jià)就低3.5-6143.5267.69廣州政策成交量72.9972.9969.8496.7192.42103.85106.09120.13133.76172.37153153.6591.52嚴(yán)查首付105.61/經(jīng)營(yíng)貸各類人才政策收緊109.70109.70116.7783.3076.50二手房指導(dǎo)價(jià)4.5-8深圳政策成交量29.1929.1927.2832.34落戶滿3；離異；首付升；增值稅升；普宅標(biāo)準(zhǔn)升715政策補(bǔ)二手指導(dǎo)價(jià)利率上調(diào)；銀行受監(jiān)管134.2839.7547.1044.2860.5648.8577.7229.6747.6934.6925.0728.3128.55合肥政策成交量67.5967.5981.2273.1079.2768.9766.4971.3387.3095.32限售;公積金限制1.5-692.1653.6082.0080.0034.0048.0056.37南京政策成交量70.4670.4681.9973.73離異新區(qū)落戶只可在新區(qū)買112.62112.62150.61129.8081.152-部分銀行停貸86.8675.4061.2273.4983.34104.9493.2763.16158.58州政策成交量59.3459.3457.8366.9571.4157.01首付升；限售48.7748.7755.2457.1054.2358.0617.9728.0744.0442.9223.2455.70政策成交量無(wú)錫51.6255.1359.4572.24政策成交量無(wú)錫51.6255.1359.4572.2466.2055.44杭州126.43141.78184.5866.7658.8349.3936.1167.5539.3066.3160.4541.2445.6854.2047.04143.24131.23112.69114.32111.08122.45政策成交量人才房限售政策成交量政策首付升政策寧波成寧波嚴(yán)查消費(fèi)貸二手參考價(jià)2.5-4.549.0731.8861.74108.49108.4961.2361.934415.16200.49176.2980.680.69利率上調(diào)落戶滿5；贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)；限售3-6181.2670.78181.2670.78142.98136.8559.59.3246.66116.80116.80限售擴(kuò)大；嚴(yán)查首付；二手參考價(jià)1-366.0261.0555.9552.12成都政策成交量30.8130.8142.9137.1242.3561.6841.0124.4931.2528.0948.0448.0435.7169.2166.7366.7338.1544.2038.32贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)2-4.5重慶政策成交量154.84154.84207.85175.00185.51183.08159.54203.00191.00255.00144.0144.00125.00194.75238.00238.00319.00217.00162.001.5-3東莞政策成交量444.3952.3283.13二手限購(gòu)，二套限購(gòu)升級(jí)、限售升級(jí)90.0390.0324.43需要的社加；離異；落戶需半年45.845.8230.9139.2555.12限購(gòu)升級(jí)；轉(zhuǎn)讓限制；搖2-4.581.0086.4877.8774.9277.69100.6728.14西安政策成交量54.1354.1394.94166.51162.00181.00159.92103.00首付提高196.00196.00145145.5282.00處罰代持143.00143.00140.00157.00二手參考價(jià)限購(gòu)范圍擴(kuò)大，落戶滿31-1.5158.00141.62143.00除上述城市外，其余城市調(diào)控政策主要以補(bǔ)漏為主，如法拍/離異限購(gòu)等，幾乎沒(méi)有城市像深圳、東莞這樣調(diào)控全面升級(jí)。盡管如此，這些城市市場(chǎng)同樣普遍轉(zhuǎn)冷，2021年3月后成交量下滑顯著，典型的如哈爾濱、長(zhǎng)春等(B類城市)。僅福州、廈門(C類城市)受人口政策利好及2020年基數(shù)較低影響，市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)較好。我們認(rèn)為，各城主要調(diào)控政策與新房成交量走勢(shì)調(diào)控政策并不多(文字部分少)；但2021年3月后成交量普遍下行(單元格轉(zhuǎn)綠)高清大圖見下P202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109放款周期情況長(zhǎng)春政策成交量68.0468.0467.4388.4292.6393.69首付升73.5573.5572.3463.5259.1159.1124.3057.2062.5346.2159.4150.430.2116.28沈陽(yáng)政策成交量125.93125.93148.11157.51147.96137.92首付升，增值稅升，禁首付分期73.0373.0390.7274.5287.4065.00162.78123.681-1.567.0478.1273.2776.20大連政策成交量49.1849.1842.9038.9053.8842.6045.0049.4653.9360.45限售0.5-120.9225.4251.2755.7452.0462.3271.75哈爾濱政策成交量38.2438.2438.5041.7050.8050.8061.4746.6043.8045.362020.0010.7341.4331.7435.7438.6636.502天津政策成交量109.38109.38118.28133.60106.55110.57121.38107.19122.89135.6099.7899.7857.3697.71126.00128.53121.39121.392-放款時(shí)間不確定濟(jì)南政策成交量75.0575.0576.5482.6963.0063.3058.8570.9573.8185.4153.4853.4854.2892.8278.1189.4976.3376.330.5-2鄭州政策成交量76.0976.09106.62101.93104.61106.7586.24101.41120.12201.7613.7813.7845.5388.89141.82121.97114.7887.103北京政策成交量47.6947.6949.3154.9660.5887.7187.0856.1372.2392.9692.2492.2437.5376.1879.3358.9999.5592.31離異0.565南昌政策成交量40.0040.0052.9743.0036.0027.0034.7128.0046.0047.0041.0041.0030.0039.0032.0055.0030.0032.0022武漢政策成交量74.1974.19135.83150.69246.62205.45209.27247.25249.09295.79201.76201.7699.77212.19246.94242.90213.68打新60天內(nèi)一個(gè)樓盤1-2184.05長(zhǎng)沙政策成交量104.34104.34141.61142.28137.44138.47134.96148.49150.75199.62114.90114.9076.45149.99法拍限購(gòu)162.162.48178.06117.881-個(gè)別銀行要排隊(duì)139.42昆明政策成交量75.9675.9693.54104.1479.7895.0598.1389.9092.62111.4257.8957.8937.5483.1964.5467.6774.7651.441.5-2.5福州政策成交量13.6213.6219.5913.6619.8115.5921.9019.1321.7822.34全面放開落戶21.521.5320.4637.9933.0332.7233.0732.031.5-3廈門政策成交量12.3012.3018.9025.0028.0419.2719.6027.5024.7032.80人才吸引人才吸引1-330.6422.6141.5032.6550.1841.8126.23佛山政策成交量116.18116.18119.58144.38117.98111.16132.06143.65131.42148.79公積金額度減少放款時(shí)間不確定114.4663.11141.43111.1111.19119.7296.05112.88南寧政策成交量84.5084.5088.7092.60122.1085.2077.4083.7070.3081.1065.0065.0043.4063.8351.6068.5647.4048.060.5海口政策成交量6.656.6518.0015.0025.0042.0040.0023.0028.0028.0028.2328.2331.6225.4919.2217.9743.6430.011中山政策成交量43.1043.1046.8049.1054.4055.6057.7056.9081.9047.6097.7797.7725.0061.2058.3053.3055.2042.44 1人才吸引人才吸引珠海43.13人才吸引人才吸引珠海43.1344.5438.6743.8949.0056.00政策成交量22.1627.5131.2350.8950.8930.2653.9364.8450.0046.0048.003-4136.20136.2057.68122.53122.13101.55110.2776.69限購(gòu)2.5-4.5惠州政策成交量101.86101.86139.61165.89180.46235.18175.96182.20164.60162.13肇慶政策成交量42.1042.1058.8352.2257.1043.1866.3175.8157.0076.6853.1753.1743.3554.8039.0336.2825.7240.282-2以同樣的方法，我們整理了各城調(diào)控政策與新開盤首日認(rèn)購(gòu)率的對(duì)比關(guān)系，總體結(jié)論與上述一致，詳見右圖，分析部分不再贅述。數(shù)據(jù)供參考以同樣的方法，我們整理了各城調(diào)控政策與新開盤首日認(rèn)購(gòu)率的對(duì)比關(guān)系，總體結(jié)論與上述一致，詳見右圖，分析部分不再贅述。數(shù)據(jù)供參考。202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109放款周期情況北京政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.560.560.710.610.290.410.560.480.510.41離異00.000.410.510.390.240.000.430.440.5上海政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.320.320.430.590.590.540.500.590.780.78離異；增值積分制優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限購(gòu)5年二手價(jià)格核驗(yàn)；利率上調(diào)三價(jià)就低3.5-60.710.000.860.760.860.830.880.38廣州政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.270.270.330.350.520.520.470.620.600.45嚴(yán)查首付/經(jīng)營(yíng)貸各類人才政策收緊二手房指導(dǎo)價(jià)00.370.480.340.450.400.440.570.504.5-8深圳政策落戶滿3；離異；首付升；增值稅升；普宅標(biāo)準(zhǔn)升認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.220.290.440.700.510.770.670.780.65715政策補(bǔ)二手指導(dǎo)價(jià)利率上調(diào)；銀行受監(jiān)管00.130.190.610.820.720.950.840.691長(zhǎng)春政策首付升認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.230.410.390.350.350.480.430.260.130.410.410.010.370.130.410.480.320.040.2沈陽(yáng)政策首付升，增值稅升，禁首付分期認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.570.540.610.490.450.410.340.590.370.550.550.000.550.390.730.520.190.001-1.5大連政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.290.290.380.450.430.240.480.270.340.31售00.300.170.310.470.350.390.550.380.5-1哈爾濱政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.190.190.110.690.240.530.390.470.430.130.260.260.000.630.150.340.540.700.162鄭州政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.650.650.570.590.610.610.630.610.630.440.360.360.390.520.640.580.760.620.223合肥政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.320.320.370.400.400.450.49限售;公積金限制1.5-6南京政策離異認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.510.500.630.370.460.430.580.550.47新區(qū)落戶只可在新區(qū)買00.000.510.510.560.690.570.560.422-部分銀行停貸杭州政策人才房限售離異，優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限售認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.760.750.790.850.770.890.820.750.81利率上調(diào)落戶滿5；贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)；限售利率上調(diào)00.730.920.930.860.840.870.850.873-6寧波政策限售首付升認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.820.780.870.830.740.780.680.850.74限售擴(kuò)大；嚴(yán)查首付；二手參考價(jià)00.740.810.700.000.730.790.700.501-3南昌政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.730.730.600.530.510.500.610.610.390.690.480.480.850.430.000.770.580.900.002武漢政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.440.440.380.500.410.420.460.380.320.41打新60天內(nèi)一個(gè)樓盤00.210.400.430.380.380.360.420.28-2長(zhǎng)沙政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.470.470.550.600.500.620.450.690.570.62法拍限購(gòu)00.790.610.850.470.730.630.770.571-個(gè)別銀行要排隊(duì)成都政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.650.650.610.590.570.570.590.590.540.58贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)00.680.710.710.610.780.530.690.542-4.5重慶政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.560.560.510.580.510.420.390.410.340.410.490.490.340.540.480.890.800.580.341.5-3西安政策首付提高認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.440.540.760.620.710.630.710.770.77處罰代持二手參考價(jià)處罰代持00.630.910.860.960.940.870.870.941-1.5福州政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.260.260.450.510.420.550.370.550.330.65全面放開落戶00.440.170.510.320.400.430.780.641.5-3廈門政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.220.220.470.180.480.340.590.000.510.47人才吸引人才吸引人才吸引00.930.610.840.000.640.680.570.651-3佛山政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.230.230.430.280.210.450.370.190.470.55公積金額度減少00.490.160.160.330.370.440.620.28放款時(shí)間不確定東莞政策二手限購(gòu)，二套限購(gòu)升級(jí)、限售升級(jí)認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.480.680.760.670.630.910.870.810.96需要的社保年限增加；離異；落戶需半年限購(gòu)升級(jí)；轉(zhuǎn)讓限制；搖00.260.940.900.840.790.550.30.002-4.5南寧政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.610.610.690.630.770.670.500.330.370.670.530.530.000.500.220.780.310.260.000.5?？谡哒J(rèn)購(gòu)率0.230.230.180.330.730.590.700.540.700.320.750.750.660.660.790.710.860.870.951山政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.080.080.710.450.370.360.360.470.080.610.770.770.780.300.310.180.460.260.081珠海政策人才吸引人才吸引認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.300.550.540.460.620.610.440.530.550.130.130.340.550.610.650.370.550.493-4惠州政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.580.580.580.600.740.800.810.600.470.74購(gòu)00.000.710.000.630.620.400.500.402.5-4.5肇慶政策認(rèn)購(gòu)率0.240.190.220.470.460.270.150.170.250.170.000.240.170.230.260.190.112-2各城主要調(diào)控政策與二手房成交量走勢(shì)各城主要調(diào)控政策與二手房成交量走勢(shì)有詳細(xì)二手?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)的城市數(shù)量有限，從目前數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量較高的北京、上海、廣州、深圳、大連、南京、杭州、重慶、廈門、福州(A類城市)來(lái)看，總體趨勢(shì)與新房市場(chǎng)一其余一線城市3月后二手成交202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109放款周期情況北京政策成交量1101.061125.39139.00139.00133.85132.00143.08117.011139.011169.66144.144.59104.70179.06165.50165.50154.78165.64128.48離異0.5-2.5上海政策成交量1167.271199.5520200.22207.77215.65228.14203.232231.902289.73離異；增值積分制優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限購(gòu)5年格核驗(yàn)三價(jià)就低4-6331.80134.22265.97155.05169.30216.01183.62廣州政策成交量559.2373.2273.2282.5382.5390.35101.7195.4473.1398.3298.321101.57嚴(yán)查首付/經(jīng)1103.77102.3870.17營(yíng)貸各類人才政策收緊1105.1571.2366.5269.97二手房指導(dǎo)價(jià)3-6(部分停貸)深圳政策成交量559.8164.864.8383.2683.26落戶滿3；離異；首付升；增值稅升；普宅標(biāo)準(zhǔn)升715政策補(bǔ)二手指導(dǎo)價(jià)利率上調(diào)；銀行受監(jiān)管24.5424.5424.15出產(chǎn)證就放104.4889.1571.2140.7245.4654.5053.4631.4051.1338.2423.49大連政策成交量331.9445.1345.1359.0359.0354.4740.8651.0137.21558.84550.612020.5525.3938.1349.1049.1042.6542.5040.53限售0.5-無(wú)法確定南京政策成交量70.6570.6576.3276.32離異92.1192.1148.5987.8277.0877.44人才房限售離異，優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限售83.0883.0877.6671.9274.7964.791101.6187.8171.7486.5489.4773.6773.6769.369.3669.69.8447.7264.06新區(qū)落戶只可在新區(qū)買98.8198.8172.1672.4577.472-部分銀行停貸杭州政策成交量74.2374.2377.2977.2976.9476.9476.4176.41落戶滿5；贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)；限售77.9177.9187.6276.0837.7168.9554.831130.9284.1692.1897.8770.06利率上調(diào)基本停貸43.1443.14打新60天內(nèi)一個(gè)樓盤武漢政策成交量67.667.6696.8196.8175.4375.43339.971-2部分銀行停貸成都政策成交量1107.4499.7799.77121.66121.66146.38139.48146.2883.831114.171124.22112.70112.7075.58124.81135.05118.93贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)重慶政策成交量92.8492.841100.3593.6893.68153.02126.08131.3687.301109.451113.1199.3499.3464.76118.76148.89143.09116.74115.07需要排隊(duì)福州政策成交量16.16.3418.18.4720.3520.3520.4817.8819.5515.3217.17.8419.19.17全面放開落戶小部分銀行停貸23.1813.8713.8726.2027.8023.13廈門政策成交量19.19.6522.322.3928.7028.7032.0628.0325.1520.2226.626.62332.813232.3718.0637.15人才吸引26.3326.3336.54人才吸引1-5.537.5032.92佛山政策成交量27.627.63334.2936.7936.7946.3849.0948.1137.9945.4845.48552.3844.8744.8722.37公積金額度減少無(wú)法確定42.5049.49.7140.18東莞政策成交量14.14.4015.15.3022.222.27二手限購(gòu)，二套限購(gòu)升級(jí)、限售升級(jí)23.923.9511.3815.207.6188.6110.10.87110.885.04限購(gòu)升級(jí)；轉(zhuǎn)讓限制；搖需要的限購(gòu)升級(jí)；轉(zhuǎn)讓限制；搖44.999.157.152.5-4.5惠州政策成交量12.12.9515.15.1218.8118.8122.6726.1925.0119.5222.622.6622.122.1025.7525.7512.3321.2219.6119.79限購(gòu)基本停貸調(diào)控政策與中原二手價(jià)格指數(shù)漲跌幅走勢(shì)驗(yàn)價(jià)中原二手住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)漲跌幅普遍由正轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)調(diào)控政策與中原二手價(jià)格指數(shù)漲跌幅走勢(shì)驗(yàn)價(jià)從中原二手價(jià)格指數(shù)覆蓋的6個(gè)城市來(lái)看，2021年上半年這6個(gè)城市二手價(jià)格普遍保持較高增速(單月增幅普遍超1.5%)。其中，深圳、上海、廣州分別在2021年2月，7月，8月出臺(tái)二手指導(dǎo)價(jià)(上海為二手價(jià)格核驗(yàn)機(jī)制以及房貸“三價(jià)就低“原則)。從參考價(jià)政策政策執(zhí)行后的數(shù)據(jù)北京、上海、廣州2-7月二手價(jià)格指數(shù)月均漲幅超1.5%。8月除廣州外，其余5城二手價(jià)格指數(shù)漲跌幅由正轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)。深圳6月202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109放放款周期情況北京政策漲跌幅0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-0.8%-0.7%-0.2%1.2%0.7%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%22.9%2.6%2.6%2.1%2.9%1.4%離異-0.9%0.5-2.5上海政策漲跌幅11.4%0.6%0.6%0.80.8%0.6%0.1%0.5%1.0%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.6%離異；增值積分制優(yōu)先購(gòu)房限購(gòu)5年0.8%0.8%3.1%3.0%1.9%二手價(jià)格核；利率上調(diào)1.3%三價(jià)就低4-61.5%3.0%1.9%廣州政策漲跌幅11.3%--0.8%-0.5%-0.5%0.7%1.2%0.9%0.6%0.2%0.2%11.0%1.6%嚴(yán)查首付/經(jīng)營(yíng)貸各類人才政策收緊22.3%2.1%1.4%1.9%1.8%1.9%二手房指導(dǎo)1.6%3-6(部分停貸)深圳政策漲跌幅22.4%22.7%22.8%落戶滿3；離異；首付升；增值稅升；普宅標(biāo)準(zhǔn)升715政策補(bǔ) 二手指導(dǎo)價(jià)利率上調(diào)；銀行受監(jiān)管出產(chǎn)證就放2.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.5%1.7%1.5%1.7%-0.8%0.4%-0.2%成都政策漲跌幅0.4%0.4%0.2%0.2%--0.6%-0.9%0.1%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.9%0.1%2.6%1.5%1.1%1.5%贈(zèng)與限購(gòu)-0.4%重慶政策漲跌幅0.8%0.8%0.3%0.3%-0.3%-0.3%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.6%0.6%-0.4%-0.4%-0.5%0.4%0.2%1.7%2.4%1.6%-0.3%需要排隊(duì)放貸時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)對(duì)二手房市場(chǎng)成交影響顯著PartPart2后市預(yù)判房：新開盤認(rèn)購(gòu)率持續(xù)走低020年上半年。新房市場(chǎng)熱度較2021年上半年下滑顯著。29個(gè)重點(diǎn)城市新開盤認(rèn)購(gòu)率(2013年第1周-2021年36周)0%0000推售套數(shù)認(rèn)購(gòu)率新開盤認(rèn)購(gòu)率處于2013年以來(lái)低位0000推售套數(shù)認(rèn)購(gòu)率新開盤認(rèn)購(gòu)率處于2013年以來(lái)低位2283420132014201520162017201820192020202120312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050205120522101210221032104210521062108210921102111211221132114211521162117211921202121212221232124212521262127212821292130213121322133213421352136房：來(lái)訪指數(shù)走勢(shì)低迷2031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049205020512052210121022103210421052106210821092110211121122113211421152116211721192120212121222123212421252126212721